Challenges & Opportunities by 4il60c93

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									 Global Aging: Impact on
  Human Resources for
         Health
          Barbara J. Hatcher, PhD, MPH, RN
 Director, Center for Learning & Global Public Health
                        (APHA)
Interim Secretary General, World Federation of Public
            Health Associations (WFPHA)
       Presentation Overview

• Demographic overview & the age wave
• World/Region/Country specific
  demographics
• Impact on Human Resources for Health
• Future Trends
This is the reality in the year 2005
 The world stands on the threshold of a
 demographic revolution called global aging.
 The whole world is aging—and today’s
developed countries are leading the way.
 30%
          Percent of Population                                                26%
                                                                         25%
 25%      Aged 65 & Over:                      Year 2005           23%
          History and UN Projection
                                                            19%
 20%
                                                     16%
                                               14%                             15%
 15%                                    13%                              13%
                                  12%
                           10%                                     10%
        8%       9%
 10%                                                         8%
                                               5%     6%
        4%       4%        4%     4%     4%
 5%

 0%
       1950            1970             1990         2010         2030         2050
                                 Developed World           Developing World
       Source: UN (2005)
  Fertility in every developed country has
fallen beneath the 2.1 “replacement rate.”

                            4.0
                                              Total Fertility Rate,             3.6
                            3.5      3.3      by Country
                                                      2.9                                   2.1
Lifetime Births per Woman




                            3.0                                     2.8
                                                                                                              2.5         2.5
                            2.5
                                           2.0                                                    2.0
                            2.0                             1.9
                                                                          1.7
                                                                                      1.5
                            1.5                                                                         1.3         1.3         1.3

                            1.0

                            0.5

                            0.0
                                        US            France         UK         Canada            Japan       Germany      Italy

                                                                  1960-1965                 2000-2005
                                  Source: UN (2005)
  Life spans in the developed countries
         have risen dramatically.
    85
             Life Expactancy at Birth, by Country                              81.9

                                                    79.4     79.7     80.0
    80                         78.3     78.6
              77.3

    75
Years




    70    68.9               69.2                          69.1
                                      67.5
                                                66.5                66.0
    65                                                                       63.9



    60
             US                UK     Germany   France     Canada    Italy   Japan

                                        1950-1955      2000-2005
         Source: UN (2005)
                  Aging Exemplar




Source: U.S. Census Bureau
                Latin America & the
                     Caribbean
      • Total Population (in millions) - 518.8
      • Life expectancy at birth (in years)
        • Men 67.2
        • Women 73.6
      • Median Age 24.4 years old
      • Total Fertility Rate 2.5 children
        born/woman

Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005
                Latin America & the
                     Caribbean
      • % Population Aged 60+
        • Men 7.2
        • Women 8.7
      • % 60+ Population in Labor Force
        • Men 47
        • Women 12

Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005
                       United States
      • Total Population (in millions) - 293
      • Life expectancy at birth (in years)
         • Men 74.3
         • Women 80
      • Median Age
         • Men 34.5
         • Women 37.1
      • Total Fertility Rate 2.07 children
        born/woman
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005
                       United States
      • % Population Aged 60+
        • Men 15
        • Women 18
      • % 60+ Population in Labor Force
        • Men 23
        • Women 13

Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005
                                 Canada
      • Total Population (in millions) – 32.5
      • Life expectancy at birth (in years)
         • Men 76.4
         • Women 83.4
      • Median Age
         • Men 36.9
         • Women 38.8
      • Total Fertility Rate 1.16 children born/woman

Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005
                                 Canada
      • % Population Aged 60+
        • Men 16
        • Women 19
      • % 60+ Population in Labor Force
        • Men 19
        • Women 8

Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005
                                  Mexico
      • Total Population (in millions) – 106.2
      • Life expectancy at birth (in years)
         • Men 72.4
         • Women 78.1
      • Median Age
         • Men 24
         • Women 25.8
      • Total Fertility Rate 2.45 children born/woman

Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005
                                  Mexico
      • % Population Aged 60+
           • Men 7
           • Women 8
      • % 60+ Population in Labor Force
           • Men 65
           • Women 15


Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005
          Percentage Population age 60
         and over by world region, 2000
                    & 2050




Source: World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision, Volume II: Sex and Age. The
Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat
        Median Age by World Region
               1999 & 2050




Source: World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision, Volume II: Sex and Age. The Population
Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat
    The Challenge to Labor

• Shrinking Workforces & labor
  shortages
• Aging workers
•  Care demands & Needs
• Pressure to ↑ immigration
• ↑ cross-border outsourcing
   The Challenge to Labor

• Shrinking recruitment pool (in some
  countries)
• mal-distribution: Understaffing in rural
  areas
• Mal-distribution: Understaffing, both
  areas rural and inner-city
• Effective skill mix and utilization
Nursing as a Case Study
 Aging of the Nurse in US

• Between 1983 and 1998 the average
  age of working RNs increased by 4.5
  years to 41.9.
• Thirty-five percent fewer full-time RNs
  are observed today when compared to
  similar age groups of RNs entering the
  workforce 20 years ago.
Aging US Nurse Workforce

• Within 10 years, 40 percent of working
  RNs will be 50 years or older.
• As those RNs retire, the supply of
  working RNs is projected to be 20
  percent below requirements by the year
  2020.
Aging US Nurse Workforce

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports
  that jobs for RNs will grow 23 percent
  by 2008. That's faster than the average
  for all other occupations.
• About half of the RN workforce will
  reach retirement age in the next 15
  years.
Aging US Nurse Workforce
• The average age of new RN graduates
  is 31.
  • They are entering the profession at an
    older age and will have fewer years to work
    than nurses traditionally have had.
• RN enrollments in schools of nursing
  are down.
  • In fall 2000, entry-level BSN enrollment fell
    by 2.1 percent, dropping for the sixth year
    in a row, according to the American
    Association of Colleges of Nursing.
      Variations in nurse
       population ratios
• The variations can be a hundredfold
  difference
• The average ratio in Europe, the region
  with the highest ratios, is 10 times that
  of the lowest regions –Africa and South
  East Asia.
     Variations in nurse
      population ratios
• The average ratio in North America is
  10 times that in South America.
• The average nurse: population ratio in
  high-income countries is almost eight
  times greater than in low-income
  countries.
        Variations in nurse
         population ratios
•The low availability of nurses in many
developing countries is exacerbated by
geographical mal-distribution – there are even
fewer nurses available in rural and remote
areas.
    Variations in nurse
  population ratios in the
         Americas
100
 90
 80
 70
 60                      Haiti
 50                      Paraguay
 40
                         Venezula
 30                      USA
 20
 10
  0
  Number/10,000
    population
      Wisdom At Work
• Support and Protect an Older Workforce
• Enhance the workforce’s effectiveness
  through  technology
THANK YOU

								
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