Nathan

							Reliever                ERA        IP_bef      LI_bef     RAR_bef        ERA        IP_aft       LI_aft
Joe Nathan              2.25          65         1.8        33           2.25         0            0.0
Jon Rauch               3.75          65         1.4        10           3.75         65           1.8
Jose Mijares            4.00          65         1.1         6           4.00         65           1.4
Matt Guerrier           4.00          65         1.0         5           4.00         65           1.1
Jesse Crain             4.00          65         0.9         5           4.00         65           1.0
Clay Condrey            4.25          65         0.7         3           4.25         65           0.9
Brian Duensing          4.50          55         0.5         1           4.50         55           0.7
Glen Perkins            4.50          45         0.5         1           4.50         55           0.5
Joe Scrub               4.75          0          0.0         0           4.75         55           0.5
             Total:     3.87         490        1.02        63           4.20        490          1.01

                        Runs        Wins
        Difference:      26         2.6

                      Tips:
                      - Change the green cells, but don't touch the orange cells -- they're calculations.
                      - The average bullpen throws around 490 innings, but that's not set in stone
                      - The average LI for the whole bullpen should be around 1
                      - Good LI's to use: closer = 1.8, setup = 1.4, a few around 1, the rest .7 or less
                      - For good, objective projections, check out CHONE and ZiPS at baseballprojection.com, baseballthinkfac
                      - RAR is runs above replacement, which is (4.75 - ERA) * IP/9 * LI [4.75 is the approximate ERA of a repla
                      - LI is leverage index, the average importance of the situations a pitcher faces. 1 is average. More at fan

                      Feel free to distribute and modify. Please keep all credits in tact and don't sell it.
                      Much thanks to Tom Tango and the insidethebook.com/ee community for their help understanding bullp
                      For more on bullpen chaining, try this: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/4/29/856308/bullpen

                      Created by Sky Kalkman, www.beyondtheboxscore.com
              RAR_aft
                0
                13
                8
                6
                5
                3
                1
                1
                0
                37




 llprojection.com, baseballthinkfactory.org, and fangraphs.com
5 is the approximate ERA of a replacement level scrub reliever]
er faces. 1 is average. More at fangraphs.com



 for their help understanding bullpen chaining.
e.com/2009/4/29/856308/bullpen-chaining-and-reliever-war