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Sunday October 17_ 2010 Powered By Docstoc
					   GLP Open Science Meeting 2010 –
   Land Systems, Global Change and
            Sustainability
     Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
                     October 17-19, 2010


                   Program

The GLP OSM 2010 is supported by:




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Content
1. Conference program overview………………….   3
2. Parallel session overview……………………….   5
3. Plenary session details…………………………     8
4. Parallel session details…………………………    35
5. List of posters……………………………………         46
6. Overview room numbers and map…………..   48




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1. Conference program overview
Saturday October 16, 2010
2:00pm - 6:00pm GLP Registration (at Memorial Union)

Sunday October 17, 2010
Joint UGEC/GLP Day Sustainable Land Systems in the Era of Urbanization and Climate
Change
7:00a.m. – 8:45a.m.  GLP Registration
8:45a.m. – 9:15a.m.  Welcoming/Opening Statements from GLP

9:15a.m. – 10:30a.m.    Joint UGEC/GLP Plenary 1 - Urban land systems and
                        sustainability. Chair: Billie L. Turner II, ASU, USA
                           • Karen C. Seto, Yale University, USA
                           • Marina Alberti, University of Washington, USA
                           • J. Morgan Grove, United States Forest Service, USA
10:30a.m. – 11:00a.m.   Break
11:00am – 1:00p.m.      Joint UGEC/GLP Parallel Sessions (Group J – A)
1:00p.m. – 2:00p.m.     Lunch
2:00p.m. – 4:00p.m.     Joint UGEC/GLP Parallel Sessions (Group J – B)

4:00p.m. – 4:30p.m.     Break
4:30p.m. – 5:45p.m.     Joint UGEC/GLP Plenary 2 - Sustainability of Desert Urbanization.
                        Chair: Michael Crow (President, ASU)
                           • Nancy Grimm, ASU, USA
                           • Grady Gammage Jr., Gammage and Burnham PLC
                           • Pat Gober, ASU, USA
6:30 p.m. – 8:00p.m.    UGEC/GLP Joint Reception at the Nina Mason Pulliam Rio Salado
                        Audubon Center, co-sponsored by GIOS




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Monday October 18, 2010
GLP OSM 2010 - Land Systems, Global Change and Sustainability
8:30 a.m. – 10:00a.m. Plenary Session 3 - Pathways to Environmental Impacts
                      Chair: Sandra Lavorel, Université J. Fourier, France
                         • Eric F. Lambin, University of Louvain, Belgium
                         • Johnathan Foley, University of Minnesota, USA
                         • Sandra Diaz, CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Córdoba,
                             Argentina
10:00a.m. – 10:30a.m. Break
10:30a.m. – 12:30p.m. Parallel Sessions (Group C)
12:30a.m. – 1:30p.m.  Lunch
1:30p.m. - 3:00p.m.   Plenary Session 4 - Pathways to Human Outcomes
                      Chair: Anette Reenberg, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
                         • Diana Liverman, University of Arizona, USA
                         • Ruth DeFries, Columbia University, USA
                         • Bob Scholes, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research
                             (CSIR), South Africa
3:00p.m. – 3:30p.m.   Break
3:30p.m. – 5:30p.m.   Parallel Sessions (Group D)
5:30p.m. – 7:00p.m.   GLP reception


Tuesday October 19, 2010
GLP OSM 2010 - Land Systems, Global Change and Sustainability
8:30a.m. – 9:30a.m.  Plenary Session 5 - Vulnerability and resilience of land systems
                     Chair: Sander van der Leeuw, ASU, USA
                         • Terry Chapin, University of Alaska, USA
                         • Hallie Eakin, ASU, USA

9:30a.m. – 10:30a.m.    Poster Session
10:30a.m. – 12:30p.m.   Parallel Sessions Group E
12:30p.m. - 1:30p.m.    Lunch
1:30p.m. – 3:30p.m.     Parallel Sessions - Group F
3:30.m. – 4:00p.m.      Break
4:00p.m. – 5:30p.m.     Plenary Session 6 - Tradeoffs for Land Systems Analysis
                        Chair: Billie L. Turner II, ASU
                           • Kerry Smith, ASU, USA
                           • Charles Perrings, ASU, USA
                           • Steve Polasky, University of Minnesota, USA
                           • Ann Kinzig, ASU, USA
                           • David Tilman, University of Minnesota, USA




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2. Parallel session overview


                            Sunday October 17, 2010
  Joint UGEC/GLP Day Sustainable Land Systems in the Era of Urbanization
                         and Climate Change



11:00am – 1:00p.m. Joint UGEC/GLP Parallel Sessions (Group J – A)

   J-A1     Direct and Indirect Interactions of Urban Areas and Land Use Changes (Room: La
            Paz)
   J-A2     Urban vegetation and socio-ecological contexts: Heterogeneity, trends and
            implications (Room: Gold)
   J-A3     Urban ecology and Global Environmental Change (Room: Ventana A)
   J-A4     Peri-Urban Development and Environmental Sustainability II: Examples from Asia &
            Europe (Room: Ventana C)
   J-A5     Sustainable Cities in Arid Areas (Room: Cochise)
   J-A6     Market mechanisms in land-use change models (Room: Turquoise)
   J-A 7    Global land-use and land-cover datasets – status, challenges and new opportunities
            (Room: Alumi)
   J-A8     Modeling dynamic urban-environmental interactions (Room: Pima)
   J-A9     Advances in urban remote sensing (Room: Mohave)


2:00p.m. – 4:00p.m. Joint UGEC/GLP Parallel Sessions (Group J – B)

   J-B1     Sustainability Challenges Related to Urbanization in Phoenix, Arizona: Past, Present,
            and Future (Room: Mohave)
   J-B2     Side Event: Modeling and Forecasting Urban Land-Use Change: An Earth System
            Science Perspective (Room: La Paz)
   J-B3     Land system dynamics: Chinese perspectives I (Room: Ventana A)
   J-B4     Forest transitions in a global economy (Room: Cochise)
   J-B5     Globalizing the case study: advantages and opportunities (Room: Ventana C)
   J-B6     Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS) in China and Nepal (Room: Pima)
   J-B7     Evolving urban spatial structure and the environment (Room: Alumni)
   J-B8     Suburban and exurban land use change processes, patterns and ecological impacts
            (Room: Gold)




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                           Monday October 18, 2010
           GLP OSM Land Systems, Global Change and Sustainability


10:30a.m. – 12:30p.m. Parallel Sessions (Group C)

   C1       Land change and sensitive biodiversity areas (Room: Yuma)
   C2       Land prioritisation: bioenergy, food, and other products (Room: Gold)
   C3       Carbon in the land system (Room: Ventana A)
   C4       Ecosystem Services: methods, frameworks and tools (Room: Pima)
   C5       Land system dynamics: Chinese perspectives II (Room: Graham)
   C6       Water, nutrients and food security (Room: Gila)
   C7       Vulnerability and resilience of coupled land systems (Room: Santa Cruz)
   C8       Environmental Disturbances in Heterogeneous Landscapes: Remote Sensing, spatial
            modeling and weather extreme events (Room: Mohave)
   C9       Land use/land cover change in post-socialist Eastern Europe and Russia (Room:
            Turquoise)
   C10      Complexities in land systems: markets and livelihoods (Room: Coconino)
   C11      Role of Institutions and Governance in land change I (Room: Ventana C)
   C12      Land use, Land use change and associated GHG emissions (Room: La Paz)




3:30p.m. – 5:30p.m. Parallel Sessions (Group D)

   D1       Soil resources and biogeochemical cycles in land systems (Room: Santa Cruz)
   D2       Ecosystem Services: local to regional examples (Room: Pima)
   D3       Land systems and water resource (Room: Gila)
   D4       Vulnerability of land systems to natual hazards and climate change (Room: Mohave)
   D5       Dryland Systems dynamics – driving forces, processes and pathways of change
            (Room: La Paz)
   D6       Vulnerability and Resilience under global warming in Asian Dryland Systems
            (Room: Gold)
   D7       Scaling and Governance of the land system (Room: Graham)
   D8       Tools and methods for impact assessment of land use policies (Room: Coconino)
   D9       Implementing REDD in Latin America (Room: Turquoise)
   D10      Role of Institutions and Governance in land change II (Room: Ventana C)




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                            Tuesday October 19, 2010
           GLP OSM Land Systems, Global Change and Sustainability


10:30a.m. – 12:30p.m. Parallel Sessions (Group E)

   E1       Savanna and grassland systems (Room: Ventana C)
   E2       Long-term socio-ecological research and land-system science (Room: Pima)
   E3       Ecosystem services delivered by watersheds (Room: La Paz)
   E4       Earth observation I (Room: Ventana A)
   E5       Change in shifting cultivation at forest-agriculture frontiers I (Room: Cochise)
   E6       Population and Land Use/Cover Change in Latin America (Room: Coconino)
   E7       Land change in mountain regions (Room: Yuma)
   E8       Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling Integrated Land-Change Processes I
            (Room: Alumni)
   E9       Teaching in Land-Change science (Room: Graham)
   E 10     Mitigation and Adaptation to climate change (Room: Gold)


1:30p.m. – 3:30p.m. Parallel Sessions – (Group F)

   F1       Mapping and modelling land use change effects on ecosystem services (Room: Pima)
   F2       Earth observation II (Room: Ventana A)
   F3       Change in shifting cultivation at forest-agriculture frontiers II (Room: Coconino)
   F4       ARIDnet-Americas: A Research Network for Testing the Drylands Development
            Paradigm (Room: La Paz)
   F5       iLeaps session: How can we properly evaluate the role of land-use induced land-
            cover changes in the climate system? (Room: Gila)
   F6       Panel: Researching land use transition: pathways to sustainable land management
            (Room: Ventana C)
   F7       The Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) Program Partnership
            between the CGIAR and ESSP: The Need for Improved Land Use Modeling (Room:
            Alumni)
   F8       Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling Integrated Land-Change Processes II
            (Room: Gold)
   F9       Institutions and Changing Land Systems in the Americas (Room: Cochise)




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3. Plenary session details
Plenary 1: Sunday 17th (9:00-10:30 AM): Welcome GLP and Plenary: Urban land systems for
sustainability
Chair: Billie Turner II, ASU
Speakers: Karen C. Seto, Yale University; Marina Alberti, University of Washington; J. Morgan
Grove, United States Forest Service

The shift from rural to urban living has been a defining global trend of the last 100 years, and urban
areas are emerging as the most common form of human settlement worldwide. Globally, urban
population is expected to increase by 2 to 5 billion over the next forty years. The rate, magnitude,
and patterns of contemporary urbanization presents both opportunities and challenges to
sustainability. Today’s urban transition is a myriad of trends that can be described as either the
biggest, fastest, or the first in history: the size and number of cities; the rate at which populations
and landscapes are urbanizing; the changing geography of urbanization in developing countries; and
depopulation in manufacturing cities. It is the confluence of these trends that presents both
opportunities and challenges to the sustainability of Earth’s life support systems.

The changes in the characteristics of contemporary urbanization are fundamentally transforming the
relationship between cities and the global environment. This new era of urbanization—as both a
demographic and land change process—has characteristics that differentiate it from other periods in
history. A major challenge humanity faces is how to change the current scale, form, and rate of
urbanization to build opportunities for sustainability in both developed and developing countries.
The scale of urbanization is extraordinary; cities are bigger than any other time in terms of their
physical extents, population sizes, economic importance, and environmental impacts. The rate at
which populations and land cover are becoming urban is faster than any other time in history. The
location of urbanization is changing; urban growth in the coming decades will take place primarily
in Asia and Africa and expand into agricultural lands, forests, and other natural land covers; urban
function is increasingly specialized and this in turn has differentiated effects on the urban labor
force, urban lifestyles, and the environment. These characteristics suggest a significant break from
periods of rapid urbanization in the past; together, they represent a profoundly new era of
urbanization.

Plenary 2: Sunday 17th (4:30-5:45 PM): Roundtable: Opportunities and challenges for
sustainability in arid cities
Chair: Michael Crow, President, ASU
Roundtable Participants: Grady Gammage, ASU; Nancy Grimm, ASU; Pat Gober, ASU

Many of today’s fastest growing cities are in arid regions. Faced with limited water availability,
growing populations, and rising demand for energy, desert urbanization creates unique challenges to
sustainability. Provision of adequate quantity and quality of water to feed this growth is emerging as
an important challenge. Cities in dry regions are particularly critical since climate change
projections indicate an increased frequency of climatic extreme events and a progressive decline in
rainfall in these regions. In the global south, cities are already struggling with providing access to
potable water supplies to their growing populations and seem scarcely equipped to deal with the
uncertainties due to climate change. In this session, a panel of experts on desert urban ecosystems




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will discuss the links between science and policy, the challenges of urban growth and water
management, and the decision-making processes that are central to achieving sustainability in arid
urban regions.

Plenary 3: Monday 18th (8:30-10:00 AM): Pathways to Environmental Impacts
Chair: Sandra Lavorel, Université J. Fourier, France
Speakers: Sandra Diaz, U. N. de Córdoba, Argentina; John Foley, U. of Minnesota; Eric Lambin,
U. C. Louvain, Belgium & Stanford U.

This session examines the trajectories, trends, and pathways by which changes in land systems
affect the biophysical system (land cover, ecosystems, landscape). Attention is given to how land
changes affect the structure and function of the environmental subsystem, with an eye towards
identifying tipping elements within and resilience of that subsystem.

   •   Eric Lambin: Pathways of land-use change in the globalization era. Short statement :
       This contribution will discuss mechanisms through which economic globalization
       increasingly drives land use change. Reconciling development with nature conservation
       requires better understanding land change as part of open systems with global-scale
       circulation of goods, people, and capital.

   •   Sandra Diaz: Incorporating functional diversity and social heterogeneity in the
       assessment of ecosystem services.
       We propose a framework to link biodiversity, social heterogeneity and land use at the
       subregional level.
          • Global environmental change, including land use change, affects the sustained
              provision of a wide set of ecosystem services.
          • The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment pointed to three major areas in which
              further progress was needed: (1) regional assessments; (2) refinement of the global
              ecosystem service classification to account for the fact that different social groups in
              different regions perceive and value very different benefits from nature; and (3)
              better understanding of the effect of biodiversity on such benefits.
          • We address these challenges by focusing on the links between biodiversity, social
              heterogeneity and land use change at subregional (patch to landscape) scales.
           • The key elements are functional biodiversity and social actor strategies, which are
              linked by specific ecosystem services and land use change trajectories.

   •   John Foley: The Other Inconvenient Truth: Feeding 9 Billion While Sustaining the
       Earth System
       As the international community focuses on climate change as the great challenge of our era,
       we have been largely ignoring another looming problem — the global crisis in agriculture,
       food security and the environment. Our use of land, particularly for agriculture, is
       absolutely essential to the success of the human race: we depend on agriculture to supply us
       with food, feed, fiber, and, increasingly, biofuels. Without a highly efficient, productive, and
       resilient agricultural system, our society would collapse almost overnight. But we are
       demanding more and more from our global agricultural systems, pushing them to their very
       limits. Continued population growth (adding more than 70 million people to the world every
       year), changing dietary preferences (including more meat and dairy consumption), rising
       energy prices, and increasing needs for bioenergy sources are putting tremendous pressure



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       on the world’s resources. And, if we want any hope of keeping up with these demands, we’ll
       need to double the agricultural production of the planet in the next 30 to 40 years.

       Meeting these huge new agricultural demands will be one of the greatest challenges of the
       21st century. At present, it is completely unclear how (and if) we can do it. If this wasn’t
       enough, we must also address the massive environmental impacts of our current agricultural
       practices, which new evidence indicates rival the impacts of climate change. Simply put,
       providing for the basic needs of 9 billion-plus people, without ruining the biosphere in the
       process, will be one of the greatest challenges our species has ever faced.

       In this presentation, I will present a framework for evaluating and assessing global patterns
       of agriculture, food / fiber / fuel production, and their relationship to the earth system,
       particularly in terms of changing stocks and flows of water, nutrients and carbon in our
       planetary environment. This framework aims to help us manage the challenges of
       increasing global food security -- in the fact of dramatically increasing demand -- while
       greatly reducing the impact of agriculture on the earth system.


Plenary 4: Monday 18th (1:30-3:00PM): Pathways to Human Outcomes
Chair: Anette Reenberg, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
Speakers: Ruth DeFries, Columbia University, Diana Liverman, University of Arizona, Bob Scholes,
CSIR S. Africa

The feedbacks from changes in land systems to the human condition are the subject of this session.
Trajectories, trends, and specific cases of these relationships are examined. Attention is given to the
human consequences of changes in environmental services.

   •   Bob Scholes: Linking human wellbeing to ecosystem state through the concept of
       ecosystem services. The links between biodiversity, ecosystem function and the flow of
       benefits to people are intuitively appealing but have proven quite difficult to quantify in
       practice. A revised conceptual model will be presented that could help to resolve the
       relationships.

   •   Diana Liverman: forthcoming

   •   Ruth DeFries: Food, Forage, and Forests: Human Outcomes around a Central Indian
       Park. Forests provide multiple ecosystem services at global, regional, and local scales.
       Services at the local scale include access to foods andforage for forest‑dependent peoples.
       The relative contribution to well‑being from access to forest vs improved income is an open
       question. A case study of the relationships between food security, livestock ownership,
       capital assets and proximity to forests in central India examines this question.


Plenary 5: Tuesday 19th (8:30-9:30 AM): Vulnerability and Resilience of Land Systems
Chair: Bill Turner, ASU
Speakers: Hallie Eakin, ASU; Terry Chapin, U. Alaska-Fairbanks




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This session examines the state-of-the-science regarding two complementary but heretofore
alternative visions of examining the character and dynamics of perturbations and hazards operating
on land systems.

   •   Hallie Eakin: Synergy and friction in household vulnerability and system resilience.
       The efforts of households to reduce their vulnerability to perceived and experienced stress
       can have unexpected and potentially undesirable outcomes at broader spatial and temporal
       scales. Households adapt within the confines of their specific choice sets; these choice sets
       are heavily influenced by relatively slow processes of institutional and ideological change
       operating at higher scales with significant inertia. The imprint of these broader processes
       persists in landscapes and in the values, expectations and behavior of society such that local
       choice sets are often defined more by past decisions than by anticipated impacts or
       opportunities.

   •   F. Stuart Chapin, III. Ecosystem Stewardship: Sustainability Strategies for a Rapidly
       Changing Planet
       Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster social-ecological
       sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies
       that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty
       and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known
       stresses; focusing on proactive policies that shape change; and avoiding or escaping
       unsustainable social-ecological traps. All social-ecological systems are vulnerable to recent
       and projected changes but have sources of adaptive capacity and resilience that can sustain
       ecosystem services and human well-being through active ecosystem stewardship. There is
       urgent need for natural and social scientists to collaborate in developing strategies that foster
       stewardship at all scales.

Plenary 6: Tuesday 19th (4:00-5:30PM): Tradeoffs for Land Systems Analysis
Chair: Bill Turner II, ASU or one of the below
Panelists: Terry Chapin, U. Alaska-Fairbanks; Ann Kinzig, ASU; Charles Perrings, ASU; Steve
Polasky, U. Minnesota; Kerry Smith, ASU; David Tilman, U. Minnesota

Increasingly it is recognized that many of the questions posed by sustainability science about
coupled human-environment systems, such as land systems, demands assessments of tradeoffs
within and between environmental services and human outcomes. How to do accomplish this
assessment remains a major question which this panel will address.




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4. Parallel session details
                            Sunday October 17, 2010
Joint UGEC/GLP Day Sustainable Land Systems in the Era of Urbanization and
                           Climate Change



11:00am – 1:00p.m. Joint UGEC/GLP Parallel Sessions (Group J – A)
J-A1: Direct and Indirect Interactions of Urban Areas and Land Use Changes
Room Location: La Paz
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Urbano Fra Paleo, University of Santiago de Compostela, Spain

   •   UGEC0016: Urban Growth and its Impact on Biodiversity and Food & Livelihood Security
       in High Mountain Ecosystems: An Empirical Study in Kumaon Himalaya, India; Prakash
       Chandra Tiwari, Kumaun University Nainital, India
   •   UGEC0038: Land use changes in the context of urbanization and environmental
       vulnerability in Baixada Santista Metropolitan Region. Andrea Young, Unicamp, Brazil
   •   UGEC0098: Monitoring urban land expansion and loss of agricultural land of Xi'an, China;
       Li Jiang, Yale University, United States
   •   UGEC0104: Urbanization and Cultivated Land Changes in China; Xiangzheng Deng,
       Institute of Geographic Science and Nature Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese
       Academy of Sciences, China
   •   0147: The impact of urbanization on soil resources in the PRD: Weiping Hu, McMaster
       University, Canada
   •   0173: Housing drives urban land change and has a climatic feedback; Alejandro de las
       Heras, Proyecto de Recuperacion del Berrendo Peninsular, Mexico
   •   0358: Are land systems in Japan becoming more sustainable in the era of urbanization and
       climate change? An educationist's view; Yukio Himyama, Hokkaido University of
       Education, Japan

J-A2: Urban vegetation and socio-ecological contexts: Heterogeneity, trends and implications
Room Location: Gold
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Rinku Roy Chowdhury, Indiana University, USA

With the rapid and overwhelming spatial scope of contemporary urbanization, the role of urban
areas and ecologies in local, regional and global environmental change has received increasing
scientific attention. Land change science, long term ecological research and urban
geography/political ecology have variously investigated aspects of human-environment
interactions and processes in urban systems. The heterogeneous patterns, trajectories and
dynamics of urban vegetation have significant implications for ecosystem structure and function,
are fundamentally tied to particular socioeconomic and political dynamics, and hold differential
implications for urban dwellers.




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In this session, we highlight the results of empirical research on urban vegetation distribution, its
fundamental driving dynamics and socio-ecological implications across a diversity of urban sites
in the United States, and in Brazil. These sites represent various stages of historical urban
development, urban size, regional biophysical regimes, and socio-political and institutional
contexts. The analyses and case studies highlight critical patterns and processes of urbanization
dynamics in order to understand their social and environmental interfaces, and implications for
local and regional sustainability.
    • UGEC0127: Spatial distribution and socio-economic contexts of urban tree canopy cover in
        Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Sarah Mincey, Indiana University, United States
    • UGEC0128: An interdisciplinary, multi-scalar framework for understanding the social-
        ecological dynamics of residential landscapes; Kelli Larson, Arizona State University,
       United States
   •   UGEC0162: Spatial patterns and socio-ecological context of land use and vegetative cover
       in south Florida's suburbanization frontier; Rinku Roy Chowdhury, Indiana University,
       United States
   •   UGEC0175: Socio-ecological dynamics and urban vegetation in Baltimore, Maryland; J.
       Morgan Grove, United States Forest Service, United States
   •   UGEC0179: Suburbanization, Lawns, & Water: Multi-scale Dynamics in Suburban Boston,
       USA; Colin Polsky, Clark University, United States
   •   0148: Spatial patterns, temporal trends and socioeconomic determinants of vegetative cover
       in Altamira, Brazil; Scott Hetrick, Indiana University, United States

J-A3: Urban ecology and Global Environmental Change
Room Location: Ventana A
Session organizer(s)/chair(s): Christopher Boone, Arizona State University

This session focuses on the intersection of questions on how to deal with limited resources and
ecosystem services and how to increase equity and establishing social cohesion at various levels in
an era of global environmental change. Scholars have recently started exploring complex links
between ecology environmental justice through new integrated, collaborative, transdisciplinary and
synthetic research on the dynamics of socio-ecological systems. Despite the increasing intellectual
acceptance of the links between ecological and social systems, scientists are just beginning to make
the empirical connections between environmental justice and ecological structure and function as
both fields have devoted enormous resources to developing robust metrics and models. This session
will capitalize on these efforts and pinpoint new research, datasets and methods at the intersection
of ecology and environmental justice for urban areas that help address the following overarching
questions: How does the distribution of environmental inequities, measured by the uneven
distribution of ecosystems services, affect the vulnerability and resilience of urban social-ecological
systems to regime shifts? And in turn, how do social and ecological regime shifts affect the
distribution of ecosystems services and environmental justice patterns in urban areas?

   •   UGEC 0041: San Juan ULTRA-Ex: Social-Ecological Systems Change, Vulnerability, and
       the Future of a Tropical City. Tischa Munoz-Erickson presented by Gil Pontius, Clark
       University, United States
   •   UGEC 0083: Environmental drivers of urbanization: footprints bound for town? Lezlie
       Moriniere, University of Arizona, United States




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   •   UGEC 0116: Assessing the impacts of urban expansion on net primary productivity of
       terrestrial vegetation in China from 1992 to 2008; Chunyang He, Beijing Normal University,
       China
   •   UGEC 0123: Urban Ecotone: Habitat Functions of Urban River - Study Case in Megacity
       Taipei, Taiwan; Yu-Fang Lin, Leibniz University of Hanover, Germany
   •   UGEC0126: Anthropogenic afforestation and ecosystem services: How urban vegetation
       affects ecosystem structure and function; Nancy Golubiewski, independent consultant,
       New Zealand
   •   UGEC 0180: Linking ecological methods to local land use law to guide land development;
       Alexander Felson, Yale University, United States
   •   0135: Ecological network: a sustainable and multi-actor land systems planning in a rapid
       urbanization area, Shenzhen case, China; Yu-Fang Deyong, Research Center for Eco-
       Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

J-A4: Peri-Urban Development and Environmental Sustainability II: Examples from Asia &
Europe
Room Location: Ventana C
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Shu-Li Huang, National Tapei University, Taiwan and Peter
Marcotullio, Hunter College, CUNY

Large-scale urban development is likely to be one of the primary sources of environmental change
in Asia over the next decades, and more of this development will take place in India and China
than in any other two countries. Rapid urban growth can have severe consequences for
environmental sustainability creating an urgent need for alternative pathways to development.
This panel presents in part preliminary findings from the first systematic comparative analyses of
development on the urban fringe and its environmental consequences in these two countries. The
presentations analyze local and regional variations in developmental trajectories and sustainability
among a number of urban regions within each country. The focus of each is on land use,
ecosystems and environmental. This project has been funded by the US National Science
Foundation administered by the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research.
    • UGEC 0029: Field-level adaptation to floods and sea level rise in coastal peri-urban areas in
       monsoon Asia: comparative case studies between continental Bangkok and insular Metro
       Manila; Yuji Hara, Wakayama University, Japan
    • UGEC 0060: Peri-urbanization, Ecosystem service evaluation, and Integrated Modelling:
       PU-GEC Project; Shu-Li Huang, Taipei University, Taiwan
    • 0161: European information platform for processes, problems and places of peri-
       urbanization; Katharina Helming, Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
       (ZALF), Germany
    • 0263: Suburbanization in Shanghai: assessment, causes, and policy implications; Wenze
       Yue, Zhejiang University, China

J-A5: Sustainable Cities in Arid Areas
Session Location: Cochise
Session organizer(s)/chair(s): Benjamin Ruddell, Arizona State University, USA

Many of today’s fastest growing cities are in arid regions. Faced with limited water availability,
growing populations, and rising demand for energy, desert urbanization creates unique challenges to
sustainability. Provision of adequate quantity and quality of water to feed this growth is emerging as




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an important challenge. Cities in dry regions are particularly critical since climate change
projections indicate an increased frequency of climatic extreme events and a progressive decline in
rainfall in these regions. In the global south, cities are already struggling with providing access to
potable water supplies to their growing populations and seem scarcely equipped to deal with the
uncertainties due to climate change. In this session, a panel of experts on desert urban ecosystems
will discuss the links between science and policy, the challenges of urban growth and water
management, and the decision-making processes that are central to achieving sustainability in arid
urban regions.

   •   UGEC0109: Environmental Tradeoffs in a Desert City: An Investigation of Water Use,
       Energy Consumption, and Local Air Temperature in Phoenix, AZ; Darren Ruddell, Arizona
       State University, United States
   •   UGEC0110: The Roles of Coupled Land and Water Institution in Land System Change;
       Sainan Zhang, Arizona State University, United States
   •   UGEC0174, Mapping vulnerability on the peri-urban areas of Mexican border cities: Case
       studies of Northern Mexico, Rolando Diaz-Caravantes, Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad
       Juárez, Mexico
   •   0328: Socio-ecological vulnerability and biological invasion at the urban-wildland interface
       in Arizona's Sonoran desert; Jacob Brenner, Ithaca College, USA

J-A6: Market mechanisms in land-use change models
Session Location: Turquoise
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Dawn Parker, University of Waterloo, Canada

Papers in this session model the effects of local markets on land values and land-use change.
Topics covered include land markets (agricultural, urban fringe, and urban), biofuels markets,
with emphasis on the environmental and social impacts of markets.

   •   0257: Modeling land use and structural change in agricultural systems of the Argentine
       Pampas; Guillermo Podesta, University of Miami, United States
   •   0373: Water basin governance; analyzing the role of land market institutions using multi-
       agent simulation; Nico Polman, Wageningen University, The Netherlands
   •   0244: Informal Land Markets in Urban Peripheries in Latin America: Agent Behaviour,
       Price Formation and Land Use Changes; Moira Zellner, University of Illinois at Chicago,
       United States
   •   0303: An agent-based model of coupled housing and land markets; Nicholas Magliocca,
       University of Maryland, United States
   •   0193: The Land-Use Change Effect of Ethanol Plants in Iowa: 1997-2008; Ruiqing Miao,
       Iowa State University, United States
   •   0267: Assessing the spatio-temporal effects of endogenous relocation in agent-based land
       market models exchange models; Dawn Parker, University of Waterloo, Canada

J-A7: Global land-use and land-cover datasets – status, challenges and new opportunities
Session Location: Alumni Lounge
Session organizer(s)/chair(s): Navin Ramankutty (McGill University, Canada) and Karlheinz Erb
(Alpen-Adria University, Austria)




                                                                                                   15
While remote sensing and earth observation driven advances in global LC products has been
remarkable, knowledge on important LU parameters globally remains patchy, of heterogeneous
quality and often difficult to access. We aim at summarizing the status in LC datasets (briefly)
before discussing new developments, challenges and opportunities for key LU parameters.

   •   Introduction: Karl-Heinz Erb, University Klagenfurt, Austria and Navin Ramankutty,
       McGill University, Canada
   •   0282: Anthromes and the Anthropogenic Biosphere: 1700 to 2000; Erle Ellis, University of
       Maryland, United States
   •   0317: Development of a global market influence dataset to explore the role of accessibility
       to markets on land systems; Peter Verburg, University Amsterdam, The Netherlands
   •   0399: Recent progress & remaining challenges in global LUCC data sets; Navin
       Ramankutty, McGill University, Canada
   •   0380: Global Land Cover, Land Use, and Land Cover Change from Remote Sensing: Data
       Sets, Limits to Knowledge, and Current Challenges; Mark Friedl, Boston University, United
       States
   •   0382: Making Global Land Use / Land Cover Information Relevant: An Example from the
       CROPMAPPER Project; Jonathan Foley, University of Minnesota, United States
   •   0392: Silk Purse from Sow's Ear or Horses for Courses? The Trials and Tribulations of Making
       Credible Global Assessments of the Spatial Distribution of Crop Area, Yield and Production;
       Stanley Wood, CGIAR-Consortium for Spatial Information, United States

J-A8: Modeling dynamic urban-environmental interactions
Session Location: Pima
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Burak Güneralp, Texas A&M University

   •   UGEC0043: Global Multi-Scale Urban Land Cover Modeling; Michael Reilly, Association of
       Bay Area Governments, United States
   •   UGEC0056: Modelling of Urban Expansion of Greater Hyderabad Metropolitan Region in
       India – Scenarios for 2030; Gowtham Gollapalli, IIIT Hyderabad, India
   •   UGEC0057: Mapping the state of city systems based on remote sensing: Exergy and
       sustainability of urban form. Anastasia Svirejeva-Hopkins, Potsdam Institute for Climate
       Impact Research (PIK), Germany
   •   UGEC0066: Land and Resource Use Efficiency for Built-up Environment; Burak Güneralp,
       Texas A&M University, United States
   •   UGEC0161: Urban Expansion Modeling Based on Logistic Regression and Cellular
       Automata: A Case Study in Wujiang; Xiaoxiang Zhang, Hohai University, China
   •   0070: Impacts of residential and touristic urbanization on land and water resources -
       integrated land system modeling in a Mediterranean context. Angela Hof, Ruhr-Universitat
       Bochum, Germany
   •   0073: Rapid Urbanization and Land Fragmentation in the US Southwest: A Socio-ecological
       Gradient Analysis; Milan Shrestha, Arizona State University, United States

J-A9 Advances in urban remote sensing
Session Location: Mohave
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Maik Netzband, Ruhr-University Bochum, Germany




                                                                                             16
Urban Remote Sensing (URS) has proved to be a useful tool for cross-scale urban sustainability
research as humankind increasingly facing the challenges of an urbanizing world. It can track rapid
changes in physical characteristics of human environments – local, regional and global and can
allow scientists to gather important information in the context of human environment interactions
such as the environmental consequences of various social, economic, and demographic processes
and phenomena.
But studies concentrating on the challenge of world urbanization and its interconnections to global
environmental change still claim an unmet need for linked spatial and socio-demographic
information. The well documented gap between social science and remote sensing research arises
from a lack of correspondence in nature or landscape units to grids or even small-scale
administrative units and an imperfect coupling of URS information with social science data streams.
The potential benefits of bridging that gap are great and voices in support of cross-disciplinary
advances in URS methods and techniques and their integration with social science are multiplying
as the social value of such an effort becomes obvious.
This session seeks to better understand how urban remote sensing can best be utilized by both
researchers and practitioners in urban models, planning, and policy formulation. Two major
questions posed in the session are: What is the potential of URS for an integrated interdisciplinary
social science with a focus on urban sustainability?; How can URS fill the gaps in scientific
information best for the needs of integrated spatial social science?

   •    UGEC0200: The global extent of urban land: current monitoring and future forecasts;
        Annemarie Schneider, University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States
   •    0017: Identifying the Poor in the Cities - How can Remote Sensing help to profile poverty
        (slum dwellers) in megacities? Maik Netzband, Ruhr-Universitat Bochum, Germany
   •    0096: Methodology of classifying and detecting intra-urban land use change -- A case study
        of Changchun city during the last 100 years; Wenhui Kuang, State Key Laboratory of
        Resources and Environmental Information System, China
   •    0106: Relationship between land use and cover change and urban heat islands: case of
        Delhi Metropolitan Region; R.B. Singh, University of Delhi, India
   •    0266: The phenologies of US cities; Kirsten de Beurs, Virginia Tech, United States




       2:00p.m. – 4:00p.m. Joint UGEC/GLP Parallel Sessions 2 (Group J – B)
J-B1: Sustainability Challenges Related to Urbanization in Phoenix, Arizona: Past, Present, and
Future
Session Location: Mohave
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Kelly Turner, Arizona State University

In many ways, urbanization in Phoenix creates a crucible of socio-ecological issues relating to
sustainability. Cities have thrived in the Sonoran Desert through the ages despite the
environmental challenges such as water scarcity and extreme heat. Positioned near the Mexican
border and the American Sunbelt, Phoenix has an heritage of immigration and in-migration that is
reflected in an eclectic and transient demography. The coupling of an extreme biophysical
environment with demographic pressures has lead to conflicts that challenge the sustainability of
urban life in the Desert. This panel will explore past, present, and future sustainability challenges
related to urbanization in Phoenix. Panelists will present research tracing challenges related to




                                                                                                  17
urbanization from early Sonoran civilization to contemporary landscapes and future pathways.
Furthermore, the panelists are members of the Integrative Graduate Education and Research
Training (IGERT) in Urban Ecology at Arizona State University and the case studies reflect
integrative perspectives that draw upon interdisciplinary knowledge including anthropology,
archeology, ecology, geography, planning, and sustainability science. The goal of the panel is to
identify common themes amongst case studies and novel insights stemming from the integrative
perspectives.

   •   UGEC0184: Crafting Sustainability Visions for Phoenix 2050; David Iwaniec, Arizona State
       University, United States
   •   0134: Interdisciplinary Approaches to Studying Prehistoric and Historic Water and Land
       Use in the Phoenix Basin, Arizona; Colleen Strawhacker, Arizona State University, United
       States
   •   0149: Are we equipped? Theoretical and methodological mismatch in applying social-
       ecological perspectives in urban systems. Kelly Turner, Arizona State University, United
       States
   •   0150: Landscapes of Experience: Lived Environments in Central South Phoenix, Arizona;
       Katelyn Parady, Arizona State University, United States
   •   0151: Urbanism, Animals, and Overexploitation: A Zooarchaeological Perspective to Cities
       in Arid Climates; Robin Cleland, Arizona State University, United States


J-B2 : Modeling and Forecasting Urban Land-Use Change: An Earth System Science Perspective
Session Location: La Paz
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Karen Seto, Yale University, United States; Michail Fragkias,
Arizona State University, United States

This session is the first phase of a two-part international workshop that is planned for March 2011
by the IHDP Urbanization and Global Environmental Change project (UGEC), sponsored by
NASA. The session will focus on reviewing and contrasting methods of forecasting of urban land-
use change and Earth system responses. In this session, participants will discuss, compare, and
contrast current urban growth modeling efforts with an eye towards improving their application
to developing country cities, and by developing new models that better capture the interactions
between the physical expansion of urban space and global environmental change. The goals of the
workshop are fivefold:
(1) to assess the state-of-the-art methodological advances in modeling and forecasting urban land-
use change with satellite data;
(2) to synthesize current understanding and conceptualizations Earth system responses to urban
land-use change, including impacts on human (e.g., agriculture) and natural (e.g., climatic,
ecological) systems;
(3) to evaluate the utility of current urban land change models for policymakers, scientists, and
other stakeholders who have an interest in the urban land cover interface;
(4) to identify research and knowledge gaps in urban land change modeling and forecasting efforts.
(5) to evaluate the performance of models as applied in the developing country city context
The workshop thus addresses a key UGEC theme: what are the pathways by which urban land use
and land cover change affects global environmental change?
During the UGEC/GLP joint day, the planned workshop leaders and selected participants will
present preliminary findings on the above themes while through a dialogue with the conference
participants, other themes will be identified for incorporation to the March 2011 workshop.



                                                                                               18
J-B3: Land system dynamics: Chinese perspectives I
Session Location: Ventana A
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Jiyuan Liu , IGSNRR CAS, China

As one of the research themes of the Global Land Project, Land System Dynamics responds to the
geophysical process and socioeconomic development while being directly influenced by human
activities. Exploration of the rationale and development of the methodologies to research the land
system dynamics will definitely need to start from case-based studies. China, with it’s rich and
varied geographical and societal environments, could supply appropriate places to identify the
factors shaping the pattern and mechanisms of land change and urban change, assess the
suitability of land uses and evaluate the consequences of change, which are indicated by the
endeavours made by the presenters for this session.

   •   0040: Analysis on the cognitions of farmers to the effect of ecological protection and
       construction project in Jinggang Mountain - Jitai Basin, Jiangxi Province, China; Quanqin
       Shao, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, China
   •   0117: Urban strategic eco-governance of coastal areas under rapid urbanization; Yangfan Li,
       Nanjing University, China
   •   0283: A primary study of Land cover change and its impact factors in Chenduo County,
       upriver regions of the Yellow and Yangtze River; Zhao Zhiping, Institute of Geographic
       Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
   •   0319: Allocation and Assessment of Different Crop-livestock Scenarios Based on Tradeoff
       Analysis: A Case Study of Yili Newly Reclaimed Area, NW China; Yang Yang, University
       of Wisconsin-Madison, United States
   •   0195: Simulating possible influence of drought transition on land use in the farming
       pastoral zone of northern China; Li Xiaobing, Land Resources, China


J-B4: Forest transitions in a global economy
Session Location: Cochise
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Eric Lambin, University of Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

The rural and urban worlds are increasingly connected by trade in natural resources. This is
illustrated by new trends in forest-cover change. While forests are still being converted at a rapid
rate globally, a few countries have managed a transition from net deforestation to net reforestation.
What factors led to this forest transition? How are these land-use dynamics associated with global
economic forces? How are urban markets influencing the fate of tropical forests? This set of talks
by some of the most active researchers in the field will illuminate these questions and provide new
insights of high significance for new policies aimed at controlling deforestation, such as REDD.
Urban consumers may hold part of the solution.

   •   0025: Local pathways to the forest transition in Yunnan, China; Daniel Müller, Leibniz
       Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Germany
   •   0223: Pathways of Agricultural Expansion Across the Tropics: Implications for Forest
       Conservation and Carbon Emissions; Holly Gibbs, Stanford University, United States




                                                                                                  19
   •   0079: Global displacement of land use and forest transition; Patrick Meyfroidt, Université
       Catholique de Louvain, Belgium
   •   0367: Heterogeneous Forest Impacts of Transport Infrastructure: spatial frontier dynamics
       & impacts of Brazilian Amazon road changes; Alexander Pfaff, Duke University, United
       States
   •   0242: Forest consolidation dynamics in the contiguous United States of the 1990s; Giorgos
       Mountrakis, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York,
       United States
   •   UGEC0170, Scale issues in the design and implementation of climate change mitigation and
       adaptation policies: a case of the forestry sector in Uganda, Charlotte Nakakaawa,
       Agricultural University of Norway, Norway


J-B5: Globalizing the case study: advantages and opportunities
Session Location: Ventana C
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Erle Ellis, University of Maryland

Local and regional case studies are the most powerful approach to investigating cause and effect in
coupled human-environment systems (CHANS). To understand CHANS as agents of global
change, global synthesis of observations and models from existing local and regional case studies
should therefore be the primary strategy, coupled with highly efficient global sampling strategies
designed to observe the most globally-significant local and regional CHANS that still remain
unstudied. Global synthesis of case study observations and models is challenged by tremendous
variation in social and environmental conditions, interactions and dynamics that vary so much at
every spatial scale and from place to place, as do the methods used to study them, which it is a
supreme challenge to "move beyond the variance of place". This session will present and discuss
conceptual, methodological, computational, and social networking approaches aimed at advancing
and accelerating global synthesis of local and regional case study observations and models.

   •   0009: Stationarity of land changes across time, category, and transition; Gil Pontius for
       Safaa Aldwaik, Clark University, United States
   •   0058: Mapping and modelling the influence of land change on the provision of ecosystem
       services; Peter Verburg, University Amsterdam, The Netherlands
   •   0245: Hierarchical Complex Systems Modeling (HCSM): A theoretical framework for
       developing a general theory of land-use systems; Nicholas Magliocca, University of
       Maryland, United States
   •   0289: Accelerating Global Synthesis of Case Study Research using a Global Comparison
       Engine; Erle Ellis, University of Maryland, United States
   •   0372: Using the MR POTATOHEAD ontology for agent-based land-use change models to
       compare and generalize case-study applications; Dawn Parker, University of Waterloo,
       Canada

J-B6: Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS) in China and Nepal
Session Location: Pima
Session organizer(s)/chair(s): Bill McConnell and Jack Liu, Michigan State University

Research on coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) has recently emerged as an exciting
and integrative frontier of cross-disciplinary scientific inquiry. However, most research in this




                                                                                                20
field has been conducted through the traditional mechanism of individual site-based projects.
Although these site-based projects have generated many important insights, it is essential to
compare processes across sites. This session highlights CHANS research from complementary sites
in China and Nepal

   •   0304: Interactive effects of conservation efforts and human activities on giant panda habitat
       dynamics inside and outside Wolong Nature Reserve, China; Andres Vina, Michigan State
       University, United States
   •   0291: Reciprocal interactions between family formation and biodiversity conservation
       programs in the Wolong Nature Reserve, China; William McConnell, Michigan State
       University, United States
   •   0298: Connecting Micro-scale Fertility Decision-making with Macro-scale LULC in the
       Chitwan Valley, Nepal Using an Agent-based Model; Alex Zvoleff, San Diego State
       University, United States
   •   0305: Evaluating the role of various forest management regimes on changes in vegetation at
       Chitwan National Park, Nepal; Neil Carter, Michigan State University, United States
   •   0296: Effects of land use change on soil C and N storage in arid and semi-arid area of
       China: meta-analysis; Jie Gong, Michigan State University, United States

J-B7 Evolving urban spatial structure and the environment
Session Location: Alumini Lounge
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Annemarie Schneider, University of Wisconsin-Madison

   •   0146: Urbanization and land use change in China; Annemarie Schneider, University of
       Wisconsin-Madison, United States
   •   0259: Forward to a post-industrial city? The evolution of the urban industrial land in
       Shanghai; Peilei Fan, Michigan State University, United States
   •   0277: Developed land conversion in the Eastern United States: 1980 to 2000; Darrell Napton,
       South Dakota State University, United States
   •   0316: Land use, transportation and Delhi's changing environment; Rakhi Parijat, Miranda
       House, India
   •   0356: Towards integrated environmental/land use planning for metropolitan regions; Ard
       Anjomani, University of Texas at Arlington, United States
   •   0369: Planning for land use and transportation alternatives: assessing the environmental
       effects of alternative development patterns in Chinese cities; Weifeng Li, MIT, United States

J-B8 Suburban and exurban land use change processes, patterns and ecological impacts
Session Location: Gold
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Tom Rudel, Rutgers University, United States

   •   0120: Land use transition and its effect on ecosystem structure, process and service: A case
       study in a rapid urbanization region, Shenzhen, China; Yu Deyong, Research Centre on
       Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
   •   0131: From middle to upper class sprawl? Land use controls and changing patterns of
       suburbanization in the Northeastern United States; Thomas Rudel, Rutgers University,
       United States
   •   0219: Exurbanization, landscape fragmentation, and changes in habitat connectivity in the
       Flint Hills of Kansas; John Harrington Jr., Kansas State University, United States




                                                                                                  21
   •   0390: Environmental dimension of urban agriculture in the municipality of Juiz de Fora,
       Minas Gerais, Brazil; Camille Nolasco, IGBP-INPE, Brazil

____________________________________________________________________

                             Monday October 18, 2010
                  10:30a.m. – 12:30p.m. Parallel Sessions (Group C)

C1: Land change and sensitive biodiversity areas
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Sandra Lavorel, Université J. Fourier, France
Session Location: Yuma

Understanding the effects of land change on sensitive biodiversity areas is a challenge to foster
sustainable management pathways. This session will examine how some different facets of land
change (climate, land use, societal transformation) affect biodiversity-rich systems and how these
impacts should be considered in order to promote sustainable futures.

   •   0331: Assessing Resilience of Arid Region Riparian Corridors: Ecohydrology and Decision-
       Making in United States – Mexico Transboundary Watersheds; Christopher Scott,
       University of Arizona, United States
   •   0145: Land use change within national parks affected by armed conflict; Guillermo Andres
       Ospina, University of Cauca, Colombia
   •   0171: Land degradation and habitat loss and its impact on biodiversity in India; Sudipta
       Chatterjee, Winrock International India, India
   •   0394: Soundscape Ecology: Impacts of Land Use on Biophony, Geophony and
       Anthrophony of Landscapes; Bryan Pijanowski, Purdue University, United States

C2: Land prioritisation: bioenergy, food, and other products
Session Location: Gold
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Helmut Haberl, University of Klagenfurt, Austria

Population and GDP growth are proceeding around the globe, resulting in rising demand for food,
feed and fibres, in particular when goals such as the eradication of malnourishment and hunger
are pursued, as they need to be. Moreover, in recent years, expectations that biomass could
contribute large quantities of renewable, low GHG primary energy have been mounting, in
particular in the face of rapidly growing GHG emissions and discussions on approaching limits of
fossil fuel deposits ('peak oil' debate). At the same time, problems such as biodiversity loss or
degradation of terrestrial ecosystems need to be addressed. This session will discuss up-to-date
empirical and modelling work to improve our understanding of the trade-offs and synergies
involved in managing global land areas so that vital goods and services can be procured
sustainably.

   •   0391: The Global Sustainable Bioenergy Project: Reconciling Large-Scale Biofuel
       Production with Other Land Use Priorities. Keith Kline, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
       United States




                                                                                                 22
   •   0086: An integrated analysis of the interrelation between food, livestock, bioenergy and
       climate change for the year 2050; University of Klagenfurt, Austria
   •   0050: Towards an integrated socioecological understanding of spatial patterns in land-use
       intensity: An analysis of global HANPP; Helmut Haberl, University of Klagenfurt, Austria
   •   0027: Integrative Assessment of Environmental Impact of Biofuel-driven Land Use Change;
       Xuesong Zhang, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research
       Institute, United States
   •   0300: Competition for Land due to Global Biofuels Production; Dileep Birur, RTI
       International, United States
   •   0143: The impacts of cultivated land conversion on agricultural production; Qun'ou Jiang,
       Institute of Geographic and Natural Resources Research, China


C3: Carbon in the land system
Session Location: Ventana A
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Cheikh Mbow, Université Cheikh Anta Diop-Dakar, Senegal

The issues which need to be addressed in this session include identifying the land carbon sources
and mitigation activities related to LULUCF (Land use, land-use change and forestry). This
involves evaluating the current methods for carbon stocks and dynamics assessment as well as the
comparative benefits of mitigation potential and cost effectiveness of carbon project under AFOLU
(Afforestation and Land Use). The session is also interested in the likely socio-economic impacts of
land systems and their influence on carbon (C) stock. The three broad categories of carbon related
activities that will frame the orientation of this session are among others, managing C storage, C
conservation, and C substitution. The C sequestration has been addressed as a good opportunity
for underdeveloped countries to both contribute to climate change mitigation and improvement of
the income of rural communities. It will important therefore to discuss the place of the various
programs under Kyoto, REDD+ and the open market such as those driven by Plan Vivo, Gold
Standard, etc.

   •   0239: Spatially explicit approach for ecosystem services management: insight from
       integrated urban-regional carbon flows in Japan; Kikuko Shoyama, National Institute for
       Environmental Studies, Japan
   •   0237: Trees for carbon and managing the ecosystem services trade-offs; Neville Crossman,
       CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Australia
   •   0261: Consequences of an altered fire regime on climate and carbon storage in arctic
       tundra ; Adrian Rocha, Marine Biological Laboratory, United States
   •   0248: The Australian Integrated Carbon Assessment System (AICAS): national integrated
       assessment of climate policy on rural land use; Brett Bryan, CSIRO, Australia




                                                                                                 23
C4: Ecosystem Services: methods, frameworks and tools
Session Location: Pima
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Richard Aspinall, Macaulay Institute, UK

This session explores recent developments in theoretical and practical methods, frameworks and
tools related to Ecosystem Services using a variety of case studies.

   •   0287: Incorporating functional diversity and social heterogeneity in the assessment of
       ecosystem services; Sandra Díaz, Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal,
       Argentina
   •   0217: Complex land and ecosystem accounting of human footprints; David Vackar, Charles
       University in Prague, Czech Republic
   •   0144: Understanding Human-Landscape System Dynamics in the Jungle Rubber Landscape,
       Jambi Province, Sumatra Indonesia; Grace Villamor, University of Bonn, Germany
   •   0090: Landscape services and locational-based indicators for sustainable spatial
       development; Jürg Altwegg, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

C5: Land system dynamics: Chinese perspectives II
Session Location: Graham
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Jiyuan Liu, IGSNRR CAS, China

As one of the research themes of the Global Land Project, Land System Dynamics responds to the
geophysical process and socioeconomic development while being directly influenced by human
activities. Exploration of the rationale and development of the methodologies to research the land
system dynamics will definitely need to start from case-based studies. China, with it’s rich and
varied geographical and societal environments, could supply appropriate places to identify the
factors shaping the pattern and mechanisms of land change and urban change, assess the
suitability of land uses and evaluate the consequences of change, which are indicated by the
endeavours made by the presenters for this session.

   •   0279: Positive Vegetation Changes in China since 2000; Dong Yan, University of Oklahoma,
       United States
   •   0389 Approaches to resources flow and its environmental impacts in China; Shengkui
       Cheng, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
   •   0251: Scales and Standpoints in the Driving Forces Analysis of Karst Rocky Desertification
       in Southwestern China; Xiang Yan, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking
       University, China
   •   0083: A Synthetic Analysis of Land-use Drivers using Qualitative and Quantitative
       Information: A Case Study in the Poyang Lake Region of China, Qing Tian, University of
       Michigan, United States

C6: Water, nutrients and food security
Session Location: Gila
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Joerg Priess, Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research,
Germany

In this session we are addressing food security issues under a broad range of different settings and
limiting factors. The papers cover drivers, such as geographic and climatic conditions (boreal to




                                                                                                 24
tropical). Thematically, one fraction of papers is focussing on water availability / water limitations,
while others are looking into constraints caused by nutrient supply / availability. Several authors
provide interesting insights with respect to the advantages and limitations of simulation models
they developed or applied in order to address various aspects of food security.

   •   0292: Shifting Geographies of Food Security: The Rise of Irrigated Maize in Sinaloa, Mexico;
       Hallie Eakin, Arizona State University, United States
   •   0198: Trade-off between the exploitation of water resources and food production; Joerg
       Priess, Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research, Germany
   •   0089: Crop and tillage system effects on water use efficiency of rainfed agriculture; Elke
       Noellemeyer, Facultad de Agronomía, UNLPam, Argentina
   •   0226: Climate variability and crop yields in East Africa: a model comparison approach;
       Pedram Rowhani, McGill University, Canada
   •   0299: The African Green Revolution: Can Malawi be "The Green Belt?"; Gillian Galford,
       Colombia University, United States

C7: Vulnerability and resilience of coupled land systems
Session Location: Santa Cruz
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): TBD

   •   0034: Putting it all together: a comparison of methods to derive composite vulnerability
       indices; Elia Machado, Clark University, United States
   •   0271: Land Use Management and Coping Behaviours with Climate Change-A case study of
       Southern Zambia; Hidetoshi Miyazaki, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Japan
   •   0366: Water and Vulnerability: Building Adaptive Capacity in Urban Areas of the U.S.-
       Mexico Border; Jamie McEvoy for Margaret Wilder, University of Arizona, United States
   •   0071: Implications of Urbanization and Land Use Changes on Life Sustainability in
       Anambra State, Nigeria.; Chizoba Chinweze, Chemtek Associates, Nigeria

C8: Environmental Disturbances in Heterogeneous Landscapes: Remote Sensing, spatial
modeling and weather extreme events
Session Location: Mohave
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Laura Schneider (Rutgers University, USA); Maria Uriarte
(Discussant, Columbia University, USA)

The seasonally dry tropical forests of southern Yucatán contain two of the most important
Biosphere Reserves in Mexico: Calakmul (CBR) and Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserves. The
conservation corridor between CBR and Sian Ka'an, the largest in extent for Mesoamerica, has
been affected by several disturbances such as hurricanes, fires, droughts and last but not least land
use change. These types of disturbances have an important effect on forest functioning, specifically
accelerating shifts in species condition, composition and distribution. Events like hurricanes are
sometimes compared to the process of deforestation with the primary difference being that this
forest disturbance agent occurs in a very short period of time. In this session will examine and
analyzed data on land cover change, MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index, forest ecology, and land
management practices to discuss the effects of environmental disturbances specifically hurricanes
on the current socio-ecological conditions of this region.




                                                                                                   25
   •   0107: Hurricane Dean's impacts to Forests in the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor Sian
       Ka'an-Calakmul, Mexico: Understanding regional variability; Laura Schneider, Rutgers
       University, United States
   •   0314: Vegetative variability in the context of disturbance events--patterns of landscape
       change in the Mexican Yucatán Peninsula before, during, and after Hurricane Dean;
       Zachary Christman, Rutgers University, United States
   •   0315: Assessment of Damage resulting from Hurricane Dean in the Yucatán Peninsula,
       Mexico, and its Connection to Fire and Land Cover Change; John Rogan, Clark University,
       United States
   •   0347: Temporal Intensification of Shifting Maize Cultivation in the Southern Yucatan and
       its Impacts on Succesional Forests; Birgit Schmook, ECOSUR (El Colegio de la Frontera
       Sur), Mexico

C9: Land use/land cover change in post-socialist Eastern Europe and Russia
Session Location: Turquoise
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Patrick Hostert , Humboldt-University Berlin, Germany

The fall of the Iron Curtain resulted in rapid and drastic changes in Russia’s and Eastern Europe’s
political, societal, and economic structures. Centralized planning economies transitioned towards
free-market systems, institutional regimes were altered, and rapid demographic change occurred.
The socioeconomic and political changes in turn affected land use, with an increasing influence of
market forces in shaping “new landscapes”. Moreover, disparities between EU-members and non-
members are most prominent. Farmland abandonment, changed forest management, and altered
urban-rural gradients are processes of great importance in this respect.
This session provides prominent examples of LULCC, its drivers and its effects on ecosystem
services and biodiversity in post-Soviet Russia, Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus. Examples span
across different scales, focus on socio-economic and natural systems alike, and are facilitated by
state-of-the-art remote sensing, land-use modeling and participatory approaches. On the whole,
presented studies provide a showcase for the role of natural experiments in LULCC research and
the need for holistic approaches to better understand human-natural systems.

   •   0030: Post-Soviet farmland abandonment and carbon storage potential in Western Ukraine ;
       Tobias Kuemmerle, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
   •   0350: Land-use changes after the Chernobyl meltdown and the collapse of the Soviet Union
       - learning from socio-economic disturbances; Patrick Hostert, Humboldt-University Berlin,
       Germany
   •   0033: Determinants of Post-Socialist Farmland Abandonment in Ukrainian Carpathians;
       Matthias Baumann, University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States
   •   0041: Land use and land cover changes in the Polish Carpathians until 2050; Katarzyna
       Ostapowicz, Jagiellonian University, Poland
   •   0345: Impact of rapid socio-economic change on land-use: detecting agricultural land
       abandonment and analyzing its drivers in post-Soviet Russia; Alexander V. Prishchepov
   •   0243: Assessment of sustainable land use opportunities on abandoned land in the former
       Soviet Union; Florian Schierhorn, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central
       and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Germany
   •   0265: Land Change in Russia since 2000; Kirsten de Beurs, Virginia Polytechnic Institute
       and State University, United States




                                                                                                26
C10: Complexities in land systems: markets and livelihoods
Session Location: Coconino
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Eric Keys, University of Florida, USA

   •   0091: Southern African livelihood and land cover change as a response to institutional and
       environmental change; Eric Keys, University of Florida, United States
   •   0344: Coca, anti-narcotics policies and land change in Bolivia: the changing roles of
       governance and institutions; Andrew Millington, Flinders University, Australia
   •   0309: Contributing a piece to the Land Change Science (LCS) and Sustainability Science (SS)
       puzzle: A proposed analytical framework of Land Governance (LG); Julio Postigo, The
       University of Texas at Austin, United States


C11: Role of Institutions and Governance in land change I
Session Location: Ventana C
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Morgan Grove, US Forest Service

There is a well-recognized need to focus on the relationships between governance institutions and
social adaptations to social-ecological change. Indeed, governance institutions can be both a cause
and a consequence of social-ecological change. However, the existing number of empirical studies
has not matched the well-recognized need. In this session, the role of institutions and governance
in land change will be examined from a number of perspectives, geographies, and contexts and its
policy implications will be assessed.

   •   0036: Promoting Sustainable Forest Management and Enterprises through Local
       Institutions in Oguni, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan; Eniola Fabusoro, University of Tokyo,
       Japan
   •   0093: Human dimensions of land use and cover changes in Southern Brazil coastal zone:
       elements for coastal management; Tatiana Silva, UFRGS, Brazil
   •   0269: Traditional land-use institutions and the biophysical ecology of landscape change in
       West African savannas; Chris S. Duvall, University of New Mexico, United States
   •   0123: Innovation in governance towards sustainable land management; Thomas Weith,
       Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Germany

C12: Land use, Land use change and associated GHG emissions
Session Location: La Paz
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Alexander Popp, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

This session will focus on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from land use and land use change
that contribute about 30 % to global anthropogenic GHG emissions. The studies presented will
discuss historic emissions but also future emission scenarios and GHG mitigation potentials at
various Spatial scales. Other issues will be the impact of land use policies on GHG emission
reductions in the transport sector.
    • 0360: Brazilian Amazonia Deforestation greenhouse gases emission estimation: taking
       spatial and process heterogeneity into account; Ana Paula Aguiar, INPE, Brazil
    • 0311: Burning questions: Landscape diversity and greenhouse gas emissions from savanna
       fires in northern Côte d'Ivoire; Moussa Kone, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-
       CHAMPAIGN, United States




                                                                                                27
•   0381: Examining fire radiative energy from biomass burning in the Legal Amazon and the
    connection with deforestation trends. Evan Ellicott, University of Maryland, United States
•   0113: Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from
    agricultural production; Alexander Popp, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
    Germany
•   0020: Towards Low Carbon Cities through Land Use and Modal Shift: A Case study of
    Yokohama. Noriko Kono, University of Hawaii at Manoa, United States




                                                                                           28
                    3:30p.m. – 5:30p.m. Parallel Sessions (Group D)

D1: Soil resources and biogeochemical cycles in land systems
Session Location: Santa Cruz
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Hideaki Shibata, Hokkaido University, Japan

The soil system is the fundamental components to support a bundle of ecosystem functioning and
services in various land systems. “How do change in land management and practices affect
biogeochemical processes in soil and the surrounding system?” is the one of the key questions in
the GLP science agenda. This session includes the local case study, regional and global modeling
analysis and theoretical study on the soil resources and biogeochemistry in land system including
the carbon and water cycles, nitrogen leaching and sediment losses to address the current status,
pattern and future prediction with their cause and key drivers.
    • 0075: Soil loss evaluation index application and comparison with RUSLE: a case study in
       Yanhe Watershed of the Loess Plateau of China; Wenwu Zhao, Land Resources Institute,
       China
    • 0220: Modeling the impact of Land use and Land Cover Changes on sediment load of an
       Urban Lake; Shakil Romshoo, University of Kashmir, India
    • 0153: Effects of land use and climate changes on terrestrial carbon and water cycles in
       monsoon Asia; Hanqin Tian, Auburn University, United States
    • 0172: Exchanges underpin a theory of land change; Alejandro de las Heras, Proyecto de
       Recuperacion del Berrendo Peninsular, Mexico
    • 0023: The impact of Land Cover Change on a large river basin with regards to erosion
       vulnerability and flooding; Shigeko Haruyama, Mie University, Japan

D2: Ecosystem Services: local to regional examples
Session Location: Pima
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s):
Convener: Sandra Lavorel, CNRS, France

Ecosystem services are a key interface between the functioning of natural systems and society. This
session will explore the interactions between land use and societal change, and the provision of
key ecosystem services using state of the art approaches from local to regional scales. Such
assessments will be linked with key regional policy questions.

   •   0125: A preliminary, spatially-explicit ecosystem services assessment for Grand Forks
       County, North Dakota; Michael Hill, University of North Dakota, United States
   •   0164: Using plant functional traits to understand the landscape distribution of multiple
       ecosystem services; Sandra Lavorel, CNRS, France
   •   0099: Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in China; Jiyuan Liu,
       Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, China
   •   0258: The importance of payments for ecosystem services as drivers of land-use change in
       Yunnan, China; Zhanli Sun, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and
       East Europe (IAMO), Germany
   •   0053: Implementing an Ecosystem Approach for Multi-scale Land Management; Carol
       Stannard, Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, United Kingdom




                                                                                                29
   •   0116: Examining the loss of ecosystem service value in response to rapid urban sprawl in
       the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan urban agglomeration, China; Chunyang He, College of
       resource sciences & technology, Beijing Normal University, China,


D3: Land systems and water resource
Session Location: Gila
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s):
Convener: Maria Uriarte, Columbia University, USA

Watershed ecosystem services such as water resources are essential for most societies and
organisms so there is a pressing need to understand the ecological and social processes that can
safeguard these services. In this session, we will explore how changes in land use change and
institutional arrangements influence the nature and quality of watershed ecosystem services.

   •   0104: Effects of forest recovery, urban expansion, and climate variability on water provision
       in a tropical landscape; Maria Uriarte, Colombia University, United States
   •   0127: Modelling the spatiotemporal development of irrigated area in the Mediterranean
       region; Ruediger Schaldach, University Kassel, Germany
   •   0241: Impact assessment of land use change on water system in the Pearl River Delta; He
       Qing Huang, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
   •   0082: Land Change in the Kenai River Watershed, Alaska: A Boreal Case Study; Shana
       Loshbaugh, University of Alaska Fairbanks, United States
   •   0249: Adaptive Water Management in the United States – Mexico Border Region:
       Agriculture and Urban Growth under Climate Change and Variability; Christopher Scott,
       University of Arizona, United States
   •   0049: Water Supply Drought Vulnerability Assessment in the Arizona Desert; Kristine
       Uhlman, University of Arizona, United States

D4: Vulnerability of land systems to natural hazards and climate change
Session Location: Mohave
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s):
Convener: Marcus Kaplan, German Development Institute, Bonn, Germany

This session will look at the impacts of natural hazards and climate change on different elements
of land systems. Presentations will focus on interlinkages between the social and the biophysical
components of such systems. Vulnerability and resilience cover different aspects, such as impacts,
exposure, sensitivity, recovery, and adaptation, most of which will be dealt with during this
session. The complex nature of vulnerability will be approached through integrated approaches on
different hierarchical levels from the household to the national. Three presentations will focus on
the impacts of the 2004 Tsunami. Climate change will increase the magnitude and frequency of
weather-related hazards and through this pathway may have serious consequences on economic
and social development. Integrated approaches may serve as adequate responses for dealing with
these challenges.

   •   0024: Interactive Impacts of Climate Change and Human-induced Soil Degradation on
       Drought and Flooding Disasters in China; Fulu Tao, Institute of Geographical Sciences and
       Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China




                                                                                                 30
   •   0276: Recovery of agricultural fields from the 2004 tsunami in Nagapattinam district, Tamil
       Nadu, India; Takashi Kume, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Japan
   •   0029: Vulnerability of Coupled Socio-ecological Systems to Natural Hazards in Coastal
       Zones; Marcus Kaplan, German Development Institute, Germany
   •   0318: Shock sensitivity, land use recovery and resilience: Lessons learned from the Indian
       Ocean's tsunami affected farmers in Tamil Nadu, India; Thamana Lekprichakul, Research
       Institute for Humanity and Nature, Japan
   •   0066: Migration and reclamation in Northeast China in response to climatic disasters events
       in North China during the past 300 years; Yu YE, School of Geography, China
   •   0387: Community Adaptation To Inundation Of Islands Induced By Climate Change: An
       Exploratory Study From Indian Sundarbans, A World Heritage Site; Indrila Guha,
       Vidyasagar College for Women, University of Calcutta, India

D5: Dryland Systems dynamics – driving forces, processes and pathways of change
Session Location: La Paz
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Anette Reenberg, Copenhagen University, Denmark

The session aims at exploring the complex interaction between humans and the environment in
marginal regions such as, for example, tropical drylands. The presentations cover a range of issues,
including discussion of recent trends in West African drylands, conceptualization and modelling
of socio-ecological land use systems, exploration of feed backs and plausible pathways of change,
empirical documentation of ecological quality, as well as research needs and the researcher-
decision maker interface.

   •   0371: The re-greening of Sahel: merging a view from above with one from below; Elin
       Enfors, Stockholm University, Sweden
   •   0246: Vegetation impoverishment despite “greening”: a case study from Senegal; Stefanie
       Herrmann, University of Arizona, United States
   •   0169: Towards modelling of land use change in agro-pastoral systems on the desert
       margins of Sahel; Laura Vang Rasmussen, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
   •   0202: Restoring degraded ecosystems in the Namib Desert, Namibia; Emily Mutota,
       Gobabeb Training and Research Centre, Namibia
   •   0185: Land use changes and sustainability evaluation- a case study in the semiarid area of
       China; Fengrong Zhang, China Agricultural University, China

D6: Vulnerability and Resilience under global warming in Asian Dryland Systems
Session Location: Gold
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Dennis Ojima, The Heinz Center, Washington, USA

Dryland (arid and semi-arid) areas comprise about 30% of earth surface. Water scarcity and land
degradation are two of the main problems for the agricultural and industrial activities in the
regional, as well as the well-beings of the people living in the dryland region. Dryland
environment is very sensitive to global warming and human activities. Semi-arid region in Asia
has the most significant change of land cover via human development. Human-induced land cover
changes in this region have generated, inter alia, further land degradation, the expansion of land
under desertification, loss of groundwater reservoirs and increased dust storm frequency. The
Ecosystems serve as an important linkage between climate and human systems. The proposed
future activities included integrated assessment of land use options, integrated assessment of




                                                                                                 31
ecosystem services and functions, ecosystem modeling, and in the end, scientific results in policy
and decision making process. Conceptually the dryland system is driven externally by the global
climate system and the global socio-economic system. Within the dryland system, there are
interactions between climate, ecosystems, and human systems. The key scientific questions of
dryland vulnerability study are: What are the evidences of climate change impacts on Asian
dryland systems? What aspects of the coupled human-environmental system are vulnerable to
climate changes in the region? What are feasible resilient adaptation strategies to off-set risks of
climate impacts?

   •   0101: Dryland research in Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS); Likun Ai,
       MAIRS IPO, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
   •   0021: Climate change vulnerability and resilience capacity in Indian drylands; R.B. Singh,
       University of Delhi, India
   •   0124: Vulnerability assessment of agricultural production to climate change based on a
       farm household model: a case study in Guyuan County; Xiangzheng Deng, institute of
       geographical sciences and natural resources research, Chinese Academy of Science, China
   •   0228: Vulnerability and resilience of pastoral social-ecological systems in Mongolia; T
       Chuluun, Department of Environmental Policy and Science, Mongolia
   •   0321: Regional approach toward an integrated assessment of coping strategies for Dryland
       Systems of Monsoon Asia; Dennis Ojima, Colorado State University, United States
   •   0334: Land cover change over the past thirty years within the MAIRS dryland region;
       Jiaguo Qi, Michigan States University, United States

D7: Scaling and Governance of the land system
Session Location: Graham
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Tom Veldkamp, ITC, Twente University, The Netherlands

Land policies have many unforeseen impacts on (agro)ecosystems at different levels of spatial and
temporal scales. Often unexpected and unforeseen temporal consequences in (agro)ecosystems
exist which find their origin in the multi-scale interactions within (agro)ecosystems. This
observation fits well within a long history of disappointments in policy and management related
to our environment and indicates that scale sensitive policies and governance structures are
required. Governance and scaling issues deserve more attention as a combination, not just in
separate studies. We look at this integration as a major challenge for both the social and the natural
sciences, in which policy makers need to be engaged as well. In order to get to transdisciplinarity,
that is to say, cooperation between scientists from different disciplines as well as policy makers
and citizens, vigorous communication between scientists from the natural science and the
humanities is needed. It is the aim of the session to present different perspectives on scaling and
governance issues.

   •   0396: Spatial-scale sensitivity in modelling deforestation patterns: issues for modellers and
       implications for policy makers; Tom Veldkamp, ITC, University of Twente, The
       Netherlands
   •   0378: Scaling and Governance: Global empirical analysis of effects of governance on area-
       and yield change, and Multi-agent modeling of food- and land price changes inducing
       governance on varying spatial scale; Menno Mandemaker, Wageningen University, The
       Netherlands




                                                                                                   32
   •   0385: From scaling to governance in agri-environmental management: bridging ecologic
       and economic perspectives; Nico Polman, Agricultural Economics Research Institute, The
       Netherlands
   •   0118: Public engagement: improving bridges between institutional arrangements and local
       actions in the Lake Eyre Basin, Australia; Tom Measham, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems,
       Australia

D8: Tools and methods for impact assessment of land use policies
Session Location: Coconino
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s):
Convener: Katharina Helming (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Research (ZALF), Germany) & Lin
Zhen (IGSNRR CAS, China)

Policies are among the most essential drivers for land use change. They come across as regulations,
financial incentives or education measures and they act at different governance levels from
international down to the specific regional level. In any case, they considerably affect decision
making of farmers, land managers and planners. Land use policies overlay external driving forces
(climatic changes, global economic developments, demography, consumption patterns) as they act
upon a variety of socioeconomic and geophysical conditions that make up the geophysical
landscapes. Reactions in land use sectors are thus complex and spatially diverse. The general aim
of policy making is to balance the correlation between economic growth and environmental
degradation while at the same time fostering social cohesion. However, impact of policy decisions
and their interactions with the human-environmental system are difficult to anticipate. Policy
makers call for scientific support in better targeting decisions and assessing the environmental,
social and economic consequences of policy choices. In the scientific scene, ex-ante impact
assessment is an emergent field of research. It usually builds upon scenario analyses of future land
use trajectories, upon which policy intervention might react. Land use modelling, indicator
systems and multicriteria analysis may then be used to assess policy consequences in specific
sectorial, spatial and geophysical settings. Results may provide and evidence base for the political
debate. This session will explore new approaches, tools and methods for ex-ante impact
assessment of land use policies at a variety of land use sectors, geographical settings, spatial scales,
and governance levels.

   •   0084: Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes in China; Lin Zhen
   •   0109: Ex-ante impact assessment of land use policies - reform scenarios of the European
       Common Agricultural Policy; Katharina Helming, Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural
       Landscape Research (ZALF), Germany
   •   0061: Analysing competing land-use claims and tradeoffs resulting from climate adaptation
       in Europe; Peter Verburg, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands
   •   0221: Sustainability Impact Assessment Tools to support the development of policies
       leading to land use change processes: the Sensor Project approach applied to sugarcane
       expansion in Brazil; Heitor Coutinho, Embrapa Solos, Brazil
   •   0129: A global change scenario analysis for North Dakota: Initial results; Michael Hill,
       University of North Dakota, United States
   •   0255: The use of scenarios and photo realistic images for understanding land use change
       possibilities; Derek Van Berkel, Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University
       Amsterdam, The Netherlands




                                                                                                     33
D9: Implementing REDD in Latin America
Session Location: Turquoise
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Ruth DeFries, Columbia University, USA

   •   0325: The potential ecological costs and co-benefits of REDD: a review and case study from
       the Amazon region; Claudia Stickler, The Woods Hole Research Center, United States
   •   0359: Land Use Change in Amazonia: Institutional Analysis and Modelling at multiple
       temporal and spatial scales; Ana Paula Aguiar, INPE, Brazil
   •   0368: Protected Areas & Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: modelling and testing the
       impacts of varied PA strategies; Alexander Pfaff, Duke University, United States
   •   0200: ProAmbiente: Initial lessons from an environmental service program in Amazonia;
       Jacqueline Vadjunec, Oklahoma State University, United States
   •   xxxx: Governance Strategies in Amazonia: Comparing REDD with multi-dimensional
       policies, Gilberto Camara, INPE - National Institute for Space Research, Brazil

D10: Role of Institutions and Governance in land change II
Session Location: Ventana C
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Morgan Grove, US Forest Service

There is a well-recognized need to focus on the relationships between governance institutions and
social adaptations to social-ecological change. Indeed, governance institutions can be both a cause
and a consequence of social-ecological change. However, the existing number of empirical studies
has not matched the well-recognized need. In this session, the role of institutions and governance
in land change will be examined from a number of perspectives, geographies, and contexts and its
policy implications will be assessed.

   •   0136: Understanding the role of actor relations in responding to environmental change in
       socio-ecological systems: The case of degrading water quality and invasive alien vegetation
       in the Berg River catchment, South Africa; Nadine Methner, University of Cape Town,
       South Africa
   •   0176: Anticipatory Governance: A New Model for Social Resiliency; Ray Quay, Arizona
       State University, United State
   •   0353: Shocks to the System: A Case Study of Changing Forests in Wallowa County, Oregon
       with Implications for Working and Managed Landscapes; Forrest Stevens, University of
       Florida, United States
   •   0352: Understanding the market for land-change information: challenges in and
       opportunities for reconciling supply and demand; Kathleen Bell, University of Maine,
       United States


____________________________________________________________________




                            Tuesday October 19, 2010
                   10:30a.m. – 12:30p.m. Parallel Sessions Group E



                                                                                                34
E1: Savanna and grassland systems
Session Location: Ventana C
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Bob Scholes, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South
Africa

Grasslands and savannas sometimes seem like 'Cinderella biomes' in the land change debate, with
all the attention going to forests. But historically, grasslands and biomes are the first to be
transformed to agriculture, with significant consequences for biodiversity loss and climate change.
This session looks at several examples, from around the world.
    • 0268: The domesticated biome? Situating humans within ecological models of savanna
       dynamics; Paul Laris, Clark University, United States
    • 0349: Effects of land-use change on the production of ecosystem services in an Ecuadorian
       páramo grassland; Carol Harden, University of Tennessee, United States
    • 0042: Grassland degradation in the "Three-River Headwaters" region Qinghai Province;
       Jiyuan Liu; Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, China
    • 0114: Quantifying ecological resilience in African savannas; Cerian Gibbes, University of
       Florida, United States
    • 0175: Urbanisation and landuse change response to climate change in the Nigerian
       Savannah; Mayona Faso, University of Lagos, Nigeria

E2: Long-term socio-ecological research and land-system science
Session Location: Pima
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Dennis Ojima (The Heinz Center, USA) and Helmut Haberl
(University of Klagenfurt, Austria)

Understanding trajectories of change in integrated land systems requires monitoring and analysis
at several spatial and temporal scales. Long-term ecosystem research (LTER) is a strand of research
aimed at understanding how global change affects ecosystems around the world. In recent years it
has been increasingly recognized that sustainability requires to extend this approach to long-term
socioecological research (LTSER), i.e. a more integrated perspective that focuses on interaction
processes between society and ecosystems over longer time periods. Land-system change is an
important aspect of LTSER and can benefit from ecosystem research carried out in LTER. This
session will assemble presentations that showcase most recent research at the interfaces of land-
change science, LTER and LTSER.

   •   0045: Long-term socioecological research (LTSER) & global land-change science: conceptual
       considerations; Simron Jit Singh, Klagenfurt University, Austria
   •   0211: The French Alps long-term socio-ecological research platform; Sandra Lavorel, CNRS,
       France
   •   xxxx: The International Long Term Ecological Research Ecosystem Services Assessment
       Initiative; Patrick Bourgeron et al.
   •   0028: Linkage between ecosystem structures, functions and services under forestry
       activities in cool-temperate forest catchments in northern most of Japan; Hideaki Shibata,
       Hokkaido University, Japan
   •   0105: Long term changes in the Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production: An
       analysis of trends and patterns from national case studies; Fridolin Krausmann, Institute of
       Social Ecology Vienna, Klagenfurt University, Austria




                                                                                                    35
   •   0386: Socioecological transitions and land-system science: an LTSER perspective; Helmut
       Haberl, University of Klagenfurt, Austria

E3: Ecosystem services delivered by watersheds
Session Location: La Paz
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Patricia Balvanera (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México,
Mexico) and Laura Lopez-Hoffman (ASU, USA)

Integrated watershed management has been a key issue for various decades given the complex
spatial and temporal interactions that occur among users of water along the same watershed. Yet,
this perspective can be further expanded to consider the management of a portfolio of ecosystem
services and using the conceptual frameworks developed by the GLP and the MA assessment. Such
broadened interdisciplinary perspective allows to understand the paramount role of water flow,
availability and quality on the provision of many of the services and the interactions among
stakeholders as wells as tradeoffs with other services. Yet, restrictions to watershed boundaries do
not match with scales and spatial configurations of many of the economic, social and political
processes associated to ecosystem management and ecosystem service delivery; also scales and
spatial configuration of sites where services are delivered to not match with those at which services
are provided.. The advantages and drawbacks of analyzing ecosystem services delivered by
watersheds from an interdisciplinary perspective are analyzed in this session through a series of
case studies. Further, the talks present new conceptual frameworks and analytical tools for
understanding the spatial nature of ecosystems, the services they provide and social processes.

   •   0234: The regulating services of water supply to the commercial traffic through the Panama
       Canal; Silvio Simonit, Arizona State University, United States and Charles Perrings,
       Arizona State University, United States
   •   0063: Developing interdisciplinary frameworks and tools to analyze ecosystem services;
       Patricia Balvanera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico
   •   0307: Social perception about river - riparian systems at Cuitzmala River Watershed, Jalisco,
       México. Mabel Sánchez, UNAM, Mexico
   •   0056: Ecosystem services, binational water management, and decision support in the Santa
       Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM); Laura M. Norman et al., U.S.
       Geological Survey, United States
   •   0393: Land use legacies: coupling a Backcast land use change and groundwater travel time
       model for watershed management; Bryan Pijanowski, Purdue University, United States

E4: Earth observation I
Session Location: Ventana A
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s):
Convener: Gilberto Camara, National Institute for Space Research, INPE, Brazil

This session presents recent developments of the use of remote sensing satellites to detect patterns
and processes of land change. The presentations cover different types of sensors and landscapes,
ranging from MODIS to high-resolution images and including SAR data. The landscapes surveyed
include areas from China, Russia, Africa and South America.

   •   0081: The Dynamic Human Footprint: How Rapid and Pervasive is US Land Cover
       Change? Mark Drummond, U.S. Geological Survey, United States




                                                                                                  36
   •   0156: Connecting Changes in Vegetation to Geography, Climate, and Land Use in East
       Africa; Matthew Williams, Virginia Tech, United States
   •   0218: Assessing Landscape-Scale Ecosystem Processes using MODIS Product Time Series:
       case studies at land validation cores site in forest, grassland and savanna; Michael Hill,
       University of North Dakota, United States
   •   0272: Extracting "land use" by object-oriented analysis, digital photogrammetry, and GIS
       analysis using ALOS images; Takafumi Miyasaka, The University of Tokyo, Japan
   •   0354: Land cover classification in Central Arizona using high resolution satellite imagery;
       Christopher Galletti, Arizona State University, United States
   •   0322: Forest Cover Change Assessment at the Global Scale; Chengquan Huang, University
       of Maryland, United States


E5: Change in shifting cultivation at forest-agriculture frontiers I
Session Location: Cochise
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Ole Mertz, Copenhagen University, Denmark

The main idea is to present a strong state-of-the-art of how rapid land use transitions in current
and former shifting cultivation areas are influencing local livelihoods and environment.
The research presented will contribute to expand the knowledge base of the global land systems
and sustainability science communities.

   •   0015: Expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia and
       implications for the environment and human livelihoods; Jefferson Fox, East-West Center,
       United States
   •   0326: Transition in a shifting cultivation system in the Atlantic Rainforest (Brazil): changes
       in the landscape and livelihoods in the last five decades; Cristina Adams, University of São
       Paulo, Brazil
   •   0080: Local environmental perceptions and social-ecological feedbacks in the forest
       transition in Vietnam; Patrick Meyfroidt, Louvain University, Belgium
   •   xxxx: Examining the disconnect between formal and informal tenure regimes in Northern
       Negros Natural Park, Philippines; Dominique Werboff, Clark University Graduate School
       of Geography, United States

E6: Population and Land Use/Cover Change in Latin America
Session Location: Coconino
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): David Lopez- Carr, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA

How are demographic processes linked with land use and land cover change in Latin America?
This session features recent collaborative work using macro ‑ scale data covering the entire
continent to case studies from more local scales addressing various angles of this compelling topic.

   •   0285: Population change in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1990-2000, a spatial time
       series; Susana B. Adamo, Columbia University, United States
   •   0286: Globalization, land cover, population, climate, and topography relationships in the
       subtropical forests of South America; Ricardo Grau, Universidad Nacional de Tucumán,
       Argentina




                                                                                                  37
   •   0288: Migration, Remittances, and Cattle: Implications for Land Use Change and Food
       Security in Central America; Jason Davis, University of California, Santa Barbara, United
       States
   •   0306: Space, Place, Population and Tropical Deforestation in Latin America; David Lopez-
       Carr, University of California, Santa Barbara, United States
   •   0310: Conservation planning using land use/cover change and biodiversity distribution: A
       case study of Michoacán, Mexico; Azucena Perez-Vega, Universidad de Guanajuanto,
       Mexico
   •   0313: Vegetation and demographic dynamics at the municipality scale in Mexico; Martha
       Bonilla-Moheno, University of Puerto Rico, Puerto Rico
   •   0330: Population and agriculture dynamics: the deforestation/reforestation of Latin
       America; Mitchell Aide, University of Puerto Rico, United States

E7: Land change in mountain regions
Session Location: Yuma
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Gregory Greenwood, Mountain Research Initiative (MRI), Bern,
Switzerland

Land systems in mountains are highly sensitive to global change if only because they are
inherently poised on the edge of a very dynamic physical setting. This session will focus on the
drivers of global change in mountain regions, their nature and their measurement, and their
impacts on good and services derived from mountain environments in four continents

   •   0177: Globalisation, Urbanisation and Land Use Transition: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of
       Western Himalaya; Bindhy Wasini Pandey, Shaheed Bhagat Singh Ev. College, University
       of Delhi, India
   •   0262: Implications of global change for high Andean biodiversity and land cover: Examples
       from Peru; Kenneth Young, University of Texas at Austin, United States
   •   0046: Linking forest-landscape and agricultural land-use models to assess climatic and
       land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in mountainous regions: A case study in
       Davos, Switzerland; Simon Briner, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
   •   0302: Modelling land use decisions with Bayesian Networks to support the development of
       robust land management strategies for mountain regions facing global change; Julia
       Braendle, ETH Zurich, Switzerland


E8: Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling Integrated Land-Change Processes I
Session Location: Alumni
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Dan Brown, University of Michigan, USA

   •   0097: Land use change as a punctuated-equilibrium process; Navin Ramankutty, McGill
       University, Canada
   •   0052: Time in land change models; Richard Aspinall, Macaulay Land Use Research Institute,
       UK
   •   0035: Handling Multidimensional Heterogeneity in LULC Changes: The Survival Analysis
       Framework; Li An, San Diego States University, United States




                                                                                              38
   •   0278: Framework for modeling effects of land use and land management processes on
       vegetation productivity and carbon storage in exurban Southeastern Michigan; Dan Brown,
       University of Michigan, United States
   •   0078: Developing a Model of Ecosocial Feedback for Multifunctional Agriculture as a
       Pathway to Land-Change Sustainability; Steven Manson, University of Minnesota, United
       States
   •   0235: Evaluating land use decision mechanisms using time-dependent global sensitivity
       analysis; Arika Ligmann-Zielinska, Michigan State University, United States
   •   0225: Examining the contradiction in "sustainable urban growth": An example of
       groundwater sustainability; Moira Zellner, University of Illinois at Chicago, United States


E9: Teaching in Land-Change science
Session Location: Graham
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Dawn Parker, University of Waterloo, Canada

   •   0348: Do transdisciplinary fields require transdisciplinary teaching? Kathleen Bell,
       University of Maine, United States
   •   0377: Teaching land change science with research questions, GIS data, and student
       diversity, sans books; Robert Gilmore Pontius Jr., Clark University, United States
   •   0351: Open-source Sustainability Laboratory Curriculum Design; Kirstie Stramler, John T.
       Lyle Center for Regenerative Studies, United States
   •   xxxx: Open ABM: Education and teaching infrastructure for computational land-change
       modelling. Dawn C. Parker, University of Waterloo, Canada


E10: Mitigation and Adaptation to climate change: agricultural and water systems
Session Location: Gold
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Alexander Popp, Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, UK

This session addresses the joint management of agricultural and water systems as coupled human
and natural systems in the context of climate change

   •   0126: Climate impacts: a meta-analysis of connections in a coupled human and natural
       system; Lezlie Moriniere, University of Arizona, Stockholm Environment Institute
       (SEI/Oxford), United States
   •   0010: Methodology for Adaptation to Climate Change: Future Management of Trade-offs in
       Agricultural Production vs. Water Quality in Korea; John Tenhunen, University of
       Bayreuth, Germany
   •   0140: Land use/cover change through agricultural adaptations against climate extremes in
       Europe; Benjamin Stuch, Kassel University, Germany
   •   0155: Innovations to improve adaptation to climate change in the agrarian Communities of
       Uganda; Daniel Luliro Nadhomi, ITC, Enschede, Netherlands; Makerere University,
       Uganda
   •   0343: Integrating watershed simulation - landscape optimization approach to climate
       change and adaptation: developing sustainable pathways for the future; In-Young Yeo,
       University of Maryland, United States




                                                                                               39
   •   0208: The response diversity of agricultural land use to climate change in Mid-Eastern
       Inner Mongolia: comparison between warming and drought; Jinwei Dong
   •   0112: The potential contribution of bioenergy to climate change mitigation including its
       costs and side effects; Alexander Popp, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
       Germany




                    1:30p.m. – 3:30p.m. Parallel Sessions - Group F
F1: Mapping and modelling land use change effects on ecosystem services
Session Location: Pima
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Dawn Parker (University of Waterloo, Canada) and Peter Verburg
(VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

The quantification and valuation of ecosystem service provision is essential to design effective
mechanisms and policies that aim at preserving ecosystems vulnerable to conversion or
degradation. Standard and overall accepted methods for quantifying and valuating ecosystem
services are not available. In quantification and modeling efforts the connection between land use
change and ecosystem service provision is critical. Ecosystem service provision not only depends
on land cover but also on the specific socio-economic and environmental context of a location and
many non-linear and threshold effects are apparent. Scenario-studies may be used as a tool to
explore the land use change effects on ecosystem service provision. This session brings together a
number of quantitative methods for mapping and modelling the land use change effects on
ecosystem services. The session intends to provide an overview of our current abilities in this field
and identify future challenges.

   •   0051: Representation and Mapping of Ecosystem Services in Land Systems; Richard
       Aspinall, Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, UK
   •   0098: Data-model fusion for evaluating ecosystem services under climate change and land-
       use change; Akihiko Ito, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
   •   0253: Locating and quantifying ecosystem services for better targeting of rural land use
       policy; Derek Van Berkel, Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam,
       The Netherlands
   •   0295: Optimizing Timber Harvest and Ecosystem Service Provision in the Willamette River
       Basin; Seth Binder, Yale University, United States
   •   0141: An integrated system-dynamic model of land-use change in Austria 1830-2000:
       concept and implementation; Veronika Gaube, Alpen Adria University Klagenfurt, Austria
   •   0154: A new model based on Cellular Automatic ingratiating ecosystem Service to optimize
       ecological land distribution-A case study for Shenzhen, China; Shiqiang Du, State Key
       Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, China


F2: Earth observation II
Session Location: Ventana A
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s):
Convener: Gilberto Camara, National Institute for Space Research, INPE, Brazil




                                                                                                  40
This session presents recent developments of the use of remote sensing satellites to detect patterns
and processes of land change. The presentations cover different types of sensors and landscapes,
ranging from MODIS to high-resolution images and including SAR data. The landscapes surveyed
include areas from China, Russia, Africa and South America.

   •   0128: Evaluation of MODIS LAI in drylands of Central Kazakhstan using in situ
       measurements; Martin Kappas, Institute of Geography, University of Göttingen, Germany
   •   0085: Integrating remote sensing and statistical techniques to quantify and monitor tea
       plantations in North East India; Rishiraj Dutta, University of Twente, The Netherlands
   •   0087: Advances in land cover classification at regional scale and a case study in the
       Brazilian Amazon with the integration of MODIS and RADARSAT data; Dengsheng Lu,
       Indiana University, United States
   •   0379: On the broadscale relationship between changes in Vegetation Phenology and
       changes in Precipitation and Temperature for Eurasia and Africa, 1982 – 2008; Keith
       McCloy, University of Aarhus, Denmark
   •   0324: Reconstruct land change history using dense time series of satellite observations;
       Chengquan Huang, University of Maryland, United States

F3: Change in shifting cultivation at forest-agriculture frontiers II
Session Location: Coconino
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Ole Mertz, Copenhagen University, Denmark

The main idea is to present a strong state-of-the-art of how rapid land use transitions in current
and former shifting cultivation areas are influencing local livelihoods and environment.
The research presented will contribute to expand the knowledge base of the global land systems
and sustainability science communities.

   •   0376: Shifting cultivation change – a global assessment of trends, drivers and impacts;
       Nathalie van Vliet et al., University of Copenhagen, Denmark
   •   0284: Bridging the gap between land cover and land use: the case of shifting cultivation
       landscapes in Lao PDR; Andreas Heinimann, University of Bern, Switzerland
   •   0294: An assessment of the extent and the dynamics of shifting cultivation for mainland
       Southeast Asia using the MODIS fire hotspots; Daniel Müller, Leibniz Institute of
       Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Germany
   •   0273: Shifting cultivation systems - carbon sinks or sources? Cornelia Hett, University of
       Bern, Switzerland


F4: ARIDnet-Americas: A Research Network for Testing the Drylands Development Paradigm
Session Location: La Paz
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): James F. Reynolds, Duke University, USA

In this millennium, land degradation and desertification in drylands of the world pose enormous
research, management, and policy challenges. Coupled human-ecological (H-E) dryland systems
exhibit adaptation, surprises, and self-organization and hence to understand their dynamics we
must identify key biophysical and social-economic linkages and feedbacks, potential tipping-
points, time lags, crucial slow variables, stakeholder needs, cross-scale institutional linkages, and
so forth. The Dryland Development Paradigm (DDP; Reynolds et al. 2007) was proposed as an




                                                                                                  41
integrated framework to aid in addressing this challenge. In this symposium, we report on the
activities of ARIDnet-AMERICAS (assessment, research, and integration of desertification research
network), a GLP-endorsed network that applies the principles of the DDP via case studies
throughout North and South America. Given that the causal H-E processes driving land
degradation have differing levels of influence in different regions of the world, and at different
times, during the past seven years we conducted 11 case study-based workshops in diverse sites in
Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, and the United States to compare and
contrast the causes and processes of land degradation. This session will present examples that
illustrate how H-S interactions and feedbacks function as complex adaptive systems, and
recommend future research priorities. There is a tremendous need for research that focuses on
elucidating the inherent complexity of H-E systems across multiple scales to enable an assessment
of the relative roles that climate, policy, management, and human adaptation play in
desertification and dryland development and thereby achieving effective, adaptive sustainable
management policies.

   •   0312: Overview of ARIDnet: Principles of the Drylands Development Paradigm (DDP);
       Amapola-Huasteca Sur case studies; Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald, Instituto Potosino de
       Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica, Mexico
   •   0365: The Quesungual (Honduras) ARIDnet Case Study: An Analysis of Changing Human-
       Ecological Relationships and Drivers of the Quesungual Agroforestry System; Miguel
       Ayarza, CORPOICA, Colombia
   •   0290: The San Luis (Central Argentina) ARIDnet Case Study: I. Social, Economic and
       Institutional Drivers of Land Degradation; Gabriela Valdivia, UNC Chapel Hill, United
       States
   •   0308: The San Luis (Central Argentina), ARIDnet Case Study: II. Biophysical Drivers of
       Land Degradation; Diego Steinaker, INTA (National Institute for Agricultural Technology),
       Argentina
   •   0329: The Mixteca Alta (Oaxaca, Mexico) ARIDnet Case Study: Applying the DDP to assess
       the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of land degradation and restoration potential;
       Jutta Blauert, CIESAS-Pacífico Sur, Mexico
   •   0357: ARIDnet-Americas: Testing the Utility of the DDP in Latin America – What we
       Learned from 11 Case Studies of Land Degradation and Desertification; James Reynolds,
       Duke University, United States
   •   0327: Sustainable Land Use Planning: a Holistic, Integrated Approach; Jeffrey Herrick,
       USDA-ARS, United States


F5: iLeaps session: How can we properly evaluate the role of land-use induced land-cover
changes in the climate system?
Session Location: Gila
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France

Recent coordinated simulations, carried out within the LUCID (Land-Use and Climate:
Identification of robust impacts) project, have shown that agreement between the models'
responses to similar land-use induced land-cover changes (LULCC) is hard to obtain (Pitman et al.
2009). Part of the dispersion can be attributed to the way land-surface models represent the
anthropogenic land (crop, pasture,). Because such vegetation changes are known to have a large
regional impact and potentially a global one, there are a number of unanswered questions that still




                                                                                                42
need to be worked on (addressed), such as: a) How well do the land-surface models simulate the
contrasts between natural and anthropogenic land (evaluation of the land models that are
embedded within the climate models)?; b)What are the respective sign and magnitude of
biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks resulting from LULCC?; c) How accurate are our global
maps of historical vegetation?; d) How well can we predict future LULCC?; e) How well do the
models agree in simulating the climatic impacts of LULCC (address both past and future changes
with atmosphere-land and atmosphere-land-ocean climate models)?

   •   0018: Exploring the interactions between climate mitigation and land use with a global
       integrated assessment model; Allison Thomson, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory,
       United States
   •   0094: Feedback between climate and the land surface is essential for the land surface
       ecosystem's resilience; Benjamin Ruddell, Arizona State University, United States
   •   0103: How will the European agricultural supply impact the net biosphere-atmosphere
       exchanges of GHG, water and energy under climate change? A modelling approach; David
       Leclere, LSCE/IPSL – CNRS, France
   •   0139: What have been the robust biogeophysical impacts of land-use induced land-cover
       changes on climate since 1850? Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France
   •   0203: Biophysical versus carbon cycle effects of historical deforestation; Julia Pongratz,
       Carnegie Institution for Science, United States
   •   0301: Investigating the Climate Impacts of Historical and Future Land Cover Change in the
       Community Climate System Model; Peter Lawrence, National Center for Atmospheric
       Research, United States

F6: Panel: Researching land use transition: pathways to sustainable land management
Session Location: Ventana C
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Anette Reenberg, Copenhagen University, Denmark
Discussants: Sander van der Leeuw, ASU, United States, Dawn Parker (University of Waterloo,
Canada)

The panel aims at exploring novel ideas and composite analytical approaches to understand land
transformation. The session will be of a conceptual and theoretical nature. It will present
suggestions of ways to design new methodologies and integrated models to analyse human-
environmental interaction, feed backs in land systems, hotspots of land use transitions and critical
thresholds in land system dynamics. Pivotal questions concern: characterization of the
socioeconomic and ecological processes that shape land transitions; improvement of bottom-up
and top-down modelling tools to be used to assess critical thresholds for resource management
with reference to land use change and ecosystem services; and which visions can be formulated for
sustainable resource management and land use policy under a range of environmental and
management conditions. A series of short presentations will take point of departure in the grand
challenges for land systems research and reflect upon issues related to e.g.: empirical and historical
analysis of human-environmental interaction; application of models to test hypothesis of land
system functioning; valuation of trade-offs between ecosystem services; and the use of land system
science to support policy. The discussion will be initiated by feedback from the discussants and
subsequently broadened to include the audience.




                                                                                                   43
   •   0252: Introducing the theme: An integrated framework to understand local-to-global
       processes of land system change; Mark Rounsevell (intro), University of Edinburgh, United
       Kingdom
   •   0215: Land-use intensification: The need for innovative concepts to analyze system
       interdependencies; Karl-Heinz Erb, Alpen-Adria, Austria
   •   0342: Using a syndromes approach to describe archetypes of land change; Tobias
       Kuemmerle, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
   •   0216: Scrutinizing decision-making structures and processes - focusing on links between
       levels; Anne Gravsholt Busck, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
   •   0230: Complementary strengths of top-down and bottom-up approaches to land use
       change analysis: linking macro-level models to agent-based analysis; Peter Verburg, VU
       University Amsterdam, The Netherlands
   •   0274: Consistent top-down modeling of land use change: from global macro-economic
       drivers to local ecosystem service provision; Hermann Lotze-Campen, Potsdam Institute
       for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany
   •   0212: Integrated models for assessing ecosystem services - towards refined assessment of
       ecosystems service response through inclusion of land management information; Sandra
       Lavorel, CNRS, France

F7: The Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) Program Partnership between
the CGIAR and ESSP: The Need for Improved Land Use Modeling
Session Location: Alumni
Session Moderators: Gerald Nelson, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington,
USA and Tobias Langanke, GLP International Project Office, University of Copenhagen, Denmark

A growing world population, with most of the increase located in the developing world and with
higher incomes, will put unprecedented pressure on world food systems. Climate change will
exacerbate the challenge of feeding the world sustain ably, altering the productivity of existing
agricultural practices as well as challenging the survival of today's ecosystems. Land use change is
a likely consequence but we have little understanding of the magnitudes and possible directions of
the changes. The new CCAFS partnership is designed to bring together the world's best
agricultural scientists with those from the ESSP working on climate change issues to address the
threats that climate change poses. This session brings together speakers from ESSP and the CGIAR
to discuss the goals of CCAFS, the need(s) for land use modeling and the opportunities for GLP
(and other) researchers to contribute to the research development and implementation process.

   •   0256: The Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) Program Partnership
       between the CGIAR and ESSP: The Opportunities for Improved Land Use Modelling for
       Global Change Research; Gerald Nelson, International Food Policy Research Institute,
       United States,
   •   short presentations by Ruth DeFries, Columbia University, United States and Robert
       Scholes, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa

F8: Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling Integrated Land-Change Processes II
Session Location: Gold
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Dan Brown, University of Michigan, USA




                                                                                                 44
   •   0166: An agent-based model of land use and smallholder resilience to climate variability in
       rural Zambia; Tom Evans, Indiana University, United States
   •   0384: Linkages between social-economic processes, land use and nitrogen flows: An
       integrated socioecological model for the municipality Reichraming, Austria; Veronika
       Gaube, Alpen Adria University Klagenfurt, Austria
   •   0002: Comparison of Three Maps at Multiple Resolutions: a case study of land change
       simulation in Cho Don District, Vietnam, Robert Gilmore Pontius Jr, Clark University,
       United States
   •   0297: Agent Based approach to spatial diffusion of adoption in an agricultural context; Irem
       Daloglu, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States
   •   0238: An artificial society model for land use change based on farmers' behaviors; He Qing
       Huang
   •   0398: Development of a Land Use Allocation Model (LUAM) for the integration of policy
       and environment; Ted Huffman, Government of Canada, Canada

F9: Institutions and Changing Land Systems in the Americas
Session Location: Cochise
Session Organizer(s)/Chair(s): Claudia Radel (Utah State University, USA) and Jacqueline
Vadjunec (Oklahoma State University, USA). Chair: Jacqueline Vadjunec

This session brings together papers examining the role of institutions in land use / land system
change across the Americas. Papers will examine institutions as drivers of (or controls impacting)
change, as per the defined meeting focus number 5, but may also more broadly assess how
institutions are embedded in linked human-environment systems such that land system change
leads to institutional change and vice versa. For this session, we propose to discuss both formal
and informal institutions that function across various scales, from multi-scale, socio-cultural
institutions (e.g. gender) to local-scale institutions governing land/resource use and access.
Participants will consider whether and how deeper understandings of such institutions are
necessary for enhancing the sustainability of land systems.

   •   0186: Land Use Change and Transnational Labour Migration in Southeastern Mexico;
       Claudia Radel, Utah State University, United States
   •   0280: Governance and institutions in Cerrado land change: Perspectives from western
       Bahia state, Brazil; Christian Brannstrom, Texas A&M University, United States
   •   0338: Extra-local constraints, changing land uses, and deteriorating ecosystem services in a
       Haitian watershed; Anna Versluis, Gustavus Adolphus College, United States
   •   0361: Of men and mangroves: institutions, mangroves and coastal livelihoods in the Estero
       Real, Gulf of Fonseca, Nicaragua; Karina Benessaiah, Arizona State University, United
       States




                                                                                                45
5. Posters
The following posters will be on display from 17th October (noon) to 19th
October and in a dedicated poster session on the 19th (9:30AM-10:30AM).
  •    0012: Land Use Changes and their Impact on Ecosystem Services and Livelihood Security
       in Himalaya; Prakash Chandra Tiwari, Kumaun University Nainital, India
  •    0019: Watershed determinants of carbon dioxide in a variety of Japanese lakes; Jotaro Urabe,
       Tohuko University, Japan
  •    0031: Forest transition patterns in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union; Tobias
       Kuemmerle, University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States
  •    0032: Projecting future food situations and impacts of biofuel policy; Kenji Sugimoto,
       University of Tokyo, Japan
  •    0064: Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS): A 10-year Research Project of
       ICSU; Patricia Balvanera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico
  •    0069: Multi-cluster city plan to make nutrient flow balance and protect city environment;
       Fengrong ZHANG, China Agricultural University, China
  •    0074: Carbon Sequestration of Forestation in Red Soil Hilly Region in Southern China; Lin
       Huang, IGSNRR,CAS, China
  •    0092: Extending Ground-Based Observations to Regional Scale with a Crop Distribution
       Generator; Bumsuk Seo, Bayreuth University, Germany
  •    0095: The Search for Appropriate Crop Land Cover Descriptions in Evaluations of
       Agricultural Production under Global Change; Bora Lee, Bayreuth University, Germany
  •    0102: Analysis governance of land use policy from the protect effects-- a case study of
       Tianjin Palaeocoast and Wetland National Natural Reserve ,China; Zhenglei Xie, Institute
       of Geography Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
       (CAS), China
   •   0108: Land Use Change in Suburban Areas with Vigorous Development-The Case of
       Kunshan, Jiangsu in China; Zomin Kiwa, Sugiyama Jogakuen University, Japan
  •    0119: Retrieval of the Surface Heat Flux over Urbanization Region based on Remotely
       Sensed Methods; Yue liu, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,
       CAS, China
  •    0137: Biogenic VOCs in the future: Can atmospheric CO2 and land-use change shift
       drastically isoprene emission estimates? Juliette Lathière, LSCE, France
  •    0142: Farmland loss and habitat fragmentation in the near absence of population growth;
       Monika Calef, University at Albany, SUNY, United States
   •   0152: An analysis of four ecosystem services provisioned by experimental residential
       neighborhood landscapes in an arid urban environment. Chris Martin, Arizona State
       University, United States
   •   0182: Identifying Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes: Case study in Bulgan Soum, South-
       Gobi, Mongolia; Yunden Bayarjargal, Geospatial Technology Transfer LLC, United States
   •   0183: Can we use vegetation index for vegetation degradation assessment? Yunden
       Bayarjargal, Geospatial Technology Transfer LLC, United States




                                                                                               46
•   0191: Glacial change in the vicinity of Mt. Qomolangma (Everest), central high Himalayas
    since 1976; Yili Zhang, Institute of Geeographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,
    CAS, China
•   0192: Sensitivity of surface air temperature change to land use/cover types in China; Yili
    Zhang, Institute of Geeographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, China
•   0194: Spatial pattern dynamics of land use in the Yongding river basin in China. Wang
    Hong, Land Resources Institute, China
•   0196: A new approach for validating modelled agricultural biomass potentials using
    BETHY/DLR and statistical data; Martin Kappas, Institute of Geography, University of
    Göttingen, Germany
•   0197: BioSTAR: A simple crop model for the assessment of agricultural biomass potentials
    in Lower Saxony, Germany; Martin Kappas, Institute of Geography, University of
    Göttingen, Germany
•   0201: Zapata wetland face to climate change. Barbaro Moya, Meteorological Center of
    Matanzas, Cuba
•   0204: Vulnerability of human-environmental systems in Mongolian pastoralism to climate
    and land use change and environmental induced migration scenarios; Davaanyam
    Surenjav, Institute for Dryland Sustainability, Mongolia
•   0206: Interaction between land use change and climate change and their effects on water
    provision in Region Metropolitana, Chile; Olga Lucia Puertas Orozco, Pontificia
    Universidad Catòlica de Chile, Chile
•   0207: The linkage between pastoralists' perspectives and vegetation threshold changes in
    Mongolian rangelands; Kaoru Kakinuma, The University of Tokyo, Japan
•   0210: Land Use Change in two watersheds under agriculture use in the mountains of Rio
    de Janeiro State – Brazil: an approach to support the agriculture sustainable planning. Ana
    Turetta, Embrapa Soils, Brazil
•   0222: Agricultural land use and soil carbon stocks in the Brazilian Cerrado; Heitor
    Coutinho, Embrapa Solos, Brazil
•   0229: Vegetation Trends Analysis in Mongolia:Using Long-Term Remotely Sensed
    Vegetation Index Ndvi (1982-2008); Dennis Ojima, Colorado State University, United States
•   0335: Response of savanna vegetation to seasonal rainfall: Land-cover change in a Kalahari
    sand woodland; Andrea Gaughan, University of Florida, United States
•   0336: Building inter-institutional scientific agendas for the governance of land systems:
    contributions of Argentina's IHDP National Committee; Susana B. Adamo, Columbia
    University, United States
•   0341: Assessment of biodiversity and ecosystem services of Satoyama, traditional rural
    landscape of Japan using common database; Toshiya OKURO, The University of Tokyo,
    Japan
•   0362: The different roles of urban agriculture: the response of farmers' markets, community
    gardens, and dairy farming to economic recession and "green trends" in central Arizona;
    Arijit Guha, Arizona State University, United States
•   0363: Modeling the Structure and Functions of Human-Dominated Terrestrial Ecosystems
    with a Hierarchical Patch Dynamics Approach; Chi Zhang, Arizona State University,
    United States
•   0375: GIS-based future simulations for cropland changes; Yang-Won Lee, Pukyong
    National University, Republic of Korea
•   0395: Assessing surface and mid-troposphere CO2 concentration and fluxes from
    grasslands in northeastern Kansas; Ferdouz Cochran, University of Kansas, United States




                                                                                            47
6. Overview room numbers
Sunday, October 17
                                  11:00-               2:00pm-
             9:00-       10:30-   1:00pm               4:00pm          4:00-   4:30pm-
             10:30       11:00a   Joint        1:00pm- Joint           4:30p   6:00pm        6:30-8:00pm
             Joint       m        Parallel     2:00pm Parallel         m       Joint Plenary Joint
Room         Plenary 1   Break    sessions A   Lunch   Sessions B      Break   2             reception
Turquise                          JA6
Arizona      Plenary                                                           Plenary
Ventana A                         JA3                     JB3
Ventana B                         Poster                  Poster
Ventana C                         JA4                     JB5                               Joint
                                                                                            Reception at
Cochise                           JA5                     JB4                               Rio Salado
Coconino                                                                                    Audubon
Gold                              JA2                     JB8                               Center
LaPaz                             JA1                     JB2
Mohave                            JA9                     JB1
Pima                              JA8                     JB6
Alumni                            JA7                     JB7


Monday, October 18
                                  10:30-
                         10:00-   12:30pm                                      3:30pm-
             8:30-       10:30    Parallel     12:30pm-    1:30pm-     3:00pm- 5:30pm     5:30pm-
             10:00       Coffee   Sessions     1:30pm      3:00pm      3:30pm Parallel    7:00pm
Room         Plenary 2   Break    C            Lunch       Plenary 2   BK      Sessions D GLP reception
Yuma                              C1
Ventana A                         C3
Ventana B                         Poster                                        Poster
Ventana C                         C11                                           D10
Santa Cruz                        C7                                            D1
Gila                              C6                                            D3
                                                                                            GLP reception
Graham                            C5                                            D7
                                                                                            at Memorial
Arizona      Plenary                                       Plenary                          Union (on-site)
Turquoise                         C9                                            D9
Coconino                          C10                                           D8
Gold                              C2                                            D6
LaPaz                             C12                                           D5
Mohave                            C8                                            D4
Pima                              C4                                            D2




                                                                                                           48
Tuesday, October 19
                                10:30-           1:30pm-          4:00pm-
                       10:00-   12:30pm 12:30pm- 3:30pm   3:30pm- 5:30pm
             8:30-     10:30    Parallel 1:30pm  Parallel 4:00pm Closing
Room         10:00     Break    Sessions Lunch   Sessions Break   Plenary
Yuma                            E7
Santa Cruz
Gila                                             F5
Graham                          E9
Arizona      Plenary                     Lunch                    Plenary
Ventana A                       E4               F2
Ventana B                       Poster           Poster
Ventana C                       E1               F6
Cochise                         E5               F9
Coconino                        E6               F3
Gold                            E10              F8
LaPaz                           E3               F4
Pima                            E2               F1
Alumni                          E8               F7




                                                                            49
50
Registration:

Saturday October 16, 2010
2:00pm - 6:00pm GLP Registration (at Memorial Union, outside Arizona
Ballroom)

Sunday October 17, 2010-10-01
7:00am-8:45am GLP Registration (at Memorial Union, outside Arizona
Ballroom)

Registration and help desk open throughout the Conference.




                                                                       51
Global Land Project (GLP)
Department of Geography
Geocenter Copenhagen, Oster Voldgade 10
DK-1350 Copenhagen K., Denmark

Tobias Langanke & Lars Jorgensen
Tel.: +45 35 32 25 08 (Tobias)
Tel.: +45 35 32 43 51 (Lars)
Fax: +45 35 32 25 01
Conference e-mail: glp2010@geo.ku.dk
e-mail Tobias: tla@geo.ku.dk
e-mail Lars: lj@geo.ku.dk
Conference webpage: www.glp2010.org
Main GLP webpage: www.globallandproject.org




The GLP International Project Office is funded and hosted by:




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