** * * * Case Studies of Resource Management Exam Wednesday 5/5, Here, 10 a.m. Study Guide will be on Olson’s Webpage Sit in your section Bring #2 pencil No communication devices Outline of lecture A. Preliminaries B. Case Studies i. Cuyahoga River ii. Aral Sea iii. Groundwater in arid regions iv. Acid Rain v. Photochemical Smog vi. Peak Oil Current World Population http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html You don’t have to be a wacko... …Or even a Democrat To be concerned about the environment! But… You should be interested in Conservation... Pardon my 2 minute intrusion, but IMNSHO Energy is the big issue… More particularly it’s POWER POWER = RATE of energy usage Global Power Usage (TW) – 87% Fossil Economic Energy Efficiency The U.S. Consumes 3.4 TW – about 22% of global Power Has 21% of economic productivity And 5% of the population To get to U.S. standards… To get to U.S. standards Since Productivity ~ Power consumption To get rest of world to U.S. level would require 60 TW power consumption Even at a German/British/Japanese level of power, we’re talking 30 TW Which is twice the current consumption Is this possible??? Is this Possible? In view of the fact that 87% of global power comes from fossil (carbon) fuels? There’s a lot of work to be done And there are no simple solutions Back to the lecture notes… What’s a (natural) resource ? Anything obtained from the environment to meet human needs and/or wants Examples Solarenergy Water Air Food Soil Minerals and Petroleum Nonrenewable Resources that can be exhausted on a human time scale Fossil fuels –Oil, natural gas, coal Nuclear Fission fuel –Uranium ore Metals (if not recycled) Renewable Resources are inexhaustible on a human time scale Not many examples: Solar energy, wind, geothermal, salt water, silicate rocks Others resources are… Potentially Renewable They can be inexhaustible, if properly managed – for example, Fresh water, clean air, trees, soil, metals The Rate of Use or Manner of Use of Potentially Renewable Resources Can be either Sustainable OR Non-sustainable This Lecture ... Will focus on three of the most fundamental material resources Water Air Fossil Fuels (Petroleum in particular) The first two are potentially renewable – Or better: potentially inexhaustible Problem with air Is quality (pollution) Problems with water include Both quality and quantity Problems with Fossil Fuels Are quantity (non-renewable – “Peaking”) and quality (Pollution and Climate Change Good News & Bad News Bad Good Water tends to stay Hydrologic Cycle in “compartments” continually where it can be recycles Earth’s depleted and water polluted Distributional problem Distribution of H2O Oceans (salt water) - over 97% Glaciers (ice) - almost 2% Of the remainder (available to humans): Lakes and streams - a little over 1% Groundwater - over 98% of fresh water – Very liable to be polluted and depleted The Cost of Pollution Internal vs. External Costs Most Costs are Internal Which are easily accounted for on the General Ledger: – Raw materials – Labor – Infrastructure – Fuel – Taxes Environmental Costs are mostly External What’s the cost (and to whom?) of the exhaust from your car? What’s the (environmental) cost of developing a piece of land? Usually very difficult for standard accounting, but can be roughly estimated sometimes… Catskill Watershed and the NYC Water Supply Protect the watershed from development or desalinate the Atlantic at a cost of 6 billion $ per year? CASE STUDY 1 Cuyahoga River, Ohio The Solution to Pollution... Is Dilution??? No, Only to a point… Proximal cognition, Bystander effect, Status Quo bias Location * Cuyahoga River Caught Fire June 1969 http://www.epa.gov/glnpo/aoc/cuyahoga.html Clean Water Acts Of 1972 and 1977 Goal: Make all of U.S. surface waters safe for fishing and swimming by 1983 Progress has been made, but goal not met Stream Recovery Fact: If they are not overloaded, Flowing waters (streams) recover rapidly from certain forms of pollution By dilution, aeration, and bacterial decay Cuyahoga today Much cleaner, especially upstream from Cleveland Nashua River, MA CASE STUDY 2 Aral Sea, Central Asia Former U.S.S.R. http://www.orexca.com/aral_sea.shtml Principle of Unintended Consequences Resulting from poor planning Proximal cognition, Status Quo bias, Cognitive dissonance, Confirmation bias LOCATION Central Asia Aral Sea Before 1960 Was once the world’s fourth largest fresh water lake (now it’s the 10 largest inland water body) th A five-year-plan of communist leadership called for agricultural development of area Starting in late 1950s, its two feeder rivers diverted for irrigation (mainly to grow cotton) What’s Wrong with this Picture? Aral Sea Results Surface area shrunk by 60% Volume decreased by 75% Split into two pieces ---> Aral Sea Results It’snow a salt lake - all fish have died, half of bird and mammal species gone Dry lake bottom contains salts and pesticides which blow around by winds => salt & dust storms Recovery of Aral Sea? Dam built on Small Aral Sea in 1990s to help restore water Only limited success so far Hard to reverse environmental damage... http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn3947 CASE STUDY 3 Groundwater depletion in Dry Climates U.S. Southwest and High Plains Overdrawing a Natural Resource “Checking Account” Spending more than you make has consequences… Status Quo bias, the Affect heuristic, Bystander effect, Cognitive dissonance Pumping and Recharge of an Aquifer Over-pumping drops water table Pumping rate exceeds recharge “Mining” Water Pumping water from an aquifer faster than it is recharged is analogous to mining of a non- renewable resource (like oil!) Two Examples Urban – Phoenix, AZ Rural – Ogallala Aquifer – “High Plains” region of near west Phoenix, AZ Population has grown from 110,000 in 1960 to 4,200,000 in 2008 Arid climate – Average annual rainfall = 8 inches Phoenix water usage Lots of swimming pools, golf courses, lawns Water supply is mainly from groundwater Is this sustainable? Depletion of Soil Water Nearly 500 foot drop in water table in the Santa Cruz basin Another SW Example Borrego Springs, CA Near San Diego Ogallala Aquifer As much water as Lake Huron Formed from sediments and run- off from the Rockies over 10 Ma No longer recharged by Rockies run-off This is a semi-arid region with abundant agriculture Rich soil, but it needs to be irrigated 94% of the water from the Ogallala is used for agriculture Region provides 20% of U.S.’s agricultural productivity – But it’s completely dependent on irrigation Overdrawing the Account Recharge from rainfall averages 1 inch per year Drawdown averages 200 inches per year Average thickness of aquifer is 200 feet Do the math! – Obviously not sustainable Wasteful Irrigation Practices Center-Pivot Irrigation – Lots of evaporation loss Are being replaced by more conservative practices LEPA Low-Energy Precision Application Wasteful Irrigation Practices Like by flooding Need to end Conservation Practices so far can only Slow the rate of depletion, Not make this a sustainable (renewable) resource CASE STUDY 4 Acid Rain Eastern U.S. and Canada http://classes.colgate.edu/aleventer/geol101/acidadir/acid13.htm Who has the authority... To regulate conflicting interests? Proximal cognition, bystander effect Coal burning releases sulfur dioxide Regions with lots of SO2 emissions Acid Rain Results when sulfur and nitrogen oxides mix with water in clouds Recall: At our latitudes, prevailing winds blow from west to east So, where do you think this rain falls? Regions affected by Acid Rain How Acid is Acid Rain? Results of Acid Rain include ... Dead trees, especially conifers Dead fish and other aquatic life – About 6% of Adirondack lakes are fishless ----> Damage to buildings, statues and car finishes Canadian Parliament buildings in Ottawa ===> A little bit about Politics... Bearing in mind the Acid Rain scenario, Should (at least) air pollution regulation occur at the state or federal level ? Eyjafjallajokull CASE STUDY 5 Los Angeles, CA Photochemical smog http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/air/vehicle/nrtbpsag.html Cars, Geography, and High Population You can’t have it all! Status Quo bias, Affect heuristic, Bystander effect, Confirmation bias Photochemical Smog Clear day ===> Note the brown haze of photochemical smog ====> Unfortunate Conditions Hot, sunny weather PLUS Automobile exhaust YIELDS Photochemical Smog A noxious mixture that includes ozone - the “bad” kind O3 Made worse sometimes by weather condition called a thermal inversion Thermal Inversion Cooler Cool Cool Warm inversion layer Warm Cool NORMAL THERMAL INVERSION On a clear day ... Downtown L.A. - Civic Center During a high level thermal inversion ... Pollution is trapped, bad air can’t rise During a low level thermal inversion ... Pollution trapped near surface Main cultural culprit is the Internal combustion engine (Gasoline and diesel) Peak Oil What is it? How does it affect us? There’s always more … Isn’t there? Conservation Psychology Dr. Seely, April 14 What is Oil? Also know as crude oil or Petroleum, “rock oil” It’s a type of fossil fuel A non-renewable resource Terminology Resource – Renewable, Potentially Renewable, Non-Renewable – Oil is non-renewable Reserves Discovery Production Reserves Natural resources have reserves – that is the amount that is available for extraction with current technology at a profit For oil, profit also means both a monetary profit and an energy “profit” Economic issues are involved in reserves Two types of ROI (Return On Investment) – Monetary ROI (do you make a profit?) – EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) Oilaverages about 5 to 1 right now Corn alcohol is about 1.6 to 1 Discovery of a resource Definition is pretty obvious Discovery of a resource Requires investment in exploration Unless you’re Jed Clampett Production Amount of resource extracted from Earth, per day or per year – Oil is measured in barrels (bbl) 1 bbl = 42 gallons Global oil production was 84.2 million bbl per day in 2009, 84.9 in 2008, 84.4 in 2007 – 76 million in 2000 – 65.5 million in 1990 – 63 million in 1980 How Oil Forms How oil forms * Dead plankton accumulate on the ocean floor during times when the oceanic circulation stops and the bottom of the ocean goes anoxic Thousands of feet of this material accumulates Then it is buried by other sediments * From a Web forum posting by Glenn Morton How oil forms As the sediment is buried deeper, the temperature rises “cooking” the organic rich shales, like the oil shales in the Rockies This cooking releases oil from the rock How oil forms Pressure fractures the source rock allowing the oil to float up because oil is less dense than water The oil will float up until it hits a place where some impermeable upper rock layer or “cap” won't let it pass – the overall structure is called a “trap”. Geology of a typical oil deposit M. King Hubbert He was a geophysicist who in the 1950s Predicted an absolute maximum or “peak” in oil production around 2004- 2008 – often referred to as “Hubbert’s Peak” Here’s his model: Hubbert’s Production Peak “Peak Oil” Occurs when the demand (consumption) for oil equals or exceeds peak production Oily Facts Global oil consumption was 84.0 million barrels per day in 2009 – 20 million bbl/day in 1960 – 60 mbbl/day in 1980 – 85.8 mbbl/day in 2007 At 2000-07 rate of increase, would be 120 million in 2020 So far, production has been able to meet demand – can this continue??? Global Oil Production Will eventually reach a maximum At which time, demand for oil will equal production rate (= Peak Oil) The result? Very high prices, and even more importantly… Shortages Ultimately this will lead to economic recession The four most productive oil fields Al Ghawar, Saudi Arabia: 4.5 million barrels/day (5% global total) Cantarell, Mexico: 2.1 million (2%) Burgan, Kuwait: 1 million (1%) Da Qing, China: 1 million (1%) Only one of these was discovered after 1960 --- Cantarell in 1976 New Oil exploration? The annual exploration cost for the 10 companies as a group exceeded the estimated value of annual new discoveries made in both 2001 and 2002 – a reversal from previous years… In spite of high prices, “Big Oil” companies have cut their exploration budgets – This would be bizarre from a pure business standpoint, UNLESS they thought there was little chance of finding large deposits Oil found by exploration drill bit (billions of barrels) 1997 4.5 1998 5.8 1999 9.5 2000 13.05 2001 4.02 2002 3.34 2005 4.5 Bear in mind that we consume (demand) over 30 billion per year! Discovery Trends Is ANWR the solution? Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Has been a political football for over a decade Should its oil supply be exploited or not? Environmental damage vs. U.S oil independence… Environmentalists vs. the Economy… – Ye Olde “Warfare” model ANWR’s Reserve Estimates Low estimate: 4.3 billion barrels (95% probability) High estimate: 11.8 billion barrels (5% probability) The high estimate is a bit more than the U.S. consumes in one year! Well, it’s nice that it’s there, but it doesn’t seem to be a long-term solution to U.S. energy independence Peak Oil Analogy Production Rate and Inheriting a Fortune Analogy Suppose you were given a billion dollars in special bank account, but… Could withdraw only $100 a day indefinitely Would you still be a billionaire? Analogous to oil --- maybe a trillion barrels of molecules left in ground (resource), but… There’s a maximum rate that it can be withdrawn (produced) What about the last years? Global economic recession Leads to lower demand Oil demand is (temporarily) below Peak Won’t last long! And when demand returns, the situation will likely be worse Epilogue – page 1 The oil crisis and AGW have a similar solution: replacing carbon fuels with potentially renewable energy resources Even if you are skeptical about AGW, many of the solutions in any sensible scheme are shared with reducing use of oil/energy and with reducing pollution in cities. Epilogue – page 2 This solution will entail some compromises, including personal energy conservation and even (~shudder~) nuclear fission – which is the only energy source that can replace the sheer amount of energy of oil in the short term Epilogue – page 3 Ultimately, we need to mimic the way the Sun makes its energy - Hydrogen fusion At the present there is no technology to do this, and maybe there will never be –And Hydrogen bombs don’t count, remember Core 5 World Population Check: http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/popclockw How many people have been added during this lecture?