e-Commerce, e-Business, e-Education: Change is the Only Constant - PowerPoint

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					Plenary Panel Introduction

Will universities become
extinct in the networked
      ICDE 21st World Conference
          Hong Kong, 2004
       The Networked World:
Internet Access Population (millions)
                USA           182.1
                Japan          56.1
                China          45.8
                Germany        44.1
                UK             34.3
                South Korea    25.6
                Canada         16.8
                Australia      12.8
                Netherlands    10.4
                Sweden          6.7

   Total global population estimated at 655 million
                                 Source: A C Nielsen, Sept 2003
 Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted
that every 50 years or so, technological
        revolutions would cause

"gales of creative destruction”

in which old industries would be swept
   away and replaced by new ones.
     Driver for Change
     'The death of distance as a
      determinant of the cost of
communications will probably be the
  single most important economic
force shaping society in the first half
         of the 21st century'.
                       Cairncross (1997)
The Knowledge Explosion
 Over 90% of the relevant literature in many
  technical fields, such as biotechnology,
 astronomy, computers and software, and
environmental sciences, has been produced
                 since 1985.
 Traditional programmatic approaches to
 education simply cannot keep up………...
                              J B Quinn (2001)
Explosion in Demand
 A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold
  (US$4.5 trillion) jump in global education
  expenditure during the next 13 years.

 The World Bank expects the number of
  higher education students will more than
  double from 70 million to 160 million by

(Source: Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal
  http://finance.news.com.au, 22 April 2000).
 Leadership Challenge: From
Elite to Mass Higher Education

  In 1946: 8 Australian universities
   teaching about 26,000 students.

  In 2003: 38 Australian universities
   teaching about 890,000 students.
   Future Projections
 By 2005, e-learning will be the single most
  used application on the web.

 Corporate investment in e-learning will
  grow from US$2.1 billion in 2001 to
  US$33.4 billion in 2005.

(Source: Harris, Logan & Lundy, Gartner Research,
  The Knowledge-based
 There are increasing signs that our current
paradigms for higher education, the nature of
 our academic programs, the organization of
  our colleges and universities, and the way
 that we finance, conduct and distribute the
services of higher education may not be able
     to adapt to the demands of our time.
                          J J Duderstadt (2001)
    The e-Revolution

“Any new technology environment
 eventually creates a totally new
      human environment”

                Marshall McLuhan
    The fact that the present traditional
    approaches based on conventional
classroom-based teaching and learning will
 not be capable of meeting the escalating
    demand for higher education in the
knowledge society has apparently failed to
  register in the minds of many executive
 Leadership Challenge

   Stepping onto many a university
 campus in 2004 - as the information
economy gains momentum – a visitor
 from 1950 would feel quite at home.
  Leadership Challenge

“Technology is the key variable making
     possible, and imperative, the
   reinvention of the corporation”.

               Stace & Dunphy (2001)
Institutional Capacity for
While there is a great deal of business literature
  on companies that have “restructured” and re-
    engineered” to respond to new competitive
 threats and rapidly changing market conditions,
   universities are generally regarded as being
 stubbornly resistant to change as a result of the
typically conservative and reactionary pressures
  both internal and external to the organization.
The problems faced by mass higher education
today come from a system which has become
mass in its size but remains elite in its values.

The recent external changes of numbers,
structures, finance, and governance have not
been matched by appropriate internal changes
of values, purpose and activities.

                              Source: Wagner (1995) p.21
Organizational Inertia
Trying to change a university
   is like trying to move a
         graveyard ---
   it is extremely difficult
  and you don’t get much
       internal support.
Fast, Flexible and Fluid
The transition from the Industrial to the
 Information Age was encapsulated by
Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued
  that to survive organisations would
   need to change from rigid, formula
driven entities to organisations that are
       “fast, flexible and fluid”.
Random Acts of Innovation

The potential benefits of e-learning will
not be achieved in the present vertical
 academic silos, which are typified by
  the “random acts of innovation” of
 individual academics rather than by
     systemic strategic planning.
Institutional Sustainability

  Fast, flexible and fluid organizations
   that can provide: customized, high
    quality, value added services that
   satisfy customer needs with speed
 and accuracy at the appropriate price
 point , are the only institutions that will
 survive and thrive in the 21st century.
Is this “fantasyland” for universities typified
by the hierarchical, bureaucratic academic
structure in which the provision of effective
     services to students is significantly
     inhibited by personal agendas and
 dependence on management via multiple
    layers of committees that move with
           glacier-like momentum?
 Organizational Inertia

   “The greatest danger in times of
turbulence, is not the turbulence……..

  it is to act with yesterday’s logic.”

                   Peter Drucker (1991)
In 1803 the British deployed a military
attachment to stand on the Cliffs of
Dover to watch for Napoleon.

    • It was not until 1927 that the
      detachment was disbanded.

    • Napoleon Bonaparte died in 1821.

                      Source: Stace & Dunphy (2001)
Will universities become
extinct in the networked
 Within the next decade, the view
 that universities, like dinosaurs,
  may be unable to adapt to the
     increasing pressures of
 technological development and
  globalization is likely to gather
         empirical support.

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