Population Projections & Policies
UN Population Projections
According to the Population Bureau:
Government policy makers and planners around the world use population projections to gauge future
demand for resources and to forecast future demographic characteristics.
Most national governments make population projections for their own countries. In addition, a few
international organizations prepare population projections for the world, regions and individual
The United Nations (U.N.) and the U.S. Census Bureau issue revised global and national projections on
a regular basis. The U.N. projections are the most widely used globally.
Many national governments, international agencies, the media, researchers, and academic institutions
rely on UN projections.
The population of a geographic area grows or declines through the interaction of three factors: fertility,
mortality, and migration. To project population size at a future date, demographers make assumptions
about levels of fertility and mortality and about how many people will move into or out of an area
before that date. The net population increase or decrease over the period is added to the “baseline”
(beginning) population to project future population.
Pro-Natalist Policies Anti-Natalist Policies
Country of Policy - Singapore Country of Policy - China
Describe – 1987 – New Population Policy – to Describe – China’s One Child Policy
present day. 2.1 TFR required for replacement level.
Explain – Policy targets intellectually talented Explain – 1976 – Voluntary population control
professionals. Posters on buses and trains “Children including birth control offices established and
– Life would be empty without them” and “Now that minimum legal age for marriage raised to 20 for
you have married, take the next step”, Baby bonus females and 22 for males. 1980 – Marriage Law
scheme (2000) includes yearly allowance of S$500 “husband and wife are duty bound to practice family
($US 290) available for every third child up to the planning” but then One Child Policy introduced as
age of six, state-run dating agencies, town hall style previous policies not considered to be effective
“marriage and procreation” forums, Dr. Love Super enough. One Child Policy – one child resulted in
Baby Making Show – ‘edutain’ – educate and health care, housing allocation, educational provision
entertain at the same time and extra land for private farming and extra food
rations. Punishments for violating family planning
regulations e.g. refusal to abort unapproved
pregnancies and unapproved birth for couples under
the legal marriage age.
Evaluate – 1986 – 1.4, 1990 – 1.87, 2001 – 1.42, Evaluate – very successful in achieving objective (CBR)-
2003 – 1.37, 2005 – 1.05. Thus the data suggests 1960 – 37/1000, 1988 fallen to 21/1000 and by 1998 to
that, to date, this policy has not been successful. 16.2/1000 but with a range of negative consequences e.g.
human rights abuse according to the international
community, very spoiled and selfish only child known as
“little emperor syndrome”& loss of the extended family
(aunt, uncle, cousin). Boy preference resulted in illegal
abortions of girls post illegal ultrasound sex testing,
female infanticide, large number of girls in orphanages,
uneven sex ratio & now fewer children to support an
increasing ageing population.
Country of Policy - Sweden Country of Policy – Kerala, India
Describe - 2.1 TFR required for replacement level. Describe – 1970’s to present day – Kerala’s elected
state government has had long periods of Communist
control that has prioritized in-direct population
Explain – Increasing child allowances from 105 Explain – Communist controlled investment in
Euros a month for the 1st child to 190 for the 4th, education and health care in rural areas. Focus on
paternity support – fathers can have a day off to stay raising female literacy, thus further educational
at home with children on 80% pay, if children are opportunities, resulting in increase minimum age for
sick a parent can stay at home for up to a total of 120 marriage thus delaying the birth of the 1st child.
days a year and their lost wages are paid by the state. Education also promoted women to women to
Women who return to work after maternity leave (up demand healthcare services and improved food
to 15 months on 80% pay) can go back to old jobs supplies that reduced infant mortality rates, provided
and responsibilities. contraceptive advice and provision and enabled
women to feel more empowered ‘emancipated’ to
challenge their husband and mother-in-law’s
authority on the number of children born.
Evaluate – 1990 1.5 to 1.71 in 2003 and 1.66 in 2005 Evaluate – this policy has been hugely successful. In
Some success up to 2003 but it still not enough to the mid – 1960’s, Kerala’s CBR was 42/1000, fell to
keep the Swedish population from declining without 35/1000 in 1970, by 1980 it was 30/1000 and by
immigration. 1990 20/1000. The decline has continued since then,
reaching 17/1000 in 1993and 15/1000 in 1997.