Myers AP Unit 02 New by 8P6Cqm4


									  Research Methods:
Thinking Critically with
 Psychological Science
The Need for Psychology
             Do Now
• Fact or Falsehood
  • Before attempting the quiz, predict
    how many you will get correct.
  • Complete Handouts 2-2 / 2-5
         The Need for
     Psychological Science
       Intuition & Common Sense
Many people believe that intuition and common
  sense are enough to bring forth answers
          regarding human nature.
     Intuition and common sense an open
A bullet is fired from a gun across may aid field.
     bullet is dropped from a free of error.
   A queries, but they are not person’s hand.
           Which hits the ground first?

Errors of Common Sense &
    Limits of Intuition
                   Try this!
Fold a piece of paper (0.1 mm thick) 100 times.
             How thick will it be?
    800,000,000,000,000 times the distance
        between the sun and the earth.

  Personal interviewers may
  rely too much on their “gut
    feelings” when meeting
      with job applicants.
Did We Know It All Along?
     Hindsight Bias
• Hindsight Bias
  – “I knew it all along”
  – “Out of sight, out of mind”
  – “Absence makes the heart grow fonder”
    • Examples:
       – Jurors told to ignore information by the judge
       – Vick is obviously a better quarterback than Kolb
       – Handout 2-2
  Sometimes we think we
    know more than we
      actually know.          together with
  hindsight bias, can lead to overestimate
 How long do you think it
                 our intuition WREAT WATER
 would take to unscramble
     these anagrams?
                                 ETYRN   ENTRY
                 -Dotake Quiz
People said it would
                 -Handout 2-3GRABE
about 10 seconds, yet on
average they took about
 3 minutes (Goranson 1978).
 Psychological Science
• How can we differentiate between
  uniformed opinions and
  examined conclusions?
   •   The science of psychology helps make
       these examined conclusions, which
       leads to our understanding of how
       people feel, think, and act as they do!

  The Scientific Attitude
• Three main components:
  –Curiosity (passion for exploration)
  –Skepticism (doubting and questioning
   competing ideas)
  –Open-Minded Humility (ability to
   accept responsibility when wrong).
    Critical Thinking
• Critical Thinking
  –“Smart thinking”
    • does not accept arguments and
      conclusions blindly.
  –Four elements:
    • Examines assumptions
    • Discerns hidden values
    • Evaluates evidence
    • Assesses conclusions
How Do Psychologists Ask
 and Answer Questions?
   The Scientific Method
   A Theory is an explanation that integrates
principles and organizes and predicts behavior
                   or events.

Good theories explain by:
1) Organizing and linking observed facts
2) Implying hypotheses that offer testable
   predictions and sometimes practical

 For example, low self-esteem contributes to
   The Scientific Method
    In Psychology, a Hypothesis is not an
  “educated guess” or “testable question.”

 A Hypothesis is a testable prediction, often
prompted by a theory, to enable us to accept,
        reject or revise the theory.
A statement of relationship among variables.

i.e. People with low self-esteem are apt to feel
               more depressed.

   The Scientific Method

       Research Observations
Research would require us to administer tests of
  self-esteem and depression. Individuals who
  score low on a self-esteem test and high on a
 depression test would confirm our hypothesis.

The Scientific
The Scientific
The Scientific
The Scientific
Making Research Scientific
1) Must be Replicable
    - Why?
2) Must be Falsifiable
    - Hypothesis stated in such a way that it can be
        rejected (Loch Ness Monster example)
3) Must be Precise
    - Use of Operational Definitions
4) Must be Parsimonious
    - Apply simplest explanation to set of
        observations (i.e. falling asleep in math class)
Purposes of Psychological
1) To find ways to measure and describe
2) To understand why, when and how
   events occur
3) To apply this knowledge to solving
   real world problems

   Describing Psychological
• General Terms used:
  – Variables: the events, characteristics,
    behaviors, or conditions that researchers
    measure & study
  – Subject (or participant): an individual or
    animal a researcher studies
  – Sample: collection of subjects researchers
    study (bc cannot study entire population)
  – Population: collection of people or animals
    from which researchers draw a sample
    • Study sample & generalize to population     21
   Operational Definitions
• Statement of procedures (operations)
  used to define research variables
  – Defines what the researcher will be observing and
  – Ex. – human intelligence operationally defined as
    what an intelligence test measures
• Operational Definitions MUST be:
  – Measurable
  – Manageable

  Operational Definitions
• With a partner, attempt to operationally
  define the following:
  1)   Happiness
  2)   A Smile
  3)   Popularity
  4)   Good Music

               Case Study
A technique in which one person is studied in
    depth to reveal underlying behavioral

                     Case Study
          Advantages                  Disadvantages
• Good way to generate              • Can give incomplete or
  hypotheses                          unrepresentative info
   – Can be a source of insight and • Sometimes only relies on
     ideas (Freud, Piaget, etc.)      self-report data
   – Suggest further study
                                    – can be misleading
• Can provide data other          • Can be subjective
  methods cannot                    – Usually only 1 investigator
   – Rare phenomena – damage to
                                    – may lead to biased results
     specific brain areas
                                  • Cannot be used to test
• Provide illustrative
                                    theories or treatments
   – Concrete examples of         • Does NOT explain behavior
     concepts & principles          – NO Cause & Effect
How long is the Mississippi River?   What is the population of Argentina?
  Form A               Form B           Form A              Form B
 A technique for ascertaining the self-reported
   attitudes, opinions or behaviors of people
 usually done by questioning a representative,
           random sample of people.

        Handout 2-5 & Discuss examples
Effects of:
Range of Responses

     President Obama is a good president.
          False Consensus Effect
   A tendency to overestimate the extent to
                  Yes or No?
      which others share our beliefs and
Estimate the % of people in class that you think
                agree with you

                   Random Sampling
 If each member of a population
has an equal chance of inclusion
     into a sample, it is called a
random sample (unbiased). If the
    survey sample is biased, its
        results are not valid.

     Representative Sample
       (Generalizability)               The fastest way to know about the
  In class Sample – m/f? hair color?      marble color ratio is to blindly
                                       transfer a few into a smaller jar and
                Coin Flip                           count them.
         -Table of Random #s
     -Potential Problems in Polls?                                      28
      Advantages                    Disadvantages
• Provides a good way to • Relies on Self-Report Data
  generate hypotheses       – Can be misleading
                            – Saying vs. Doing – behavior
• Can provide info about
                              can’t be observed directly
  many people at once
                                 – Low Response Rate?
   – Cheap & relatively easy
                               • Can be Subjective
                                 – May lead to Bias
                                 – Wording? Sample?
                               • Does NOT explain behavior
                                 – NO Cause & Effect conclusions

 Naturalistic Observation
• observing and recording behavior in naturally
  occurring situations without trying to
  manipulate and control the situation
  (no interference)
  – Animals in Wild
  – Self-seating patterns in lunch room

    Naturalistic Observation
      Advantages                Disadvantages

• Can be useful in        • Sometimes biased results
   generating hypotheses• May be difficult to do
• Provides info about       unobtrusively
   behavior in natural • Does NOT explain
– Think of a question related to psychology (behavior &
   environment              behavior
mental processes) that you want to know the answer to.
                           – NO Cause & Effect
                           – Does not control for all
     What makes people happy?factors that may influence
     Do people’s personalities change over their life?
• a measure the following to which two factors
Discuss each of of the extentactual correlations with a
   vary together, and thus of how
partner and attempt to explain them: well either factor
   predicts the other.
1) Those who often ate Frosted Flakes as children had
    – Does NOT mean Causation
            cancer rate of those who
   half theinformation obtained never ate the cereal.
• How is
   – Surveys, often ate Oatmeal
2) Those who Quasi-experiments as children were 4 times
   – Examples
   more likely to develop cancer.
      • GPA related to Test Scores?
3) A  • People w/ finds that as ice cream consumption
     police chiefstore credit cards spend more on clothes?
   increases, that can’t be manipulated
• Variables the crime rate increases. As ice cream
   – i.e. gender, decreases, weight
   consumption age, height,so does the crime rate.
   – More likely to be used in correlational research
• Ice Cream Causes Polio?
• Correlation Coefficient
  – How well does A predict B (or B predict A)
  – Questions to Ask:
     • Is it positive or negative? (+ / – )
        – NOT good or bad – Negative ≠ Weak
     • What is the strength? (-1.0 to +1.0)
        – 0 = no relationship

  – Scatterplot
Positive Correlation
    Positive Correlation

y                  As Variable A goes up (or down) :
                   Variable B also goes up (or down)
                            Work in same direction

         # of Hours Watching TV per Day
Negative or Inverse Correlation
    Negative Correlation
a                      As Variable A goes up:
d                      Variable B goes Down
                    (work in opposite directions)
              Years of Education
          Alcoholic Drinks Per Week
Correlation Coefficient = +.62
  Correlation and Causation
• Correlation helps predict
 – Does not imply cause and effect
• Quick Quiz Time
                     Quiz Time
1) Which of the following     2) Which of the following
   correlation coefficients      correlation coefficients
   presents the strongest        presents the weakest
   relationship?                 relationship?
       A) +.02                       A) +.02
       B) –.67                       B) –.67
       C) +.55                       C) +.55
       D) –.14                       D) –.14
                     Quiz Time
For each of the following, indicate whether it is a positive
  or negative correlation.

3) The more young people watch TV, the less they read.

4) The more sexual content teens see on TV, the more
   likely they are to have sex.

5) The longer children are breast-fed, the greater their
   later academic achievement.

6) The more often adolescents eat breakfast, the lower
   their body mass.
• Correlation Coefficients
  – Do not indicate directionality, just the existence of
     • A to B or B to A

• Examples
  – It rains when people have their umbrellas up.
  – Cities with the most police have the highest crime rates.
  – Routine Physicals in past 3 years
     • 2x as likely to report high blood pressure & cholesterol
  – TV & Childhood Obesity
     • Degree of obesity rises 2% for every hour of TV watched
•Positive Correlation between milk consumption and
incidents of cancer in various society
•Positive Correlation between body lice and good
health in the New Hebrides islands
•Positive Correlation between the quality of a state’s
day care programs and the reported rate of child abuse
•Positive Correlation between the disease pellagra and
poor plumbing and sewage
   o pellagra = disease marked by dizziness, lethargy, running sores &
• Illusory Correlation
  – Perceived non-existent correlation
    • Examples – Couples conceive after they adopt.
       – Studying = lower test scores
       – It always rains after you wash your car.
       – The phone always rings when you are in the shower.
       – The elevator is always headed in the wrong direction.
  – A random coincidence
Perceiving Order in Random Events
• Comes from our need to make sense
  out of the world
  – Which is most likely sequence?
     • Coin flip
     Gambler’s Fallacy         Poker hand
           Valentine’s Day
• What is Love? / Love Styles
• Sternberg’s Triangular Theory
            Valentine’s Day
• Pairing Game Rules
  – Do NOT at any time look at your own number or tell
    anyone else what their number is
  – Your task is to pair off with another student. The
    pairing with the highest total will receive a reward.
  – The offer to form a pair is made by extending your
    hand to another person, as if to offer a handshake.
  – If your offer is accepted, then stand together with
    your partner at the edge of the room.
  – If your offer is rejected, then continue looking until
    you have found a pair.
                  Random Sampling
                  Blue   Brown   Green   Orange   Red   Yellow
Observed f
Predicted %
(personal data)
Predicted %
(Pooled Data)
% According
to Mars, Inc.
• On a separate sheet of paper, set up the above
  Distribution Data Chart
• Count the # of each color of M&Ms in your personal
  “intact random sample” and convert numbers to %
• Attempt to predict the % of each color for all M&Ms
      Experimental Design

• Task – Unscramble the anagrams on the
  paper provided as FAST as you possibly can!


• Experiment
 –Can isolate cause and effect
 –Control of factors
   • Manipulation of the factor(s) of
   • Hold constant (“controlling”) factors
     Random Assignment
• Random assignment
 –Assigning participants to groups
  by chance
 –Eliminates alternative explanations
   • How?
 –Different from random sample
   • How?
      Random Assignment
• Blind (uninformed)
 – Single-Blind Procedure
 – Double-Blind Procedure
 – Which would be better? Why?
• Placebo Effect
 – Getting treatment
 – Dr. says it will work
 – More expensive pill
 Placebo Effect
 Placebo Effect
      Random Assignment
• Groups
  – Experimental Group
     • Receives the treatment (IV)
  – Control Group
     • Does not receive the treatment
  – Need for 2 Groups - comparison (Capital Punishment)
• Within-subjects vs. Between- Subjects
  – Comparing to selves
  – Own control group (pre/post-test)
  – Which is most efficient? More resistant to individual differences?
Independent and Dependent Variables
• Independent Variable
  – “What do researchers hope will cause the
    DV in the study?”
• Dependent Variable
  – “What is the researcher measuring or
    looking for in the study?”
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
 Experimentation - Other Concerns
• Confounding variable (aka Extraneous Variable)
  – Effect of random assignment on CVs?
• Forms of Bias If I wanted to prove that
  – Experimenter Bias   smoking causes heart
                        issues, what are some
     • Expectations influence outcome (maze bright rats)
     • How would you control for this? variables?
  – Research Participant Bias
     • Influenced by how they think they are supposed to behave
     • What does this relate to?

• Validity                                  Lifestyle and family
                                              history may also
  – Ecological Validity (Generalizability) – Do experimental
                                              effect the heart.
    methods & results generalize to real world? (mood / creativity)
  – Internal Validity – Extent to which changes in DV are due to
    manipulation of IV (Is it free from bias or errors?)
       Experimental Design
Possible Theory: Confidence affects performance
 Hypothesis: More difficult tasks will lower later
    performance on the same kinds of tasks

                                                  Time to
                               Hard Word List    Complete

                               Easy Word List     Time to
     Experimental Design
      ABC NEWS – Curly or Straight?

• Can you identify each of the following for
  the study:
  – Hypothesis:
  – Independent Variable:
  – Dependent Variable:
  – Controls?
  – Possible Problems with the study?
• Asch Experiment
      Ethics in Research

• Ethics in animal research
 –Reasons for using animals in
 –Safeguards for animal use
      Ethics in Research
• Ethics in human research
 –Informed consent
 –Protect from harm and
 –Maintain confidentiality
Statistical Reasoning in
     Everyday Life
• As you read pages 52-70 in textbook
                (Module 4)
• Due Wednesday / Test Friday
  – At the end of the module:
    • Answer the “Check Your Vocabulary” Section
       – #1-15
    • Answer the “Apply Your Knowledge Questions”
       – #1-10
    • Complete the “Writing about Psychology” Section
Four Scales of Measurement
• Nominal Data – Identifies categories
   – Ex. – yes/no answers on survey, class levels in
• Ordinal Data – Identifies order in which data falls
  in a set
   – Ex. – any ranking of items (i.e. class rank, top ten)
• Interval Data – Falls within a number line that has
  a 0 point
   – Ex. – weight, height, etc.
• Ratio Data – Fall in a number line where 0 is just
  another number
   – Ex. Temperature
         Describing Data
 Measures of Central Tendency
• Mode (occurs the most)
• Mean (arithmetic average)
• Median (middle score)
             Describing Data
         Measures of Variability
• Range
• Standard Deviation
Find the Mode, Mean, Median, Range, & Standard Deviation of
                   Friday’s Quiz Scores
       Describing Data
     Measures of Variability
• Normal Curve (bell shaped)
         Making Inferences
When Is an Observed Difference Reliable?
 • Representative samples are
   better than biased samples
 • Less-variable observations are
   more reliable than those that are
   more variable
 • More cases are better than fewer
        Making Inferences
 When Is a Difference Significant?
• Statistical significance
  –The averages are reliable
  –The differences between averages
   is relatively large
  –Does imply the importance of the
Frequently Asked Questions
    about Psychology
      Psychology Applied

• Can laboratory experiments
  illuminate everyday life?
 –The principles, not the research
  findings, help explain behavior
      Psychology Applied

• Does behavior depend on one’s
  culture and gender?
   • Influence of culture on behavior
   • More similarities than differences
The End
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   Kent Korek
   Germantown High School
   Germantown, WI 53022
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            Definition Slide
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            Hindsight Bias
= the tendency to believe, after learning an
  outcome, that one would have foreseen it.
• Also known as the “I knew it all along”
          Critical Thinking
= thinking that does not blindly accept
  arguments and conclusions. Rather, it
  examines assumptions, discerns hidden
  values, evaluates evidence, and assesses
= an explanation using an integrated set of
  principles that organizes observations and
  predicts behaviors or events.
= a testable prediction, often implied by a
       Operational Definition
= a statement of the procedures (operations)
  used to define research variables.
• i.e. Human intelligence may be
  operationally defined as what an
  intelligence test measures.
= repeating the essence of a research study,
  usually with different participants in
  different situations, to see whether the
  basic finding extends to other participants
  and circumstances.
              Case Study
= an observation technique in which one
  person is studied in depth in the hope of
  revealing universal principles.
= a technique for ascertaining the self-
  reported attitudes or behaviors of a
  particular group, usually by questioning a
  representative, random sample of the
= all the cases in a group being studied,
  from which samples may be drawn.
• Note: Except for national studies, this does
  NOT refer to a country’s whole population.
         Random Sample
= a sample that fairly represents a
  population because each member has an
  equal chance of inclusion.
      Naturalistic Observation
= observing and recording behavior in
  naturally occurring situations without trying
  to manipulate and control the situation.
= a measure of the extent to which two
  factors vary together, and thus of how well
  either factor predicts the other.
       Correlation Coefficient
= a statistical index of the relationship
  between two things (from -1 to +1).
= a graphed cluster of dots, each of which
  represents the values of two variables.
  The slope of the points suggests the
  direction of the relationship between the
  two variables. The amount of scatter
  suggests the strength of the correlation
  (little scatter indicates high correlation).
         Illusory Correlation
= the perception of a relationship where
  none exists.
= a research method in which an
  investigator manipulates one or more
  factors (independent variables) to observe
  the effect on some behavior or mental
  process (the dependent variable). By
  random assignment of participants, the
  experimenter aims to control other
  relevant factors.
        Random Assigment
= assigning participants to experimental and
  control groups by chance, thus minimizing
  preexisting differences between those
  assigned to the different groups.
      Double-Blind Procedure
= an experimental procedure in which both
  the research participants and the research
  staff are ignorant (blind) about whether the
  research participants have received the
  treatment or the placebo. Commonly used
  in drug-evaluation studies.
            Placebo Effect
= experimental results caused by
  expectation alone; any effect on behavior
  caused by the administration of an inert
  substance or condition, which the recipient
  assumes is an active agent.
        Experimental Group
= in an experiment, the group that is
  exposed to the treatment, that is, to one
  version of the independent variable.
            Control Group
= in an experiment, the group that is NOT
  exposed to the treatment; contrasts with
  the experimental group and serves as a
  comparison for evaluating the effect of
       Independent Variable
= the experimental factor that is
  manipulated; the variable whose effect is
  being studied.
       Confounding Variable
= a factor other than the independent
  variable that might produce an effect in an
        Dependent Variable
= the outcome factor; the variable that may
  change in response to manipulations of
  the independent variable.
= the most frequently occurring score(s) in a
= the arithmetic average of a distribution,
  obtained by adding the scores and then
  dividing by the number of scores.
= the middle score in a distribution, half the
  scores are above it and half are below it.
= the difference between the highest and
  lowest score in a distribution.
        Standard Deviation
= a computed measure of how much scores
  vary around the mean score.
             Normal Curve
= a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve that
  describes the distribution of many types of
  data; most scored fall near the mean (68
  percent fall within one standard deviation
  of it) and fewer and fewer near the
       Statistical Significance
= a statistical statement of how likely it is
  that an obtained result occurred by
= the enduring behavior, ideas, attitudes,
  and traditions shared by a group of people
  and transmitted from one generation to the
          Informed Consent
= an ethical principle that research
  participants be told enough to enable them
  to choose whether they wish to participate.
= the postexperimental explanation of a
  study, including its purpose and any
  deceptions, to its participants.

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