Mexico Water-Energy Nexus by X1OoHG9

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									Energy boom and groundwater bust:
Mexico’s water-energy nexus with
implications for the U.S. border region



Presented at First Western Forum on Energy and
Water Sustainability, Bren School of Environmental
Science & Management, Univ. of California, Santa
Barbara, 22 March 2007
       Energy Boom and
       Groundwater Bust
 Mexico’s Water-Energy Nexus with
Implications for the U.S. Border Region
            Christopher Scott
            University of Arizona
  Dept. of Geography & Regional Development, and
       Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy
What Nexus?
 Resources    – water and energy are
  coupled in fundamental ways
 Management – of water or energy in
  isolation likely has (unforeseen)
  consequences for the other resource
 Sustainability – policy tools for water,
  energy need to be mutually reinforcing
    Water-Energy Coupling
 Groundwater             energy for pumping
 Inter-basin transfers   lift, distribution
 Municipal supply        treatment, distribution
 Wastewater, reuse       treatment, desalination

reservoir storage          Hydropower
evaporative demand         Thermo-power
                            cooling
Resource Feedbacks


       Water         Energy
        use          demand


        Water        Energy
       demand         use
De-coupled Management…
 Watermanagement options tend to
 externalize energy implications, e.g.:
    ~70 billion kWh/yr for U.S. water and wastewater
        projected to increase 20% in 15 years
        greater if “desalination roadmap” is followed
    water represents 1/3 of municipal energy budgets
    groundwater irrigation is a large % of total electricity
     demand, e.g., in Mexico
        10% in Sonora state
        17% in Chihuahua state
        30% in Zacatecas state
… Needs to be [Re-] Coupled

 Energy management needs to
 internalize water implications:
  increased hydropower reliance entails sectoral
   water reallocation
  cooling water salt concentrations a major
   challenge (e.g., Phoenix’s Palo Verde uses high
   TDS effluent)
Sustainability and Policy
 Behind  groundwater boom-bust cycles
  (e.g., Mexico) are energy supply and
  pricing. Conversely:
 Energy supply and pricing offer tools
  for sustainable groundwater
  management
   Global Groundwater Boom
                        26,000   Groundwater Irrigation Ranking
             12,000                                                                                    45
                                         GW Area (000 ha)                                              40
             10,000                      % Cropped Area
                                                                                                       35
              8,000                                                                                    30
 ('000 ha)




                                                                                                       25
              6,000




                                                                                                            %
                                                                                                       20
              4,000                                                                                    15
                                                                                                       10
              2,000
                                                                                                       5
                 0                                                                                     0
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Source: Shah (in review);
                                                                di
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FAO AQUASTAT (2002).
               … Leading to Groundwater Bust
               Number of Wells in Mexico                                                                    GW Irrigation in India
                            Mexico, Number of Agricultural Wells                                                      India, Irrigated Area by Source
             100                                                                                       90

              90                                                                                       80
              80                                                                                       70
              70                                                                                       60
1000 wells




              60




                                                                                          Million ha
                                                                                                                                                              Groundw ater
                                                                                                       50
              50
                                                                                                       40
              40
              30                                                                                       30                                                     Surface (Minor)

              20                                                                                       20
              10                                                                                                                                      Surface (Major/Medium)
                                                                                                       10
               0
                                                                                                       0
               50

                      55

                             60

                                    65

                                           70

                                                  75

                                                         80

                                                                85

                                                                       90

                                                                              95

                                                                                     00




                                                                                                   50


                                                                                                              55


                                                                                                                     60


                                                                                                                            65


                                                                                                                                   70


                                                                                                                                          75


                                                                                                                                                 80


                                                                                                                                                         85


                                                                                                                                                                90


                                                                                                                                                                       95
             19

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                                         19

                                                19

                                                       19

                                                              19

                                                                     19

                                                                            19

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                                                                                                            19


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                                                                                                                                 19


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                      0.5
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                                                                          $
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                                                                                                                                                                   LIMITE ESTATAL
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                                  E s c al a gr‡f i c a



                 Pr oyecci—n Longitud - Latitud
                                                                                                                                                                   LIMITE INTERNACIONAL

                                                                                                                                                          NOMBRE DE LA REGION

                                                                                                                                                                   LOCALIDADES MAS POBLADAS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      LOS ACUIFEROS
25¡ N




                    EXPLICACION
                                        E XP L ICACION                                                                                                                                                                                                              SOBREEXPLOTADOS
                                     SOBREEXPLOTACION LOCAL
                    SOBREEXPLOTADO
                                   <
                                   < MANIFIESTA EN CONOS DE EXPLOTACION
                                   <
        SOBREEXPLOTADO
           EN EQUILIBRIO                                   1. Ascención No. Y NOMBRE DEL ACUIFERO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Este plano es esquemático


        EN EQUILIBRIO                                                         CABECERA MUNICIPAL
                                                               Jimenez


        SUBEXPLOTADO                                                            ZONA CON DECRETO DE VEDA                                        COMISION NACIONAL DEL AGUA
                                                                                                                                                                    Programa Hidráulico de Gran Visión
        SOBREEXPLOTACION LOCAL MANIFIESTA EN CONOS DE EXPLOTACION                                                                                                     C H I H U A H U A 1996 - 2020.

                                                                                                                                           ACUIFEROS Y ZONAS DE VEDA
                                                                                                                                   Fecha: nov 96'.
                                                                                                                                                                 API                           DHTA                        PROINFRA

                                                                                                                  Figura 8-2
    Groundwater-Energy Supply Nexus

   Groundwater
    overdraft and
    multiple
    impacts are
    driven by
    electricity
    supply and
    pricing
Increasing Volume, Declining Share
High Energy % for GW Pumping
        Ag. Groundwater Pumped, 2005
        (derived from energy data; national total ≈ 17.6 km3/year)




Country              Annual   No. of GW Extraction/   % of population
                  groundwater structures structure     dependent on
                    use (km3)  (million) (m3/year)     groundwater
India                 150       19         7,900           55-60

Pakistan-Punjab       45         0.5       90,000         60-65

China                 75         3.5       21,500         22-25

Iran                  45         0.5       58,000         12-18

Mexico                29         0.1      400,000           5-6

USA                  100         0.2      500,000          <1-2
Aquifer Overdraft
    GW Sustainability Initiatives
   1992 - water rights, titling wells
       Registro Público de Derechos de Agua (REPDA)
       annual concessioned volume
       water meters, but monitoring or compliance
        inadequate
   Water resource (river basin) master plans
       bans on new wells in overdrafted aquifers
       recharge programs (controversial, runoff impacts)
       groundwater user committees
Ag. GW Share of Total Water Titled
GW Titled ≠ GW Pumped
2002 – Mexico seized the GW-energy
nexus opportunity
 Rural Energy Law (Ley de Energía para el
  Campo) primarily to level the playing field
  for Mexican agriculture under NAFTA
 Power tariff structure modified with
  medium-term subsidy support
 Sliding-scale ag. power tariff with threshold
  fixed by energy equivalent of groundwater
  volume titled
2003 – lost the thread? … with lower
night-time ag. tariff, but ineffective
controls on volume or area irrigated
     Tarifas
    ($/kWh)
                     2003      2004      2005       Example:
     1. Doméstica     0.7496     0.793    0.8356
        Dom. alto                                    Chihuahua
         consumo       1.728    2.0443    2.1236
     5A. Servicios                                   tariffs
          públicos    1.3353    1.4186    1.4915
6. Agua Negras y
          Potables    0.9727     1.041    1.0982
                                                    US$ 1.00 =
  9. Agrícola baja
           tension    0.3805    0.4211    0.5357
                                                     Mex$ 10.80
      9M. Agrícola
    media tension     0.3933    0.4816    0.6051
    9CU. Agrícola
    costo unitario    0.3156    0.3928     0.435       32%
      9N. Agrícola                                     difference
         nocturna      0.281    0.3409    0.3657
                                                            Sonora Ag. Power Consumption                Chihuahua Ag. Power Consumption



Growth, night ag.                                     1,600,000
                                                      1,400,000
                                                      1,200,000
                                                                                                   1,600,000
                                                                                                   1,400,000
                                                                                                   1,200,000


power consumption
                                                      1,000,000                                    1,000,000




                                                                                             MWh
                                                MWh
                                                       800,000                                      800,000
                                                       600,000                                      600,000
                                                       400,000                   Night              400,000                    Night
                                                       200,000                   Reg./ day          200,000                    Reg./ day
                                                             0                                             0




                                                            88

                                                            90

                                                            92

                                                            94

                                                            96

                                                            98

                                                            00

                                                            02

                                                            04




                                                                                                          88

                                                                                                          90

                                                                                                          92

                                                                                                          94

                                                                                                          96

                                                                                                          98

                                                                                                          00

                                                                                                          02

                                                                                                          04
                                                          19

                                                          19

                                                          19

                                                          19

                                                          19

                                                          19

                                                          20

                                                          20

                                                          20




                                                                                                        19

                                                                                                        19

                                                                                                        19

                                                                                                        19

                                                                                                        19

                                                                                                        19

                                                                                                        20

                                                                                                        20

                                                                                                        20
                                                                                                        Coahuila Ag. Power Consumption


                                                                                                   1,600,000
                                                                                                   1,400,000
                                                                                                   1,200,000
                                                                                                   1,000,000




                                                                                             MWh
                                                                                                    800,000
                                                                                                    600,000
                                                                                                    400,000                    Night
                                                                                                    200,000                    Reg./ day
                                                                                                          0




                                                                                                         88

                                                                                                         90

                                                                                                         92

                                                                                                         94

                                                                                                         96

                                                                                                         98

                                                                                                         00

                                                                                                         02

                                                                                                         04
                                                                                                       19

                                                                                                       19

                                                                                                       19

                                                                                                       19

                                                                                                       19

                                                                                                       19

                                                                                                       20

                                                                                                       20

                                                                                                       20
                 Guanajuato Ag. Power Consumption


             1,600,000
             1,400,000
             1,200,000
             1,000,000
       MWh




              800,000
              600,000
              400,000                   Night
              200,000                   Reg./ day
                    0
                   88

                   90

                   92

                   94

                   96

                   98

                   00

                   02

                   04
                 19

                 19

                 19

                 19

                 19

                 19

                 20

                 20

                 20
Shift to Night-time Irrigation
Financially, A Losing Proposition?
… But Overall Profits High
GW-Based Intensive Ag. Production

 Exportsto U.S., Canada, Pacific rim
 Expanding Mexican domestic market
  Costa de Hermosillo (Sonora) grapes
  Cuauhtemoc (Chihuahua) apples

 Lowwater productivity in basic grains
 (wheat, corn) competing with high
 productivity horticulture
High Per-User Volumes (Titled)
Mexico’s Virtual Water Exports to
the U.S. are Groundwater
Mexico’s Virtual Water Imports are
Rainwater (w supplemental irrigation)
 Corn…   despite the ethanol-tortilla
  debacle
 Wheat

 Grain-fed beef

 Other animal products

 Deciduous fruit
   Virtual Water




Failure of the Virtual Water Argument: possible explanations using the case study of Mexico and
NAFTA – manuscript by Jorge Ramirez-Vallejo and Peter Rogers
Conclusions
 Boom    (partial collapse) of groundwater
  in northern Mexico fueled by electricity
  supply and pricing
 CNA (water) and CFE (electricity) at
  institutional loggerheads
 Energy supply management a promising
  tool for water demand management
Future Challenges

 Should   Mexico seek to manage virtual
  exports of groundwater? How?
 Urban growth in (northern) Mexico
  will increasingly appropriate
  groundwater
 Water-energy nexus for desalination?
                 Thank you.
            Christopher Scott
        cascott@email.arizona.edu
             (520) 626-4393

                    Acknowledgements
 Comisión Nacional del Agua
 Comisión Federal de Electricidad
 Tushaar Shah, International Water Management Institute
 Ana María Caliz, Tendencias – Consultores en Economía
 Jorge Ramirez-Vallejo and Peter Rogers, Harvard University

								
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