Emergimg Risks

							           SAFEFOODERA
Stakeholder Group Meeting with Retailers

         – Emerging Risks –


        Ljubljana, 8 - 9 February 2007
         Why Emerging Risk Identification?



 timely recognition of critical situations
 increased number of options for action to risk
   managers
 Emerging risk identification

  crucial part of any coherent,
effective and dynamic food policy
                    Europe: Article 34
              of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002


      ... [EFSA] .... shall establish monitoring procedures
   for systematically searching for, collecting, collating and
        analysing information and data with a view to the
identification of emerging risks in the fields within its mission.


               major preventative instrument
            Limitations of Risk Analysis


 usually neglected: long-term consequences and
   impacts of factors outside the food chain
 not incorporated adequately: various interacting
   processes which influence the evolution of a risk
 often ignored: human factor (only simplistic or
   standardised schemes of behaviour)
PERIAPT- Workshop
(Bonn, July 2004)

 International
  Organisations
 Research institutions
 Industry
 Consumer
  Organisations
 Governmental Bodies
                            Definitions
                 Article 3 of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002




Risk  a function of the probability of an adverse health
effect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard

Hazard  a biological, chemical or physical agent in,
or condition of, food or feed with the potential to cause an
adverse health effect
                   Definitions
                     Periapt 2004




Emerging Risk  a potential food or feed borne
or diet-related hazard that may become a risk for
human health in the (near) future
      Early Warning System: AWACS




     AWACS (Airborne Early Warning and Control System)


The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard itself!
                                    Early Warning System:
                                           Tsunami




                DART
                Deep-Ocean
                Assessment and
                Reporting of
                Tsunamis



The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard itself!
        Pro-active Methodology: Climate Forecast
                                         Drought (Africa)




Weather Balloon        Observed
 (Antarctica)      indicators are not
                   part of the hazard
                     but (possibly)      Flooding (Prague)
                  suitable to detect a
                    risk proactively
  Emerging Risks: The Holistic Approach

                               Consumer
                                behavior
                                                 Regulations/
               Media
                                                 enforcement




    Industry                                             Agriculture
                            Food Safety

      Nature
                                                         Economy
    Environment

                         Culture/      Science and
                       Demography      Technology




Analysing the environment of the food supply chain.
                   „Holistic Vision“


Economy  Globalisation
increasing complexity of food production chain – limitations
in traceability

Nature & Environment  Climate
modified behaviour of microorganisms could lead to new or
different biological food risks

....
                Flow diagram holistic approach
                             Periapt 2004




Influential sectors       Critical factors           Indicators




          Example: Emerging risk of contamination of crop
                 by mycotoxin-producing moulds


   Nature &                                          Rainfall &
                             Climate
  Environment                                       Temperature
                Status in 5 – 15 years:
Will fish from the arctic regions still be safe to eat?




                  Threats: interdisciplinary,
                  complex and global issue
       Key characteristics of an
   Emerging Risk Identification System



 anticipatory approach
 process
 no replacement of Early Warning Systems
                   What to do?


 pro-active identification of food related risks
 consideration of plurality of involved factors;
  identification and weighing of key issues

 combination of specialised knowledge from
  various disciplines

 consideration of changing factors
Thank you for your attention!