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ANALYST MEET - 31 May 2012 final

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ANALYST MEET - 31 May 2012 final Powered By Docstoc
					ANALYST MEET
31 May, 2012
Today’s Discussion…



   Market Overview

   Activities

   Performance

   Way Ahead
MARKET OVERVIEW
Highlights
    India’s Total Installed Generation Capacity – 201637 MW (April, 2012)
                      24503
               4780                                                      1200
                                                             18381
       38990


                                          133363
                                                                                 113782


       Thermal         Hydro   Nuclear   Renewable            Coal     Gas      Diesel

                                               Target Vs. Achievement in FY12 (MW)
   Energy Deficit (FY12) – 8.5%
                                                   Sector     Target     Achievement
   Peak Deficit (FY12) – 10.6%                                (MW)      MW           %
                                                   Central      5285     4770             90
   Private Sector accounted for 41% of the
   total capacity addition in 11th plan and        State        4296     3474             81
   58% in FY12 - share of private sector in        Private      8135    11445            141
   installed generation capacity increased
                                                   Total       17716    19689            111
   from ~12% to ~28%
                                                                                   Source: CEA
Power Market Over Last Two Fiscals
                                                                •PX uncertain
                                                               •Margin money
                            Growth for Different Components of ST Market
                                                                 requirement
        Year            Total Volume     Bilateral (Traders         Direct              PX         UI          ST Volume
                            in ST             + TAM)               Bilateral                                   without UI
 2010-11 (MU)               81557.33              29683.38          10254.94       13540.74       28078.27       53479.06
 2011-12 (MU)               94512.10              36560.95          15371.61       14821.70       27757.82       66754.28
 Growth (%)                     15.88                  23.17            49.89            9.46        -1.14           24.82




                      2010-11                                                                   2011-12

              34.43             36.4                   Share of                         29.37                38.68
                                                       Different
                                                      Segments
                                                      in Total ST                 15.68
                16.6        12.57
                                                       Volume                                      16.26


                             Bilateral (Traders + TAM)         Direct Bilateral     PX       UI
                                        Source: CERC Market Monitoring Cell’s reports
Bilateral vs PX Prices (Rs. /kWh)
                                                                                                 Bilateral
                         Bilateral vs PX Prices (2011-12)
                                                                                                 PX
6
5                                                                                                   Buyers
4                                                                                                 ready to
3                                                                                                    pay
2                                                                                                 premium
1                                                                                                    for
0                                                                                                certainty in
     Apr   May   Jun   Jul     Aug     Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec      Jan       Feb   Mar    Bilateral
                                                                                                  contracts
                             Bilateral vs PX Prices (2010-11)
                                                                                                   Bilateral
10
                                                                                                 prices more
 8
                                                                                                    or less
 6                                                                                                  stable
 4                                                                                               whereas PX
 2                                                                                                  prices
 0                                                                                                  highly
     Apr   May   Jun   Jul     Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec      Jan      Feb   Mar     volatile
                                     Source: CERC Market Monitoring Cell’s reports
The Sectoral Developments

   Aptel’s Judgment
       Directed all State Electricity Regulatory Commissions
       (SERCs) to decide tariff before 1st April of particular
       year and initiate suo motu proceedings in case
       discoms failed to file tariff petitions
   Ministry of Law’s Opinion on Open Access (OA)
      Consumers of load more than 1 MW are deemed OA
      customers and cannot be denied OA
   MoPs directive to CERC
      Directed CERC to take all necessary steps, including
      framing of appropriate Regulations to implement the
      provisions of OA as contained in EA 2003
   Shunglu Committee’s Report
       Suggested setting up of a Special Purpose Vehicle
       (SPV) to buy out distressed debts of banks to discoms
       on certain preconditions
   Tariff Revisions
       Many States like Delhi, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Tamil
       Nadu, Bihar etc. have hiked tariffs since April 2011
OUR ACTIVITIES
Power Trading



   25000                                                                                 24481    24325


   20000                                                                         18236


   15000                                                                 13825
                                   11029
                                                   10119 9549     9889
   10000                                    8887


    5000                    4178
                    1617
            44
       0
           FY01    FY02    FY03    FY04    FY05    FY06   FY07   FY08    FY09    FY10    FY11    FY12



                  PTC has traded more than 136 BU s of energy since inception
PTC Market Share – FY12



       45.00%                    41.24%
                                                                                                                  39.28%
       40.00%                                      35.62%
                 33.60% 33.41%            32.69%
       35.00%                                               30.38%                     31.73%            30.21%
                                                                              29.04%            28.76%
                                                                     27.41%
       30.00%

       25.00%

       20.00%

       15.00%

       10.00%

        5.00%

        0.00%
                Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11   Jul-11   Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12


      The above market share is based on the CERC monthly reports and does not include
      the cross border and intrastate transactions done by PTC

Source: CERC
Power Trading
                                  Traded Volume Breakup                                           In MUs

                                                           Q4FY12       Q4FY11
   Business Segment FY12 (MU) FY11 (MU) Growth (%)                                   Growth (%)
                                                            (MU)         (MU)
  Short Term

          Bilateral Trades    8,566    7,091    20.80%       1,604         1574        1.91%

          Captive Trades      2,126    4,081   (-47.90%)       674         1120 (-39.82%)

                Exchange      3,596    4,044   (-11.08%)       700         1452 (-51.79%)

  Short Term (total)         14,288   15,216   (-6.10%)      2,978         4146 (-28.17%)

  Cross Border                5,275    5,569   (-5.28%)        221          217        1.84%

  Long Term Trades            4,749    3,684    28.91%       1,180          827       42.68%

  Wind Power                    13       12     8.33%               1            1       -

  Total                      24,325   24,481   (-0.64%)      4,380         5191 (-15.62%)
Long Term Trading

     During Q4 FY 12, PPAs for an aggregate capacity of
 310 MW have been signed with the project developers
 for purchase of power on long term basis

    PPA capacity as on 31st March, 2012 stands at 14,548
 MW (including 1416 MW Tala, Chukha and Kurichhu
 cross border projects)

     During Q4 FY 12, MoUs for an aggregate capacity of
 430 MW have been signed with the project developers
 for purchase of power on long term basis

    MoUs signed for 14,625 MW as on 31st March, 2012
                                                           States with PSA/
   PSA capacity stands at more than 5550 MW (including     MoU signed

 1416 MW Tala, Chukha and Kurichhu cross border            IPPs with PPAs
 projects) at the end of 31st March, 2012
Long Term Trading…Highlights

 The following Long Term Projects of about 2300 MW have been yielding benefits for the
 company:

   Lanco Amarkantak Power Pvt. Ltd. for Pathadi Thermal Power Plant (Phase I) – 300 MW

    Lanco Amarkantak Power Pvt. Ltd. for Pathadi Thermal Power Plant (Phase II) – 195 MW (65%
 of 300 MW as per the Appelatte Tribunal’s order)

   Torrent Power Generation Ltd. for SUGEN Gas Based Thermal Power project in Gujarat – 100
 MW

   Meenakshi Power Ltd. - 25 MW (2X12.5 MW) Middle Kolab and Lower Kolab Small HEP -12
 MW (3X4 MW) – 37 MW

   Jammu & Kashmir State Power Development Corporation Ltd. “JKSPDCL” for Baglihar HEP
 Power in J&K – 225 MW

    Orissa Power Consortium Ltd. for SAMAL HEP – 20MW

   Cross Border Projects – 1415 MW
Long Term Trading…PPAs
Long Term projects expected to start yielding benefits:                                    In MW
                    Scheduled Year Wise Commissioning (MW) March, 2012
                                 2012-13            2013-14         2014-15          2015-16
            Hydro                   170               1200           83.5
          Thermal                   410               1964           5099             1760
            Total                   580               3164          5182.5            1760

  Some of the Projects scheduled to be commissioned in next couple of years:
  FY13
    Simhapuri Energy Pvt Ltd. for Imported Coal based Power Project in Andhra Pradesh – 200 MW (1st
  unit commissioned in May 2012)
    Meenakshi Power Ltd. for Imported Coal based Power Project in Andhra Pradesh – 160 MW
    Krishna Godavari Power Utilities Ltd. – 60 MW

  FY14

    Teesta Urja Ltd. for Teesta Stage III HEP in Sikkim – 1200 MW
    GMR Energy, Orissa – 323 MW
    Ind Barath (Utkal), Orissa – 560 MW
    Meenakshi Energy Private Ltd. – 546 MW
Power Tolling


                                                                           Purchase of coal at
 Simhapuri Energy Tolling Project                                          competitive prices



  Unit-1 COD achieved on 4 May, 2012
  Unit-2 COD expected by July, 2012.
   Working out arrangements to sell part of this capacity in          Supply of coal to IPP as
 medium term and the balance to be sold under short term                     per PTA


                                                                                  Purchase of power
                                                                               after paying conversion
                                                                                       charge
 Meenakshi Energy Tolling Project

   Unit I is expected to be ready for commissioning in
 June/July, 2012
   Unit 2 is proposed to be dedicated to PTC for tolling.
 Expected commissioning in Aug/Sep 2012.                                         Sale of power at
                                                                                  market prices
                                                               UTILITIES
OUR PERFORMANCE
PTC’s Growth Story

              2500
                                                                                            2041
              2000
                                                                         1660

              1500
                                                          1073
                                         941                             1392
INR Million




              1000                                                                          1204
                         483             908              941
               500
                         487
                 0
                       2007-08         2008-09           2009-10        2010-11         2011-12

                                        Standalone PAT      Consolidated PAT




                     The Consolidated PAT of PTC crossed Rs. 200 Crore for the first time
PTC Group Profitability for FY2012

                                                              For the Year Ended    For the Year Ended
                        Particulars
                                                               March 31, 2012        March 31, 2011
 Standalone PAT of PTC                                                   1,203.66                 1,385.18
 PFS Contribution
 Standalone PAT of PFS                                        1,377.82                  370.09
 Minority interest of PFS                                     (551.56)                (176.51)
 Profit/(loss) of associates of PFS                               1.09                   71.19
 Net Contribution of PFS                                                  827.35                   264.77

 PEL Contribution
 Standalone PAT of PEL                                           28.83                  12.72
 Unrealized gain on coal stock                                 (16.57)                      -
 Profit/(loss) of associates of PEL                             (2.39)                  (0.28)
 Net Contribution of PEL                                                    9.88                    12.44

 PTC Associates and Joint Venture Contribution
 Profit and (loss)of Barak Power Pvt. Ltd (Joint Venture)         0.33                  (0.28)
 Profit/(Loss) of AEVPL (Associate)                             (0.07)                  (1.86)
 Net Contribution of PTC Associate and Joint Venture                        0.26                    (2.64)

 Profit as Per Consolidated P&L Account                                  2,041.22                1,660.26
                                             In INR Million                                                  18
Financials… profit from operations (PTC standalone)

         In Rs. Mn          Profit From Operations
                           Yearly comparison
                                   1409.09
        1600         1362.38
        1400
        1200
        1000                                             Fourth quarter
         800                                              comparison
         600                                    329.88          312.41
         400
         200
           0
                     FY11         FY12         Q4FY11         Q4FY12


       Profit from operations in FY12 increased to Rs. 140.9 Cr, which was a an
       increase of about 3.5 % over the FY11 figure of Rs. 136.23 Cr
Financials… profit             (PTC standalone)

                                                                                         Rs. Cr



     PBT for FY12 is Rs. 165.7 Crore as      Q4FY12
                                                                   40.02
   compared to Rs. 196.8 Crore in FY11 a     Q4FY11                 47.28
   drop of about 15.93%.
                                                                                                  165.7
                                             FY12
     PBT for Q4FY12 is Rs. 40.02 Crore as                                                             196.8
                                             FY11
   compared to Rs. 47.28 Crore in Q4FY11
   a drop of about 15.6%.
                                                      0       50            100         150         200
                                                                        PBT
     PAT for FY12 is Rs.120.3 Crore as
   compared to Rs 138.51 Crore in FY11, a
   drop of about 13%                         Q4FY12                 30.05
                                                                    32.81
     PAT for Q4FY12 is Rs.30.05 Crore as     Q4FY11
   compared to Rs 32.81 Crore in Q4FY12, a                                                    120.3
   drop of about 8.4%                        FY12
                                                                                                   138.51
                                             FY11

                                                          0        50             100              150
                                                                        PAT
Key Financial Nos. - PTC

                             FY 12               FY 11            Q4 FY12        Q4 FY11
                           (Rs. Mn)            (Rs. Mn)           (Rs. Mn)       (Rs. Mn)


  Rebate Disallowed
                            401.64              336.38             25.25          158.56
  Surcharge Received
                            271.91              105.39             151.29         104.37
  Interest Expenses
                            259.72               11.23              63.52           0.67
  Margin per Unit
  (with out Rebate
                             0.044               0.047              0.047          0.052
  and Surcharge)
  (Rs./unit)
  Margin per Unit
  (including Rebate
                             0.071               0.065              0.087          0.084
  and Surcharge)
  (Rs./unit)

      Debt outstanding as on 31.03.2012: reduced to Zero from Rs. 177 Crores on 31.12.2011

       Cash balance as on 31.03.2012 (incl. FDRs/FMPs): Rs. 57.32 Crores
Key Financial Nos. – PTC’s Debtor and Creditor Period Analysis


                                                                   As on
 Particulars                            As on March 31,2012                      As on March 31, 2011
                                                              December 31,2011
 Debtors                                      25,810.06            23,146.56            9,778.91
  Net Debtors (Excluding UPPCL and
                                               6,737.92             7,177.11            6,998.91
 TNEB)
 Creditors                                    12,581.88            10,504.35            5,238.16
  Net Creditors (Excluding UPPCL and
                                               5,150.38             5,691.65
 TNEB)
 Average Collection Period (No.of
                                                 125.33              104.01               40.32
 Days)
 Average Payment Period ( No.of Days)             61.90               47.83               21.86
 Difference between payment and
                                                  63.43               56.18               18.46
 collection period
 Average Collection period excluding
                                                  32.72               32.25               28.86
 TNEB and UPPCL
 Average Payment period as per net
                                                  25.34               25.91               21.86
 Creditors excluding TNEB and UPPCL
 Difference between payment and
                                                  7.38                 6.34                7.00
 collection period

       As per the contracts 2% rebate is applicable for the early payments made within 7 days
    from the date of Invoice and a surcharge is levied for payments beyond the due date,
    which is 30 days from the date of Invoice
                         PTC has never had a payment default since inception
Equity Investment Status as on 31.03.12

 Name of           the   Amount Approved           Investment Status as   Shareholding Pattern as on 31.03.12 (%)
 Company                 by Board                  on 31.03.12     (Rs.
                         (Rs in Mn)                In Mn)
 PTC India Financial             4,460                    4,460           PTC India Ltd – 60.00%
 Services Ltd. (60%                                                       Goldman Sachs – 8.66%
 listed subsidiary of                                                     Macquarie – 3.46%
 PTC India Ltd.)
                                                                          Public & Others – 27.88%
 PTC Energy Ltd                  2,000                     550            PTC India Ltd – 100%
 (100% unlisted
 subsidiary of PTC
 India Ltd.)
 Athena Energy                   1,500                    1,500           Athena Entities – 66.00%
 Ventures Pvt Ltd                                                         PTC India Ltd – 18.00%
                                                                          IFCI – 10%
                                                                          IDFC – 6.00%
 Teesta Urja Ltd         1,360 + (Additional 10%          1,414           Athena Entities incl. on behalf of Govt of Sikkim –
                         for cost overrun)= 1496                          89.00%*
                                                                          PTC India Ltd – 11.00%
 Krishna Godavari                 400                     375.53          Promoters – 65.34%
 Power Utilities                                                          PTC India Ltd – 34.66%
 Ltd**

                                                                                                                            23
Equity Investment Status as on 31.03.12

 Name of            the     Amount Approved                  Investment Status as              Shareholding Pattern as on 31.03.12 (%)
 Company                    by Board                         on 31.03.12     (Rs.
                            (Rs in Mn)                       In Mn)
 Chenab Valley                            7                               1.00                 PTC – 2%
 Power Projects                                                                                NHPC – 49%
 (Pvt) Ltd.                                                                                    JKSPDC – 49%
 Total                               9863.00                          8,300.53
 *26% shareholding of Govt. of Sikkim is not fully paid up and has presently been subscribed on partly paid up basis by Athena Group.
 ** Including Rs. 18.05 Cr against share application money has been released by PTC.
 NOTE:
 1. Rs. 46,800/- has been released by PTC India Ltd. to Ashmore PTC India Energy Infrastructure Advisers Pvt. Ltd., in which Ashmore has 60% stake and PTC has
     40% stake, the process of winding up has been started by both the partners.
 2. Rs. 47,330/- has been released by PTC India Ltd. to Ashmore PTC India Energy Infrastructure Trustee Pvt. Ltd., in which Ashmore has 60% stake and PTC has
     40% stake, the process of winding up has been started by both the partners.




                                                                                                                                                        24
PEL…fuel intermediation

                Coal Trading Volume (MT)
                                               3.9
   4
                                                               These numbers also
   3                            2.2                            include coal supply
                                                               for the tolling
   2
                                                               projects
         0.28         0.42
   1

   0
       FY11         FY12     FY13E          FY14E

                               PEL - Performance
                                     FY12            FY11      FY10
         Income (INR mn)                1626           938.2     278.5
         PBT (INR mn)                   42.8            18.6        7.3
         PAT (INR mn)                   28.8            12.7       11.2
Way Ahead…

   Remain in the forefront of Power Market Development
 retaining the Market Leader position

   Increasing the customer base – getting Open Access
 customers (having load of more than 1 MW)

   Strengthen trading value proposition through presence in
 Coal (Coal mines development overseas/ import)

   Increase renewable / energy efficiency portfolio

   Development of Energy Infrastructure / power projects

   Enhancing Regional Energy Trade

   A One Stop Holistic Solution provider in the energy value
 chain
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME & PATIENCE
            www.ptcindia.com
Disclaimer


    Statements in this presentation describing the Company’s objectives,
    projections, estimates, expectations may be “forward looking
    statements” within the meaning of applicable securities laws and
    regulations. Actual results could differ materially from those
    expressed or implied. Important factors that could make a difference
    to the Company’s operations include, among others, economic
    conditions affecting demand / supply and price conditions in the
    domestic and overseas markets in which the Company operates,
    changes in Government regulations, tax laws and other statutes and
    incidental factors.

				
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