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INFORMS-Larson

VIEWS: 5 PAGES: 55

									 Operations Research:
 The Science of Better
                  Richard C. Larson
              Massachusetts Institute of Technology
              Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139 USA
                  President-Elect – INFORMS,
Institute For Operations Research and the Management Sciences
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                 ORSC National Meeting
                Qingdao, Shandong, CHINA
                     October 17, 2004
    Operations Research, co-founded by Philip M. Morse and
      other physicists in World War II, was designed as an
     empirical science using all relevant scientific methods
             to solve managerial decision problems.
In this talk we discuss

•     How INFORMS is emphasizing this aspect of Operations Research (OR),
      using observation, data and analysis to solve real and important problems.
      We provide examples of current ‘hot topics’ in OR research from many of
      the different segments of the profession.

•     Efforts by INFORMS to tell others about the OR profession, now called
      “The Science of Better,” including OR’s implemented accomplishments
      and its importance in efficiently managing organizations.

•     We will then describe some of our own efforts towards bringing OR to
      important urban operational problems, including the management of
      fire, police and ambulance departments; mail delivery; sanitation; and
      more. Much of his work is being made available over the Internet via
      MIT’s OpenCourseWare (OCW) initiative.
         Part I
Working on Real Problems
         Culture and History
• Operations Research
  started as a named
  field in WWII, thanks
  to physicists such as
  Philip M. Morse




                          http://hcohl.shell42.com/morse.jpg
Quotes from
Methods of Operations Research, Morse and Kimball
“Operations Research is a scientific method of providing
executive departments with a quantitative basis for decisions
regarding operations under their control.”

“Operations Research … is an applied science utilizing all known
scientific techniques as tools in solving a specific problem.”

“Operations Research uses mathematics, but it is not a branch of
mathematics.”

“… Operations Research is often an experimental science as
well as an observational one.”

“It often occurs that the major contribution of the operations
research worker is to decide what is the real problem.”
Most Major Advances in Operations
Research Have Come from Work on
Real Problems
• A. K. Erlang, Danish
  telephone engineer --
  invented queueing theory
  in work aimed to
  determine optimal capacity
  of newly invented central
  telephone switching
  centers (1915)


                               http://www.polytechphotos.dk/pics/A.K_Erlang.jpg
Chinese Postman Problem

Mei-Ko Kwan ,Graphic Programming
Using Odd or Even Points , Chinese                                              Quic kTime™ and a
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Mathematics, 1:273-277, 1962.                                            are needed to see this picture.




“When the author was plotting a diagram for a
mailman’s route, he discovered the following
problem: ‘A mailman has to cover his assigned
segment before returning to the post office.
The problem is to find the shortest walking
distance for the mailman.’” (first sentence of this
classic paper)
http://www16.big.or.jp/~nansya/ASCII-art/english/people/postman.gif
        A Facility Location Problem
Hua Lo-Keng and others, Application of Mathematical Methods
to Wheat Harvesting, Chinese Mathematics 2:77-91, 1962.

“…the work of wheat harvesting in the Peking suburbs was
participated in by teachers and students…The objective …was
experimental use of mathematical methods in the selection of the
threshing site most economical of transportation.” (from first paragraph)

Solved the ‘1-center problem’ on a tree (and more).
The Hua Lo-Keng Prize in Mathematics is the highest honor in
Chinese mathematical community. It was founded by Chinese
Mathematical Society in 1992 to memorize the great
mathematician, the late Professor Hua Lo-Keng (1910-1985).
         A Facility Location Problem
Hua Lo-Keng and others, Application of Mathematical Methods
to Wheat Harvesting, Chinese Mathematics 2:77-91, 1962.

“…the work of wheat harvesting in the Peking suburbs was
                             TIFF students…The
participated in by teachers and (Uncompressed) decompressor objective …was
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experimental use of mathematical methods in the selection of the
threshing site most economical of transportation.” (from first paragraph)

Solved the ‘1-center problem’ on a tree (and more).
The Hua Lo-Keng Prize in Mathematics is the highest honor in
Chinese mathematical community. It was founded by Chinese
Mathematical Society in 1992 to memorize the great
mathematician, the late Professor Hua Lo-Keng (1910-1985).
                                                         http://www.valleyviewcampus.org/Thresher.jpg
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Hua Luo keng
                           http://www.math.ac.cn/Chinese/B/Hualg/hua-stud.htm
      OR Solves Real Problems!
• OR’s best theoretical work has been driven
  by real problems.
• We also mention
  –   Linear programming
  –   Dynamic programming
  –   Markov decision processes
  –   Search theory
Today, INFORMS Members Continue the
 Tradition of Working of Real Problems
• And INFORMS has expanded in both depth
  and breadth.
• Yes, we still do focused, traditional OR work.
• But, we also do so much more, as special
  sub-societies have spun out new INFORMS
  journals.
• Take a look………
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                                                                                                                                       Mathematics of
                                                                                                                                       Operations Research
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                                                                                                                                           Marketing Science
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                                                                                                                                           Journal
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      Some Current Hot Topics*
• From Operations Research:
  –   Homeland Security
  –   Call centers
  –   Internet modeling
  –   Revenue management
  –   Game-theoretic supply-chain management



          *Thanks to Dr. Lawrence Wein, Editor-in-Chief of Operations Research
      More Current Hot Topics*
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• From Mathematics of Operations Research:
  –   Internet modeling (heavy tail distributions)
  –   Auction theory
  –   Financial engineering
  –   “Price of anarchy”
       • Aims at analyzing the difference between performance under
         "selfish behavior" and under coordinated optimization. The
         methods here are game theoretic, involving Nash equilibrium
         and competitive equilibrium. Methods of both discrete
         optimization and continuous optimization arise in the analysis.


      *Thanks to Dr. Nimrod Megiddo, Editor-in-Chief of Mathematics of Operations Research
Even More Current Hot Topics*
• From Management Science:
  –   Social networks (particularly as they relate to quantitative models of
      organizational structures).
  –   Risk management (e.g., use of finance and other tools to quantify and mitigate
      risk in a range of practical decisions beyond asset pricing and portfolio
      management)
  –   Data mining (the massive data bases becoming available via enterprise data
      warehouses and CRM systems ensure that the basic idea will remain of interest
      for quite some time).
  –   Strategic planning (much recent work has incorporated economic frameworks to
      consider competition and other high level market effects, but we still need
      research that brings these insights to the decision support level so that decision
      makers can use them in practical settings).
  –   Service operations (call centers and health care have been getting lots of
      attention in recent years, but with the growth of the service sector there are
      many other service industries where analysis could have a significant impact,
      such as primary/secondary education, retail sales, consulting, food service,
      etc.).
              *Thanks to Dr. Wallace J. Hopp, Editor-in-Chief of Management Science
        Part 2
Marketing the Profession
  Marketing the Profession
INFORMS Marketing Committee
Introducing The Science of Better

                           Champion’s
                           Kit poster




                                            Prospect site
Champion’s
Kit site                                    www.scienceofbetter.org


             E-marketing                Executive
               campaign                 Guide
                  poster                to O.R.
II. Campaign theme
Champion’s Kit print mailer
Champion’s Kit site
         Part 3
Urban Operations Research
MIT OpenCourseWare
  Educational Materials from 700 MIT
       Courses Up on the Web



                         http://www3.sympatico.ca/yendred/mitocw.gif
         Our MIT Course,
   Urban Operations Research,
 has been taught for over 30 years!
• Contents now on MIT’s OpenCourseWare
• One of the top ten most visited OCW sites
  (Wired Magazine, Sept. 2003)
• Now available in three languages: English,
  Spanish and Portuguese
• Teachers: Professors Amedeo Odoni,
  Arnold Barnett and yours truly
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,000 hits from mainland China,From WiredFwhere the government denied access to OpenCourseWare until February

     Top 10 OpenCourseWare Classes,
     From Wired Magazine
1. Philosophy 24.00: Problems of Philosophy
2. Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 6.170: Laboratory in Software
      Engineering
3. Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 6.071: Introduction to Electronics
4. Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences 12.409: Hands-On Astronomy:
      Observing Stars and Planets
5. Mathematics 18.06: Linear Algebra
6. Mathematics 18.013A: Calculus with Applications
7. Nuclear Engineering 22.00J: Introduction to Modeling and Simulation
8. Physics 8.02: Electricity and Magnetism

9. Electrical Engineering and Computer
   Science 6.281J: Logistical and Transportation
   Planning Methods (AKA Urban Operations
   Research)
10. Management 15.810: Introduction to Marketing
Source: MIT. Ranked by hits per page and based on a two-month period ending June 30,
     2003.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.09/mit.html?pg=3&topic=&topic_set=
        Urban Operations Research
• Deals with urban
  operational problems
• Transportation
• Health care
• Public Safety
• Sanitation
• Repair and
  maintenance of
  infrastructure




                         http://www.davidm.net/photo/summer2002/prague/subway.jpg
Hypercube Queueing Model

                   1,1,0           1,1,1


       0,1,0               0,1,1




                   1,0,0           1,0,1


       0,0,0               0,0,1
http://www.ci.houston.tx.us/hfd/general/images/ambulance.gif
 New York City
EMS Hypercube
 New York City
EMS Hypercube
The Hypercube                                                             QuickTime™ and a
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Queueing Model:
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• Has been implemented in many
  communities
• Generated many graduate theses and journal articles
• Reduced via approximation a system with 2N
  simultaneous linear equations to a set of N
  simultaneous nonlinear equations
• Incorporates a locate-allocate heuristic to locate
  optimally ambulances
• Is basis for new work in emergency response to
  major catastrophes, such as acts of nature, industrial
  accidents or terrorist attacks.
                         http://www.cs.virginia.edu/~mngroup/hypercast/images/hcube.gif
        New Project:
On-Line Learning Community
 Centered Around Urban OR
• 1,300 users who have emailed us will be initial
  seed values of group
• Will also request participation of faculty members
  from other schools
• Obtaining MIT student volunteers
• Goal: self-sustaining user group and new Urban
  OR problems to frame, formulate and solve
Three types of people in
our community, each
wanting to communicate
among ‘themselves’ and       Learners,
with each of the other       Students
two types of people




                 Teachers,               Practitioners:
                 Scholars                Urban Managers
                                         Consultants
         Illustrative Pop-Up Survey
            Comments: Learners
 I am interested to be an OR student at MIT. I
think that the Urban OR course will be very
useful if applied in Mexico City (the city I live
in). I find this course very interesting.
Hopefully I will have the opportunity to be part
of it in the next future.

I'm presently doing my masters in biz. administration...we
have Operations Research as a part of course material. This is
probably one of the best sites I've ever visited....! (student,
Vellore Institute of Technology, India)
       Illustrative Pop-Up Survey
          Comments: Learners
  In modeling bus routing for pick-up & delivery of crews
  (student, Sharif University, Tehran, Iran)

 I am a doctoral student in the area of Production and
 Quantitative Methods. I intend to use it for my thesis work
 related with networks. (student, India)


I need to undertake more studies in this field to try to
understand the best way to develop my country Congo DRC.
        Illustrative Pop-Up Survey
           Comments: Scholars
 In my consulting or teaching profession (professor, Canada)

I have taken an elective on my graduate studies at
COPPE/UFRJ, …using Larson/Odoni book. My intention is to
create the same discipline in the Administration graduate course
at UFF (and maybe UERJ). I liked very much the Larson and
Odoni book and the hypercube approach. (Professor, Brazil)


I find your Urban OR course as a very well written piece of
literature. It is practical and I use it in introducing my students in
different urban modeling techniques. (Professor, Polytechnical
University of Bucharest)
        Illustrative Pop-Up Survey
         Comments: Practitioners
        I am a software Developer and I make IT's for
        Urban Transport in Monterrey,Mexico

 I am currently working as a consultant in the Manufacturing and
Distribution Market. Although I have quite a bit of experience in
manufacturing and Supply Chain Management, I wanted to get
some additional exposure to Logistical and Transportation
Planning Methods. The coursework presented was a precious
opportunity for improvement. As I am on-call at client sites, I
could never take a structured course. This is a perfect opportunity
to do some studying while on the road. Thank you very much for
the opportunity.
        Illustrative Pop-Up Survey
         Comments: Practitioners
My company is a catering service. We need an efficient logistic,
because our clients are in many places of our country (PERU).
This course can help us on our problems of transportation.

   Studying optimal placement/sizing of Electrical facilities
   (Projects Engineer, Columbia)


 I would like to use the course to guide our post logistics
 service,to teach our staff understanding logistics concept
 better.comments: It's a good guide book, thanks for the book
 author. (Zhongshan Post Bureau,Guangdong Province, P.R.C)
                LINC:
Learning International Networks Consortium




                     Richard C. Larson, Director
What is LINC?

•   The Learning International Network Consortium (LINC) is an MIT-managed
    initiative aimed at creation of a global community of scholars and practitioners
    who seek to use modern computer and telecommunications technologies to
    increase the reach and impact of higher education especially in developing
    countries.
•   LINC is a voluntary e-learning network and resource center connecting and
    building upon individual national and international efforts currently underway.
•   Builds from MIT's recent e-learning initiatives, including OpenCourseWare
    (OCW), Open Knowledge Initiative (OKI) and its experiences in teaching to
    different countries, from Singapore, to South American countries, to Sub-
    Saharan Africa via the African Virtual University.
                     Why Now?
• E-learning is the only feasible way
  enlarge quickly the numbers receiving
  tertiary education in developing
  countries
• Investments in education, not
  underground natural resources, pay off
  in the long run
• Teaching of critical thinking can have lasting benefits, from
  national prosperity to helping world peace
• Large segments of the world have been under-invested,
  including Islamic and sub-Saharan African states
• Many wanting to contribute to such an effort
LINC Welcomes New Members!
     Thank You!




    Richard C. Larson
   <rclarson@mit.edu>


from: http://web.mit.edu/ and http://web.mit.edu/afs/athena.mit.edu/org/o/orc/www/

								
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