SCOTLAND�S LOW CARBON INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030

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					SCOTLAND’S LOW CARBON INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030

  A SHARED AGENDA FOR DELIVERING THE VISION




                  Edinburgh
                 October 2011
Executive Summary

In thinking about the potential contribution Scottish Enterprise could make to
delivering improved infrastructure for a low carbon economy, we embarked on an
exercise to identify Scotland’s ‘vision’ for its infrastructure needs in 2030. We soon
realised two things:

       first, the collective vision for a low carbon Scotland in 2030 is sketchy, at best;
       second, we can’t do this alone. In clarifying and developing this vision, we
        needed to do this in a collaborative way with relevant public and private
        sector partners.

This report summarises discussions at a day-long event in October 2011 involving
40+ participants where we set out to:

   1. develop a clearer, shared picture of Scotland’s infrastructure needs in 2030 in
      relation to four themes: transport and connectivity; energy; resource
      management; and the built environment;
   2. develop shared ‘route maps’ for each theme between 2011 and 2030; and
   3. use the shared ‘route maps’ to inform and guide our collective planning and
      delivery.

We discovered that:

       this is a difficult task – given the timescales and breadth of issues involved;
       joined-up thinking and coordinated delivery is needed – since the four themes
        we discussed are all interconnected in different ways; and
       fresh thinking is needed – achieving transformational change in the transition
        to a low carbon Scotland often requires new thinking, new approaches and
        new behaviours.

For all of these reasons, participants agreed that:

       our collective visions and plans are not always very clear or comprehensive;
       we need much stronger coordination across Scotland, both in terms of plan-
        making and – particularly – in the execution of our plans;
       clearer, ongoing mechanisms are needed for agreeing delivery priorities; and
       the delivery of infrastructure for a low carbon Scotland must consider not only
        investment and technological issues but crucially, must secure wider public
        support to enable new developments and wider behavioural changes to take
        place.

In summarising the visions, route maps, challenges and opportunities for each of the
four infrastructure themes the value of this report is in setting a forward agenda for
the priority issues that now need to be addressed.

Together with highlighting cross-cutting issues, the report highlights a number of
recommendations for action for each of the infrastructure themes.           These
recommendations have been drafted after the event in conjunction with the Scottish
Government and the 2020 Climate Group. To make progress, we now wish to see
the relevant groups and bodies give these recommendations due consideration.
Purpose and objectives

There is often a long lead-time involved in new infrastructure development, and
infrastructure assets typically have a long lifespan. So it is vital that we begin to
identify our infrastructure needs in 2030 in order to understand the decisions we
need to be taking, both today and over the coming years.

There were three objectives to this event, organised and hosted by Scottish
Enterprise:

   1. to develop a clearer, shared picture of Scotland’s infrastructure needs in 2030
      in order to help deliver the climate change targets – ie to sketch out the
      destination
   2. to develop a shared route map for the journey to 2030 – illustrating the
      challenges, opportunities and milestones along the way
   3. to use the shared ‘route maps’ to inform and guide our collective and
      individual organisational planning and delivery.

As outlined at Annex A, event participants represented a wide variety of
organisations with roles and responsibilities for infrastructure development. Although
fairly representative they were clearly not comprehensive. The value of the event –
and hopefully of this report – is therefore to help identify the priority issues and set
the agenda so that others can address the required solutions. In particular, this
report is directly informing the development of the second RPP as well as the work of
the 2020 Climate Group.

Legislative and policy context

Infrastructure for energy, transport, resource management and the built environment
plays a hugely significant role in the transition towards a low carbon Scotland. Not
only will improvements in our infrastructure be an important driver of change but they
will also help enable the low carbon transition through promoting appropriate
technologies and behaviours.

The long-term legislative and policy context is provided by the Climate Change
(Scotland) Act and the accompanying Report on Policies and Proposals (RPP).
Together, these set the overall ambition in terms of the emissions reduction targets to
be achieved by 2020 and 2050, together with the existing and proposed future
policies needed to deliver the ambition. The first RPP sets out the annual targets
during the period 2012-22 and the second RPP, to be laid before Parliament in 2012,
will cover the period 2023-27.

Over the period to 2015 the nature and direction of change is established by the
refreshed Government Economic Strategy and its supporting Low Carbon Economic
Strategy. The National Planning Framework is the key document that outlines
strategic infrastructure requirements over the next decade.

Structure of this report

The report is largely focused on the four infrastructure themes discussed at the event
– transport and connectivity; energy; resource management (water and waste); and
the built environment – but begins with a summary of the overall ‘vision’ for
Scotland’s infrastructure needs in 2030.
Scotland’s infrastructure in 2030 – The ‘vision’

Over the next 20 years we expect to see a very different Scotland emerge which will
transform the ways in which we live, work, travel and do business. The event
imagined what this future might look like, and identified how infrastructure can enable
the low carbon transition and help exploit its economic potential.

The low carbon transition is already well underway and will continue so that by 2020:

      Scottish CO2 emissions are 42% lower than 1990 levels
      energy consumption is reduced by 12%
      the equivalent of 100% of electricity is produced from renewable sources
      60,000 new green jobs have been created
      the value of our low carbon industries has increased
      there are many more journeys undertaken by public transport
      our ecological footprint has been reduced.

Beyond this date, by 2030 the Climate Change Delivery Plan highlights four
‘transformational outcomes’:

      electricity generation is decarbonised
      significant progress is made in decarbonising the heat sector
      significant progress is made in decarbonising road and rail infrastructure
      we take carbon into account in rural land use decisions.

The Report on Proposals and Policies provides the clearest description of the ‘vision’:

       A low carbon society will use less energy and fewer resources: at home, at work, on
       the move and across the public sector. It is a society where more of the energy that
       we do use comes from cleaner and renewable sources such as water, wind, wave
       and solar power. It is a society that is ready and able to realise the economic
       opportunities that come from producing fewer carbon emissions, from improved
       energy and resource efficiency, and from reducing the level of reliance on carbon-
       based fuel. And it is a society in which we act responsibly, mindful of future
       generations, and where our actions lead by example across the world.

Changes of this scale are clearly daunting – but we also need to acknowledge that
they are feasible given the right leadership, behaviours, incentives, technologies and
investment. For instance, the fall of the Berlin Wall transformed the German
economy into the powerhouse of the Eurozone and more recently, South Korea has
rapidly become the most digitally-connected nation in the world.

We currently view the next 10 to 20 years as a make-or-break period in terms of
restoring sustainable economic growth and both mitigating and adapting to the
impacts of climate change. The choices and decisions we take today will have long
lasting effects, and will determine whether we will succeed in translating Scotland’s
aspirations for a prosperous, sustainable and low carbon economy into reality.

Within this overall Scottish context, discussions at the event were structured around
the four infrastructure themes. The next section of this report summarises the
collective responses to the three questions:

      what is the ‘vision’ for 2030 ?
      to what extent will current plans help us deliver the vision ?
      what are the key gaps we need to address just now?
A.        Transport and Connectivity

 2030 Vision

 Within Scotland

     
                                   st
          Space on Scotland’s 21 century road and pavement infrastructure is effectively
          allocated between pedestrians, bikes, buses, lorries and cars.

         Scotland’s private cars are almost entirely electric powered, and improved public
          transport and effective regulation has reduced demand for their use in areas that
          previously suffered from congestion.

         Alongside a more effectively utilised rail network, there are sustainable travel
          choices available for all.

         There is greater integration of passenger transport (using integrated ticketing) and
          freight transport (making use of community logistics hubs).

         Safe, secure cycle and pedestrian routes to schools and workplaces have achieved
          a significant increase in active travel.

         Scotland’s transport infrastructure is more resilient to increasingly frequent flooding
          and landslips, partly thanks to a real time “vulnerability map” which alerts operators
          to trigger preventative and alleviative action.

         Scotland’s state-of-the-art digital connectivity has increased capacity for home
          working and virtual meetings, to significantly reduce travel.

 Between Scotland and the World

         Scotland’s air connections are firmly targeted on serving the key global markets that
          maintain Scotland’s competitiveness.

         Gradual enhancements towards full-scale high-speed rail connections to England
          (due to open shortly) are reducing demand for domestic flights.

         Scotland’s pervasive fibre network and mobile-enabled connectivity have made all
          parts of Scotland attractive places to do international business.


Are current plans sufficient ?

        the RPP contains 12 transport proposals - but current investment priorities are
         around plugging gaps in the road and rail network, including new trunk roads
        the piloting of electric vehicle charging points is already planned
        Glasgow Airport is considering how to achieve more efficient terminals as part
         of its investment plan (are heat energy waste systems a possibility around
         major transport hubs?)

What are the current gaps in our planning ?

        Translation of policy/vision into investment plans, funding and appropriate
         regulation
        Achieving consensus around priority investments
        We need to communicate the RPP vision and ensure it can impact on local
         decision making (eg planning decisions in support of active travel).
B.       Energy

 2030 Vision

        Scotland will be producing more renewable electricity than it consumes with the
         surplus exported to England and Northern Ireland, with plans in place to connect to
         the continent. This will be predominantly wind generated, but with a sizeable mix of
         micro-renewables and other marine. Back-up generation will be from gas power
         stations with carbon capture and storage under the North Sea. Industrial
         complexes, such as Grangemouth, will be connected to CCS. The North Sea will
         be a storage zone for CO2 from the continent.

        Electricity demand will not have changed significantly as the increase arising from
         the electrification of transport, and to a lesser extent heating, will be offset by
         energy efficiency improvements by business and householders.

        Demand for heat will have fallen due to improved insulation. Heating will be
         provided from a wide variety of sources. New buildings will be heated from
         renewable sources, but gas will still be significant in existing buildings.

        It is unclear what role hydrogen will have.

        Distinctive geographic areas, such as islands, will be used as live pilots for smart
         integration between utilities, ICT companies, consumers and businesses – for
         electricity, heat and transport needs.


Are current plans sufficient ?

Over the next five years some of the key infrastructure improvements required will be
delivered eg:
     Beauly-Denny power line by 2014
     Peterhead to England marine grid by 2015, with a West Coast line being
        delivered soon after
     considerable on-shore wind developments currently in planning
     smart meters by 2016.

However:
    overall, there are still gaps between the ambitious targets and current planned
     investments
    there are relatively clear plans on renewable electricity, but less clear on
     renewable heat (12% renewable heat by 2020) and on renewable transport.
     Often there seems to be an assumption that once targets are set, the required
     investment will flow.           But detailed enabling policies are needed for
     implementation (eg will the Green Deal help to deliver a 12% reduction in
     energy use ?)
    while most agree that the National Renewables Infrastructure Plan (N-RIP) is
     a great plan, it is still difficult to encourage private investors to invest.

What are the current gaps in our planning ?

        streamlining planning decisions – notably, it took 10 years to obtain planning
         permission for the Beauly to Denny line
        further grid upgrades are required, together with subsea grids
        there is no clear plan for meeting the renewable heat target
        further analysis is required on the best role for hydrogen.
C.       Resource management

The scope of this theme includes:
    resources – prevention, re-use and recycling
    energy from waste
    water supply
    waste water treatment and management
    drainage and flood management.

2030 Vision

        An integrated system for resource management connected to the wider economy
         and society, and where resources are appropriately priced.

        A ‘closed loop’ system characterised by: hardly any waste going to landfill;
         sharing of by-products between firms/industries; more recycling facilities in
         Scotland; and cost-effective technological solutions. Companies maximise the
         value of resources they use through re-use and recovery.

        Continued good quality, safe sanitation (water supply)

        Changed public perceptions enabled by better information and products; greater
         acceptance of the need for greater self-reliance and personal responsibility; and
         ‘green’ solutions eg use of grey water

        Water separation ‘at source’ (eg water butts attached to gutters), supported by
         improved building regulations for new build. Nutrient recovery from water.

        Renewable energy generation from water and waste water treatment plants.

        A relative shift from centralised water treatment ‘hubs’ to a much more
         decentralised network eg ‘green’ treatment of sludge waste now being used for
         agricultural fertiliser. Responsibilities and solutions are now identified across the
         system, not just at the ‘end-of-pipe’.

        Owing to climate change, Scotland still enjoys an abundance of water overall
         although there are localised shortages, particularly in the East. This has led to
         differentiated buildings and water standards in different parts of Scotland and a
         changing distribution of agricultural land.

        Natural flood management techniques are employed eg SUDs, re-meandering
         and preventative solutions at source.

        There is an overall widespread acknowledgement that water is a key resource
         and opportunity for Scotland


Are current plans sufficient ?

        there is a plethora of plans across the theme of resource management (see
         page 15) but a strong sense that these plans are not very well integrated
         across organisations, issues and different levels of governance

What are the current gaps in our planning ?

Resource prevention, re-use and recycling:
    there is currently little integration between the various plans
        little or no focus on industrial waste – which accounts for 75% of the total
        a need for much stronger strategic planning at the Scottish level.

Energy from waste
    a lack of strategic integration and coordination
    communities are generally not seen as part of the solution
    supply and demand are not always connected in a coordinated manner.

Water supply
   an opportunity to take a longer-term perspective eg Water Framework
       Directive.

Waste water treatment
   there is a need to balance water quality and energy/carbon use. Could we
      adopt variable quality standards in different seasons, for instance ?
   a need to acknowledge the requirement to balance risks more appropriately.

Drainage and flood management
    relatively weak integration in plan-making at different spatial levels so far.

Cross-cutting plans
    insufficient focus on waste and water issues relating to the agricultural sector
    the Scottish Land Use Strategy lacks a detailed action plan as well as any
       regional perspective.


D.       Built Environment

The scope of this theme includes:
    retrofit and new build of residential, commercial and public assets
    places and spaces e.g. street lighting and smart cities.

 2030 Vision

        Construction and other industry policies and practices (eg investment, skills, supply
         chain development) are in place to meet our ambitions for 2030 – as a key
         milestone to deliver a more meaningful longer term (2050) low carbon vision.

        There is much improved design and planning of low carbon places where SMART
         communities know how to use low carbon infrastructure.

        Learning infrastructure is in place to deliver the vision (both in terms of user skills
         and supplier skills).

        Greater resilience, flexibility and adaptability to cope with future changes e.g.
         energy price volatility and supply chain shocks.

        Much of new build is constructed off-site using locally sourced materials (e.g.
         timber).
 2030 Vision (contd)

      The worst properties have gone and been replaced, and issues with the ‘next worst’
       (hard to treat retrofit) have been addressed.

      New business models are in place to provide decentralised / clean energy.

      Planning for the low carbon built environment is based on optimum resource
       efficiency and demand management.

      Energy storage solutions are widespread in homes

Are current plans sufficient ?

      building regulations - Scotland is working towards an overall ambition that all
       new buildings in Scotland will be net zero carbon (ie space and water heating,
       lighting and ventilation) by 2016/17, if practical
      the Low Carbon Building Standards Strategy For Scotland (Sullivan Report )
       sets out a wide range of recommendations for new and existing buildings to
       deliver reduced emissions from Scotland’s building stock.
      the Scottish Government’s Construction Works Procurement Guidance
       contains best practice, policy and procedures for public works procurement.
      the Sustainable Housing Strategy Group will contribute to the development of
       a Strategy for Sustainable Housing in Scotland in 2012.
      the Scottish Government is working with stakeholders to develop a climate
       change standard for social housing that will build on current standards set out
       in the Scottish Housing Quality Standard.

What are the current gaps in our planning ?

      access to finance and ability to persuade stakeholders to invest in cost
       effective energy efficiency investments but with longer payback periods
      gaps in the evidence base (e.g. commercial property) to make informed
       decisions on priorities e.g. re skills investments
‘Route maps’ to 2030

Having first of all sketched out a vision for our ‘destination’ by 2030 for each
infrastructure theme, discussions then focused on identifying the key milestones on
the route between 2011 and 2030. The four ‘route maps’ are presented in the
following pages together with a summary of the critical challenges and opportunities
highlighted by event participants.


A.     Transport and Connectivity

Key challenges

    Capital costs: There is uncertainty over securing sufficient resources to deliver
     the 12 RPP proposals as well as next generation digital infrastructure

    Prioritisation: With limited resources it is vital that collective agreement is
     achieved on prioritised investments

    Affordability: Ensuring affordability for users

    Policy challenges: Resolving the policy tensions between low carbon and
     economic growth objectives (as exemplified by current transport priorities,
     which appear to focus on addressing gaps in the rail and trunk road network)

Opportunities

    Public sector financial constraints can help to stimulate digital delivery

    Scotland’s size should make agreeing priorities and integrating services easier

    Joined-up thinking about better use of current infrastructure (eg integrated
     ticketing)

    The EU drive to a single transport, energy and ICT network

    Renewable energy potential offers Scotland great opportunities around low
     carbon approach to electric vehicles and data centres – an example of major
     dependency between energy and transport

    Planning practice in shaping developments is vital in securing a reduction in car
     dependency – a major dependency between built environment and transport.
                                                                         Low carbon vision: connectivity- milestones and timeline

                                            Targets
                                                                                              10% of all    30mb/s digital                        Significant progress
                                                                                              journeys      for all &                             in decarbonisation of
Current Plans:                                                                                by bike                                             road and rail
                                                     Significant                                            100mb/s for
Transport:                                           progress towards                                       50% of
                                                                                      All public
   Strategic Transport Projects Review              next generation                                        population
    (Transport Scotland)                                                              sector
   Regional Transport Partnership
                                                     Broadband                        vehicles                               Effective travel
    Strategies and Business Plans                    targets                          electric-                              planning for
   Intelligent Transport System Action                                               powered
    Plan (SG)
                                                                                                                             30+ employers
   Cycling Action Plan for Scotland (SG)


Connectivity:
                                                              15% of surface
   National Broadband Infrastructure
    Plan (due 2012)
                                            2011                              2015
                                                              travel to Airports by     Integrated         2020                            2025                  2030
                                                              public transport          ticketing &
                                                                                        timetabling in
Cross-cutting plans                                     National                        place (2014)
   Infrastructure Investment Plan (SG,                 Broadband                                                      300,000 EVs in
    due 2011)                                           Infrastructure                10% increase in                  Scotland                          Over 50% of
   Local authority spatial development                 Plan (2012)                   bus journeys                                                       private cars
    plans                                   Infrastructure                                              Mature
                                                                             Need for logistics                                                          are EVs,
   National Planning Framework (SG)        Investment Plan                                             market for
                                                                             planning & freight routing EVs and EV                                       moving
                                                     Low carbon vehicle      reflected in NPF3                                                           towards
                                                                                                        charging                                         wholesale
                                                     action plan with clear                             points in
                                                     model for investment in                                                                             adoption
                                                                                                        cities
                                                     plug-in infrastructure
                                                     (2012)
                                            Delivery
                                            milestones
B.       Energy

Key challenges

        Public support: The disruption and resultant public outcry from constructing
         Edinburgh’s tram system will make it extremely difficult to put forward any
         retrofit heat network plans for Edinburgh. Achieving broad public support is
         essential, but difficult given (a) current experiences (eg Edinburgh trams) (b)
         public perceptions (eg heat from sewage, burying C02 (c) costs and (d) the
         need for effective and timely decision-making (eg where certain interests can
         often unduly influence local decision making).

        Finance: CCS is dependent on the price of CO2, which is uncertain both now
         and in the future. The financing of renewable energy infrastructure,
         particularly marine renewables, is more expensive (unproven commercially at
         scale). A key uncertainty is caused by EMR (electricity market reform).

        Focus: The current emphasis is on renewables, but by 2030 it is possible that
         the emphasis shifts towards energy efficiency and insulation – any uncertainty
         delays business decisions.

        Risk and reward: Do early adopters win early mover advantage, or is it too
         high risk (eg Wick heating district). There is a perception that it can be
         cheaper and less risky to copy others.

        Smart meters: Smart meters are an opportunity to develop new business
         models but utility companies may be overwhelmed with the volume of data
         from smart meters and struggle to put it to constructive use

        Institutional arrangements: There is a feeling that nobody owns delivery of
         the targets – eg for renewable heat, who ensures delivery across Scotland ?
         Councils have few powers to enforce (unlike parts of Europe).

        Supply chain issues: There are possible supply chain bottlenecks, for
         example cables for grid enhancements.

        Technological uncertainty: There is technological uncertainty around new low
         carbon infrastructure, particularly for marine power and CCS, which makes
         investments more complex, uncertain and costly.

Opportunities

        Energy already has a number of action plans and groups responsible for
         overseeing these. No new groups are required.

        Complex business models may need to evolve for inter-disciplinary areas –
         transport, utilities, consumers and IT. Who will regulate this ? Policy makers
         may need to consider the options.

        Leadership: Lead by example through a ‘whole system’ pilot in a discrete
         geographic area (such as an island). Hold a ‘2030 smart area’ competition.
         Work with business who will be keen to pilot and demonstrate their services.
         Sweden held a one tonne life pilot which brought together architects, builders,
         supermarkets, a car company, utility companies and a university.
                                                                           Low carbon vision: energy milestones and timeline
                                                              N-RIP
                                         Targets           Offshore wind action
                                         31% renewable     plan                                100% renewable               CCS roadmap             Decarbonisation of
                                         generation                                            generation                                           grid
                                                          marine energy
                                                          action plan
Current Plans:
                                                            Renewables                          11% renewable heat                                  Largely decarbonise
Renewable energy:                                           action plan                                                         Unclear beyond
                                                                                                                                2020                heat by 2050
   Offshore Wind Route map (SG)
   Marine Energy Roadmap (SG)                            Renewable heat
   Carbon Capture Roadmap (SG)                           action plan
   Renewables Action Plan (SG)
                                                                                                12% demand
   National Renewables Infrastructure                                                          reduction
    Plan (N-RIP) (SG/SE/HIE)

Renewable heat:
   Renewable Heat Action Plan (SG)
                                         2011                             2015                       2020                               2025                 2030
Grid:                                                                          Smart meters,
   Smart grid route map (UK)                  Green Deal, 2012
                                                                               2016
   Smart meters by 2016                                                                                 Greater grid storage
   Beauly to Denny 2014                                                                                 capacity
                                                             Beauly to Denny
                                         Renewables          2014
                                         obligation,                                 New grid lines to
                                         FIT                                                                                                     Subsea grid to
                                                                                     England                                                     Norway and the
                                                                                                                                                 continent
                                              RHI, 2012                                  Peterhead CCS?
                                                                                                                         More integration
                                                                                                                         between transport,         The role of
                                                                                                                         heat and electricity       hydrogen – a big
                                         Delivery                                                                                                   unknown

                                         milestones
C.      Resource management (Water and Waste)

Key challenges

    Prioritisation: It is not clear which forum(s) and/or groups are responsible for
     agreeing delivery priorities – providing strategic leadership on priorities is vital

    Public/private sector roles: The respective roles of the public and private sector
     in delivering certain types of infrastructure are sometimes not well defined

    Public support: Building public awareness and understanding of the need for
     change and innovation in resource management eg district heating and new
     forms of waste management

    Planning system coordination:      Currently, developers commonly play one
     planning authority off against another by submitting ‘competing’ proposals in
     multiple areas. As a consequence, planning consent at the lowest cost normally
     trumps delivery of the most sustainable solutions. Greater coordination between
     planning authorities is needed

    Using regulation to drive change: There is a need join-up infrastructure solutions
     to accelerate progress in delivering a low carbon economy. To help this, local
     authorities should attach and enforce stronger planning conditions to drive the
     implementation of district heating, biogas etc solutions.

Opportunities

    A Scottish ‘National Infrastructure Plan’ that integrates resource management
     issues, with a focus on identifying the linkages in processes rather than
     structures

    Develop Scottish targets for the reduction and re-use of industrial and
     commercial waste

    Design in opportunities to make linkages across infrastructure provision eg fibre
     optic cables laid within sewers

    Pilot community-based approaches that link local ‘demand’ to district heating
     ‘supply’ (eg similar to the current Forth Ports proposals in Leith and elsewhere).
     We need to implement a range of integrated, locally-based pilots/exemplar
     projects across Scotland, then share them as case studies and scale them up

    Establish a broader approach to meeting Scotland’s renewable energy needs
     from all sources including energy from waste, hydro, biomass, heat etc

    Ensure that Scottish Government-commissioned research (through the new
     Centres of Expertise for water and climate change) directly address and inform
     delivery challenges.
Current Plans:
                                                             Low carbon vision: resource management milestones and timeline
Resource prevention, re-use and
recycling:                                                                                                                                      NB No targets for
   Zero Waste Plan (SG)                  Targets2013: EU to introduce                                                                            industrial and
   Waste Prevention and Sustainable                                                                                                            commercial waste
    Resources (SG)                                      targets for materials
   UK Resource Security Plan                            reduction & re-use
   EU Resource Efficiency Roadmap
                                                                                                                                    70%
   Local authority Investment Plans          40%              50%                                 60%
                                           domestic         domestic                            domestic                         domestic
Energy from waste                          recycling        recycling                           recycling                        recycling
   Zero Waste Plan (SG)                     (2010)           (2013)                              (2020)                           (2025)
   Renewable Energy Action Plan (SG)
   Renewable Heat Plan (SG)
   Scottish Water plans for anaerobic     2.7m tonnes       1.8m tonnes                        1.26m tonnes                     < 5% waste
    digestion
                                             waste to          waste to                            waste to                       to landfill
                                          landfill (2010)   landfill (2013)                     landfill (2020)                     (2025)
Water supply
   Scottish Water’s Resource Plan (a
    rolling 25-year plan)
   Quality and Standards process
   Water Framework Directive, and the
    resulting River Basin Management      2011                          2015                        2020                          2025                      2030
    Plans
   Regulations eg drinking water
                                                        2009-15                     20015-21                           2021-27
Waste water treatment
                                                                                                                     River Basin
   Quality and Standards process                   River Basin                    River Basin
   River Basin Management Plans                 Management Plan 1              Management Plan 2                 Management Plan 3

Drainage and flood management
   Metropolitan Glasgow Strategic
    Drainage Plan
                                                        NB Resources (waste management):
   (river) Flood Management Plans,               infrastructure being designed and implemented
    leading to the development of an             2010-15 to manage resources and provide capacity
    overall Scottish plan                                     over the period 2015-30
                                                                                                                                                       Key:
Cross-cutting plans
   Local authority spatial development   Delivery                                                                                                     Resources
    plans
   Scottish Water’s Carbon Plan          milestones                                                                                                   Water
D.     Built Environment

Key challenges

    Leadership:      Who is responsible for delivering the required integrated
     solutions ?

    Public/private sector roles: Providing much greater clarity on what industry can
     do to deliver the vision

    Procurement: Sustainable procurement guidelines are not always implemented
     and do not always relate well to local authorities – all have different
     procurement processes

    Standards: Scotland is yet to decide on design standards for non-domestic
     buildings (eg should these be BREEAM, LEED or another standard ?)

    Slow decision-making: Uncertainty and delays over policy instruments (e.g.
     Renewable Heat Incentive and Green Deal) inhibits private sector investment

    Energy security: there are concerns over (a) security of energy supply but also
     (b) security of digital information around energy supply/demand as we move to
     smarter grids

    Public support: Large scale low carbon solutions e.g. district heating and waste
     management are challenging as many are resistant to change

    Skills: Skills issues, particularly re hard to treat retrofit

Opportunities

    Government policy interventions can stimulate markets. These include; Green
     Investment Bank, Renewables Obligations Certificates (ROCs), Feed in Tariffs
     (FiTs) and Renewable Heat Incentives

    Green Deal in particular should stimulate large scale energy efficiency
     opportunities. This features energy savings funds where loans are repaid from
     energy savings

    Off-site construction using locally sourced materials (e.g. timber) is a particular
     opportunity for Scotland

    Decentralised community energy systems should allow communities to address
     concerns about security of energy supply

    Pilot and demonstration projects are required to help bring particular low carbon
     technologies closer to the market eg demonstration of portable waste
     management solutions. These also serve to future proof products and address
     consumer concerns around technology change e.g. Sustainable Ravenscraig

    Low carbon technology innovations need to be endorsed by insurance
     companies
   It would be helpful to develop a simple tool which can calculate investment
    returns and payback periods

   Construction would benefit from standardised products and processes at
    Scottish and global levels

   Local Authorities should work together with industry to provide product and
    process solutions (SE and/or others have a potential role to broker this)

   There are notable large scale low carbon solutions within Social Housing

   A central information portal and evidence base would be useful

   Smarter ICT infrastructure can help deliver many of the opportunities within low
    carbon construction.
                                                                    Low carbon vision: built environment milestones and timeline

                                              Targets
                                                                                                                              NB A relative lack of (non-energy)
                                                                                                                                construction-related targets

Current Plans:
Building standards
   Low Carbon       Building Standards
    Strategy For     Scotland (Sullivan                                              Zero carbon
    Report)                                                                          housing
                                                                                                               RPP targets
Construction waste                                                                                             for lofts,
   Zero Waste Scotland's ‘Halving Waste                                                                       cavities and
    to Landfill’ commitment encourages                                                                         boilers
    the construction sector to mainstream
    resource efficiency in the design and
    construction    of   new     buildings,
    infrastructure   and     refurbishment
    projects                                  2011                        2015     Scottish housing        2020                      2025                      2030
                                                           Strategy for             Quality standard      New build tool                                 Plan B for
Procurement                                                                                               for non
                                                           sustainable              for fuel poverty                                                     thermal power
   Scottish Government Construction                                                                      domestic
    Works Procurement Guidance                             housing      First round of                                                                   stations?
                                                     Retrofit           plans adopted
Housing
                                                     action plan        for energy
   Strategy for Sustainable Housing in
    Scotland (due 2012, being developed                                 improvements
    by the Sustainable Housing Strategy
    Group)                                    Decisions on         Review of energy
   Development of a climate change           Renewable Heat       standards within
    standard for social housing that will     Incentives and      building regulations
    build on current standards set out in     Green Deal             (2013 & 2016)
    the Scottish Housing Quality Standard
    (SG and stakeholders).

Cross-cutting plans
                                              Delivery
                                                                       Scottish election               Scottish election      Scottish election      Scottish election
   Local authority spatial development
    plans
                                              milestones
The next steps in our journey

Realistically, a single day-long event was unable to address all of the infrastructural
opportunities and challenges related to Scotland’s low carbon transition. But what it
did do is to start to identify the key issues that can be addressed by the relevant
organisations and groups already tasked with guiding Scotland’s low carbon
transition. In other words, the value of this event is in helping to set the forward
agenda for future discussions.

What have we learned about our current progress towards realising our vision for
2030 ?

A strong vision is only just starting to emerge…

Overall, our collective vision of a sustainable, low carbon Scotland is just beginning
to become clearer and more tangible. We know this is a difficult exercise but it
remains a priority if we are to make Scotland’s low carbon future ‘real’ for
organisations and the public. The vision is much clearer where targets have already
been established – notably relating to renewable energy – but arguably weaker
where behavioural change is central (which is more difficult to legislate for).

Better, more coordinated plans are needed …

While targets certainly help define the desired outcomes, they only provide part of the
picture. Across all four themes, there are some key gaps and weaknesses in the
array of plans that aim to translate the vision into prioritised actions. Again, energy is
better served than the others but in the area of resource management, plans are
relatively poorly integrated with some notable gaps (eg industrial/commercial waste).

What emerges from a conversation about future infrastructure requirements is the
realisation that the themes of energy, transport/connectivity, resource management
and the built environment are all closely inter-related. This brings opportunities for
stronger integration (eg electric vehicles as an energy storage solution; channelling
fibre optic cables through sewers) but also highlights the challenges of delivering
better, more coordinated plans.

Prioritisation is vital …

In every theme, policy and delivery priorities need to be more effectively established
than at present. Beyond the relevant plans (where a very long list of priorities is often
identified), effective mechanisms are needed to agree and communicate strategic
priorities on an ongoing basis. There is a sense that Scotland has too many
decision-making groups across complex layers of governance and unsurprisingly, it
is difficult to achieve consensus on what the genuine priorities should be.

But effective, joined-up execution of plans matters most …

Visions, plans and targets are all necessary, but not sufficient in themselves. What
matters most is that we collectively execute our plans.

In a number of senses there is a need to more effectively coordinate delivery of
prioritised actions across Scotland.        First, greater clarity is required about
responsibilities for delivering national targets and plans. In energy, for example,
relevant plans need not only set out the targets and direction of change but also
identify how the ambitions will be realised and by whom. It is currently unclear how
the renewable heat target can be delivered in the absence of detailed action plans
below the Scottish level, for example.

Second, coordinated delivery is needed in complex areas involving multiple
organisations and where ‘silo thinking’ has been unsuccessful in the past. Smarter
approaches to linking planning and housing (to deliver district heating, for instance),
or designing closed-loop supply chains to maximise resource efficiency are good
examples.

And let’s not forget that this is fundamentally about people …

It is often easy to focus on the investment or technologies required in developing low
carbon infrastructure and to neglect the behavioural dimension. Arguably, it is the
‘people dimension’ that is most uncertain and most difficult to directly influence – and
consequently, the trickiest element of the low carbon transition. Whether it be
householders being willing to invest in retrofit building improvements; urban residents
tolerating streets being dug up for transport improvements; or consumers accepting
sludge waste being used as agricultural fertiliser, public perceptions and behaviours
are central to this issue.



Recommendations for action

One of the key insights from this event was that Scotland already has sufficient
groups and organisations in place to be able to address the issues identified. But
where there are issues demanding attention it is often because:

   (a)     we are not able to effectively implement our plans; and/or
   (b)     we have failed to make the right connections (across Scotland, across
           organisations, across different aspects of Scotland) to ensure joined-up
           delivery.

The following pages summarise the priority issues that emerged in discussions and
make targeted recommendations about who should take the lead in addressing each.
This is not a comprehensive assessment of the priority issues that need to be tackled
with some measure of priority but given the knowledge and experience of the
individuals involved, and the organisations they represent, it provides a clear steer as
to the most important next steps.

But first, it is worth highlighting the key common issues that relate to all four
infrastructure themes discussed:

   1. Strategic infrastructure ‘mapping’ – A comprehensive set of clear ‘route
      maps’ for each theme is currently lacking – although some themes are better
      served than others. There was a strong sense from participants that they lack
      a strategic overview of both the delivery priorities as well as organisational
      roles in realising these.
      Recommended action: It was suggested that we need a high-level
      ‘mapping’ of our strategic infrastructure priorities for each theme (Lead:
      Scottish Government Strategy Unit?).

   2. Interconnectedness – The close integration needed across all infrastructure
      themes in delivering low carbon solutions was a strong theme throughout the
      event.
      Recommended action: While there are many groups and bodies responsible
      for “their” particular aspects of infrastructure planning and delivery, we need
      to oblige them all to think in integrated and systemic ways.               What
      opportunities could be addressed by thinking laterally and connecting with
      other relevant discussions ? If a small nation like Scotland cannot join things
      up then who can ? (Action: All groups and delivery bodies).

   3. Decentralised systems – Without exception, achieving a transition to a low
      carbon Scotland for all four infrastructure themes will require a relative shift
      from current, centralised approaches to much more decentralised systems.
      This shift will require new technologies, new approaches to integration and
      new business models. The shift will play out over the next two decades but
      we can start now. Given the complexities of designing new systems from a
      top-down perspective, the only viable method is to experiment with locally-
      based pilots and demonstration projects. These allow innovation at a
      manageable scale and level of risk, either failing quickly (and learning from
      failure) or the positive lessons being rapidly scaled up across Scotland and
      beyond.
      Recommended action: All relevant groups and delivery bodies should
      consider how they can actively support locally-based pilots as a means of
      developing decentralised systems (Action: All groups and delivery bodies).

   4. Public support – Infrastructure developments are often at the ‘sharp end’ of
      the low carbon transition in that they are frequently highly visible, disruptive
      and contentious. More positively, low carbon infrastructure is both a driver
      and enabler of behavioural changes, and therefore a necessary ‘pump primer’
      of wider change.        Scotland’s public sector bodies responsible for
      infrastructure development need to ‘manage’ public engagement in much
      smarter ways to avoid unanticipated delays in major developments.
      Recommended action: A ‘best practice’ toolkit (informed by the Scottish
      Government’s climate change behaviours research) could be developed and
      shared widely across public bodies to ensure broader public engagement and
      support (Lead: Scottish Government Social Research Team).

Add something here about the Land Use Strategy ??
TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE – RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION

                          ISSUE                                              PROPOSED ACTIONS                             LEAD RESPONSIBILITY          CONSULTING WITH

Prioritisation – The process of agreeing funding               What is the action ? Explain the rationale for funding        Scottish Government        Transport Scotland
priorities is not always clear, resulting in policy tensions   priorities and/or communicate this better ? Change         (Infrastructure Investment         CoSLA
(eg current Scottish Government priorities focus on            the funding priorities ?     Or present prioritised                   Plan)                 2020 Group
addressing gaps in the road and rail networks rather than      proposals over a longer time period (a portfolio of
the 12 transport proposals within the RPP)                     low/higher carbon investments) ?
Capital costs – It is currently unclear how the 12 RPP         Is this addressed by the Infrastructure Investment            Scottish Government          2020 Group ?
transport proposals and next-generation digital                Plan at all ?                                              (Infrastructure Investment
infrastructure can be financed                                                                                                       Plan)
Active travel – Slow progress is being made in                 Better communicate the RPP vision to influence local                 CoSLA                     SSN
increasing uptake of active travel options (eg walking,        authority planning and funding decisions in support of
cycling)                                                       active travel. Implement measures to influence public
                                                               uptake of active travel options
Joined-up solutions – A lack of integration across             Identify and prioritise potential solutions for                   2020 Group             Transport Scotland
current transport infrastructure impedes uptake of public      strengthening integration (eg accelerating plans for                                    Scottish Government
transport                                                      integrated ticketing). Undertake an initial cost/benefit
                                                               analysis to inform the selection of potential options.
Electric vehicles – Very slow uptake of electric vehicles      Explore and address barriers through fiscal and              Scottish Government            2020 Group
(partly owing to higher cost) is hindering the development     regulatory measures. Drive market demand through                                         Transport Scotland
and roll-out of charging point infrastructure. Other issues    public sector fleet conversion. Ensure joined-up
include need for clean electricity sources and associated      delivery between energy and transport infrastructure
grid capacity, and challenges of implementing charging         bodies.      Promote pilots to overcome issues
infrastructure in urban areas                                  surrounding retrofitting of charging infrastructure.

Freight modal shift – Need additional facilities to            Identify and address options for influencing modal               2020 Group ?            Transport Scotland
encourage freight movement by lower carbon means               shift of freight transport eg set targets to drive                                      Scottish Government
(rail, water) rather than by road. Local load consolidation    change.
centres are also required.
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE – RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION

                        ISSUE                                            PROPOSED ACTIONS                            LEAD RESPONSIBILITY       CONSULTING WITH

Renewable Heat – It is unclear how delivery of the target   Establish a clear mechanism for managing the
(12% renewable heat by 2020) will be achieved. No           delivery of the target (and subsequent targets) across
targets have been set beyond 2020. [Why is the              local authorities and other organisations
Renewable Heat Action Plan ineffective??]

Delayed planning consents – Achieving renewable             Identify solutions to help streamline planning             Scottish Government
energy targets will be hindered if the planning system      decisions while maintaining the need for wider public        Planning Dept.
isn’t streamlined for grid upgrades and other               consultation
developments
Supply chain bottlenecks – We need to take corrective       Undertake and maintain a strategic review of               Scottish Enterprise ?
action to minimise supply chain bottlenecks eg cables for   potential supply chain bottlenecks over a 3 – 5 year
grid enhancements                                           timescale
Demonstration projects – Many solutions to joined-up        Create a series of ‘whole system’ pilots in self-          Scottish Government     Private sector operators
delivery of decarbonised energy systems, including          contained geographic areas (eg island communities)           Energy Team ?
potential new business models, are yet to be identified.    to pilot new approaches.
Hydrogen – The role of hydrogen in Scotland’s energy        Commission a study (or series of studies) to
mix is unclear in the 2020/30s.                             investigate the potential role of hydrogen together
                                                            with likely barriers, opportunities and enablers
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT INFRASTRUCTURE – RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION

                         ISSUE                                            PROPOSED ACTIONS                            LEAD RESPONSIBILITY         CONSULTING WITH

Strategic coordination and prioritisation – Integration      Identify an existing group that can be responsible for               ?                 Local authorities
in plan-making (relating to resource prevention, re-use      having an ongoing strategic integration and review                                   Zero Waste Scotland
and recycling and energy from waste) is often weak           role for resource prevention, re-use and recycling and                                      SEPA
together with weak coordination in delivery. Mechanisms      energy from waste. It should also have a mandate to
for strategic prioritisation are currently unclear.          agree strategic delivery priorities for Scotland
                                                             clarifying public/private sector roles, communicate
                                                             these across relevant organisations.

Industrial and commercial waste – There is currently         Develop a series of targets to drive change to 2025 in      Scottish Government      Zero Waste Scotland
no target for the reduction and re-use of waste from         the first instance (similar timescales to other waste
industrial/commercial sources.                               reduction targets).

Waste water treatment – Treatment of waste water to          Undertake a review of the options for balancing water          Scottish Water        Scottish Government
drinking quality standards is a highly energy-intensive      quality and energy/carbon use, taking a balanced                                             SEPA
activity.                                                    approach to the risks involved.

Agricultural waste and water issues – There is               Ensure that land-based interests are directly involved   Scottish Government Rural          SEPA
currently insufficient attention given to the land-based     in relevant groups/discussions. Review the scope for      & Environment Division
sector in managing resources.                                additional regulatory measures.

Drainage and flood management – In the past the level        Ensure an integrated approach to managing drainage       Scottish Flood Management     Local authorities
of integration between relevant plans has been relatively    and flooding issues across Scotland, and identify             Advisory Group ?
weak.                                                        ways of accelerating this process

Role of the planning system – A lack of coordination         Identify solutions to ensure stronger coordination          Scottish Government            CoSLA
between planning authorities together with timidity to use   between planning authorities when considering                  Planning Dept
available powers often hinders the implementation of         ‘competing’ proposals. Ensure planning authorities
more sustainable developments.                               use planning conditions to drive the implementation
                                                             of low carbon infrastructure solutions.
Demonstration projects – Many solutions to the               Identify a series of community-based pilots and                      ?               Scottish Government
delivery of integrated, ‘closed loop’ resource               examplar projects to help identify new solutions which                               Zero Waste Scotland
management systems are yet to be identified.                 should then be shared widely and scaled up across                                      Local authorities
                                                             Scotland.                                                                                    SEPA
                                                                                                                                                   Private operators
BUILT ENVIRONMENT TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE – RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION

                         ISSUE                                             PROPOSED ACTIONS                             LEAD RESPONSIBILITY        CONSULTING WITH

Incentivising energy efficiency improvements –               Review current solutions for incentivising energy                2020 Group            Scottish Government
Government policy interventions are effective in             efficiency investments (eg Green Deal – longer
stimulating householders’ investment in energy efficiency    payback periods). Explore additional solutions for
(eg FITs, RHI). But there are still barriers to investment   addressing barriers with the aim of radically
for mainstream consumers.                                    increasing the uptake.

Procurement – Current sustainable procurement                Actively use procurement as a tool to drive innovation       Scottish Government              CoSLA
guidelines are not always implemented consistently           and product development in sustainable construction                                            SSN
across    local  authorities, resulting in ‘missed           methods and practices.                                                                 Construction Scotland
opportunities’ in driving innovation and product
development.

Decentralised energy – The development of new,               Develop a series of pilot / demonstration projects to        Scottish Government              CoSLA
decentralised   energy  solutions   offers    genuine        help bring low carbon technologies closer to the                                       Construction Scotland
opportunities to develop relevant technologies and           market and increase their visibility to the construction
address community concerns over energy security.             industry, consumers and insurers.

Off-site construction opportunities – Off-site               Explore current and potential future opportunities for       Construction Scotland   Scottish Forestry & Timber
construction using locally-sourced materials offers a        off-site construction using locally-sourced materials                                Technologies Advy. Group
particular economic opportunity for Scotland                                                                                                                SE/HIE

Evidence-base and tools – The construction and               Review and address current gaps in the evidence              Construction Scotland            SE/HIE
related industries need the right tools and information in   base (eg around commercial property) and ‘decision
order to inform decision-making.                             making tools’ (eg to calculate investment returns and
                                                             payback periods)
                                                            Annex A
Participants

Name                  Organisation                       Workshop

David Wilson          Scottish Government               Rapporteur

Gordon McGregor       Scottish Power                       Energy
Carroll Baxton        HIE                                  Energy
Amie Fulton           COSLA                                Energy
Kirsty Lewin          Scottish Government                  Energy
David Robson          Scottish Government                  Energy
Neil Kitching         Scottish Enterprise                  Energy
Colin Bell            Scottish Enterprise                  Energy
Murray Bainbridge     Scottish Enterprise                  Energy

Terry Vogt            First Group                        Transport
Lorraine Fitzgerald   Adaptation Scotland (SCCIP)        Transport
Ross Nimmo            BAA                                Transport
Sam Gardner           WWF                                Transport
Katherine Falconer    Transport Scotland                 Transport
David Byers           Scottish Enterprise                Transport
Martin Wight          Scottish Enterprise                Transport

Mark Williams         Scottish Water                   Resource mgt.
Joanna Muse           SEPA                             Resource mgt.
Diane Duncan          HIE                              Resource mgt.
George Ponton         Scottish Water                   Resource mgt.
David Donnelly        Hutton Institute                 Resource mgt.
Janet Egdell          Scottish Government              Resource mgt.
Jack Davies           Scottish Enterprise              Resource mgt.
Clair Wright          Scottish Enterprise              Resource mgt.
Ewan Mearns           Scottish Enterprise              Resource mgt.
Jude Maxwell          Scottish Enterprise              Resource mgt.

Clive Mitchell        SNH                             Built environment
John Sheridan         Scottish Construction Forum     Built environment
Sean Smith            Napier                          Built environment
Rufus Logan           BRE                             Built environment
Craig McLaren         Royal Town Planning Institute   Built environment
Andy Kerr             Centre for Climate Change       Built environment
Gordon Cunningham     SDS                             Built environment
Andrew Bruce          Scottish Futures Trust          Built environment
Graham Marchbank      Scottish Government             Built environment
David Fotheringham    Scottish Government             Built environment
Simon Longland        Scottish Enterprise             Built environment
John Crawford         Scottish Enterprise             Built environment

				
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