Foresight for developing countries and economies in transition

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					             UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme




        Foresight for developing countries and
               economies in transition

           UNIDO’s Role as a Policy Advisor Promoting
           Technology Foresight – Present and Future




UNIDO                                               Investment and Technology
                               1
                                                         Promotion Branch
                    UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



                        The New Global Setting
 Increased financial, trade and investment flows
 Rapid and accelerating technological progress; electronics,
  ICTs, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells,
  nanotechnologies
 New international regulations and standards, trade, quality,
  labor, environment, intellectual property rights
 New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage
 Global value chains and production networks emerge in all
  types of industries managed by multinational companies and
  global buyers

          Companies and governments in developing countries are even
          more affected by changes on global setting

  UNIDO                                                    Investment and Technology
                                       2
                                                                Promotion Branch
                  UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


Capacity & resources deficiencies in developing countries
       Lack of conducive integrated policy and institutional
        framework
       Under-developed technology and innovation promotion
        capabilities
       Short-term thinking and reactive mode action
       System linkage failures and poor coordination
       Disconnection of application of new technologies from socio-
        economic problems
       Scientific institutions with strong and inflexible disciplinary
        focus
       Low technology and innovation intensity in industry
       Lack of funding for technology acquisition and diffusion
       Lack of human capital and increasing human resources crisis
        (brain drain, demography)
       Absence of adequate equipment and infrastructure
UNIDO                                                    Investment and Technology
                                    3
                                                              Promotion Branch
                   UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



Response to emerging challenges and opportunities

  Redefining policies compatible with global industrial
    interconnections
     – Where innovation and technology up-grading are key for
        competitiveness and sustainable development

        Connecting national industries to global value chains
          – Need of global positioning of national industries
             • Through comparing performance and drivers
          – Up-grading industrial capabilities
        Enhancing industrial governance

        Promoting foresight culture and application of foresight
         methodologies

 UNIDO                                                    Investment and Technology
                                     4
                                                               Promotion Branch
                     UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme

             Global industrial interconnections
                                       Global customers

              Large-scale, multi-                             Small-scale retailers
                outlet retailers




                Global buyers

National economy boundary
                                       Buyer and export
                                           agents


               Local customers                                Large-scale or multi-
                                                              plant manufacturers


                 Small-scale                                       Small-scale
                manufacturers                                       suppliers
    UNIDO                                                               Investment and Technology
                                    Domestic industrial cluster
                                              5
                                                                             Promotion Branch
           UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



Connecting national industry to global value chains


                     Global industries




                     Industrial Clusters




                     Governance system
 UNIDO                                            Investment and Technology
                  Framework conditions
                          6
                                                       Promotion Branch
                    UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


        Global Positioning of National Industries

              Enabling business
              environment                                        Global Links
              Regulatory framework                               Linking, liberating and
                                                                 learning
              Credit ranking
                                                                 FDI and domestic
              Infrastructure                                     capability building
              Cost of doing business                             Import of capital goods
                                       Performance
              Cost of production                                 Trade performance
                                       GDP per capita
                                       Competitive industrial
                                       performance
                                       Poverty
                                       Environment
                                       Gender development
                                                                Governance
         Capabilities                  Trade diversification
                                                                Industrial governance
         Human Capital
                                                                Economic transformation index
         Technology and innovation
                                                                Corporate social responsibility
         Modern infrastructure
                                                                Economic freedom


UNIDO                                                                  Investment and Technology
                                             7
                                                                            Promotion Branch
               UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


          Comparing Performance/Drivers
Drivers
                                      Country position

                          First      Second     Third         Last
                          Quartile   Quartile   Quartil       Quartile
                                                e
Performance                                                  X

Business Environment                                         X

Technology and                                               X
Innovation
Global linkages                                              X

Governance                                     X



UNIDO                                                 Investment and Technology
                                 8
                                                           Promotion Branch
                       UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


                Up-grading Industrial Capabilities
100




 75




 50




 25




  0
         Performance       Business    Technology and   Global Linkages        Governance
                         Environment     I nnovation

      UNIDO                                                        Investment and Technology
                                          9
                                                                        Promotion Branch
                      UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


                                    GOVERNMENT
                           Guides the overall strategy process
                           and focuses on strategic tasks and
                           policy issues




 PRIVATE SECTOR                                                   SUPPORT SYSTEM
Identify and assess                  Industrial                  Analyze trends
challenges and
                                    Governance                   Support clusters
opportunities and
organize collective                                              Strengthen capabilities
responses                                                        and global links



                                        REGIONS
                            Promote and Support the
                            development of local clusters
  UNIDO                                                            Investment and Technology
                                           10
                                                                        Promotion Branch
             UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



 Promotion of a foresight culture and application
         of the foresight methodology
 Establishing a transparent structured decision-making
  process
 Introducing a forward-looking attitude
 Provoking a creative and motivating decision making
  environment
 Stimulating a participative approach
 Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue
 Reaching consensus around shared visions
 Linking technology acquisition and diffusion to wider socio-
  economic issues


 UNIDO                                              Investment and Technology
                              11
                                                         Promotion Branch
                UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



                 What is foresight?
  B. Martin (1995):- Research foresight is “the process involved
   in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future
   of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of
   identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging
   generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and
   social benefits”

  L. Georghiou (1996):- Technology foresight is “a systematic
   means of assessing those scientific and technological
   developments which could have a strong impact on industrial
   competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life”


The future is „certainly uncertain“, foresight has to prepare us for a
variety of "futures"




 UNIDO                                                 Investment and Technology
                                  12
                                                            Promotion Branch
            UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



    What for Technology Foresight in developing
      countries and economies in transition?

 Improve decision making

 Guide technology choices

 Generate alternative trajectories for future development

 Enhance learning and improve preparedness for emergencies

 Motivate change




UNIDO                                              Investment and Technology
                             13
                                                        Promotion Branch
                 UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


Typical stakeholders in a Foresight exercise


 Foresight is about providing a framework for ongoing DIALOGUE
 between various societal actors, such as:

  –     Government
  –     Industry
  –     Academy - natural & social scientists
  –     Others, e.g. NGOs, trades unions, the media, banks, schools,
        the general public, etc.


 An important benefit for these actors is mutual (and
 collective) learning



UNIDO                                                   Investment and Technology
                                  14
                                                             Promotion Branch
             UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


        The context of the Foresight process




UNIDO                                               Investment and Technology
                              15
                                                         Promotion Branch
           UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


  Inclusion of Foresight in policy-making process




UNIDO                                             Investment and Technology
                            16
                                                       Promotion Branch
                 UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


                                Classes of Foresight methods



                 Criteria                                            Methods
   1.   Methods based on eliciting expert        − Delphi method
        knowledge to develop long term           − Experts panels
        strategies
                                                 − Brainstorming
                                                 − Mindmapping
                                                 − Scenario analysis workshops
                                                 − SWOT analysis
   2.   Quantitative methods that make                  − Trend extrapolation
        use of statistics and other data                − Simulation modelling
                                                        − Cross impact analysis
                                                        − System dynamics
   3.   Methods to identify key points of               − Critical/ key technologies
        action to determine planning                    − Relevance trees
        strategies
                                                        − Morphological analysis




UNIDO                                                                  Investment and Technology
                                          17
                                                                            Promotion Branch
                UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



                            Creativity
Overview of some
common methods
(Loveridge, 1996)               Science
                                fiction

                         Brainstorming


                     Scenario
                                     La
                     writing
                                     prospective
                          Combinations
                Essays     of methods
                                                 Workshops
                Delphi
                                        Impact
           Panels    Conferences        matrix

    Expertise
            •                                         Interaction
                                                      Alignment

UNIDO                                                        Investment and Technology
                                   18
                                                                  Promotion Branch
                     UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


                               Status of foresight
    Multiple activities and purposes sharing a name
    Content focus
      – Priority setting
      – Identifying ways in which future science and technology could address
        future challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities
    Structural focus (increasing tendency)
      – Reorienting Science & Innovation system
      – Demonstrating vitality of S & I system
      – Bringing new actors into the strategic debate
      – Building new networks and linkages across fields, sectors & markets or around
         problems

    Content and Structural Goals may be addressed simultaneously
      – All above may be at organisational, local, regional, national or supranational levels
    Also foresight carrying input from S&T futures into wider policy domains




    UNIDO                                                            Investment and Technology
                                            19
                                                                          Promotion Branch
              UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


           Context of move to open innovation

 Convergence of innovation and industrial policy in
  the context of knowledge economy

 Concept of innovation ecosystem

 Foresight role in creating shared strategic vision

 Emerging reorientation of innovation policy with new
  emphasis upon demand-side policies
   – Also an industrial policy based upon fostering clusters,
     platforms and supply chains
   – Key driver of development is linkage between local capabilities
     and effective demand


 UNIDO                                               Investment and Technology
                                20
                                                          Promotion Branch
              UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


                                    Four generations of
FIRST                                    Foresight
GENERATION
             SECOND
             GENERATION
Technology
forecasts                   THIRD
                            GENERATION
             Technology
             and            Technology,    FOURTH
             markets        markets        GENERATION
                            and the social
                            dimension      Distributed
                                           Role in
                                           Innovation System
  UNIDO                                              Investment and Technology
                               21
                                                          Promotion Branch
        UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme




   UNIDO Initiative on
         Technology Foresight




UNIDO                                          Investment and Technology
                         22
                                                    Promotion Branch
            UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


              Development objectives


 Contribute to enhancing the industrial competitiveness
  and expand trading potential

 Foster economic, environmental and social benefits at
  national and regional levels

 Definition of innovation policies and R&D programmes




UNIDO                                              Investment and Technology
                             23
                                                        Promotion Branch
           UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



                    Components

 Awareness building and foresight culture

 National and Regional / Supra-national capabilities

 Regional and International coordination –
  Partnerships promotion




 UNIDO                                            Investment and Technology
                            24
                                                       Promotion Branch
             UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



                     UNIDO support

 International Conferences and workshops on best practices
  and methodologies (national, supra-national and corporate)

 Promoting industry participation

 Task force of experts and methodology development for
  preparation and during foresight exercises

 Conducting foresight projects in selected productive chains
  and countries

 Cooperation in the post-foresight process


 UNIDO                                              Investment and Technology
                              25
                                                         Promotion Branch
            UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


             Tools and methodologies
 Book on International Practices on Technology Foresight

 UNIDO Manual on Technology Foresight

 Web page: www.unido.org/foresight

 CD-ROM collection

 Delphi on-line

 TF for Production Chains (national and supra-national)




UNIDO                                              Investment and Technology
                             26
                                                        Promotion Branch
             UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


         Regional or Supra-national dimension

 Foresight as a tool for plurinational R&D programmes

 Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through
  multi-country networking

 Reduce costs by sharing common activities

 Awareness of global and regional trends

 Joint vision and solutions for cross-border problems

 Concentration of plurinational production chains


 UNIDO                                              Investment and Technology
                              27
                                                         Promotion Branch
              UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



        Foresight Exercise for Production Chains



             Products        Production        Markets
                             processes



                          Identification of:
            Opportunities for the pluri-national production
                        chains and industries
           Required cooperation for technology up-grading




UNIDO                                                Investment and Technology
                                 28
                                                          Promotion Branch
           UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



          Special characteristics of the
               UNIDO approach:


        Participation of different countries

                   Plurinational


                  Multisectorial


         Complex production chains



UNIDO                                             Investment and Technology
                            29
                                                       Promotion Branch
              UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme




        Examples of UNIDO foresight exercises


        •   Multi-country level
        •   National level
        •   Sub-national level
        •   Company level




UNIDO                                                Investment and Technology
                               30
                                                          Promotion Branch
                UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


   Regional or Multi-country foresight exercises and
                       activities
Some issues have to be examined on higher than national level or
international cooperation is required

• Training Programme on Technology Foresight (2001-7)

• Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary (2003-7)

• Impact of EU-Accession to Agro-food and Automotive industries (2003)

• Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost (2005-6)

• Future of the Andean Products: Medicinal Plants (2006-7)

• Future of the Food Industry in 6 CEE countries (2007-9)



  UNIDO                                                Investment and Technology
                                 31
                                                            Promotion Branch
              UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


         REGIONAL LATIN AMERICA



    THE FUTURE OF

    THE FISHERY INDUSTRY

        South American Pacific Coast


UNIDO                                                Investment and Technology
                               32
                                                          Promotion Branch
                          UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


                                Fishery Productive Chain


 RESOURCES
                                            PROCESSING
        Marine

     Fresh water                                  Canned
                           EXTRACTION
     Aquaculture                                                         HUMAN
                                                  Frozen
                            Factory ships                             CONSUMPTION
                                                   Cured
                               Seine
INDUSTRIAL INPUTS                           Concentrated
                            Small scale
 Intermediate and final                      Hydrolysed
   agricultural goods       Aquaculture
                                                                       NON - HUMAN
       Industrial                                                      CONSUMPTION
  intermediate goods
                                                              Semi-refined            Refined
                                                 Meals and        oils                  oils
  Production services
                                                 crude oils
    Capital goods                                             Balanced food           Animal
    Infrastructure                                                                     feed


      UNIDO                                                      Investment and Technology
                                            33
                                                                      Promotion Branch
                  UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


                              Methodology
   Strengh and weakness of the                   National productive chains: fleets,
          environment                                    industry, markets

                             National Diagnostics



 Regional Panel             Regional Situation



National Panels          National Foresight Studies               Consultations



                         Regional Panel and Report



             Critical             Decision             Tools of
          Technologies        Making Processes          Action

UNIDO                                                              Investment and Technology
                                        34
                                                                        Promotion Branch
             UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


 Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost


                        Main results

 1) Agreements on regional cooperation for improving
  productivity and competitiveness

 2) Definition of regional R&D programmes

 3) Application of up-graded technologies




UNIDO                                               Investment and Technology
                              35
                                                         Promotion Branch
                UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


    Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost


        Recommendations for follow up programmes

-     Definition of a regional policy

-     Technology up-grading and investment promotion for
      re-conversion and modernization

-     Creation of new regional center for capability building and
      technology watch/road mapping

-     Establishing a quality mark of origin for the fish products of
      the region

UNIDO                                                  Investment and Technology
                                  36
                                                            Promotion Branch
              UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


         Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe




Project: Healthy and Safe Food for the Future - A Technology
    Foresight Project in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary,
    Romania and Slovakia
Contract no.: 43005 FutureFood6
European Commission – 6th Framework
Starting date: 01 February 2007
Duration: 2 years



UNIDO                                                Investment and Technology
                                37
                                                          Promotion Branch
            UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


        Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe



The immediate goal:
 to assist the total food chain in Central and Eastern European
  countries to reach international standards
 to enhance European competitiveness as a whole by developing
  an industry, which is synonymous with safety, diversity,
  sophistication and products of high quality.




UNIDO                                              Investment and Technology
                             38
                                                        Promotion Branch
                UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


           Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe




Project strategy:

1.   Mobilization of a variety of stakeholders groups
2.   A socio-economic scenario building exercise
3.   Interviews with specialists.
4.   A survey on key technologies
5.   Future vision building exercise
6.   Technology road mapping



 UNIDO                                                  Investment and Technology
                                   39
                                                             Promotion Branch
                  UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


          Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe
                                     Project Team

                   WIIW                   UNIDO                OPTI




                       FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION GROUP (FIG)


                      Czech          Slovakia     Croatia     Romania        Bulgaria
    B   Hungary      Republic
                     TC AS CR        BIC Group    NWMC        UEFISCSU       ARC Fund
        IEHAS


    C      Committee of high-level                 D        Knowledge institutions on
           national policy-makers                           food industry from every
                                                              participating country




UNIDO                                                                     Investment and Technology
                                            40
                                                                               Promotion Branch
                UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


            Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe




Work plan
flowchart




  UNIDO                                                Investment and Technology
                                 41
                                                            Promotion Branch
                  UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


                National foresight programmes

        • Chile - Identify strategic economic and technology sectors

        • Brazil - Production chains: textiles, plastics, wood,
          construction

        • Uruguay - Macro-sectors trends: food biotechnology,
          energy and transportation and logistics

        • Venezuela - Application of the results of the TF exercise

        • Ukraine – Establish the institutional framework and
          capability

        • Romania - National STI Strategy




UNIDO                                                    Investment and Technology
                                    42
                                                              Promotion Branch
                UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


                    Sub-national foresight

Specific problems of regions, individual subnational bodies
  of large countries

        • Foresight Programme for Irkutsk – Russian Federation




UNIDO                                                  Investment and Technology
                                 43
                                                            Promotion Branch
           UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



                  Corporate Foresight


 Technology Fairs of the Future


 Module 4: Training on Corporate Foresight – BIC Group,
  Bratislava, Slovakia




UNIDO                                             Investment and Technology
                            44
                                                       Promotion Branch
             UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


                  Future UNIDO efforts


 Support companies in developing countries and
  economies in transition to set up foresight capabilities

 Establish a connection between the construction of
  alternative future visions through foresight exercises
  and the definition of industrial policies and governance
  framework.




UNIDO                                               Investment and Technology
                              45
                                                         Promotion Branch
        UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme




 Regional Initiative on
  Technology Foresight in
  CEE/NIS
Regional Initiative on
Technology Foresight in
CEE/NIS
- Capacity Building

UNIDO                                          Investment and Technology
                         46
                                                    Promotion Branch
                   UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


           IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CEE/NIS TF INITIATIVE
              AWARENESS       EVENTS        TRAINING     STUDIES         COORDINATION
              BUILDING                                                   AND
                                                                         PARTNERSHIPS
                              - REGIONAL
    2001      INTERNET LIFE   CONFERENCE MODULE 1        METHODOS and    CORE
                              - Experts   Budapest       TOOLS           GROUP
                              Group Meet.
                                                         EU ACCESSION
    2002      WEB PAGE            Kiev      - Manuals    IMPACT        NATIONAL
                               Conference   - CD ROM     Automotive    FOCAL POINTS
                                                         Agro-food
                                            - MODULE 1   BIOTECHNOLOGY
    2003      e-MEDIA          TF Summit    Turkey                     INDUSTRIAL
                                  2003      - MODULE 2                 PARTNERS
                                Budapest    Prague
                                            - MODULE 1
    2004/07   e-POLICY         TF Summit    Gebze, Turkey PRODUCTION     - REGIONAL R&D
                                  2007      - MODULE 2    CHAINS         PROGRAMS
                                Budapest    Prague
                                            - MODULE 3                   - REGIONAL
                                            Budapest                     VIRTUAL CENTRE
                                            - MODULE 4
                                            Bratislava


UNIDO                                                                   Investment and Technology
                                            47
                                                                             Promotion Branch
              UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme




Steering Committee              UNIDO                Service Unit


                              Managing board

      TF                                                           TF
    Studies                                                      Methods
                                     fp
                         fp                fp1
                                                                   TF
                                                                 Training
                    fp                         fp2
Regional                  IMU             fp                        TF
Virtual Center                                                    Summit

(RVC)
 UNIDO                                                    Investment and Technology
                                    48
                                                               Promotion Branch
            UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


                TRAINING PROGRAMME

 Module 1: Training on Organizing Foresight programmes –
  TUSSIDE/TUBITAK, Gebze, Turkey

 Module 2: Training on TF Methodologies – Technology
  Centre AS CR, Prague, Czech Republic

 Module 3: Seminar on Technology Foresight for Decision-
  Makers – IE HAS/IPTS, Budapest, Hungary

 Module 4: Training on Corporate Foresight – BIC Group,
  Bratislava, Slovakia

 Module 5: Training of Trainers - ITPS

UNIDO                                              Investment and Technology
                             49
                                                        Promotion Branch
            UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme


               GLOBAL FORUM EVENTS


 2007 Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary



 2008 Technology Fair of the Future – Izmir, Turkey




UNIDO                                              Investment and Technology
                             50
                                                        Promotion Branch
              UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme




                            Technology Foresight Summit 2007
                               Highlight: Water Productivity
                                27-29 September 2007
                                  Budapest, Hungary


                                             Ministry of Economy and Transport
                                                 of the Republic of Hungary
        organized in cooperation with




UNIDO                                                        Investment and Technology
                                        51
                                                                  Promotion Branch
            UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



                  TF Summit-2007

Immediate objectives:
 To organize a regular summit
 To address a selected highlight area through
  undertaking regional and cross-regional discussions
 To interact on the results of TF exercises

Expected outputs:
 Strengthened and sustained awareness
 Recommendation for high-level decision-makers
 Encouragement of TF programmes
 Application of results of FT studies for selected
  Highlighted Areas
 Identification of relevant problems in the regions
UNIDO                                              Investment and Technology
                             52
                                                        Promotion Branch
              UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme



        Components of the TF Summit-2007

Special emphasis on water productivity addressing
  industry related technologies: protection of water
  resources and key technologies for zero discharge

                           through:

1.   Water Productivity Symposium
2.   Water Technology Fair of the Future
3.   Ministerial Round Table
4.   Technology Foresight thematic panels


UNIDO                                                Investment and Technology
                               53
                                                          Promotion Branch
           UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme




   2008 Technology Fair of the Future


   ESBAS-Aegean Free Zone

   Izmir, Turkey, May 2008



UNIDO                                             Investment and Technology
                            54
                                                       Promotion Branch
                UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme




        Objectives of the Technology Fair:
        1. to offer participating enterprises and
           technology institutes the opportunity to present
           new ideas, designs, concepts, future products
           and markets as well as foresight visions in their
           fields of specialization.
        2. offer participants a platform to forge
           partnerships, linkages, strategic alliances and
           joint ventures for improved access to markets


UNIDO                                                  Investment and Technology
                                 55
                                                            Promotion Branch
               UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme




                       www.unido.org/foresight



        Dr.-Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca
        Pilar Rodriguez-Ruiz
        INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY PROMOTION BRANCH




UNIDO                                                 Investment and Technology
                                 56
                                                           Promotion Branch

				
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