MARKET RESEARCH REPORT by KLNS4Q

VIEWS: 20 PAGES: 6

									RESEARCH REPORT

  SCI99.COM                                                           ISSUE NUMBER 165


                                                                        Jun 21, 2012


 WEEKLY PETROCHEMICAL MARKET RESEARCH REPORT



                             Biggest Movers This Week, Yuan/mt
                                                                        Change       Change
         Product                Prior Week         Current Week
                                                                        (price)     (percent)
     China-origin LPG              5460                 5805             +345          +6.32
         Methanol                  2690                 2850             +160          +5.95
            PX                     1207                 1267              +60          +4.97
            SBS                    15800               16500             +700          +4.43
         Butadiene                 1850                 1930              +80          +4.32
        Crylic Acid                9600                 9000              -600         -6.25
      Sulphuric Acid                450                  425              -25          -5.56
      Butyl Acrylate               11900                11400             -500         -4.20
           ECH                     10900               10500              -400         -3.67
       Acrylonitrile               11600                11200             -400         -3.45


Monomers

Ethylene: 2# cracking unit at
                                                    Asian Monomer Prices, USD/mt
Formosa stopped production for
                                                                                        Change
overhaul and ethylene prices went       Product           Jun 20         Jun 13
                                                                                         (price)
up in Asian market. The ethylene
                                        Ethylene          906.5           891.5            +15
market      will   edge     higher.
                                       Propylene         1205.5          1184.5            +21
Propylene: Limited availability
pushed up prices in China market       Butadiene          1930            1850             +80
and sparse imported resource            Naphtha          734.91          740.62            -5.7
quotations advanced. Lacking advantages, the propylene market is likely to correct on the
downward trend later. Butadiene: China butadiene appreciation and active transactions drove up
Asian butadiene prices. Under the appreciation expectations, butadiene USD offers will continue
jumping this week. Partial traders were reluctant to sell and transactions were fair. Naphtha: As
global oil prices fluctuated downward, Asian naphtha prices were on the decline after the slight
price rise this week. Owing to the sufficient supply and low demand, transactions remained soft.
As of June 16, Japan naphtha inventory gained to 1,630,000 kiloliters from 1,590,000 kiloliters
last week. Only two transactions were settled this week that Lukoil bought H1 Sept shiploads from
British Petroleum Co., Ltd. at $762/mt while Vitol purchased H1 Sept shiploads from Glencore at
$735/mt.
RESEARCH REPORT

Aromatics

Benzene: Downstream operating rate
                                                     Domestic Aromatics Prices, Yuan/mt
went down and transactions seemed
                                            Product       Jun 14       Jun 21    Change (price)
light. Given the soft external news,
                                            Benzene        7600         7500          -100
difficulties  existed    in     settling
                                            Toluene        7650         7850         +200
transactions. Benzene market will
                                             Xylene        7825         7925         +100
operate on the downward trend next
                                            Styrene        9150         9500         +350
week. Toluene: Commodity holders
held more intentions to push up prices and transactions in small quantities added, also contract
prices gained. Toluene market is likely to correct on the downward trend next week. Xylene:
Holder confidence a bit increased and quotations advanced but buy sentiment improved at a slow
pace. It is predicted that xylene market will undergo adjustment next week. Styrene: The
improved external environment lifted buy sentiment and Jiangsu market enhanced. Players should
continue paying attention to oil prices and external environment next week.


Intermediates and Chemical Fiber Raw Materials

PTA: Internal and external        Domestic Intermediate and Chemical Fiber Raw Materials
environment both seemed                           Prices, Yuan/mt, USD/mt
unfavorable. Under these                                                           Change
                                     Product         Jun 14           Jun 21
conditions, it was hard to                                                          (price)
restrain the downtrend of           PX (CFR
PET market. The PTA                                    1207            1267           +60
                                     Taiwan)
market continued inching               PTA             7050            7100           +50
down this week and it will             CPL            18300           18500          +200
fluctuate within a narrow              AN             11600           11200          -400
range next week. CPL:             Semi-dull PET
Given the unstable external                            8700            8850          +150
                                       Chip
environment,      downstream
players watched out for purchase and the CPL market maintained downward adjustment within the
week. The CPL market will go downward within a narrow range next week. AN: Panic sentiment
spread throughout the market so traders rushed to sell goods. Accordingly, AN prices kept
receding. The AN market will remain declining next week. PET Chip: Owing to collapsed
feedstock prices and weak end-user demand, PET chip prices easily slipped below Yuan 9,000/mt.
Considering the lessened operating rates of chip spinning enterprises, the chip market will
maintain the soft trend.


Phenols, Ketones and Downstream Products

                              Domestic Phenols, Ketones and Downstream Products Prices,
                                                      Yuan/mt
                                 Product             Jun 14        Jun 21       Change (price)
RESEARCH REPORT

Phenol:      Transactions            Phenol              9500           9500                0
performed      stalemated           Acetone              6650           6850             +200
this week and insiders                ECH               10900          10500              -400
held stronger bearish             Bisphenol A           12000          11950               -50
sentiment. Market will Epoxy Resin (E-51)               18600          18000              -600
fluctuate downward next
week. Acetone: Prices jumped, however, demand improved at a slow pace. Market will fluctuate
next week. BPA: The market softened and downstream demand lacked driving force to pick up,
also spots transactions were characterized by a situation-“having a price but no sales”. The market
will continue fluctuating next week. ECH: End-user demand was weak, so most plants reduced
prices but the effect failed. Spots Transactions on the whole were lukewarm and ECH prices will
continue sliding next week. Epoxy Resin: Epoxy resin prices were negotiated lower on the back
of negative upstream and downstream market and the market will encounter inventory pressure.
The market will maintain the downtrend next week.


Acids and Esters

Glacial Acetic Acid:
                                        Domestic Acids and Esters Prices, Yuan/mt
market          continued
                                  Product             Jun 14        Jun 21       Change (price)
dipping this week but
                            Glacial Acetic Acid        2800          2765              -35
buying interest increased
                               Ethyl Acetate           6050          5850             -200
somewhat at such price
                               Butyl Acetate           8250          8050             -200
levels, trader sentiment
                                Acrylic Acid           9600          9000             -600
stabilized to some extent.
                               Butyl Acrylate          11900         11400            -500
Ethyl Acetate: plants
activated to sell on the back of stocks, downstream buyers were sidelined and buying interest
needed time to recover. Butyl Acetate: weak tendency persisted with market prices dropping to
the cost level, and market was expected to stay in the bottom. Acrylic Acid: prices couldn’t stop
slumping during the week and might hit below Yuan 9,000/mt in the short term. Butyl Acrylate:
some plants were faced with large inventories amid slow consumption, and market was anticipated
to lower further.


Chemical Fibers

Polyester Staple Fiber: market returned to quietness after a bunch of transactions, and might edge
lower if downstream demand showed no improvements. Polyester Filament Yarn: market would
remain under adjustment on the back of price fall upstream and low operation rates downstream.
PA6 Chip: feedstock CPL market was thin, along with hesitant buying mood from downstream
buyers, market would remain weak next week. Acrylic Staple Fiber: settlement prices for the
month would be published; bearish sentiment was thickening over the market amid sluggish sale
for spot goods, market might go soft next week. Spandex: end textile was still unsalable with
downstream buying indication disappearing, market would move downward next week. Viscose
Staple Fiber: selling pressure alleviated somewhat due to earlier bulk orders and enlarged
RESEARCH REPORT

overhaul fundamental, mainstream prices were low for now and market was weighed on by
wait-and-see sentiment.

                           Domestic Chemical Fibers Prices Yuan/mt
                                                                                        Change
                     Product                          Jun 14           Jun 21
                                                                                        (price)
      Polyester Staple Fiber(1.4D*38mm)                 9900            9775              -125
   Polyester Filament Yarn (POY150D/48F)                9700            9700               0
       PA6 Chip(High Speed Spinning)                   21200           20800              -400
       Acrylic Staple Fiber(1.5D*38mm)                 16950           16950               0
                 Spandex(40D)                          43800           43800               0
           Viscose Staple Fiber(1.5D)                  14800           14550              -250




Chemical Additives

Pathalic       Anhydride:
                                            Domestic Chemical Additive Prices, Yuan/mt
Market trading was plain
                                       Product             Jun 14         Jun 21      Change (price)
with rare downstream
                                 Pathalic Anhydride          9900          9600             -300
inquiries. The overall trend
                                         DOP                11900          11500            -400
is weak amid pessimistic
                                      Zinc Oxide            14800         14800               0
sentiment. DOP: Holders
                                    Carbon Black             5800          5600               0
lacked confidence and
                                       Sulphur            1560.81        1553.73           -7.08
transactions were mostly at
low prices and deals were typically in small amount. Carbon Black: Feedstock coal tar prices
stopped dropping, but downstream demand was soft. Producers quoted prices stable temporarily.
The market is still expected to fall in the near term. Zinc Oxide: Zinc prices corrected at lows and
the zinc oxide market shocked within narrow range. Plant sales were light due to poor downstream
demand. The trading will remain weak in the off season. Sulfur: The domestic market was still
sluggish and prices at partial refineries slipped. International sulfur prices declined and the export
of phosphatic fertilizer was underperformed. The sulfur market is not optimistic as lacking
support.


Organic Alcohols

                                           Domestic Organic Alcohol Prices, Yuan/mt
                                                                                         Change
                                     Product             Jun 14         Jun 21
                                                                                         (price)
                                    Methanol              2690           2850              +160
                                Ethylene Glycol           6350           6300               -50
                               Diethylene Glycol          6100           6130               +30
                                    N-Butanol             9600           9700              +100
RESEARCH REPORT

Methanol: Large traders        2-Ethyl Hexanol         11400           11300            -100
grasped most resources
and made speculations actively. The coastal methanol market moved up. The market is predicted
to rise further in the short term. MEG: With uncertain external environment and sluggish
downstream polyester demand, the future market will continue running at lows. DEG: The
surrounding environment was indefinite and market fundamentals were still soft. The market is
expected to be range-bound next week. NBA: Feedstock and speculation supported the market to
pick up a little this week. However, downstream markets all dropped and surroundings were
uncertain. The future market will remain shocking at lows. 2-EH: Tight resources bolstered prices,
but the slipping downstream market may attack prices to fluctuate at lows next week.


Polyurethane Raw Materials

TDI: The coming off
                                   Domestic Polyurethane Raw Materials Prices, Yuan/mt
season and production
                                    Product            Jun 14       Jun 21        Change (price)
recover         intensified
                                      TDI              21900         21600             -300
negative effects. The
market is likely to fall        Polymeric MDI          18100         17750             -350
next week. Polymeric              Pure MDI             22500         22500               0
MDI:      Demand       was     Propylene Oxide         10000         10400             +400
dismal and the future
                               Polyether Polyol        11000         11200             +200
supply is expected to
                                  Adipic Acid          10150          9975             -175
increase. The market will
continue slipping amid             Butanone             7950          7950               0
bearish sentiment. Adipic            BDO               14000         14000               0
Acid: Supply and demand
was imbalanced, but the market is predicted to be in narrow consolidation under rigid cost support.
Butanone: Market atmosphere warmed up gradually with stabilized surroundings. It is predicted
that the market will have small bounce next week. Propylene Oxide: Producer sales were smooth
due to active downstream purchasing. Prices rebounded and are expected to rise slightly next
week. Pure MDI: Although demand was poor, tight supply was still in favor of the market. Prices
will correct at highs in the near term. Polyether Polyol: The rebound of PO supported the
polyester market to warm up. Producers raised prices, but downstream purchasing was mediocre.
The market is expected to slightly rise next week. BDO: Partial plants controlled production and
made firm offers, but the supply-demand conflict was still fierce. The market will continue the
weak trend in the short term.


Inorganic Acids

Sulfuric Acid: Prices drifted               Domestic Inorganic Acids Prices, Yuan/mt
lower amid thin trading.
                                      Product          Jun 14        Jun 21      Change (price)
Feedstock prices fell and
                                    Sulfuric Acid       450           425              -25
demand was weak. The acid
                                     Nitric Acid        1750          1700             -50
RESEARCH REPORT

market is anticipated to correct at lows next week. Nitric Acid: Prices slumped with rare
transactions. Wit bleak aniline demand and steady supply, the acid market will experience narrow
fluctuations next week.

								
To top