ProjAvgHHSize_2008-2023

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					Projected Average Household Size by Local Government District, 2008-2023



                                      Projected Average Projected Average Projected Average
                                       Household Size    Household Size    Household Size
                                             2008              2009              2010
LGD Code           LGD Name           ProjAvHHSize_d08    ProjAvHHSize_d09    ProjAvHHSize_d10
95AA               Antrim                          2.63                2.61                2.60
95BB               Ards                            2.41                2.40                2.39
95CC               Armagh                          2.82                2.81                2.79
95DD               Ballymena                       2.52                2.51                2.50
95EE               Ballymoney                      2.65                2.63                2.62
95FF               Banbridge                       2.59                2.57                2.56
95GG               Belfast                         2.27                2.26                2.24
95HH               Carrickfergus                   2.39                2.37                2.35
95II               Castlereagh                     2.32                2.31                2.30
95JJ               Coleraine                       2.43                2.42                2.40
95KK               Cookstown                       2.83                2.81                2.79
95LL               Craigavon                       2.51                2.49                2.48
95MM               Derry                           2.71                2.69                2.68
95NN               Down                            2.65                2.64                2.62
95OO               Dungannon                       2.80                2.79                2.77
95PP               Fermanagh                       2.65                2.64                2.63
95QQ               Larne                           2.36                2.35                2.33
95RR               Limavady                        2.80                2.78                2.77
95SS               Lisburn                         2.57                2.56                2.55
95TT               Magherafelt                     2.92                2.90                2.89
95UU               Moyle                           2.55                2.53                2.52
95VV               Newry and Mourne                2.86                2.85                2.84
95WW               Newtownabbey                    2.41                2.40                2.39
95XX               North Down                      2.31                2.30                2.28
95YY               Omagh                           2.78                2.76                2.74
95ZZ               Strabane                        2.79                2.78                2.76

Northern Ireland                                   2.53                2.52                2.51
Projected Average Projected Average Projected Average Projected Average Projected Average
 Household Size    Household Size    Household Size    Household Size    Household Size
       2011              2012              2013              2014              2015
ProjAvHHSize_d11    ProjAvHHSize_d12    ProjAvHHSize_d13    ProjAvHHSize_d14    ProjAvHHSize_d15
             2.59                2.58                2.56                2.55                2.54
             2.38                2.36                2.35                2.34                2.33
             2.78                2.77                2.76                2.75                2.74
             2.49                2.47                2.46                2.45                2.44
             2.60                2.58                2.56                2.55                2.53
             2.54                2.52                2.51                2.49                2.48
             2.23                2.22                2.20                2.19                2.18
             2.33                2.31                2.29                2.28                2.27
             2.28                2.27                2.25                2.24                2.23
             2.39                2.37                2.35                2.33                2.31
             2.77                2.75                2.73                2.72                2.70
             2.46                2.45                2.44                2.42                2.41
             2.66                2.64                2.63                2.61                2.60
             2.60                2.58                2.56                2.54                2.53
             2.76                2.75                2.74                2.73                2.73
             2.62                2.60                2.59                2.58                2.57
             2.32                2.30                2.28                2.27                2.26
             2.75                2.73                2.71                2.69                2.67
             2.53                2.51                2.50                2.48                2.47
             2.88                2.86                2.85                2.83                2.82
             2.50                2.49                2.47                2.46                2.44
             2.83                2.82                2.81                2.80                2.79
             2.38                2.37                2.35                2.34                2.33
             2.27                2.26                2.25                2.23                2.22
             2.72                2.70                2.68                2.67                2.65
             2.75                2.73                2.70                2.69                2.67

             2.49                2.48                2.47                2.45                2.44
Projected Average Projected Average Projected Average Projected Average Projected Average
 Household Size    Household Size    Household Size    Household Size    Household Size
       2016              2017              2018              2019              2020
ProjAvHHSize_d16    ProjAvHHSize_d17    ProjAvHHSize_d18    ProjAvHHSize_d19    ProjAvHHSize_d20
             2.52                2.51                2.50                2.49                2.47
             2.32                2.31                2.30                2.29                2.28
             2.72                2.72                2.71                2.70                2.70
             2.43                2.41                2.40                2.39                2.38
             2.51                2.50                2.49                2.47                2.46
             2.46                2.45                2.44                2.43                2.41
             2.17                2.16                2.15                2.14                2.13
             2.25                2.24                2.23                2.21                2.20
             2.21                2.20                2.19                2.18                2.17
             2.29                2.28                2.26                2.25                2.23
             2.69                2.68                2.67                2.66                2.64
             2.41                2.40                2.39                2.38                2.37
             2.58                2.57                2.56                2.55                2.54
             2.51                2.50                2.49                2.48                2.47
             2.72                2.71                2.71                2.70                2.69
             2.56                2.55                2.54                2.53                2.52
             2.25                2.24                2.24                2.23                2.22
             2.65                2.64                2.62                2.61                2.59
             2.46                2.44                2.43                2.42                2.41
             2.81                2.80                2.79                2.78                2.77
             2.43                2.42                2.41                2.41                2.40
             2.79                2.78                2.77                2.77                2.76
             2.33                2.32                2.31                2.30                2.29
             2.21                2.20                2.19                2.18                2.17
             2.64                2.62                2.61                2.60                2.59
             2.66                2.64                2.63                2.62                2.61

             2.43                2.42                2.41                2.40                2.39
Projected Average Projected Average Projected Average
 Household Size    Household Size    Household Size
       2021              2022              2023
ProjAvHHSize_d21    ProjAvHHSize_d22    ProjAvHHSize_d23
             2.46                2.45                2.43
             2.27                2.25                2.24
             2.69                2.68                2.67
             2.37                2.36                2.35
             2.44                2.43                2.41
             2.40                2.38                2.36
             2.12                2.10                2.09
             2.19                2.18                2.16
             2.16                2.15                2.13
             2.21                2.20                2.18
             2.63                2.62                2.60
             2.36                2.35                2.33
             2.52                2.51                2.49
             2.45                2.44                2.43
             2.68                2.67                2.66
             2.51                2.50                2.49
             2.21                2.20                2.19
             2.58                2.56                2.54
             2.39                2.38                2.36
             2.76                2.75                2.74
             2.39                2.38                2.37
             2.75                2.74                2.73
             2.28                2.27                2.26
             2.16                2.15                2.13
             2.58                2.56                2.55
             2.60                2.59                2.57

             2.38                2.37                2.36
National Statistics Theme:   Population and Migration         Year of Data
Data Subset:                 Population                       2008-2023

                             Projected Average Household
Dataset Title:               Size: 2008-2023

Coverage:                    Local Government District        Variables:
                                                              Projected number of
Source:                      NISRA                            households
                             Census Customer Services,
                             McAuley House, 2-14 Castle St,
                             Belfast, BT1 1SA. Tel: 028
                             90348160;
                             Census.nisra@dfpni.gov.uk
Contact:
National Statistics Data?   Yes
Description of Data
Projections of numbers of average household size by LGD based on 2008 population

Time Period
2008-based projections up to 2023, to be updated every two years in line with
population projections.


Details of the information held on this dataset are outlined below:

Methodology

The 2008-based household projections are a revision of the 2006-based projections.
The methodology used for the 2002-based projections consisted of applying age-sex
specific household membership probabilities to the population projections. These
probabilities were taken from the 1991 and 2001 Censuses; the trend in probabilities
between these two years formed the basis of projected probabilities for 2002 onwards.
Planned policy changes which may influence household formation have not been taken
into account. The methodology is described in detail in the NISRA research report
published in January 2005: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp29.htm.

A similar methodology was used for the 2006-based household projections. However,
Recent demographic evidence suggests that some trends observed between the 1991
a few changes were made which are described in the next few paragraphs.
and 2001 Census are changing. In particular, fertility levels have increased since 2000
and NISRA consider that it is no longer appropriate simply to project forward the 1991-
2001 household membership probabilities for children. In line with the approach taken
in the population projections, these probabilities have been held constant at their
2001 levels. The main effect of this is that the numbers of large households, in
particular those with 6 persons or more, are now projected to be broadly stable at
around 29,000 whereas in the previous projections they were projected to decline.
The basic household projections methodology projects forward 1991-2001 Census
trends separately for a number of population sub-groups. Inevitably, especially for
longer-term projections, the projections for some population sub-groups are
contradictory. For example, differences in the projected mortality trends for males and
females, when linked to trends in Census based household membership probabilities,
led to divergence in the projected numbers of elderly males and elderly females living
in two-person households. These numbers were constrained to be similar.
The above methodology is replicated for each Local Government District to produce
sub-regional household projections over the period 2008 to 2023. The results were
scaled by household type and size to ensure that the aggregate sub-regional
projections match the Northern Ireland household projections.

Geographic Referencing
The datasets used to calculate the mid-year estimates (births and deaths files) were
created using the August 2007 CPD and missing postcodes were reallocated according
to the home address district of the mother/deceased.

Quality Issues
The methodology was subjected to a peer review process and quality checks were
carried out internally on all data.

				
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