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									                     Seminario
                    I.N.R.C.A.
                Ancona, 14 marzo 2008




Invecchiamento della popolazione e
     fenomeni sociali correlati

                Antonio Golini
Sapienza, Università di Roma e Accademia dei Lincei
            antonio.golini@uniroma1.it
    L’allungamento della vita è stato negli ultimi decenni così
intenso e rapido da superare qualsiasi previsione o proiezione
     che era stata fatta negli ultimi decenni secolo scorso.

  In particolare, come è ben noto, non si è allungata la durata
massima della vita umana dei singoli individui, nel senso che
resta assolutamente straordinario il raggiungere o superare i
 110 anni, ma si è allungata la durata media della vita di una
       intera popolazione essendo stata eliminata quasi
   completamente la mortalità precoce, ed essendo quindi
   diventato straordinario il numero di persone che riesce a
                    superare gli 80 , 90 anni.
         Length of life (years) by major development groups,
                           1950-55/2005-10
Major areas                               1950-55             2005-10          difference         %difference

More developed regions –                           66.1                76.5              +10.4           +16
MDR
Less developed regions -                           41.1                65.4              +24.3           +59
LDR
Difference MDR less LDR                            25.0                11.1

Europe                                             65.6                74.6                +9.0          +14

Africa                                             38.4                52.8              +14.4           +38

Asia                                               41.4                69.0              +27.6           +67

Difference Europe-Asia                             25.2                 5.6

Source: our elaboration on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, New York, 2007
Popolazione 60 anni e oltre (milioni). Africa, Ue 27, Russia, Cina e India.
            1950-2005 e proiezioni al 2050 (variante media)
          450
                                  AFRICA                    UE 27                Russia                Cina           India
          400


          350


          300


          250


          200


          150


          100


           50


            0
                  1950

                         1955
                                1960
                                       1965

                                              1970
                                                     1975
                                                            1980

                                                                   1985
                                                                          1990
                                                                                  1995
                                                                                         2000
                                                                                                2005
                                                                                                        2010
                                                                                                               2015

                                                                                                                      2020
                                                                                                                             2025
                                                                                                                                    2030

                                                                                                                                           2035
                                                                                                                                                  2040
                                                                                                                                                         2045

                                                                                                                                                                2050
     Fonte: elaborazione propria su dati Onu, World Population Prospects. The 2004 Revision, New York, 2005
Popolazione 15-59 anni (milioni). Africa, Ue 27, Russia, Cina e India.
          1950-2005 e proiezioni al 2050 (variante media)
        1.200
                                 AFRICA                     UE 27                 Russia                Cina            India


        1.000



          800



          600



          400



          200



            0
                  1950
                         1955
                                1960
                                       1965
                                              1970
                                                     1975
                                                             1980
                                                                    1985
                                                                           1990
                                                                                   1995
                                                                                          2000
                                                                                                 2005
                                                                                                         2010
                                                                                                                2015
                                                                                                                       2020
                                                                                                                              2025
                                                                                                                                     2030
                                                                                                                                            2035
                                                                                                                                                   2040
                                                                                                                                                          2045
                                                                                                                                                                 2050
   Fonte: elaborazione propria su dati Onu, World Population Prospects. The 2004 Revision, New York, 2005
Popolazione 0-14 anni (milioni). Africa, Ue 27, Russia, Cina e
   India. 1950-2005 e proiezioni al 2050 (variante media)
 600
                        AFRICA                    UE 27                Russia                Cina           India


 500



 400                                                                                                                                                         TFT (numero medio figli per donna)
                                                                                                                                                                         2000-05     2045-50
                                                                                                                                                             Africa        4,98        2,52
                                                                                                                                                             Europa        1,40        1,83
 300                                                                                                                                                         Russia        1,33        1,85
                                                                                                                                                             Cina          1,70        1,85
                                                                                                                                                             India         3,07        1,85
 200



 100



   0
        1950
               1955
                      1960
                             1965

                                    1970
                                           1975
                                                  1980

                                                         1985
                                                                1990
                                                                        1995
                                                                               2000
                                                                                      2005
                                                                                              2010
                                                                                                     2015

                                                                                                            2020
                                                                                                                   2025
                                                                                                                          2030
                                                                                                                                 2035
                                                                                                                                        2040
                                                                                                                                               2045

                                                                                                                                                      2050
  Fonte: elaborazione propria su dati Onu, World Population Prospects. The 2004 Revision, New York, 2005
Current and future aging of the population: it will be unavoidable, but
    less rapid where it is currently more intense and vice versa.
          Percentage of 60+ at 2006 and its increase between 2006 and 2050


 Δ% 60+   350,0
2006-2050

          300,0
                      Africa       America Latina
          250,0
                                   Asia
          200,0
                                          Mondo

          150,0                                   Oceania


          100,0                                         Nord Amertica


           50,0                                                        Europa
                                                                                         Italia

            0,0
                  0      5        10              15          20                 25                30
                                                                                         % 60+
                                                                                         2006

                                                        Fonte: elaborazione propria su ONU, 2006
                     A synthesis of the population aging, 2006 e 2050


                           Population 60+        Percentage of total                                     Percentage in labor
                                                                       2006 to 2050 increase
Countries or area             Millions               population                                           force, about 2006

                           2006     2050          2006       2050       mln              2050              men         women

More developed regions       248          400         20          32    152,0                  61,0               22      11

Less developed regions       440         1,568           8        20        1,1               256,0               50      19
Least developed
                              40          171            5        10    131,0                 328,0               71      37
countries
World                        688         1,968        11          22        1,3               186,0               40      16

Africa                        49          193            5        10    144,0                 293,9               64      32

Asia                         375         1231            9        24    856,0                 228,3               48      18

Europe                       152          225         21          34      73,0                 48,0               15       7
America Latina and
                              51          189            9        24    138,0                 270,6               46      16
Caribbean
Nord America                  57          118         17          27      61,0                107,0               29      18

Oceania                      4,7          11,9        14          25        7,2               153,2               26      12

Italia                        15           21         26          41        6,0                40,0               13       4
                                                                       Fonte: elaborazione propria su ONU, 2006
      Un approfondimento del processo
 demografico che caratterizzerà il XXI secolo:

l’invecchiamento della popolazione e
           della forza lavoro.

  Una sfida per le società e le economie, ma
   anche una opportunità per il business
                                        Età massima individuale alla morte




                                110                in 1973 (first supercentenarian, a woman from Lazio)


                                111                in 1991 (a man from Calabria)


                                112                in 2002 (a man from Sardinia)


                                113                in 2003 (a woman from Puglia)




                                                                                            Barbi et al. (2005)




E. Barbi: “Il prolungamento della vita umana: realtà, prospettive, problemi”
     Sopravviventi su 1000 nati vivi

Italia      1961     2004     Variaz.   Variaz %
60 anni M      768      906       138         18
60 anni F      849      950       101         12


80 anni M      286      527       241         84
80 anni F      415      724       309         75
         Anni attesi di vita residua
Italia       1961     2004     Variaz.    Variaz %
60 anni M      16.7     21.4        4.7        28
60 anni F      19.3     25.8        6.5        34


80 anni M       5.7      7.8        2.1        37
80 anni F       6.4      9.8        3.4        53
  Anni vissuti dopo l’età indicata
Italia      1961     2004     Variaz.   Variaz %
60 anni M   12.826   19.338     6.563        51
60 anni F   16.386   24.510     8.124        50


80 anni M    1.630    4.111     2.480       152
80 anni F    2.656    7.095     4.439       167
                  La malattia
 (% di persone con almeno 1 malattia cronica che
   dichiarano di sentirsi “in buona salute”, 2007)


Italia       2007 M    2007 F     Differ.         Differ %
60-64 a. M      49.7       41.8             7.9         16


75+ a. M        23.3       20.5             2.8         12
                        La morte
(morti di 90 anni e oltre per stato civile e sesso, 2004)
 Italia        2004 M     2004 F     Distr.%M Distr.%F
 Single          1.610       8.132        5.6      11.8
 Coniugati       11.128      2.235       38.6       3.3
 Vedovi         15.970      58.094       55.4      84.5
 Divorziati        101        262         0.4       0.4
 Totale         28.809      68.723      100.0    100.0
 % su totale       10.6       25.3
 morti
Sopravviventi a 65 anni e loro ulteriore aspettativa
  di vita, Giappone,1951 e 2005, e Italia, 2003
        Fonte: per il Giappone: http://www.ipss.go.jp/p-info/e/S_D_I/Indip.html
                         Per l’Italia: Istat, Annuario statistico italiano 2006

   Anno           Numero di Durata della Incremento Incremento
                 sopravviventi vita residua    totale  in mesi per
                    a 65 anni   a 65 anni     in anni   ogni anno
                   (su 1.000)   (in anni)   1951-2005 di calendario
                                 Maschi
    1950-52            900         11.4
     2005              994         17.7         6.3        1.4

   Italia 2003         850              16.8
                                      Femmine
    1950-52            908              13.4
     2005              996              22.9                9.5              2.1

   Italia 2003         922                20.6
       LE PROSPETTIVE PER LA LONGEVITA’ DEGLI INDIVIDUI
A. possibili discontinuità positive              B. possibili discontinuità negative

1. successi sostanziali e ricorrenti       1. effetti negativi di accumulo di fenomeni di
   nella ricerca di base (con                 inquinamento dell’aria, dell’acqua, del
   particolare riferimento alla bio-          cibo;
   genetica e alle biotecnologie);         2. effetti iatrogeni di medicine prese lungo
2. cure efficaci, semplici, economici         decenni per contrastare le malattie
   e facilmente accessibili legate            croniche;
   alle cellule staminali,                 3. comparsa di nuove, inattese e impreviste
   all’ingegneria genetica e alle             epidemie (come può succedere o è
   nanotecologie;                             successo per l’AIDS, per il virus H5N1,
3. strumenti diagnostici ancora più           nuove forme di tubercolosi);
   efficaci e affidabili;                  4. eccessiva “venerazione” del corpo;
4. medicine testate su e prodotte          5. accresciuta diffusione di droghe, doping,
   per anziani e vecchi;                      obesità soprattutto fra le giovani
5. attività fisica lungo l’intera vita e      generazioni;
   maggior cura per il corpo;              6. mutamenti climatici di larga scala;
6. più intensa attività preventiva         7. insostenibilità del sistema di
   legata a miglioramenti nella               welfare legata all’invecchiamento
   nutrizione e negli stili di vita.          della popolazione e/o crisi
                                              economiche.
L’invecchiamento
   delle famiglie
The coexistence of several generations in a
household of a Western country and not only
    Una struttura della famiglia così
invecchiata pone anche il problema di
quale sia il contesto psicologico e sociale
nel quale cresce il bambino, problema più
che mai grande se i genitori sono separati
o divorziati.
    E quindi in prospettiva si pone il
problema di che tipo di genitori sapranno
essere questi bambini (e in particolare che
tipo di padri, per i figli di divorziati affidati
quasi sempre alla madre).
  The multiplication of the coexistence of
           several generations




   The multiplication of one-child or childless (somebody now
says childfree) families requires more and more the growth of an
intra-generational solidarity among elderly, to be implemented
side by side with the traditional inter-generational one
  A rough evaluation of three co-existent generations (population aged
 20-24, 45-49, 70-74; in thousands), 1950-2050, Italy, France, China, India
                                                   ITALY                                                                                       FRANCE
   5.000,00                                                                                     5.000,00


   4.000,00                                                                                     4.000,00


   3.000,00                                                                                     3.000,00


   2.000,00                                                                                     2.000,00


   1.000,00                                                                                     1.000,00


       0,00                                                                                         0,00
          50


                   60


                            70


                                    80


                                             90


                                                     00


                                                             10


                                                                    20


                                                                             30


                                                                                    40


                                                                                           50




                                                                                                       50


                                                                                                                60


                                                                                                                         70


                                                                                                                                 80


                                                                                                                                          90


                                                                                                                                                  00


                                                                                                                                                          10


                                                                                                                                                                 20


                                                                                                                                                                          30


                                                                                                                                                                                 40


                                                                                                                                                                                        50
        19


                 19


                          19


                                  19


                                           19


                                                   20


                                                           20


                                                                  20


                                                                           20


                                                                                  20


                                                                                         20




                                                                                                     19


                                                                                                              19


                                                                                                                       19


                                                                                                                               19


                                                                                                                                        19


                                                                                                                                                20


                                                                                                                                                        20


                                                                                                                                                               20


                                                                                                                                                                        20


                                                                                                                                                                               20


                                                                                                                                                                                      20
                                         20-24       45-49         70-74                                                              20-24       45-49         70-74




                                                  CHINA                                                                                        INDIA
   120.000,00                                                                                   120.000,00

   100.000,00                                                                                   100.000,00

    80.000,00                                                                                    80.000,00

    60.000,00                                                                                    60.000,00

    40.000,00                                                                                    40.000,00

    20.000,00                                                                                    20.000,00

         0,00                                                                                         0,00
            50


                     60


                             70


                                     80


                                              90


                                                      00


                                                             10


                                                                    20


                                                                             30


                                                                                    40


                                                                                           50




                                                                                                         50


                                                                                                                  60


                                                                                                                          70


                                                                                                                                  80


                                                                                                                                           90


                                                                                                                                                   00


                                                                                                                                                          10


                                                                                                                                                                 20


                                                                                                                                                                          30


                                                                                                                                                                                 40


                                                                                                                                                                                        50
          19


                   19


                           19


                                   19


                                            19


                                                    20


                                                           20


                                                                  20


                                                                           20


                                                                                  20


                                                                                         20




                                                                                                       19


                                                                                                                19


                                                                                                                        19


                                                                                                                                19


                                                                                                                                         19


                                                                                                                                                 20


                                                                                                                                                        20


                                                                                                                                                               20


                                                                                                                                                                        20


                                                                                                                                                                               20


                                                                                                                                                                                      20
                                          20-24       45-49         70-74                                                              20-24       45-49         70-74


Source: UN, World Population Prospects. The 2004 Revision (medium variant), New York, 2006
         Di alcune conseguenze
            biopsicosociali 1/3
  Con l’allungamento della vita e la mobilità
straordinariamente crescente, aumentano, in via
formale e informale, sincronica e diacronica:
 1.   Il numero di partner nella vita;
 2.   Il numero di famiglie nella vita
 3.   Il tipo e il numero di lavori nella vita;
 4.   Il numero di residenze nella vita.
  Saper gestire, individualmente e collettivamente,
queste straordinarie trasformazioni è, e sarà,
questione fondamentale per il benessere psicofisico
degli individui
         Di alcune conseguenze
            biopsicosociali 2/3
   Con l’allungamento della vita e la mutata
 epidemiologia sanitaria e sociale sono destinati ad
 aumentare:
1. il numero e la proporzione di malattie (in
   particolare le varie forme di demenza) che
   richiedono particolare e prolungata assistenza;
2. il numero e la proporzione di morti per tumore e
   malattie cardiocircolatorie in età molto avanzata;
3. Il numero e la proporzione di disturbi cognitivi,
   anche severi;
4. Il numero e la proporzione di disturbi di
   personalità, legati fra l’altro alla possibile difficoltà
   individuale di gestire le ripetute e intense
   transizioni della vita (di cui si è detto prima);
             Di alcune conseguenze
                biopsicosociali 3/3
   Con l’allungamento della vita e la mutata struttura della
 popolazione sono destinate ad aumentare:
1. La difficoltà di assicurare ai vecchi adeguata assistenza
   sanitaria e sociale (compresa quella burocratico-
   amministrativa), particolarmente complessa per le persone
   che vivono sole;
2. La difficoltà di adattamento, specie per le persone anziane e
   vecchie, a una crescente presenza di stranieri e a una
   crescente multiculturalità;
3. La difficoltà di assicurare ai giovani adeguate politiche per il
   loro sviluppo, per il rischio che le politiche fatte da anziani e
   vecchi tendano a proteggere eccessivamente loro stessi (il
   che in parte avviene già adesso con l’azione dei sindacati)
4. Le distanze fra le generazioni anche a causa della pervasive,
   massicce e continue innovazioni tecnologiche .
Di alcune conseguenze
   socio-economiche
Net financial position of the different age groups/cohorts in public
      administration accounts, Italy (data from Sartor, 2003)
A tentative scheme of imbalance between a population of specific age-groups and
    human resources (i. e. teachers, paediatricians, geriatricians, nurses, etc.)




                                                     (a)                                           (c)

                                               (d)


                                                                                                  (d)
                                                (b)

                                                                                                        (e)


(1)                                                            (2)


                      Time                                                                 Time

       (a) Possible trends in human and other resources according to a balance situation
       (b) Possible trends of young population
       (c) Possible trends of old population
       (d) Possible imbalances between demand and supply
       (e) Possible trends in human and other resources according to a balance situation
                      Demography, aging and GDP

           GDP           Employed             WAP
  GDP = ------------- * ---------------- * ------------- * Population
         Employed Working Age Population
                         Population
        |productivity|
        | economic components ||demographic components|
Fonte: Leanza, 2005
                                                                            GDP (current US$) in
         Demography, aging and GDP                                          billions, 2004
                                                                            source: World Bank
          GDP           Employed             WAP                            Employed in millions, 2004
                                                                            source: USA, ILO; ITALY, ISTAT
GDP = ------------- * ---------------- * ------------- * Population
       Employed Working Age Population                                      WAP (population. aged 20-
                                                                            59) in millions, 2005
                       Population                                           source: UN, population estimates

                                                                            Population in millions, 2004
          11,711.8 139.3 164.9                                              source: World Bank
11,711.8 = --------- * --------- * -------- * 293.7             USA
            139.3        164.9 293.7

           1,677.8 22.4             32.2
1,677.8 = --------- * --------- * -------- * 57.6             ITALY
            22.4        32.2        57.6

 11,711.8       84.1        0.845       0.561        293.7      USA
------------ = --------- * --------- * ---------- * --------- -----------
  1,677.8       74.9        0.696       0.559        57.6      ITALY

                                                              USA
   6.98 =       1.12    * 1.21 * 1.00          * 5.10       -----------
                                                             ITALY
             Population by broad age group: less than 15, 15-59, 60 and over
                            Italy, 1950-2050 medium variant)
                40,0




                35,0




                30,0




                25,0




                20,0




                15,0




                10,0




                 5,0
                        1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1                 0   5
                                                                      995 2000 2005 201 201 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

                0-14    12,4   12,2   12,4   12,7   13,2   13,4   12,6   1 ,1
                                                                          1     9,0    8,6    8,2    7,9    7,4    6,9    6,3    6,1    6,0    6,1    6,1    6,0    5,8
                15-59   28,9 30,3     30,9   31,8   31,9   32,4   34,3   35,1 35,7 35,9       35,5 34,9     33,8 32,7     31,2   29,0   26,5   24,1 22,5     21,6   20,8
                60+     5,8    6,2    6,8    7,6    8,7    9,6    9,6    10,4   12,0   12,8   13,8   14,4   15,4   16,0   16,7   17,9   19,0   19,9   19,8   19,2   18,2




Source: UN, World Population Prospects. The 2002 Revision (medium variant), New York, 2003
                                       ITALIAN OLDER WORKERS: EXIT AGE +
                                         EMPLOYMENT RATE ARE TOO LOW
                                      64                                                                                    Sweden
    Average exit age of labor force


                                                                                                   Portugal   Switzerland
                                      63
                                                                                         Ireland

                                      62                               Spain         Netherlands         UK

                                      61                                                      Finland                       Ø=60.5
                                                                  Germany                                     Denmark
                                                         Italy                       Czech Rep.
                                      60
                                                 Lux.        Austria            Greece
                                      59 Hungary
                                                                       France
                                                        Belgium
                                      58
                                                Slovakia
                                      57                Poland

                                                                                 Ø=41%              Stockholm Target*
                                      56
                                           20                30                 40                  50              60               70

                                                Employment rates of older workers (% of pop. 55-64)
    *EU “Stockholm” target: increase employment rate of 55 – 64 year olds to 50% by 2010

Source: EU Commission; BfS; Avenir Suisse; Murray Gendell; US CRS; Team
analysis
    Numero medio di ore lavorate per lavoratori
    di 50 + in alcuni paesi europei Fonte: indagine Share
Figure 62 - European Working Women and Men and mean daily working hours
7

    6.3
                6.1
                              6
6                                           5.8           5.8
                                                                        5.7
                                                                                                  5.6
                                                                                                                 5.5
                                                                                      5.4

                                                                                            4.9
5                                                 4.8
          4.7
                                    4.6                         4.6                                      4.6
                                                                                                                         4.5
                      4.4
                                                                                                                                 4.3

4
                                                                              3.6



3

                                                                                                                                       2.4


2
    M     F     M         F   M         F   M         F   M         F   M         F   M       F   M          F   M           F   M         F

        Aus         Ger           Svi           Sve           Fra           Ola         Dan             Sp             Ita           Gre



Source: the SHARE Project, Our Elaboration (2006)
 Aging of working age
population and work force
       Il mercato del lavoro
     Una conclusione che dal versante
         demografico sembra chiara:
in presenza di una più o meno forte attesa
     diminuzione della popolazione in età
         lavorativa, occorre lavorare
         tutti di più e più a lungo.
  Far crescere la produttività anche per
   questa via contribuisce a far crescere
    l’economia e quindi i posti di lavoro,
   pure di medio-alto profilo per i giovani,
     mantenendo alta l’occupazione dei
              giovani anziani
          EU DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION
                                IS ALREADY HERE
In the next 10 years the EU will see dramatic growth in the older population, e.g.

•   Across Europe, for the first time, people over 40 will be in the majority (in
    Italy and Germany they will be 60% of the population)

•   France will have 20% more people aged 60+

•   Spain and Germany will have 20-25% more in their 50s

... and many fewer young people e.g.:

•   Spain will see a 50% fall in people aged 20-35 (a 60% drop for 25-29 years)

•   Italy will have fewer people in literally every age group from birth to 44 years,
    with one quarter less in their 30s

•   The UK will see a big fall in 30s, early 40s (with a 20% drop in 35-45 year-olds)
             Source: International Labor Organization (ILO), Laborsta data base, Oct 2006
           DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE –
              COMPANY EFFECTS
      Some European Examples
Air France:
In 2002, it had 8,600 workers aged over 50. In 2010 it will be 16,500

BASF:
Today 55% of the workforce are aged between 35 and 50, but in 2020
the large majority (two thirds !) will be 50 to 65 years old

France Telecom
45% of the headcount in France is aged 46 to 54 (in fact, each of the 8
biggest age cohorts in the company are in exactly these ages)

Some large European banks
60% of workforce is already aged between 40 and 65

Source: Press reports, May 2007
TAKE A LOOK AT OLDER PEOPLE
       70 IS THE NEW 50
          •   HSBC study of 21,000 people aged 40
              to 79 years, across 21 countries

          •   Paid work. In OECD, 75% of people in
              their 50s and half in 60s have some

              Paid work for 70-year olds = 20% in
              USA, 1% in France (which is future?)

          •   Rethinking retirement. Many more
              men + women in 50s, early 60s plan to:

              - “work as long as possible”, or to
              - “retire at the full pension age”

          •   Older people feel healthier today.
              - People after 60 do things in past only
              for 40s / 50s e.g. sports, travel, sex

              - Only 8% of 70 year olds in OECD feel
              in poor health (3% Canada, 12% Germ)
   Il processo di invecchiamento della
popolazione e il mercato del lavoro in Italia

   I risultati di due indagini:
   - su un campione di 1000 lavoratori da 50
   a 70 anni e su 1000 pensionati da 50 a 70
   anni (luglio-ottobre 2003);
   - su un campione di 175 aziende
   (novembre 2003-febbraio 2004)
                                     Policies and opinions
Figure 7 – Companies according to evaluations about skills and aptitudes of younger
and older workers (percentage values; end 2003 – beginning 2004)
                                                                                                more positive for younger workers                   more positive for older workers
Q. 15: According to the
company’s experience,                            adaptability to innovations 90,8                                                            0.0
compare younger (<35)                                      familiarity w ith IT   90,4                                                       1.9
and older (>50) personnel                                           creativity           67,8                                                0.1
with respect to the aspects                  flexibility w ith different duties                 59,7                                               8.2
listed below
                                                      general serviceability                            42,4                                       7.5
                                                           group integration                                   33,4                                6.6
                                                            total productivity                                        19,6                               15.6
                                                                absenteeism                                           18,7                               16.4
                                                       respect of hierarchy                                           17,6                                          37.3

                                     w illingness to hard or repetitive tasks                                          17,1                                        35.4

                                              w illingness to w ork overtime                                            14,2                                       35.4
                                                            level of attention                                               10,7                                30.5
                                           w illingness to help co-w orkers                                              12,1                                     33.2
                                                           general reliability                                                9,2                                 33.6

                                                     personal responsibility                                                        3,2                                 39.8
                                 sensitivity tow ards company’s interests                                                       6,4                                       45.0
                                                                    accuracy                                                        4,6                                        51.1
                                                                ability to lead                                          11,4                                                         64.3
                                                     loyalty to the company                                                          1,8                                              65.4

Source: survey data, Department of                                           100.0       75.0          50.0           25.0                 0.0            25.0            50.0          75.0   100.0
demographic Sciences and ISFOL
                                                                                                NB: the 100 difference is represented by the ‘substantial equality
                                                     Training
  Figure 9a - Employed (aged 50-69) who have attended professional training and upgrading
  courses and period in which the course has taken place (percentage values; June-July
  2003)
  Q. 13: During your professional career, have you been involved in professional training and/or upgrading activities?
  If yes, Q.13a: When does your last course date back to?




                                                                                       1-2 years ago
                                                                                            9.7%

                              No                  Yes                                                  2-5 years ago
                                                                                                            8.4%
                            49.1%                50.9%              Less than 1 year
                                                                          ago
                                                                         21.1%                     5-10 years ago
                                                                                                        6.5%

                                                                                       More than 10 years
                                                                                              ago
                                                                                             5.3%




Source: survey data, Department of demographic Sciences and ISFOL
                               Desire of retirement
Figure 12a - Employed workers opinion about their desire and motivations for retirement
(percentage values; June-July 2003)
Q. 20: If it would only depend on you, would you retire:
                                                                     Q. 21a: As soon as possible, and why?
                                                                                                                          %
                                                                     Provided that my economic conditions are suitable    66.4
                                      As soon as
                                                                     Regardless of my economic conditions                 17.7
                                       possible
                                                                     Because of my work environment                       15.9
I don’t know                            49.2%
                                                                     Total                                               100.0
    8.2%




                                                                      Q. 21b: As late as possible, and why?
                                                                                                                           %
                                                                      Provided that my work environment is favourable      38.3
      When my                                                         In order to reach better economic conditions         31.6
                                            As late as
    contract expires                                                  Regardless of my economic conditions                 30.1
                                            possible
         25.2%                                                        Total                                               100.0
                                             17.3%



 Source: survey data, Department of demographic Sciences and ISFOL
                                      Desire of retirement
Figure 13 - The opinion of companies about their workers’ desire to anticipate retirement
(percentage values; end 2003 – beginning 2004)
Q. 22: Do you think that workers would like to anticipate retirement before achieving the legal retirement age?


                                                                                          Yes, provided that
                     Yes, they would do                                                      they receive
                         so anyway                                                       incentives from the
                            18.2%                                                              company
                                                                                                40.4%




                I don’t know
                    19.1%
                                                                    No, generally they
                                                                     would not do so
                                                                          22.4%


Source: survey data, Department of demographic Sciences and ISFOL
Età fino alla quale ci si ritiene capaci di lavorare
            Figure 14 - The opinion of employed as concern the age until which one mantains a full
            capability to work, by age
            Q.14: In your opinion, up to what age could a person at your age and with your work condition work efficiently?

                        60,0

                        50,0

                        40,0

                        30,0

                        20,0

                        10,0

                         0,0
            Respondents’ age          50-54                      55-59             60-64                  65-69

               50-54                    8,8                       2,1               0,9                    0,0
               55 -59                  26,2                       16,9              5,2                    0,0
Age group




               60-64                   39,0                       47,5             24,3                    18,8
               65-69                   17,4                       24,2             40,9                    31,3
               70 and over              8,6                       9,3              28,7                    50,0
             Source: survey data, Department of demographic Sciences and ISFOL
Alcuni elementi della strategia della
     Volkswagen per fronteggiare
 l’invecchiamento della forza lavoro

    (da una presentazione di Wilfried
   Kruger, manager-human resource
   Volkswagen Braunschweig, Milano,
   Seminario Adecco, febbraio 2006)
Prejudice of „older deficit“ and influences

         restricted efficiency of
           older employees                                      „compartmentation“
                                                                and suppression of
low flexibility            state of health                        older employees
through older           of older employees
  employees                                       assignment of older
                                              employees adding little value
                  high personnel                                                loss of
     high           expenditure                                               knowledge
health-related                      advancing productivity by
                                                                              and experts
absenteeism                          „high-tech“- investment

      low                                                         low performer
   motivation         production just for young                     discussion
                         and fit employees
                                                           Early retirement
                                                         programme - control
         lower qualification for
           older employees
                                          cancellation agreement for older employees –
                                                           high costs
              Volkswagen - Demografical development – forecast by 2024

                                                                          average age: 45
                                                                                                                     problem:
number of employees




                      250      average age: 38
                      200
                                                                                                                     number of employees
                                                            2004                                 2024                with healthy restrictions
                      150
                                                                                                                     increases with older age
                      100


                       50


                        0                                                                                                          most restrictions:
                            15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65

                                                     age of employees

                                                                                               77%
                             Employee age 53 to 61:                                                                 64%
                                    45-60% restrictions                                                                                   49%
                                                                                                                                                           45%
                             Employee age 30 to 40:
                                    20-35% restrictions                                   posture (to carry)   posture (to bend)    posture (to stand)   working time
human resource management – rethink-process/ influences

                    since 1993: Instruments of human resource management

•Time-bond                              Early possibility to leave work

•Flexibility ledger with demografical   Working life account of positive
 saving accounts                        overtime-balances in a year
                                        (unit-linked)
•„Altersstafette“                       Agreement to lower working time of
                                        older employees
•occupational health promotion          Lots of programes to keep work ability

•Time for qualification (Auto5000)      Longlife Learning / costs: 50% VW +
                                        50% employees
                                        To introduce flexible employment
•„Personaleinsatzbetrieb“               guarantee, for example work2work

                Personal responsibility +
                Provision of agreed and individualed services
work2work – procedures / assignment

                          Analysis with company physician
                          healthy restrictions
   original production                                      trans-sectoral production



  human resource, staff association, representative body for disabled employees,
                         line manager, company physician
                                                                     individual
                            contract of integration                  work-book

                                                                       personnel data
profile of          human
employee:            resource:                                    data of working place

-work ability           Knowledge                                      special skills
-interests                 about
-qualification         possibilities                                  healthy restrictions
-skills            of assignment
                                                                        fitnessprogram
work2work – work-out programme
cw 02 - 03 2006

    time             monday          tuesday             wednesday              thursday             friday
 7:30 - 8:30am     Pezziball (B)      Volleyball          Bodyfit (A)           Volleyball          Fantasy (R)
                                   Perineal
 8:30 - 9:30am      Qi Gong (R)                        Fitnesstraining (C)     Qi Gong (R)         Theraband (B)
                                   gymnastics (A)

 9:30 - 10:30am    Pezziball (B) Fitnesstraining (C)     Qi Gong (R)            Volleyball          Bodyfit (A)
                                                                               Perineal
10:30 - 11:30am     Volleyball        Fantasy (R)        Theraband (B)                              Qi Gong (R)
                                                                               gymnastics (A)
11:30 - 12:30am     Bodyfit (A)    Fitnesstraining (C)     Fantasy (R)         Volleyball          Pezziball (B)
                                                         Perineal
12:30 - 1:30pm    Theraband (B)       Qi Gong (R)                            Fitnesstraining (C)    Fantasy (R)
                                                         gymnastics (A)

 1:30 - 2:30pm     Volleyball        Pezziball (B)        Volleyball            Fantasy (R)         Bodyfit (A)


                                                          aerobic (A)
                                                          back exercises (B)
                                                          cardiovascular gymnastics (C)
                                                          relaxation (R)
                                                          theory (TH)
Alcuni elementi della strategia di altre
  aziende

Da una presentazione di
Peter Siderman,
Managing Director, Adecco Institute

Seminario Adecco, Torino, novembre 2007
                   DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE –
                       COMPANY EFFECT
                       Audi cars

Silverline Program

The average Audi production worker is today aged 40 and in 5 years more than
1-in-3 workers will be aged 50+ years (at least 7,000 workers in Germany)

Audi recently launched its Silverline Program, to find out how best to keep older
workers productive and included

Audi is increasing production of the new R8 sports car, and is focusing on older
workers for this – because experience is better than physical fitness here

The R8 production requires the same manual assembly process to be repeated
every 46 minutes, versus every 1.5 minutes for typical Audi models

Source: Press reports, May 2007
DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE – CASE STUDIES

            CAREER
          MANAGEMENT
ASDA (Wal-Mart) – UK
One of the UK’s largest retailers, it values attracting mature workers.
20% of ASDA’s total 20,000 employees are over 50.
ASDA offers flexible arrangements and benefits targeted at older workers:
• “Benidorm leave” (three months unpaid leave from January to March)
• “Grandparent leave” (a week unpaid after the birth of a grandchild).
Flexible arrangements for older workers provide benefits, e.g. in high business
periods, and performance gains (stores with a higher proportion of older
workers have ~30% the average ASDA absenteeism rates)




Source: CEO Forum Group
 DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE – CASE STUDIES

LIFELONG LEARNING
VOEST ALPINE – Austria / Germany

Voestalpine offers a Formula 33 training aimed at all age groups. 33 = 3 age
groups (young, middle, old) and 3 types of training:

- On the job (quality control, project leader, health and safety training)
- Near the job (e-learning, job rotation, public speaking, train-the-trainer)
- Off the job (trade fairs, field trips, seminars)

Workers can invest 2% of their annual work time (~4 days) in personal or
professional training

Participation is acknowledged in people‘s annual performance review

Since 2000, Voestalpine has hired nearly 3,000 staff and 17% are over 40



Source: Voestalpine HR manager presentation, April 27, 2007
DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE – CASE STUDIES

  AGE DIVERSITY MANAGEMENT

Storebrand - Norway

One of Norway’s biggest banking and insurance groups, Storebrand supports
diversity and equality of status for older workers.

Storebrand policy initiatives include:

• Ignoring age as a factor in both recruitment and down-sizing
• Intranet pages specifically with information on “senior policy”
• Workers aged 60+ can take 3 extra days off.
• Employees aged 64+ may have shorter working days than others.
• Workers aged 60+ have one hour physical training during the week.
• Older workers have a special fund for studies
• A “senior committee” covers flexible job arrangements and retirement planning




Source: “Healthy Work in an Ageing Europe”
Fare dell’invecchiamento un business
       La realtà di una popolazione che invecchia in
  Italia e in tutto il mondo può anche essere vista
  pensando alla popolazione anziana e vecchia
  come un enorme e crescente mercato che ha
  bisogni specifici sia di beni, sia di servizi.
       Investire, da parte delle aziende, nella
  produzione di tali beni e servizi può giovare alla
  economia italiana in termini generali e al
  benessere degli anziani e dei vecchi in termini
  specifici.

								
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