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Major Power Markets in Eastern Europe to 2020 - Renewable Resources, Privatization, and Easing Barriers to Entry in Russia, Czech Republic, Poland, Ukraine and Turkey by GBIResearch

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GBI Research, a leading business intelligence provider, has released its latest research, “Major Power Markets in Eastern Europe to 2020 - Renewable Resources, Privatization, and Easing Barriers to Entry in Russia, Czech Republic, Poland, Ukraine and Turkey”. The report provides an in-depth analysis of the major Eastern Europe power markets: Russia, Poland, Turkey, the Czech Republic and the Ukraine. The report covers cumulative installed capacity and power generation from 2005 to 2020 for thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power and renewable power, including share by fuel type for thermal power and share by technology type for renewable power. The report also includes Porter’s Five Force analysis and the competitive landscape for the five countries in 2011. Further to this, it analyses macroeconomic factors, import and export scenarios from 2005 to 2010, annual electricity consumption data from 2005 to 2020, and the top active and upcoming power plants for thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power and renewable power. The report covers regulatory structures and infrastructure, including transmission and distribution networks from 2005 to 2020, grid interconnections and planned investments for each of the five countries. This report is built using data and information sourced through primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GBI Research’s team of industry experts.

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									Major Power Markets in Eastern Europe to 2020
Renewable Resources, Privatization, and Easing Barriers to Entry in Russia,
Czech Republic, Poland, Ukraine and Turkey
GBI Research Report Guidance




                                              GBI Research Report Guidance
                                              ·     Chapter two describes the methodology used to rank the major power markets in Eastern Europe
                                                    based on the future attractiveness of their power industries.
                                              ·     Chapter three gives an overview of the electricity industry in the major power markets in Eastern
                                                    Europe and discusses the present scenario for the electricity sector.
                                                    ·    Section one gives an overview of the major power markets in the major power markets in Eastern
                                                         Europe.
                                                    ·    Section two focuses on a Porter’s Five Forces model analysis of the major power markets in the
                                                         Eastern European power market.
                                                    ·    Section three gives an overview of the major power markets in the major power markets in
                                                         Eastern Europe by installed capacity.
                                                    ·    Section four provides information on trends in power generation and consumption in the major
                                                         power markets in Eastern Europe.
                                              ·     Chapters four-ten analyze the power markets of the countries in the major power markets in Eastern
                                                    Europe.
                                                    ·    Section one of each chapter provides a market overview.
                                                    ·    Section two analyzes the import and export scenario.
                                                    ·    Section three analyzes the demand and consumption scenario.
                                                    ·    Section four analyzes the annual power consumption.
                                                    ·    Section five highlights the capacity analysis of each country.
                                                    ·    Section six showcases power generation and forecasts.
                                                    ·    Section seven provides information on power generating companies in each country.
                                                    ·    Sections eight and nine discuss the regulatory and infrastructure environment in each country.




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                                                                                                                                                       Page 2
Executive Summary




    The cumulative installed
                                              Executive Summary
    power capacity for the major              Cumulative Installed Capacity in the Major Power Markets in Eastern Europe will Reach 541.7 GW by 2020
    power markets in Eastern
    Europe is expected to reach               The cumulative installed power capacity for the major power markets in Eastern Europe, which comprises
    541.7 Giga-watts (GW) of                  Russia, Poland, Turkey, the Czech Republic and the Ukraine, is expected to grow at a Compound Annual
    installed capacity                        Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.3% from 2012 to 2020, to reach 541.7 Giga-watts (GW) of installed capacity. In
                                              addition, thermal resource-based installed capacity is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.8%, while renewable
                                              and hydro sources are expected to grow at CAGRs of 16.5% and 2.1%, respectively. Nuclear power in these
                                              countries is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9% from 2012 to 2020. Economic growth in the region declined
                                              in 2009 due to the economic downturn; however, increasing economic activity in Eastern Europe is
                                              evidence of recovery from this downturn. Also, rapid industrialization to meet the demands of growing
                                              populations is expected to strengthen economic growth in the region.

                                                Power Market, Major Eastern European Countries, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020

                                                                                                600,000




                                                                                                500,000
                                                     Total Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW)




                                                                                                400,000




                                                                                                300,000




                                                                                                200,000




                                                                                                100,000




                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                          2005   2010         2015               2020

                                                                                                                        th
                                                Source: GBI Research’s Proprietary Power Database (Accessed: May 17 , 2012)




                                              Thermal Power to Maintain Dominance by 2020
                                              The power market in the major Eastern European countries is dominated by thermal power, which
                                              accounted for 68.7% of total installed capacity in 2011. In all countries in this region, most installed capacity
                                              for power generation is fossil fuel-based. The share of thermal power is expected to decrease from 68.7% in
                                              2011 to 60.3% by 2020, although it will maintain its dominance over other resources. Although these
                                              countries are focused on diversifying their energy mix to include renewable power, renewable power
                                              generation alone cannot meet population demands. The main reason behind the growth of thermal power
                                              generation is the presence of abundant natural resources in Eastern Europe, and the high capacity factor of
                                              thermal power generation when compared to other resources. This makes this kind of power generation a
                                              more profitable and pragmatic solution to immediately meet power needs.




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                                                                                                                                                               Page 3
Executive Summary




                                              Major Eastern Europe Power Markets Undergoing Restructuring
                                              Most of the countries in the major Eastern Europe power market region are currently in a phase of
                                              restructuring, in terms of privatization of the power market, a change in focus towards renewable resources
                                              and the easing the entry barriers into the power market. For example, in Russia, efforts are being made to
                                              offer stakes in key companies and provide significant opportunities for foreign investors through a large
                                              scale privatization program from 2011 to 2013. Also, the Russian government is making strong efforts to
                                              decrease corruption in order to ease the entry barrier to its power market. Also, Poland is planning to
                                              include a higher share of renewable energy in its energy mix in the future, and Turkey is taking steps to
                                              liberalize the power market. This is expected to lead to better investment, competition and transparency in
                                              the country’s electricity sector. In the Czech Republic, the investment scenario is expected to score higher in
                                              the future due to the government’s efforts to open the country to higher foreign investment. Incentives for
                                              renewable energy investments are expected to promote larger investments in the country, and
                                              subsequently, the ease of doing business is expected to improve. Furthermore, the Ukraine is also expected
                                              to exploit a higher share of its renewable energy sources, which will ensure that the country’s resource
                                              potential scores better in the future.
                                              Nuclear Power Capacity Growth in the Region Expected To Be Lean In Short Term But Very Optimistic In
                                              Long Term
                                              The Nuclear Power Market in the Major Eastern Europe Power Market countries had a share of mere 10.7%
                                              in 2011 out of the total installed capacity in the region. Currently, there are no nuclear plants in Poland and
                                              Turkey. However, Turkey is expected to have the nuclear power capacity of 1,200 MW in 2018 which will
                                              eventually grow up to 6,700 MW by 2020. Russia is also expected to have a major growth with cumulative
                                              installed capacity to grow at a CAGR of 10.6% during 2012-2020.The cumulative installed capacity of the
                                              major power markets in Eastern Europe is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.95% from 42,969 MW in 2012 to
                                              85,313 MW in 2020. The share of nuclear capacity in the total installed capacity for the region is also
                                              expected to grow to 15.7% by 2020.




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                                                                                                                                                        Page 4
Table of Contents




                                              1          Table of Contents
                                              1 Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................................ 5
                                                1.1      List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. 10
                                                1.2      List of Figures................................................................................................................................. 13
                                              2 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 15
                                                2.1      Methodology Adopted to Rank the Major Eastern European Countries ....................................... 15
                                                2.2      Country-level Parameters .............................................................................................................. 15
                                                    2.2.1      Business Viability ................................................................................................................... 15
                                                2.3      Industry-specific Parameters ......................................................................................................... 16
                                                    2.3.1      Power Generation ................................................................................................................. 16
                                                    2.3.2      Power Installed Capacity ....................................................................................................... 16
                                                    2.3.3      Consumption Growth Rate .................................................................................................... 16
                                                2.4      Weight Assigned to the Parameters .............................................................................................. 17
                                                2.5      Country Selection Methodology .................................................................................................... 18
                                              3 Major Power Markets in the Eastern European Market to 2020 .............................................................. 19
                                                3.1      Power Market in the Major Eastern European Countries, Overview ............................................ 19
                                                3.2      Power Market, Major Eastern European Countries, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, 2011 ............. 19
                                                    3.2.1      Barriers to Entry .................................................................................................................... 20
                                                    3.2.2      Bargaining Power of Buyers .................................................................................................. 20
                                                    3.2.3      Bargaining Power of Suppliers .............................................................................................. 20
                                                    3.2.4      Threat of Substitute............................................................................................................... 20
                                                    3.2.5      Intensity of Competition ........................................................................................................ 21
                                                3.3      Power Market, Major Eastern European Countries, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-
                                                         2020............................................................................................................................................... 21
                                                3.4      Power Market, Major Eastern European Countries, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of
                                                         Power Plant (%), 2011-2020 .......................................................................................................... 23
                                                3.5      Electricity Markets in the Major Eastern European Countries, Cumulative Installed Capacity by
                                                         Country (%), 2011-2020................................................................................................................. 24
                                                3.6      Power Market, Major Eastern European Countries, Changing Trends in Generation and
                                                         Consumption ................................................................................................................................. 26
                                              4 Russia Power Market to 2020 ................................................................................................................... 28
                                                4.1      Power Market, Russia, Overview ................................................................................................... 28
                                                    4.1.1      Power Market, Russia, Macro-economic Scenario ................................................................ 28
                                                4.2      Power Market, Russia, Import and Export Scenario ...................................................................... 30
                                                    4.2.1      Power Market, Russia, Total Annual Imports, 2005-2010 ..................................................... 30
                                                    4.2.2      Power Market, Russia, Total Annual Exports, 2005-2010 ..................................................... 30
                                                4.3      Power Market, Russia, Demand and Consumption Scenario ........................................................ 31
                                                4.4      Power Market, Russia, Annual Power Consumption, 2005-2020 .................................................. 32
                                                4.5      Power Market, Russia, Cumulative Installed Capacity, 2005-2020 ............................................... 34
                                                    4.5.1      Power Market, Russia, Total Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 .................... 34
                                                    4.5.2      Power Market, Russia, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 ..... 36
                                                    4.5.3      Power Market, Russia, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity, 2005-2020 ......................... 37
                                                    4.5.4      Power Market, Russia, Cumulative Hydro Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020................... 41
                                                    4.5.5      Power Market, Russia, Cumulative Nuclear Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 ................ 43
                                                    4.5.6      Power Market, Russia, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020........... 45
                                                4.6      Power Market, Russia, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 .......................................... 49
                                                    4.6.1      Power Market, Russia, Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 .................... 51
                                                    4.6.2      Power Market, Russia, Annual Hydropower Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 ........................ 53
                                                    4.6.3      Power Market, Russia, Annual Nuclear Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 ..................... 55
                                                    4.6.4      Power Market, Russia, Annual Renewable Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020................ 57
                                                4.7      Power Market, Russia, Top Active and Upcoming Projects ........................................................... 59
                                                    4.7.1      Active Power Projects ............................................................................................................ 59


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                                                    4.7.2     Upcoming Power Projects ..................................................................................................... 63
                                                  4.8    Power Market, Russia, Competitive Landscape, 2011 ................................................................... 66
                                                  4.9    Power Market, Russia, Regulatory Structure................................................................................. 67
                                                    4.9.1     Power Market, Russia, Regulatory Structure, Overview ........................................................ 67
                                                    4.9.2     Power Market, Russia, Power Sector Restructuring .............................................................. 67
                                                    4.9.3     Power Market, Russia, Renewable policy .............................................................................. 67
                                                    4.9.4     Power Market, Russia, Energy Efficiency ............................................................................... 68
                                                4.10 Power Market, Russia, Infrastructure............................................................................................ 68
                                                    4.10.1 Power Market, Russia, Infrastructure Overview .................................................................... 68
                                                    4.10.2 Power Market, Russia, Infrastructure, Transmission and Distribution Network (ckm), 2005-
                                                              2020 ...................................................................................................................................... 69
                                                    4.10.3 Grid Interconnection.............................................................................................................. 70
                                                    4.10.4 Planned Investments ............................................................................................................. 70
                                              5 Poland Power Market to 2020 .................................................................................................................. 71
                                                5.1      Power Market, Poland, Overview .................................................................................................. 71
                                                    5.1.1     Power Market, Poland, Macro-economic Scenario ............................................................... 71
                                                5.2      Power Market, Poland, Import and Export Scenario ..................................................................... 73
                                                    5.2.1     Power Market, Poland, Total Annual Imports (GWh), 2005-2010......................................... 73
                                                    5.2.2     Power Market, Poland, Total Annual Exports (GWh), 2005-2010 ......................................... 73
                                                5.3      Power Market, Poland, Demand and Consumption Scenario ....................................................... 74
                                                5.4      Power Market, Poland, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2005-2020...................................... 75
                                                5.5      Power Market, Poland, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 .................................... 77
                                                    5.5.1     Power Market, Poland, Total Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 ................... 77
                                                    5.5.2     Power Market, Poland, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 .... 79
                                                    5.5.3     Power Market, Poland, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 .............. 80
                                                    5.5.4     Power Market, Poland, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020........ 84
                                                    5.5.5     Power Market, Poland, Cumulative Nuclear Installed Capacity, 2005-2020 ......................... 85
                                                    5.5.6     Power Market, Poland, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 .......... 86
                                                5.6      Poland Power Market, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 .......................................... 90
                                                    5.6.1     Poland Thermal Power Market, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 .................... 92
                                                    5.6.2     Poland Hydropower Market, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020......................... 94
                                                    5.6.3     Poland Renewable Power Market, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020................ 96
                                                5.7      Poland Power Market, Top Active and Upcoming Projects ........................................................... 98
                                                    5.7.1     Active Power Projects ............................................................................................................ 98
                                                    5.7.2     Upcoming Power Projects ................................................................................................... 101
                                                5.8      Power Market, Poland, Competitive Landscape, 2011 ................................................................ 103
                                                5.9      Power Market, Poland, Regulatory Structure.............................................................................. 104
                                                    5.9.1     Power Market, Poland, Regulatory Structure Overview ...................................................... 104
                                                    5.9.2     Poland, Power Market, Energy Law Act Amendments ........................................................ 104
                                                    5.9.3     Power Market, Poland, Energy Policy until 2030................................................................. 104
                                                    5.9.4     Power Market, Poland, Renewable Energy ......................................................................... 105
                                                    5.9.5     Power Market, Poland, Development Strategy for the Renewable Energy Sector .............. 106
                                                    5.9.6     Power Market, Poland, EU Structural and Cohesion Funds ................................................. 106
                                                    5.9.7     Power Market, Poland, Loans from the National Fund for Environmental Protection and
                                                              Water Management............................................................................................................ 106
                                                    5.9.8     Power Market, Poland, Red Certificate System ................................................................... 106
                                                    5.9.9     Power Market, Poland, Act on Electricity Production from Cogeneration ........................... 107
                                                    5.9.10 Power Market, Poland, Green Investment Scheme (GIS)..................................................... 107
                                                    5.9.11 Power Market, Poland, Program for Renewable Energy and High-Efficiency Cogeneration
                                                              Projects................................................................................................................................ 107
                                                    5.9.12 Power Market, Poland, Exemption from Consumption Tax................................................. 108
                                                    5.9.13 Power Market, Poland, Financial Incentives and Policy Support for Solar Power ............... 108


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                                                    5.9.14 Power Market, Poland, Financial Incentives and Policy Support for Wind Power ............... 108
                                                    5.9.15 Power Market, Poland, Financing of Wind Energy Projects ................................................ 108
                                                    5.9.16 Power Market, Poland, Financial Incentives and Policy Support for Hydropower ............... 109
                                                    5.9.17 Power Market, Poland, Financial Incentives and Policy Support for Bioenergy................... 110
                                                    5.9.18 Power Market, Poland, Policy Support for Energy Efficiency............................................... 111
                                                5.10 Power Market, Poland, Infrastructure......................................................................................... 111
                                                    5.10.1 Power Market, Poland, Infrastructure Overview ................................................................. 111
                                                    5.10.2 Power Market, Poland, Infrastructure, Transmission and Distribution Network (ckm), 2005-
                                                              2020 .................................................................................................................................... 112
                                                    5.10.3 Grid Interconnection............................................................................................................ 113
                                              6 Turkey Power Market to 2020 ................................................................................................................ 114
                                                6.1      Power Market, Turkey, Overview ................................................................................................ 114
                                                    6.1.1     Power Market, Turkey, Macro-economic Scenario.............................................................. 114
                                                6.2      Power Market, Turkey, Import and Export Scenario ................................................................... 116
                                                    6.2.1     Power Market, Turkey, Total Annual Imports (GWh), 2005-2010 ....................................... 116
                                                    6.2.2     Power Market, Turkey, Total Annual Exports (GWh), 2005-2010 ....................................... 116
                                                6.3      Turkey Power Market, Demand and Consumption Scenario ...................................................... 117
                                                6.4      Turkey Power Market, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2005-2020 ..................................... 118
                                                6.5      Power Market, Turkey, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 .................................. 120
                                                    6.5.1     Power Market, Turkey, Total Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 ................. 120
                                                    6.5.2     Power Market, Turkey, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 .. 122
                                                    6.5.3     Power Market, Turkey, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 ............ 123
                                                    6.5.4     Power Market, Turkey, Cumulative Hydro Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 ................ 127
                                                    6.5.5     Power Market, Turkey, Cumulative Nuclear Installed Capacity, 2005-2020 ....................... 128
                                                    6.5.6     Power Market, Turkey, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 ........ 129
                                                6.6      Power Market, Turkey, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 ....................................... 133
                                                    6.6.1     Power Market, Turkey, Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 ................. 135
                                                    6.6.2     Power Market, Turkey, Annual Hydropower Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 ...................... 137
                                                    6.6.3     Power Market, Turkey, Annual Renewable Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 ............. 139
                                                6.7      Power Market, Turkey, Top Active and Upcoming Projects ........................................................ 141
                                                    6.7.1     Active Power Projects .......................................................................................................... 141
                                                    6.7.2     Upcoming Power Projects ................................................................................................... 144
                                                6.8      Power Market, Turkey, Competitive Landscape, 2011 ................................................................ 147
                                                6.9      Power Market, Turkey, Regulatory Structure .............................................................................. 148
                                                    6.9.1     Power Market, Turkey, Regulatory Structure Overview ...................................................... 148
                                                    6.9.2     Power Market, Turkey, Energy Efficiency Law..................................................................... 148
                                                    6.9.3     Feed-in Tariff ....................................................................................................................... 149
                                                    6.9.4     Use of Renewable Energy Resources for the Generation of Electrical Energy (Law No. 5346)
                                                              ............................................................................................................................................ 151
                                                    6.9.5     Energy Efficiency Law, 2007 (Law No. 5627) ....................................................................... 151
                                                    6.9.6     Financial Incentives and Policy Support for Geothermal Power, Turkey.............................. 152
                                                6.10 Power Market, Turkey, Infrastructure ......................................................................................... 153
                                                    6.10.1 Power Market, Turkey, Overview ........................................................................................ 153
                                                    6.10.2 Power Market, Turkey, Infrastructure, Transmission and Distribution Network (ckm), 2005-
                                                              2020 .................................................................................................................................... 153
                                                    6.10.3 Grid Interconnection............................................................................................................ 154
                                              7 The Czech Republic Power Market to 2020 ............................................................................................ 155
                                                7.1      Power Market, The Czech Republic, Overview ............................................................................ 155
                                                    7.1.1     Power Market, The Czech Republic, Macro-economic Scenario .......................................... 155
                                                7.2      Power Market, The Czech Republic, Import and Export Scenario ............................................... 157
                                                    7.2.1     Power Market, The Czech Republic, Total Annual Imports (GWh), 2005-2010 ................... 157
                                                    7.2.2     Power Market, The Czech Republic, Total Annual Exports (GWh), 2005-2010 .................... 157


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                                                  7.3    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Demand and Consumption Scenario ................................. 158
                                                  7.4    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2005-2020................ 159
                                                  7.5    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 .............. 161
                                                    7.5.1    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Total Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020
                                                              ............................................................................................................................................ 161
                                                    7.5.2    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant
                                                             (%), 2011 ............................................................................................................................. 163
                                                    7.5.3    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-
                                                             2020 .................................................................................................................................... 164
                                                    7.5.4    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Cumulative Hydro Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020
                                                              ............................................................................................................................................ 168
                                                    7.5.5    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Cumulative Nuclear Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020
                                                              ............................................................................................................................................ 170
                                                    7.5.6    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-
                                                             2020 .................................................................................................................................... 172
                                                7.6      Power Market, The Czech Republic, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 ................... 176
                                                    7.6.1    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020
                                                              ............................................................................................................................................ 178
                                                    7.6.2    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Annual Hydropower Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 .. 180
                                                    7.6.3    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Annual Nuclear Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020
                                                              ............................................................................................................................................ 182
                                                    7.6.4    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Annual Renewable Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020
                                                              ............................................................................................................................................ 184
                                                7.7      Power Market, The Czech Republic, Top Active and Upcoming Projects .................................... 186
                                                    7.7.1    Active Power Projects .......................................................................................................... 186
                                                    7.7.2    Upcoming Power Projects ................................................................................................... 190
                                                7.8      Power Market, The Czech Republic, Competitive Landscape, 2011 ............................................ 191
                                                7.9      Power Market, The Czech Republic, Regulatory Structure .......................................................... 192
                                                    7.9.1    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Regulatory Structure Overview................................... 192
                                                    7.9.2    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Enhancement
                                                              ............................................................................................................................................ 192
                                                    7.9.3    Power Market, The Czech Republic, Nuclear Policy ............................................................. 193
                                                7.10 Power Market, The Czech Republic, Infrastructure ..................................................................... 193
                                                    7.10.1 Power Market, The Czech Republic, Infrastructure Overview.............................................. 193
                                                    7.10.2 Power Market, The Czech Republic, Infrastructure, Transmission and Distribution Network
                                                             (ckm), 2005-2020 ................................................................................................................ 193
                                                    7.10.3 Power Market, The Czech Republic, Grid Interconnections ................................................. 195
                                                    7.10.4 Power Market, The Czech Republic, Future Development Plans ......................................... 195
                                              8 The Ukraine Power Market to 2020 ........................................................................................................ 196
                                                8.1      Power Market, The Ukraine, Overview ....................................................................................... 196
                                                    8.1.1    Power Market, The Ukraine, Macro-economic Scenario ..................................................... 196
                                                8.2      Power Market, The Ukraine, Import and Export Scenario........................................................... 198
                                                    8.2.1    Power Market, The Ukraine, Total Annual Imports (GWh), 2005-2010 .............................. 198
                                                    8.2.2    Power Market, The Ukraine, Total Annual Exports (GWh), 2005-2010 ............................... 198
                                                8.3      Power Market, The Ukraine, Demand and Consumption Scenario ............................................. 199
                                                8.4      Power Market, The Ukraine, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2005-2020 ........................... 200
                                                8.5      Power Market, The Ukraine, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 .......................... 202
                                                    8.5.1    Power Market, The Ukraine, Total Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 ......... 202
                                                    8.5.2    Power Market, The Ukraine, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011
                                                              ............................................................................................................................................ 204
                                                    8.5.3    Power Market, The Ukraine, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 .... 205
                                                    8.5.4    Power Market, The Ukraine, Cumulative Hydro Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020........ 209
                                                    8.5.5    Power Market, The Ukraine, Cumulative Nuclear Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 ..... 211


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                                                    8.5.6     Power Market, The Ukraine, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 213
                                                  8.6    Power Market, The Ukraine, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020............................... 217
                                                    8.6.1     Power Market, The Ukraine, Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 ......... 219
                                                    8.6.2     Power Market, The Ukraine, Annual Hydropower Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 ............. 221
                                                    8.6.3     Power Market, The Ukraine, Annual Nuclear Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020.......... 223
                                                    8.6.4     Power Market, The Ukraine, Annual Renewable Power Generation (GWh), 2005-2020 .... 225
                                                8.7      Power Market, The Ukraine, Top Active and Upcoming Projects ................................................ 227
                                                    8.7.1     Active Power Projects .......................................................................................................... 227
                                                    8.7.2     Upcoming Power Projects ................................................................................................... 231
                                                8.8      Power Market, The Ukraine, Competitive Landscape, 2011 ....................................................... 233
                                                8.9      Power Market, The Ukraine, Regulatory Structure ..................................................................... 234
                                                    8.9.1     Power Market, The Ukraine, Regulatory Structure Overview.............................................. 234
                                                    8.9.2     Power Market, The Ukraine, Law on Alternative Energy Sources ....................................... 234
                                                    8.9.3     Power Market, The Ukraine, FIT Program/Green Tariff Law ............................................... 235
                                                    8.9.4     The Ukraine Power Market, Nuclear Policy ......................................................................... 235
                                                8.10 The Ukraine Power Market, Infrastructure ................................................................................. 235
                                                    8.10.1 The Ukraine Power Market, Infrastructure Overview.......................................................... 235
                                                    8.10.2 Power Market, The Ukraine, Infrastructure, Transmission and Distribution Network (ckm),
                                                              2005-2020 ........................................................................................................................... 236
                                                    8.10.3 Grid Interconnections .......................................................................................................... 238
                                                    8.10.4 Future Development Plans .................................................................................................. 238
                                              9 Appendix ................................................................................................................................................. 239
                                                9.1      Market Definition ........................................................................................................................ 239
                                                    9.1.1     Power .................................................................................................................................. 239
                                                    9.1.2     Installed Capacity ................................................................................................................ 239
                                                    9.1.3     Active Installed Capacity ..................................................................................................... 239
                                                    9.1.4     Electricity Generation .......................................................................................................... 239
                                                    9.1.5     Thermal Power .................................................................................................................... 239
                                                    9.1.6     Hydropower......................................................................................................................... 239
                                                    9.1.7     Nuclear Power ..................................................................................................................... 239
                                                    9.1.8     Renewable Energy Resources .............................................................................................. 239
                                                    9.1.9     Generation Company .......................................................................................................... 239
                                                    9.1.10 Electricity Consumption ....................................................................................................... 239
                                                    9.1.11 Transmission Network ......................................................................................................... 239
                                                    9.1.12 Interconnector ..................................................................................................................... 239
                                                    9.1.13 Transmission and Distribution Loss ..................................................................................... 240
                                                9.2      About GBI Research ..................................................................................................................... 240
                                                9.3      Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. 240
                                                9.4      References ................................................................................................................................... 241
                                                9.5      Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 241
                                                    9.5.1     Coverage ............................................................................................................................. 241
                                                    9.5.2     Secondary Research ............................................................................................................ 241
                                                    9.5.3     Primary Research ................................................................................................................ 242
                                                    9.5.4     Expert Panel Validation ....................................................................................................... 242
                                                9.6      Contact Us ................................................................................................................................... 242
                                                9.7      Disclaimer .................................................................................................................................... 242




  © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied                                                                                        GBIPE0023MR / Published JUL 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                           Page 9
Table of Contents




                                              1.1      List of Tables
                                              Table 1:     Ease of Doing Business - Categories and Sub-categories.............................................................. 15
                                              Table 2:     Risk Categories for Business ......................................................................................................... 16
                                              Table 3:     Power Market, Top Eastern Europe Countries (%), Relative Scores, 2011 ................................... 18
                                              Table 4:     Power Market, Major Eastern European Countries, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-
                                                           2020.............................................................................................................................................. 22
                                              Table 5:     Power Market, Major Eastern European Countries, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of
                                                           Power Plant (%), 2011-2020 ......................................................................................................... 23
                                              Table 6:     Power Market, Major Eastern European Countries, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Country
                                                           (%), 2011....................................................................................................................................... 24
                                              Table 7:     Power Market, Major Eastern European Countries, Total Annual Power Generation and
                                                           Consumption (GWh), 2005-2020 .................................................................................................. 27
                                              Table 8:     Power Market, Russia, Geographic Features, 2011 ...................................................................... 28
                                              Table 9:     Power Market, Russia, Macro-economic Scenario in the Short Term, 2005-2016 ....................... 29
                                              Table 10:    Power Market, Russia, Total Annual Imports, 2005-2010 ............................................................ 30
                                              Table 11:    Power Market, Russia, Total Annual Exports, 2005-2010............................................................. 30
                                              Table 12:    Power Market, Russia, Split of Electricity Consumption by Sector (%), 2011 ............................... 31
                                              Table 13:    Power Market, Russia, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2005-2020...................................... 33
                                              Table 14:    Power Market, Russia, Total Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 ........................... 35
                                              Table 15:    Power Market, Russia, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 ............ 36
                                              Table 16:    Power Market, Russia, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 ...................... 38
                                              Table 17:    Power Market, Russia, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (MW), 2005-2020 . 40
                                              Table 18:    Power Market, Russia, Cumulative Hydro Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 .......................... 42
                                              Table 19:    Power Market, Russia, Cumulative Nuclear Installed Capacity (MW), 2005-2020 ....................... 44
                                              Table 20:    Power Market, Russia, Cumul
								
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