Docstoc

Estimate Future MILC Payments.xls

Document Sample
Estimate Future MILC Payments.xls Powered By Docstoc
					                          Overview of Model Structure
                          Estimation of Dairy Ration Value
                                 Chicago Board of Trade corn futures settlement price for months
                                 with futures contracts. For months without futures contracts,
Estimated Corn Prices            interpolated value using last contract month and near contract
                                 month. Contract months are March, May, July, September and
                                 December.

                                 Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures settlement price for
                                 months with futures contracts. For months without futures
Estimated Soybean Prices         contracts, interpolated value using last contract month and near
                                 contract month. Contract months are January, March, May, July,
                                 August, September and November.

Estimated Alfalfa Hay Prices     3 year moving average

                               Estimation of Class I Mover
                                 Class III Futures price for previous month to account for timing
Estimated Advanced Class III
                                 of advanced price announcement (e.g. February mover is
Price
                                 announced on or before January 23)

                                 Class IV Futures price for previous month to account for timing
Estimated Advanced Class IV
                                 of advanced price announcement (e.g. February mover is
Price
                                 announced on or before January 23)

Estimated Class I Mover          Higher of Estimated Advanced Class III and Class IV Price




Old method of Hay: Regression estimate from relationship between current NASS hay price and
two-month lagged NASS prices for corn and soybeans. See Hay_Price_Forecast worksheet for
regression parameters.
Dairy ration value is based on 51%
Corn, 8% Soybeans and 41% Hay
                        Corn                                             Beans

                  Futures @ NASS Nat                               Futures @
Year     Month                         Diff      Year     Month
                   Maturity   Avg                                   Maturity


  2000        3        2.29     2.03     -0.26     2000        1         4.86
              5        2.36     2.11     -0.25                 3         5.20
              7        1.75     1.64     -0.11                 5         5.52
              9        1.79     1.61     -0.18                 7         4.65
             12        2.11     1.97     -0.14                 8         4.52
  2001        3        2.12     1.96     -0.16                 9         4.84
              5        1.96     1.82     -0.14                11         4.72
              7        2.21     1.87     -0.34     2001        1         4.79
              9        2.14     1.91     -0.23                 3         4.42
             12        2.08     1.98     -0.10                 5         4.50
  2002        3        2.03     1.94     -0.09                 7         5.22
              5        2.09     1.93     -0.16                 8         5.16
              7        2.14     2.13     -0.01                 9         4.71
              9        2.67     2.47     -0.20                11         4.48
             12        2.36     2.32     -0.04     2002        1         4.46
  2003        3        2.30     2.33      0.03                 3         4.58
              5        2.56     2.38     -0.18                 5         4.75
              7        2.23     2.17     -0.06                 7         5.78
              9        2.27      2.2     -0.07                 8         6.02
             12        2.55     2.31     -0.24                 9         5.63
  2004        3        2.96     2.75     -0.21                11         5.70
              5        2.87     2.87      0.00     2003        1         5.55
              7        2.42     2.51      0.09                 3         5.78
              9        2.06      2.2      0.14                 5         6.44
             12        1.95     2.04      0.09                 7         6.10
  2005        3        2.15     2.02     -0.13                 8         5.83
              5        1.95     1.98      0.03                 9         6.48
              7        2.45     2.11     -0.34                11         7.73
              9        1.95      1.9     -0.05     2004        1         8.35
             12        1.94     1.92     -0.02                 3         9.54
  2006        3        2.19     2.06     -0.13                 5         9.69
              5        2.48     2.17     -0.31                 7         8.63
              7        2.54     2.14     -0.40                 8         6.52
              9        2.23      2.2     -0.03                 9         5.60
             12        3.59     3.01     -0.58                11         5.23
  2007        3        3.90     3.43     -0.47     2005        1         5.42
              5        3.58     3.49     -0.09                 3         6.54
              7        3.42     3.32     -0.10                 5         6.04
              9        3.37     3.29     -0.08                 7         7.23
             12        4.20     3.76     -0.44                 8         6.43
  2008        3        5.55      4.7     -0.85                 9         5.70
              5        5.90     5.27     -0.63                11         5.90
              7        6.57     5.25     -1.32     2006        1         5.65
        9   5.47   5.01   -0.46           3    5.75
       12   3.60   4.11    0.51           5    6.00
2009    3   3.75   3.85    0.10           7    6.02
        5   4.22   3.96   -0.26           8    5.50
        7   3.50    3.6    0.10           9    5.32
        9   3.05   3.25    0.20          11    6.56
       12   3.92    3.6   -0.32   2007    1    7.06
2010    3   3.54   3.55    0.01           3    7.36
        5   3.57   3.48   -0.09           5    7.62
        7   3.75   3.49   -0.26           7    9.13
        9   4.78   4.08   -0.70           8    8.50
       12   5.75   4.82   -0.93           9    9.41
2011    3   6.64   5.53   -1.11          11   10.66
        5   6.79   6.32   -0.47   2008    1   12.97
        7   7.17   6.33   -0.84           3   13.40
        9   7.13   6.37   -0.76           5   13.71
       12   5.80   5.44   -0.36           7   15.95
                                          8   12.45
                          -0.42           9   14.90
                                         11    8.78
                                  2009    1    9.78
                                          3    8.83
                                          5   11.66
                                          7   10.74
                                          8   11.00
                                          9    9.25
                                         11    9.84
                                  2010    1    9.69
                                          3    9.26
                                          5    9.48
                                          7   10.36
                                          8   10.52
                                          9   10.25
                                         11   12.63
                                  2011    1   14.07
                                          3   13.29
                                          5   13.37
                                          7   13.91
                                          8   13.37
                                          9   13.74
                                         11   11.72
Beans

   NASS Nat
               Diff
     Avg


        4.62     -0.24
        4.91     -0.29
        5.19     -0.33                                                 Corn: National Basis
        4.53     -0.12
                                 7.00
        4.45     -0.07
        4.59     -0.25
        4.55     -0.17           6.00
                                                 Futures @ Maturity

        4.68     -0.11                           NASS Nat. Avg.

        4.39     -0.03
        4.33     -0.17           5.00
        4.79     -0.43
        4.85     -0.31
        4.53     -0.18           4.00
        4.16     -0.32
                         $/Bu




        4.22     -0.24
        4.38     -0.20           3.00
        4.64     -0.11
        5.35     -0.43
                                 2.00
        5.53     -0.49
        5.39     -0.24
        5.46     -0.24
                                 1.00    Mean: (0.21)
        5.51     -0.04                   Min: (1.32)
        5.59     -0.19                   Max: 0.14
        6.07     -0.37           0.00
        5.82     -0.28
                                         12




                                         12




                                         12




                                         12




                                         12




                                         12
                                          3
                                          5
                                          7
                                          9

                                          3
                                          5
                                          7
                                          9

                                          3
                                          5
                                          7
                                          9

                                          3
                                          5
                                          7
                                          9

                                          3
                                          5
                                          7
                                          9

                                          3
                                          5
                                          7
                                          9

                                          3
                                          5
        5.68     -0.15                   2000       2001              2002   2003   2004   2005   2006
        6.06     -0.42
        7.05     -0.68
        7.35     -1.00
        9.28     -0.26
        9.56     -0.13
        8.46     -0.17                                            Soybeans: National Basis
        6.83      0.31
                                 18.00
        5.83      0.23
        5.36      0.13
                                 16.00
        5.57      0.15                              Futures @ Maturity
        5.95     -0.59
                                                    NASS Nat Avg
        6.21      0.17           14.00
        6.65     -0.58
        6.15     -0.28           12.00
        5.77      0.07
        5.62     -0.28           10.00
                          $/Bu




        5.87      0.22
                $/Bu
 5.57   -0.18          8.00
 5.68   -0.32
 5.61   -0.41
                       6.00
 5.23   -0.27
 5.23   -0.09
                       4.00
 6.08   -0.48
 6.37   -0.69
                                     Mean: (0.49)
 6.95   -0.41          2.00
                                     Min: (4.20)
 7.12   -0.50                        Max: 0.42
 7.56   -1.57          0.00




                              11




                              11




                              11




                              11




                              11




                              11
                               1
                               3
                               5
                               7
                               8
                               9
                               1
                               3
                               5
                               7
                               8
                               9
                               1
                               3
                               5
                               7
                               8
                               9
                               1
                               3
                               5
                               7
                               8
                               9
                               1
                               3
                               5
                               7
                               8
                               9
                               1
                               3
                               5
                               7
                               8
                               9
                               1
                               3
 7.72   -0.78
 8.18   -1.23                 2000         2001     2002   2003   2004   2005   2006
 9.41   -1.25
 9.96   -3.01
 11.5   -1.90
 12.1   -1.61
 13.3   -2.65
 12.1   -0.35
 10.7   -4.20
  9.2    0.42
 9.97   -4.10
 9.55   -3.74
 9.12   -4.25
 9.79   -4.12
10.70   -2.67
11.40   -2.34
10.80    0.96
10.80    1.12
 9.75    0.49
 9.43   -0.05
 9.53   -0.83
 9.80   -0.72
 9.79   -0.46
 9.41   -3.22
 9.39   -4.68
 9.47   -3.82
 9.41   -3.96
 9.45   -4.46
 9.79   -3.58
10.10   -3.64
 9.98   -1.74

        -2.25
        5
        7




2006
        9
       12
        3
        5
        7




2007
        9
       12
        3
        5
        7




2008
        9
       12
        3
        5
        7




2006
        8
        9
       11
        1
        3
        5
        7




2007
        8
        9
       11
        1
        3
        5
        7




2008
        8
        9
       11
           Corn          Soybeans Alfalfa   alfalfa   time

2000 Jan          1.91        4.62                     1
     Feb          1.98        4.79                     2
     Mar          2.03        4.91
     Apr          2.03           5
     May          2.11        5.19
     Jun          1.91        4.93
     Jul          1.64        4.53
     Aug          1.52        4.45
     Sep          1.61        4.59
     Oct          1.74        4.45
     Nov          1.86        4.55
     Dec          1.97        4.78
2001 Jan          1.98        4.68
     Feb          1.96        4.46
     Mar          1.96        4.39
     Apr          1.89        4.22
     May          1.82        4.33
     Jun          1.76        4.46
     Jul          1.87        4.79
     Aug           1.9        4.85
     Sep          1.91        4.53
     Oct          1.84        4.09
     Nov          1.85        4.16
     Dec          1.98         4.2
2002 Jan          1.97        4.22
     Feb          1.93        4.22
     Mar          1.94        4.38
     Apr          1.91        4.47
     May          1.93        4.64
     Jun          1.97        4.88
     Jul          2.13        5.35
     Aug          2.38        5.53
     Sep          2.47        5.39
     Oct          2.34         5.2
     Nov          2.28        5.46
     Dec          2.32        5.46
2003 Jan          2.33        5.51
     Feb          2.34        5.55
     Mar          2.33        5.59
     Apr          2.34        5.82
     May          2.38        6.07
     Jun          2.34        6.09
     Jul          2.17        5.82
     Aug          2.15        5.68
     Sep           2.2        6.06
     Oct          2.12         6.6
     Nov           2.2        7.05
     Dec          2.31        7.17
2004 Jan   2.39   7.35
     Feb   2.61   8.28
     Mar   2.75   9.28
     Apr   2.89   9.62
     May   2.87   9.56
     Jun   2.79   9.08
     Jul   2.51   8.46
     Aug   2.34   6.83
     Sep    2.2   5.83
     Oct   2.14   5.56
     Nov   2.05   5.36
     Dec   2.04   5.45          94.5
2005 Jan   2.12   5.57   94.5     94
     Feb   1.95   5.42     94   98.6
     Mar   2.02   5.95   98.6    105
     Apr      2   6.03    105    114
     May   1.98   6.21    114    106
     Jun   2.03   6.58    106    105
     Jul   2.11   6.65    105    108
     Aug   1.95   6.15    108    106
     Sep    1.9   5.77    106    105
     Oct   1.82   5.67    105   97.6
     Nov   1.77   5.62   97.6   96.6   SUMMARY OUTPUT
     Dec   1.92   5.78   96.6   95.1
2006 Jan      2   5.87   95.1   98.4         Regression Statistics
     Feb   2.02   5.67   98.4    100   Multiple R             0.980717
     Mar   2.06   5.57    100    108   R Square               0.961806
     Apr   2.11   5.52    108    114   Adjusted R Square      0.960373
     May   2.17   5.68    114    112   Standard Error         5.880272
     Jun   2.14   5.62    112    111   Observations                 84
     Jul   2.14   5.61    111    109
     Aug   2.09   5.23    109    111   ANOVA
     Sep    2.2   5.23    111    113                              df
     Oct   2.55   5.52    113    110   Regression                       3
     Nov   2.88   6.08    110    111   Residual                        80
     Dec   3.01   6.18    111    112   Total                           83
2007 Jan   3.05   6.37    112    115
     Feb   3.44   6.87    115    121                         Coefficients
     Mar   3.43   6.95    121    127   Intercept              18.46036
     Apr   3.39   6.88    127    142   lag corn               9.710866
     May   3.49   7.12    142    137   lag bean                -2.28522
     Jun   3.53   7.51    137    136   lag hay                  0.75015
     Jul   3.32   7.56    136    135
     Aug   3.26   7.72    135    135
     Sep   3.28   8.15    135    136
     Oct   3.29   8.36    136    136
     Nov   3.44   9.42    136    135
     Dec   3.77     10    135    136                  5.90        11.70
2008 Jan   3.98   9.95    136    138
     Feb   4.54   11.7    138    144          193.0460611
     Mar    4.7   11.4    144    146
     Apr   5.14     12    146    177
       May   5.27    12.1      177      174
       Jun   5.47    13.1      174      179
       Jul   5.25    13.3      179      179
       Aug   5.26    12.8      179   175.00
       Sep   5.02    10.7   175.00   171.00
       Oct   4.37    9.94   171.00   165.00
       Nov   4.26    9.38   165.00   152.00
       Dec    4.1    9.24   152.00   149.00
2009   Jan   4.36    9.97   149.00   143.00
       Feb   3.87    9.55   143.00   137.00
       Mar   3.86    9.12   137.00   133.00
       Apr   3.85    9.79   133.00   138.00
       May   3.97   10.70   138.00   128.00
       Jun   4.03   11.40   128.00   120.00
       Jul   3.60   10.80   120.00   111.00
       Aug   3.33   10.80   111.00   110.00
       Sep   3.25    9.75   110.00   109.00
       Oct   3.61    9.43   109.00   110.00
       Nov   3.65    9.53   110.00   110.00
       Dec   3.60    9.80   110.00   111.00
2010   Jan   3.66    9.79   111.00   110.00
       Feb   3.55    9.41   110.00   113.00
       Mar   3.55    9.39   113.00   112.00
       Apr   3.41    9.47   112.00   121.00
       May   3.48    9.41   121.00   119.00
       Jun   3.41    9.45   119.00   117.00
       Jul   3.49    9.79   117.00   116.00
       Aug   3.65   10.10   116.00   117.00
       Sep   4.08    9.98   117.00   118.00
       Oct   4.32   10.20   118.00   117.00
       Nov   4.55   11.10   117.00   121.00
       Dec   4.82   11.60   121.00   121.00
2011   Jan   4.94   11.60   121.00   129.00
       Feb   5.65   12.70   129.00   142.00
       Mar   5.53   12.70   142.00   161.00
       Apr   6.36   13.10   161.00   187.00
       May   6.32   13.20   187.00   180.00
       Jun   6.38   13.20   180.00   189.00
       Jul   6.33   13.20   189.00   191.00
       Aug   6.88   13.40   191.00   196.00
       Sep   6.37   12.20   196.00   203.00
       Oct   5.71   11.70   203.00   198.00
       Nov   5.84   11.70   198.00   199.00
       Dec   5.86   11.50   199.00   192.00
2012   Jan   6.07   11.90   192.00   198.00
       Feb   6.28   12.20   198.00
       Mar
       Apr
       May
       Jun
       Jul
       Aug
     Sep
     Oct
     Nov
     Dec
2013 Jan
     Feb
     Mar
     Apr
     May
     Jun
     Jul
     Aug
     Sep
     Oct
     Nov
     Dec
    SS       MS        F   Significance F
  69658.04 23219.35 671.5141 1.35E-56
  2766.208 34.5776
  72424.25

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%          Upper 95.0%
                                                Lower 95.0%
   4.336637 4.256837   5.6E-05 9.830175 27.09054 9.830175 27.09054
   1.890195 5.137494 1.92E-06 5.949258 13.47247 5.949258 13.47247
   0.743651 -3.07298 0.002897 -3.76514 -0.80531 -3.76514 -0.80531
   0.046515 16.12693 7.35E-27 0.657581 0.842718 0.657581 0.842718




    192.00
MILC Payment Forecasts Based on Futures
Settlement Prices July 31, 2012

                                            Predicted
                                Forecast      MILC
 Year   Month         Target     Mover      Payment
                                 $/Cwt.
                                                                     Actual
          Jan          17.53      18.80       0.0000    2.00
          Feb          17.90      17.03       0.3895
          Mar          18.14      16.30       0.8262    1.80
          Apr          18.35      15.66       1.2110
          May          18.55      15.85       1.2164    1.60
          Jun          18.28      15.24       1.3677
 2012
          Jul          19.67      15.51       1.8716    1.40
          Aug          19.46      16.55       1.3093
          Sep          16.66      17.08       0.0000    1.20
          Oct          16.77      18.32       0.0000
          Nov          16.86      18.80       0.0000    1.00
          Dec          16.87      18.88       0.0000
          Jan          16.88      18.87       0.0000    0.80
          Feb          16.89      18.55       0.0000
          Mar          16.90      18.16       0.0000    0.60
 2013
          Apr          16.92      18.10       0.0000
          May          16.92      18.01       0.0000    0.40
          Jun          16.91      18.06       0.0000
                                                        0.20
Actual Target                  Forecast Target
Actual Mover                   Forecast Mover
                                                        0.00
Actual MILC Payment            Forecast MILC Payment           Jan Feb Mar
Actual and Forecast MILC Payments ($/cwt)




 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
              2012                                2013
Settlement Prices July 31, 2012                                                           Soybeans                                                   Class III                                                 Class IV
                      Contract Month Interest
Report_dateContract Year        Open       Settle Price                         Contract Month Interest
                                                          Report_dateContract Year        Open       Settle Price   Report_date Contract Year
                                                                                                                                           Contract Month Interest
                                                                                                                                                     Open       Settle Price                         Contract Month Interest
                                                                                                                                                                               Report_dateContract Year        Open       Settle Price
 3/13/2009      2009 Mar                      3.7500       3/13/2009      2009 Mar                         8.83
  5/8/2009      2009 May                      4.1400        5/8/2009      2009 May                        11.34
 7/10/2009      2009 Jul                        3.455      7/10/2009      2009 Jul                     11.2825         4/3/2009      2009   Mar                                  4/3/2009      2009   Mar
 9/11/2009      2009 Sep                        3.145      8/14/2009      2009 Aug                           11                      2009   Apr                      10.78                     2009   Apr                       9.82
12/11/2009      2009 Dec                      3.8925       9/11/2009      2009 Sep                        9.845                      2009   May                       9.84                     2009   May                      10.14
 3/11/2010      2010 Mar                        3.555     11/13/2009      2009 Nov                         9.84                      2009   Jun                       9.97                     2009   Jun                      10.22
 4/23/2010      2010 May                         3.53      1/14/2010      2010 Jan                        9.685                      2009   Jul                       9.97                     2009   Jul                      10.15
 4/23/2010      2010 Jul                         3.61      3/11/2010      2010 Mar                        9.255                      2009   Aug                       11.2                     2009   Aug                      10.38
 4/23/2010      2010 Sep                        3.695      4/23/2010      2010 May                           10                      2009   Sep                      12.11                     2009   Sep                      11.15
 4/23/2010      2010 Dec                      3.7825       4/23/2010      2010 Jul                         10.1                      2009   Oct                      12.82                     2009   Oct                      11.86
1/11/2011       2011   Mar         702451        6.07      4/23/2010      2010 Aug                        10.07                      2009   Nov                      14.08                     2009   Nov                      13.25
1/11/2011       2011   May         229058      6.1525      4/23/2010      2010 Sep                      9.9025                       2009   Dec                      14.98                     2009   Dec                      15.01
1/11/2011       2011   Jul         220930          6.2     4/23/2010      2010 Nov                         9.79                      2010   Jan                       14.5                     2010   Jan                      13.85
1/11/2011       2011   Sep          46212        5.81     1/11/2011       2011 Jan              3447     13.505                      2010   Feb                      14.28                     2010   Feb                       12.9
1/11/2011       2011   Dec         277655        5.48      2/11/2011      2011   Mar         188811       14.16      3/25/2010       2010   Mar                      12.78      3/25/2010      2010   Mar                      12.92
 2/24/2012      2012   Mar         172793      6.4075      2/11/2011      2011   May         185347       14.29      4/23/2010       2010   Apr                      12.96      4/23/2010      2010   Apr                      13.64
 2/24/2012      2012   May         429122         6.44     2/11/2011      2011   Jul         114140       14.37      4/23/2010       2010   May                      13.31      4/23/2010      2010   May                       14.4
 2/24/2012      2012   Jul         278784       6.465      2/11/2011      2011   Aug           6175      14.175      4/23/2010       2010   Jun                       13.7      4/23/2010      2010   Jun                      15.15
 2/24/2012      2012   Sep          98185      5.8825      2/11/2011      2011   Sep           4681       13.96      4/23/2010       2010   Jul                      14.35      4/23/2010      2010   Jul                      15.25
 2/24/2012      2012   Dec         269587         5.58     2/11/2011      2011   Nov         161735      13.795      4/23/2010       2010   Aug                         15      4/23/2010      2010   Aug                      15.33
 2/24/2012      2013   Mar          46813         5.68     2/11/2011      2012   Jan          17396     13.8125      4/23/2010       2010   Sep                      15.23      4/23/2010      2010   Sep                      15.45
 2/24/2012      2013   May           2598         5.75     2/11/2011      2012   Mar          10789     13.6925      4/23/2010       2010   Oct                      15.13      4/23/2010      2010   Oct                      15.55
 2/24/2012      2013   Jul           3800      5.7875      2/11/2011      2012   May           5843      13.455      4/23/2010       2010   Nov                      15.03      4/23/2010      2010   Nov                       15.4
 2/24/2012      2013   Sep            767         5.53     2/11/2011      2012   Jul           3274      13.395      4/23/2010       2010   Dec                      14.85      4/23/2010      2010   Dec                      15.07
 2/24/2012      2013   Dec          19412          5.5     2/11/2011      2012   Aug             12      13.125      1/11/2011       2011 Jan              5679      13.46     1/11/2011       2011 Jan                32         16
 2/24/2012      2014   Mar            306      5.6125      2/11/2011      2012   Sep             15      12.785      2/11/2011       2011   Feb            5126      16.99      2/11/2011      2011   Feb              67      18.29
 2/24/2012      2014   May             57      5.6625      2/11/2011      2012   Nov           6054       12.51      2/11/2011       2011   Mar            5787      18.78      2/11/2011      2011   Mar             198      19.65
 2/24/2012      2014   Jul            234       5.685      2/11/2011      2013   Jan             14     12.5725      2/11/2011       2011   Apr            5162      18.63      2/11/2011      2011   Apr             239       20.1
 2/24/2012      2014   Sep                        5.53     2/11/2011      2013   Mar              7     12.5825      2/11/2011       2011   May            4394      18.24      2/11/2011      2011   May             249       20.2
 2/24/2012      2014   Dec            2305      5.425      2/11/2011      2013   May                    12.5925      2/11/2011       2011   Jun            3612      17.72      2/11/2011      2011   Jun             289       20.2
 2/24/2012      2015   Jul                      5.625      2/11/2011      2013   Jul              27     12.575      2/11/2011       2011   Jul            2383      17.25      2/11/2011      2011   Jul             221       20.1
 2/24/2012      2015   Dec             163      5.425      2/11/2011      2013   Aug                    12.4725      2/11/2011       2011   Aug            2220      17.15      2/11/2011      2011   Aug             198      19.55
                                                           2/11/2011      2013   Sep                    12.4125      2/11/2011       2011   Sep            2137      17.07      2/11/2011      2011   Sep             126      18.75
                                                           2/11/2011      2013   Nov             541      12.28      2/11/2011       2011   Oct            2033      16.82      2/11/2011      2011   Oct              99      18.29
                                                           2/11/2011      2014   Jul               1      12.25      2/11/2011       2011   Nov            1948      16.42      2/11/2011      2011   Nov              68      17.62
                                                           2/11/2011      2014   Nov              51        12.3     2/11/2011       2011   Dec            1871      16.43      2/11/2011      2011   Dec              61      17.44
                                                                                                                     2/11/2011       2012   Jan             118      16.12      2/11/2011      2012   Jan                      15.35
                                                                                                                     2/11/2011       2012   Feb              96      15.95      2/11/2011      2012   Feb                      14.24
                                                                                                                     2/11/2011       2012   Mar              87      15.95      2/11/2011      2012   Mar                      14.24
                                                                                                                     2/11/2011       2012   Apr              48      15.95      2/11/2011      2012   Apr                      14.29
                                                                                                                     2/11/2011       2012   May              38      15.95      2/11/2011      2012   May                      14.29
                                                                                                                     2/11/2011       2012   Jun              27      15.95      2/11/2011      2012   Jun                       14.2
                                                                                                                     2/11/2011       2012   Jul              15      15.95      2/11/2011      2012   Jul                      14.27
                                                                                                                     2/11/2011       2012   Aug              12      15.91      2/11/2011      2012   Aug                      14.33
                                                                                                                     2/11/2011       2012   Sep               9       15.9      2/11/2011      2012   Sep                      14.39
                                                                                                                     2/11/2011       2012   Oct               4      15.83      2/11/2011      2012   Oct                      14.46
                                                                                                                     2/11/2011       2012   Nov               4      15.85      2/11/2011      2012   Nov                      14.54
                                                                                                                     2/11/2011       2012   Dec               4       15.9      2/11/2011      2012   Dec                      14.61
                       Corn                                                                Soybeans                  2/11/2011       2013   Jan                      15.77      2/11/2011      2013   Jan                      14.68



  3/9/2012      2012 Mar              4590       6.54       3/9/2012      2012 Mar              1892    13.3175      1/30/2012       2012   Jan            4309      17.05      1/30/2012      2012   Jan             327      16.56
5/14/2012       2012 May               243       6.08     5/14/2012       2012 May               334      14.75      2/24/2012       2012   Feb            5475      16.06      2/24/2012      2012   Feb             340      15.95
  7/5/2012      2012   Jul          15882         7.68      7/5/2012      2012   Jul          12906      16.265      3/22/2012       2012   Mar            6125      15.72      3/22/2012      2012   Mar             354      15.35
 7/31/2012      2012   Sep         329305       8.065      7/31/2012      2012   Aug          15761       17.21      4/30/2012       2012   Apr            4365      15.72      4/30/2012      2012   Apr             338      14.80
 7/31/2012      2012   Dec         537103      8.0525      7/31/2012      2012   Sep          45282     16.5675      5/23/2012       2012   May            4697      15.23     5/23/2012       2012 May               287      13.55
 7/31/2012      2013   Mar         139364      8.0125      7/31/2012      2012   Nov         380969       16.41       7/5/2012       2012   Jun            4438      15.63       7/5/2012      2012   Jun             283      13.24
 7/31/2012      2013   May          31086         7.92     7/31/2012      2013   Jan          82451     16.3225      7/31/2012       2012   Jul            3682      16.67      7/31/2012      2012   Jul              92      14.45
 7/31/2012      2013   Jul          78134      7.8475      7/31/2012      2013   Mar          83311      15.335      7/31/2012       2012   Aug            4541      17.08      7/31/2012      2012   Aug             125      15.55
 7/31/2012      2013   Sep          10842       6.885      7/31/2012      2013   May          76010       14.52      7/31/2012       2012   Sep            4595      18.32      7/31/2012      2012   Sep             126      16.65
 7/31/2012      2013   Dec          64702         6.38     7/31/2012      2013   Jul          54796       14.36      7/31/2012       2012   Oct            3447       18.8      7/31/2012      2012   Oct              77      16.75
 7/31/2012      2014   Mar           1642         6.45     7/31/2012      2013   Aug            298     14.1025      7/31/2012       2012   Nov            3008      18.88      7/31/2012      2012   Nov              61      16.75
 7/31/2012      2014   May            360      6.4625      7/31/2012      2013   Sep            341      13.425      7/31/2012       2012   Dec            2890      18.87      7/31/2012      2012   Dec              63      16.76
 7/31/2012      2014   Jul            963      6.4775      7/31/2012      2013   Nov          22633     12.8375      7/31/2012       2013   Jan             948      18.55      7/31/2012      2013   Jan               8       16.4
 7/31/2012      2014   Sep             61      6.0875      7/31/2012      2014   Jan            189     12.8725      7/31/2012       2013   Feb             802      18.16      7/31/2012      2013   Feb               6       16.4
 7/31/2012      2014   Dec           3900         5.74     7/31/2012      2014   Mar             13     12.8575      7/31/2012       2013   Mar             672       18.1      7/31/2012      2013   Mar               7       16.4
 7/31/2012      2015   Jul             62      5.8375      7/31/2012      2014   May              1     12.8575      7/31/2012       2013   Apr             496      18.01      7/31/2012      2013   Apr               7       15.8
 7/31/2012      2015   Dec            480      5.6875      7/31/2012      2014   Jul              9     12.8975      7/31/2012       2013   May             421      18.06      7/31/2012      2013   May               7       15.8
                                                           7/31/2012      2014   Aug                     12.845      7/31/2012       2013   Jun             349      18.09      7/31/2012      2013   Jun               2       15.8
                                                           7/31/2012      2014   Sep                    12.7475      7/31/2012       2013   Jul             289      18.11      7/31/2012      2013   Jul                      15.75
                                                           7/31/2012      2014   Nov            1026     12.465      7/31/2012       2013   Aug             222       18.1      7/31/2012      2013   Aug                       15.5
                                                           7/31/2012      2015   Jul                     12.595      7/31/2012       2013   Sep             172         18      7/31/2012      2013   Sep                      15.92
                                                           7/31/2012      2015   Nov              57        12.1     7/31/2012       2013   Oct             157       17.9      7/31/2012      2013   Oct                       15.5
                                                                                                                     7/31/2012       2013   Nov             161       17.9      7/31/2012      2013   Nov                       15.5
                                                                                                                     7/31/2012       2013   Dec             148       17.9      7/31/2012      2013   Dec                       15.5
                                                                                                                     7/31/2012       2014   Jan               1       17.6      7/31/2012      2014   Jan                      15.44
                                                                                                                     7/31/2012       2014   Feb                      16.23      7/31/2012      2014   Feb                      15.51
                                                                                                                     7/31/2012       2014   Mar                         16      7/31/2012      2014   Mar                      15.57
                                                                                                                     7/31/2012       2014   Apr                       15.3      7/31/2012      2014   Apr                      15.63
                                                                                                                     7/31/2012       2014   May                      15.15      7/31/2012      2014   May                       15.7
                                                                                                                     7/31/2012       2014   Jun                         15      7/31/2012      2014   Jun                      15.76
                                                                                                                     7/31/2012       2014   Jul                      14.85      7/31/2012      2014   Jul                      15.82
CMEG Corn and soybeans futures settlement prices for:                                            Blue = Prelim

Hay prices based on Jan 06-Dec 08 Regression against Corn and Beans

                                                                                                  % Over
                                                                                       Ration      Base
   Feed:                      Corn*       Soybeans*        Alfalfa**        Mover
                                                                                       Value     ($7.35)/9.
                                                                                                 50 Sept12

                 Weight:          51.00           8.00                 41
     Price                        0.0%           0.0%             0.0%          0.0%
 adjuster (%
+/- Point Est)
Basis: ($.bu)                     -0.42          -2.25

                           $/Bu           $/Bu           $/Ton                         $/Cwt       $/Cwt




         2008 Jan                 3.98                              136
              Feb                 4.54                              138
              Mar                 4.70                              144
              Apr                 5.14                              146
              May                 5.27                              177
              Jun                 5.47                              174
              Jul                 5.25                              179
              Aug                 5.26                              179
              Sep                 5.01           10.70           175.00
              Oct                 4.37            9.83           171.00        15.53      8.80       19.7%
              Nov                 4.26            9.38           165.00        17.33      8.51       15.8%
              Dec                 4.11            9.24           152.00        15.43      8.09       10.1%
         2009 Jan                 4.36            9.97           149.00        15.74      8.35       13.7%
              Feb                 3.87            9.55           143.00        10.72      7.73        5.2%
              Mar                 3.86            9.12           137.00         9.43      7.54        2.6%
              Apr                 3.85            9.79           133.00        10.36      7.54        2.6%
              May                 3.97           10.70           138.00        10.97      7.87        7.1%
              Jun                 4.03           11.40           128.00        10.08      7.81        6.3%
              Jul                 3.60           10.80           120.00        10.26      7.18       -2.3%
              Aug                 3.33           10.80           111.00        10.04      6.75       -8.2%
              Sep                 3.25            9.75           110.00        10.93      6.51      -11.4%
              Oct                 3.61            9.43           109.00        12.35      6.78       -7.8%
              Nov                 3.65            9.53           110.00        12.86      6.85       -6.8%
              Dec                 3.60            9.80           110.00        13.99      6.84       -6.9%
         2010 Jan                 3.66            9.79           111.00        15.03      6.91       -5.9%
              Feb                 3.55            9.41           110.00        14.84      6.74       -8.3%
              Mar                 3.55            9.39           113.00        14.34      6.80       -7.5%
              Apr                 3.41            9.47           112.00        13.22      6.66       -9.3%
              May                 3.48            9.41           121.00        13.80      6.90       -6.1%
              Jun                 3.41            9.45           119.00        15.28      6.81       -7.4%
       Jul   3.49    9.79   117.00   15.66    6.88   -6.4%
       Aug   3.65   10.10   116.00   15.76    7.05   -4.1%
       Sep   4.08    9.98   117.00   15.50    7.44    1.3%
       Oct   4.32   10.20   118.00   16.58    7.71    4.9%
       Nov   4.55   11.10   117.00   17.24    8.02    9.1%
       Dec   4.82   11.60   121.00   16.96    8.42   14.5%
2011   Jan   4.94   11.60   121.00   15.20    8.53   16.0%
       Feb   5.65   12.70   129.00   15.89    9.48   29.0%
       Mar   5.53   12.70   142.00   18.23    9.64   31.2%
       Apr   6.36   13.10   161.00   19.43   10.84   47.5%
       May   6.32   13.20   187.00   19.75   11.35   54.4%
       Jun   6.38   13.20   180.00   20.32   11.26   53.2%
       Jul   6.33   13.20   189.00   21.03   11.40   55.1%
       Aug   6.88   13.40   191.00   21.43   11.97   62.8%
       Sep   6.37   12.20   196.00   21.78   11.45   55.7%
       Oct   5.71   11.70   203.00   19.56   10.92   48.6%
       Nov   5.84   11.70   198.00   18.45   10.94   48.8%
       Dec   5.86   11.50   199.00   18.47   10.95   49.0%
2012   Jan   6.07   11.90   192.00   18.80   11.05   50.3%
       Feb   6.28   12.20   198.00   17.03   11.40   55.2%
       Mar   6.35   13.00   201.00   16.30   11.64   58.3%
       Apr   6.34   13.70   207.00   15.66   11.84   61.1%
       May   6.33   14.00   215.00   15.85   12.04   63.8%
       Jun   6.37   13.90   201.00   15.24   11.78   60.2%
       Jul   7.66   15.60   198.00   15.51   13.12   78.4%
       Aug   7.45   14.32   205.70   16.55   12.91   75.7%
       Sep   7.65   14.16   212.39   17.08   13.20   39.0%
       Oct   7.64   14.12   219.64   18.32   13.34   40.5%
       Nov   7.64   14.07   225.14   18.80   13.45   41.5%
       Dec   7.63   13.58   229.32   18.88   13.46   41.7%
2013   Jan   7.62   13.09   233.54   18.87   13.47   41.8%
       Feb   7.61   12.68   237.71   18.55   13.49   42.0%
       Mar   7.59   12.27   241.63   18.16   13.50   42.1%
       Apr   7.55   12.19   245.38   18.10   13.53   42.4%
       May   7.50   12.11   247.92   18.01   13.53   42.4%
       Jun   7.46   11.98   249.56   18.06   13.51   42.2%
       Jul   7.43   11.85   250.74   18.09   13.48   41.9%
       Aug   6.95   11.18   251.56   18.11   12.97   36.6%
       Sep   6.47   11.18   249.05   18.10   12.48   31.4%
       Oct   6.30   10.88   242.50   18.00   12.16   28.0%
       Nov   6.13   10.59   236.62   17.90   11.84   24.7%
       Dec   5.96   10.61   231.24   17.90   11.58   21.9%
2014   Jan   5.98   10.62   225.54   17.90   11.49   20.9%
       Feb   6.01   10.62   221.45   17.60   11.43   20.3%
       Mar
       Apr
       May
       Jun
       Jul
       Aug
       Sep
       Oct
               Nov
               Dec


*Values for months without futures contracts are interpolated from preceding and following month values
** Based on estimated parameters from hay price forecast worksheet
***For preceding month to conform to advanced pricing
Blue = Prelim




                     Adjusted
                      Boston      Related    Actual or   Predicted
            Boston
                      Class I     Class I    Predicted     MILC
           Cl1 Price
                      Target      Mover       Mover      Payment
                       Price




                        $/Cwt      $/Cwt       $/Cwt       $/Cwt




                18.78     18.44
                20.58     18.15      14.90       17.33        0.00
                18.68     17.71      14.46       15.43        0.00
                18.99     17.98      14.73       15.74        0.00
                13.97     17.33      14.08       10.72        1.51
                12.68     17.14      13.89        9.43        2.01
                13.61     17.14      13.89       10.36        1.59
                14.22     17.48      14.23       10.97        1.47
                13.33     17.42      14.17       10.08        1.84
                13.51     16.94      13.69       10.26        1.54
                13.29     16.94      13.69       10.04        1.64
                14.18     16.94      13.69       10.93        1.24
                15.60     16.94      13.69       12.35        0.60
                16.11     16.94      13.69       12.86        0.37
                17.24     16.94      13.69       13.99        0.00
                18.28     16.94      13.69       15.03        0.00
                18.09     16.94      13.69       14.84        0.00
                17.59     16.94      13.69       14.34        0.00
                16.47     16.94      13.69       13.22        0.21
                17.05     16.94      13.69       13.80        0.00
                18.53     16.94      13.69       15.28        0.00
18.91   16.94   13.69   15.66      0.00
19.01   16.94   13.69   15.76      0.00
18.75   17.04   13.79   15.50      0.00
19.83   17.32   14.07   16.58      0.00
20.49   17.64   14.39   17.24      0.00
20.21   18.05   14.80   16.96      0.00
18.45   18.16   14.91   15.20      0.00
19.14   19.15   15.90   15.89      0.01
21.48   19.32   16.07   18.23      0.00
22.68   20.56   17.31   19.43      0.00
23.00   21.09   17.84   19.75      0.00
23.57   21.00   17.75   20.32      0.00
24.28   21.14   17.89   21.03      0.00
24.68   21.73   18.48   21.43      0.00
25.03   21.19   17.94   21.78      0.00
22.81   20.64   17.39   19.56      0.00
21.70   20.66   17.41   18.45      0.00
21.72   20.67   17.42   18.47      0.00
22.05   20.78   17.53   18.80      0.00
20.28   21.15   17.90   17.03   0.3895
19.55   21.39   18.14   16.30   0.8262
18.91   21.60   18.35   15.66   1.2110
19.10   21.80   18.55   15.85   1.2164
18.49   21.53   18.28   15.24   1.3677
18.76   22.92   19.67   15.51   1.8716
19.80   22.71   19.46   16.55   1.3093
20.33   19.91   16.66   17.08   0.0000
21.57   20.02   16.77   18.32   0.0000
22.05   20.11   16.86   18.80   0.0000
22.13   20.12   16.87   18.88   0.0000
22.12   20.13   16.88   18.87   0.0000
21.80   20.14   16.89   18.55   0.0000
21.41   20.15   16.90   18.16   0.0000
21.35   20.17   16.92   18.10   0.0000
21.26   20.17   16.92   18.01   0.0000
21.31   20.16   16.91   18.06   0.0000
21.34   20.14   16.89   18.09   0.0000
21.36   19.73   16.48   18.11   0.0000
21.35   19.33   16.08   18.10   0.0000
21.25   19.07   15.82   18.00   0.0000
21.15   18.82   15.57   17.90   0.0000
21.15   18.61   15.36   17.90   0.0000
21.15   18.54   15.29   17.90   0.0000
20.85   18.48   15.23   17.60   0.0000
Hay prices based on Jan 2004 - Jul 2008 trend


                      Price per Bushel       Price/cwt
  Feed:               Corn*     Soybeans*    Class III    Class
                                                            IV
Yeal          Month   $/Bu        $/Bu
              Sep       5.02        10.70                          For corn and soybeans, prices for near future
       2008   Oct       4.71          9.83                         Note: Need both near futures and prevous co
              Nov       4.41          8.95
              Dec       4.10          9.24                         For Class III and Class IV, use futures price
       2009   Jan       4.36          9.97        10.78     9.59
              Feb       3.87          9.55         9.31     9.45   Bold red values indicate final values
              Mar       3.86          9.12        10.36     9.64   Blue values are preliminary cash values
              Apr       3.85          9.79        10.78     9.82
              May       3.97        10.70          9.84    10.14
              Jun        4.03        11.40         9.97    10.22
              Jul        3.60        10.80         9.97    10.15
              Aug        3.33        10.80        11.20    10.38
              Sep        3.25         9.75        12.11    11.15
              Oct        3.61         9.43        12.82    11.86
              Nov        3.65         9.53        14.08    13.25
              Dec        3.60         9.80        14.98    15.01
       2010   Jan        3.66         9.79        14.50    13.85
              Feb        3.55         9.41        14.28    12.90
              Mar        3.55         9.39        12.78    12.92
              Apr        3.41         9.47        12.92    13.73
              May        3.48         9.41        13.38    15.29
              Jun        3.41         9.45        13.62    15.45
              Jul        3.49         9.79        13.74    15.75
              Aug        3.65        10.10        15.18    15.61
              Sep        4.08         9.98        16.26    16.76
              Oct        4.32        10.20        16.94    17.15
              Nov        4.55        11.10        15.44    16.68
              Dec        4.82        11.60        13.83    15.03
       2011   Jan        4.94        11.60        13.48    16.42
              Feb        5.65        12.70        17.00    18.40
              Mar        5.53        12.70        19.40    19.41
              Apr        6.36        13.10        16.87    19.78
              May        6.32        13.20        16.52    20.29
              Jun        6.38        13.20        19.11    21.05
              Jul        6.33        13.20        21.39    20.33
              Aug        6.88        13.40        21.67    21.14
              Sep        6.37        12.20        19.07    19.53
              Oct        5.71        11.70        18.03    18.41
              Nov        5.84        11.70        19.07    17.87
              Dec        5.86        11.50        18.77    16.87
       2012   Jan        6.07        11.90        17.05    16.56
              Feb        6.28        12.20        16.06    15.92
     Mar   6.35   13.00   16.30   16.26
     Apr   6.36   13.10   15.66   15.36
     May   6.08   14.75   15.72   14.80
     Jun   6.88   16.27   15.23   13.55
     Jul   7.68   17.21   15.63   13.24
     Aug   7.87   16.57   16.67   14.45
     Sep   8.07   16.41   17.08   15.55
     Oct   8.06   16.37   18.32   16.65
     Nov   8.06   16.32   18.80   16.75
     Dec   8.05   15.83   18.88   16.75
2013 Jan   8.04   15.34   18.87   16.76
     Feb   8.03   14.93   18.55   16.40
     Mar   8.01   14.52   18.16   16.40
     Apr   7.97   14.44   18.10   16.40
     May   7.92   14.36   18.01   15.80
     Jun   7.88   14.23   18.06   15.80
     Jul   7.85   14.10   18.09   15.80
     Aug   7.37   13.43   18.11   15.75
     Sep   6.89   13.43   18.10   15.50
     Oct   6.72   13.13   18.00   15.92
     Nov   6.55   12.84   17.90   15.50
     Dec   6.38   12.86   17.90   15.50
2014 Jan   6.40   12.87   17.90   15.50
     Feb   6.43   12.87   17.60   15.44
     Mar   6.45   12.86   16.23   15.51
     Apr   6.46   12.86   16.00   15.57
     May   6.46   12.86
     Jun   6.47   12.88
     Jul   6.48   12.90                   *Values for months without futures contracts
     Aug   6.28   12.85                   ** From Hay Price Proj Tab
     Sep   6.09   12.75                   ***For preceding month to conform to advanc
     Oct   5.97   12.61
     Nov   5.86   12.47
     Dec   5.74
and soybeans, prices for near futures (Closest month)
ed both near futures and prevous contract month to allow interpolation.

 III and Class IV, use futures price for PREVIOUS month, e.g., Feb 09 mover is higher of Jan 09 Class III or Class IV futures

values indicate final values
es are preliminary cash values
or months without futures contracts are interpolated from preceding and following month values
 ay Price Proj Tab
 ceding month to conform to advanced pricing
III or Class IV futures

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:5
posted:8/9/2012
language:English
pages:27
shenreng9qgrg132 shenreng9qgrg132 http://
About