; Powergrid MOSL MAY 12
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Powergrid MOSL MAY 12


  • pg 1
									                                                                                                  Sector Update | 2 May 2012

                                                                                Capital Goods
PowerGrid's order awards to moderate; focus shifts to SEBs
Competitive intensity restricts margins of equipment suppliers; maintain Neutral
   PowerGrid (PWGR) awarded orders worth INR108b during 4QFY12, taking total awards to INR221b in FY12 (up 43% YoY).
    This was higher than our estimate of INR150-170b. However, the momentum is likely to moderate over the next 1-2 years.
   Competitive intensity remains high, but there are initial signs of prices bottoming. The transformer segment was worst
    impacted by stiff competition with prices declining by 35-40% in past two years.
   We believe the ordering pace in the T&D segment would remain subdued over the next 1-2 years. Profitability would also
    remain under pressure, thereby impacting valuations.
PWGR's FY12 project awards ahead of expectations;               the last 2-3 years. Recent trends suggest that prices
likely to moderate over next 1-2 years: During FY12,            have bottomed out and very low prices are not
PWGR has awarded projects worth INR221b, up 43% YoY,            sustainable. PWGR's increasing thrust on local
ahead of our estimate of INR150-170b. After a lull during       manufacturing is likely to benefit domestic players.
1HFY12, ordering picked-up sharply during 2H, with             We expect competition in the tower segment to
orders worth INR65b placed during the month of March            remain high. Smaller players that were aggressive
2012 alone. Large part of the projects slated for               during FY08-10 are now focusing more on execution.
commissioning in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2012-17) have         The share of the top-8 players has increased
been tendered out. Given the slowdown in investment             meaningfully during FY12.
in new generation capacity, we expect PWGR's ordering          PWGR now excludes switchgear from its substation
to stagnate over the next 1-2 years.                            package orders. We believe this has reduced entry
                                                                barriers for non-T&D equipment manufacturers in
Ambitious targets for 12th Plan, but entails capex
                                                                bidding for substation execution business, thereby
stagnation: PWGR plans to install ~65,000 circuit km (ckm)
                                                                increasing competitive intensity in a segment
of transmission lines during the 12th Five-Year Plan,
                                                                otherwise dominated by MNCs.
nearly 2x the likely installation during the 11th Plan
(~30,000ckm, target of 37,000ckm) with a targeted capex       Our view: Competitive intensity in the Indian T&D
of over INR1t (this is ~2x the 11th Plan capex).              equipment sector remains high. We believe that low
                                                              product prices, coupled with rising input costs, would
Competitive intensity remains high; but unlikely to
                                                              keep margins under pressure in the near-term. A
deteriorate further
                                                              recovery in profitability is a necessary condition for
 Aggressive bidding by Chinese and Korean
                                                              earnings acceleration, and hence, valuation re-rating.
   equipment manufacturers (these suppliers had ~60%
                                                              We remain Neutral on the T&D sector, with preference
   of the EHV transformer/reactor market during FY08-
                                                              for Crompton Greaves over Siemens India/ABB.
   11) had resulted in prices plunging by 30-40% over
Quarterly project awards by PWGR (INR b)                      Productwise order composition by PWGR
                                                                    FY12              Others 4%

                                                                  Insulator                   Transmission
                                                                     3%                         line 34%

                                                                            Reactor        13%

                                                                                                     Source: Company/MOSL
Satyam Agarwal (AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com) +91 22 3982 5410
Deepak Narnolia (Deepak.Narnolia@MotilalOswal.com) +91 22 3982 5126
                                                                                                     Capital Goods

                            PWGR's FY12 project awards ahead of expectations; but expect moderation
                            going forward
                            During FY12, PWGR has awarded projects worth INR221b, up 43% YoY, ahead of our
                            estimate of INR150-170b. After a lull during 1HFY12, ordering picked-up sharply during
                            2H, with orders worth INR65b placed during the month of March 2012 alone (a record
                            74 contracts awarded). Most segments witnessed robust YoY growth while orders for
                            substations declined 59% YoY on a very high base (FY11 orders included a HVDC contract
                            worth INR53b). During FY12, most project awards were related to evacuation of power
                            from upcoming projects in Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Jharkhand.

                            High Capacity Transmission Corridors are expected to account for 55% of the PWGR's
                            capex during the 12th Plan and most of the project awards would be completed in
                            FY13. Thereafter, we expect the award momentum to moderate as generation capacity
                            addition pace declines. After a near 6x increase in capex from INR32b in FY05, we
                            expect PWGR's capex to stagnate at ~INR200b pa from FY13.

                            Project awards up meaningfully

        Ordering activity
       picked up sharply
     during 2HFY12, with
         order awards of
   INR65b in March 2012
        alone (record 74
      contracts awarded)

                                                                                             Source: Company/MOSL

                            Increased pace of investment approvals will sustain award momentum in FY13, to moderate
                            going forward (INR B)

  65-70% of the INR391b
        projects granted
 investment approval in
   FY12 pertains to HCTC
being set up to evacuate
 power from private IPP

                                                                                             Source: Company/MOSL

2 May 2012                                                                                                       2
                                                                                                                   Capital Goods

                                Capex to stagnate post FY13, in-line with project awards / investment approvals (INR b)

   Given the moderation
     in order awards, we
    expect PWGR's capex
 to stagnate at ~INR200b
             in from FY13

                                                                                                        Source: Company/MOSL

                                Plan-wise 765kV substation capacity share to rise from 30% to 40%
                                Capacity              At the end of the plan period                Plan-wise addition
                                (MVA)             10th Plan 11th Plan (E) 12th Plan (E)   10th Plan 11th Plan (E) 12th Plan (E)
                                765kV                2,000        53,000       163,000       2,000        51,000       110,000
HCTC to account for 55% of      400kV               92,942       145,000       225,000      32,562        52,058        80,000
capex in the 12th Plan, and     230/220kV          156,497       230,000       325,000      40,134        73,503        95,000
several of the project awards   Total              251,439       428,000       713,000      74,696       176,561       285,000
will be placed in FY13                                                                                               Source: CEA
PWGR's capex composition in
12th Plan (INR b)               PWGR: 12th plan capacity addition (physical)
HCTC                    550     Transmission lines (ckm)                                                      54,000 - 66,000
UMPP                    140     + 600kV / 800kV HVDC                                                             4,000-6,000
Central Govt Projects   200     765 kV AC                                                                      25,000-30,000
Grid Strengthening      110     400 kV AC                                                                      25,000-30,000
Total                 1,000     New Substations (Nos.)                                                                  75-90
      Source: Company/MOSL      765 / 400 kV                                                                            25-30
                                400/200/132 kV                                                                          50-60
                                1200/400 kV                                                                               1-2
                                Transformation capacity (MVA)                                                130,000-150,000
                                765 / 400 kV                                                                 90,000 - 100,000
                                400/200/132 kV                                                                40,000 - 50,000
                                                                                                               Source: Company

                                Competitive intensity remains severe, but pricing stabilizing
                                Transmission towers, substations and conductors constitute PWGR's largest project
                                awards. These constituted 91% and 81% of overall awards in FY11 and FY12,
                                respectively. Substations awards stood at INR29.3b (down 59% YoY) in FY12 over a
                                high base in FY11 (included HVDC orders of INR53b). Transformer orders have returned
                                to normal levels at INR12.7b, but are still up 65% YoY despite the sharp decline in
                                prices (prices declined by over 35% since the beginning of FY09 due to increasing

                                In the following paragraphs, we present our observations on major T&D segments:
                                 Transformers and Reactors
                                 400kv Sub-stations
                                 EHV Sub-station
                                 Tower and transmission lines.

2 May 2012                                                                                                                        3
                                                                                                    Capital Goods

                        Segment-wise project awards (INR b)
                                                        FY09           FY10             FY11             FY12
                        Transmission Line                47.4           44.0             65.4            97.1
                        Substation                       24.8           20.6             71.0            29.3
                        Transformer                      10.6           11.3              7.6            12.7
                        Reactor                           2.5           12.8              2.6            13.4
                        Insulator                         3.9            9.6              3.3             5.6
                        Conductor                        37.0           14.8             29.8            53.2
                        Others                            3.2            3.6              3.7             9.8
                        RE Works                         15.2            2.7              0.0               -
                        Total                          144.7           119.4            183.5           220.9
                                                                                            Source: Company/MOSL

   Transformer market   Expect prices to stabilize; market share of Chinese and Korean players
                        coming down
                        The transformers/reactors segment saw total order inflow of INR26b, up 152%, during
                        FY12. We expect ordering to remain muted in FY13. The 765kV (EHV) segment
                        accounted for 61% and 84% of the total value of transformer/reactor orders awarded
                        in FY11 and FY12 respectively (this segment accounted for 76% of the orders since
                        FY09). The EHV segment comprises ~30% of total transformer capacity proposed in
                        the 11th Plan and ~40% in the 12th Plan.

                        We believe prices in the 765kV (EHV) segment have bottomed out and should not
                        deteriorate further because of the following reasons.
                        (1) Aggressive bidding by Chinese/Korean players as an entry strategy does not appear
                            sustainable. Chinese/Korean players have quoted prices that were 25-30% lower
                            than competitors in the past, resulting in transformer prices (765kV range, per
                            MVA) dropping by over 35% since the beginning of 2009. This, coupled with cost
                            increases, has hit industry profitability hard. We believe that such low prices are
                            not sustainable and prices would revert to normalized levels once demand picks
                        (2) PWGR's increasing thrust on local manufacturing would also compel Chinese/
                            Korean players to set up manufacturing capacity in India. For instance, China's
                            TBEA is setting up a manufacturing plant in Gujarat. We believe the trend would
                            limit the price war in the transformer market as it will provide a level playing field
                            to domestic players. China's Baoding (TWBB) is also investing INR4000m to set up
                            a 750-1200KV transformer plant in Gujarat. The plant is expected to commence
                            production by April 2013.

                        On the positive side, the market share of Chinese and Korean companies has declined
                        over the last 3-4 years. However with the maturity of technology, newer players have
                        entered the space. Chinese and Korean companies had a combined market share
                        ~60% of the EHV transformer/reactor market during FY08-11, which declined to 41%
                        in FY12. Hyosung, a leading Korean player which bagged one-third of PWGR's orders
                        during FY08-10, has not been able to secure a single order in FY12. We believe multiple
                        factors like the non-sustainability of low pricing and decreasing level of proportionate
                        mandatory import content is helping domestic players.

2 May 2012                                                                                                      4
                                                                                                                     Capital Goods

                                  TRIL - the new entrant in 765kV transformers: Recently, Transformers and Rectifiers
                                  (India) Limited (TRIL), one of India's larger transformer manufacturers, in a consortium
                                  with ZTR of Ukraine, bagged an order worth INR2b for 765kV transformers from PWGR.
                                  TRIL is the second Indian company after Crompton Greaves to receive an order for
                                  765kV transformers, and is also amongst the selected players in 1200kV.

EHV transformer/reactor market: Chinese and Korean share coming down

  FY09-10            Baoding,                FY11                 Alstom                FY12          Others, 4%
                                                    Hyundai      T&D, 3%
                                                    Eng., 12%
                                                                                        Hyundai    TRIL,        Alstom
                                                                                         Eng.,     15%         T&D, 18%
                                                                      Baoding,            2%
                       Hyosung,                                         27%
                                                         CGL,                                                      Baoding,
                         33%                                                                                         15%
             CGL,                                        28%
             36%                                                     Hyosung,
                                                                                                    26%       CGL,
                                                                ABB,   18%                                                  ABB,
                                                                11%                                           17%
                       ABB, 3%

                                                                                                           Source: Company/MOSL

     400kv Sub-station            Crompton and Siemens maintaining their stronghold in 400kv segment
                                  Competition in the 400kV segment remains very high. With increasing thrust on EHV
                                  segment, the market size of sub-EHV segment is also unlikely to increase significantly.
                                  Vijai Electricals, which was quite aggressive in FY11, has seen significant decline in
                                  order awards in FY12. Crompton has gained significantly in FY12, which we believe
                                  was driven by its aggressive pricing strategy. Siemens continue to maintain its
                                  stronghold although its share has slightly declined in FY12 v/s FY11. Given the lack of
                                  technology barriers and overcapacity in the market, we expect competitive intensity
                                  to remain high.

Sub-EHV transformer/reactor market: Crompton / Siemens maintain market shares
  FY09-10 Others 6%                           FY11                                       FY12          Vijai 5%
                                                                                 BHEL                          ABB
     6%                                                              Areva
                                                                                  6%                           9%
                      Areva,                                                                                         BHEL
                                                        Vijai                                     Siemens            12%
                       18%                              31%                                         24%
        CGL,                                                             19%
        34%             BHEL,                              Siemens                                           CGL
                         36%                                 31%                                             50%

                                                                                                           Source: Company/MOSL

       EHV Sub-station            Market getting crowed by non-equipment manufacturers
                                  The share of EHV substation in overall substation ordering has been rising during the
                                  last 3-4 years, in-line with the increasing thrust of the government. The share of
                                  765kV orders have increased to 60% in FY12 from 29% in FY09. FY11 saw the biggest-
                                  ever tender from PWGR for HVDC transmission line to the BHEL-ABB consortium worth
                                  INR53b. Excluding these, substation orders grew 63% YoY.

2 May 2012                                                                                                                         5
                                                                                                           Capital Goods

                               Traditionally, due to requirement of high-system reliability and technology barriers,
                               MNCs like Siemens, ABB and Areva, which have their own manufacturing capacity,
                               dominated the EHV substation market. However, the substation package which
                               consists of civil, mechanical and electrical works is going through a change in the mix
                               of competing players. PWGR recently eased its requirements for substation package,
                               leading to increasing presence of EPC players. The company has started excluding
                               switchgears from substation package ordering. We believe this has reduced the entry
                               barriers for non-T&D equipment manufacturing companies. Recently, Jyoti Structures
                               and Techno Electric Engineering have bagged large orders in the EHV substation space.
                               In FY12, these non-equipment manufacturing EPC players have bagged around 1/3rd
                               of the total order awards in comparison to nil orders in the past. Apart from these EPC
                               players CRG has also made its entry into the 765KV substation space with its maiden
                               order for pooling station in Raipur.

Break-up of EHV substation market
   FY09-10                                 FY11                 Alstom            FY12
                                                                 T&D                          Others      ABB
                                                            ABB   9%                           10%        10%
                                                            5%                                                    CGL
                                                                 Siemens                                          8%
                      Others                                                             Electric
        Siemens        38%                                         10%                     15%
          50%                                                                                                     Alstom
                                                    ABB - BHEL
                   Alstom                             HVDC
                                                       76%                       Siemens        L&T       Jyoti    15%
                    T&D,                                                           10%                    14%

                                                                                                    Source: Company/MOSL

Tower package market           Bigger players gaining; smaller players focusing on execution
                               During FY12, orders for tower/transmission line packages increased by 48% YoY on
                               the back of major orders related to evacuation of power from upcoming projects in
                               Chattishgarh and Tamil Nadu. However, competitive intensity in the transmission
                               tower segment remains high and has resulted in pressure on profitability. The market
                               for towers continues to remain overcrowded because of limited design content.
                               Although the order awards are based on strong prequalification norms both on net-
                               worth and project execution track record, expertise in civil construction still remains
                               a major consideration. On the positive side, foreign players continue to be absent
                               from the segment.

                               We believe competition is likely to remain high in the tower segment. However,
                               smaller players like EMCO, ICOMM, A2Z and Rajit Singh who were aggressive in FY08-
                               10, have been focusing more on execution. The market share of top 8 players, including
                               Deepak Cables and JVs, has increased from 69% over FY8-10 to 76% in FY11 and further
                               to 89% in FY12.

                               Buoyed by strong volume growth, a number of players which did not have any past
                               experience in tower installation entered this space. However, most of these
                               companies are now facing serious execution problem. This can be corroborated from
                               the fact that IVRCL, EMCO and SPIC's JVs are conspicuous by their absence. Given the

2 May 2012                                                                                                              6
                                                                                                                       Capital Goods

                                   large number of players and peak competitive intensity, we do not expect too many
                                   new players to enter, though the year saw two new players - NCC and Simplex Projects.
                                   Tower segment competitive landscape
                                                                    Value (INR m)                               % Share
                                   Contrator name         FY08-10            FY11        FY12     FY08-10          FY11           FY12
                                   Jyoti Structure         11,699             689       7,277          13             1              7
                                   Tata Projects           10,423          13,344      16,075          11            20             17
                                   Gammon India             9,963           4,055      12,676          11             6             13
                                   Kalpatru                 8,376           7,234       9,284           9            11             10
                                   KEC                      8,065           7,420       6,094           9            11              6
                                   L&T                      7,263           3,885      10,823           8             6             11
                                   JV Of EMC & Others       7,044          13,485       9,146           8            21              9
                                   EMCO                     4,834                                       5
                                   IVRCL                    3,714          3,596                        4               5
                                   JV of SPIC & Others      3,569          6,268                        4              10
                                   ICOMM Tele               3,494                                       4
                                   A2Z                      2,421            714                        3              1
                                   Ranjit Singh and JV      2,034            721        4,619           2              1
                                   Bajaj Electrical         1,717                       1,081           2
                                   Aravali Infra Power      1,604            361                        2              1
                                   Shyama Power               417          2,417        1,330                          4     1
                                   JV of NCC & others                                   1,819                                2
                                   Simplex Projects                                       626                                1
                                   Deepak Cables JVs          880                       9,782                               10
                                   Others                   3,888          1,203        6,421           4          2         7
                                   Total                   91,405         65,392       97,053         100        100       100
                                                                                                          Source: Company/MOSL

     Valuation and view            Prefer Crompton Greaves over Siemens/ABB
                                   Competitive intensity in the Indian T&D equipment sector remains high, which
                                   continues to impact pricing. Low product prices coupled with rising input costs would
                                   keep margins under pressure in the near-term. We believe ordering is likely to
                                   moderate over the next 1-2 years due to slowdown in investment in generation
                                   capacity impacting profitability of the domestic companies. We remain Neutral on
                                   the T&D sector, with preference for Crompton Greaves over Siemens/ABB.

Capital Goods: Valuation summary
               Rating Mkt Cap         CMP          EPS (INR)                P/E             EV/EBITDA (x)              RoE (%)
                       (INR b)       (INR)  FY11 FY12 FY13 FY11            FY12     FY13 FY11 FY12 FY13         FY11     FY12     FY13
ABB#          Neutral      3.5         813     3.0     8.7 17.0 272.7      93.4     47.8 198.8 64.2     30.3     2.6      7.4     13.4
BHEL          Neutral     11.1         225   23.1    27.7 25.6    9.7        8.1     8.8   5.7    5.1     5.4   31.4     30.2     23.3
BGR Energy    Neutral      0.5         329   44.7    29.3 26.0    7.4      11.2     12.7   4.8    6.7     8.3   38.9     20.8     16.4
Crompton      Neutral      1.7         132   14.3      7.1 10.6   9.2      18.6     12.4   5.9    9.2     5.4   30.5     14.6     18.0
Cummins       Buy          2.7         482   21.3    19.9 23.9 22.6        24.2     20.1 16.2 17.1      14.5    35.5     30.0     33.5
L&T           Buy         14.9       1,226   69.7    75.1 83.6 17.6        16.3     14.7 14.2 12.5      11.7    18.3     17.6     15.6
Siemens##     Neutral      5.4         775   25.1    22.4 29.1 30.9        34.6     26.6 18.4 20.3      15.2    23.2     18.9     22.1
Thermax       Neutral      1.0         446   32.0    34.4 34.5 13.9        13.0     12.9   8.5    7.3     7.2   31.9     28.1     23.6
Havells       Buy          1.4         555   22.0    29.9 39.1 25.2        18.6     14.2 15.0 11.4        9.0   42.0     38.8     35.5
# Year end December; ## Year end     September                                                                          Source:   MOSL

2 May 2012                                                                                                                           7
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