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Jan SSS - Minyanville.xls

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									                                                           Macke's Retail Roundup
                                                    Same Store Sales Comps for January 2006

 Company              Ticker   Estimate    Actual Over / Under
Abercrombie          ANF       15.4       33.0    17.60

Aeropostale          ARO       5.9        12.3    6.40


American Eagle       AEOS      6.7        11.3    4.60


Ann Taylor           ANN       2.7        10.9    8.20


Bebe Stores          BEBE      8.1        9.8     1.70

Big Lots             BLI       1.0        6.4     5.40
BJ's Wholesale       BJ        3.0        2.0     (1.00)
Bombay Co            BBA       (1.7)      6.0     7.70
Chicos FAS           CHS       10.1       14.6    4.50


Children's Place     PLCE      6.7        9.0     2.30

Christopher and Banks CBK      (4.3)      (3.0)   1.30
Claire's Stores      CLE       4.3        9.0     4.70
Costco               COST      6.6        9.0     2.40
CVS Corp             CVS       6.5        5.4     (1.10)
Dillard's            DDS       0.8        3.0     2.20

Dollar General       DG        (1.3)              1.30

Dress Barn           DBRN      5.0        16.0    11.00
Family Dollar        FDO       2.8        3.4     0.60


Federated            FD        1.1        1.0     (0.10)



Fred's               FRED      0.8        0.8     0.00
Gap                         GPS        (2.8)    1.0      3.80


Guess?                      GES        7.6      31.0     23.40


Gymboree                    GYMB       6.9      2.0      (4.90)


Hot Topic                   HOTT       (5.9)    (0.7)    5.20

JC Penny                    JCP        2.1      2.5      0.40
Jo-Ann Stores               JAS        (3.0)    (3.2)    (0.20)
Jos. A Banks                JOSB       6.4      20.4     14.00
Kohl's                      KSS        3.4      2.0      (1.40)
Limited                     LTD        0.1      0.0      (0.10)
Men's Warehouse             MW         3.5      3.0      (0.50)
Nordstrom                   JWN        4.7      6.0      1.30
Pacific Sunwear             PSUN       2.0      4.9      2.90

Pier 1 Imports              PIR        (1.4)    8.2      9.60


Ross Stores                 ROST       3.8      9.0      5.20

Saks                        SKS        3.0      4.0      1.00
Sharper Image               SHRP       (14.7)   (13.0)   1.70
Talbots                     TLB        0.6      0.8      0.20
Target                      TGT        4.7      5.2      0.50
TJX Cos                     TJX        2.9      5.0      2.10
Walgreen                    WAG        7.6      7.4      (0.20)
Wal-Mart                    WMT        4.5      4.7      0.20
Source: http://www.streetaccount.com
    Macke's Retail Roundup
Same Store Sales Comps for January 2006

                                                        Comments
        33%?! Thirty-Three Percent?! It's Abercrombie's forest; from a performance perspective the rest of
        these retailers are just squirrels looking for a nut.
        Stealing "Angry Teen" market share from Hot Topic with a controversial "Go Postale at your High
        School" promotion

        Good gains on top of 22% in 2005 and strong numbers in December… yet no EPS boost. Are they
        sandbagging their earnings report or "buying revenues" with deep markdowns? Stay tuned…
        Speaking of buying revenues, missing SSS in December then crushing the January numbers is a
        little like taking your super hot sister to the prom; it looks a lot better than the actual experience (I
        imagine).
        On an only slightly related point, it's nice to see that sordid tales of sex and drugs haven't hurt Kate
        Moss' career as a skanky/ sexy Super Model… if only there were a way to buy call options on such a
        thing.
        Bland Lots
        Despite a run of weak numbers BJs is optimistic about their groundbreaking "Redeem your Blue-Box
        credit here!" Valentine's Day partnership with Bling Retail Juggernaut Tiffany's.
        I doubt it was Ali but someone, somewhere has Bombaya'ed Bombay's momentum
        Frustrated by the media's fixation on Abercrombie, Chico is idly fondling a switchblade, musing on
        the idea that ANF wouldn't be so popular if someone cut up their pretty face

        guides f06 EPS to $2.57-$2.67, including $0.11 in rent expense, and $13.2M in option expense
        (44.96). Prior guidance given in December was $2.90-$3.00, excluding option expense.
        Shaking off a nightmare double date experience with Jo and Ann…
        Pondering a deal with Mattel where Claire's would melt down old Barbie Doll inventory to make
        necklaces.
        Opening up a huge box of Whoop Ass
        "Dealing with the traditional post-holiday drop off in sales of anti-depressants"
        Hopeful that future estimates will be increased all the way to a whole number.
        On a terrible sales run, took down numbers early in January and hasn't released figures yet today.
        On the upside, they've Ok'ed accelerated stock option vesting which should reassure the Street that
        plenty of equity supply will be available, should "demand" arise.
        "For ladies who find the lateral clearance of non-barn doors to be constraining"
        Canadien "Family Loonie" business finally taking hold.
        Raises Q4 EPS guidance to $2.60-2.65 vs prior $2.25-2.35 and Reuters consensus $2.40. New
        guidance excludes Lord & Taylor, which is now a discontinued operation. FD guides Feb and Q1
        comps to (0.5%)-(1.5%), consistent with 1/26 guidance. If I'm part of bloated middle management at
        a department store which raises EPS w/out ever beating sales estimates I'm keeping my resume'
        current.
        In contrast to Dillards, Fred is "just fine, thank you" with SSS estimates broken down basis-point
        levels of detail.
Guides f05 EPS to $1.22-1.25; cites better than expected operating performance and a one-time tax
benefit; may not be comparable to Reuters $1.15. "Hey, if Google fell 40pts for having a higher than
expected tax rate shouldn't we get at least half of that for this?"
I was watching one of those old Saturday Night Live's a couple weeks ago and had the chilling
thought that today's teenagers probably think the parody ad for "Bad Idea Jeans" is real.
Guides Q4 EPS $0.52-$0.54 vs. Reuters $0.52; FC $0.51. Prior guidance was $0.50-$0.52, as
given 1/5. Guides Q1 EPS to $0.21-$0.23, ex-options and f06 EPS $1.09-$1.13, ex-options.
Reuters is $0.24 and $1.18, respectively. First Call for f06 is $1.12.
"Typical… we finally beat estimates and all Macke can do is get in our face about still comping
negative. He has NO IDEA how hard it is to be Hot Topic in a world that worships Jessica
Simpson… we didn't ASK to be in the retail roundup! Just leave us alone!"
You're getting Sleeeeepy
Knew the Christopher and Banks thing would be a disaster the second Ann's mother set it up but
Ann was afraid to say anything. Jo is contemptuous.
expects f05 (Jan) EPS to be at least $2.39 vs. Reuters $2.28; First Call $2.23.
Didn't appreciate having Target's Mervyn's division to compare themselves to until Mervyn's was
gone; much the way Target feels about the Sears/ Kmart merger.
Flat and utterly bland. Let your mind run wild with your own snark here.
"Because casual Fridays are for the unemployed"
Nordies is the exception that proves the rule: "(other) department stores are dead"
Reaffirms Q4 EPS guidance of $0.62-0.63 vs Reuters $0.63.

Guides Feb. comps. to negative single-digits but Minyan Mike Santoli is still taking a deserved victory
lap for his televised Pier One call. "Enjoy it now, bub… you're thisclose to getting put on The List".
Beat Jan SSS, Beat December SSS and still warned for the quarter. "Give-it-away now" springs to
mind...
In the process of unwinding a series of horribly misguided roll-ups; second only to Federated in the
Investment Banking Industries "Retailer of the Year" poll.
"Let's concentrade on how we performed relative to estimates…"
Reaffirms Q4 EPS guidance $0.35-0.37 vs Reuters $0.36.
Giving complimentary copies of "WalMart: The High Cost of a Low Price" with every purchase over
$5.

Finally recovered from my favorable mention last August.
Doing massive numbers by pairing every new store opening with Door Busting Deals on tag-board,
sharpies and walking boots for the protestors gathered in the parking lot.
                                                           Macke's Retail Roundup
                                                   Same Store Sales Comps for December 2005

 Company              Ticker   Estimate    Actual Over / Under
Abercrombie          ANF       19.2       29.0    9.80
Aeropostale          ARO       3.0        11.4    8.40

American Eagle       AEOS      2.8        9.8     7.00


Ann Taylor           ANN       2.9        1.5     (1.40)
Bebe Stores          BEBE      2.9        1.1     (1.80)
Big Lots             BLI       1.3        2.3     1.00
BJ's Wholesale       BJ        2.8        1.4     (1.40)

Bombay Co            BBA       1.3        (3.5)   (4.80)

Chicos FAS           CHS       8.7        16.4    7.70
Children's Place     PLCE      6.6        11.0    4.40
Christopher and Banks CBK      1.5                (1.50)
Claire's Stores      CLE       4.4        4.0     (0.40)
Costco               COST      6.0        7.0     1.00
CVS Corp             CVS       7.3        7.3     0.00
Dillard's            DDS       0.5        1.0     0.50
Dollar General       DG        2.4        (2.8)   (5.20)
Dress Barn           DBRN      4.3        8.0     3.70
Family Dollar        FDO       2.9        2.3     (0.60)
Federated            FD        2.0        3.4     1.40

Fred's               FRED      1.6        1.9     0.30

Gap                  GPS       (3.7)      (9.0)   (5.30)
Guess?               GES       8.7        17.5    8.80
Gymboree             GYMB      6.6        16.0    9.40

Hot Topic            HOTT      (3.9)      (6.2)   (2.30)

JC Penny             JCP       2.6        2.2     (0.40)
Jo-Ann Stores        JAS       (1.0)      (0.5)   0.50
Jos. A Banks                JOSB       4.4      20.7     16.30
Kohl's                      KSS        5.5      4.6      (0.90)
Limited                     LTD        3.5      3.0      (0.50)
Lowes                       LOW        n/a      n/a      #VALUE!
Men's Warehouse             MW         3.6      8.1      4.50

Nordstrom                   JWN        3.5      7.7      4.20


Pacific Sunwear             PSUN       3.1      1.0      (2.10)

Pier 1 Imports              PIR        (4.6)    (4.8)    (0.20)
Ross Stores                 ROST       1.8      6.0      4.20
Saks                        SKS        1.1      2.4      1.30

Sharper Image               SHRP       (12.0)   (15.0)   (3.00)

Talbots                     TLB        1.3      1.1      (0.20)
Target                      TGT        4.5      4.7      0.20
TJX Cos                     TJX        1.6      6.0      4.40
Walgreen                    WAG        7.7      6.2      (1.50)

Wal-Mart                    WMT        3.1      2.2      (0.90)

Source: http://www.streetaccount.com
     Macke's Retail Roundup
Same Store Sales Comps for December 2005

                                                       Comments
         It's nice to see some good looking kids living up to large expectations, after watching USC fall short
         last night. ANF raises FY EPS to 3.67 - 3.72 vs. 3.44 - 3.49 expectations.
         Co raises expectations substantially, making this a higher quality sales beat than that of…

         …. These guys who re-confirmed existing EPS, more or less. AEOS was rumored to be hugely
         promotional during the season, making this number functionally "better than expectations"
         The type of numbers that remind you of the price you pay when you stay up late to watch football.
         So… very… tired (yet content in the righteous nature of the universe)
         Rethinking their "Don't Die Alone" line of New Years Eve party wear

         A disappointing, if not entirely unhappy, finish to the Holidays.
         Regardless of which Darren was playing the lead role at the moment, by the time Elizabeth
         Montgomery scrunched up her (perfect) nose and called in Dr. Bombay things were looking
         desperate in the Bewitched household. The same thing could be happening here.
         Chico hasn't had occasion to be discouraged by missing SSS
         Looking to tighten their return policy for parents rethinking just how "nice" their kids may or may not
         have been.


         My daugher is very big on the plastic necklace accessory. Limited data pool (n=1) but worth noting
         Becoming a bit more of a holiday chain.
         It's all about the drugs.
         Working hard to make no progress.

         Co takes EPS estimates below Street Range. Risking a humilating demotion to Dollar Captain.

         Within the range, more or less
         "Pleased" with Macy's and Bloomingdales. Department stores as a whole continue to go through life
         with the emotional balance of the characters in "Flatliners"
         Walmart's aborted comeback didn't even hurt the lesser discount chains for more than November.
         Sad.
         Here's what happens when you hold the line on promotions but don't have the goods people want:
         ugh.
         Paris Hilton's old label did well selling clothes for the post-Holiday Party Walk of Shame.

         HOTTs therapist says that the chains weak SSS behavior stems from the chain wanting to be loved
         for their own unique personality. The Street angrily responds, "Why can't you just be more like
         Abercrombie?"
         Takes up numbers despite light sales. Good promotional control.
At some point SSS that beat expectations by this much have diminishing returns, stock wise.
Controls, anyone?
The Great Pumpkin of retail turnaround efforts.
Insert your own snark here… yup, these results are just that uninspiring to me.

"… and (Billy's) soaking, soaking wet! It's raining men, hallaleulah… "
Returning to our Flatliners mental construct, Nordies is the Kevin Bacon character who, let's face it,
really didn't have the same type of "stuff" to deal with as, say, Julia Roberts'. Nordies still plugging
away, never all that "disturbed" to begin with.
HOTT's parents would settle for PSUN type of behavior "They're sort of out of it but at lest they aren't
angry"
Ok… so the wicker Christmas Tree idea fell short of becoming a national craze. Hey, at least they
tried.
A slightly irregular numbers butt kicking.


Mrs. Jeffmacke and I spent some time in the local Sharper Image last week. Plenty of elbow room
and deep (deeeeeep) discount toys for bored grown-ups. It's a long road back for these folks.

No longer concerned about a re-energized Walmart.
TJ's finding a bit more of their stride in December
Dead since the moment I wrote favorably about them.
The Ric Flair of Retail: Still able to put together an impressive show every once in a while (as WMT
did in November) but no longer able to amaze with any regularity. As Apollo said to Rocky, "it's a
shame we gotta get old".
                                                                     Macke's Retail Roundup
                                                                Same Store Sales Comps for November 2005

 Company                 Ticker   Estimate    Actual Over / Under

Abercrombie             ANF       21.6       23.0     1.40


Aeropostale             ARO       (2.0)      7.1      9.10


American Eagle          AEOS      10.9       1.7      (9.20)


Ann Taylor              ANN       4.0        12.9     8.90
Bebe Stores             BEBE      4.2        4.2      0.00
Big Lots                BLI       (0.2)      0.7      0.90
BJ's Wholesale          BJ        4.1        1.8      (2.30)
Bombay Co               BBA       1.7        (12.4)   (14.10)
Chicos FAS              CHS       11.4       11.8     0.40
Children's Place        PLCE      6.7        12.0     5.30
Christopher and Banks   CBK       0.8        (3.0)    (3.80)
Claire's Stores         CLE       5.4        5.0      (0.40)

Costco                  COST      7.3        6.0      (1.30)

CVS Corp                CVS       7.0                 (7.00)
Dillard's               DDS       1.6        1.0      (0.60)
Dollar General          DG        0.9        (0.2)    (1.10)
Dress Barn              DBRN      5.0        10.0     5.00
Family Dollar           FDO       2.7        3.4      0.70
Federated               FD        1.5        (3.4)    (4.90)

Fred's                  FRED      1.4        4.5      3.10
Gap                     GPS       (4.6)      (4.0)    0.60
Guess?                  GES       10.0       15.8     5.80

Gymboree                GYMB      9.5        22.0     12.50

Hot Topic               HOTT      (4.1)      0.0      4.10
JC Penny                JCP       2.0        3.6      1.60
Jo-Ann Stores           JAS       0.3        (6.1)    (6.40)
Jos. A Banks            JOSB      7.0        3.8      (3.20)
Kohl's                      KSS        5.0      (0.1)    (5.10)

Limited                     LTD        1.7      5.0      3.30
Lowes                       LOW                          0.00
Men's Warehouse             MW         4.2      5.8      1.60
Neiman-Marcus               NMG.A               4.0      4.00
Nordstrom                   JWN        4.8      2.8      (2.00)
Pacific Sunwear             PSUN       5.3      3.0      (2.30)
Pier 1 Imports              PIR        0.2      1.9      1.70
Ross Stores                 ROST       4.2      5.0      0.80
Saks                        SKS        2.8      0.1      (2.70)
Sharper Image               SHRP       (13.8)   (18.0)   (4.20)
Talbots                     TLB        0.1      3.3      3.20
Target                      TGT        3.0      2.6      (0.40)

TJX Cos                     TJX        0.1      (1.0)    (1.10)
Walgreen                    WAG        5.4               (5.40)

Wal-Mart                    WMT        4.3      4.3      0.00

Source: http://www.streetaccount.com
     Macke's Retail Roundup
Same Store Sales Comps for November 2005

                                                            Comments
    The numbers are great for ANF but the expectations have been raised (did I actually hear CNBC refer to a
    "whisper number" for ANF?). On a day when it looks like ANF is a performance outlier, Abercrombie is your
    specialty retail Tell DuJour
    "You think *we* missed? You think *we* stink? Look at American Eagle…. Just look at them! We think *you*
    stink, consumer!"
    You can love your country. You can love specialty retailers. What you *can't* do, ever, is fall in love with a retail
    specialty stock. Not even if it's named after your country. AEOS had been averaging mid-teen SSS growth for
    '05. This is a really, really bad time of the year to lose momentum.
    The Ying to AEOS' terrible Yang. Great month for ANN but skepticism remains; "I'm still changing my maiden
    name to Coldwater Creek" says Mrs. Jeffmacke (formerly Anne Taylor)
    "In line and almost totally flat… just like our target customers!"
    They didn't beat by Lots, big or small.
    Always a tough line of business during this, the "full price = love" season
    It doesn't have to be Ali… in fact, I don't care who it is… just somebody, please "Bomba Ya" Bombay
    Good results largely in-line with expectations. The back up tell DuJour for "Good results on a bad day"
    "Rent a nice kid for Christmas" promotion doing well.
    Remember when these guys were the hottest thing since sliced bread? Neither do they.
    Cheap. Plastic. "Fine".
    Misses and blames the US dollar. I suppose it's a more creative excuse than blaming the weather. Still not a
    "good" excuse, and the stock should get mauled, but around here we give points for making wildly implausable
    excuses with a straight face.
    People may like drugs but they don't like companies that report their results too late for publication
    As of today, the great 2005 Department Store Revival is dead.
    "Strong sales in snacks, pet supplies and paper products". Translating from Retailese: "Our average margin on
    goods sold was zero ("nuttin", "bupkiss")
    Nightly seminars on animal husbandry with flair doing well
    a "Phew" of a SSS number. As in "Phew, we just made it"
    I'll have to double check this fact but, I believe, RH Macy himself was the only person to ever make money
    owning the Macy's chain and he's been dead for 120 years.
    The discounters seem to be coming in OK… which would have been a "Buy the News" item a month ago. After
    the November discounter rally (ex Target), these figures may not be good enough
    Dead until further notice.
    Flame Retardant Driving Pants doing well in the Guess homeland.

    Call me a Crusty Old Soul Trapped in a Youthful Exterior (or "Herb" for short) but there is something deeply
    wrong with providing a service where you can have "Uppity Kids Spanked Guilt Free!"; even if it does drive SSS
    "Is there anything Lamer than the Holiday Season?" theme is producing sluggish results
    "Boring? Yeah, well at least we weren't Kohls"
    After a brief reconciliation, Jo has broken a bottle on the edge of the board room table, threatening to cut up Ann's
    "pretty face"
    Just Not Good
In a topsy-turvy, mixed up world the reliability with which Kohl's Turnaround disappoints investors is comforting, in
a way.
First positive comps in 4 months. It's a nice time to get relatively hot but it would be nicer still, for LTD longs, if
"hot" meant better than mid-single digits

Great. Now the image of Meehan doing his Flashdance-Inspired rendition of "It's Raining Men" will be in my head
all day

Shoot the Piano Player.
"Dude, we TOTALLY spaced on Christmas. Woa…. That's intense"
Wouldn't a claymation special on the traditional holiday monkey knife fights help these guys? Sharper Image will
be looking for another opponent in our proposed PPV ThunderDome retail fight to the death
Ross plugging away with good comps, under the radar, all year.

"We thought guiding down to negative 13% would be enough. We really did. Hey, do you guys know anyone
who wants a Ozone-Spewing air filter? How about a Razor Scooter? Anyone?"
Yawn.
Had already taken down expectations. Remains optimistic and expects to "take share" for the holidays. The
Game (in this case a fight to the death with WalMart) is afoot.
I almost feel bad for cos who come in flat this time of year. I mean, wouldn't have rather failed gloriously? Too
much work to just do "the same as last year".

"Prices low enough for the jobless citizens of the communities we have destroyed to soothe themselves by
suckling at the sweet American teet of consumerism. Get a discount when you sign up for a Walmart credit
card!"
                                                               Macke's Retail Roundup
                                                       Sam e Store Sal es Com ps for October 2005
           Ticker     Estimate
                     Company Actual Over / Under                                                                 Comments
Aberc    ANF         15.6      31.0  15.40       "Can you PLEASE stop killing our stock now? PLEASE??!!!"
Aerop    ARO         (2.7)     (2.5) 0.20        Preannounces an inline quarter of 46-cents. So… things are "not great" but at least "sort of in control"
Ameri                                            These colors don't run, bub. Co guides to 45 or 46 cents for Q3, up from prior 43 or 44. You tell those Evil Axis fellas to keep on
         AEOS        10.5      17.3  6.80
can                                              mosyin' along now, lest they be lookin' for a tall glass of Whoop Ass.
Eagle
Ann
         ANN         (1.1)        1.2      2.30           It's going to take more than one month to assuage my wife, the former Miss Anne Taylor. "Why should I change my name?" she asks
Taylor
                                                          "It was a perfectly fine name until these no talent ass-clowns lost the feel for their customer base and became a specialty also-ran."
Bebe                                                      Kate Moss is on the cover of Vanity Fair which asks the question: "Can Kate come back?". Yeah… nothing hurts a super model like
         BEBE        3.0          2.1      (0.90)
Stores                                                    rumors of drugs and sex.
Big                                                       Co mentions lower customer count but says those shoppers are showing "larger baskets". Presumably unnusually large shoes, as
         BLI         1.5          4.8      3.30
Lots                                                      well.
BJ's                                                      May want to re-think their "You get what you pay for." promotion; hires an exec from Blockbuster as new CIO… Not the first place I
         BJ          5.2          2.9      (2.30)
Whole                                                     would have looked (though they guy may be great, if he got out of BBI before infection).
sale
Bomb     BBA         (1.4)        0.6      2.00           Back by special request: "Alllliii, Bomb(eye)ay… Allli, Bomb(eye)a….!"
Chico                                                     Chico's makes it a clean sweep for the quarter, beating estimates by more than a full touchdown. And, of course, remaining un-
         CHS         10.3         17.9     7.60
s FAS                                                     discouraged.
Childr                                                    Co guides up for the quarter, citing the success of a new "Are you really looking to save money on your children, you inhuman
         PLCE        3.1          13.0     9.90
en's                                                      bastard?" promotion leading to better high-end sales
Place
Christ                                                    Welcome to Macke's Retail Round-Up, Christopher. Around here negative comps are a miss, even if you beat estimates. Sorry,
         CBK         (2.4)        (2.0)    0.40
opher                                                     dude… and, again, welcome!
and
Claire   CLE         5.4          9.0      3.60           Plastic is timeless.

Costc
         COST        7.4          10.0     2.60
o                                                         Gas responsible for 2% of this beat; Cost cites success of "Buy Gas, get crate of Ramen Noodles for $4" promotion
CVS      CVS         6.1          5.6      (0.50)         The bookies win as 50 basis points doesn't even cover the juice.
Dillar                                                    The Black Knight of Retail! Entirely unaware that department stores are dead. 22 stores effected by hurricanes in October.
         DDS         0.2          8.0      7.80
d's                                                       Impressive performance, overall.
Dollar                                                    Company "continues to assess the hurricane damage". So, not only are they blaming the weather, they are slow about it. It's the 4th
         DG          2.4          0.4      (2.00)
Gener                                                     Q, dudes… time to make the doughnuts.
al
Dress    DBRN        2.0          10.0     8.00           Great numbers for newcomer Dress Barn. Pier-One… you better step it up, fella.
Family   FDO         2.1          3.1      1.00           Fido is no dog! The co beats SSS est for all three months, albeit not by much.
Feder                                                     Blaming it on the rain which, frankly, is making them look fairly silly in light of Dillards. "God made the hurricanes, you guys decided
         FD          0.9          (0.7)    (1.60)
ated                                                      to do those buy-outs by yourselves."
Fred's   FRED        (0.2)        2.5      2.70           The discounters are looking fairly strong this month… Hmmmm….
                                                          Co is putting their growth hopes in a new division targeting women over 35. Here's to you, Mrs. Robinson. I hope you buy a lot of
Gap      GPS         (5.4)        (5.0)    0.40
                                                          khaki.

Guess                                                     Co reports 52 cents vs. 37cent estimates. By way of press release says "We are licking our finger and saucily placing it on our
         GES         6.8          12.3     5.50
?                                                         backside… Hissssssssssssssss… we are hot"
Gymb                                                      New co-branding deal with BALCO paying off already! 10-year-old and under division bench press record of 375lbs raising some
         GYMB        5.4          18.0     12.60
oree                                                      eyebrows.


Hot                                                       Co guides to low end of low-ball guidance range. I was long HOTT this Spring with the logic that it couldn't get any worse… "Hey"
         HOTT        (4.5)        (5.7)    (1.20)
Topic                                                                                                                                              e         ph'
                                                          I mulled whist sniffing the rose of ill-fated romance "I can tell that this stock has som real 'oom under that scabby, tattooed, twice-
                                                          convicted exterior" . Let this be a lesson on matters of both heart and wallet.
JC       JCP         1.5          2.4      0.90           This is sort of what a department store turnaround looks like. Wow… 2.4%. Nice. *yawn.
Jo-                                                       Jo & Ann are back in stride after some hurt feelings in recent months. Nothing says "I still love you" like a surprise positive SSS
         JAS         (0.5)        3.4      3.90
Ann                                                       number.
Stores
Jos. A                                                    Huge numbers for a newcomer name to Macke's Retail Round-up. Hott Topic snarling that the new kids are "Lame kiss-ups" just
         JOSB        8.5          16.2     7.70
Banks                                                     like everyone else.
Kohl's   KSS         4.0          6.2      2.20           Rumored to be hiring Red Hot Chilli Peppers for Holiday party ("Suck m Kiss" ) y
Limite   LTD         (3.3)        (4.0)    (0.70)         Remember when the Victoria's Secret web-cast was a big deal? Now it's not.
Lowes    LOW                               0.00
Men's    MW          2.8          6.7      3.90           "Hurricanes? Baby, as far as we're concerned it's only raining men! Wait… let us rephrase that…"
Neima    NMG.A       0.0                   0.00
Nords    JWN         3.9          6.4      2.50           Almost looks like a typo when you plug that number in for a department store. That'll do, Nordie… that'll do.
Pacifi                                                    Customer surveys indicate that PSUN customers are "bummed out and stuff by wars" but, happily for PSUN, are unaware of any
         PSUN        4.6          7.9      3.30
c                                                         current military activities affecting the country.
Sunwe
Pier 1
Import   PIR         (14.0)       (10.4)   3.60           When asked if they were excited about beating estimates for a change, Pier 1 motioned you closer, it's voice too weak to carry. You
s                                                         put your ear by it's mouth and a reedy voice that seems to house all the agony in the world says "Please… kill…. Us."

Ross                                                                                 ile,
                                                          Misses by well over a m takes EPS down to 25-26cents vs. 29c est and reports higher-than-expected inventory shortages. This
         ROST        4.3          (7.0)    (11.30)
Stores                                                                                                    e
                                                          is our Triple Crown of Crap stock watch nam of the day
Saks     SKS         1.4          4.6      3.20           Another department store making Federated look silly.
Sharp                                                     Free tip to Sharper Image Mgmt: Lower the SSS guidance for November to "0%"… you'll beat the estimates if you sell just one fake
         SHRP        (11.3)       (18.0)   (6.70)
er                                                        air filter!
Image
Talbot                                                    I'm still not counting this as a SSS "Beat" (it's negative) but the co also guides higher for the quarter, boosting the range to 35-36
         TLB         (1.6)        (0.3)    1.30
s                                                         cents vs. prior 30-34.
Targe    TGT         4.4          5.7      1.30           Target continues to chug away.
TJX      TJX         1.2          (2.0)    (3.20)         Na-na-na-na Na-na-na-na TJ-Missed. Again. Co earns 34 cents vs. Street estimates for 37.
Walgr                                                     Missed on front end (read: non-pharmacy) sales. Looks as though I'm the only one who really *needed* an alarm clock that beams the
         WAG         7.5          6.5      (1.00)
een                                                       time on the ceiling.
Wal-
         WMT         3.4          4.3      0.90           Not to be all Mr. Negative Guy or anything but WalMart started promoting with Christmas Aggression in early October (as opposed
Mart
                                                          to after Black Friday last year). It's too early to suggest a good Christmas for all based on WMT's eeking out a good number.
Source: http://w w w .streetaccount.com
                                                       Macke's Retail Roundup
                                                Sam e Store Sal es Com ps for Septem ber 2005
                      Estimate
             Ticker Company           Actual        Over / Under                                                   Comments
Abercro                                                                       py
                                                                   "Buy Tram Low-Ride Pants; get Free lower-back Tattoo" great back-to-school promo. Your
mbie         ANF          16.4            21.0          4.60       specialty retail Stock of the Day
Aeropos                                                            French-sounding name inspired the chain to promote undersized white t-shirts with pre-Yellow Stained
tale        ARO            0.7        (4.2)           (4.90)       Armpits & the stench of stale smoke
America     AEOS          10.7        13.0             2.30        "U-S-A…. U-S-A". Surprise winner for the month… back on track?
Ann                                                                After a lousy 04 and 05 for ANN, Mrs. Jeffmacke (formerly "Anne Taylor") now seeking to change her
Taylor      ANN            1.6        (2.7)           (4.30)       maiden name
Bebe        BEBE          12.3        12.3             0.00        Facing sharp mark-downs on their line of "Kate Moss Party Wear", spoon necklaces
                                                                   Closing 170 of their stores "to improve profits"; Street may have been hoping for a plan to close "all of
Big Lots     BLI           0.4         2.9             2.50        'em", judging by the stock action lately
BJ's          BJ           4.8         3.8            (1.00)       Meehan still insisting on paying full-retail
Bombay       BBA           3.6        (1.6)           (5.20)       Not even Dr. Bombay, Samantha's worlock doctor in Bewitched, could save these guys.
Chicos
Childre      CHS          14.7        15.8             1.10        For the 9th time in the last 10 months, Chico is not, in fact, discouraged.
n's
Place       PLCE           2.3            2.0         (0.30)       Now that I have Children (plural), I'm amazed that anyone has the energy to shop at this place.
Claire's     CLE           5.4            8.0          2.60        Rising price of plastics whacking the cheap jewelry sector? No way, baby!

                                                                   Little discussed fact about announcements like Cost's "we plan to buy back 1B in stock!": it's not
Costco      COST           6.7            11.0         4.30        actually a commitment to buy ANY shares. Good sales, whining about consumers
CVS
Corp         CVS           6.2            6.0         (0.20)       ".2% of our customers opted to take naps, vs. our fine, American, Mood-'stabilizing' drugs"
Dillard'     DDS          (1.7)                        1.70
Dollar       DG            1.2            2.5          1.30        36 stores still closed after Katrina
Family                                                             See's October sales up 1-3%. Check the coverage of their earnings release from earlier this week to
Dollar       FDO           1.3            2.6          1.30        see why this "beat" won't much matter for the stock

                                                                   Don't believe the sales beat; FD announcing disappointing results for Macy's and Bloomie's, citing:
Federat                                                            hurricanes, reduced consumer spending, higher prices and, by implication, the "super stupid idea that
ed            FD           0.6            1.3          0.70        we could make more money by aggregating all the department store chains in America"
                                                                   Taking a folksy "Wait and see" attitude towards near-term sales trend. Which retail stocks should we
Fred's      FRED          (2.0)       (1.4)            0.60        buy while we're waiting, Fred?
Gap          GPS          (7.2)       (6.0)            1.20        Co is "Very disappointed", despite beat. Not "surprised" but disappointed.
                                                                   Paris Hilton's stint as a Guess? Girl has ended before it even seemed to begin. "Ummm… you can
Guess?       GES           3.1            14.2         11.10       keep the pants, Paris"
Gymbor      GYMB           0.4            10.0          9.60       "Upgrade to a Smarter Kid this School Year" is irresistible to parents
Hot                                                                This settles it, no more 8x10 glossy autographing sessions at these stores for me until they stop
Topic       HOTT          (6.4)       (5.6)            0.80        sucking like an Electrolux every month
JC                                                                 Boosts numbers for 3rd & 4th Q. Vows to "Dance on the fresh earth of Federated's over-levered
Penny        JCP           1.5            1.4         (0.10)       grave!"
Jo-Ann
Stores       JAS          (1.0)           0.2          1.20        The infighting is getting ugly… Ann now blaming Jo's "Back to School Butchwear" idea for some sales
                                                                   Finding the world to be a more angry place w/out Target corp's Mervyn's division to kick around
Kohl's       KSS           2.4        (0.2)           (2.60)       anymore
Limited      LTD          (2.0)       (2.0)            0.00        Limited at best.
Men's        MW            5.0         5.2             0.20        Not exactly "missing" casual Friday's
Neiman-     NMG.A          6.0         9.6             3.60                                  ing
                                                                   "Just keep the sales com until the deal with the buyout group closes"
Nordstr
Pacific      JWN           4.4         4.1            (0.30)       In retrospect Nordies didn't need to run chain-wide "Shoot the Piano Player" raffles
Sunwea
r           PSUN           1.3          5.3            4.00        Plans to use all 4% of the sales beat to hire Van Halen for the most "Bitchin' birthday party EVER!"
Pier 1       PIR         (11.5)       (10.6)           0.90        Consider this chain before you make up your mind about Federal euthanasia
Rite Aid     RAD           0.8          1.1            0.30        More "Bland" than "RAD"
Ross        ROST           6.1          9.0            2.90        Off-price is on-the-money in a weaker economy
Saks
Sears,       SKS           1.7          3.2            1.50        Back on track, in a department-store-esque, low single digit way
Roebuc
k           SHLD           0.0            0.0          0.00                                                                                            e
                                                                   "Seriously… NO ONE wants to buy a bunch of Sears locations? We'll throw in som tools"
Sharper                                                            Back to that euthanasia idea… couldn't we have Pier 1 and Sharper Image fight to the death on pay-per-
Image       SHRP          (7.5)       (21.0)          (13.50)      view or something?
Stage
Stores      STGS           0.7        (2.6)           (3.30)       After setting the stage for downgrades last month, the chain is doing an encore in September
Stein
Mart        SMRT           2.2        (3.9)           (6.10)       Missing a winning PR opp by not sending old Stein inventory down to help bail out the south
Talbots      TLB           2.3        (5.1)           (7.40)       If ANF is your specialty upside Tell of the Day, these guys are your disaster to watch
                                                                   Presumably finds Wal-Marts belated, strange move into fashion "adorable" in a Crocodile Dundee,
Target       TGT           4.9            5.6          0.70        Fish-out-of-Water kind of way
TJX                                                                Cuts estimates, borrows from Jimmy Carter's "Malaise" speech by way of explanation. ("Psst… it
Cos          TJX           1.7            0.0         (1.70)                            m
                                                                   didn't work for Jim y")
Walgre                                                             After I called their top last summer, the company requests that I say nothing positive about them under
en           WAG           6.6            7.7          1.10        any circumstances. You got it.
Wal-                                                               Didn't take EPS estimates down, as was expected. Another potential "Tell" and rumor has it that some
Mart         WMT           3.8            3.8          0.00        pundits have gone positive.
Source: http://w w w .streetaccount.com
                                                      Macke's Retail Roundup
                                                Sam e Store Sal es Com ps for A u gu st 2005
                      Estimate
             Ticker Company           Actual       Over / Under                                                   Comments
Abercro      ANF       18.6           24.0             5.40       Back to rocking, on the sales front. The stock fell 25% in August.
Aeropos      ARO        0.1            1.3            1.20        Amazing how hard a co can work to achieve flat sales.
America     AEOS       11.9           11.8           (0.10)       Seems unpatriotic to hassle AEOS about a tenth of a percent.
Ann          ANN        1.1            3.7            2.60        Move along… nothing to see here.
Bebe        BEBE       21.4           16.9           (4.50)       Big Miss and the stock is getting stomped, premarket. Co. reaffirms EPS estimates.
Big Lots      BLI       0.0            0.6            0.60        Is the high price of gas causing shoppers to gravitate towards Medium and Small Lots?
BJ's          BJ        4.7            5.6            0.90        Meehan still unable to say the name of BJ's w/out giggling uncontrollably
Bombay       BBA        4.7           11.0            6.30        Ali-Bomb(I)ay… Ali Bomb(I)ay
Chicos       CHS       12.3           14.0            1.70        Insert your own reference to "Chico and the Man" here
Childre     PLCE        2.6            4.0            1.40
Claire's     CLE        5.1           10.0            4.90        "cheap and plastic" still a winning combination in certain sets.
Costco      COST        7.8            9.0            1.20        Like Home Depot and Lowes, a theoretical "winner" from Katrina
CVS          CVS        6.0            6.2            0.20        People like Drugs.
Dillard'     DDS        0.6            2.0            1.40        Anything on the happy side of negative is good for department stores.
Dollar       DG         0.8            0.9            0.10        Not too long ago these guys were rocking like Elvis.
Family       FDO       (0.5)           1.8            2.30        Ibid. Are DG and FDO engaged in mutual destruction?
Federat
ed           FD            2.0         1.1           (0.90)       "These synergies will allow us to achieve as much as 1% growth in our same store sales."
Fred's      FRED          (4.0)       (3.8)           0.20        Where I come from we don't call "better than expected but still negative" a Beat.
                                                                  From the sounds of the accompanying press release, the Gap has exactly nothing ("bupkiss") working
Gap          GPS          (4.6)       (9.0)          (4.40)       right now. Except, of course, the pending buyout.
Guess?       GES           5.9         6.4            0.50
Gymbor      GYMB           4.1        (1.0)          (5.10)       "Get your kid's lard-ass moving" August promotion poorly received.
Hot                                                               I'm still a little bitter about my experience w/ this stock. Not so much so that I'm a target customer but
Topic       HOTT          (7.6)       (7.1)           0.50        angry, nonetheless.
JC                                                                The mid-line department store turnaround seems to be running out of "gas". Draw your own societal
Penny        JCP           2.7         2.8            0.10        conclusions.
Jo-Ann       JAS           4.0        (2.4)          (6.40)       Jo blaming Ann's slothenly work habits and poor grooming for the miss.
Kohl's       KSS           3.7         4.6            0.90        The turnaround remains Over until further notice.
Limited      LTD          (1.1)       (3.0)          (1.90)       Limited again.
May          MAY          (2.4)       (2.8)          (0.40)       MAY-day… MAY-day…
Men's        MW            5.8         8.5            2.70        All Meehan jokes aside, MW has been putting up MONSTER numbers in '05
Neiman-     NMG.A          5.7         8.2            2.50        Rocking on the high-end or a Neiman-Marcus specific phenomenon?
Nordstr      JWN           4.3         8.0            3.70        Here's one vote for "rocking on the high-end"
Pacific     PSUN           3.6         2.6           (1.00)       Dude… bummer.
Pier 1                                                            If we aren't going to give Fred's credit for a beat we sure aren't going to had out the laurels to the
Imports      PIR         (14.2)       (12.4)          1.80        House of Outbreak Monkeys
Rite Aid     RAD           0.2          0.0          (0.20)
Ross        ROST          10.6         13.0           2.40        Slightly irregular, slightly rocking.
Saks         SKS           1.6         (0.3)         (1.90)       As a chain, deeply confused about claims that "the high end is rocking"
Sears,      SHLD           0.0          0.0           0.00        "Psssst… anyone wanna buy about 150 lousy Sears buildings?"
Sharper                                                           Diversifying from Ozone Spewing air-filters to nose hair trimmers which give occasional lobotomies.
Image       SHRP          (5.2)       (14.0)         (8.80)       "The mental numbness means its working!"
Stage       STGS           1.2          1.5           0.30        Trying to Stage a comeback.
Stein       SMRT           4.0          5.3           1.30        Beer is Good.

                                                                  Talbots claiming that they came in "in-line with company estimates". Well, I guess we just expected a
Talbots      TLB           3.4            2.3        (1.10)       little more of Talbots than Talbots expected from themeselves, didn't we?
Target       TGT           5.4            6.3         0.90        Taking the steel-toed boots to Wal-Mart.
TJX          TJX           1.7            2.0         0.30        TJ-Blah
Walgre
en           WAG           8.3            0.0        (8.30)       WAG is reporting 74 stores closed in Miss and La. Figures to skew their numbers for quite a while
Wal-                                                              Creating a one-stop shopping experience for people who want to pick up a 60" TV and some frozen
Mart         WMT           3.4            3.3        (0.10)       carrots
Source: http://w w w .streetaccount.com

								
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