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BUS TOUR PRESS BRIEFING
August 10, 2012
OBAMA WON ALL FOUR STATES IN 2008 THAT
MITT IS VISITING ON THE BUS TOUR.
2008 Presidential Ohio
Virginia
Results By State 51-47 53-46
(+4) (+7)
Obama – McCain
North Carolina
49.9-49.5
(+0.4)
Florida
51-48
(+3)
2
HE BEAT MCCAIN IN ALL BUT TWO OF
THE LOCATIONS MITT WILL VISIT.
2008 Ballot
Town Date Difference
(McCain - Obama)
Norfolk, Virginia 11-Aug-12 28.0% - 71.0% -43
Ashland, Virginia 11-Aug-12 43.8% - 55.6% -12
Manassas, Virginia 11-Aug-12 43.8% - 55.2% -11
Charlotte, North Carolina 12-Aug-12 32.8% - 67.2% -34
Mooresville, North Carolina 12-Aug-12 67.5% - 32.5% +35
High Point, North Carolina 12-Aug-12 44.2% - 55.8% -12
Raleigh, North Carolina 12-Aug-12 48.1% - 51.9% -4
St. Augustine, Florida 13-Aug-12 58.7% - 41.3% +17
Orlando, Florida 13-Aug-12 36.7% - 63.1% -26
Miami, Florida 13-Aug-12 40% - 60% -20
Ft. Lauderdale, Florida 13-Aug-12 33.1% - 66.9% -34
Beallsville, Ohio 14-Aug-12 40% - 60% -20
Zanesville, Ohio 14-Aug-12 42% - 58% -16
Chillicothe, Ohio 14-Aug-12 48.4% - 51.6% -3
GALLUP SHOWS OBAMA’S APPROVAL IS UNDER
WATER IN THOSE FOUR STATES.
Barack Obama: Ohio
Virginia
Job Approval 44-48 46-48
(-4) (-2)
January-June 2012
North Carolina
45-48
(-3)
Florida
46-47
(-1)
*Approval data from Gallup Tracking among 90,766 adults in all 50 states, conducted January 1-June 30, 2012.
4
RCP SHOWS NARROW MARGINS IN EACH OF THE
FOUR STATES, WITH OBAMA RUNNING THREE
TO SIX POINTS BEHIND HIS ‘08 SUPPORT.
2012 Presidential Ballot
Real Clear Politics Average By State as of August 9, 2012
Florida North Carolina Ohio Virginia
Obama’s ‘08 Support
51% 50% 51% 53%
-1 +1 -4 -3
46% 47% 48% 47% 44% 48% 44% 47%
WMR BO WMR BO WMR BO WMR BO
Total Total Total Total
*Real Clear Politics average of statewide polls by state as of August 9, 2012.
5
AND, THE RECENT NYT/CBS/Q POLL DATA SHOWS
REPUBLICANS ARE “MORE ENTHUSIASTIC”
ABOUT VOTING THAN THE DEMOCRATS.
Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of
enthusiasm about voting in this year’s presidential election -- are you more
enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
Florida Ohio Virginia
+31 +4 +22 +16 +28 +18
44% 41%
37%
32% 31%
24% 20%
13% 15% 16% 13% 13%
More Less More Less More Less More Less More Less More Less
GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM
*Data from a Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll in Florida among 1,177 LV and Ohio among 1,193 LV, conducted July 24-30, 2012;
and, from a Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll in Virginia among 1,412 LV conducted July 31-August 6m 2012.
6
THESE STATES HAVE BEEN THE FOCUS OF
A TON OF PAID ADVERTISING.
Ohio
TV Ad Spending
$91,618,735
By State Virginia
Since April 9, 2012 $68,305,136
North Carolina
$50,128,793
Florida
$95,075,773
*Data from an independent media group as of August 9, 2012.
7
CLEVELAND RESIDENTS HAVE SEEN THE MOST ADS.
Ads Run, April 10 – August 2: By Media Market
Obama/Allies - Romney/Allies - Total
Cleveland 11,267 8,116 19,383
Reno 8,165 6,758 14,923
Richmond 8,409 6,444 14,853
Norfolk 8,287 6,248 14,535
Columbus 7,413 6,740 14,153
Cincinnati 5,336 5,968 11,304
Des Moines 5,640 5,227 10,867
Roanoke 4,924 5,758 10,682
Cedar Rapids 4,847 5,587 10,434
Dayton 4,041 5,087 9,128
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
*Data from Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG) 8
MORE MONEY WAS SPENT ON ADS IN JULY 2012
THAN OCTOBER 2008 IN KEY MARKETS.
Ad Spending: July 2012 vs. October 2008
‘12 $3,095,354
Charlotte +$1,127,242
‘08 $1,968,112
‘12 $4,296,903
Orlando +$980,670
‘08 $3,316,233
‘12 $1,645,739
Richmond +$672,285
‘08 $973,454
‘12 $2,613,623
Columbus +$363,736
‘08 $2,249,887
*Data from Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG) 9
The Convention
ON AVERAGE, INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS RECEIVE
A SEVEN POINT BOUNCE ON THE BALLOT
FOLLOWING THEIR CONVENTION…
Average Presidential Ballot Pre & Post Incumbents’ Convention
Incumbent +7
-4 +3
42% 46% 46% 43%
Incumbent Challenger Incumbent Challenger
Pre-Convention Post-Convention
*Data is from 1976-2004 and includes only years in which an incumbent President was running for re-election.
Polling data was taken from Gallup, Harris, CNN, CBS/NYT, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Wash Post, Fox News survey.
11
THE AVERAGE CONVENTION BUMP FOR
CHALLENGERS IS EVEN GREATER…
Average Presidential Ballot Pre & Post Challengers’ Convention
Challenger +11
-4 +7
47%
38% 42% 40%
Challenger Incumbent Challenger Incumbent
Pre-Convention Post-Convention
*Data is from 1976-2004 and includes only years in which an incumbent President was running for re-election.
Polling data was taken from Gallup, Harris, CNN, CBS/NYT, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Wash Post, Fox News survey.
12
AND, CHALLENGERS’ IMAGES IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AFTER THEIR
CONVENTION THAN INCUMBENTS’.
Pre & Post Convention Presidential Candidate Images
Average Incumbents’ Image Average Challengers’ Image
+9 +18
+1 +10 -8 +10
48%
43% 42% 40% 40%
38%
32% 30%
Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Fav Unfav
Pre-Convention Post-Convention Pre-Convention Post-Convention
*Data is from 1976-2004 and includes only years in which an incumbent President was running for re-election.
Polling data was taken from Gallup, Harris, CNN, CBS/NYT, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Wash Post, Fox News survey.
13
NEIL NEWHOUSE
CAMPAIGN POLLSTER AND SENIOR STRATEGIST
