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Research Methods: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science The Need for Psychology Science Do Now • Fact or Falsehood • Before attempting the quiz, predict how many you will get correct. • Complete Handouts 2-2 / 2-5 The Need for Psychological Science Intuition & Common Sense Many people believe that intuition and common sense are enough to bring forth answers regarding human nature. Intuition and common sense an open A bullet is fired from a gun across may aid field. bullet is dropped from a free of error. A queries, but they are not person’s hand. Which hits the ground first? 4 Errors of Common Sense & Limits of Intuition Try this! Fold a piece of paper (0.1 mm thick) 100 times. How thick will it be? 800,000,000,000,000 times the distance between the sun and the earth. Personal interviewers may rely too much on their “gut feelings” when meeting with job applicants. 5 Did We Know It All Along? Hindsight Bias • Hindsight Bias – “I knew it all along” – “Out of sight, out of mind” – “Absence makes the heart grow fonder” • Examples: – Jurors told to ignore information by the judge – Vick is obviously a better quarterback than Kolb – Handout 2-2 Overconfidence Sometimes we think we know more than we Overconfidence, actually know. together with hindsight bias, can lead to overestimate Anagram How long do you think it our intuition WREAT WATER would take to unscramble these anagrams? ETYRN ENTRY Now -Dotake Quiz People said it would -Handout 2-3GRABE about 10 seconds, yet on BARGE average they took about 3 minutes (Goranson 1978). 7 Psychological Science • How can we differentiate between uniformed opinions and examined conclusions? • The science of psychology helps make these examined conclusions, which leads to our understanding of how people feel, think, and act as they do! 8 The Scientific Attitude • Three main components: –Curiosity (passion for exploration) –Skepticism (doubting and questioning competing ideas) –Open-Minded Humility (ability to accept responsibility when wrong). Critical Thinking • Critical Thinking –“Smart thinking” • does not accept arguments and conclusions blindly. –Four elements: • Examines assumptions • Discerns hidden values • Evaluates evidence • Assesses conclusions How Do Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions? The Scientific Method A Theory is an explanation that integrates principles and organizes and predicts behavior or events. Good theories explain by: 1) Organizing and linking observed facts 2) Implying hypotheses that offer testable predictions and sometimes practical applications For example, low self-esteem contributes to depression. 12 The Scientific Method In Psychology, a Hypothesis is not an “educated guess” or “testable question.” A Hypothesis is a testable prediction, often prompted by a theory, to enable us to accept, reject or revise the theory. A statement of relationship among variables. i.e. People with low self-esteem are apt to feel more depressed. 13 The Scientific Method Research Observations Research would require us to administer tests of self-esteem and depression. Individuals who score low on a self-esteem test and high on a depression test would confirm our hypothesis. 14 The Scientific Method The Scientific Method The Scientific Method The Scientific Method Making Research Scientific 1) Must be Replicable - Why? 2) Must be Falsifiable - Hypothesis stated in such a way that it can be rejected (Loch Ness Monster example) 3) Must be Precise - Use of Operational Definitions 4) Must be Parsimonious - Apply simplest explanation to set of observations (i.e. falling asleep in math class) 19 Purposes of Psychological Research 1) To find ways to measure and describe behavior 2) To understand why, when and how events occur 3) To apply this knowledge to solving real world problems 20 Describing Psychological Research • General Terms used: – Variables: the events, characteristics, behaviors, or conditions that researchers measure & study – Subject (or participant): an individual or animal a researcher studies – Sample: collection of subjects researchers study (bc cannot study entire population) – Population: collection of people or animals from which researchers draw a sample • Study sample & generalize to population 21 Operational Definitions • Statement of procedures (operations) used to define research variables – Defines what the researcher will be observing and manipulating – Ex. – human intelligence operationally defined as what an intelligence test measures • Operational Definitions MUST be: – Measurable – Manageable 22 Operational Definitions • With a partner, attempt to operationally define the following: 1) Happiness 2) A Smile 3) Popularity 4) Good Music 23 Description Case Study A technique in which one person is studied in depth to reveal underlying behavioral principles. 24 Case Study Advantages Disadvantages • Good way to generate • Can give incomplete or hypotheses unrepresentative info – Can be a source of insight and • Sometimes only relies on ideas (Freud, Piaget, etc.) self-report data – Suggest further study – can be misleading • Can provide data other • Can be subjective methods cannot – Usually only 1 investigator – Rare phenomena – damage to – may lead to biased results specific brain areas • Cannot be used to test • Provide illustrative theories or treatments anecdotes – Concrete examples of • Does NOT explain behavior concepts & principles – NO Cause & Effect 25 Survey How long is the Mississippi River? What is the population of Argentina? Form A Form B Form A Form B A technique for ascertaining the self-reported attitudes, opinions or behaviors of people usually done by questioning a representative, random sample of people. Handout 2-5 & Discuss examples Effects of: Wording Range of Responses Order 26 Survey President Obama is a good president. False Consensus Effect A tendency to overestimate the extent to Yes or No? which others share our beliefs and behaviors. Estimate the % of people in class that you think agree with you 27 Survey Random Sampling If each member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion into a sample, it is called a random sample (unbiased). If the survey sample is biased, its results are not valid. Representative Sample (Generalizability) The fastest way to know about the In class Sample – m/f? hair color? marble color ratio is to blindly transfer a few into a smaller jar and Coin Flip count them. -Table of Random #s -Potential Problems in Polls? 28 Survey Advantages Disadvantages • Provides a good way to • Relies on Self-Report Data generate hypotheses – Can be misleading – Saying vs. Doing – behavior • Can provide info about can’t be observed directly many people at once – Low Response Rate? – Cheap & relatively easy • Can be Subjective – May lead to Bias – Wording? Sample? • Does NOT explain behavior – NO Cause & Effect conclusions 29 Naturalistic Observation • observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation (no interference) – Animals in Wild – Self-seating patterns in lunch room 30 Naturalistic Observation Advantages Disadvantages • Can be useful in • Sometimes biased results generating hypotheses• May be difficult to do • Provides info about unobtrusively Homework behavior in natural • Does NOT explain – Think of a question related to psychology (behavior & environment behavior mental processes) that you want to know the answer to. – NO Cause & Effect conclusions Examples: – Does not control for all What makes people happy?factors that may influence Do people’s personalities change over their life? behavior 31 Correlation Correlation • a measure the following to which two factors Discuss each of of the extentactual correlations with a vary together, and thus of how partner and attempt to explain them: well either factor predicts the other. 1) Those who often ate Frosted Flakes as children had – Does NOT mean Causation cancer rate of those who half theinformation obtained never ate the cereal. • How is – Surveys, often ate Oatmeal 2) Those who Quasi-experiments as children were 4 times – Examples more likely to develop cancer. • GPA related to Test Scores? 3) A • People w/ finds that as ice cream consumption police chiefstore credit cards spend more on clothes? increases, that can’t be manipulated • Variables the crime rate increases. As ice cream – i.e. gender, decreases, weight consumption age, height,so does the crime rate. – More likely to be used in correlational research Correlation • Ice Cream Causes Polio? Correlation • Correlation Coefficient – How well does A predict B (or B predict A) – Questions to Ask: • Is it positive or negative? (+ / – ) – NOT good or bad – Negative ≠ Weak • What is the strength? (-1.0 to +1.0) – 0 = no relationship – Scatterplot Correlation Correlation Correlation Correlation Correlation Positive Correlation Positive Correlation O b e s i t y As Variable A goes up (or down) : Variable B also goes up (or down) R Work in same direction a t e # of Hours Watching TV per Day Negative or Inverse Correlation Negative Correlation G Y r e a As Variable A goes up: a d Variable B goes Down r e s (work in opposite directions) P i o n i n J t a i A l v g Years of Education Alcoholic Drinks Per Week Correlation Correlation Coefficient = +.62 http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/applets/rplot.html Correlation Correlation and Causation • Correlation helps predict – Does not imply cause and effect • Quick Quiz Time Correlation Quiz Time 1) Which of the following 2) Which of the following correlation coefficients correlation coefficients presents the strongest presents the weakest relationship? relationship? A) +.02 A) +.02 B) –.67 B) –.67 C) +.55 C) +.55 D) –.14 D) –.14 Quiz Time For each of the following, indicate whether it is a positive or negative correlation. 3) The more young people watch TV, the less they read. 4) The more sexual content teens see on TV, the more likely they are to have sex. 5) The longer children are breast-fed, the greater their later academic achievement. 6) The more often adolescents eat breakfast, the lower their body mass. Correlation Directionality • Correlation Coefficients – Do not indicate directionality, just the existence of relationship • A to B or B to A • Examples – It rains when people have their umbrellas up. – Cities with the most police have the highest crime rates. – Routine Physicals in past 3 years • 2x as likely to report high blood pressure & cholesterol – TV & Childhood Obesity • Degree of obesity rises 2% for every hour of TV watched •Positive Correlation between milk consumption and incidents of cancer in various society •Positive Correlation between body lice and good health in the New Hebrides islands •Positive Correlation between the quality of a state’s day care programs and the reported rate of child abuse •Positive Correlation between the disease pellagra and poor plumbing and sewage o pellagra = disease marked by dizziness, lethargy, running sores & vomiting Correlation • Illusory Correlation – Perceived non-existent correlation • Examples – Couples conceive after they adopt. – Studying = lower test scores – It always rains after you wash your car. – The phone always rings when you are in the shower. – The elevator is always headed in the wrong direction. – A random coincidence Correlation Perceiving Order in Random Events • Comes from our need to make sense out of the world – Which is most likely sequence? • Coin flip Gambler’s Fallacy Poker hand Valentine’s Day • What is Love? / Love Styles • Sternberg’s Triangular Theory Valentine’s Day • Pairing Game Rules – Do NOT at any time look at your own number or tell anyone else what their number is – Your task is to pair off with another student. The pairing with the highest total will receive a reward. – The offer to form a pair is made by extending your hand to another person, as if to offer a handshake. – If your offer is accepted, then stand together with your partner at the edge of the room. – If your offer is rejected, then continue looking until you have found a pair. Random Sampling Blue Brown Green Orange Red Yellow Observed f Predicted % (personal data) Predicted % (Pooled Data) % According to Mars, Inc. • On a separate sheet of paper, set up the above Distribution Data Chart • Count the # of each color of M&Ms in your personal “intact random sample” and convert numbers to % • Attempt to predict the % of each color for all M&Ms (population) Experimental Design • Task – Unscramble the anagrams on the paper provided as FAST as you possibly can! • http://www.online-stopwatch.com/ Experimentation • Experiment –Can isolate cause and effect –Control of factors • Manipulation of the factor(s) of interest • Hold constant (“controlling”) factors Experimentation Random Assignment • Random assignment –Assigning participants to groups by chance –Eliminates alternative explanations • How? –Different from random sample • How? Experimentation Random Assignment • Blind (uninformed) – Single-Blind Procedure – Double-Blind Procedure – Which would be better? Why? • Placebo Effect – Getting treatment – Dr. says it will work – More expensive pill Experimentation Placebo Effect Experimentation Placebo Effect Experimentation Random Assignment • Groups – Experimental Group • Receives the treatment (IV) – Control Group • Does not receive the treatment – Need for 2 Groups - comparison (Capital Punishment) • Within-subjects vs. Between- Subjects – Comparing to selves – Own control group (pre/post-test) – Which is most efficient? More resistant to individual differences? Experimentation Independent and Dependent Variables • Independent Variable –Manipulated – “What do researchers hope will cause the DV in the study?” • Dependent Variable –Measured – “What is the researcher measuring or looking for in the study?” Experimental Design Experimental Design Experimental Design Experimental Design Experimentation - Other Concerns • Confounding variable (aka Extraneous Variable) – Effect of random assignment on CVs? • Forms of Bias If I wanted to prove that – Experimenter Bias smoking causes heart issues, what are some • Expectations influence outcome (maze bright rats) confounding • How would you control for this? variables? – Research Participant Bias • Influenced by how they think they are supposed to behave • What does this relate to? • Validity Lifestyle and family history may also – Ecological Validity (Generalizability) – Do experimental effect the heart. methods & results generalize to real world? (mood / creativity) – Internal Validity – Extent to which changes in DV are due to manipulation of IV (Is it free from bias or errors?) Experimental Design Possible Theory: Confidence affects performance Hypothesis: More difficult tasks will lower later performance on the same kinds of tasks Time to Hard Word List Complete “Cinerama” Easy Word List Time to Complete “Cinerama” Experimental Design ABC NEWS – Curly or Straight? • Can you identify each of the following for the study: – Hypothesis: – Independent Variable: – Dependent Variable: – Controls? – Possible Problems with the study? • Asch Experiment Ethics in Research • Ethics in animal research –Reasons for using animals in research –Safeguards for animal use Ethics in Research • Ethics in human research –Informed consent –Protect from harm and discomfort –Maintain confidentiality –Debriefing Statistical Reasoning in Everyday Life HOMEWORK!!! YES!! FINALLY!! WHOOHOO!! • As you read pages 52-70 in textbook (Module 4) • Due Wednesday / Test Friday – At the end of the module: • Answer the “Check Your Vocabulary” Section – #1-15 • Answer the “Apply Your Knowledge Questions” – #1-10 • Complete the “Writing about Psychology” Section Four Scales of Measurement • Nominal Data – Identifies categories – Ex. – yes/no answers on survey, class levels in schools • Ordinal Data – Identifies order in which data falls in a set – Ex. – any ranking of items (i.e. class rank, top ten) • Interval Data – Falls within a number line that has a 0 point – Ex. – weight, height, etc. • Ratio Data – Fall in a number line where 0 is just another number – Ex. Temperature Describing Data Measures of Central Tendency • Mode (occurs the most) • Mean (arithmetic average) • Median (middle score) Describing Data Measures of Variability • Range • Standard Deviation Find the Mode, Mean, Median, Range, & Standard Deviation of Friday’s Quiz Scores Describing Data Measures of Variability • Normal Curve (bell shaped) Making Inferences When Is an Observed Difference Reliable? • Representative samples are better than biased samples • Less-variable observations are more reliable than those that are more variable • More cases are better than fewer Making Inferences When Is a Difference Significant? • Statistical significance –The averages are reliable –The differences between averages is relatively large –Does imply the importance of the results Frequently Asked Questions about Psychology Psychology Applied • Can laboratory experiments illuminate everyday life? –The principles, not the research findings, help explain behavior Psychology Applied • Does behavior depend on one’s culture and gender? –Culture • Influence of culture on behavior –Gender • More similarities than differences The End Teacher Information • Types of Files – This presentation has been saved as a “basic” Powerpoint file. While this file format placed a few limitations on the presentation, it insured the file would be compatible with the many versions of Powerpoint teachers use. To add functionality to the presentation, teachers may want to save the file for their specific version of Powerpoint. • Animation – Once again, to insure compatibility with all versions of Powerpoint, none of the slides are animated. To increase student interest, it is suggested teachers animate the slides wherever possible. • Adding slides to this presentation – Teachers are encouraged to adapt this presentation to their personal teaching style. To help keep a sense of continuity, blank slides which can be copied and pasted to a specific location in the presentation follow this “Teacher Information” section. Teacher Information • Hyperlink Slides - This presentation contain two types of hyperlinks. Hyperlinks can be identified by the text being underlined and a different color (usually purple). – Unit subsections hyperlinks: Immediately after the unit title slide, a page (slide #3) can be found listing all of the unit’s subsections. While in slide show mode, clicking on any of these hyperlinks will take the user directly to the beginning of that subsection. This allows teachers quick access to each subsection. – Bold print term hyperlinks: Every bold print term from the unit is included in this presentation as a hyperlink. While in slide show mode, clicking on any of the hyperlinks will take the user to a slide containing the formal definition of the term. Clicking on the “arrow” in the bottom left corner of the definition slide will take the user back to the original point in the presentation. These hyperlinks were included for teachers who want students to see or copy down the exact definition as stated in the text. Most teachers prefer the definitions not be included to prevent students from only “copying down what is on the screen” and not actively listening to the presentation. For teachers who continually use the Bold Print Term Hyperlinks option, please contact the author using the email address on the next slide to learn a technique to expedite the returning to the original point in the presentation. Teacher Information • Continuity slides – Throughout this presentation there are slides, usually of graphics or tables, that build on one another. These are included for three purposes. • By presenting information in small chunks, students will find it easier to process and remember the concepts. • By continually changing slides, students will stay interested in the presentation. • To facilitate class discussion and critical thinking. Students should be encouraged to think about “what might come next” in the series of slides. • Please feel free to contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions, concerns, suggestions, etc. regarding these presentations. Kent Korek Germantown High School Germantown, WI 53022 262-253-3400 email@example.com Division title (green print) subdivision title (blue print) • xxx –xxx –xxx Division title (green print) subdivision title (blue print) Use this slide to add a table, chart, clip art, picture, diagram, or video clip. Delete this box when finished Definition Slide = add definition here Definition Slides Hindsight Bias = the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. • Also known as the “I knew it all along” phenomenon. Critical Thinking = thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions. Rather, it examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions. Theory = an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events. Hypothesis = a testable prediction, often implied by a theory. Operational Definition = a statement of the procedures (operations) used to define research variables. • i.e. Human intelligence may be operationally defined as what an intelligence test measures. Replication = repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances. Case Study = an observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles. Survey = a technique for ascertaining the self- reported attitudes or behaviors of a particular group, usually by questioning a representative, random sample of the group. Population = all the cases in a group being studied, from which samples may be drawn. • Note: Except for national studies, this does NOT refer to a country’s whole population. Random Sample = a sample that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance of inclusion. Naturalistic Observation = observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation. Correlation = a measure of the extent to which two factors vary together, and thus of how well either factor predicts the other. Correlation Coefficient = a statistical index of the relationship between two things (from -1 to +1). Scatterplot = a graphed cluster of dots, each of which represents the values of two variables. The slope of the points suggests the direction of the relationship between the two variables. The amount of scatter suggests the strength of the correlation (little scatter indicates high correlation). Illusory Correlation = the perception of a relationship where none exists. Experiment = a research method in which an investigator manipulates one or more factors (independent variables) to observe the effect on some behavior or mental process (the dependent variable). By random assignment of participants, the experimenter aims to control other relevant factors. Random Assigment = assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chance, thus minimizing preexisting differences between those assigned to the different groups. Double-Blind Procedure = an experimental procedure in which both the research participants and the research staff are ignorant (blind) about whether the research participants have received the treatment or the placebo. Commonly used in drug-evaluation studies. Placebo Effect = experimental results caused by expectation alone; any effect on behavior caused by the administration of an inert substance or condition, which the recipient assumes is an active agent. Experimental Group = in an experiment, the group that is exposed to the treatment, that is, to one version of the independent variable. Control Group = in an experiment, the group that is NOT exposed to the treatment; contrasts with the experimental group and serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of treatment. Independent Variable = the experimental factor that is manipulated; the variable whose effect is being studied. Confounding Variable = a factor other than the independent variable that might produce an effect in an experiment. Dependent Variable = the outcome factor; the variable that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable. Mode = the most frequently occurring score(s) in a distribution. Mean = the arithmetic average of a distribution, obtained by adding the scores and then dividing by the number of scores. Median = the middle score in a distribution, half the scores are above it and half are below it. Range = the difference between the highest and lowest score in a distribution. Standard Deviation = a computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean score. Normal Curve = a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve that describes the distribution of many types of data; most scored fall near the mean (68 percent fall within one standard deviation of it) and fewer and fewer near the extremes. Statistical Significance = a statistical statement of how likely it is that an obtained result occurred by chance. Culture = the enduring behavior, ideas, attitudes, and traditions shared by a group of people and transmitted from one generation to the next. Informed Consent = an ethical principle that research participants be told enough to enable them to choose whether they wish to participate. Debriefing = the postexperimental explanation of a study, including its purpose and any deceptions, to its participants.
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