Long range weather forecast by 2JoQJo

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									    Seasonal Climate Forecast
      August – October 2012
                  (Issued: July 18, 2012)




    This Product is Published by the Oregon
Department of Agriculture (ODA), in Cooperation
with the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF).


   Contact: ODF Meteorologist Pete Parsons
  at 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us
   http://oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/weather.shtml#Weather_forecasts
    Tropical Pacific Ocean Highlights
 ENSO-neutral (near normal) conditions are
continuing. However, eastern Pacific sea-surface
temperature (SST) anomalies exceed +.5°C.
 Statistical computer models favor ENSO-neutral
conditions through 2012, but dynamic models
favor El Niño (warmer than normal SSTs)
development by the July-September 2012 period.
 The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued
an “El Niño Watch,” with forecaster consensus
favoring the dynamic model predictions.
Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory
                  Tropical Pacific Ocean
   Animated (in PowerPoint only) SSTs (top) / Anomalies (bottom)




Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml
                  Tropical Pacific Ocean
             “ENSO Neutral” conditions are continuing…




Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstweek_c.gif
              Tropical Pacific Ocean
Dynamic computer models predict the development of “El Niño”



                                                  El Niño




                                                  La Niña




      Courtesy: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html
                   Tropical Pacific Ocean
ODA “Analogs” also show a transition to “El Niño” this autumn
              SOI* Values For the Top "Analog Years"
                   and the Current Year (2011-12)
                  (2008-09; 1971-72; 1950-51)
       3.0

       2.5

       2.0
                                           La Niña
       1.5
                                                                                     2011-12
       1.0
                                                                                     2008-09
 SOI




       0.5                                                                           1971-72

       0.0                                                                           1950-51

       -0.5

       -1.0

       -1.5
                                          El Niño
       -2.0
              J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
                                          Month
  *For SOI explanation see: http://oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/docs/pdf/forecast_method.pdf
                  Tropical Pacific Ocean
ODA “Analogs” also show a transition to “El Niño” this autumn
              ONI* Values For the Top "Analog Years"
                   and the Current Year (2011-12)
                  (2008-09; 1971-72; 1950-51)
       2.5

       2.0

       1.5

       1.0
                                           El Niño
                                                                                     2011-12
       0.5
 ONI




                                                                                     2008-09
       0.0
                                                                                     1971-72
       -0.5
                                                                                     1950-51
       -1.0

       -1.5
                                           La Niña
       -2.0



                                3-Month Running Mean
  *For ONI explanation see: http://oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/docs/pdf/forecast_method.pdf
                Tropical Pacific Ocean
The CPC/IRI consensus forecast favors “El Niño” development




    El Niño development is likely this late-summer and autumn




   Courtesy: http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=945&mode=2
Oregon Forecast Zone Map
               August 2012 Forecast
       Temperatures                      Precipitation




   Warmer than normal temperatures (except along the coast).
   Near to slightly below normal precipitation.
   Significant wildfire potential east of the Cascades.
            September 2012 Forecast
       Temperatures                      Precipitation




   Warmer than normal temperatures (except along the coast).
   Near to slightly below normal precipitation.
   Greater “analog” differences; lower forecast confidence.
              October 2012 Forecast
        Temperatures                      Precipitation




   Below to well-below normal temperatures.
   Above normal precipitation, especially western zones.
   Less “analog” variation; greater forecast confidence.
      August – October 2012 Forecast
        Temperatures                        Precipitation




   After a relatively warm and dry late-summer, a cold October
    may skew 3-month temperature departures to the cool side.
   Dry early; wet late (3-month rainfall slightly above average).
           Updated Monthly
              (around the              20 th)




Your Feedback is Welcome

 Contact: Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist
  503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us
ODA Production support from Diana Walker and Mary Jane Schaffer

								
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