Romney bus tour ppt

Document Sample
Romney bus tour ppt Powered By Docstoc
					BUS TOUR PRESS BRIEFING
August 10, 2012
OBAMA WON ALL FOUR STATES IN 2008 THAT
   MITT IS VISITING ON THE BUS TOUR.


   2008 Presidential        Ohio
                                   Virginia
   Results By State        51-47 53-46
                            (+4) (+7)
   Obama – McCain
                             North Carolina
                              49.9-49.5
                               (+0.4)
                            Florida
                            51-48
                             (+3)

                                              2
          HE BEAT MCCAIN IN ALL BUT TWO OF
            THE LOCATIONS MITT WILL VISIT.
                                              2008 Ballot
          Town                   Date                         Difference
                                           (McCain - Obama)
           Norfolk, Virginia   11-Aug-12    28.0% - 71.0%       -43
          Ashland, Virginia    11-Aug-12    43.8% - 55.6%       -12
        Manassas, Virginia     11-Aug-12    43.8% - 55.2%       -11
  Charlotte, North Carolina    12-Aug-12    32.8% - 67.2%       -34
Mooresville, North Carolina    12-Aug-12    67.5% - 32.5%       +35
 High Point, North Carolina    12-Aug-12    44.2% - 55.8%       -12
   Raleigh, North Carolina     12-Aug-12    48.1% - 51.9%        -4
     St. Augustine, Florida    13-Aug-12    58.7% - 41.3%       +17
           Orlando, Florida    13-Aug-12    36.7% - 63.1%       -26
             Miami, Florida    13-Aug-12      40% - 60%         -20
    Ft. Lauderdale, Florida    13-Aug-12    33.1% - 66.9%       -34
           Beallsville, Ohio   14-Aug-12      40% - 60%         -20
           Zanesville, Ohio    14-Aug-12      42% - 58%         -16
           Chillicothe, Ohio   14-Aug-12    48.4% - 51.6%        -3
   GALLUP SHOWS OBAMA’S APPROVAL IS UNDER
         WATER IN THOSE FOUR STATES.


            Barack Obama:                                                            Ohio
                                                                                                  Virginia
             Job Approval                                                          44-48 46-48
                                                                                    (-4) (-2)
           January-June 2012
                                                                                         North Carolina
                                                                                                 45-48
                                                                                                  (-3)
                                                                                      Florida
                                                                                      46-47
                                                                                       (-1)
*Approval data from Gallup Tracking among 90,766 adults in all 50 states, conducted January 1-June 30, 2012.


                                                                                                               4
    RCP SHOWS NARROW MARGINS IN EACH OF THE
     FOUR STATES, WITH OBAMA RUNNING THREE
       TO SIX POINTS BEHIND HIS ‘08 SUPPORT.
                                          2012 Presidential Ballot
                         Real Clear Politics Average By State as of August 9, 2012
         Florida                      North Carolina                           Ohio             Virginia
Obama’s ‘08 Support
            51%                              50%                               51%              53%
              -1                               +1                                  -4               -3
     46%           47%                48%            47%                44%             48%   44%        47%




     WMR           BO                 WMR            BO                 WMR             BO    WMR        BO
           Total                             Total                            Total             Total
  *Real Clear Politics average of statewide polls by state as of August 9, 2012.


                                                                                                               5
 AND, THE RECENT NYT/CBS/Q POLL DATA SHOWS
   REPUBLICANS ARE “MORE ENTHUSIASTIC”
    ABOUT VOTING THAN THE DEMOCRATS.
             Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of
              enthusiasm about voting in this year’s presidential election -- are you more
                enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?

           Florida                                   Ohio                                   Virginia

    +31                  +4                 +22                 +16                 +28                 +18
44%                                                                            41%
                                       37%
                                                           32%                                     31%
                   24% 20%
        13%                                     15%                16%                  13%                 13%
More Less          More Less           More Less           More Less           More Less           More Less
   GOP                 DEM                 GOP                 DEM                 GOP                 DEM
*Data from a Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll in Florida among 1,177 LV and Ohio among 1,193 LV, conducted July 24-30, 2012;
and, from a Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll in Virginia among 1,412 LV conducted July 31-August 6m 2012.


                                                                                                                      6
           THESE STATES HAVE BEEN THE FOCUS OF
               A TON OF PAID ADVERTISING.

                                                                 Ohio
            TV Ad Spending
                                                              $91,618,735
                By State                                          Virginia
           Since April 9, 2012                                  $68,305,136
                                                                  North Carolina
                                                                  $50,128,793
                                                                   Florida
                                                                $95,075,773
*Data from an independent media group as of August 9, 2012.


                                                                                   7
  CLEVELAND RESIDENTS HAVE SEEN THE MOST ADS.
                            Ads Run, April 10 – August 2: By Media Market
                          Obama/Allies -                        Romney/Allies -      Total
     Cleveland                 11,267                                8,116          19,383
           Reno                 8,165                                6,758          14,923
    Richmond                    8,409                                6,444          14,853

        Norfolk                 8,287                                6,248          14,535

    Columbus                    7,413                                6,740          14,153
    Cincinnati                  5,336                                5,968          11,304
  Des Moines                    5,640                                5,227          10,867
      Roanoke                   4,924                                5,758          10,682
Cedar Rapids                    4,847                                5,587          10,434
        Dayton                  4,041                                5,087          9,128

                   0%             20%             40%     60%           80%       100%
*Data from Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG)                                              8
     MORE MONEY WAS SPENT ON ADS IN JULY 2012
        THAN OCTOBER 2008 IN KEY MARKETS.
                                 Ad Spending: July 2012 vs. October 2008

                           ‘12         $3,095,354
       Charlotte                                                           +$1,127,242
                           ‘08         $1,968,112


                           ‘12         $4,296,903
        Orlando                                                            +$980,670
                           ‘08         $3,316,233


                           ‘12         $1,645,739
      Richmond                                                             +$672,285
                           ‘08         $973,454


                           ‘12         $2,613,623
      Columbus                                                             +$363,736
                           ‘08         $2,249,887

*Data from Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG)                                        9
The Convention
 ON AVERAGE, INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS RECEIVE
    A SEVEN POINT BOUNCE ON THE BALLOT
       FOLLOWING THEIR CONVENTION…
                Average Presidential Ballot Pre & Post Incumbents’ Convention

                                              Incumbent +7


                          -4                                                            +3

           42%                       46%                                  46%                       43%




       Incumbent                Challenger                            Incumbent                 Challenger
                Pre-Convention                                                 Post-Convention
*Data is from 1976-2004 and includes only years in which an incumbent President was running for re-election.
Polling data was taken from Gallup, Harris, CNN, CBS/NYT, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Wash Post, Fox News survey.


                                                                                                               11
           THE AVERAGE CONVENTION BUMP FOR
             CHALLENGERS IS EVEN GREATER…
                Average Presidential Ballot Pre & Post Challengers’ Convention


                                             Challenger +11


                          -4                                                            +7

                                                                          47%
           38%                       42%                                                            40%



       Challenger                Incumbent                            Challenger                Incumbent
                Pre-Convention                                                 Post-Convention
*Data is from 1976-2004 and includes only years in which an incumbent President was running for re-election.
Polling data was taken from Gallup, Harris, CNN, CBS/NYT, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Wash Post, Fox News survey.


                                                                                                               12
            AND, CHALLENGERS’ IMAGES IMPROVE
             SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AFTER THEIR
             CONVENTION THAN INCUMBENTS’.
                      Pre & Post Convention Presidential Candidate Images
       Average Incumbents’ Image                                        Average Challengers’ Image

                         +9                                                            +18

         +1                             +10                              -8                             +10
                                 48%
  43%          42%                                                            40%               40%
                                              38%
                                                                 32%                                           30%


   Fav        Unfav               Fav        Unfav                Fav         Unfav               Fav          Unfav
 Pre-Convention                Post-Convention                  Pre-Convention                 Post-Convention
*Data is from 1976-2004 and includes only years in which an incumbent President was running for re-election.
Polling data was taken from Gallup, Harris, CNN, CBS/NYT, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Wash Post, Fox News survey.


                                                                                                                       13
           NEIL NEWHOUSE
CAMPAIGN POLLSTER AND SENIOR STRATEGIST

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Tags:
Stats:
views:1626
posted:8/10/2012
language:Latin
pages:14