RESEARCH REPORT SCI99.COM ISSUE NUMBER 165 Jun 21, 2012 WEEKLY PETROCHEMICAL MARKET RESEARCH REPORT Biggest Movers This Week, Yuan/mt Change Change Product Prior Week Current Week (price) (percent) China-origin LPG 5460 5805 +345 +6.32 Methanol 2690 2850 +160 +5.95 PX 1207 1267 +60 +4.97 SBS 15800 16500 +700 +4.43 Butadiene 1850 1930 +80 +4.32 Crylic Acid 9600 9000 -600 -6.25 Sulphuric Acid 450 425 -25 -5.56 Butyl Acrylate 11900 11400 -500 -4.20 ECH 10900 10500 -400 -3.67 Acrylonitrile 11600 11200 -400 -3.45 Monomers Ethylene: 2# cracking unit at Asian Monomer Prices, USD/mt Formosa stopped production for Change overhaul and ethylene prices went Product Jun 20 Jun 13 (price) up in Asian market. The ethylene Ethylene 906.5 891.5 +15 market will edge higher. Propylene 1205.5 1184.5 +21 Propylene: Limited availability pushed up prices in China market Butadiene 1930 1850 +80 and sparse imported resource Naphtha 734.91 740.62 -5.7 quotations advanced. Lacking advantages, the propylene market is likely to correct on the downward trend later. Butadiene: China butadiene appreciation and active transactions drove up Asian butadiene prices. Under the appreciation expectations, butadiene USD offers will continue jumping this week. Partial traders were reluctant to sell and transactions were fair. Naphtha: As global oil prices fluctuated downward, Asian naphtha prices were on the decline after the slight price rise this week. Owing to the sufficient supply and low demand, transactions remained soft. As of June 16, Japan naphtha inventory gained to 1,630,000 kiloliters from 1,590,000 kiloliters last week. Only two transactions were settled this week that Lukoil bought H1 Sept shiploads from British Petroleum Co., Ltd. at $762/mt while Vitol purchased H1 Sept shiploads from Glencore at $735/mt. RESEARCH REPORT Aromatics Benzene: Downstream operating rate Domestic Aromatics Prices, Yuan/mt went down and transactions seemed Product Jun 14 Jun 21 Change (price) light. Given the soft external news, Benzene 7600 7500 -100 difficulties existed in settling Toluene 7650 7850 +200 transactions. Benzene market will Xylene 7825 7925 +100 operate on the downward trend next Styrene 9150 9500 +350 week. Toluene: Commodity holders held more intentions to push up prices and transactions in small quantities added, also contract prices gained. Toluene market is likely to correct on the downward trend next week. Xylene: Holder confidence a bit increased and quotations advanced but buy sentiment improved at a slow pace. It is predicted that xylene market will undergo adjustment next week. Styrene: The improved external environment lifted buy sentiment and Jiangsu market enhanced. Players should continue paying attention to oil prices and external environment next week. Intermediates and Chemical Fiber Raw Materials PTA: Internal and external Domestic Intermediate and Chemical Fiber Raw Materials environment both seemed Prices, Yuan/mt, USD/mt unfavorable. Under these Change Product Jun 14 Jun 21 conditions, it was hard to (price) restrain the downtrend of PX (CFR PET market. The PTA 1207 1267 +60 Taiwan) market continued inching PTA 7050 7100 +50 down this week and it will CPL 18300 18500 +200 fluctuate within a narrow AN 11600 11200 -400 range next week. CPL: Semi-dull PET Given the unstable external 8700 8850 +150 Chip environment, downstream players watched out for purchase and the CPL market maintained downward adjustment within the week. The CPL market will go downward within a narrow range next week. AN: Panic sentiment spread throughout the market so traders rushed to sell goods. Accordingly, AN prices kept receding. The AN market will remain declining next week. PET Chip: Owing to collapsed feedstock prices and weak end-user demand, PET chip prices easily slipped below Yuan 9,000/mt. Considering the lessened operating rates of chip spinning enterprises, the chip market will maintain the soft trend. Phenols, Ketones and Downstream Products Domestic Phenols, Ketones and Downstream Products Prices, Yuan/mt Product Jun 14 Jun 21 Change (price) RESEARCH REPORT Phenol: Transactions Phenol 9500 9500 0 performed stalemated Acetone 6650 6850 +200 this week and insiders ECH 10900 10500 -400 held stronger bearish Bisphenol A 12000 11950 -50 sentiment. Market will Epoxy Resin (E-51) 18600 18000 -600 fluctuate downward next week. Acetone: Prices jumped, however, demand improved at a slow pace. Market will fluctuate next week. BPA: The market softened and downstream demand lacked driving force to pick up, also spots transactions were characterized by a situation-“having a price but no sales”. The market will continue fluctuating next week. ECH: End-user demand was weak, so most plants reduced prices but the effect failed. Spots Transactions on the whole were lukewarm and ECH prices will continue sliding next week. Epoxy Resin: Epoxy resin prices were negotiated lower on the back of negative upstream and downstream market and the market will encounter inventory pressure. The market will maintain the downtrend next week. Acids and Esters Glacial Acetic Acid: Domestic Acids and Esters Prices, Yuan/mt market continued Product Jun 14 Jun 21 Change (price) dipping this week but Glacial Acetic Acid 2800 2765 -35 buying interest increased Ethyl Acetate 6050 5850 -200 somewhat at such price Butyl Acetate 8250 8050 -200 levels, trader sentiment Acrylic Acid 9600 9000 -600 stabilized to some extent. Butyl Acrylate 11900 11400 -500 Ethyl Acetate: plants activated to sell on the back of stocks, downstream buyers were sidelined and buying interest needed time to recover. Butyl Acetate: weak tendency persisted with market prices dropping to the cost level, and market was expected to stay in the bottom. Acrylic Acid: prices couldn’t stop slumping during the week and might hit below Yuan 9,000/mt in the short term. Butyl Acrylate: some plants were faced with large inventories amid slow consumption, and market was anticipated to lower further. Chemical Fibers Polyester Staple Fiber: market returned to quietness after a bunch of transactions, and might edge lower if downstream demand showed no improvements. Polyester Filament Yarn: market would remain under adjustment on the back of price fall upstream and low operation rates downstream. PA6 Chip: feedstock CPL market was thin, along with hesitant buying mood from downstream buyers, market would remain weak next week. Acrylic Staple Fiber: settlement prices for the month would be published; bearish sentiment was thickening over the market amid sluggish sale for spot goods, market might go soft next week. Spandex: end textile was still unsalable with downstream buying indication disappearing, market would move downward next week. Viscose Staple Fiber: selling pressure alleviated somewhat due to earlier bulk orders and enlarged RESEARCH REPORT overhaul fundamental, mainstream prices were low for now and market was weighed on by wait-and-see sentiment. Domestic Chemical Fibers Prices Yuan/mt Change Product Jun 14 Jun 21 (price) Polyester Staple Fiber(1.4D*38mm) 9900 9775 -125 Polyester Filament Yarn (POY150D/48F) 9700 9700 0 PA6 Chip(High Speed Spinning) 21200 20800 -400 Acrylic Staple Fiber(1.5D*38mm) 16950 16950 0 Spandex(40D) 43800 43800 0 Viscose Staple Fiber(1.5D) 14800 14550 -250 Chemical Additives Pathalic Anhydride: Domestic Chemical Additive Prices, Yuan/mt Market trading was plain Product Jun 14 Jun 21 Change (price) with rare downstream Pathalic Anhydride 9900 9600 -300 inquiries. The overall trend DOP 11900 11500 -400 is weak amid pessimistic Zinc Oxide 14800 14800 0 sentiment. DOP: Holders Carbon Black 5800 5600 0 lacked confidence and Sulphur 1560.81 1553.73 -7.08 transactions were mostly at low prices and deals were typically in small amount. Carbon Black: Feedstock coal tar prices stopped dropping, but downstream demand was soft. Producers quoted prices stable temporarily. The market is still expected to fall in the near term. Zinc Oxide: Zinc prices corrected at lows and the zinc oxide market shocked within narrow range. Plant sales were light due to poor downstream demand. The trading will remain weak in the off season. Sulfur: The domestic market was still sluggish and prices at partial refineries slipped. International sulfur prices declined and the export of phosphatic fertilizer was underperformed. The sulfur market is not optimistic as lacking support. Organic Alcohols Domestic Organic Alcohol Prices, Yuan/mt Change Product Jun 14 Jun 21 (price) Methanol 2690 2850 +160 Ethylene Glycol 6350 6300 -50 Diethylene Glycol 6100 6130 +30 N-Butanol 9600 9700 +100 RESEARCH REPORT Methanol: Large traders 2-Ethyl Hexanol 11400 11300 -100 grasped most resources and made speculations actively. The coastal methanol market moved up. The market is predicted to rise further in the short term. MEG: With uncertain external environment and sluggish downstream polyester demand, the future market will continue running at lows. DEG: The surrounding environment was indefinite and market fundamentals were still soft. The market is expected to be range-bound next week. NBA: Feedstock and speculation supported the market to pick up a little this week. However, downstream markets all dropped and surroundings were uncertain. The future market will remain shocking at lows. 2-EH: Tight resources bolstered prices, but the slipping downstream market may attack prices to fluctuate at lows next week. Polyurethane Raw Materials TDI: The coming off Domestic Polyurethane Raw Materials Prices, Yuan/mt season and production Product Jun 14 Jun 21 Change (price) recover intensified TDI 21900 21600 -300 negative effects. The market is likely to fall Polymeric MDI 18100 17750 -350 next week. Polymeric Pure MDI 22500 22500 0 MDI: Demand was Propylene Oxide 10000 10400 +400 dismal and the future Polyether Polyol 11000 11200 +200 supply is expected to Adipic Acid 10150 9975 -175 increase. The market will continue slipping amid Butanone 7950 7950 0 bearish sentiment. Adipic BDO 14000 14000 0 Acid: Supply and demand was imbalanced, but the market is predicted to be in narrow consolidation under rigid cost support. Butanone: Market atmosphere warmed up gradually with stabilized surroundings. It is predicted that the market will have small bounce next week. Propylene Oxide: Producer sales were smooth due to active downstream purchasing. Prices rebounded and are expected to rise slightly next week. Pure MDI: Although demand was poor, tight supply was still in favor of the market. Prices will correct at highs in the near term. Polyether Polyol: The rebound of PO supported the polyester market to warm up. Producers raised prices, but downstream purchasing was mediocre. The market is expected to slightly rise next week. BDO: Partial plants controlled production and made firm offers, but the supply-demand conflict was still fierce. The market will continue the weak trend in the short term. Inorganic Acids Sulfuric Acid: Prices drifted Domestic Inorganic Acids Prices, Yuan/mt lower amid thin trading. Product Jun 14 Jun 21 Change (price) Feedstock prices fell and Sulfuric Acid 450 425 -25 demand was weak. The acid Nitric Acid 1750 1700 -50 RESEARCH REPORT market is anticipated to correct at lows next week. Nitric Acid: Prices slumped with rare transactions. Wit bleak aniline demand and steady supply, the acid market will experience narrow fluctuations next week.
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