arbitrage

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```					Arbitrage calculator
Arbitrage refers to a wager where you end up betting on all possible outcomes of an event and are guaranteed to make a profit
The term comes from the stock market, where 'futures' may be sold for more than they were bought for, well before the actual p
In gambling on sporting events, it's an extreme form of 'hedging', where, when you've bet on what you hope will happen,
you also bet on other outcomes to reduce your risk

The point of these sheets is to let you try the effect of various bets as the market moves, to help decide whether to make them

Ideally, you find separate bookies offering different odds so that you make all the bets at once and walk away with your guarant
In practise, you decide which way you think the market will move, make a bet,
wait for the market to move, then make another bet on a different outcome, and so on.
If the market moves the wrong way, you find out how Nick Leeson felt…

Betting is the traditional punter's role - you put up X quid and get X*offered_odds back from the bookie.
Laying is the traditonal bookie's role - you lay X quid from some punter and if he wins you pay him X*offered-odds
So with betting you might lose X or make X*something, with laying you might make X or lose X*something
In practise, if you lay the same as you bet at the same odds, you end up even.
If you lay the same as you bet, but the lay is at shorter odds, you make a profit if the bet wins and are even if it doesn't.
If you lay more than you bet, you can make money whatever happens, but the difference in the bet and lay odds has to be right

The simplest approach is to pick one outcome of some event, bet (or lay) it, wait for the market to move, then lay (or bet) it. Job
see the "1way (bet&lay)" sheet
Or, if you can't get your head round laying, try betting all the outcomes as the market moves.
see the "2way (bet only)" and "3way (bet only)" sheets
If you fancy laying - very popular lately -
see the "2way (lay only)" and "3way (lay only)" sheets
Or go mad and use the bet&lay sheets…
The 2way sheets are for events where a draw isn't possible. Use the 3 way sheets for those.

The sheets expect the odds expressed in the 'decimal' form: 3 would be odds of 2:1, 3.5 would be 5:2
ie. It's the odds to 1, but inclusive of stake - it’s the total return
and are guaranteed to make a profit.
re bought for, well before the actual product even exists.
on what you hope will happen,

o help decide whether to make them

nce and walk away with your guaranteed profit.

pay him X*offered-odds
se X*something

ns and are even if it doesn't.
n the bet and lay odds has to be right.

arket to move, then lay (or bet) it. Job done.
CLEAR
1 way (bet&lay)
Trial            Trial             Bet succeeds Bet fails
stakes           odds              (lay fails)      (lay succeeds)
Betting            0 at         1 gives                  0.00            0.00 profit/loss
Laying             0 at         1 gives                  0.00            0.00 profit/loss
Net for these bets             0.00            0.00

Existing position             0.00             0.00
Accept new position
New position             0.00           0.00
NB Betfair take a 5% cut of any profit
Use when backing and laying a single outcome
It doesn't matter how many possible outcomes the event has

HOW YOU USE THIS
Enter the stakes you want to try and the odds available (or hoped for) in the relevant boxes
When you find something you like and actually make the bet(s), click the "Accept new position" button
You can change the text for X and Y to reflect the actual event
CLEAR
2 way (bet only)
Trial                                      Trial        X wins
stakes                                     odds         Y loses
Betting       0 on               X             at       1 gives                       0.00
Betting       0 on               Y             at       1 gives                       0.00
Net for these bets                       0.00

Existing position                      0.00
Accept new position
New position                        0.00

Use ONLY for events where there are EXACTLY 2 possible outcomes
If a draw is possible, use the 3way page                    NB Betfair take a 5% cut of any profit

HOW YOU USE THIS
Enter the stakes you want to try and the odds available (or hoped for) in the relevant boxes
When you find something you like and actually make the bet(s), click the "Accept new position" button
You can change the text for X and Y to reflect the actual event
CLEAR

Y wins
X loses
0.00 profit/loss
0.00 profit/loss
0.00

0.00

0.00

Betfair take a 5% cut of any profit

he "Accept new position" button
2 way (lay only)                                                                                   CLEAR

Trial                                               Trial            X wins
stakes                                              odds             Y loses
Laying       0 against                   X             at         1 gives                           0.00
Laying       0 against                   Y             at         1 gives                           0.00
Net for these bets                           0.00

Existing position                           0.00
Accept new position
New position                            0.00

Use ONLY for events where there are EXACTLY 2 possible outcomes
If a draw is possible, use the 3way page                                    NB Betfair take a 5% cut of any profit

HOW YOU USE THIS
Enter the stakes you want to try and the odds available (or hoped for) in the relevant boxes
When you find something you like and actually make the bet(s), click the "Accept new position" button
You can change the text for X and Y to reflect the actual event
CLEAR

Y wins
X loses
0.00 profit/loss
0.00 profit/loss
0.00

0.00

0.00

a 5% cut of any profit
3 way (bet only)                                                                                            CLEAR

Trial                                           Trial                       X wins
stakes                                          odds                        Y loses
Betting       0 on                 X                at        1 gives                            0.00
Betting       0 on             the Draw             at        1 gives                            0.00
Betting       0 on                 Y                at        1 gives                            0.00
Net for these bets                           0.00

Existing position                          0.00
Accept new position
New position                            0.00

Use for events where a draw/tie is possible
Or, maybe, for something like 3 horses in a race.                         NB Betfair take a 5% cut of any profit

HOW YOU USE THIS
Enter the stakes you want to try and the odds available (or hoped for) in the relevant boxes
When you find something you like and actually make the bet(s), click the "Accept new position" button
You can change the text for X and Y (and "the Draw") to reflect the actual event
CLEAR

Y wins
the Draw          X loses
0.00             0.00 profit/loss
0.00             0.00 profit/loss
0.00             0.00 profit/loss
0.00             0.00

0.00             0.00

0.00             0.00

air take a 5% cut of any profit

pt new position" button
CLEAR
3 way (lay only)
Trial                                              Trial                     X wins
stakes                                             odds                      Y loses
Laying          0 against                X              at         1 gives                        0.00
Laying          0 against            the Draw           at         1 gives                        0.00
Laying          0 against                Y              at         1 gives                        0.00
Net for these bets                       0.00

Existing position                      0.00
Accept new position
New position                        0.00

Use for events where a draw/tie is possible
Or, maybe, for something like 3 horses in a race.                              NB Betfair take a 5% cut of any profit

HOW YOU USE THIS
Enter the stakes you want to try and the odds available (or hoped for) in the relevant boxes
When you find something you like and actually make the bet(s), click the "Accept new position" button
You can change the text for X and Y (and "the Draw") to reflect the actual event
CLEAR

Y wins
the Draw          X loses
0.00             0.00 profit/loss
0.00             0.00 profit/loss
0.00             0.00 profit/loss
0.00             0.00

0.00             0.00

0.00             0.00

ake a 5% cut of any profit
2 way (bet&lay)                                                                                     CLEAR
Trial stakes                                                   Trial                     X wins
Betting    Laying                                              odds                      Y loses
0          0 on                 X               at            1 gives                     0.00
0          0 on                 Y               at            1 gives                     0.00
Net for these bets                   0.00

Existing position                   0.00
Accept new position
New position                      0.00
NB Betfair take a 5% cut of any profit
Use when backing and laying an event with two outcomes
It doesn't make sense to both back and lay one outcome in one change of position, for "obvious" reasons.

HOW YOU USE THIS
Enter the stakes you want to try and the odds available (or hoped for) in the relevant boxes
When you find something you like and actually make the bet(s), click the "Accept new position" button
You can change the text for X and Y to reflect the actual event
CLEAR
X loses
Y wins
0.00 profit/loss
0.00 profit/loss
0.00

0.00

0.00
NB Betfair take a 5% cut of any profit

on, for "obvious" reasons.

pt new position" button
CLEAR
3 way (bet&lay)
Trial stakes                                               Trial                       X wins
Betting     Laying                                         odds                        Y loses
0          0 on               X             at             1 gives                     0.00
0          0 on           the Draw          at             1 gives                     0.00
0          0 on               Y             at             1 gives                     0.00
Net for these bets                    0.00

Existing position                   0.00
Accept new position

New position                     0.00
NB Betfair take a 5% cut of any profit
Use when backing and laying an event with 3 outcomes
It doesn't make sense to both back and lay one outcome in one change of position, for "obvious" reasons.

HOW YOU USE THIS
Enter the stakes you want to try and the odds available (or hoped for) in the relevant boxes
When you find something you like and actually make the bet(s), click the "Accept new position" button
You can change the text for X and Y (and the Draw) to reflect the actual event
CLEAR
X loses
the Draw            Y wins
0.00             0.00 profit/loss
0.00             0.00
0.00             0.00 profit/loss
0.00             0.00

0.00             0.00

0.00             0.00
ir take a 5% cut of any profit

obvious" reasons.

sition" button

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 views: 4 posted: 8/10/2012 language: English pages: 15