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PowerPoint Presentation - ELECTORAL CHANGE by 3pGi6p

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									   CANADA NEEDS AN ELECTORAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL BUILD COMMUNITY
           IN CANADA
   The situation leading to Canada’s recent serious
    Parliamentary Crisis was caused by our archaic system of
    electing our Members of Parliament.

   Canada’s next and future elections should be meaningful
    elections in which voters can vote for whom and what
    they believe in, with confidence that their vote will affect
    the formation of Parliament. In the 2006 and 2008
    elections, less than 50% of electors who voted could
    point to an MP that their vote helped to elect. Using the
    newly proposed system, over 90% of electors would be
    able to point to an MP that their vote helped to elect.
                                                               1
    CANADA’S ELECTORAL SYSTEM:
        PRESENT               AND A FUTURE                 OPTION

          WHY ELECTORAL CHANGE?
   “When it (Canada’s present system) was created, there
   were only two major political parties and now there are
   five. It came into effect before we had electricity, before
   women were persons under the law and before first
   nations had the right to vote…We have been studying
   the question of reforming our electoral system for over
   25 years through various government task forces and
   royal commissions.“
                            Ms. Catherine Bell, Vancouver Island North, NDP
                            February 19,2007
For more see: bloggingdippers.org/hansard-electoral-reform.php
                                                                              2
INEFFECTIVE VOTES: If 50.2% of those who cast
ballots had decided not to vote, it would not have
affected the outcome of Canada’s 2006 election.


INEFFECTIVE VOTES: If 52.1% of those who cast
ballots had decided not to vote, it would not have
affected the outcome of Canada’s 2008 election.


Isn’t it more important for Canada to build an
effective electoral system than to have another
ineffective election where half the voters have
no effect on the election outcome?
                                                     3
  WHY NOT ELECTORAL CHANGE?


Can Canada have a more effective electoral system before
the next election?



      Impossible?               Maybe, but why?




                                                           4
           THIS PROPOSED SYSTEM
This proposed system would have ridings that are twice as large, but
there would be only half as many.


Approximately half the seats would be riding seats and half would be
proportional seats that would represent many areas throughout Canada.


These proportional seats would:
        1. greatly increase the number of effective voters who can point to an
                  MP that their vote helped to elect.
        2. keep relatively local representation, highly valued by many



If not the simplest, one of the simplest, effective electoral system for
Canada to implement following an educational program and referendum.

                                                                                 5
             ELECTORAL CHANGE
By:
   David Brekke, B.Ed., M.Ed.
         Former Federal Returning Officer and Member of Elections
           Canada’s Returning Officers Advisory Committee (ROAC)*
         Very concerned Canadian Citizen
           Trying to continue to be apolitical


   And Friends and Associates
         With similar concerns who contributed their ideas and skills

         *       The purpose of Elections Canada forming that advisory committee was for R.O.
  feedback on proposals to increase voter turnout. Rightfully, I think, improving the electoral
  system was not part of Elections Canada¹s mandate from Parliament. Electoral system change is
  a political issue and Elections Canada is to be apolitical. However, it was discussed informally.


                                                                                                 6
  CANADA’S ELECTORAL SYSTEM ISN’T
             WORKING
In 1984, the Progressive Conservatives win 50% of the votes but gain nearly
75% of the seats, close to an all-time record for the largest percentage of
unearned seats in any federal election.

In 1984, when competing for the Liberal leadership, Jean Chretien tells
reporters in Brandon, Manitoba, he would introduce proportional representation
“right after the next election’ if he became prime minister.

In 1993, more than two million votes for Kim Campbell’s Progressive
Conservatives translates into two seats – or one seat for every 1,000,000 votes.
Meanwhile, the voting system gives the Liberal Party one seat for every 32,000
votes.

In 1993, Jean Chretien wins the election and begins his ten-year reign as prime
minister. In three elections, he never wins more than 42% of the popular vote,
but still forms “majority” governments thanks to the current voting system. He
never gets around to introducing proportional representation.
                  FAIR VOTE CANADA Low Points in Canadian Elections        7
    A FALSE MAJORITY GOVERNMENT IS A TOO
    REASONABLE GOAL IN CANADA’S PRESENT
              ELECTORAL SYSTEM

• False majority governments have often occurred with less than
40% of the votes. A false majority gives 100% power to one
political party. Would you like assurance that almost all voters
empower Canada, rather than a single group of less than half of
the voters?


• Would you like to be able to vote with your heart and mind and
feel confident that you will be able to point to an elected MP that
your vote had helped to elect?


•If you would, please consider the following proposed system:
                                                                8
Outcome Preview
This proposed electoral system was applied to the
2006 and 2008 election numbers for 132 ridings.
Results:
For 132 ridings in twenty two areas across Canada, the voter effectiveness went from
barely 50% using Canada’s present system to greater than 90% using the
proposed system.

         Green party candidates would have been elected

         The NDP would have elected more MPs in most, but not all, of Canada

         The Liberal, NDP and Green candidates would be elected MPs in Alberta

         The Conservatives would have elected MPs in large cities

         The Bloc would have lost seats but gained broader representation


 ALL PARTIES WOULD HAVE GAINED SEATS WHERE THEY WERE UNDER REPRESENTED
             AND LOST SEATS WHERE THEY WERE OVER REPRESENTED.


        THIS SYSTEM OFFERS MUCH GREATER REASON FOR CITIZENS TO BOTH
              APPRECIATE AND BECOME MORE INVOLVED IN ELECTIONS.                    9
        This presentation will:
1. Review how Canada’s present electoral system
works

2. Present a new proposed system that would
increase the effectiveness of voting throughout
Canada with all MPs elected

3. Promote electoral change by Canadians NOW,
to make Canada’s elections more representative.

NOTE: At this time, the data in this discussion is based primarily on Canada’s 2006
election results.   Canada’s 2008 election results are gradually being included and
reorganized.
                                                                                  10
  LET’S START WITH THE BASICS
              1. Why do we vote?
          2. What is an effective vote?

1. WHY VOTE? To elect the person and/or party we want
  to represent us in parliament


2. EFFECTIVE VOTE? When we can point to someone
  elected to parliament that our vote has helped to elect.




                                                             11
CANADA’S PRESENT ELECTORAL SYSTEM
Under Canada’s present electoral system:

  • first you vote “x” for your choice of one candidate.


  • the votes are counted and the candidate with the most
  votes wins the seat in each riding. This system is called
  First Past The Post (FPTP)


  • seems fair, but the winning candidate could be the least
  wanted by more than 50% of the voters.



                                                           12
Under Canada’s present system:


  • the party with the most seats is the winner and forms the
    government.



  • if the government has more than half the seats, it is a
    majority government with 100% power.



  • that majority government often has had a majority of
    seats with only 40% of the votes (false majority, but still
    has that 100% power).

                                                              13
What are some aspects people like
   in Canada’s present system?

 Canada’s present system:
 •   Has simplicity

 •   Aims at both “being fair” and “being seen to be fair”

 •   Offers opportunities for development of a close
     relationship between MPs and their constituents
     through local representation


                                                             14
                     HOWEVER

Under Canada’s present system:


• Fewer and fewer Canadians are voting in Canada’s
elections.


• Have you ever said to yourself or heard someone say,
“I didn’t vote because my vote wouldn’t count anyway.
Why bother to vote?”


                                                         15
         THE PROPOSED SYSTEM
For this discussion, the proposed system will be
called the

 Paired-Riding Preferential/Proportional system
                    (PRPP)
Every time two ridings are paired to form one riding, they make available
a proportional seat for their area. Areas would contain between 4 and10
ridings (two and five paired-ridings). Variations would need to occur in
three provinces that have an odd number of ridings.

With this Paired-Riding Preferential/Proportional system, only one
additional seat is needed to increase the effectiveness of voters
everywhere in Canada. That additional seat for the northern territories
will be dealt with later.
                                                                          16
           COMPARISON OF
         HOW SEATS ARE WON
                                  Paired-Riding
Canada’s Present FPTP       Preferential/Proportional
 ELECTORAL SYSTEM             ELECTORAL SYSTEM

Number of MPs      308      Number of MPs        309

Elected by First Past The   Elected by Preferential
  Post in Ridings.           Vote in Paired-Ridings
  Number of Seats: 308       (one candidate/party) 157

                            Elected to proportional seats
                             in their Paired-Riding
                             Proportional Seat Areas.
                             Number of Seats: 152       17
             COMPARISON
          COUNTING THE VOTES
    Canada’s present           Paired-Riding Preferential/
     (FPTP) system             Proportional (PRPP) system


First-Past-The-Post voting   Cumulative majority preferential
   is used.                     voting is used. Three choices
                                (explained later):
  One choice “x”             First “1”, Second “2”, Third “3”


The candidate with the       The candidate with the largest
  most votes wins the          amount of preferential votes
  riding seat.                 over 50% wins the paired-
                               riding seat.
                                                         18
   GOALS OF THE PAIRED-RIDING
PREFERENTIAL/PROPORTIONAL SYSTEM

• To increase the impact of many more voters

And thereby


• To come as close as possible to the popular vote in
each Area

And result in


• Canada becoming a much more representative
democracy
                                                    19
THE BASIS OF THE (PRPP) PAIRED-RIDING
 PREFERENTIAL/PROPORTIONAL SYSTEM


• CUMULATIVE MAJORITY PREFERENTIAL VOTING
determines the winners of paired-riding seats


And


• THE BEST MATCH BETWEEN SEATS AND VOTES
determines the winners of Proportional Seat Area seats


                                                         20
How Does the PRPP System Work?

VOTING
One vote is used to elect the two types of seats:

    As stated, cumulative majority preferential voting is
    used to elect the paired-riding seat MPs


    The TOTAL First-choice votes of each party in each
    electoral area are used to elect the proportional seat
    MPs for the area.


                                                             21
               PREFERENTIAL VOTING
                          Sample Ballot
Choose up to three candidates in the order of your choice using:
        “1” for first choice, “2” for second and “3” for third.

        Candidate Party A …………………………………………                2_
        Candidate Party B …………………………………………                1_
        Candidate Party C …………………………………………                __
        Candidate Party D …………………………………………                __
        Candidate Independent .....……………………………            3_

               +++++++++++++++++++++++




                                                                   22
     CUMULATIVE MAJORITY PREFERENTIAL
              VOTE COUNTING
Using cumulative majority preferential voting, the votes
are counted as follows:


     1. Your Paired-Riding’s First-choice votes are counted and
     if a candidate has 50%+ votes, that candidate is elected
     to your paired-riding seat.



     2. If 50% is not reached, all second-choice votes are
     counted and added to each candidate’s first-choice votes.
                                                           23
3. If 50% is not reached by any candidate, Third-
choices are handled in the same way.


4. If 50% is still not reached, the candidate with
preferential votes from the most voters wins the
riding seat.


NOTE: If most voters use the full power of their
vote, 50% would almost always be reached after
Second-choice votes are counted.


(To observe the effects of cumulative majority preferential vote
counting in the PRPP system, see the graph following.)


                                                                   24
                       Hypothetical Election Results
                          for Paired-Riding 007
  2500



  2000



  1500


                                                                                             Second
  1000
                                                                                             First

   500



     0
            Votes         Votes          Votes         Votes          Votes         2000
           Candidate     Candidate     Candidate      Candidate     Candidate      VOTERS
            Party A       Party B       Party C        Party D     Independent      Total


Although the Party C candidate had the most First-choice votes (35%), he/she did not win
the seat. It was necessary to count all Second-choice votes and add them to the First-choice
votes for a candidate to win the paired-riding seat with support of 50%+ voters.

The party B candidate won the seat with the First-choice or Second-choice support of 60% of the voters.

                                                                                                      25
   PAIRED-RIDING PROPORTIONAL
              SEATS

In the PRPP system, proportional seats are
needed to make it possible for voters to make an
effective vote whether or not they voted for the
winner of their riding seat.


These seats make it possible for candidates from
under represented parties to win proportional
seats to represent their voters in Parliament.

                                                   26
  WHERE PROPORTIONAL SEATS COME
             FROM

As previously stated:

       When two ridings are paired, they become one paired-
riding having only one seat (one candidate for each party).


      Every time two ridings are paired to form one riding,
they make available a proportional seat for their area.

                                                          27
                 LOCAL REPRESENTATION

In the PRPP system, to keep the local representation that is
highly valued by most Canadians, between two and five paired-
ridings (between four and ten present ridings) are organized
into Paired-Riding Proportional Seat Areas.



By totaling First-choice votes for each party in all the paired-
ridings in a Paired-Riding Proportional-Seat Area, the popular
vote can be established for the Area.


The popular vote of an area is used to help determine the
winner of each proportional seat.
                                                               28
RESULTS OF PAIRED-RIDING PROPORTIONAL SEATS

      Under the PRPP system, Canada would have a total of
152 proportional seats, located in proportional seat areas
throughout Canada, to be won by under represented parties.


       Only under represented parties can win the paired-
riding proportional seats.


       These paired-riding proportional seats bring a much
closer match between seats won and parties’ total First-choice
votes in each paired-riding proportional seat area.

                                                            29
               EXAMPLE OF A
  PAIRED-RIDING PROPORTIONAL SEAT AREA:


The province of Prince Edward Island under Canada’s
present system has four riding seats.



With this proposed PRPP system, there would be two
paired-riding seats and two paired-riding proportional
seats instead of four riding seats.


                                                         30
REPRESENTATION IN THE PRPP SYSTEM
In the PRPP system, these two paired-riding seats and two
paired-riding proportional seats would make up P.E.I.’s
representation in Parliament.


The paired-riding MPs would each represent their riding.


The paired-riding proportional MPs would each represent all
of P.E.I., their paired-riding proportional seat area.




                                                            31
One of the goals is to achieve the best match
between seats and votes (popular vote) in each
paired-riding proportional seat area, so:



Each Paired-Riding proportional seat would be
won by the party that would result in that best
match.



Let’s take a closer look at P.E.I. using the results
of Canada’s 2006 and 2008 elections.
                                                   32
       COMPARISON OF RESULTS
Results from PEI’s 2006 and 2008 Elections were used.




 A BIG IMPROVEMENT IN REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY FOR CANADA
                                                            33
       COMPARISON OF RESULTS
Results from PEI’s 2006 and 2008 Elections were used.




 A BIG IMPROVEMENT IN REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY FOR CANADA
                                                            34
WHICH CANDIDATE WINS THE PROPORTIONAL SEAT?

       The candidate from that winning party (who did not win
his/her riding seat), with the highest percentage of First-choice
votes in his/her riding, wins that proportional seat for the Area.


                     BENEFITS OF PRPP
        The PRPP system adds much more effectiveness to the
efforts of more party candidates and their supporters, as well as
their voters, than Canada’s present First-Past-The-Post (FPTP)
system.

And
      It is easy for voters to see the MP whom their vote
helped to elect if their own candidate did not win the seat.
                                                               35
TYPES of PROPORTIONAL SEAT AREAS

There are two types of proportional seat areas requiring
no additional seats.

  1. Paired-riding proportional seat areas, which have an even
  number of ridings, occur in all provinces.

  2. However, three provinces, which presently have an odd
  number of ridings, will each have one Area with only three
  ridings.
        Those provinces’ proportional seat area with three ridings, will need
        to be re-formed into two ridings.

       This would result in one proportional seat for each of these Areas.




                                                                              36
    ONE ADDITIONAL PROPORTIONAL SEAT

•   One additional proportional seat is required for Canada’s
    northern territories because they have only one riding in
    each jurisdiction.

•   In the Paired-Riding Preferential/ Proportional (PRPP)
    electoral system, that one additional seat is necessary to
    make voting more effective for all Canadians.

•   Without that seat, the only voters in Canada’s northern
    territories whose First-choice vote would count, would be
    those whose first-choice vote was for the winner of their
    riding seat.

                                                                 37
JUSTIFICATION FOR THE ADDITIONAL
              SEAT

Although the northern territories physically represent a
very large part of Canada, at this time they do not have
large enough populations to justify their present seats.



However, when the importance of Canada’s north is
considered for the future, the northern territories could
soon have populations to justify both their riding seats
plus the additional proportional seat.


                                                            38
       What if a political party wins a
    proportional seat in the Paired-riding
     Proportional Seat Area and all their
     candidates won their riding seats?
HOW DO YOU THINK THIS WOULD BE?

A by-election of the party nominees who placed second in their races for the
candidacy of their ridings. These same party nominees from each of the
ridings could become candidates for the proportional seat their party won.


Though not often, this would have happened with the 2006 election results.
However, using a more effective electoral system including preferential voting,
voting results could be very different and this would not be required.
EFFECTS of PRPP on 22 PAIRED-RIDING
    PROPORTIONAL SEAT AREAS

The Areas vary in size from two paired-ridings in P.E.I. and
smaller cities to five paired-ridings in larger cities.

    [Except for P.E.I., densely populated areas (cities)]


These small geographic areas were used because they are
easier to work with. As you will see, in these larger city
areas one party was generally over represented.

   For details, see LINKS at <www.electoralchange.ca>

                                                               40
         COMPARISON OF RESULTS
Results from Canada’s 2006 and 2008 Elections were used.




   A BIG IMPROVEMENT IN REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY FOR CANADA
                                                              41
         COMPARISON OF RESULTS
Results from Canada’s 2006 and 2008 Elections were used.




   A BIG IMPROVEMENT IN REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY FOR CANADA
                                                              42
                           MORE RESULTS
               For those 132 seats (out of 309) in the 22 paired-riding
     proportional seat areas, the voter effectiveness went from less
    than 50% using Canada’s present system to more than 90%
                    using the proposed PRPP system.
   Green party candidates would have been elected
   The NDP would have elected more MPs in most, but not all, of Canada
   The Liberals, NDP and Greens would have elected MPs in Alberta
   The Conservatives would have elected MPs in large cities
   The Bloc would have lost seats but gained broader representation

ALL PARTIES WOULD HAVE WON SEATS IN AREAS WHERE THEY WERE UNDER
   REPRESENTED AND LOST SEATS WHERE THEY WERE OVER REPRESENTED.

NOTE: No consideration could be given here to the effects of Second and Third-choice votes
   as voting was by “x” only.




                                                                                      43
   EFFECTIVENESS OF YOUR VOTE
If this PRPP system had been used in Canada’s 2006 and 2008
elections, your First-choice vote would have had a greatly
increased chance to be effective.

If you voted 1, 2, 3, your vote could have helped two
candidates to win.
 • Your second-choice or third-choice candidate could win your
    riding seat.
 • Your first-choice candidate or another same party candidate
    from your area could win a proportional seat


You could have voted with your heart and mind for the
candidate(s) of your choice, and seen the effect of your
vote.
                                                                 44
        THE PAIRED-RIDING
PREFERENTIAL/PROPORTIONAL SYSTEM
              would:

 • greatly increase the effectiveness and satisfaction of
 voters, candidates and their supporters, giving much
 greater reason for citizens to want to be involved

 • have a close match between the Popular Vote and
 seats won in each proportional seat area

 • if not always, almost always have both Government
 and Opposition MP’s elected in all these areas of
 Canada
                                                       45
                  EFFECTS ON GOVERNANCE

•     The Paired-Riding Preferential/Proportional (PRPP) system would
    result in a far more representative democracy for Canada, elected
    for good governance of a more inclusive society.

•     Long-range planning would be more meaningful as ownership of
    legislation would be by MPs of more than just one political party.

•    Minority governments could be expected to run full term. If
    change in legislation is needed, change would occur. Sometimes
    under majority governments, change has been needed but has not
    occurred until the next election.

•     There would be very little reason for a prime minister or an
    opposition party to call for an election with the hope of winning a
    majority, because a false majority government would be very difficult
    to attain.

                                                                         46
              IMPROVEMENTS


     At this time, do you see ways to make this
proposed system simpler or more effective?


      Would you like to share any thoughts on
concerns that you think this Paired-Riding
Preferential/Proportional (PRPP) electoral system
could cause?



                                                    47
  Do you think improving Canada’s
electoral system this way would be an
       investment for Canada?
  1. More effective long-range planning? Would
  MPs of more than one party having ownership of
  legislation, rather than majority party ownership, lead
  to more effective long-range planning?
  2. More mutual respect would need to be shown
  because cooperation would be needed for legislation
  to become law.
  3. Legislation would be broader in perspective.
  4. Government would have more reason to be
  transparent and accountable.

                                                        48
     CHANGE: When and How?
    When should Canada start to make its electoral
system more effective?


    The need is most noticeable directly following
election results, but Canada’s recent debacle raised
Canadians’ awareness of how we are governed. Will
Canadians act on this opportunity for change?

     After more than 25 years of working on it, Canada’s
parliament hasn’t found a good time to improve the
effectiveness of the voter’s vote. Without the personal
encouragement by Citizens to their MP’s, how will it
happen?

                                                       49
                 WHAT ABOUT NOW???
Some ways you might consider to help that needed
change occur:

1. Personally express your concerns to your member of
parliament or legislature.
  Ask him/her what he/she is going to do about improving Canada’s electoral
system (email, fax, telephone, in person?). Does your MP and MLA know
you are interested in improving Canada’s (your province’s or territory’s)
electoral system?

2. Share your thoughts with friends and
associates. You might be surprised at how many people have the
same or similar concerns that you have. However, it is expected that some
people, whom you highly respect, will not be ready to even consider change.


                                                                          50
Wishing you and Canada well!

             “We don’t have to engage in grand,
It has been said:
heroic actions to participate in the process of
change. Small acts when multiplied by millions
of people, can transform the world.”
(origin uncertain)



Hopefully, through our efforts, more Canadians
 will have a greater reason to vote and want to
             vote in future elections.

                                              51
  Other Questions, Concerns
     and/or Suggestions?
You can provide comments and see other
           peoples comments at
 http://electoralchangeca.wordpress.com/

For more, including how this change could
     happen, visit LINKS at the website
        <www.electoralchange.ca>



                                            52

								
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