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									World Energy Outlook: Near and
Mid Term Projections


Dr. Mark Rodekohr
Energy Information Administration
September, 1999
Near Term Projections

   From the present to 2000.
   Concentration on the World Oil Market.
                            Retail Motor Gasoline Prices*
                                   (Monthly: 1994-2000)
                     2.00

                     1.80

                     1.60

                     1.40
Dollars per Gallon




                     1.20

                     1.00

                     0.80

                     0.60
                                                                                Projections
                     0.40

                     0.20

                     0.00



   *Regular, Self-Service Cash
Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 1999
                                               Monthly World Crude Oil Prices
                               30.00
                                                                                 History                 Cases
                                              West Texas Intermediate
                               25.00                                                                             High
  Current Dollars per Barrel




                               20.00
                                                                                                                 Mid
                                               Import Cost
                               15.00             (RAC)                                                           Low
                                              Price Difference: WTI vs.
                               10.00           Imported RAC
                                              (Dollars per Barrel)
                                               1995       1.26
                                5.00           1996       1.54
                                               1997       2.06
                                               1998(e) 2.37
                                0.00
                                                1996             1997             1998            1999           2000
                                       1996             1997              1998             1999          2000


Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 1999
                                         OECD Oil Inventories
                  3.9

                          1999                                    1998
                  3.8


                  3.7
Billion Barrels




                                       1997
                  3.6
                                                        1996
                                                                    Avg 1990-95
                  3.5


                  3.4


                  3.3
                    Jan    Feb   Mar   Apr    May Jun    Jul   Aug Sep   Oct   Nov Dec
                         12-Month Net Global Stock Change Since OPEC
                                Agreement (2Q 1999 - 1Q 2000)
                           EIG           IEA         EIA STEO       EIA 85%        EIA 90%
                    0

                  -100

                  -200
Million Barrels




                  -300

                  -400

                  -500

                  -600

                  -700

                  -800
                                          2nd-4th Q 1999        1st Q 2000
                  -900
                           Estimates for global excess oil stocks at the end of 1Q 1999
                           range from 200 to 400 million barrels.
Mid-Term Projections

   While all energy markets are discussed
    the transportation sector is emphasized
    due to its importance to U.S. markets
   Projections go through 2020.
World Energy Consumption, 1970-2020



       700
                                                                          612
       600                                                          555
                                                              504
       500                                              454
                                                  403
       400                                  366
                                      344
                                309
       300                284
                    243
              207
       200

       100

          0
              1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020



     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
World Gross Domestic Product by Region, 1970-2020



                          History                         Projections
         40



         30                                       Industrialized



         20

                                                               Developing

         10

                                                                   EE/FSU
          0
           1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020



     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
World Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2020



         300                History                   Projections


         250


         200
                Industrialized

         150                                          Developing

         100


          50
                                                               EE/FSU

           0
            1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2020



      250              History                        Projections


      200                                                   Oil


                                                         Natural Gas
      150


                                                                    Coal
      100


                                                              Renew ables
       50

                                                            Nuclear
         0
          1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020



     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
World Carbon Emissions by Region, 1970-2020


        6.0
                                Industrialized       EE/FSU          Developing
                                                                                                   4.9
        5.0

                                                                                       3.9
        4.0
                                                                     3.5         3.5

                                                   3.0
        3.0                      2.8
                2.4
                                                               2.2
        2.0                                  1.6
                                       1.3
                                                                           0.9               1.0
        1.0           0.8 0.7                            0.8



        0.0
                 1970              1990             1996              2010              2020




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Petroleum Use for Transportation and Other Purposes, 1980-
2020


        60            History                            Projections


        50

                  All Other Uses
        40


        30


        20           Transportation


        10


         0
          1980    1985    1990     1995   2000    2005   2010     2015   2020




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Transportation’s Share of Primary Energy Use, 1980-2020



                     History                          Projections
          60%


          50%

                                               Share of Petroleum Use
          40%


          30%
                                             Share of Total Primary Energy Use
          20%


          10%


           0%
             1980    1985      1990   1995   2000     2005   2010   2015   2020



     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Transportation Energy Use by Region, 1990, 1996, and 2020



                                 Industrialized    EE/FSU       Developing
           40.0
                                                                   33.7

           30.0

                                            23.3                                 24.2
                    20.9
           20.0


                                                          9.6
           10.0
                                   6.8
                           3.3                                            3.3
                                                   1.8
            0.0
                           1990                    1996                   2020




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
World Transportation Energy Use by Fuel, 1980-2020


                      History                           Projections
          30


          25
                                            Gasoline
          20
                                                                       Diesel

          15


          10                                                          Jet Fuel


           5                                                          Residual Fuel

                                                                        Other
           0
            1980    1985    1990    1995    2000      2005   2010     2015       2020




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Transportation Energy Use in the Industrialized Countries,
1980-2020


                    History                            Projections
        20


                                                         Gasoline
        15



        10
                                                       Diesel


                                                                     Jet Fuel
         5

                                                                Residual Fuel
                                                                        Other
         0
          1980    1985    1990    1995    2000    2005      2010       2015     2020




      Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Transportation Energy Use in the EE/FSU, 1980-2020



                        History                          Projections
          1,400

          1,200                                       Gasoline

          1,000

                                                                   Diesel
            800

            600
                                                                  Other

            400
                                                                    Jet Fuel
            200
                  Residual Fuel
              0
              1980    1985    1990   1995    2000      2005      2010     2015   2020



     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Transportation Energy Use by Fuel in the Developing World,
1980-2020

                       History                          Projections
         15


         12

                                                                      Gasoline
          9

                                                                            Diesel
          6


                                               Residual Fuel          Jet Fuel
          3


          0                                                                  Other
           1980    1985    1990    1995    2000       2005   2010       2015     2020




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Transportation Energy Use by Mode, 1980-2020



      50.0
                Road            Air     Other                                         45.2

      40.0                                                           37.4


      30.0                                          28.5

                                 22.3
      20.0   17.3

                                                                                             9.6
      10.0                                                                  6.6 5.8                6.5
                          4.8           3.7
                                              5.0          4.4 5.1
                    2.8
       0.0
                1980                  1990             2000             2010             2020




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Transportation Energy Use by Mode in the Industrialized
Countries, 1980-2020


          30.0
                    Road            Air     Other
                                                                                          24.6
          25.0
                                                                       22.5

          20.0                                        19.2

                                     15.6
          15.0
                 12.7

          10.0
                                                                                                 5.7
           5.0                                                                4.4
                              2.8                            3.2 2.7                3.1                3.4
                        1.8                 2.5 2.7

           0.0
                    1980                  1990           2000             2010               2020




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Transportation Energy Use by Mode in the EE/FSU, 1980-
2020



          2,500
                      Road         Air     Other
                                                                                     2,142
                                   1,985
          2,000                                                      1,895


                   1,495
          1,500
                                                     1,293


          1,000              831               848
                                                                                               738
                                                                               667
                                                               599
                       513               477                                             455
            500
                                                                         325
                                                         223


               0
                      1980               1990           2000            2010            2020



     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Transportation Energy Use by Mode in the Developing
World, 1980-2020

        20.0
                  Road            Air    Other                                          18.4



        15.0
                                                                       13.1


        10.0
                                                     8.0


                                   4.7
         5.0
                3.1                                                                            3.4
                                                                              1.9 2.1                2.4
                                               1.5               1.8
                            1.2          0.6               1.0
                      0.4
         0.0
                  1980                  1990           2000               2010             2020




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Road Vehicle Populations by Region, 1996 and 2020


               North America                                             235
                                                                                      325
             Western Europe                                       192
                                                                        226
               Industrial Asia                      82
                                                      98
                     EE/FSU                    57
                                                     91
             Developing Asia               50
                                                                 175
   Central and South America          31
                                                      98
                 Middle East         16
                                           47
                        Africa       16
                                          43                                   1996    2020

                                 0        50        100    150   200    250    300    350   400




      Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Annual Energy Use Per Capita in the Transportation Sector,
by Region, 1980, 1996, and 2020


       14.0    Industrialized          EE/FSU                 Developing
                           12.1
       12.0

       10.0          9.2

         8.0   7.7


         6.0

         4.0
                                      2.7         2.9
         2.0                                1.6                       1.4
                                                        0.5     0.7
         0.0
               1980 1996 2020        1980 1996 2020     1980 1996 2020



     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Motorization in Selected Countries and Regions, 1995


                       Industrialized                                Nonindustrialized

          1,000


            800                               767
                                                                Average World = 115
                                     617
            600             535
                   481

            400


            200
                                                                                          128
                                                                                   90
                                                                            52
                                                          15       22
              0
                   United   Japan Australasia United   Developing Africa   Middle  Latin  EE/FSU
                  Kingdom                     States      Asia              East  America




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Motorization Rates in Selected Regions and Countries, 1996
and 2020


       United States                                                             797
          Australasia                                                    691
              Canada                                                     686
                Japan                                                 638
            Germany                                                  626
               France                                                 636
     United Kingdom                                                587
         South Korea                                        422
     Eastern Europe                             287
               Mexico                                 348               1996     2020
                  FSU                   190
                Brazil                    226
          Middle East             103
                Africa       32
     China and India         39
                         0          200               400         600          800      1000




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Motorization Trends in Selected Industrialized Countries,
1980-2020

                        History                          Projections
             1,000

                                                           United States
              800
                                                            Canada

              600
                                                                 United Kingdom
                     Japan
              400                                      Netherlands


              200


                 0
                 1980    1985     1990   1995   2000     2005   2010   2015   2020




      Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Motorization Trends in Selected Developing Countries, 1980-
2020


            500        History                        Projections

                                                        South Korea
            400


            300


            200                                                     Brazil


            100                                                              Turkey
                                                               China
                                                       India

              0
               1980    1985      1990   1995   2000   2005     2010    2015    2020




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
Vehicle Population in Three Economic Growth Cases, 2020



            600
                      Low Economic Growth                                           534
            500       Reference Case
                      High Economic Growth
                                                                              407
            400

            300                                                         278
                                218
                          175                     191
            200
                                            142
                    118                                           124
                                      101                    90
            100                                         60

               0
                    Developing          Latin           Middle East       Total
                      Asia             America          and Africa      Developing




     Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
EIA’s Outlook for the International Transportation Sector

  The transportation sector increases its share of world oil use over the next
  two decades. By 2020, transportation accounts for 51 percent of total oil
  consumption worldwide.

  Road vehicles maintain a dominant share of transportation energy use over
  the forecast, but air travel is the fastest growing mode of transportation.
  Energy use for air travel rises 3.7 percent per year between 1996 and 2020,
  compared to 2.4 percent per year for road energy use.

  The world population of road vehicles passes 1.1 billion by 2020, 425 million
  above the 1996 level.

  Highest grow rates of motor vehicle fleets are expected to occur in developing
  Asia and Central and South America which are projected to account for 52
  percent of the increase in the world's vehicle population.

								
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