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EU beef and veal market A brief overview and some statistical data_5_ - PowerPoint - PowerPoint Powered By Docstoc
					group housing of pregnant sows as applicable from 1 January 2013




                           "Single CMO" Management Committee
                                        23 June 2011
                     Development of the EU
                      Pig Carcasses price

           175
€/100 kg




           155



           135



           115
                 1   4    7   10   13   16   19   22 25   28   31   34 37 40 43 46 49 52
                         5 yr Avg (06-10)           2008            2009    2010           2011

                 DG AGRI C4                                                 23 June 2011    2
                                               Percentual change in Pig prices May 2011
                          25%
                                   -1 year
                                   - 1 month
                          20%
Difference in €uro in %




                          15%

                          10%

                          5%

                          0%

                          -5%
                                BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK   EU

                                  DG AGRI C4                                                        23 June 2011        3
                         Private Storage

                     prevision for de-stocking


Total                        May       June        July      August
141 218 tons               28 175    52 873     24 873       35 297

                                ~ 1 … 3% of monthly slaughter




        DG AGRI C4                                     23 June 2011   4
                                                            Development of the EU
                                                                 Piglet price
           45




           35
€/ piece




           25
                1     4    7     10   13   16     19   22   25    28    31   34   37   40    43   46   49   52

            5 yr avg (06 - 10)                  2008             2009             2010             2011
                    DG AGRI C4                                                              23 June 2011    5
                                    Change in Pig slaughter Jan - April 2011/2010
                                                  Avg increase 1,6% re
                                  April slaughter shows smaller increase as expected.
              be bg cz dk de ee ie       gr es   fr   it cy lv   lt   lu hu mt nl   at pl   pt ro si sk   fi   se uk   EU
       25%

       20%

       15%

       10%

        5%
in %




        0%

       -5%

       -10%      Jan = +1,3%
                 Feb = +5,6%
       -15%      Mrz = -0,6%
                 Apr = +0,5
       -20%      forec. (+2,4%)
                                    BG & RO: Increase, or more offical and less non official slaughter?
       -25%

                    DG AGRI C4                                                                      23 June 2011        6
                                   Relation between monthly pig slaughterings and weekly pig
                                                   carcass prices 2009 - 2011                             175.00

                      2 100
                                                                                                          165.00


                      1 900                                                                               155.00
Slaughter in 1000 T




                                                                                                          145.00




                                                                                                                       Euro/ 100kg
                      1 700


                                                                                                          135.00
                      1 500
                                                                                                          125.00

                      1 300   NB: Monthly Slaughter
                              "official" slaughter only                                                   115.00


                      1 100                                                                               105.00

Source:            2009                                        2010                    2011
EU Commission DG AGRI                                     (expected) Slaughter EU 27              Price

                                  DG AGRI C4                                                  23 June 2011         7
                                                                 Price of Basic Ingredients
               350
                                                                         2008 - 2011

               300

                                                                       Soft Wheat (EU)
               250                                                     Barley (EU)
Euro / tonne




                                                                       Maïs (EU)
                                                                       Soja (CAF)
                                                                       Hulls (EU)
               200                                                     Manioc (CAF)
                                                                       C.G.F. (CAF)

               150


               100


                50
                 Jan 08   April   Juil   Oct   Jan 09   April   Juil       Oct     Jan 10   April   Juil   Oct   Jan-11   April       Juil

                           DG AGRI C4                                                                      23 June 2011           8
                               Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel
                                      (nearby = 2010 & 2011)
                                                                                                                   1 350




                                                                                                                   1 200



                                                                                               Delivery:
                                                                                                                   1 050

                                                                                                    01 Nearby
                                                                                                    2011 05 May
                                                                                                    2011 07 Jul    900
                                                                                                    2011 11 Nov
                                                                                                    2012 01 Jan

                                                                                                                   750
| Jan | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun |

             DG AGRI C4                                                                    23 June 2011            9
                                            Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext)
                                                   (Nearby = 2010 & 2011)
                            01 Nearby
                            2011 May
                            2011 Jul
             200            2011 Nov
                            2012 Jan

             170
€uro/ Tonn




             140



             110



              80
                   | Jan | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June |


                           DG AGRI C4                                                                      23 June 2011          10
                                       Futures for Maize EU (Euronext)
                                                         (Nearby = 2010 - 2011)
         230


         210


         190
€/Tonn




                                                                                                                  Delivery:
         170


         150                                                                                                          01 Nearby

                                                                                                                      2011 Aug
         130                                                                                                          2011 Nov

                                                                                                                      2012 Jan
         110
               | Jan | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun |

                         DG AGRI C4                                                                  23 June 2011         11
    800                           TOEPFER weekly Cereal and Substitute prices 2008 - 2011

    700
                                                                           week 24 of 2011
    600                                                                   -77% compared to
                                                                            week 1 of 2008

    500
US$/T




    400


    300


    200


        100


         0
              1   7   13   19 25 31    37 43 49 2   8   14 20 26 32 38 44 50 4   10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 6   12 18 24 30 36 42
                                      FREIGHT Panamax                 soja beans USA                  soja pellets ARG
                                      Citrus p.                       Palm pitkernels                 EU maïs in US$
                                      C.G.F.
                      DG AGRI C4                                                                    23 June 2011         12
                                                            Comparisson betw een Compoundfeed
                                                               for Pigs and a Cereal-Feedmix
                                        margin pig/ comp. Feed (4.4 > 4.0)
                                        Pig carcase
                                        Avg Margin 2006 - 2010 (43.83€/100kg)                                                             300
                            300         Cereal-mix
                                        Compound feed
                                                                                                                                          250




                                                                                                                                                 €uro/ T (cerealmix & Comp. feed)
                            250
                                                                                                                                          200
Euro/ 100kg (pig carcase)




                            200
                                                                                                                                          150


                            150                                                                                                           100


                                                                                                                                          50
                            100

                                                                                                                                          0

                            50
                                                                                                                                          -50


                             0                                                                                                            -100
                                  |   2005     |     2006      |    2007        |   2008    |    2009      |    2010     |    2011    |

                                  NB: June - december estimations          Pigprice: June - December forecast

                                         DG AGRI C4                                                                    23 June 2011       13
            Weekly average Pigprices 2007 - 2010                        in Euro/ 100kg carcase
            EU, Brazil and the US
175.0

155.0

135.0

115.0

95.0

75.0

55.0
        |          2008           |          2009            |          2010            |            2011         |

                                                                            weeks
   EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat                                             EU
   US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lb                                    US
   BR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)                                Braz. avg
   CDN= Quebeck index 100 (agr.gc.ca)                                                                CDN Quebec

               DG AGRI C4                                                                   23 June 2011    14
              195                 Pigprices in US and EU and forecasts
                                      EU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat
                                          US Forecast: Chicago Mercantile Exchange


              170
€uro/ 100kg




              145




              120




              95                                                                         EU
                                                                                         US


              70
                    |        08       |          09           |           10             |             11        |

                        DG AGRI C4                                                           23 June 2011   15
                                                                      1.7

                     Weekly exchange rate US dollar
                                   2007 - 2011                        1.6
                                1 €uro = ………US$

                                                                      1.5


                                                                      1.4


                                                                      1.3


                                                                      1.2


                                                                      1.1


                                                                      1
|   08           |   09     |       10        |       11         |
    DG AGRI C4                                    23 June 2011   16
             Trade in Pigmeat
DG AGRI C4                      23 June 2011   17
                                                                                   EU


                                                                                United States


                                                                    China + H. Kong


                                                                    Canada




                         2010 (up to April)
                                                              Brazil


                                                         Chile




DG AGRI C4
                                                                                        EU


                                                                                   United States


                                                                China + H. Kong


                                                                    Canada




                         2011 (up to April)
                                                                                                                                                                      Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to April)




                                                              Brazil


                                                         Chile




                                                 0
                                                                     500




               -500
                                                                                      1 000
                                                                                                              1 500
                                                                                                                                      2 000
                                                                                                                                                      2 500




                                                                      Qty in 1000 Tonnes




                                                                                 China + H. Kong                              .

                                                                     Japan                .

                                                                 Russia               .

                                                                Mexico (up to Mar 11)                                     .

                                                              United States                               .
                                    2010 (up to April)




                                                              South Korea                         .

                                                             EU *          .


                                                                                  China + H. Kong                                 .

                                                                     Japan                .

                                                                    Russia                .

                                                               Mexico (up to Mar 11)                                     .

                                                               United States                              .
                                    2011 (up to April)
                                                                                                                                                                      Main Importers of PIG Products (up to April)




23 June 2011




                                                               South Korea                            .

                                                          EU *             .
                                                         0
                                                                       500




 18
                  -500
                                                                                              1 000
                                                                                                                      1 500
                                                                                                                                              2 000
                                                                                                                                                              2 500




                                                                               Qty in 1000 Tonnes
                            46 135




                 1995
                                                            881 011
                            59 720




                 1996
                                                               943 405
                            71 937




                 1997
                                                                        1 083 230
                            51 641




DG AGRI C4
                 1998
                                                                                1 238 138
                            63 800




                 1999
                                                                                                  1 556 961
                                                                                                                                                                                IMPORTS




                            55 918




                 2000
                                                                                                  1 545 907
                            56 077




                 2001
                                                                                     1 331 808
                            54 499




                 2002
                                                                                                  1 526 563
                                                                                                                                                                                EXPORTS




                            72 276




                 2003
                                                                                                  1 509 302
                            22 612




                 2004
                                                                                                                1 780 568
                            21 730




                 2005
                                                                                                                     1 938 455
                            32 368


                 2006
                                                                                                                              2 089 363
                            43 179
                                                                                                                                                                                                      EU trade of PIG products




                 2007                                                                                              1 910 908
                            59 838
                 2008


                                                                                                                                                       2 569 087
                            51 662
                 2009




                                                                                                                                           2 384 536
                            43 401
                 2010




                                                                                                                                                           2 685 319
                            11 932
                11
               Apr
               Jan-




                                                                  974 302
                        0



23 June 2011
                              250 000
                                        500 000
                                                  750 000
                                                            1 000 000
                                                                         1 250 000
                                                                                      1 500 000
                                                                                                    1 750 000
                                                                                                                  2 000 000
                                                                                                                               2 250 000
                                                                                                                                           2 500 000
                                                                                                                                                        2 750 000
                                                                                                                                                                    3 000 000
                                                                                                                                                                                          3 250 000




                                                    Tonnes product weight
 19
                  EU imports of selected PIG products
              Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

                    2007            2008            2009            2010          Jan-Apr 11     Compared
 Origins
                tonnes     %     tonnes    %     tonnes    %     tonnes    %     tonnes    %      o    A
                                                                                                 t Jan- pr10

Switzerland     10 476     24% 12 377      21% 17 240      33% 17 481      40%     6 012   50%           9%
Chile           12 323     29% 17 142      29% 16 557      32%    8 874    20%     2 184   18%        -38%
Croatia          2 863      7%    3 965     7%    4 061     8%    5 250    12%     1 504   13%         -7%
Serbia           1 217      3%    1 181     2%      387     1%      851     2%       742    6%         +++
USA              9 065     21% 21 532      36%    6 416    12%    5 616    13%       396    3%        -87%
Canada           2 660      6%       53     0%      340     1%      414     1%        26    0%        -91%
Other            4 576     11%    3 588     6%    6 661    13%    4 916    11%     1 069    9%
EXTRA EU 25/27 43 179            59 838          51 662          43 401           11 932
% change                          + 39%           - 14%           - 16%          - 33.5%




              DG AGRI C4                                                              23 June 2011             20
                          EU imports of selected PIG products
                   Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

              IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27                         IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (1000 EUR)
                  (Tonnes prod. weight)
                                                                  33 010                                              35 000
                                                                              30 566
   18 228        17 942                               20 000
                             16 403                               5 818                                               30 000
   2 044                                              18 000                                  25 954
                 3 192                                16 000                   7 928
                                 1 753                                                                                25 000
                                          11 932      14 000                                   5 996
   3 767                                                                                                  17 698      20 000
                                                      12 000     11 132
                 5 457                     1 838
                                 5 517       0        10 000                                               4 328      15 000
   4 839                                              8 000
                                                                              15 140           8 346
                                           6 012      6 000                                                           10 000
                 6 971           3 500
                                                      4 000      13 084
   5 960                                                                                                   7 152      5 000
                                 2 995                2 000                                    7 289
                                           2 184                               3 658
                 1 496                      396                                                            1 197
                                                      0                                                               0
 Jan-Apr 08    Jan-Apr 09   Jan-Apr 10   Jan-Apr 11             Jan-Apr 08   Jan-Apr 09     Jan-Apr 10   Jan-Apr 11
USA                  Chile               Switzerland           USA                     Chile                Switzerland
Croatia              Argentina           Other destinations    Croatia                 Argentina            Other destinations


                DG AGRI C4                                                                         23 June 2011           21
                     Imports of selected PIG products


         in Tonnes
          (product                                                                          6 000
          weight)


                                                                                            4 500




                                                                                            3 000




                                                                                            1 500




                                                                                            0
   |      2006      |     2007      |     2008      |     2009      |     2010      |
Jan 06           Jan 07          Jan 08          Jan 09          Jan 10          Jan 11



                  FRESH          FROZEN          FAT         OTHERS
                 DG AGRI C4                                                  23 June 2011       22
                            EU exports of selected PIG products:
                    Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
                        2007               2008               2009               2010           Jan-Apr 11        Compared
   Destinations
                   tonnes      %      tonnes      %      tonnes      %      tonnes      %      tonnes     %      to Jan-Apr 10
Russia              647 052 33.9%      769 044 29.9%      760 880 31.9%      809 149 30.1%     271 198 27.8%            + 8%
Hong Kong           243 171 12.7%      462 299 18.0%      413 548 17.3%      421 948 15.7%     163 056 16.7%           + 25%
South Korea         137 421    7.2%    115 757    4.5%     95 163    4.0%    100 796    3.8%     83 208   8.5%       + 141%
Japan               232 951 12.2%      236 609    9.2%    186 134    7.8%    223 903    8.3%     78 448   8.1%         + 14%
China                86 345    4.5%    147 951    5.8%    178 725    7.5%    212 020    7.9%     74 519   7.6%         + 32%
Philippines          34 243    1.8%     40 912    1.6%     26 572    1.1%     89 388    3.3%     36 805   3.8%         + 16%
Belarus              10 509    0.5%     55 276    2.2%     28 369    1.2%     80 284    3.0%     27 152   2.8%       + 108%
Ukraine               2 757    0.1%    189 001    7.4%    147 030    6.2%    137 882    5.1%     24 307   2.5%         - 30%
USA                  66 472    3.5%     61 471    2.4%     55 495    2.3%     58 627    2.2%     21 531   2.2%         + 10%
Croatia              56 151    2.9%     63 426    2.5%     70 697    3.0%     67 581    2.5%     19 179   2.0%          + 7%
Angola               48 637    2.5%     49 003    1.9%     45 424    1.9%     44 501    1.7%     17 510   1.8%         + 32%
Australia            34 583    1.8%     45 621    1.8%     46 703    2.0%     50 310    1.9%     13 985   1.4%         - 29%
Other               310 615 16.3%      332 719 13.0%      329 795 13.8%      388 931 14.5%     143 403 14.7%
EXTRA EU15-25-27   1 910 908          2 569 087          2 384 536          2 685 319          974 302
% change                                + 34%               - 7%              + 13%            + 28.5%


                   DG AGRI C4                                                                    23 June 2011           23
                            EU exports of selected PIG products
                     Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)


              EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat                                                             EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)
                 (Tonnes prod. weight)
                                                     1 200 000                                                               1 625 160        1 800 000

                                                                                                                                              1 600 000
                                   974 302           1 000 000




                                                                 Tonnes (product weight)
                                                                                              1 223 163      1 267 003                        1 400 000
                  811 603                                                                                                     566 515
  758 184
                                    303 872          800 000                                                                                  1 200 000




                                                                                                                                                             1,000 EUR
                  271 329                                                                                     474 219                         1 000 000
  256 637                                                                                      469 495
                                                     600 000
                                     78 448                                                                                                   800 000
                                                                                                                              255 533
                   68 652
   66 795                                                                                                     224 342
                                                     400 000                                   232 040                                        600 000
                                    163 056
                  130 413                                                                                                     167 764
  135 221                                                                                                     118 893                         400 000
                                                     200 000
                  250 431           271 198                                                                                   397 007         200 000
  205 670                                                                                                     339 326
                                                                                               266 862
                                                     0                                                                                        0
 Jan-Apr 09      Jan-Apr 10        Jan-Apr 11                                                 Jan-Apr 09     Jan-Apr 10      Jan-Apr 11
Russia               Hong Kong                  China                                      Russia              Hong Kong                China
Japan                South Korea                Other destinations                         Japan               South Korea              Other destinations




              DG AGRI C4                                                                                                     23 June 2011                 24
             Exports of selected PIG products
                                                                                 250 000




                                                                                           in Tonnes (product weight)
                                                                                 200 000



                                                                                 150 000



                                                                                 100 000



                                                                                 50 000



                                                                                 0
  |   2006      |    2007      |   2008     |    2009     |    2010        |
Jan           Jan            Jan          Jan           Jan              Jan
 06            07             08           09            10               11

      FRESH         FROZEN         FAT          LIVE ANIMALS          OTHERS

              DG AGRI C4                                              23 June 2011    25
         600 000
                                 Cumulated quantity of
                                     w eekly requests
                                    for Export licenses
         500 000                  in the Pigmeat sector
                                for Gatt year 2010 - 2011
         400 000
Tonnes




         300 000



         200 000


                                                                 Cumulative quantity available
         100 000
                                                                 cumulative attributions


              0
                   1    3   5   7   9   11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

                       DG AGRI C4                                                  23 June 2011   26

				
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