Probabilistische Stabiliteitsanalyse met Prostab en ProLift by uPD43Brk

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									      AN ONLINE TOOL FOR REAL-TIME ANALYSIS AND
      MANAGEMENT OF FLOOD RISKS OF DIKED AREAS


      Han Knoeff & Jos Maccabiani

      May 2008, Toronto


Delft Hydraulics, GeoDelft, the Subsurface and Groundwater unit of TNO and parts of Rijkswaterstaat have joined forces in a new independent institute for delta
technology, Deltares. Deltares combines knowledge and experience in the field of water, soil and the subsurface. We provide innovative solutions to make living
                                             in deltas, coastal areas and river basins safe, clean and sustainable.
Contents


.
Introduction

.   The Netherlands: a quick overview

.   Operational preparedness and response
    Dike safety aspects



.
Online tool: DAM

. Project description
  Functionality demonstration

Conclusions, future work and required research



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Netherlands




• 3500 km primary defences
• 14000 km of secondary defences
• ?? km of other embankments




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Typology of earthen flood defense structures

   •Primary defence: coast                    •Secondary defences




   •Primary defence: rivers                   •Other embankments




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Dike safety aspects (primary dikes)


                                      !

                                      !

        !

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Role of water boards in operational flood
management

     
Responsibility Water boards (related to dikes):
         Maintenance of dikes and levees, including

     
     
         inspection
         Technical flood management plans
         Monitoring and maintaining dike stability during

        flood events
         Communicating with Flood Emergency
         Management Organisation(s) on all dike related
         aspects

.   Input:      Forecasts of weather and water levels
.   Act:        Monitoring and forecasting of dike
                performance; no regret mitigation
                measures
.   Output:     Advice for decision makers on mitigation

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Operational tools for water boards




  FEWS NL                                   Fliwas
  Matroos/Nautboom                          HIS

  HIS                                       …

  KNMI



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Necessity of dike strength tools

   .
        
       Dikes are designed to withstand one ‘design level’ load condition
            What happens at level 20 cm higher? Or lower? How do
            priorities shift?


   .
        
       Last regular inspection shows:


           24% of dikes does not meet safety requirements
            32% has an unknown safety level

   .
        
       Soil structures can behave in unexpected ways
            How to organise the monitoring and deal with
            unexpected situations?


   .   Extreme events cause many simultaneous problems over large
       stretches of dikes

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Result of discussions with 4 water boards

   To develop a tool for (operational response teams at) water boards
   .   Give immediate insight in consequences of changed load conditions
   .   Make available all relevant data and knowledge to combat the
       threat
   .   Hide irrelevant data, depending on the scenario
   .   Perform decision support analyses
   .   Integrate dike strength in the total disaster management toolkit


                       Dike Analysis Module or DAM
   Waterboards:
   -   Delfland
   -   Schieland en de Krimpenerwaard
   -   Rivierenland
   -   Hollandse Delta

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Dike Analysis Module (DAM)
prototype
Operational dike safety




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Rapid prototyping, early stages


   GOAL:
   .   Visualise the functional requirements for the water boards
   .   Look at the technical feasibility, especially of real-time dike strength
       assessment
   .   Determine if this functionality aids the water boards during disaster
       management


   NOT:
   .   Do not spend time on designing a fancy user interface
   .   Do not spend time on designing for scalability and robustness




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4 pilot projects


1.   Coastal area
2.   River area
3.   Transition zone
4.   Secondary dikes
                                     1
                                         3
                             4               2




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Introduction




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Technical aspects


   .
        
       Fully automated geotechnical scenario’s


        
        
            Calculation pre-operational with interpolation (stability)
            Real-time calculation of every scenario (piping)
            Validated and widely used calculation methodologies

   .
        
       Decision support
            Make decision trees in advance (e.g. for the possible mitigating

           measures or inspection frequencies)
            Use DAM to show users only the relevant scenario’s




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HL Architecture of DAM




                                        Fully modular
                                        Webservices




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Conclusions & future work


   Conclusions:
   .   30 dike managers have expressed interest in a full version
   .   They also want DAM for daily dike management (scenario analyses
       for policy making, building permits, etc)


   Future work for first version:
   .   Development of robust IT architecture
   .   Interface with existing forecasting services
   .   Interface with existing databases at the water boards
   .   Scaleable and more flexible user interface



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Further research


   .   Forecasting guidelines for operational dike strength assessment
   .   Using inspection results to update dike safety forecast (Delft
       Cluster)
   .   Collecting statistics on ground water pressure build-up in relation to
       river water levels
   .   Effect of uncertainty in loads + dike strength + consequences on the
       decision making process.
   .   …
   .   Public-private partnership for research in all aspects of practical,
       operational flood management:




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Questions?




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