Docstoc

Business Trends in the European Printing Industry

Document Sample
Business Trends in the European Printing Industry Powered By Docstoc
					                Business Trends
                and Overview of
              Competitiveness Issues
                 in the European
                Printing Industry
                      Anne-Marie De Noose


Tallinn, Novtember,                         1
2005                  INTERGRAF
      INTERGRAF
      Confederation for Printing
      and Allied Industries
      Place Eugène Flagey 7
      1050 Brussels
      BELGIUM


      25 member associations in
      21 countries
      4 Associate members
      Secretariat and Member of
      the World Print &
      Communication Forum
                                                    August 2005
  2                       INTERGRAF   Directors Conference Porto




Tallinn, Novtember,                                         2
2005                  INTERGRAF
    The European Printing Industry

                      Western Europe (EU15)
                         90,000 companies
                        700,000 employees
                      82,5 billion EUR turnover


 Figures for EU 25 are still difficult to collect


Tallinn, Novtember,                                 3
2005                     INTERGRAF
              Economica l indica tor for structura l busine ss sta tistics

        Cla ssifica tion of e conomic a ctivitie s - NACE Re v.1.1 - DE 22.2

                           NUMBER of companies
                                              2000           2001            2002
     ge ogra phica l cove ra ge : EU 25
     Belgium                                  1794          1700             1683
     Czech Republic                           4112i        3708ip            5286
     Denmark                                  1736          1569             1473
     Germany (including ex-GDR
     from 1991)                              13584          14680            12934
     Estonia                                   140            153              168
     Greece                                      :              :                :
     Spain                                   15445          14452            14445
     France                                  17114          16962            16766
     Ireland                                   353            357              380
     Italy                                   20400          20320            20269
     Cyprus                                    277            302              316
     Latv ia                                   273            258                :
     Lithuania                                 262            274              291
     Luxembourg                                 86             78               77
     Hungary                                   661           4265             4322
     Malta                                     194            189                :
     Netherlands                              2976           2848             2668
     Austria                                  1045           1010             1088
     Poland                                  11001          10333            11416
     Portugal                                 3055           3116             2988
     Slov  enia                               1282           1413             1133
     Slov  akia                                186            240              245
     Finland                                  1368           1311             1276
     Sweden                                   3951           3835             3683
     United Kingdom                          18937          18814            18777

                                            116120        118479         121684



Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                  4
2005                       INTERGRAF
                      NUMBER of employees
                                 2000       2001    2002
 geographical coverage
 Belgium                        21161    22619     21158
 Czech Republic                         17531p     18118
 Denmark                        16643    15023     14025
 Germany (including ex-GDR
 from 1991)                    196489   191822     186432
 Estonia                           :c       :c       2489
 Greece                             :        :          :
 Spain                          87209    82852      84949
 France                        120978   119698     115796
 Ireland                         8672     8523       7936
 Italy                          99106    98980      93680
 Cyprus                          1382        :          :
 Latvia                          3609     3917          :
 Lithuania                       3145     3363       3515
 Luxembourg                      1141     1143       1140
 Hungary                        16076    21213      23683
 Malta                           1284     1249          :
 Netherlands                    48447    48006      46550
 Austria                        16803    16560      16066
 Poland                         38653    38233      34684
 Portugal                       24588    25259      22857
 Slovenia                        5731     5778       6058
 Slovakia                        5592     6118       5046
 Finland                        13317    13129      12390
 Sweden                         24314    23839      22606
 United Kingdom                186205   179224          :

                               940545   926548     739178


Tallinn, Novtember,                                         5
2005                  INTERGRAF
             How and what about SECTORAL
                  Statistics in the EU ?!
 • Poor and disappointing for a sector consisting
   mainly of SMEs !
 • EUROSTAT is in charge of :
    – establishing classifications (both activities
      NACE & products, CPA, Combined
      Nomenclature),
    – Regulations on collection of statistics,
      centralizing data.
 • Source of data is either administrative (customs
   declarations, VAT returns) OR

Tallinn, Novtember,                                   6
2005                  INTERGRAF
             How and what about SECTORAL
                  Statistics in the EU ?!
 Enquiries
 • The “enquiry” source is the less efficient !
       – Regulation plans for obligatory collection in companies
         employing more than 20 workers; significant loss of
         information for printing sector
       – Companies miss time and expertise to participate,
         questionnaires are complicated.
 • PRODCOM : enquiry on production volume and
   value
 • STRUCTURE OF BUSINESS : data on com-
   panies (number & employment), investment,
   utilization of production capacity
Tallinn, Novtember,                                            7
2005                  INTERGRAF
             How and what about SECTORAL
                  Statistics in the EU ?!

 • Individual national initiatives
       – Belgium : National Bank collects data
       – Printing national federations organize “opinion
         polls” : eg BPIF in UK, Febelgra in Belgium on
         various indicators (order books, paper price,
         sales prices), BVDM in De.
       – Results are produced as indexes, or bulletins



Tallinn, Novtember,                                    8
2005                  INTERGRAF
  Part1 : General economic trends




Tallinn, Novtember,                 9
2005                  INTERGRAF
                          INFLATION RATE
         Annual average rate of change in Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs )



                  1995       1998        2000       2001        2002        2003           2004
EU (25
countries)          3.0       2.1         2.4         2.5         2.1         1.9           2.1
EU (15
countries)          2.8       1.3         1.9         2.2         2.1           2               2
European
Union               2.8       1.3         1.9         2.2         2.1           2               2

Euro-zone           2.4       1.1         2.1         2.3         2.3         2.1           2.1


  Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                      10
  2005                       INTERGRAF
                   1995    1996     1997   1998    1999    2000    2001   2002   2003    2004

Belgium             1.3      1.8     1.5     0.9     1.1     2.7    2.4    1.6     1.5    1.9
Czech Republic         :    9.1        8     9.7     1.8     3.9    4.5    1.4    -0.1    2.6
Denmark             2.0      2.1     1.9     1.3     2.1     2.7    2.3    2.4       2    0.9
Germany                :     1.2     1.5     0.6     0.6     1.4    1.9    1.3       1    1.8
Estonia                :    19.8     9.3     8.8     3.1     3.9    5.6    3.6     1.4      3
Greece                 :     7.9     5.4     4.5     2.1     2.9    3.7    3.9     3.4      3
Spain               4.6      3.6     1.9     1.8     2.2     3.5    2.8    3.6     3.1    3.1
France              1.8      2.1     1.3     0.7     0.6     1.8    1.8    1.9     2.2    2.3
Ireland                :    2.2     1.2      2.1     2.5     5.3      4    4.7       4    2.3
Italy               5.4        4     1.9       2     1.7     2.6    2.3    2.6     2.8    2.3
Cyprus                 :       :     3.3     2.3     1.1     4.9      2    2.8       4    1.9
Latvia                 :       :     8.1     4.3     2.1     2.6    2.5      2     2.9    6.2
Lithuania              :   24.7     8.8     5.0     0.7     0.9    1.3    0.4    -1.1     1.1
Luxembourg             :     1.2     1.4       1       1     3.8    2.4    2.1     2.5    3.2
Hungary                :   23.5    18.5    14.2    10.0    10.0    9.1     5.2     4.7    6.8
Malta                  :       :     3.9     3.7     2.3       3    2.5    2.6     1.9    2.7
Netherlands          1.4     1.4     1.9     1.8      2     2.3     5.1    3.9    2.2     1.4
Austria              1.6     1.8     1.2     0.8    0.5       2     2.3    1.7    1.3       2
Poland                 :       :   15.0    11.8    7.2     10.1     5.3    1.9    0.7     3.6
Portugal            4.0      2.9     1.9     2.2    2.2     2.8     4.4    3.7    3.3     2.5
Slovenia               :     9.9     8.3     7.9    6.1     8.9     8.6    7.5    5.7     3.6
Slovakia               :    5.8        6     6.7   10.4    12.2     7.2    3.5    8.5     7.4
Finland             0.4      1.1     1.2     1.4    1.3       3     2.7      2    1.3     0.1
Sweden              2.7      0.8     1.8       1    0.6     1.3     2.7      2    2.3       1
United Kingdom      2.7     2.5      1.8    1.6     1.3     0.8     1.2    1.3    1.4     1.3
Norway                 :    0.7      2.6      2     2.1       3     2.7    0.8      2     0.6
United States        2.8      3      2.3    1.6     2.2     3.4     2.8    1.6    2.3     2.7
Japan               -0.1    0.1      1.8    0.6     -0.3    -0.7   -0.7   -0.9   -0.3       0
Switzerland                                                                               0.9


  Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                    11
  2005                             INTERGRAF
                        INFLATION RATE
        Annual average rate of change in Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs )


                                                 September 2005

FI     NL       IT       FR      DE         AT         Euro-zone    PT    IE    BE    EL    ES         LU


1.1   1.7p     2.2      2.4     2.6     2.6p             2.6p       2.7   2.8   3.0   3.8   3.8        4.7



                              EU Member States outside the euro-zone

SE    PL     CZ        MT      CY     SK         DK       UK3      EU25    LT   SI    HU    EE         LV


1.1   1.8    2.0       2.0    2.1     2.3        2.4    Aug 05     2.5p   2.6   3.2   3.6   4.9        7.4
                                                         2.4




 Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                              12
 2005                               INTERGRAF
                      Real GDP growth rate
   at constant prices (1995) - percentage change on previous year



                           2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005      2006
EU (25 countries)           3.7    1.8    1.1     1     2.3   2.0 (f)   2.3 (f)

EU (15 countries)           3.7    1.8    1.1    0.9    2.2   1.9 (f)   2.2 (f)
Euro-zone                   3.6    1.7    0.9    0.7     2    1.6 (f)   2.1 (f)

Euro-zone (12 countries)    3.7    1.7    0.9    0.7     2    1.6 (f)   2.1 (f)

(f) forecast



Tallinn, Novtember,                                                      13
2005                       INTERGRAF
                      2000   2001   2002   2003   2004      2005      2006


     Belgium           3.9    0.7    0.9    1.3     2.9       2.2       2.3
     Czech Republic    3.9    2.6    1.5    3.7     3.9     4.0 (f)   4.2 (f)
     Denmark           2.8    1.3    0.5    0.7     2.4     2.3 (f)   2.1 (f)
     Germany           3.2    1.2    0.2     0      1.6     0.8 (f)   1.6 (f)
     Estonia           7.9    6.5    7.2    6.7     7.8     6.0 (f)   6.2 (f)
     Greece            4.5    4.3    3.8    4.7     4.2     2.9 (f)   3.1 (f)
     Spain             4.4    3.5    2.7    2.9     3.1     2.7 (f)   2.7 (f)
     France            4.1    2.1    1.2    0.8     2.3     2.0 (f)   2.2 (f)
     Ireland           9.9     6     6.1    3.7   5.4 (f)   4.9 (f)   5.1 (f)
     Italy              3     1.8    0.4    0.3     1.2     1.2 (f)   1.7 (f)
     Cyprus             5     4.1    2.1     2      3.8     3.9 (f)   4.2 (f)
     Latvia            6.9     8     6.4    7.5     8.5     7.2 (f)   6.9 (f)
     Lithuania         3.9    6.4    6.8    9.7     6.7     6.4 (f)   5.9 (f)
     Luxembourg         9     1.5    2.5    2.9     4.5     3.8 (f)   4.0 (f)
     Hungary           5.2    3.8    3.5    2.9     4.2     3.9 (f)   3.8 (f)
     Malta             6.4   -0.4     1    -1.9        1    1.7 (f)   1.9 (f)




Tallinn, Novtember,                                                             14
2005                  INTERGRAF
                      2000   2001   2002   2003      2004      2005        2006
                                                                     (f)
  Netherlands          3.5    1.4    0.6    -0.9       1.4     1.0         2.0 (f)
  Austria              3.4    0.8     1      1.4       2.4     2.1 (f)     2.1 (f)
  Poland                4      1     1.4     3.8       5.3     4.4 (f)     4.5 (f)
  Portugal             3.4    1.7    0.4    -1.1          1    1.1 (f)     1.7 (f)
  Slovenia             3.9    2.7    3.3     2.5       4.6     3.7 (f)     4.0 (f)
  Slovakia              2     3.8    4.6     4.5       5.5     4.9 (f)     5.2 (f)
  Finland               5      1     2.2     2.4       3.6     3.3 (f)     2.9 (f)
  Sweden               4.3     1      2      1.5       3.6     3.0 (f)     2.8 (f)
  United Kingdom        4     2.2     2      2.5       3.2     2.8 (f)     2.8 (f)
  Bulgaria             5.4    4.1    4.9     4.5       5.6     6.0 (f)     4.5 (f)
  Croatia              2.9    4.4    5.2     4.3     3.7 (f)   4.0 (f)     4.3 (f)
  Romania              2.1    5.7     5      4.9     8.3 (f)   5.5 (f)     5.1 (f)
  Turkey               7.4   -7.5    7.9     5.8     7.7 (f)   5.0 (f)     5.1 (f)
  Iceland              5.7    2.6   -2.1     4.2       5.2     5.2 (f)     4.8 (f)
  Norway               2.8    2.7    1.1     0.4       2.9     3.8 (f)     2.9 (f)
  United States        3.7    0.8    1.9        3      4.4     3.6 (f)     3.0 (f)
  Japan                2.4    0.2   -0.3     1.4       2.7     1.1 (f)     1.7 (f)
  Canada               5.3    1.7    3.2   2.0 (f)   2.8 (f)   2.6 (f)     2.9 (f)
  Switzerland                                                                1.8




Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                  15
2005                  INTERGRAF
   GDP per capita in PPS
   GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS), (EU-25=100)
   Spring 2005 Report to the Council




Tallinn, Novtember,                                                  16
2005                     INTERGRAF
Tallinn, Novtember,               17
2005                  INTERGRAF
June 2005 compared to May 2005
Industrial producer prices up by 0.5% in euro-zone
Up by 0.4% in EU25




Tallinn, Novtember,                                  18
2005                  INTERGRAF
                       Volume of retail trade
      % change compared with the same month of the previous year1, 4

EUROZONE
Books, newspapers and other sales in specialised stores
Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05
0.1          0.8        0.9   -1.3    1.1

EU 25
Books, newspapers and other sales in specialised stores
Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05
1.2            0.9      1.1   -1.9     0.9
 Tallinn, Novtember,                                              19
 2005                     INTERGRAF
  Part 2 : Printing Industry Trends




Tallinn, Novtember,               20
2005                  INTERGRAF
         Trends in turnover as for printing
          industry as a whole in 2004/5
                      Reported increases range from 0.7%


                      (DE) to about 13% (MT) & (ES).

         DK           +3,80%


         DE           +0.7% (after a 10% drop over last years)
                      globally, domestic orders +0.4%, foreign
                      orders +2.5%
         IT           Production +3.8%. Turnover increased by
                      3%, (compared with -0.8% of 2003).
                      Estimated turnover for 2004 : 11771 mln €.

Tallinn, Novtember,                                                21
2005                     INTERGRAF
September 2005

Tallinn, Novtember,               22
2005                  INTERGRAF
         Trends in turnover as for printing
          industry as a whole in 2004/5
          MT          Sales of print/publishing increased


                      significantly in 2003 (+/- 6%) and
                      remained at high level in 2004. Added
                      value /capita followed the same curb.
                      Investment almost doubled in 04 against 03.

          NO          + 2 to 5%
          PT          Print/publishing improved by 5.8%
                      last 12 months


Tallinn, Novtember,                                            23
2005                      INTERGRAF
         Trends in turnover as for printing
          industry as a whole in 2004/5


           SE         Recovery by 1.5% in 2004 (2,244 billion
                      euro) based on higher demand and higher
                      raw material prices.


           UK         Slight improvement in 2004. Sales of printed
                      products were -1.2%, -2.3% and -3.6% between
                      2001 & 2003.
           ES         Production index : 2003: 112.1, 2004:119.4,
                      2005 1stQ 125.8., ie +7%, 13%



Tallinn, Novtember,                                                  24
2005                      INTERGRAF
         Trends in turnover as for printing
          industry as a whole in 2004/5
                 CH    globally stable in spite of some
                      fluctuations

                 FR    After an improvement for the printing
                       industry in the 3 first Qs of 2004,
                       printing activities drew back in 4Q.Early
                       2005 trends remain hesitating, also
                       negatively influenced by higher cost for
                       raw material and transport.

                 Sct   Stable but unsatisfactory

Tallinn, Novtember,                                            25
2005                    INTERGRAF
                                                         Short-term developments in turnover
                                                         for industry as a whole, paper and
                                                         graphic industry.
                                                                                  Source : VSD




                  Industry as a whole   Paper Industry         Graphic Industry



Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                      26
2005                             INTERGRAF
         Trends in turnover as for printing
          industry as a whole in 2004/5
                      Range of decrease : - 0.6% (NL) to


                      above - 10% (AT).
         AT           Production –15.1% (Sold production however –
                      10.8%)

         BE           04.2005/04.2004         -1.71%    in   nominal
                      terms.
         FI           -4%

         NL           2004 : -0.6%         (demand rose by 0.8% prices
                      dropped by 1.4%).   For 2005 forecast : growth
                      2.8%

Tallinn, Novtember,                                                27
2005                   INTERGRAF
     Overview of market segments
                                             NL        CH         BE
                                         as tonnage in value   in value
•Editorial products :                      33%        40%       28%
–Books,                                     14%       7%        10%
–Magazines                                  13%       15%
                                                                18%
–Newspapers                                 6%        18%
•Advertising products (incl
catalogues)                                34%        27%       33%
•Miscellaneous        (incl commercial
& administrative)                          21%        21%       29%
•Packaging                                 12%        12%       ___
Tallinn, Novtember,                                                   28
2005                   INTERGRAF
   Trends in turnover in market segments
                      Nominal values               M arket share   Turnover
 Belgium                                                          change in %
                                                       in %      2004 / 2003
                      Advertising material and            28,09%       +3,21%
                      others
                      Newspapers and periodicals         18,05%       -9,40%
                      Books and brochures                10,14%       +8,29%
                      Services (pre-press and            10,22%      +10,81%
                      finishing)
                      Labels                               8,08%      +5,13%
                      Forms                                2,96%      +0,90%
                      Administrative printed               2,24%     +10,92%
                      documents
                      Commercial catalogues               4,72%       +5,34%
                      Other printed documents            15,50%      -12,04%
                      TOTAL                             100,00%       -0,46%


Tallinn, Novtember,                                                         29
2005                  INTERGRAF
   Trends in turnover in market segments

  DK          Books & .leaflets increased while magazines and
              periodicals decreased


  DE          Improved trends in advertising market influenced
              positively several market segments (detailed table)


  NL          Significant differences between the market segments
              : newspapers –9%, stationary printing +9%. Printers
              of packaging and advertising material +1%.


Tallinn, Novtember,                                                 30
2005                    INTERGRAF
                                                              Comparison
                      Market segments in million €            % chagnes against previous
                                                       2004         2002       2003       2004
                      Advertising material            5.568   – 4,7      – 5,6      + 0,3
                      Catalogues                      1.036   – 3,6      – 10,9     + 2,2
                      Posters                           398   – 5,8      – 5,9      + 1,8

Trends in             Commercial reports
                      other printed products and
                      Administrative
                                                         65
                                                      4.069
                                                              + 5,5
                                                              – 5,1
                                                                         – 10,2
                                                                         – 4,1
                                                                                    – 5,0
                                                                                    – 0,2
                      commercial           printed

 turnover             products
                      Security printing
                                                      2.066
                                                        381
                                                              –
                                                              –
                                                                  10,2
                                                                  28,9
                                                                         –
                                                                         –
                                                                             9,0
                                                                             1,1
                                                                                    –
                                                                                    –
                                                                                        1,6
                                                                                        3,7
                      Tickets & certificates             43   –   21,3   +   7,6    +   8,8

    in                Business forms                    547   –   9,6    –   10,7   –   5,8

                      other commercial products       1.095   –   1,7    –   11,1   +   1,1

  market              Magazines
                      Newspapers and free
                      Daily newspapers
                                                      1.989
                                                      1.799
                                                      1.099
                                                              –
                                                              –
                                                              –
                                                                  1,4
                                                                  4,3
                                                                  2,5
                                                                         –
                                                                         –
                                                                         –
                                                                             4,7
                                                                             7,9
                                                                             7,8
                                                                                    +
                                                                                    +
                                                                                    +
                                                                                        0,9
                                                                                        2,0
                                                                                        1,0

segments              Weekly newspapers
                      Free sheets &
                      advertisment newspapers
                                                        285   –

                                                        415 – 8,8
                                                                  4,1    –   3,3

                                                                         – 11,3
                                                                                    +   0,8

                                                                                    + 5,7

Germany               Books & geographical
                      Directories (telephone and
                      others)
                                                      1.049 – 5,3

                                                        134   –   2,8
                                                                         – 4,2

                                                                         –   8,8
                                                                                    – 0,6

                                                                                    +   6,2
                      Geographical products              40   –   14,9   –   9,4    +   11,0
                      other books                       875   –   5,2    –   3,3    –   2,1
                      Printed labels                  1.006   +   10,1   +   5,9    +   0,4
                      Calendars & greeting              165   +   16,8   –   12,5   –   17,7
                      Miscellaneous products          1.689   –   1,5    –   0,1    +   7,2
                      Total                          15.331   –   3,8    –   5,0    +   0,7



Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                       31
2005                  INTERGRAF
  Trends in turnover in market segments

 IT         Dynamic market for books and periodicals (+3.1%),
            success of inserts, and successful free sheets. Advertising
            and commercial printing performed well +4.2%,


 SE         Significant differences between the large companies
            (growth rate +3.5%) and small companies (+2.2%) many of
            them disappearing from the market.

            Traditional printing had a modest recovery, while digital
            printing and ancillary services had a relative success. They
            will get stronger as customer will look increasingly for
            "communication solution' from a single provider.


Tallinn, Novtember,                                                  32
2005                    INTERGRAF
  Trends in turnover in market segments : UK
    £ million                                  2002     2003     2002       2003
    PRINTING

    NEWSPAPER PRINTING (SIC 22.21)             -18.8%     4.0%      199.0      206.9
    PRINTING NEC (SIC 22.22)                    -0.2%    -3.6%    9,359.4    9,024.8
    of which:
    Books, brochures, leaflets etc              -5.1%    -3.4%    1,373.1    1,326.0
    Advertising literature                      -1.5%    -5.7%    3,193.8    3,011.3
    Periodicals                                  2.1%    -0.5%    1,213.2    1,207.5
    Security printing (stamps, cheque books,
    banknotes)                                   2.8%   -12.0%      312.1      274.6
    Printing of programmes, tickets etc          6.5%     2.7%    1,438.7    1,476.9
    Registers, account books, receipt books    -14.7%    -2.2%       21.4       21.0
    Notebooks, letterpads etc                  -17.5%   -11.3%       81.6       72.4
    Diaries                                     -6.9%    -0.5%       50.8       50.5
    Continuous business forms                   11.0%   -15.8%      318.4      268.2
    Maps, charts and globes                    -10.0%     3.8%       43.7       45.3
    Postcards, greetings cards                   2.8%    -4.8%      131.2      124.9
    Printing of transfers (decalcomanias)       -6.7%     6.1%       52.7       55.9
    Calendars                                    4.7%     2.9%       37.9       39.0
    Pictures, designs and photographs            7.5%   -13.2%       35.9       31.2

    BOOKBINDING and FINISHING (SIC 22.23)       -3.5%    -4.5%     454.7      434.2
    COMPOSITION and PLATEMAKING (SIC 22.24)    -13.2%     0.0%     464.1      464.1

    TOTAL                                       -1.3%    -4.7%   11,321.6   10,789.0



Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                33
2005                          INTERGRAF
                      Trends in advertising


                     No country reported any longer a general
                                     decrease !!

                 Reported increases range from 1% (DE) to
                   above 10% (ES), (FR during part of 2004)
                   and even 19% in PT. Strong variations in the

 
                   distribution of increased shares, internet
                   advertising improves in all countries.
                 After general increase in first part of 2004, some
                   countries mention a decline at the end of the
                   year.

Tallinn, Novtember,                                              34
2005                      INTERGRAF
                      Trends in advertising

       BE            significant increase over several years :
                      2000 : +8.16%, 2001 : +2.2%, 2002 :
                      +10.36%. 2003 : +10.68%, 2004 : +7.42%.
        DE            +1% (after -13% in 2001/2003). Decline of
                      advertising in newspaper in 1st half 2005
        DK            general increase by 6.5%; free sheets +9.2%, direct
                      mail +6.9%, other printed ad material decreased by
                      12.5%
        ES            +.6.9% as a whole (magazines +10.5%), posters +4%


        FI            increase in 2004 (more in electronic media than
                      printed media

Tallinn, Novtember,                                                35
2005                    INTERGRAF
                        Trends in advertising
           FR         after improvement up to 12% growth mid 2004,



                      decline to 7.6% growth 4Q 2004. 2.5% decline of ads
                      in newspapers, 18.4% increase of internet advertising


           IT         +6.2% or even +7.3% according to diff sources.
                      Increase in press is however 1.6% : +2.4% in
                      newspapers and 0.3% in periodicals.      TV ads
                      +10.4%. As a whole TV reached 56% of all adv
                      expenditure in 2004 and press 37.6% Forecasts 2%
                      growth for 2005
           PT         Investments reach 1.700 million euros, +19.2% last
                      12 months. Distribution: TV 68%, Press 20%,
                      Outdoors 7%, Radio 5%, Movies 0%


Tallinn, Novtember,                                                     36
2005                        INTERGRAF
                        Trends in advertising
           SE         Strong increase in late 2004 & early 2005 : 6.7%
                      Expectations next year are moderate 3 to 4 %

                     increase.


           UK         advertising expenditure picked up in 2003 and 2004.
                      Growth areas were regional newspapers, consumer
                      magazines, directories and outdoor & transport media.
                      Direct Mail has levelled off after some growth. Internet
                      related advertising expenditure has been the largest growth
                      area in recent years. Early evidence for 2005 indicates a
                      cut off




Tallinn, Novtember,                                                           37
2005                         INTERGRAF
                      Trends in advertising
              NL      Market is stable, however a shift from ads in

                     periodicals towards addressed and non-
                      addressed mail.




Tallinn, Novtember,                                               38
2005                     INTERGRAF
AUSTRIA : A comparison between the first 4
months of 2005 & 2004 shows the following
developments (as percentage) • Forecast for 2nd
 Total                          4.1     half of 2005 :
 Total printed press            4.8
 Traditional advertising        5.3   • Total +1.5%
 Advertising brochures            8
 Daily newspapers               8.3   • Print + 0.8%
 Regional weekly newspapers   11.7
 Trade press                    0.6   • Internet / new
 Direct Marketing               0.1     media +6.9%
 Direct Mail                   -2.2
 Magazine                     -4.2
 Inserts in newspapers        -8.9
 TV                             2.3
 Radio                          2.6


  Tallinn, Novtember,                                    39
  2005                   INTERGRAF
                           Switzerland, Source VSD

         Total number of ads               Commercial ads
         Number of pages, variation        Number of pages, variation




                                                      Also mentioned nnon commercial ads



Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                40
2005                      INTERGRAF
                Best performing advertising
                      printed products
   Free sheets                 +
   Direct mail                 + +, but also +- -
   Magazines
       Large interest magazines       -
       Specialized magazines          +++
   Newspapers
       national                -++
       regional                +++
       inserts in newspapers   -
   Posters                     ++
   Directories                 ++

Tallinn, Novtember,                                 41
2005                      INTERGRAF
        Trends in employment level
 Belgium
                             Employees Change on Prepress Printing Finishing
                                        previous & Others
                                          year
                      2000      19.394    -1,07%     3.036    15.683     675
                      2001      19.486    +0,47%     3.049    15.742     695
                      2002      18.958    -2,71%     2.806    15.408     744
                      2003      17.386    -9,04%     2.556    14.069     761
                      2004      17.095    -1,70%     2570     13.749     771

Tallinn, Novtember,                                                      42
2005                  INTERGRAF
                Trends in employment level
AT            -7.8%
DK            Unemployment is generally low , however a bit higher
              than average in printing industry
FI            Employment is constatntly on the decline, and it is not
              expected to increase even when the production is rising
              again.
DE            Drop in employment level was 6% in 2003, and 4.5% in
              2003.
IT            0.2% reduction in employment,
NL            2004: decline by almost 3%. Forecast is further
              regression.
Tallinn, Novtember,                                               43
2005                    INTERGRAF
                Trends in employment level
NO            Unemployment is increasing


PT            -1.2%

UK            Continuation of decline, due to closures and redundancies


CH            Decreasing : 1Q04 35900, 2Q 35100, 3&4Q 34700, 1Q05
              34600 ie 5.4% decrease in 2004
SE            Unemployment was 8% and brought down to 7% due to
              favourable trends. Employment declines however steadily
              : in 2005 some 17000 employed in commercial printing,
              17700 in 2004 and 19000 in 2003.


Tallinn, Novtember,                                                 44
2005                    INTERGRAF
                Trends in employment level
ES            Number of employees 2004/2003: +3.7% (estimate)


MT            Slight constant increase




Tallinn, Novtember,                                             45
2005                    INTERGRAF
      Trends in utilization of production capacity
                 generally improving in all countries !

Switzerland, Source VSD




   Tallinn, Novtember,                                    46
   2005                   INTERGRAF
                                                   Utilisation of Production Capacity

      91.00

      89.00

      87.00

      85.00
  %




      83.00
      81.00
      79.00

      77.00
      75.00
              88/1

                     89/1

                            90/1
                                   91/1

                                          92/1

                                                 93/1

                                                        94/1

                                                               95/1

                                                                      96/1
                                                                             97/1

                                                                                    98/1

                                                                                           99/1

                                                                                                  00/1

                                                                                                         01/1

                                                                                                                02/1
                                                                                                                       03/1

                                                                                                                              04/1

                                                                                                                                     05/1
Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                                                                         47
2005                                       INTERGRAF
     Trends in utilization of production capacity

AT            Strong variations : swinging between satisfactory or hardly
              satisfactory

BE            1999 : 86,7, 2000 : 86,8,        2001 : 84,8,    2002 : 84,3
              and 2003 : 87,0

DK            Consolidation of the industry and specialisation also
              means better utilization rates

FI            Overcapacity is a permanent situation. Large variations in
              the capacity utilization rate between companies

FR            Rate remains tight, situation of order books is fragile


DE            2003 : 81.1%, 2004 82.3% .


Tallinn, Novtember,                                                     48
2005                     INTERGRAF
     Trends in utilization of production capacity

IT            76% on yearly basis, ie 0.6% increase


PT            Improving in 2nd half of 2004


SE            Around 80% according to sample investigation, aggregate
              data quote about 75%.

UK            Printers opinion poll suggests improvement


NO            Approx. 70% (stable).


Scotl         Unchanged excess capacity and week demand

Tallinn, Novtember,                                               49
2005                    INTERGRAF
             Trends in number of bankruptcies
              Mergers of companies continue


AT             Level is stable, about 20 cases/year

BE             66 companies in 2004, the highest figure since 1999.

DK             Still relatively low rate of bankruptcies, but strong
               consolidation trends towards fewer but bigger companies
DE             366 bankruptcies (+/- 2.8%) were recorded in2003, 2004 :
               306 cases ie 16% reduction and back to the level in 2002
FI             About 4-5 % of companies yearly, on average. No major
               changes during recent years.


Tallinn, Novtember,                                                   50
2005                     INTERGRAF
                       Trends in foreign trade

 Austria              2004 : exports +4.1%, imports +1.8%
                      1st Q 2005 : exports –9.7%, imports +1.4%

                      Nominal Exports Change on Imports Change on Balance Change on
                      values    (in    previous    (in    previous   (in    previous
                              millions   year    millions   year   millions   year
                                EUR)               EUR)              EUR)
 Belgium                 2000     1.213   +11,9%       990   +3,1%      223   +79,8%
                         2001     1.235    +1,8%     1.027   +3,7%      208    -6,7%
                         2002     1.216    -1,5%       978   -4,8%      239   +14,9%
                         2003     1.270    +4,4%     1.063   +8,8%      207   -13,8%
                         2004     1.268    -0,1%     1.038   -2,4%      230   +11,7%

Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                51
2005                        INTERGRAF
                      Trends in foreign trade
DK            Exports decreased in 2003, but with big differences
              according to markets and products
DE            Exports improved substantially, + 4.2% and imports
              dropped by 16.9%, compared with 2003 exports +0.4%
              and imports +11.78%.
FI            The value of exports has decreased, value of imports has
              slightly increased. This is a slow trend since 2001. The
              balance of trade is still strongly positive.
ES            Stable. Exports 2004/2003: +0.45% - Imports 2004/2003:
              +0.72%.
MT            Exports reached a peak level in 2003, and was almost
              maintained in 2004.
NL            Stable, and flows are in balance.
Tallinn, Novtember,                                                52
2005                    INTERGRAF
                       Trends in foreign trade

NO           Import: increased by 2,5% in volume and 5,3% in value

IT           in 2004, increase of imports (4.7%) and small decrease in
             exports (-0.9%); balance dropped by -4.3% Most significant
             drop refers to books (-8.2%) due to relocalization, but
             increase of advertising material export (+5.9%)
             The deterioration of export turnover was due to the decisive
             drop in advertising and commercial printing (-9.5%) and to
             the reduction in magazines (-6.4%), while books settled at
             the 2002 levels (-0.8%);
             there was also a reduction in export of albums and picture
             books (-26.5%), transparencies (-21.7%), postcards (-
             11.9%), maps (-9.7%) and stamps (-8%); increase in export
             of printed music (+20.5%) and calendars (+11.6%).
 Tallinn, Novtember,                                                 53
 2005                    INTERGRAF
                      Trends in foreign trade

PT            Decline of trade activities


SE            Levelling of trade deficit gap. Trade deficit is down from
              100 million Euro in 2002 to 60 million Euro. In 2004.
              Imports: 302 million Euros; Exports: 244 million Euros
UK            Exports and imports of printed products increased in 2004. The
              value of exports increased at a higher rate so that the balance of
              trade improved




Tallinn, Novtember,                                                          54
2005                      INTERGRAF
              Influence of New Media

DK            The market has trust in print, but however in shorter runs
              with a pdf-file on the net, which often in the end becomes
              a replacement to the printed matter
FI            Moves are slower than expected


SE            Digitalization has had an ongoing impact on the market
              since a couple of years. Sole web-based information is
              now a reality when costumers want to publicize their
              information.
              The bulk of commercial information is still in printed
              products but electronic services is – in line with rising
              advertisements on the web – growing.

Tallinn, Novtember,                                                  55
2005                    INTERGRAF
              Influence of New Media
NL            Printers offer new media services to customers, who are
              mostly still unaware of potential for their companies

PT            Growing use for all purposes


UK            Companies with digital printing capabilities are increasingly
              moving toward multiple-media output options, developing
              expertise in internet and email marketing techniques. 2005
              British International Direct Marketing Fair featured a Digital
              Print Pavilion supported by the BPIF.
              The BPIF is developing closer relationships with the Direct Marketing
              Association in order to ensure that print, in particular variable data
              printing, is retaining its predominant position in the direct marketing
              sector. The principal annual London trade fair for the printing industry is
              ‘Digital Print World’ again emphasizing the importance of using digital
              printing to engage in and win the new media challenge

Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                   56
2005                        INTERGRAF
       Developments in sales prices
AT            Continuation of unsatisfactory sales prices


DK            Generally decreasing, hard competition and more cost
              effective production
ES            Index of sales prices for printed products (NACE 22.22)
              2003:105.7, 2004:108.1, 2005 1st Q : 110.2


FR            stable/declining and cannot reflect increases in production
              cost.
IT            Persistenly declining


NL            -1.4% in 2004, -1% in 2003.

Tallinn, Novtember,                                                   57
2005                     INTERGRAF
       Developments in sales prices
PT            stable/declining


UK            Prices continue to be under considerable downward
              pressure. July 2005 printers opinion poll reports that 46%
              more respondents experienced price decreases in the
              previous quarter than price increases. Furthermore 30%
              more respondents expect price decreases than increases
              in the next quarter.
CH            Constantly increasing pressure




Tallinn, Novtember,                                                  58
2005                     INTERGRAF
Belgium : FEBELGRA enquiry on business satisfaction
among printers

                           Business trends enquiry among Belgian printing companies
  Answers collected from 31 printing companies      3Q 2004 4Q 2004 1Q 2005 2Q 2005 Est 3Q 2005
  domestic sales prices                                    -8           -6      -10  -9       -5
  trade sales prices                                       -5            9       -8  -5       -4
  production time                                           2            8       -5 -10       -6
  order books domestic orders                               3          18        -6  -5       -9
  order books foreign orders                               -6           -4       -5  -1       -2
  number of employees                                       0            1       -3  -6       -6
  temporary production suspension                          -4           -5       -2   1        2

  Answers give the difference between number of
  companies which gave a "+" or a "-" answer, in
  comparison with previous enquiries             Source July 2005 Febelgra News



 Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                         59
 2005                           INTERGRAF
  Belgium : FEBELGRA enquiry on business satisfaction
  among printers


Major difficulties/Challenges
Pressure on sales prices                  93%
Decline in advertising expenditure        63%
Developments in paper prices              27%
Impact of internet and e-commerce         23%
Local taxation on direct mail             17%

Work force shortage
multicolor press operators           Training initiatives underway among




    Tallinn, Novtember,                                                    60
    2005                       INTERGRAF
    Developments in profitability
           Switzerland




                                          Balance between positive &
                                          negative answers

   Higher             unchanged   lower


Tallinn, Novtember,                                                    61
2005                         INTERGRAF
               Competitiveness issues
DK            Strong consolidation : fewer but stronger
              companies, and specialization in niche products,
              knowledge and equipment.
              Graphical companies invested more in 2004 due to the need for
BE            automation of certain production steps (in order to reduce costs)
              and to offer more services to clients. 2004 was a Drupa-year. The
              companies invested mainly in the automation of certain production
              steps (software, CTP, JDF,…) and in finishing equipment (online /
              offline).
              Books – China In the import figures, increased imports of
              books from China. books for children and art books are
              more often printed in China

Tallinn, Novtember,                                                        62
2005                      INTERGRAF
               Competitiveness issues
           Gradual deterioration of profitability indexes, which started around
IT         1995. Continuing need of high investment in new production
           technology and environmental technologies cannot be transferred
           into sales prices

PT         endangered by increasing costs for taxes and petrol products


           New technology and customer preferences indicate there are
SE         incentives for the graphic industry to continue a dual path, services
           alongside printed products, particularly for companies with financial
           strength and know how.
           Companies with long term business contracts, strong on local
           and regional markets, with good control of quality and
           expenditure were winners in 2004.

Tallinn, Novtember,                                                         63
2005                      INTERGRAF
 Competitiveness / Delocalization
 • Delocalization of print towards CHINA to become
   an investigation area for Intergraf and member
   federations.
 • Request for study addressed to Directorate
   General Enterprise.
 • Aims : finding out about : actors, reasons,
   products etc
 • Total over 89 mln € in 2005, in 1995 it was nearly
   12 mln, ie 86% increase over 10 years.

Tallinn, Novtember,                                64
2005                  INTERGRAF
                                           Source : Eurostat external trade statistics
in €                         Statistical classification :HS2 HS4
         Imports of Printed books, news-papers and others
Trade partner : CHINA
                             2005 Jan           2005 Feb          2005 March           2004 Jan             2004 Feb            2004 March

Reporting Countries
       AUSTRIA                       31,312€           45,087   €        116,241   €           33,904   €          59,510   €       141,715   €
       BELGIUM                    2,228,283€        1,657,834   €      1,598,557   €        3,030,553   €       1,528,691   €     1,844,915   €
       CYPRUS                        21,154€            2,670   €          5,184   €           17,526   €          17,494   €        46,139   €
   CZECH REPUBLIC                   137,366€          573,905   €        173,548   €          102,920   €         167,333   €       106,057   €
      GERMANY                     5,795,607€        4,114,067   €      2,987,116   €        5,127,748   €       4,929,915   €     4,314,098   €
      DENMARK                       518,885€          276,797   € :                           306,148   €         267,334   €       223,497   €
       ESTONIA                       30,602€           16,920   €         23,237   €           21,884   €          22,434   €        19,681   €
         SPAIN                    1,739,420€          994,931   €      1,300,180   €        1,079,158   €       1,256,244   €     1,374,437   €
       FINLAND                      260,412€          231,879   €        254,169   €          331,047   €         153,905   €       294,613   €
        FRANCE                    3,424,692€        2,818,835   €      2,989,404   €        2,150,622   €       2,289,196   €     3,311,273   €
   UNITED KINGDOM                16,251,382€       13,101,985   €     10,413,712   €       10,799,087   €      10,696,146   €    10,051,615   €
        GREECE                      388,888€          320,339   €        436,715   €          151,200   €         150,063   €       123,243   €
      HUNGARY                       174,021€          246,084   €        177,486   €          219,719   €         119,791   €       197,535   €
       IRELAND                       93,127€           29,395   €         29,167   €           48,538   €          37,110   €        14,598   €
         ITALY                    1,154,102€        1,598,687   €      1,408,075   €          689,241   €         811,161   €       568,301   €
      LITHUANIA                      44,415€           19,702   € :                             9,922   €           9,522   €         1,324   €
    LUXEMBOURG                          631€ :                    :                             2,926   €           4,404   €           502   €
        LATVIA                        4,915€              579   €         13,520   €            1,937   €             332   €           953   €
        MALTA                           421€            1,761   €         12,479   €           22,332   €           6,203   €        18,669   €
    NETHERLANDS                   2,078,830€        2,318,816   €      2,048,383   €        1,413,818   €       1,731,019   €     2,070,669   €
       POLAND                       348,610€          254,478   €        198,280   €          184,023   €         385,292   €       319,729   €
      PORTUGAL               :               :                    :                            41,830   €         127,099   €       104,067   €
       SWEDEN                      470,517 €          681,085   €       618,078 €             522,758   €         575,944   €       401,668   €
      SLOVENIA                      50,996 €            1,217   €         8,763 €              21,298   €          14,326   €        40,727   €
      SLOVAKIA                      69,540 €              217   €        17,782 €              50,740   €          24,300   €        10,650   €

EU 25                            35,318,128 €      29,307,270 €       24,830,076 €         26,380,879 €        25,384,768 €      25,600,675 €
                                                   89,455,474 €                                                77,366,322 €

       Tallinn, Novtember,                                                                                                            65
       2005                               INTERGRAF
 THANK YOU FOR YOUR
 ATTENTION!




More information:

INTERGRAF
Place Eugène Flagey
7 (bte 8)
BE - 1050 Bruxelles
Tel: +32 2 230 86 46
Fax:+32 2 231 14 64
www.intergraf.org


    Tallinn, Novtember,               66
    2005                  INTERGRAF

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:8
posted:8/17/2012
language:English
pages:66