Tor Value Chain Analysis (april 2011) - word version

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					     Terms of Reference for Export Value Chain Analysis
            Republic of South Africa and Egypt

1. Introduction

CBI is aiming at an increase of its integrated activities within the Agricultural sector. It therefore
has decided to further research the possibilities for support to this sector in the Republic of South
Africa (RSA) and Egypt. The principal aim of this value chain analysis is to assess whether or not
a more integrated CBI intervention in a (number of) sub sectors in RSA and Egypt is possible,
feasible and will contribute significantly to export growth and if so identify and define the
opportunities using a business case model methodology.

These Terms of Reference provide the basic framework for conducting a value chain analysis prior
to programme design for the Agriculture programme. Period of implementation: May 4 – August
15, 2012.

2. Background

The Centre for the Promotion of Imports from Developing Countries (CBI) contributes to
sustainable economic development in developing countries through the expansion of exports from
these countries. It does so by offering an integrated approach of different intervention types
targeting SME exporters from developing countries, European importers, business support
organisations (BSOs), policy influencers and governmental authorities.

CBI’s new integrated programmes carefully select value chains based on (1) opportunities to
unleash export potential, (2) the ability of CBI to tackle bottlenecks in the export value chain, (3)
the demand for CBI products by value chain actors, and (4) the possible significant contribution
of the programme to sustainable economic development.

Six distinct but interconnected sub sectors must be analysed:

        Fresh Fruits - EU
        Natural Ingredients for Pharmaceuticals and Cosmetics - EU
        Cut Flowers - EU
        Fresh Fruit and Vegetables - EU
        Cut Flowers - EU
        Food Ingredients for industrial use - EU

The mentioned sectors consists of many different subsectors. However, only a few will be relevant
for the selected countries of the CBI agriculture programme. Based on desk-study of the potential
in the EU market a selection of subsectors will be analysed.

3. Purpose

The outcome of the value chain analysis (VCA) will be used to prepare a ‘business case’, which is
the detailed programme plan explaining the relevance of the programme and the possible added
value of a CBI intervention in a value chain to be accepted by the board. This business case
requires and in-depth analysis of the value chain.

The objective of the VCA is:
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

                  (1) To give a realistic indication of the EU export potential;
                  (2) To give a realistic indication of the sustainable development potential (economic, social
                      and environmental);
                  (3) Regional analysis of country economic and export vibrancy.
               And from those sectors scoring positively on point 1 and 2:
                  (4) To visualise the value chain(s) in order to get a better understanding of the value
                      chain(s), its opportunities and bottlenecks, also in terms of CSR;
                  (5) To assess whether a CBI intervention will contribute significantly to export growth within
                      the programme period.

               Specific attention must be paid to:

               Besides the use of the VCA’s as a basis for the programme design it should also serve as a basis
               for stakeholder dialogue in the agriculture value chain(s) of the selected countries. Importance is
               given to the active involvement of stakeholders along the value chain during the analysis phase,
               both desk as well as field study phase, in order to secure ownership. Please take note for RSA of
               the Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) Strategy. The fundamental objective is
               to advance economic transformation and enhance the economic participation of black people in
               the South African economy. CBI’s mandate for interventions in RSA lies in the framework of this

               Social responsibility (also known as CSR) is a leading principle for all of CBI’s activities. Social
               responsibility is the responsibility of an organization for the impacts of its decisions and activities
               on society and the environment, through transparent and ethical behaviour.

               In view of the growing importance of social responsibility and sustainability, CBI began
               implementing a social responsibility roadmap in November 2009. In 2010, CBI used ISO 26000 to
               determine which issues needed to be addressed. The following core subjects were identified: (1)
               environment, (2) human rights, (3) labour rights and (4) fair operating practices. The CBI seeks
               to address the issues pertaining to these subjects in all of its activities. In practice this means, for
               instance, that the core conventions of the International Labor Organization (ILO) have been
               included as criteria in the audits for the selection of companies for export coaching.

               For decision making on the choice of subsector(s), the value chain should at least identify and
               take into account sustainability, social and environmental issues such as labour practices,
               biodiversity, responsible farming and processing, traceability, key chain players and donor
               organisations and eco-labelling option. Also issues like the number of companies present within
               each sector that fulfil the CBI selection criteria for Export Coaching Programmes (ECPs) as well as
               potential for backward linkages should be evaluated within this framework.

               As CBI its core competences lie in export promotion, cooperation with other national and/or
               international organisations working in complementary areas as that of CBI is found to be
               important. Identification of opportunities for cooperation in the value chain is there for part of
               these terms of reference.

               4. Expected Results

               a.   Inception report containing recommendations concerning relevant subsectors for each
                    country, based on supply and demand analyses. In this report the selection of subsectors
                    is brought down to a maximum of 18 value chains in the 6 sub sectors in the selected
               b.   The demand in the EU/EFTA countries and the opportunities these markets hold for
                    companies within the value chain(s) of selection. This includes, at least:
                        o Volume of current demand for the (quality of) products in the researched value
                        o Opportunities for growth, and conditions for export growth
                        o Requirements for the product to realise export growth.
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

               c. Sustainable economic development potential (social and environmental).
               d. Regional development potential (division of sectors over different areas of target
               e. Prepare a complete value chain map showing who are the chain stakeholders (actors,
                  supporters and influencers) in the value chain(s) (see annex 4).
               f. The number of potential participating companies1 in a country per chosen subsector(s)
                  and their experience with exporting, level of quality standards, and interest in exporting to
                  the EU;
               g. Identify the main bottlenecks (incl. finance and investment) along the export value chain
                  that hinder exports. In other words: why export currently is not reaching its full potential?
               h. What service provider(s) or institution(s) is/are in the position and/or show the potential
                  capacity to remove the bottleneck(s)?
               i. Describe what opportunities exist in the chain(s), in terms of possible improvements that
                  lead to significant increases in export volume. This should relate to the demand in the market
                  on the one hand, and the possibilities that exist within the chain(s) on the other hand.
               j. What bottlenecks can be solved by CBI modules and what are other organisations doing in
                  the value chain(s) that show potential for cooperation or an integrated approach? (e.g. lack of
                  market information)
               k. Risk assessment. Considering the bottlenecks along the value chain(s), the estimated level
                  of risk that the envisaged CBI outcome (increased exports) could not be reached. The
                  analysis should at least answer the following two questions for all the identified bottlenecks:
                      o Are the bottlenecks critical (i.e. the programme would fail to improve exports if the
                           bottlenecks are not removed as planned)?( y/n)
                      o What is the risk that these bottlenecks will not be removed on short-term (High-
               l. Stakeholder analysis. Considering the variety of actors that have a stake in or are
                  interested in developing the value chain(s) a mapping of the different stakeholders is
                  required. It is recommended to analyse the stakeholders using a stakeholder assessment grid
                  (see annex 3).
               m. Baseline data regarding the envisaged outcome are necessary as point of reference to
                  monitor and evaluate the results. This concerns both outcome and output baseline data. See
                  Annex 6 of this format ToR for implementation details.
               n. A recommendation how the existing CBI modules could be used to alleviate the bottlenecks
                  identified in the value chain analysis within a time span of 3-5 years; together with a draft
                  result chain (see annex 5).

               5. Methodology

               For this in-depth VCA, the contractor will be working in cooperation with local experts and (EU)
               sector experts, referred to as the research team. The expected project management model is
               depicted below.

                CBI has developed a module for SMEs who have potential for export to the EU, however, would need
               more/longer support than provided in the existing export coaching module. A business development module
               has been developed. More information can be obtained through the Programme Manager.
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

               Figure 1 – Model: project management research team

                                              on the EU market

                                                               VCA expert
                        VCA expert in RSA
                                                                 in EGYPT

               The contractor will have a parallel role of being the expert on the European market and
               coordinator of the local experts in the two selected countries, therefore being the lead researcher.
               This allows for a coherent comparison of the 18 value chains in the 6 sub sectors as well as the
               analysis of the export potential in the developing countries with the demand from the European
               market. For each country one or more local expert(s) will be subcontracted by the contractor.

               In addition, the lead researcher writes the ToR for the agriculture value chain experts in the
               respective countries. The ToR needs to be approved by the Programme Manager of CBI. The local
               experts are also selected and approved in close consultation with the Programme Manager.

               The contractor shall apply the following research methodologies:

               Desk review
               The desk research includes a research into the supply and demand side of agriculture export
               value chains. The contractor will collect all relevant studies and materials already produced by
               CBI and other donors, NGOs and/or research institutes in the recent past, and detail the
               outcomes of these studies, as a starting point to map the value chain and to reveal the main
               constraints. Detailed information on the demand side, among other sources, can be collected
               from CBI Market intelligence products. Also CBI sector experts are to be consulted as well as
               relevant CBI staff.

               The first identification of sectors is based on the analysis and the combination of information of:
                  -     Export trade statistics (including destination market statistics)
                  -     Realistic indication of the sustainable economic development potential (social and
                  -     Regional analysis of country economic and export vibrancy
                  -     CBI’s historical relations and competencies in relation to country export sectors.

               Based on the desk review a first selection of subsectors is made. Prior to the field visit this first
               selection will be discussed with relevant sector experts in CBI’s network and CBI Programme
               Managers. This check might still lead to changes in the final selection of sectors and regions to be
               visited during the sector-study in the field. If that is the case, these changes will be integrated in
               a revised version of this document.

               The results of the desk review are to be summarised in a brief inception report, which will become
               part of the final analysis. On the basis of the desk review, among other topics, the subsectors and
               the ToR for the local experts are (further) defined with the Programme Manager. Only after the
               report has been discussed and approved by the Programme Manager the in-depth field research
               can start.

               Field work - data collection
               Primary data collection in the field is undertaken by local experts. They are hired to conduct
               fieldwork to collect missing data, assess the specific situation and engage with potential
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

               stakeholders, collecting their views. The contractors’ primary role is to coordinate the data
               collection of the local experts to ensure that the right information is gathered. Once all the
               necessary information is collected, the contractor visits the destinations, compares the value
               chains and analyses the market potential for the exporting countries.

               The fieldwork comprises:

                   Identification of the key chain actors; interviews where possible
                   Interviews with the target companies (exporters); assessing why they are currently not
                    exporting (sustainable products) and what the constraints in their exporting business are.
                    Their needs (for BSO services, or internal skills) will then be the basis for the rest of the
                    interviews with other chain actors and stakeholders.
                   Interviews with (EU) importers in order to have a clear understanding about (sustainable)
                   Interviews with other chain stakeholders such as BSOs and ministries, financial institutions,
                    universities, donor organisations
                   Baseline data collection; statistics on number of chain actors, current exports, employment,
                    market trends, sustainability standards etc.

               Based upon the results of the field visit, the preliminary export study will be further developed
               into an in-depth study on the (max) 9 sub- sectors per country that will be selected on this first

               Finally, by the end of the analysis of the 18 value chains in the chosen 6 subsector(s) from in RSA
               and Egypt, CBI receives a final draft and a final report, separate recommendation as well as a
               presentation. The final report will be based on the annex 1, table of contents. It is required to use
               models in your report and presentation.

               Separately a 1 to 2 page document is expected with recommendations, where CBI can contribute
               – giving its expertise – to tackle the bottlenecks identified in the value chain analysis within a
               time span of 3-5 years.

               6. Process & Deliverables

               Phase 1

               a: Based on these ToR, the research team will draw up a Plan of Action (5 pages maximum). Plan
                  of actions will be sent to the Programme Manager, Mrs Henrique Postma-Hazelaar,
        , cc Mrs Alexandra van Savooijen,, by April 16, 2012

                   The Plan of Action will include the proposed approach of the candidate, methodology,
                   indication of experience and available networks in sector and region, a broad timeframe and
                   budget. It will also explain how the involvement of local experts and institutions will be
                   ensured (including overview of own network of local consultants in target countries). The plan
                   of action includes a clear description of the different product groups to be analysed. The plan
                   of action includes the resumes of the research team.2 In case you have already experience in
                   conducting VCAs please include an example.

               b: Based on the received proposals3, a maximum of three candidates will be invited to present
                  their Plan of Action. Confirmation hereof will be given by April 23, 2012 . This can be done via
                  skype or via real time presentation at the CBI office in The Hague. Presentations will be held
                  on May 3, 2012.

               c: Based on the presentations of the different Action Plans the Programme Manager will make a
                  selection of the most suitable candidate for further fulfilment of the research project.

                 The resumes are not included in the five pages
                 Selection criteria are: compliance to the ToR, resumes of research team, relevant institutional network in
               target countries and realistic budget. See Annex 7 for score matrix.
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

               Phase 2:

               Based on the desk review a revised Plan of Action will be presented. This plan of action includes
               an inception report presenting first results, information gaps and the proposed approach to fill
               these information gaps and the resumes of the proposed local experts. The revised Plan of Action
               also includes a ToR for the local consultants. Based on the desk research, a choice will be made
               for which subsectors in-depth field research will be conducted. The Plan of Action and the team of
               local consultants will have to be approved by the Programme Manager.

               Phase 3:

               The contractor will deliver a draft final report and a presentation with the findings and results to
               the CBI Programme Manager. After acceptance, the findings of the VCA are validated with the
               identified key stakeholders through validation workshops to be organised by the contractor in the
               countries. Based on the input of the stakeholders a final report is created. The final report should
               reflect the comments and suggestions made by the stakeholders.

               Phase 4:

               Final VCA report is made public and effectively communicated to identified stakeholders by the
               Programme Manager. The final report is up-loaded on CBI’s intranet and uploaded in the
               enterprise-development databank.

               1. A presentation of the plan of action based on the ToR.
               2. A revised plan of action and inception report after desk research.
               3. A value chain analysis draft final, final report and presentation (find the table of contents in
                   annex 1).
               4. One or two pages with initial recommendations for possible intervention areas within the field
                   of expertise of CBI.

               7. Resources and Timing

               Below is the template to be filled in by the contractor, as an indication of the total time required
               for this assignment. The work will take place in the period from May 4- August 15, 2012. Total
               budget available for this research is maximum € 72.000,- (excluding travel expenses). Budget for
               the contractor and local consultants has to be indicated separately.

               The result of the desk study will be a decision making moment in the research process. Based on
               the findings from the desk study the Programme Manager can decide to continue or discontinue
               the research process in total or for certain countries and/or subsectors.


                 Activity                                   Deadline
                 Preparation                                April 16, 2012,
                 Desk study
                 Primary Field research
                 Secondary Field research
                 Report     writing    /   presentation August 1, 2012
                 Report     writing    /   presentation August 15, 2012

               8. Management of Value Chain Analysis

                    The Programme Manager who is commissioning and approving the work is Mrs Henrique
                     Postma-Hazelaar, Africa Unit, CBI (, cc Mrs Alexandra van Savooijen,
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

            – Logistical Manager. Please address your communication to both persons
                    The coordinating expert will coordinate the work of the expert team and make the practical
                     arrangements for the research team;
                    Advisors to this study are further to be discussed with the Programme Manager (list of direct
                     stakeholders ranging from CBI External Experts, other CBI Programme Managers and
                     representatives from the sector and from the target country (government, BSO, SME).

               9. Research Consultant/Team

               The research team must meet the following criteria:

               Coordinating expert
                  At least 10 years of practical experience in the field of export or enterprise development, and
                   development of enterprise support institutions.
                  Preferably experience in the agriculture sector; substantial industry experience is an asset.
                  Experience with value chain analysis in developing countries; and has at least conducted one
                   or more value chain analyses before as lead consultant/researcher.
                  Proven record of international programme/project development experience.
                  Experience in, understanding of and a network in RSA and Egypt.
                  Outstanding inter-cultural communication, networking and coordination skills.
                  Excellent written and oral English; knowledge of other local languages is an asset.

                     Local experts
                    At least 5 years of practical experience in the field of export or enterprise development in the
                     agricultural sector.
                    Practical experience in conducting value chain analyses.
                    Strong network within target countries.
                    Excellent written and oral communication skills.
                    Excellent written and oral English; knowledge of other local languages is an asset.

                     (EU) Sector experts
                    At least 10 years of practical experience in the field of export or enterprise development, and
                     development of enterprise support institutions.
                    At least 10 years of practical European import-related experience in one or more of the
                     agricultural product groups mentioned above; substantial industry experience is an asset.
                    A network among European importers in one or more of the agricultural product groups
                     mentioned above.
                    Preferably experience in target countries.

                The coordinating expert has to be independent in his/her assessment of the value chain (-
                programme); therefore the expert, by taking on this assignment is excluded from any
                involvement in the implementation of the programme that is developed on the basis of this
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

               Annex 1 – Table of contents Value Chain Analysis Report4

                    1. Introduction

                          (general features and trends of the agriculture sector in the selected countries)

                    2. Management summary

                    3. Mapping the value chain

                          Visualize the relations between actors and stakeholders:
                              a. Chain stakeholders
                                        i. Actors and their functions
                                       ii. Supporters and their functions
                                      iii. Influencers and their functions
                              b. Flow of products along the chain (types and volumes)

                    4. Bottlenecks along the value chain

                          Covering at least:

                               a.   What are the market opportunities? For which sub-sectors/products and from
                                    which EU markets is there a demand?
                               b.   What are the key bottlenecks preventing exports?
                               c.   Are these bottlenecks critical? Are they solvable?
                               d.   Donor scan: which bottlenecks are solved by other donors/projects?
                               e.   What bottlenecks can be solved by CBI? Would CBI activities in addition to on-
                                    going activities resolve all identified constraints?
                               f.   Visual representation
                               g.   Summary: What are the main constraints (cluster constraints to max 8 key
                                    issues)? (see annex 8)

                    5. Baseline information

                         Covering at least:

                               a.   (Estimated) number of enterprises active in the chain/product groups
                               b.   (Estimated) value addition at each step of the value chain
                               c.   Currently exported volumes and amounts for the selected value chain (Volume
                                    and $ exports EU/Regional)
                               d.   Trends in supply and demand

                In case the study covers multiple value chains chapter 3 & 4 should be repeated for every value
               chain under investigation.
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

                    6. Recommendations for the CBI Business Case

                         What modules are needed to ensure that the export value chain performs well?

                               a.   Proposed CBI activities (type and number of modules) to enhance capacity in the
                                    import-export link, to achieve competent exporters, effective business support,
                                    informed local policy makers and pull marketing (or combinations of these).
                               b.   How much increase in exports is expected to result from the CBI intervention
                                    (target and attribution estimation)?
                               c.   What are opportunities for synergies due to integrated approach/alliances with
                                    other organisations actively supporting that value chain?
                               d.   Risk analysis (overview of issues related to CSR, human rights, political stability,
                                    other donor activities etc. to be considered when planning activities for the short,
                                    medium and long term).
                               e.   Result chains (see annex 5 and use annex 8).
                               f.   Draft Result chains for the chosen export value chain(s) (see annex 5).
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

               Annex 2 – Documents to be consulted and key informants
               A value chain analysis is based on the following sources:

               a. Sources and documents
                      Ecorys study (Trade Potential Index)
                      Experiences and lessons learned from evaluation of previous programmes
                      CBI Market surveys for the FFV, NI and Cut Flowers sector (available at
                      International Trade Centre
                      Donor reports present at CBI offices
                      Other relevant documentation and (value chain) analyses, available at CBI (to be
                       provided to the contracted expert)
                      U.S.        Department         of        State,      human          rights       reports:
                      UNEP:
                      UN              Division             for           Sustainable             Development:
                      International Labour Organisation:
                      Friends of the Earth:
                      WWF:
                      IUCN:
                      Business & Human Rights Portal:
                      World Business Council for Sustainable Development:
                      International Chamber of Commerce:
                      National Export Strategies
                      CBI selection criteria

               b. Key informants
                      CBI sector account manager and CBI country account manager (they should always be
                      European FFV, Cut Flowers, NI and FI importers and other stakeholders in the sector (e.g.
                       associations, suppliers, consultants, experts)
                      BSOs from CBI target countries
                      CBI local consultants
                      NL Embassy staff
                      EU DG for Trade
                      Participants from previous programmes in the mentioned sectors (if applicable)
                      Representatives from European companies
                      PSD partners
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

               Annex 3 – Stakeholder Assessment Grid

                Stakeholder management is key to the successful implementation of CBI programmes.
                Stakeholders are those agencies, organisations, groups or individuals who have a direct or
                indirect interest in the programme. Managing stakeholders is integral and continuous part of
                programme management. Stakeholder management must start right from the initial phase of
                value chain analysis. To effectively manage the stakeholders a stakeholder analysis is required. It
                is recommended to analyse the stakeholders using a so-called stakeholder assessment Grid.
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

               Annex 4 – Value Chain Map

               The value chain study should result in a well-founded analysis of
                          -   how the chain looks like
                          -   what the (1) key actors, (2) chain supporters and (3) chain influencers are
                          -   which bottlenecks exist that prevent export growth
                          -   who could/can/does resolve these bottlenecks

                Suggested sequence:
                Step 1:     Mapping the core processes in the value chain
                Step 2:     Identifying and mapping the main actors involved in these processes
                Step 3:     Mapping relationships and linkages between value chain actors
                Step 4:     Mapping Business Services that feed into the value chain
                Step 5:     Mapping the export environment (rules and regulations affecting the value chain)
                Step 6:     Mapping development partners (donor agencies) supporting the value chain

               Schematically, this should result in below example graphic:

                    FFV value chain Moldova

                   Chain                        Ministry of                  Educational                    Research and            Public Standards and
                   influencers                  Agriculture                 infrastructure                  development                  regulations

                                       MCC support (irrigation and
                                                                                ACSA                Table grapes and fruit
                                       high value agricultural VCs)
                                                                                                                                        MIEPO (BSO)
                  Chain                             Rural Development Agencies

                                     Input                    Small scale FFV
                                                                                              processor                  Exporter               Importer
                  Chain            suppliers                    producers

                                               High production risks
                                               due to climate             Low quality infrastructure

                                               Low productivity,          Lack of qualified labor force
                                               high costs                                                             Lack of information about market
                                                                                                                      preferences and requirements
                                                                          Low sector cooperation
                                                                                                                      Strong competition from other
                      Unsolvable                                          Poor communication between                  countries
                                                                          private and public sector
                      Solvable long term >5 yrs
                                                                                                                      Compliance with EU standards may
                      Solvable problem <5 yrs                                                                         take too long
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

               Annex 5 – Drafting a Result Chain (5DCED)

               The results chain provides the framework on which all programme activities, including impact
               assessment tasks, are built. It is therefore a vital starting point for all projects. Typically, a
               results chain will map out several different types of anticipated impact at three main levels:

               Market Level - In the value chains and markets involved, including product markets and
               sometimes also supporting markets for inputs, business services, and/or finance

               Enterprise Level - Among participating SMEs

               Household Level - In the households associated with participating SMEs (not required for CBI).


                        A documented result chain is developed for each intervention selected
                        The result chain is thorough, logical and realistic, showing as far as possible how the
                         selected intervention(s) lead to achievement of development goals
                        Relevant contributions of other initiatives are mentioned
                        The results chain(s) are sufficiently detailed that changes at all key levels can be assessed
                         quantitatively and/or qualitatively
                        The programme has clear documentary evidence of research and analysis that underlies
                         the logic of the steps in the results chain(s)
                        The documentary evidence supports the logic that the changes outlined are likely to lead
                         to lasting impact
                        Significant assumptions are explicitly identified in the document

                   Measuring achievements in private sector development: implementation guidelines, March 2010, DCED
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

               Annex 6 - How to collect baseline data

               Baseline data is required to be able to measure the change the CBI programme has achieved
               through its interventions. An evaluation of results is generally only useful if there is sufficient
               information about the state of affairs before the CBI programme took place, in order to compare
               these baseline data with the data obtained during and at the end of the programme. Therefore,
               baseline data need to be collected before the programme starts.

               CBI programme requires two sets of baseline data:

               1. OUTCOME baseline:

               The outcome of any CBI programme is export growth; therefore, the baseline data for the
               outcome level has to be the export volume at the outset of the programme. This data needs to be
               collected from a reputable source, such as trade statistics, or via a survey. Data sources should
               be sources that are available also at the end of the programme, so that the result is measured in
               the same way as the baseline.

               A complication in reality is, however, that in many cases export grows (or declines)
               autonomously; in other words if there were no CBI programme exports would grow (or decline).
               This is the problem of attribution: what part of the observed change at the end of the programme
               is attributable to the CBI programme and what is “happening by itself”. See attribution tool in the
               programme manual, Annex 4, for the method applied by CBI.

               During the VCA, the following baseline data need to be collected:
                  -   Current export levels (as recent as possible)
                  -   Past export levels (preferably last five years to estimate trends)
                  -   Any information (quantitative or qualitative) that is of importance for the future
                      development of export (such as sector outlooks, discussions on the anticipated impact of
                      trade regime changes, and the like)

               2. OUTPUT baselines:

               A typical CBI programme contains several projects that are developed to jointly achieve the
               outcome, namely export growth in the selected value chain. Projects generate outputs, such as
               improved BSO service delivery, or higher exports of directly supported companies, or more
               market knowledge among actors, and the like.

               These outputs are non-standard (unlike the outcome), and therefore need to be defined first,
               which happens in the business case development phase. Here, a result chain defines what the
               results on enterprise and service market levels are, and hence what change (=output) each
               project intends to achieve. Once this is clear, the task is to define indicators for outputs, as
               typically the intended output, e.g. better service delivery, cannot be measured directly. The
               business case, on the basis of the VCA defines what target values these indictors should have
               during the programme implementation, i.e. what should the indicators be like so that we can be
               sure the programme as a whole is “on track”. The indicators at the beginning of the CBI
               programme are the baseline information for the projects within the programme.
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

               Annex 7 – Score matrix

                                                              Value max. score

                    1. Compliance to ToR                      50
                    2. Resumes and network of research team   30
                    3. Budget                                 20
ToR Value Chain Analysis: Agriculture RSA and Egypt, 2012

               Annex 8 – Constraints

               Observed                       Why does this prohibit exports?          Potential donor to solve the
               constraints in VC                                                       constraint

               Observed constraints                  How can this problem be solved?            Can this be achieved
                                                                                                through     a    CBI

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