Gulding 2010 01 12 GMU ATO Demand Brief V2 by k6oDS4

VIEWS: 25 PAGES: 30

									Performance Analysis and   Federal Aviation
                           Administration
Strategy



ATO Future Schedule
Generation



January 27, 2010
Briefing Overview


• ATO and Future Schedule Generation

• Inputs to Future Schedule Generation

• Sample Day Selection and Averaging

• Core Logic

• Future Work




                                 Federal Aviation
                                 Administration     2
ATO and Future Schedules


• Core ATO Function Since 2006
   – ATO Sponsored Multiple Demand Generation Projects
   – No consistency across planning projects

• Streamline process for building future scenarios
   – Demand/Model Issues Worked out in Advance
   – Representative Sample Days

• Assumptions coordinated within ATO
   – Feasible Schedules
   – Risk Ranges




                                        Federal Aviation
                                        Administration     3
               End Users
• DATACOM Investment Analysis
• ERAM Evaluations
• NextGen Portfolio Analysis
• Performance Airspace Management
• High Altitude Trajectory Based Airspace




                               Federal Aviation
                               Administration     4
Summary of Input to Future Scenarios


• APO
  –   TAF Airport Operations (Annual Levels)
  –   Future Fleet Assumptions (Annual Projections)
  –   ASPM Gate/Runway Times (Daily Traffic)
  –   OPSNET Data Counts (Daily Traffic)
  –   Cancellations
• ATO AIMLAB
  – Filed Flight Information (altitude, speed, waypoints)
  – Center Crossing Data (Not Filed but used for Center Activity)
  – Cancellations
• Consistent with Data Sources Used to Assess ATO
  Performance


                                            Federal Aviation
                                            Administration          5
                                                OEP35 TAF Total Operations FY2001-2025
             26,000,000


                                 25% Down from 2004                                                                                                                             TAF 2004
             24,000,000
                                 19% Down from 2006
             22,000,000


                                                                                                                                                                                TAF 2006
             20,000,000
Operations




                                 2001 – 16,164,900                                                                                                                              TAF 2008
                                 2017 – 16,174,591
             18,000,000


                                                                                                                                                                                TAF 2009
             16,000,000




             14,000,000




             12,000,000
                          2001

                                  2002

                                         2003

                                                2004

                                                        2005

                                                               2006

                                                                      2007

                                                                             2008

                                                                                       2009

                                                                                              2010

                                                                                                     2011

                                                                                                            2012

                                                                                                                   2013

                                                                                                                          2014

                                                                                                                                    2015

                                                                                                                                            2016

                                                                                                                                                    2017

                                                                                                                                                           2018

                                                                                                                                                                  2019

                                                                                                                                                                         2020

                                                                                                                                                                                 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                        2022

                                                                                                                                                                                               2023

                                                                                                                                                                                                      2024

                                                                                                                                                                                                             2025
                                                       TAF 2009 Forecast            TAF 2008 Forecast       TAF 2006             TAF 2004          OPSNET Actuals Track




                                                                                                                                           Federal Aviation
                                                                                                                                           Administration                                                           6
                                                                     2006 TAF v. 2009 TAF Projections
                                10.0%




                                 5.0%




                                 0.0%
% Change Ttl Ops FY09 v. FY06




                                 -5.0%




                                -10.0%




                                -15.0%




                                -20.0%




                                -25.0%




                                -30.0%
                                         2010



                                                2011



                                                       2012



                                                              2013



                                                                       2014



                                                                              2015



                                                                                     2016



                                                                                                2017



                                                                                                         2018



                                                                                                                   2019



                                                                                                                                2020



                                                                                                                                       2021



                                                                                                                                              2022



                                                                                                                                                     2023



                                                                                                                                                            2024



                                                                                                                                                                   2025
                                                                                            Forecast Fiscal Year

                                                                                     ATL          JFK       PHL           LAS




                                                                                                                           Federal Aviation
                                                                                                                           Administration                                 7
 Representative Planning Days


• Sample Days Throughout Fiscal Year
  – Reflect Seasonality of the NAS
  – Peak and Off-peak Days each Fiscal Quarter
  – 8 Days per Fiscal Year

• Target 90% Planning Day by Facility by Season
  – Originally Based on 20 CONUS Centers
  – Assess 90% Day for 35 OEP Airports
  – ASPM Delay, NAS Wx index



                                   Federal Aviation
                                   Administration     8
                                     Center Count Traffic for ZMA

         7500
                  Almost all 36 Above Target Days Occur in Winter/Spring
         7000


         6500

                                           5974
         6000

                 5543                                                                       Current Target Day - Mar 23
         5500
Counts




                5130                                                                 5353
         5000


         4500
                                                                                                                 4380
         4000


         3500


         3000
          25-Sep-04     14-Nov-04     3-Jan-05    22-Feb-05    13-Apr-05       2-Jun-05         22-Jul-05     10-Sep-05
                                                              FY2005

                        ZMA   FY05   FAL    WNT   SPR   SUM   ATO_FAL      ATO_WNT    ATO_SPR     ATO_SUM   Poly. (ZMA)



                                                                               Federal Aviation
                                                                               Administration                             9
                                                                             Representative Days
                                  10


                                   8


                                   6
Percent Difference from 90% Day




                                   4


                                   2


                                   0
                                        ZAB   ZAU   ZBW   ZDC   ZDV   ZFW   ZHU   ZID   ZJX   ZKC   ZLA   ZLC    ZMA    ZME   ZMP   ZNY   ZOA   ZOB   ZSE   ZTL

                                   -2


                                   -4


                                   -6


                                   -8


                                  -10
                                                                                          CONUS Center

                                                                                          23-Jul     L1     L2



                                                                                                                       Federal Aviation
                                                                                                                       Administration                             10
                                                                   Seasonal Average Performance Metrics
                                           10


                                            8


                                            6
Percent Difference from Seasonal Average




                                            4


                                            2


                                            0
                                                 ZAB   ZAU   ZBW   ZDC   ZDV   ZFW   ZHU   ZID   ZJX    ZKC      ZLA    ZLC   ZMA    ZME   ZMP   ZNY   ZOA   ZOB   ZSE   ZTL

                                            -2


                                            -4


                                            -6


                                            -8


                                           -10
                                                                                                       CONUS Center

                                                                                                 23-Jul 15 Aug         L1     L2



                                                                                                                                   Federal Aviation
                                                                                                                                   Administration                              11
                                                    FY2009 True Average vs 8 Day Weighting
                                 5


                                 4


                                 3
% Difference from True Average




                                 2


                                 1


                                 0
                                      ZAB   ZAU   ZBW   ZDC   ZDV   ZFW   ZHU   ZID   ZJX    ZKC   ZLA     ZLC   ZMA   ZME   ZMP   ZNY   ZOA   ZOB   ZSE   ZTL

                                 -1


                                 -2


                                 -3


                                 -4


                                 -5
                                                                                            CONUS Center



                                                                                                                  Federal Aviation
                                                                                                                  Administration                            12
                                                    FY2009 True Average vs 8 Day Weighting
                                 5


                                 4


                                 3
% Difference from True Average




                                 2


                                 1


                                 0
                                      ZAB   ZAU   ZBW   ZDC   ZDV   ZFW   ZHU   ZID   ZJX    ZKC   ZLA     ZLC       ZMA   ZME   ZMP   ZNY   ZOA   ZOB   ZSE   ZTL
                                 -1


                                 -2


                                 -3


                                 -4


                                 -5
                                                                                            CONUS Center

                                                                                        Series1      L           L



                                                                                                                      Federal Aviation
                                                                                                                      Administration                            13
Summary Day Selection


• 8 Day Samples can vary with criteria
   –   Annual vs. Fiscal quarter accuracy
   –   Center, Airport Facility
   –   Weighted Airport (JFK, ATL, etc)
   –   Performance measures other than counts
        • Flight Hours, Delay, NAS On-Time
   – Optimal Weighting Coefficients
• 8 Sample Days with Weighting
   – Provides reasonable annual estimates by facility
   – Easier to investigate a smaller samples
• Arithmetic Average (36 Days) vs. 8 Days



                                             Federal Aviation
                                             Administration     14
 ATO Future Schedule – Core Logic


• Turn Airport Growth Rates into City Pair Growth Rates (Frater)
   – Builds the traffic network
• Constrained Demand
   – Is the Network Feasible?
• Future Itineraries
   – Links flights together, propagated delay
• Future Fleet
   – How will the fleet evolve?
• What has Changed?


                                                Federal Aviation
                                                Administration     15
     How Peaky Should Schedules Become?



• ATO-F discount delay if above a certain threshold
   – Generic smoothing algorithm – no limit on time
• 20 Minute Delay Rule – LGA Study
   – 20 minute average open to interpretation
   – Iterative process with models
• FY 2000 Delay Rule
   – Airports Frozen at 2000 Levels
   – Sensitive to model
• Historical Demand/Capacity Ratios
   – Developed by MITRE for OEP 6.0 & 8.0
   – Simple, practical to implement

                                            Federal Aviation
                                            Administration     16
Percent Above Target Capacity in 15 Minute Bin – How Bad Does It Get?
                                          2006 VMC Capacity Data from ATO-F, Summer 90% Peak Day

                            60

                                                       Most 15 Minute Bin Peaks
                                                       Less than 30% Over
                            50

                                                                  40% Selected for Representative
                            40
                                                                  As Bad As It Gets
                                                                     Known Problem Airports
# of 15 Minute Bins Above




                                                                      Over Capacity
                                                                      More Balanced Operation
                            30

                                                                                                        Arr/Dep Imbalance
                                                                                                        Special Cases
                            20




                            10




                             0
                                 0%-10%      10%-20%    20%-30%    30%-40%       40%-50%      50%-60%         60%-70%   70%-80%
                                                                     Pct Above Capacity

                                                                      Pct Above Capacity



                                                                                           Federal Aviation
                                                                                           Administration                         17
                                                                          Newark Airport FY 2006
                                                         Ratio of Filed Operations to Optimal VFR Capacity

                         4000


                         3500


                         3000

                                                                                                  Upper Bound for Qtr Operations Growth
# of Quarter Hour Bins




                         2500


                         2000


                         1500


                         1000


                          500


                            0
                                0.6-0.7   0.7-0.8   0.8-0.9   0.9-1.0   1.0-1.1   1.1-1.2   1.2-1.3   1.3-1.4   1.4-1.5     1.5-1.6     1.6-1.7     1.7-1.8    1.8-1.9     1.9+
                                                                                   Filed Operations/VFR Capacity

                           0.6-0.7   0.7-0.8   0.8-0.9   0.9-1.0   1.0-1.1    1.1-1.2   1.2-1.3    1.3-1.4   1.4-1.5      1.5-1.6     1.6-1.7     1.7-1.8     1.8-1.9    1.9+



                                                                                                                   Federal Aviation
                                                                                                                   Administration                                               18
                                          Newark EWR Traffic Flow - Summer Quarter FY2006
                                                   NAS Model Day: 4:00am to 4:00am

               40
                    ATO-F Curve                                             62% Above
                    43 42 35 50
               35
                                                   48% Above
                                                                             43 % Above
               30
                                                                   33%      29%         38% Above
                    40%
                                                       32%                                Results in about 85 Operations per hour 21.25/qtr
               25   19 Deps 2 Arr
                    At Cap at 15 Ops
Traffic Flow




               20


               15


               10


                5


                0
                          5




                                          5




                                                   .5




                                              15 5




                                              18 5




                                              21 5




                                              24 5




                                              27 5




                                                   .5
                  75


                         25


                                75


                                         25


                                                    5


                                                    5


                                                    5


                                                    5


                                                    5


                                                    5


                                                    5


                                                    5


                                                    5


                                                    5


                                                    5


                                                    5


                                                    5
                   4




                                 7




                                              10 0




                                              13 3




                                              16 6




                                                  19




                                                  22




                                              25 5




                                              28 8
                        5.




                                        8.




                                                   .




                                                   .




                                                   .




                                                   .




                                                   .
                                                 .7


                                                 .2


                                                 .7


                                                 .2


                                                 .7


                                                 .2


                                                 .7


                                                 .2


                                                 .7


                                                 .2


                                                 .7


                                                 .2


                                                 .7
                                                  1




                                                  1




                                                  1




                                                  2




                                                  2
                                               11




                                               14




                                               17




                                               20




                                               23




                                               26




                                               29
                4.


                       6.


                              7.


                                       9.




                                              12




                                              19




                                              22
                                                                      Local Time

                                                               ATO Sched      Cap         Cap40



                                                                                             Federal Aviation
                                                                                             Administration                                   19
Constrained Schedule Methodology


• Airport VFR Capacities Compared to IFR
  Schedule for 15 Minute Intervals

• Flight Times Adjusted to Reduce Peaks

• Based on Airline Tolerance for Congestion
    –   15 Minute > 40% above Capacity
    –   1 Hour > 20 % above Capacity
    –   2 Consecutive Hours > 14 % above Capacity
    –   3 Consecutive Hours > 6 % above Capacity
    –   Most Congested Airports Considered First




                                          Federal Aviation
                                          Administration     20
                                       Cleveland CLE Traffic Flow - Summer Quarter FY2017
                                                        NAS Model Day: 4:00am to 4:00am

               40


               35
                                                                                         Results in about 86 Operations per hour 21.5/qtr
               30


               25
Traffic Flow




               20


               15

                                                                                                             All Arrivals
               10


                5
                                                                All Departures

                0
                          5




                                        5




                                            12 5




                                            15 5




                                            18 5




                                            21 5




                                            24 5




                                            27 5




                                                .5
                  75


                         25


                                75


                                       25


                                                 5


                                                 5


                                                 5


                                                 5


                                                 5


                                                 5


                                                 5


                                                 5


                                                 5


                                                 5


                                                 5


                                                 5


                                                 5
                   4




                                 7




                                            10 0




                                               13




                                               16




                                               19




                                            22 2




                                            25 5




                                               28
                        5.




                                      8.




                                                .




                                                .




                                                .




                                                .




                                                .




                                                .
                                              .7


                                              .2


                                              .7


                                              .2


                                              .7


                                              .2


                                              .7


                                              .2


                                              .7


                                              .2


                                              .7


                                              .2


                                              .7
                                               1




                                               2




                                               2
                                             11




                                             14




                                             17




                                             20




                                             23




                                             26




                                             29
                4.


                       6.


                              7.


                                     9.




                                            13




                                            16




                                            19




                                            28
                                                                     Zulu Prime + Hour

                                            ATO Sched       ATO_Sched_Base        ATO_Con_Rev          Cap          Cap40


                                                                                            Federal Aviation
                                                                                            Administration                                  21
                                                                ORD - Avg Minutes Delay

                           90                                                                                                4000


                           80                                                                                                3500


                           70
                                                                                                                             3000

                           60
Average Minutes of Delay




                                                                                                                             2500

                           50
                                                                                                                             2000
                           40

                                                                                                                             1500
                           30

                                                                                                                             1000
                           20


                           10                                                                                                500



                            0                                                                                                0
                                FY07   FY08   FY09   FY10   FY11     FY12     FY13    FY14      FY15   FY16    FY17   FY18

                                                                        Fiscal Year
                                                              Unconstrained           Trimmed
                                                              U_Ops                   T_Ops
                                                                                                Federal Aviation
                                                                                                Administration                      22
                                  TAF Projections and Constrained Airports - 2025 Projection
                            600




                            500
Number of Trimmed Flights




                            400




                            300




                            200




                            100




                             0
                                  PHL    LAS     ATL    MDW           LAX            EWR          JFK       SNA   PHX
                                                                     Airport

                                                         2006 Projection    2009 Projection
                                                                                         Federal Aviation
                                                                                         Administration                 23
Future Fleet


• Fleet Forecast File – (2010-2030)
   – 139 Airlines
   – Mainline (15), Low-cost (12), Regional (21), Other (49) Cargo (42)
   – Jet Charter

• Aircraft Fleet Projections for Several Classes of Aircraft
   – Link to 3-Char Airline, 4-Char Equipment Codes

• Relation of Future Fleet File (Greenslet) to Rest of APO
  Process
   – Future Operations (Air Carrier, Air Taxi, GA, Military)
   – Future Enplanements         (Air Carrier, Commuter)
   – Load Factor



                                                  Federal Aviation
                                                  Administration          24
                          JFK TAF Projections - Enplanments and Operations

               26000000                                                                                     390000


               25500000                                                                                     385000


               25000000
                                                                                                            380000

               24500000
                                                                                                            375000
Enplanements




                                                                                                                     Operations
               24000000
                                                                                                            370000
               23500000


               23000000
                                                  Rules for Up-gauging Aircraft                             365000


                                                                                                            360000
               22500000


               22000000                                                                                     355000


               21500000                                                                                     350000
                      2006   2008   2010   2012    2014      2016    2018       2020     2022     2024   2026

                                                  AC Enplanements   AC Operations




                                                                               Federal Aviation
                                                                               Administration                         25
Evidence of Up-gauging

•   Based on the number of seats available in the fleet as predicted by the
    2008 Greenslet/APO fleet forecast.
     –   Cargo aircraft are assigned zero seats.




                                                   Federal Aviation
                                                   Administration             26
                                                                                   26
Evidence of Up-gauging
•   If the data is segregated by airline user class, we observe that the up-
    gauging is driven by regional and ‘other’ operations, while mainline
    carriers lower the number of available seats.




                                                    Federal Aviation
                                                    Administration             27
                                                                                    27
Airport Up-gauging

•   At the airport level, LGA is an example of an airport that suggests the
    need for up-gauging. Based on the TAF 2009 forecast, the enplanements
    at LGA are forecasted to grow much quicker than the operations.




                                                Federal Aviation
                                                Administration                28
                                                                                   28
                                                  Intra-European flights                                         US domestic flights (CONUS)
                                  120                                                                   120
avg. number of seats per flight



                                  115                                                                   115

                                  110                                                                   110

                                  105                                                                   105

                                  100                                                                   100

                                  95                                                                    95


                                  90                                                                    90




                                                                                                              2000
                                                                                                                       2001
                                                                                                                              2002
                                                                                                                                      2003
                                                                                                                                             2004
                                                                                                                                                    2005
                                                                                                                                                           2006
                                                                                                                                                                  2007
                                                                                                                                                                          2008
                                         2000
                                                2001
                                                       2002
                                                              2003
                                                                     2004
                                                                            2005
                                                                                   2006
                                                                                          2007
                                                                                                 2008


                                        Scheduled services (main 34 airports)                             Scheduled services (OEP 34 airports)
                                        All scheduled services                                            All scheduled services
                                                                                                                                     Source: FAA/ PRC analysis

                                                                                                                     Federal Aviation
                                                                                                                     Administration                                      29
Future Development


• Improve Accessibility of Schedules
   – Understand Data Limitations
   – Web Access
• Guidance for Uncertainty
   – Alternative Scenarios
   – Mont-Carlo
• System Performance/Airline Behavior
   – Demand Shifts
• Keep Analysis “Costs” Down
   – Remember the Objective
   – Did the work make a difference?



                                       Federal Aviation
                                       Administration     30

								
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