wc by hedongchenchen


									            Winds of Change
 “The US has entered a new energy era,
  ending a century of rising carbon
  emissions”  way too soon to know
 2008 decreases:
     5% less oil (true)
     1% less coal (true)
     3% lower carbon emissions (true)
     All good news …
                But only if
 Those rates sustain themselves over the
  next 20 years!
 Yes demand is falling because of
  economic conditions – do we really expect
  this to continue?
 102 wind farms  8400 Megawatts of
  electricity generating capacity  but is this
  a little or a lot?
            Wind and Solar
 “300,000 MW” of wind projects await
  access to the grid  how do you know; in
  principle 3 TW await access
 Solar Cell Installations growing at 40% a
  year  sounds good, but is this fast
  enough for solar to effectively replace coal
  fired electricity?
 “Gains” in electric/plug-in hybrid vehicles
  depends critically on source of electricity
 At 52% coal fired electricity, nationally,
  there is little to no gain and in fact, in
  principle, we would have to build new
  (coal) generation to charge up EVs  that
  would be beyond stupid
        Big Generalizations
 “Civilization is in Trouble”
 When is “civilization” not in trouble …?
 China’s strategy is “changing fast”  how
  would anyone know? China is still building
  a dirty coal plant each week … until that
  stops, there is no change.
         A flawed premise?
 “The countries that cut carbon emissions
  fastest will have a competitive advantage”
 Why?
 Does anyone really believe this?
 Competitive advantage in what context?

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