MPHASIS KOTAK JUNE 12 by icestar

VIEWS: 13 PAGES: 6

									                                                                                                          JUNE 11, 2012




Economy News                                                                      Equity
 The Finance Ministry has objected to the Commerce Ministry's proposal of                                                             % Chg
  lowering the minimum land area criterion for Special Economic Zones                                         8 Jun 12       1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths
  (SEZs). (BL)
                                                                                  Indian Indices
 The government will decide if incumbent telecom operators like Airtel,          SENSEX Index                  16,719           0.4        2.6      (4.5)
  Vodafone and Tata Teleservices have to pay a market-discovered price for        NIFTY Index                    5,068           0.4        2.8      (5.0)
  the spectrum they currently hold. (BS)                                          BANKEX Index                  11,514           0.5        6.3      (4.7)
 The power ministry is set to refer the issue of cost escalations and price      BSET Index                     5,617         (0.7)        2.5      (8.4)
  pass-throughs to the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC).          BSETCG INDEX                   9,486           1.8        7.7      (6.9)
  (BS)                                                                            BSEOIL INDEX                   7,781           0.5        3.1      (6.7)
                                                                                  CNXMcap Index                  7,034           0.4        0.7      (8.5)
 Natural gas reserves in Mozambique's oil-rich Rovuma Basin, where Indian
                                                                                  BSESMCAP INDEX                 6,326           0.2      (1.1)      (6.3)
  companies hold stakes, are expected to rise dramatically with a giant new
  discovery, catapulting the African nation to the league of the world's top      World Indices
  gas exporters and boosting India's energy security. (ET)                        Dow Jones                     12,554           0.7      (2.1)      (2.8)
                                                                                  Nasdaq                         2,858           1.0      (2.6)      (4.3)
Corporate News                                                                    FTSE                           5,435         (0.2)      (2.5)      (7.7)
                                                                                  NIKKEI                         8,459         (2.1)      (3.6)     (13.1)
 Havells India is mulling over acquisitions in China and Africa that may         HANGSENG                      18,502         (0.9)      (5.4)     (10.4)
  entail an investment of up to $200 million (about Rs 11 bn) to strengthen
  its overseas operations. (BL)                                                   Value traded (Rs cr)
                                                                                                                         8 Jun 12        % Chg - Day
 Apollo Hospitals plans to invest nearly Rs 19.4 bn to add another 2,955
  beds across the country in the next three years. (BL)                           Cash BSE                                    1,916                  (9.2)
                                                                                  Cash NSE                                    9,741                  (8.8)
 Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) will be increasing the monthly
                                                                                  Derivatives                               105,098                  16.1
  production of its hot-selling sports utility vehicle XUV500 to 5,000 units by
  around September-October. (BL)                                                  Net inflows (Rs cr)
 Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) may not join hands with steel                                       7 Jun 12       % Chg          MTD          YTD
  maker Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL) and MECON Ltd for the                FII                          741          337.8       (432)     41,515
  proposed Rs 20 bn joint venture that plans to set up a factory at Vizag for     Mutual Fund                    5          (99.0)        820     (5,534)
  manufacturing steel for core sectors. (BS)
                                                                                  FII open interest (Rs cr)
 Jindal Steel and Power Ltd (JSPL), part of the $15-billion O P Jindal
  Group wants to pull out of its $2.1-billion Bolivian venture blaming that                                              7 Jun 12                 % Chg
  nation's government for failure to meet contractual commitments. (BS)           FII   Index   Futures                      8,638                    1.1
 British Gas may have agreed to lower its asking price from Rs 45 bn for         FII   Index   Options                     38,976                    2.5
  stake sale in Gujarat Gas. (BS)                                                 FII   Stock   Futures                     22,440                    1.3
                                                                                  FII   Stock   Options                      1,025                    9.2
 Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) is in the process of rolling out all its models
  under the "Hero" brand name, two years ahead of the deadline.(ET)               Advances / Declines (BSE)
                                                                                  8 Jun 12                A          B          T       Total % total
 Suzlon Energy is likely to get a breather today when its foreign currency
  bond holders may approve of the 45-day repayment extension sought by            Advances            112        968         289        1,369          50
  the loss-making wind turbine maker, saving it from default. (ET)                Declines             91        890         284        1,265          46
                                                                                  Unchanged             1         80          35          116           4
 Bharat Forge, the world's largest forging manufacturer, is in talks to buy
  out a significant stake in Coimbatore-based Shanthi Gears, India's second-      Commodity                                            % Chg
  largest industrial-gear box maker. (ET)
                                                                                                              8 Jun 12 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths
 Future group is not in talks with anybody to sell stake in Big Bazaar and
  Food Bazaar chains because the group has sorted out its debt crisis after       Crude (NYMEX) (US$/BBL) 86.1                   2.3    (10.5)      (19.9)
  three back-to-back deals in the past one month.(ET)                             Gold (US$/OZ)          1,587.7               (0.3)       0.7       (6.7)
                                                                                  Silver (US$/OZ)           28.5               (0.8)     (0.7)      (16.0)

                                                                                  Debt / forex market
                                                                                                              8 Jun 12 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths

                                                                                  10 yr G-Sec yield %                8.35      8.35       8.56       N/A
                                                                                  Re/US$                             55.5      54.9       53.1       50.3

                                                                                  Sensex
                                                                                   19,800

                                                                                   18,200

                                                                                   16,600

                                                                                   15,000
Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express,            Jun-11        Sep-11         Dec-11          Mar-12       Jun-12
BL = Business Line, ToI: Times of India, BSE = Bombay Stock Exchange
            MORNING INSIGHT                                                                                                             June 11, 2012



RESULT UPDATE                                    MPHASIS BFL LTD
Dipen Shah
dipen.shah@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6301                                 PRICE: RS.355                                                     RECOMMENDATION: REDUCE
                                                 TARGET PRICE: RS.372                                                      FY12E P/E: 9.7X
                                                 We recommend selling at each incline. A buyback at significantly
                                                 higher price or de-listing, if any, are the risks to our call.
                                                  Mphasis’ 2QFY12 results were below expectations. USD revenues fell by
                                                    more than 2.5% QoQ and were significantly below our expectations.
                                                    Even after excluding the impact of the pass-through revenues in 1Q (2%
                                                    of revenues), USD revenues were almost flat. What was more disappoint-
                                                    ing was the fact that, direct (non-HP) revenues also fell by 2.6% QoQ,
                                                    due to lower license fees. EBIDTA margins were higher by 130bps QoQ
                                                    largely due to reduction in number of employees and the pyramid im-
                                                    pact, apart from better utilization of resources. Employee strength has
                                                    fallen for the 4th straight quarter, likely reflecting the limited revenue
                                                    visibility. The company has reduced the guidance for non-HPES revenues.

Summary table                                     Realisations were almost flat but pyramid mix changes and currency
                                                   volatility had a marginal impact. Onsite ITO realisations were sharply
(Rs mn)             FY10      FY11     FY12E
                                                   down, though. Non-HP channel business added 14 clients in 1Q. Any
Sales               50,365   50,980    54,991      slowdown in the Enterprise Solutions business may have a bearing on
Growth (%)            18.1       1.2       7.9     Mphasis’ revenue growth in the next few quarters. The management has
EBITDA              12,648    9,845    10,582      also reduced the guidance and expects the non-ES business from HP to
EBITDA margin (%) 25.1          19.3     19.2      about $60mn from $100mn two quarters back and from $75-80mn in 1Q.
PBT                 12,104   10,045    10,037
                                                   Also, if this business does not flow in from developed economies, it may
Net profit          10,912    8,218     7,705
                                                   be margin-dilutive.
EPS (Rs)              52.0      39.1     36.7
Growth (%)            19.9    (24.8)     (6.3)    For FY12E, we expect earnings to come down on a YoY basis to Rs.36.7
CEPS (Rs)             59.8      46.5     45.6      per share, due to the uncertain macro and the uncertainties within HP.
BV (Rs/share)        157.2    185.1     215.1
                                                   FY11 also contained several reversals of provisions (nearly Rs.1.12bn) and
Dividend / share (Rs) 4.0        6.5       6.5
                                                   one-time revenues of Rs.665mn, which we do not expect to recur in
ROE (%)               38.7      22.9     18.3
ROCE (%)              42.5      26.7     22.2
                                                   FY12. Our PT stands marginally changed to Rs.372 (Rs.379). Our DCF
Net cash (debt)     15,930   17,737    24,760      based price target leads us to a target FY12E PE of 10x. We maintain RE-
NW Capital (Days)     87.4      93.6     86.8      DUCE. A potential buy-back offer / de-listing from HP can provide upsides
P/E (x)                6.8       9.1       9.7     to the stock.
P/BV (x)               2.3       1.9       1.7
EV/Sales (x)           1.2       1.1       0.9
                                                  Delayed recovery of developed economies and a sharp rupee appreciation
EV/EBITDA (x)          4.6       5.8       4.7     are key downside risks to our estimates.
Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private
Client Research                                  2QFY12 results
                                                 (Rs.mn)                              1QFY12             2QFY12     QoQ (%)       2QFY11         YoY (%)

                                                 Turnover                                13,672           13,289        -2.8         12,571          5.7
                                                 Expenditure                             11,150           10,675                     10,164
                                                 EBIDTA                                  2,522            2,614          3.6         2,407           8.6
                                                 Depreciation                                468            455                         338
                                                 EBIT                                    2,054            2,159          5.1         2,069           4.3
                                                 Interest                                      0              0                            0
                                                 ESOP/EO expns                                 0              0                            0
                                                 Other Income                                338            340                         497
                                                 PBT                                     2,392            2,499         4.5          2,566          -2.6
                                                 Tax                                         544            605                         393
                                                 PAT                                     1,848            1,894          2.5         2,173         -12.8
                                                 Shares (mns)                                210            210                         210
                                                 EPS (Rs)                                    8.8            9.0                        10.3
                                                 Margin (%)
                                                 EBDITA                                     18.4            19.7                       19.1
                                                 EBIT                                       15.0            16.2                       16.5
                                                 PAT                                        13.5            14.3                       17.3

                                                 Source : Company; Fiscal year - November - October




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            MORNING INSIGHT                                                                                           June 11, 2012



                                             Revenues – USD revenues down by about 2.5%
                                              USD revenues fell by about 2.5% QoQ. This was partly due to the 2% pass-
                                               through revenues present in 1Q. Excluding these, revenues were marginally
                                               lower QoQ.
                                              HP-led revenues fell by 2.8%. This was largely expected as the ES revenues
                                               have been under strain. The management indicated that, 4 accounts had scaled
                                               down during the quarter.
                                              With the Enterprise Services business witnessing stagnation / de-growth, Mphasis
                                               has been trying to penetrate the other businesses of HP namely professional Ser-
                                               vices and Technology services.
                                              Revenues from non-ES business were higher QoQ. However, they have failed to
                                               scale up at the desired pace. The management has reduced the annual guid-
                                               ance for non-ES revenues to $55-60mn as compared to $100mn at the start of
                                               the fiscal and $75-80mn guidance given at the end of the previous quarter.
                                              On the other hand, the company is trying to scale up its independent business, to
                                               reduce the dependence on HP.
                                              However, even the non-HP revenues fell by a similar margin during the quarter.
                                               This was due to lower license revenues, which fell by about $2.3mn QoQ. Even
                                               after accounting for this, revenues were almost flat.
                                              The contribution of HP-led business has reduced to about 59% of overall rev-
                                               enues from 68% in the corresponding previous quarter.
                                              Mphasis has been focusing on the non-HP business over the past few quarters
                                               and has indicated additional spends to garner more business from non-HP chan-
                                               nels.
                                              The company added 14 new accounts from the independent channel during the
                                               quarter.
                                              The average realisations were almost stable on a like-to-like basis, according to
                                               the management. The pyramid impact and currency fluctuations had a marginal
                                               impact, though.
                                              However, on-site ITO realisations fell sharply, which is of concern to us.
                                              We understand that, Mphasis has decided not to accept any further cuts, beyond
                                               what is market-determined. The management had cited its own costs and the
                                               value provided to HP, as the reasons for resisting the cuts.
                                              We view this step positively as the past few quarters have seen Mphasis ceding
                                               to all directions of rate cuts. While further pressure from HP is expected (looking
                                               at HP’s own challenges), we believe that, Mphasis may not reduce rates further
                                               at the current margin levels.
                                              Within the HP revenues, migration, internal work and go-to-market (third party)
                                               business form approximately 30%, 15% and 55% of the company’s total rev-
                                               enues, respectively.
                                              Mphasis bills HP on either rate card basis (migration and internal work) and go-
                                               to-market basis (40% of revenues)
                                              During the previous fiscal, the rate card business, which was on a cost-plus basis,
                                               was moved on to fixed rates, which will be reviewed periodically. Thus, the fixed
                                               margin business has seen and will see volatility in margins depending on the ef-
                                               ficiencies of the company and the external environment.
                                              On the other hand, in the go-to-market business, Mphasis is passed on the rev-
                                               enues by HP, after charging a commission for the business transferred, we under-
                                               stand.
                                              We understand that, from 3QFY10, the amount received by Mphasis has been
                                               relatively lower. The remuneration to Mphasis also obviously changes depending
                                               on the contract between HP and the client.



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            MORNING INSIGHT                                                                                           June 11, 2012



                                             EBIDTA margins higher
                                              EBIDTA margins were higher by 130bps QoQ.
                                              The improvement came in largely due to the reduction in employee strength,
                                               pyramid impact and and operational efficiencies.
                                              The company had limited impact of the rupee movement. It has indicated that,
                                               about 37% of revenues accrued in INR – 11% from India and about 27% in INR
                                               terms (largely HP revenues). This limits the impact of currency fluctuations. Every
                                               1% change in exchange rate impacts its margins by about 10bps only.
                                              The total number of employees reduced by about 4% and this was the fourth
                                               successive quarter of reduction. While it has helped margins, it also reflects to an
                                               extent, on the revenue visibility for the company.

                                             18 new clients added; focus on independent channel
                                              During the quarter, the company signed up 18 new accounts of which, 14 addi-
                                                tions came from the independent efforts of Mphasis and 4 from HP.
                                              Thus, while HP continues to help Mphasis get into new accounts, Mphasis is now
                                               increasingly focusing on reducing its dependence on HP for new business.
                                              At the same time, it sees bigger opportunities with HP but beyond the Enterprise
                                               Solutions business, from which it is currently earning more than 90% of its HP
                                               revenues.
                                              The company sees opportunities in the technology Services and Professional Ser-
                                               vices businesses of HP.
                                              Mphasis is focusing on the direct marketing channel for non-HP accounts and
                                               plans to add to its sales force for the same.

                                             Future prospects
                                              We have made changes to our FY12 estimates.
                                              In FY12, we expect revenues to grow by about 8%. The current macro environ-
                                               ment and the uncertainty within HP makes us cautious on the overall revenue
                                               growth trajectory of Mphasis.
                                              We expect the rupee to average 52 / USD in 2HFY12.
       We maintain REDUCE on                  Margins are expected to be flat in FY12 v/s FY11. While the higher S&M spend
  Mphasis BFL with a price target              and salary increments (8% on-site and 2% off-shore) are expected to impact the
                        of Rs.372              profitability, expected rupee depreciation, better resources utilization, higher
                                               employee utilization, pyramid effect, consolidation of delivery centres and higher
                                               value-added work are expected to restrict the impact.
                                              We also note that, FY11 contained about Rs.1.12bn worth of provision write-
                                               backs and Rs.665mn of one-time revenue, which kept margins relatively high.
                                              With a higher tax rate of about 23% in FY12 v/s 18% in FY11, earnings are
                                               expected to fall by about 6% in FY12 over and above a 25% drop in FY11.

                                             Concerns
                                              A delayed recovery in the developed economies may impact our projections.
                                              A sharp acceleration in rupee from the current levels may impact our earnings
                                               estimates for the company.
                                              While strong parentage is a positive, uncertainty over future allocation of busi-
                                               ness remains a concern for the market.




Kotak Securities - Private Client Research           Please see the disclaimer on the last page      For Private Circulation      4
            MORNING INSIGHT                                                                                                   June 11, 2012



            Bulk deals                       Trade details of bulk deals
                                             Date    Scrip name             Name of client                      Buy/    Quantity       Avg.
                                                                                                                Sell    of shares      price
                                                                                                                                        (Rs)

                                             8-Jun   Aadi Inds              Advance India Shares & Securities      B        100,000      9.4
                                             8-Jun   Aadi Inds              Anuj Garg                               S       100,000      9.4
                                             8-Jun   Amarjothi Spin         Jaichander .                           B        607,500     48.4
                                             8-Jun   Amarjothi Spin         Amarjothi Colour                        S       607,500     48.4
                                             8-Jun   Bhandari Hos           Ganpati Infratech Pvt Ltd              B          55,700    45.6
                                             8-Jun   Bhandari Hos           Rajeev Nigam                            S         55,275    45.6
                                             8-Jun   Choice Intl            Manasvi Consultancy Pvt Ltd            B          46,450    35.6
                                             8-Jun   Crazy Infotech         M Vanjiappan                           B        501,404      0.2
                                             8-Jun   Croitre Inds           Saurabh Jain                           B          36,000   113.3
                                             8-Jun   Dazzel Conf            Ashwani Khurana                         S     1,264,295      2.6
                                             8-Jun   Devika Prot            Parikh Shilpa Mihir                    B          52,000     4.0
                                             8-Jun   Fiberweb India         Sulochnadevi Anilkumar Agarwal         B          67,500     7.3
                                             8-Jun   Fiberweb India         Ashish Kashiprasad Kanodia              S         67,509     7.3
                                             8-Jun   Gujarat Medi           Brijesh Ashokbhai Halari               B          22,719    49.4
                                             8-Jun   Gujarat Narm Fly Neha Bipin Patel                             B          35,090    41.8
                                             8-Jun   IFL Promoters          Advance India Shares & Securities       S       181,800      6.2
                                             8-Jun   Jaihind Syn            Tarunkumar Gurucharan Brahmbhatt B                24,000    15.0
                                             8-Jun   Jaihind Syn            Paresh Dhirajlal Shah                   S         24,000    15.0
                                             8-Jun   Jayant Merc            Rashmikaben N Amin                     B        100,000      3.1
                                             8-Jun   Jayant Merc            Hareshkumar Prabhulal Raghwani         B        130,000      3.1
                                             8-Jun   Jayant Merc            Urmil Chandragupta Mehta               B        200,000      3.1
                                             8-Jun   Jayant Merc            A Chauhan Chandrasinh                  B        145,000      3.1
                                             8-Jun   Jayant Merc            Laxmidevi Gopikumar Singhania           S       705,201      3.1
                                             8-Jun   Osian Inds             Umesh Dayasankar Dubey                 B          40,000   144.4
                                             8-Jun   Parichay Invest        Elesh H Sanghvi (Huf)                  B           6,000   158.0
                                             8-Jun   Parichay Invest        Jhaveri Sanjeev Burman                 B          21,429   158.0
                                             8-Jun   Parichay Invest        Vipul Virendrakumar Patel               S         14,680   158.0
                                             8-Jun   Parichay Invest        Jigar Rasiklal Patel                    S          6,200   158.0
                                             8-Jun   Polytex India          Bhupesh Harishchandra Rathod            S         85,500   170.3
                                             8-Jun   Ranklin Sol-$          Kamlesh Joshi Huf                      B          36,000     5.8
                                             8-Jun   Ranklin Sol-$          Lakshmi Narayana Tadepalli              S         32,702     5.6
                                             8-Jun   Ravi Kumar Dist        Chandrashekhar Nathalal Trivedi         S       200,000      9.4
                                             8-Jun   Shreychem              Arsenal Finstock Services Pvt Ltd       S         39,636    60.7
                                             8-Jun   Shreychem              Togadiya Hareshbhai Madhabhai           S         39,825    60.1
                                             8-Jun   Sunlake Resorts        Avir Suresh Kumar Shah                 B          67,200     5.7
                                             8-Jun   Sunlake Resorts        Nelesh Devendra Vora                    S         67,200     5.7
                                             8-Jun   Sybly Inds-$           Parveen Kumar                           S     3,500,000      0.4

                                             Source: BSE




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             MORNING INSIGHT                                                                                                                     June 11, 2012



       Gainers & Losers                           Nifty Gainers & Losers
                                                                                       Price (Rs)           chg (%)          Index points          Volume (mn)

                                                  Gainers
                                                  L&T                                        1,309                 2.7                     5.9                   2.6
                                                  ITC Ltd                                       239                1.2                     4.9                   4.7
                                                  Reliance Ind                                  730                1.2                     4.6                   2.9
                                                  Losers
                                                  Infosys                                    2,419               (1.4)                   (5.2)                   0.7
                                                  ONGC                                          259              (1.8)                   (2.7)                   3.8
                                                  TCS                                        1,231               (0.8)                   (1.5)                   1.2

                                                  Source: Bloomberg


Fundamental Research Team
Dipen Shah                                Saurabh Agrawal                           Ruchir Khare                               Amit Agarwal
IT, Media                                 Metals, Mining                            Capital Goods, Engineering                 Logistics, Transportation
dipen.shah@kotak.com                      agrawal.saurabh@kotak.com                 ruchir.khare@kotak.com                     agarwal.amit@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6301                          +91 22 6621 6309                          +91 22 6621 6448                           +91 22 6621 6222
Sanjeev Zarbade                           Saday Sinha                               Ritwik Rai                                 Jayesh Kumar
Capital Goods, Engineering                Banking, NBFC, Economy                    FMCG, Media                                Economy
sanjeev.zarbade@kotak.com                 saday.sinha@kotak.com                     ritwik.rai@kotak.com                       kumar.jayesh@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6305                          +91 22 6621 6312                          +91 22 6621 6310                           +91 22 6652 9172
Teena Virmani                             Arun Agarwal                              Sumit Pokharna                             K. Kathirvelu
Construction, Cement, Mid Cap             Automobiles                               Oil and Gas                                Production
teena.virmani@kotak.com                   arun.agarwal@kotak.com                    sumit.pokharna@kotak.com                   k.kathirvelu@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6302                          +91 22 6621 6143                          +91 22 6621 6313                           +91 22 6621 6311


Technical Research Team
Shrikant Chouhan                          Amol Athawale                             Premshankar Ladha
shrikant.chouhan@kotak.com                amol.athawale@kotak.com                   premshankar.ladha@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6360                          +91 20 6620 3350                          +91 22 6621 6261


Derivatives Research Team
Sahaj Agrawal                             Rahul Sharma                              Malay Gandhi                               Prashanth Lalu
sahaj.agrawal@kotak.com                   sharma.rahul@kotak.com                    malay.gandhi@kotak.com                     prashanth.lalu@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6343                          +91 22 6621 6198                          +91 22 6621 6350                           +91 22 6621 6110

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