Chinas Rise by dfhdhdhdhjr


									CHINA´S RISE
Is the economic rise of china, a
  threat to the western world?

                  Joseph Nye: “If we
                  treat China as the
                  enemy, it will become
                  the enemy because of
                  how it perceives what
                  we do.”
Economical Threat?
• China's economy has grown at an average rate of 10 percent per
  year for the last fifteen years, the highest growth rate in the world

• The staggering growth has lifted hundreds of millions out of
  poverty and transformed an agricultural society into one of the
  world's most dynamic, industrial markets.

• Total trade in 2004 was more than $1.1 trillion, making China the
  world's third-largest trading nation, after the United States and

• China today has the greatest openness to trade of any large

• The United States is one of China's largest trading partners, and the
  two countries have managed their complex trade relationship: But
  tensions are still rising among U.S. officials over the U.S. trade
  deficit with China, $162 billion in 2004.
        The talk about Energy…
•   China's massive economic growth has caused a corresponding spike in its
    energy needs. Although much of the international world is focusing on
    China's increased consumption of oil, most of China's economy is actually
    run on coal. Some 67 percent of China's energy needs are met by coal,
    while only 24 percent of its energy consumption is oil.

•   China imported 117 million tons of oil last year, while Japan imported 200
    million tons, and the Untied States and Europe imported 500 million tons
    each, according to the Chinese State Information Center.

•   China has invested more than $8 billion in Sudan, which now supplies over
    7 percent of the nation's oil. Some 4,000 unofficial Chinese forces
    reportedly protect those resources. China has sunk another $70 billion into
    Iran's oil and gas industry, which now supplies 11 percent of China's energy
Increases its influence
• China and the United States are leading efforts to prevent North
  Korea from developing nuclear weapons.

• China is actively pursuing a foreign policy of "peace and development
  to bring harmony, security, and prosperity to all," the official Xinhua
  News Service

• In 1971, China had diplomatic relations with sixty countries; today,
  that number is 160. It In April 2005 alone, they visited Brunei,
  Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and

• Chinese officials have actively wooed new friends and allies.

• With its confident new diplomatic posture, China is becoming more
  assertive. Recently, the SCO pushed the United States to withdraw
  its troops from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Why the US sees china as a threat?

 First, different logics cultural factors
Three ideological and have been
The reason for American concern mainly
arises Chinato hegemonic status in the
 make from a threat.
constructed its substantiate the "China
 Second, geopolitical ideological
world politics and the and geoeconomic
threat" thesis.
incompatibility of China with the Western
value system.
 Third, the collapse of China.
          China's Point of View

• First, China's development depends upon and in return
  will contribute to the world peace;
• Second, China will resort to peaceful means for
• Third, China's development will rely more on its own
  resources and market;
• Fourth, China is prepared for a long-term process of
  hard work, even several generations, for economic
• Finally, even as China has achieved its economic
  development, it will not seek hegemony in the world or
  come out as a threat to any country.
         Military threat?
•Beijing's official estimate of its military
spending is currently between $30 billion
          A war with any country
          billion dollars.
and $35 including the United States
•Many independent analysts put the real
          would threaten China's two
          $50 billion to priorities,
figure at greatest policy $65 billion.
•The Pentagon's estimates, however,
          continuing strong economic
          growth and maintaining
range from $70 billion to a high of $105
billion per year. social stability.
       But what about the US?
• In comparison, the
  U.S. defense budget
  for 2006 was about
  $420 billion (PDF),
  nearly half of the total
  global expenditure on
  defense, and roughly
  equal to the defense
  spending of the rest
  of the world
 China As A Military
and Political Threat

   A Second Cold War?
    Reasons for Distrust
   Incompability with western ideology?
   The clash of civilizations? (‘the unholy
    alliance between the islamic and
    Confucian cultures?’)
   US hegemony threatened: recent Sino-
    Russian friendship
     The more legitimate
     reasons for distrust
   Recent increase in China’s military
   Chinese attempts to buy US Oil
    Reserves (CNOOC – Unocal)
   Discouraging neibouring countries from
    harboring US bases (Uzbek. SCO)
   Chinese relationships with “problem
    countries”: Iran, Sudan, and Venezuela
       Better reasons for
        future distrust
   The establishment of the "Joint Statement of
    the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative
   US-Japanese efforts to "encourage the
    peaceful resolution of issues concerning the
    Taiwan Strait through dialogue."
   Oil
   The Containment Policy
   Assertive Nationalism – “Century of Shame”
   Democracy, or lack thereof?
         At the moment
   2,900,000 men
   300-450 nuclear missiles (can produce +2500)
   Long- and mid-range missiles (8000km,
   Total expenditure: 4% of U.S., 25% of Japan…
    But growing by two digits every year
   Though significantly weaker in absolute terms,
    critics suspect that China may prove stronger
    in relative terms
   高技術條件下局部戰爭
   大中華圈 .. The scary bit
      The repercussions
   Taiwan?
   North Korea?
   Another Arms Race?
   Loss of a huge market
   Tension around the eastern borders
    (Indian Armed Forces)
   Military or Environmental/Demographic
• China suffered several severe acts of
  aggression at the hands of the Japanese.
• Currently Japan and China still haven’t
  developed a framework to solve their
  territorial disputes and their relationship
  has reached a low point.
• The Chinese often suspect that U.S. and
  Japan are the originators of a variety of
  "China threat" arguments.
• One of China’s principle of guiding
  of "China's peaceful rise,“ is
  neglecting Japan.
• As China has successfully managed
  relationships with the sole
  superpower, the second-tier
  strategic partners, and neighbouring
  countries, China is able to afford to
  ignore Japan and occasionally
  show some toughness.
• The official New China News
  Agency described the joint
  declaration as "unprecedented"
  and quoted a senior foreign ministry
  official as saying that China
  "resolutely opposes the United States
  and Japan in issuing any bilateral
  document concerning China's
  Taiwan, which meddles in the
  internal affairs of China and hurts
  China's sovereignty."
• Taiwanese are descendants of
  Chinese. The people who arrived in
  Taiwan around 1945 came from
• In 1624, Dutch traders first claimed it
  their island for trade between China
  and Japan. Later on the Spanish
  settled there until they got kicked
• “Taiwan has developed steadily into
  a major international trading power
  with nearly $427 billion in two-way
  trade (2006) and the world's 17th
  largest economy.”
• From 1949 until 1991, the authorities
  on Taiwan claimed to be the
  legitimate government of all of
• China replaced the United States as
  Taiwan's largest trade partner in
 Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region
• U.S. Exports to Hong Kong=17.8 billion
  dollars (2006)
         » 31.9 billion (2005)

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