BMPs and the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model

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					Chesapeake Bay Program
     Model Update
                Rich Batiuk
       Associate Director for Science
     U.S. EPA Chesapeake Bay Program
  Everything You Ever
 Wanted to Know about
Chesapeake Bay Program
Modeling But Were Afraid
    to Ask a Modeler
      Role of Models
Clarity
                                     What is the concentration?
          Research      Monitoring   What are the filtering
                                     rates?
                                     Where are the streams?


                                     What is the environmental
                 Modeling            effect of any particular
                                     management scheme?


                                     How do we balance many
               Management            different interests?
Power
CBP Modeling Structure
       Regional Acid Deposition Model




    Watershed Model




  Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package
     Purpose of Watershed Model
   Results help direct tributary strategy
    development
       What’s the impact of BMP implementation on
        Nitrogen/Phosphorus/Sediment loads?
       What yields the biggest bang and the biggest
        bang for the buck?
   Load allocations
       Equitably account for all load sources.
   Measure of cap maintenance
     Purpose of Watershed Model
   Provide loads to the Estuarine Model
       What’s the impact of BMP implementation on
        living resources  water quality?
       What yields the biggest bang and the biggest
        bang for the buck?
       Remove impairments by 2010
     Watershed Model Inputs
   Nutrient Applications to Agricultural Land
   Landuses
   Non-Point Source BMP Implementation
   Point Sources
   Septic Loads
   Atmospheric Deposition
     Watershed Model Inputs
   Nutrient Applications to Agricultural Land
   Landuses
   Non-Point Source BMP Implementation
   Point Sources
   Septic Loads
   Atmospheric Deposition
  Watershed Model Simulation

Input
Data                    River Simulation
        Opportunities
          for BMPs

            Land
         Simulation
                             Output
                 Watershed Model Nonpoint Source BMPs
  Agricultural BMPs               How Credited               TN Efficiency              TP Efficiency            SED Efficiency
    Conservation Tillage          Landuse Conversion                N/A                       N/A                       N/A
   Riparian Forest Buffers       Landuse Conversion +       25-85% depending on       50-75% depending on       50-75% depending on
        (Agriculture)                 Efficiency           hydrogeomorphic region    hydrogeomorphic region    hydrogeomorphic region
   Riparian Grass Buffers        Landuse Conversion +       17-58%depending on        50-75%depending on        50-75%depending on
        (Agriculture)                 Efficiency           hydrogeomorphic region    hydrogeomorphic region    hydrogeomorphic region
    Wetland Restoration         Currently Solely Landuse   Same as riparian forest   Same as riparian forest   Same as riparian forest
       (Agriculture)                  Conversion                  buffers                   buffers                   buffers
Land Retirement (Agriculture)     Landuse Conversion                N/A                       N/A                       N/A
  Tree Planting (Row Crop)        Landuse Conversion                N/A                       N/A                       N/A
 Nutrient Management Plan
                                  Built into Simulation        Under Review              Under Review                   N/A
  Implementation (Crop)
Conservation Plans (Excluding
Conservation-Tillage and
Nutrient Management) Total
OR Reported by the Following
Landuses:

     Conservation Plans
     on Conventional-Till
                                       Efficiency                   8%                       15%                       25%

     Conservation Plans
     on Conservation-Till
                                       Efficiency                   3%                        5%                        8%

 Conservation Plans on Hay             Efficiency                   3%                        5%                        8%
Conservation Plans on Pasture          Efficiency                   5%                       10%                       14%
                Watershed Model Nonpoint Source BMPs
  Agricultural BMPs             How Credited       TN Efficiency                TP Efficiency               SED Efficiency
        Cover Crops

Cover Crops on Conventional-                           30-45%                        7-15%                       10-20%
                                  Efficiency
             Till                              depending on planting date   depending on planting date   depending on planting date

Cover Crops on Conservation-                           30-45%
                                  Efficiency                                           0%                           0%
            Till                               depending on planting date

  Commodity Cereal Cover                               17-25%
                                  Efficiency                                           0%                           0%
         Crops                                 depending on planting date
 Animal Waste Management
 Systems:
    Livestock Systems –
 Designate types of systems
   with associations to the
 number of Animal Units and
                                  Efficiency             75%                         75%                           N/A
types of animals each system
          is handling
Poultry Systems – Designate
    types of systems with
associations to the number of
  Animal Units and types of
                                  Efficiency             20%                         20%                           N/A
   animals each system is
           handling
  Barnyard Runoff Control /
 Loafing Lot Management -                             20%                          20%
  Designate types of runoff
controls with associations to
                                  Efficiency         (10%                         (10%                            40%
 the number of Animal Units                       Supplemental)                Supplemental)
    and types of animals
                Watershed Model Nonpoint Source BMPs
  Agricultural BMPs             How Credited                 TN Efficiency                TP Efficiency            SED Efficiency
Alternative Uses of Manure /                             Reduction in nutrient mass   Reduction in nutrient mass
                               Built into Preprocessor                                                                  N/A
      Manure Transport                                      applied to cropland          applied to cropland
 Off-stream Watering with
 Stream Fencing (Pasture)
                                     Efficiency                   60%                          60%                     75%
Off-stream Watering without
      Fencing (Pasture)
                                     Efficiency                   30%                          30%                     38%
 Off-stream Watering with
    Stream Fencing and               Efficiency                   20%                          20%                     40%
Rotational Grazing (Pasture)
                  Watershed Model Nonpoint Source BMPs
   Urban and Mixed
                               How Credited         TN Efficiency   TP Efficiency   SED Efficiency
     Open BMPs

  Stormwater Management
  Reported by the Following
         Categories:


  Wet Ponds and Wetlands           Efficiency           30%             50%              80%
  Dry Detention Ponds and
  Hydrodynamic Structures
                                   Efficiency           5%              10%              10%
Dry Extended Detention Ponds       Efficiency           30%             20%              60%
     Infiltration Practices        Efficiency           50%             70%              90%
      Filtering Practices          Efficiency           40%             60%              85%
      Roadway Systems                 TBD            Under Review    Under Review     Under Review

Impervious Surface Reduction
                               Landuse Conversion        N/A             N/A              N/A
  / Non-Structural Practices

 Street Sweeping and Catch
                                      TBD            Under Review    Under Review     Under Review
        Basin Inserts


     Stream Restoration          Load Reduction      0.02 lbs/ft    0.0035 lbs/ft    2.55 lbs/ft
                 Watershed Model Nonpoint Source BMPs
   Urban and Mixed
                                  How Credited          TN Efficiency   TP Efficiency   SED Efficiency
     Open BMPs
Erosion and Sediment Control          Efficiency            33%             50%             50%
Nutrient Management (Urban)           Efficiency            17%             22%              N/A
 Forest Conservation (Urban)      Landuse Conversion        N/A             N/A              N/A
   Riparian Forest Buffers       Landuse Conversion +
          (Urban)                     Efficiency            25%             50%             50%
Riparian Grass Buffers (Urban)    Landuse Conversion         N/A             N/A             N/A

    Tree Planting (Urban)         Landuse Conversion         N/A             N/A             N/A

Abandoned Mine Reclamation        Landuse Conversion         N/A             N/A             N/A

  Riparian Forest Buffers /
                                  Landuse Conversion         N/A             N/A             N/A
 Tree Planting (Mixed Open)

    Nutrient Management
        (Mixed Open)
                                      Efficiency            17%             22%              N/A
                 Watershed Model Nonpoint Source BMPs
    Resource BMPs                How Credited          TN Efficiency   TP Efficiency   SED Efficiency
 Forest Harvesting Practices          Efficiency           50%             50%             50%
  Structural Tidal Shoreline
                                 Water Quality Model        N/A             N/A             N/A
       Erosion Control
Non-Structural Tidal Shoreline
                                 Water Quality Model        N/A             N/A             N/A
       Erosion Control



      Septic BMPs                How Credited          TN Efficiency   TP Efficiency   SED Efficiency
Septic Connections/Hookups       Removal of Systems         N/A             N/A             N/A

    Septic Denitrification            Efficiency           50%             N/A              N/A

       Septic Pumping                 Efficiency           5%              N/A              N/A
    NPS BMPs Efforts Not Currently
    Credited in the Model…But on the List
   Animal Feed Additives
   Yield Reserve
   Manure Additives
   Horse Pasture Management
   Carbon Sequesteration
   Mortality Composters
   Ammonia Emissions Controls in Animal Agriculture
   Voluntary Air Emission Controls within the Jurisdicitons
    (Utility, Industrial and Mobile)
   Street Sweeping
   Alternative Uses of Manure
   Alternative Cropping Systems/Ag Operations
   SAV Planting/Restoration; Oyster Reef Restoration
       Adding to the “Approved”BMP List

   Review/approval through the Bay Program’s
    Tributary Strategy Workgroup
   BMP definition
   Recommended efficiency with technical
    literature documentation
   How the BMP will be handled by the
    watershed model
   How the BMP will be tracked (units, acres,
    etc.)
     Opportunities for BMPs
   BMPs that revise inputs
       Alternative uses of manure
       Nutrient applications to cropland
       BMPs involving landuse conversions
 BMPs with nutrient and sediment reduction
  efficiencies
 BMPs with both landuse conversions and
  reduction efficiencies
    Manure Applications to Cropland
Uncollected
                   Pasture            Volatilization

                                                                   Volatilization
  Beef
 Dairy
              Collected
 Swine                                                    Monthly Applications
Layers                    Enclosure
Broilers
Turkeys
                                                              Spring/Fall
                                                Storage       Applications Crop
Volatilization
                          Barnyard
                                           Monthly Applications

       Runoff                                                           Runoff
                          Alternative Uses of Manure
                             Pre-BMP Nutrients Available for Crop Applications in Delaware
                             Post-BMP Nutrients Applied to Cropland in Delaware
                     12

                                                          •Alternative uses of manure encompasses
                     10
                                                          removing from the Chesapeake Bay watershed
                                                          nutrients available for crop applications.
                                                          •Jurisdictions need to track where the nutrients
                      8
                                                          are removed from, how much, and manure/litter
(million lbs/year)




                                                          nutrient content.

                      6



                      4



                      2


                                9.548                                            3.802
                      0
                               Nitrogen                                       Phosphorus
     Opportunities for BMPs
   BMPs that revise inputs
       Alternative uses of manure
       Nutrient applications to cropland
       BMPs involving landuse conversions
   BMPs with nutrient and sediment reduction
    efficiencies
   BMPs with both landuse conversions and
    reduction efficiencies
                      Nutrient Applications to Cropland
                      2001 Implementation Level              2001 Theoretical Maximum Implementation
                  7

                                                               •BMP implementation levels tracked by state
                  6                                            agencies and submitted to CBPO.
                                                               •Nutrient Management Plan Implementation is a
                                                               separate module in the Watershed Model where
                  5
                                                               crops receive only 130% of need/uptake for
                                                               both nitrogen and phosphorus.
(million acres)




                  4                                            •Yellow areas represent “windows of
                                                               opportunity” for traditional or tracked practices.

                  3


                  2


                  1

                                                            2.884
                  0
                                           Nutrient Management Plan Implementation
   Nutrient Management Plan Implementation
             •Watershed Model accounts for both N- and P-based nutrient management.
             •Fertilizer application data from state agricultural agencies.



Fertilizer
                      30% Crop                   Fertilizer          30% Crop
                        Need                                           Need


Manure                                            Manure
                         Crop                                           Crop
                         Need                                           Need
 AtDep                                            AtDep
Mineral                                           Mineral
             Nutrient Management Plan Implementation
                                    Watershed Model accounts for both N-
                                    and P-based nutrient management.


Fertilizer

                                                           Move
               30% Crop                   30% Crop                         30% Crop
Manure           Need     Manure            Need           Manure            Need

                Crop                        Crop                            Crop
 AtDep          Need      AtDep             Need           AtDep            Need
Mineral                   Mineral                          Mineral
     Opportunities for BMPs
   BMPs that revise inputs
       Alternative uses of manure
       Nutrient applications to cropland
       BMPs involving landuse conversions
   BMPs with nutrient and sediment reduction
    efficiencies
   BMPs with both landuse conversions and
    reduction efficiencies
•Light orange generally
represents agricultural land in
1990 EPA EMAP / LANSAT-
derived imagery.
•Source of agricultural land
categories and area in the
model is U.S. Department of
Agriculture “Census of
Agriculture” - Published
1982/1987/1992/1997.
•County Census information is
distributed to model
segments.
•Agricultural land area
projections directed by states.
•In 2001, agricultural land
covered about 9.4 million
acres or 23% of the total Bay
watershed area.
•The watershed model
estimates that agriculture
accounts for 40% of the TN
load, 47% of the TP load, and
62% of the land-based
sediment load to the Bay in
2001.
                           Agricultural BMPs Involving Landuse Conversions

                             2001 Implementation Level                       2001 Theoretical Maximum Implementation
                  4.5

                  4.0
                                                                         •BMP implementation levels tracked by state
                                                                         agencies and submitted to CBPO.
                  3.5
                                                                         •Load reductions attributed to movement to a
                  3.0
                                                                         lower-exporting landuse.
                                                                         •Yellow areas represent “windows of
(million acres)




                  2.5                                                    opportunity” for traditional or tracked practices.

                  2.0

                  1.5

                  1.0

                  0.5
                           1.934            0.045             0.076                0.008            0.005             0.000
                  0.0
                        Conservation   Land Retirement   Conventional Till      Tree Planting     Wetland       Pasture to Mixed
                          Tillage                          to Pasture                            Restoration         Open
     Opportunities for BMPs
   BMPs that revise inputs
       Alternative uses of manure
       Nutrient applications to cropland
       BMPs involving landuse conversions
   BMPs with nutrient and sediment reduction
    efficiencies
   BMPs with both landuse conversions and
    reduction efficiencies
                           Agricultural BMPs with Reduction Efficiencies

                             2001 Implementation Level                 2001 Theoretical Maximum Implementation
                  10.0

                   9.0                                                  •BMP implementation levels tracked by state
                                                                        agencies and submitted to CBPO.
                   8.0
                                                                        •BMP efficiencies for removing N, P, and SED are
                   7.0    N = 3-8%
                                                                        collaboration of TSWG participants after review
                                                                        of literature or agency/extension service
(million acres)




                          P = 5-15%
                   6.0   SED = 8-25%                                    recommendations.
                                                                        •Yellow areas represent “windows of
                   5.0
                                                                        opportunity” for traditional or tracked practices.
                   4.0

                   3.0
                                                          N = 30-45%
                   2.0                   N = 20%          P = 0-15%          N = 60%                             N = 20-75%
                                                                                               N = 30%
                                         P = 20%         SED = 0-20%         P = 60%                             P = 20-75%
                                                                                               P = 30%
                   1.0                  SED = 40%                           SED = 75%         SED = 38%         SED = 0-40%

                           3.476          0.118            0.107              0.047             0.028              0.005
                   0.0
                         Farm Plans    Grazing Land   Cover Crops       Stream Protection Stream Protection    Animal Waste
                                        Protection                         With Fencing    Without Fencing     Management
                                                                                                              (Manure Acres)
       BMP Implementation
   How “Efficiency” BMPs Are Credited In The Model

    Reduction = acres treated by BMP * BMP efficiency
                total segment acres

    By Landuse and Model Segment
         BMP Implementation
   How “Efficiency” BMPs Are Credited In The Model
       BMPs that cannot be applied to same landuse
         • Mutually exclusive – Additive in nutrient reduction
           capabilities
         • i.e., streambank protection with and without
           protection
       Several BMPs on same landuse  Consecutive
         • One BMP reduces the nutrients available for
           subsequent BMPs  Multiplicative in nutrient
           reduction
         • i.e., forest buffers downhill from cover crops
     Opportunities for BMPs
   BMPs that revise inputs
       Alternative uses of manure
       Nutrient applications to cropland
       BMPs involving landuse conversions
   BMPs with nutrient and sediment reduction
    efficiencies
   BMPs with both landuse conversions and
    reduction efficiencies
                         BMPs with Landuse Conversions and Reduction Efficiencies


                          2001 Implementation Level                 2001 Theoretical Maximum Implementation
                   600
                                                          •Riparian buffer efficiencies are being revised so that
                                                          they will vary according to hydro-geomorphic region.
                   500                                    •Yellow areas represent “windows of opportunity” and
                                                          assume 100-ft. buffer widths on all un-buffered stream-
                                                          miles associated with agricultural land.
                   400
(thousand acres)




                                     N = 25-85%
                   300
                                     P = 50-75%
                                    SED = 50-75%
                                                                                          N = 17-58%
                   200                                                                    P = 50-75%
                                                                                         SED = 50-75%

                   100


                                         16.8                                                 4.6
                     0
                                Riparian Forest Buffers                              Riparian Grass Buffers
  Model BMP Simulation

Input
Data                    River Simulation
        Opportunities
          for BMPs

            Land
         Simulation
                             Output
Chesapeake Bay Program


       Phase 4.3
    Watershed Model
      Simulation
      Watershed Model
   64,000 square miles
   9 Landuses
   94 Segments
   133 State-segment
   464 County-segments
   9 Major Tributaries
   20 State-Basins
   31 Tributary Strategy
    Basins
Lumped Parameter Physically-Based Model
Loading Sources in Watershed Model

          Conventional   Conservation
Pasture       Till           Till           Hay      Manure

                   RIVER REACH

          Atmospheric     Pervious      Impervious
Forest     Deposition      Urban          Urban


                                   Septic         Point Source
       Land Simulation – 1 Acre
Atmospheric Deposition,               Denitrification
      Manure,                         Volatilization
  Chemical Fertilizer
                                         Uptake by
                                           Crops



                              Export to Streams
                Surface
              Interflow       Water Simulation - Physically Based
            Lower Zone              Precipitation (time series)
                           Percolation - f(soil properties, slope, temp)
            Ground Water     Evapotranspiration - f(time series, land
                                            properties)
                             Runoff - f(soil properties, slope, temp)
Nutrient and Sediment Simulation
                                    Land
 Meteorology   Precipitation
                                 Morphology


                 Runoff and
                Groundwater

  Phosphorus      Sediment         Nitrogen
     Cycle         Export           Cycle


               Nutrient Inputs
Nutrient Simulation




                      Nitrogen
                       Cycle
                         Watershed Model Forest Nitrogen Cycle
                                                Trees
Denitrification




                                                Roots                Leaves
                             Nitrate
Atmospheric Deposition




                         Export



                                                  Particulate       Particulate
                           Solution
                                                    Labile          Refractory
                           Ammonia
                                                  Organic N         Organic N

                         Export                  Export            Export
                                       Export             Export            Export


                                                   Solution          Solution
                           Adsorbed
                                                    Labile          Refractory
                           Ammonia
                                                  Organic N         Organic N
  Agriculture Nutrient Balance
Atmospheric Deposition,        Denitrification
       Manure,                 Volatilization
   Chemical Fertilizer
                                 Uptake by
                                   Crops



                          Export to Streams
   Forest Nutrient Balance
Atmospheric                  Denitrification
Deposition                   Volatilization




                         Export to Streams
   Urban Nutrient Balance
Atmospheric                     Denitrification
Deposition,                     Volatilization
Other sources
                                  Uptake by
                                  grasses




                            Export to Streams
            Land-Water Connection

       Forest                   X 3000 acres

                                X 400 acres
Pervious                        X 100 acres
 Urban

           Impervious
             Urban          X 200 acres
                                                                    X 300 acres
                                   X 900 acres       X 1500 acres



   Conventional         Conservation           Hay              Pasture
       Till                 Till
            Land-Water Connection
                            Deposition,
                           Point Source,
                              Septic

       Forest                   X 3000 acres

                                X 400 acres
Pervious                        X 100 acres
 Urban

           Impervious
             Urban          X 200 acres
                                                                    X 300 acres
                                   X 900 acres       X 1500 acres



   Conventional         Conservation           Hay              Pasture
       Till                 Till
  Water Simulation - Physically Based

 Precipitation or percolation
        (time series)                Evapotranspiration
                                        f(time series,
                                           land properties)

                                                  RO
                          f(soil properties, slope, temp)

Percolation
   f(soil properties, slope, temp)
      River Simulation - Nitrogen

                             Ri




                                           r3
                               ve
                                 r2




                                         ve
                                      Ri
NO3

       }           Algae

                                                Ri
NH3
                                                   ve
                                                     r1
           ORGN



                  Sediment
Two Points of Calibration

    Rain




           Land Surface
 Chesapeake Bay Program



Atmospheric Deposition Model
And Impacts of Deposition on
            Loads
Atmospheric Deposition Model
         Atmospheric Deposition Model
•Deposition to the watershed is calculated from monitoring data – NADP nutrient concentrations /
precipitation.
•The Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) changes deposition to the watershed based on changes in
emissions throughout the airshed from utility, mobile, and industrial sources.



                                            P4ms
                                                5-6
                                                6-7
                                                7-8
                                                8-9
                                                9 - 10
                                                10 - 11
                                                11 - 12
                                                12 - 13
                                                13 - 14
                           Nitrogen Deposition Versus Delivered Load

                                      Atmospheric Deposition                        Delivered Load
                     500
                            462.7
                     450                          Atmospheric Inputs:
                                                  Of the total NOx deposition to the Chesapeake Bay
                     400
                                                  watershed land area, about 50% originates from
                     350                          emissions in Bay-watershed states:__________________
(million lbs/year)




                                                  PA = 17%, VA = 10%, MD = 9%, WV = 7%, NY = 5%, DE = 1%
                     300                          OH, NC, NY, KY, IN, TN, MI = 27%
                     250                          Other States in 37-State Area = 24%

                     200
                                                  Delivered Loads From All Sources:
                     150             305.2        Of the total nitrogen load delivered to the Chesapeake
                                                  Bay watershed, about 32% is attributable to atmospheric
                     100
                                                  deposition, based on the proportion of anthropogenic
                     50                           inputs.
                      0
                            2000 Progress
                            Nitrogen Deposition Versus Delivered Load
                     For all air scenarios, landuses, fertilizer applications, point sources, septic, and BMP implementation are
                                          held constant at 2000 levels - Only atmospheric deposition varies

                                              Atmospheric Deposition                                       Delivered Load
                     500
                             462.7
                     450

                     400                           386.9

                                                                          344.0
                     350
                                                                                                310.1
(million lbs/year)




                     300                                                                                               284.6

                     250

                     200

                     150              305.2                  294.2                  286.5                   279.4                 274.8
                     100

                      50

                       0
                              2000 Progress        2010 emissions w/    2020 emissions w/       2020 emissions w/     2020 emissions w/
                                                 ozone-season NOx SIP seasonal NOx SIP call +     annual CAA +          annual CAA +
                                                          call          all-year "Tier II" &     aggressive utility   aggressive utility,
                                                                         heavy duty diesel           controls         mobile, & industrial
                                                                            regulations                                    controls
  Model BMP Simulation

Input
Data                    River Simulation
        Opportunities
          for BMPs

            Land
         Simulation
                             Output
1985 Versus 2001 and Cap Load Allocations




 Nutrient and Sediment Loads
Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay
      By Major Tributary
                                              Nitrogen Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay

                                                       1985                                              2001 Progress                                                 Cap Load Allocation
                               160


                               140   135.34


                                         120.98
                               120
(million pounds TN per year)




                               100


                                80             76.25
                                                                                                                        70.80

                                                                                                                                58.43
                                60
                                                                                                                                                                                      46.71

                                40                                                                                                      34.32                                                 35.68
                                                       30.20                   28.25
                                                                                                                                                                                                      25.74
                                                               22.75
                                20                                     13.68           15.78
                                                                                               11.10                                            9.73 7.73          9.13 7.70
                                                                                                       5.02 4.08                                            5.05               5.51
                                                                                                                 2.38                                                                                         2.35 2.05 1.11
                                 0
                                      Susquehanna      Eastern Shore Western Shore                       Patuxent          Potomac              Rappahannock           York               James               Eastern Shore
                                                            MD            MD                                                                                                                                       VA
                                                 Phosphorus Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay

                                                        1985                                       2001 Progress                                                    Cap Load Allocation
                               9
                                                                                                                                                                                  8.48


                               8


                               7
(million pounds TP per year)




                               6                                                                                                                                                         5.55
                                                                                                                   5.30
                                   5.11
                               5
                                                                                                                          4.22
                                          4.00
                               4
                                                                                                                                 3.48                                                            3.42
                                                        3.09
                               3
                                                 2.52

                                                               1.89          1.96
                               2
                                                                                                                                        1.27                 1.18
                                                                      1.14
                                                                                    0.93 0.84                                                  0.92
                               1                                                                                                                      0.62
                                                                                                                                                                    0.77
                                                                                                0.51                                                                       0.48
                                                                                                       0.28 0.21                                                                                        0.22 0.21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.08
                               0
                                   Susquehanna          Eastern Shore        Western Shore        Patuxent            Potomac           Rappahannock                York                 James          Eastern Shore
                                                             MD                   MD                                                                                                                         VA
                                                                                            Land-Based Sediment Loads
                                                                                          Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay

                                                    1985                            2001 Progress                                        Land-Based Sediment Cap Load Allocation
                              2.5



                                                                                                                              2.033
                              2.0
(million tons SED per year)




                                                                                                                                      1.721


                                                                                                                                              1.494
                              1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.278
                                    1.178                                                                                                                                                                   1.193

                                            1.027
                                                    0.962
                              1.0                                                                                                                                                                                   0.935




                              0.5                           0.382
                                                                                                                                                      0.418
                                                                    0.299                                                                                     0.331
                                                                                                                                                                      0.288
                                                                                                        0.201
                                                                            0.163 0.164                                                                                       0.158 0.125
                                                                                          0.129 0.100           0.129 0.095                                                                 0.103
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0.021 0.018 0.008
                              0.0
                                     Susquehanna            Eastern Shore         Western Shore            Patuxent              Potomac              Rappahannock                 York                 James               Eastern Shore
                                                                 MD                    MD                                                                                                                                        VA
        Phase 5
        Calibration

   Phase 4.3 – 26
    calibration stations

   Phase 5.0 – 236
    hydrology and 100+
    water quality
    calibration stations
Old vs. New Segments
        Phase 5 Improvements
   Segmentation
   Calibration
   Land cover/land use (2000, year by year)
   Rainfall
   Atmospheric Deposition
   Urban
   BMPs (seasonality, extreme weather
    events, design life considerations)
   Lots more…so stay tuned!
           Send Donuts to:
             Rich Batiuk
U.S. EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office
            410-267-5731
        batiuk.richard@epa.gov
       www.chesapeakebay.net

				
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