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Last updated: 8/31/2006
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
Mali: Alatona Irrigation Project
Investment memo, final
8/31/2006
$234.6 million
The Alatona Irrigation Project is focused on increasing production and productivity, increasing farmer incomes,
improving land tenure security, modernizing irrigated production systems and mitigating the uncertainty from
subsistence rain-fed agriculture. It seeks to develop newly irrigated lands, increase the “drought-proof” cropland
and the country’s total stock of fully or partially irrigated land. The Alatona Irrigation Project will introduce
innovative agricultural, land tenure, and water management practices, as well as policy and organizational
reforms aimed at realizing the ON’s potential to serve as an engine of rural growth for Mali.
Increased value-added from agricultural production
Decreased vehicle operating costs (VOCs)
Time savings for road users
Decreased maintenance cost
Decreased paddy production loss from water rationing
None
15.3% over 25 years
Project Description
One should read this sheet first, as it offers a summary of the activity, a list of components, and states the
economic rationale for the project.
ERR & Sensitivity Analysis
This worksheet highlights key assumptions and summarizes how the ERR may change due to varying costs and
Summary ERRs
Estimates the annual costs and benefits of the project and computes the resulting ERR over a 25-year time
Farm Model Assumptions
Estimates the assumptions about cropping patterns, yields and revenues for individual farms.
Project_Costs
Shows detailed cost estimates for various components of the project at the time of the investment decision.
Road Model
Calculates the annual costs and benefits, resulting from vehicle operating cost savings, time savings, decreased
maintenance costs, of the road activity.
Econ_Analysis_MSI
Projects the annual costs and benefits of main irrigation system improvements and computes 25-year ERRs for
Alatona Beneficiaries
Analyzes the project's impact on beneficiaries of the project.
Land_Financing
Estimates the annual costs and benefits of the land allocation activity.
Alatona Prod
Projects agricultural production for the Alatona region over the first seven years of the project.
Finan-Econ Prices
A table showing irrigation-related financial and economic prices and costs for farmers in the project zone.
SocialInfraRtnCalc
Models the project's returns on social infrastructure.
Last updated: 8/31/2006
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
Project Description
Summary
Components
The Project Activities that are funded under this Project are:
Economic Rationale
Last updated: 8/31/2006
Last updated: 8/31/2006
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
Project Description
Summary
The Alatona Irrigation Project is focused on increasing production and productivity, increasing farmer incomes,
improving land tenure security, modernizing irrigated production systems and mitigating the uncertainty from
subsistence rain-fed agriculture. It seeks to develop newly irrigated lands, increase the “drought-proof” cropland
and the country’s total stock of fully or partially irrigated land. The Alatona Irrigation Project will introduce
innovative agricultural, land tenure, and water management practices, as well as policy and organizational
reforms aimed at realizing the potential of the Office du Niger to serve as an engine of rural growth for Mali.
Components
The Project Activities that are funded under this Project are:
1. Niono – Goma Coura Road . This Project Activity will upgrade an 81 km north-south road within the
national highway
network from its current earth/gravel condition to a paved standard. The investment will also include an
additional access
2. Irrigation Planning and Infrastructure . This Project Activity will involve main conveyance system expansion,
Alatona
irrigation system development, and support to the ON agency on water management.
3. Land Allocation . The Alatona Irrigation Project will improve rural land tenure security in Mali by allocating
newly developed,
irrigated land to family farmers, women market gardeners, and farming companies in private ownership.
These land
recipients will purchase the land by making annual payments over a 15-20 year period. This Project
Activity consists of
4. Resettlement, Social Infrastructure, and Social Services . This Project Activity will compensate families
residing in the
perimeter or with rights to land therein consistent with World Bank Operational Policy 4.12 on Involuntary
Resettlement
by offering land in the irrigation perimeter or, if the land option is not chosen, other compensation
alternatives. This
Project Activity will provide social Activity will support a these project-affected persons and related
5. Agricultural Services . This Projectinfrastructure, to serverange of agricultural, institutionalplus incoming
services to
strengthen capacity and improve agricultural practice through applied agricultural research, extension and
farmer training, Services . This Project Activity will encourage agricultural lending by reducing the risks of
6. Financial
extending credit in
this newly developed zone, improving transparency within the existing financial system, and strengthening
the
capabilities of local financial institutions through a credit risk sharing program, microfinance credit bureau
Economic Rationale
The Alatona Project is estimated to generate an economic return of 15.3% based on a quantification of
incremental agricultural production, avoided reductions in rice yields in the ON resulting from the increase in
conveyance capacity of the ON’s main canal system, and lower vehicle operating costs along the Niono-Goma
Coura Road. The economic analysis aimed to quantify the direct impact of the MCC investment on value added
from agricultural production. The economic analysis has not evaluated the indirect impacts of the MCC
investment on the whole supply chain (upstream and downstream suppliers). Estimates conducted by MCC
consultants indicate that this “supply chain multiplier” could be as high as 30% of direct impacts, but no direct
evidence of this was gathered. The Alatona Project is also expected to generate non-quantified social, health, and
education improvements through investment in social infrastructure in the Alatona zone and greater access to
Last updated: 8/31/2006
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
ERR and sensitivity analysis
Change the "User Input" cells in the table below to see the effect on the compact's Economic Rate of Return (ERR) and
MCC estimates, click the "Reset Parameters" button at right. Be sure to reset all summary parameters to their original v
parameters.
Parameter type
Summary
Summary
Specific
Specific
Specific
Specific
Specific
0
Alatona Irrigation
nd sensitivity analysis
e "User Input" cells in the table below to see the effect on the compact's Economic Rate of Return (ERR) and net benefits (see chart below).
mates, click the "Reset Parameters" button at right. Be sure to reset all summary parameters to their original values ("MCC Estimate" values
s.
Paramete
Description of key parameters
User Input
Actual costs as a percentage of estimated costs 100%
Actual benefits as a percentage of estimated benefits 100%
Actual crop yields as a percentage of expected crop yields 100%
Project year in which farmers are connected to the system 3
Actual production costs for farmers as a percentage of estimated production costs 100%
Actual crop prices as a percentage of crop prices 100%
Exchange rate (CFA franc/US$) 520
Economic rate of return (ERR): 15.3%
MCC Estimated ERR (as of 8/31/2006): 15.3%
Undiscounted annual net benefits of Alatona Irrigation Project
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
US$
20,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000
-80,000
Year
Distribution of ERR Given Uncertainty in Key Parameters
(as of 8/31/2006)
500
450
400
350
Frequency
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
13.3% 14.3% 15.3% 16.3%
Although the above distributional figure was not part of the Investment Memorandum (IM) ERR calculati
it reflects the best information available on parameters as of the IM (8/31/2006)
2
3
4
Last updated: 8/31/2006 5
and net benefits (see chart below). To reset all values to the default
al values ("MCC Estimate" values) before changing specific
Parameter values
All summary
Values used in
MCC Estimate Plausible range parameters set to initial
ERR computation
values?
100% 80 - 120% 100% Y
100% 80 - 120% 100% Y
100% 80 - 120% 100% More Info
3 2-5 3 Project Description
100% 80 - 120% 100% User's Guide
100% 80 - 120% 100%
520 400 - 550 520
Irrigation Project
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
17.3% 18.2%
Memorandum (IM) ERR calculation,
of the IM (8/31/2006)
Economic Analysis ERR
Model Based on Economic Prices Revised IRR Calculations
(All cost/benefit figures in $'000)
0
Costs, Benefits, Net Benefit Scenarios, ERRs
Years
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 30 Years
Costs Sub-Total
A. Alatona Irrigation Project
1. Niono - Goma Coura Road
a. Niono-Diabaly Road (Section I) 20,076 -5,143 -9,970 -4,847 -58 -58
b. Diabaly-Goma Coura Road (Section II) 9,263 -2,034 -4,472 -2,632 -63 -63
c. Road O&M 4,000 0 0 0 0 0 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -3,269 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38
2. Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure
a. Main System Capacity Enhancement 3,327 -970 -2,263 0 -19 -75
b. Alatona Main System Works 35,156 -2,899 -9,214 -15,312 -6,931 -800
c. Alatona Distribution Network Works 66,185 0 -13,704 -19,693 -25,314 -7,475
d. Alatona Main System O&M 1,276 0 0 -212 -424 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640 -640
e. Alatona Distribution System O&M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
f. Support to Water Management 2,050 -170 -555 -1,090 -185 -50
3. Land Allocation
a. Land Parcel Creation 650 0 -250 -200 -200 0
b. Land Rights Education 1,500 -200 -400 -400 -250 -250
c. Registration System Upgrade 500 -50 -150 -100 -100 -100
d. Land Parcel Allocation and Titling 650 0 -200 -150 -150 -150
e. Land Revenue Collection and Management 200 0 -100 -100 0 0
4. Social Infrastructure, Social Services, Resettlement and Settlement
a. Presettlement 1,273 -307 -462 -448 -33 -25
b. Social Infrastructure 15,701 -2,166 -3,938 -3,890 -3,030 -2,677
c. Health Sector Interventions 3,061 -543 -846 -814 -429 -429
5. Agricultural Services
a. Support for Farmer Organizations 5,201 -87 -157 -1,313 -1,670 -1,975
b. Agricultural Extension and Farmer Training 1,928 -170 -286 -386 -486 -600
c. Applied Agricultural Research 5,450 -1,450 -1,450 -1,250 -650 -650
6. Financial Services
a. Loan Partial Guarantee Program 6,400 0 -200 -1,400 -2,100 -2,700
b. Credit Bureau Strengthening 200 -40 -100 -60 0 0
c. Financial Institution Capacity Building 750 -100 -200 -200 -150 -100
d. Support to Farmers 240 0 0 -80 -80 -80
B. Project Administration and M&E
1. Monitoring and Evaluation 2,736 -837 -290 -365 -393 -851
2. Project Management 20,861 -4,574 -4,072 -4,128 -4,016 -4,072
Total Costs
Physical Contingencies 26,979 -2,871 -8,060 -7,709 -5,916 -2,423
Total Costs 235,612 -24,609 -61,337 -66,777 -52,648 -26,242 -678 -678 -678 -678 -678 -678 -678 -678 -678 -3,909 -678 -678 -678 -678 -678 -678 -678 -678 -678 -678
Percent of Irrigable Land Irrigated By Year 0% 0% 85% 90% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Assumed to be 100%
VA of ON Agricultural Production
Rainy Season Paddy - 1st 5300 ha. 0 2,503 3,263 4,111 5,052 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139
Rainy Season Other - 1st 5300 ha 0 346 414 474 538 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565
Dry Season Production -1st 5300 ha. 0 1,847 2,487 3,116 3,529 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055
RS Paddy - 2nd 5300 ha. 0 2,253 3,099 4,111 5,052 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139
RS Other - 2nd 5300 ha. 0 311 393 474 538 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565
DS Production - 2nd 5300 ha. 0 1,754 2,487 3,116 3,529 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055
RS Paddy - 3rd 5400 ha 0 2,378 3,263 4,111 5,052 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139 5,139
RS Other - 3 rd 5400 ha 0 329 414 474 538 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565
DS Production - 3rd 5400 ha 0 1,847 2,487 3,116 3,529 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055 4,055
Rainy Season Benefits 0 0 2,849 6,240 10,784 13,852 15,879 16,998 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111 17,111
Dry Season Benefits 0 0 0 1,847 4,241 7,449 9,131 10,700 11,640 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166 12,166
Total ON Benefits 0 0 2,849 8,087 15,025 21,301 25,011 27,698 28,750 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277 29,277
Incremental ON VA (ON Production + Supply Chain)
Incremental RS Benefits 0 0 2,422 5,304 9,166 11,774 13,498 14,448 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544 14,544
Incremental DS Benefits 0 0 0 1,570 3,605 6,332 7,762 9,095 9,894 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341 10,341
Incremental Social Infrastructure Benefits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Incremental Social Infrastructure From Guarantee Fund 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Incremental ON Benefits 0 0 2,422 6,874 12,771 18,106 21,259 23,543 24,438 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886 24,886
Incremental Niono - Goma Coura Road VA
Incremental Road Benefits 62 62 62 2,330 2,663 2,950 3,289 3,514 3,694 3,828 3,972 4,121 4,276 4,438 4,606 4,781 4,964 5,153 5,351 5,557 5,771 5,995 6,227 6,470 6,722
Total Incremental Benefits 62 62 2,483 9,204 15,434 21,056 24,548 27,057 28,132 28,714 28,857 29,006 29,162 29,323 29,492 29,667 29,849 30,039 30,237 30,442 30,657 30,880 31,113 31,355 31,608
Net Benefit Stream ERR
Total Inc. Benefits-Total Costs - Alatona + Road 9.0% -24,547 -61,276 -64,293 -43,444 -10,808 20,378 23,870 26,379 27,453 28,035 28,179 28,328 28,483 28,645 25,582 28,988 29,171 29,360 29,558 29,764 29,978 30,202 30,434 30,677 30,929
Total Inc.Benefits-Total Costs - Alatona + Road + MSI 15.3% -30,547 -67,276 -64,293 -43,444 -10,808 20,378 35,345 37,854 50,403 50,985 62,604 62,753 62,908 63,070 60,007 63,413 63,596 63,785 63,983 64,189 64,403 64,627 64,859 65,102 98,504
Percentage of VA that is Incremental 85% Labor Dial
Value Chain Multiplier 0% Include Labor as Benefit? (1=Yes; 2=No) 1
Year Farmers are Installed (2-5) 3
Steady State Crop Mix and Intensity 2 1=Low Case (110%, No DS Rice or non-shallot veg); 2=Base Case (115%, No DS Rice); 3=High Case (120%); 4=main season rice only (100)%
Sensitivity Factors Road Dial Price Dial
Yields 100% Include Road? (1=Yes; 2=No) 1 Econ/Finan Prices 1
Project Costs 1.00 1 = Economic prices
Farmer Cost of Production 100% Exchange Rate 2 = Financial prices
Output Prices 100% CFA/$ 520
Scenarios: 1 110% Cropping intensity with no DS rice or non-shallot vegetables,
Low Case
2 Yields are only 80% of Expected Levels, and Project Costs are 120% of Expected Levels
3 115% cropping intensity with no DS Rice but with non-shallot vegetables,
Base Case
4 Yields and Project Costs are as Expected
5 120% Cropping Intensity with DS Rice and non-shallot vegetables,
High Case
Yields are 120% of Expected Levels, and Project Costs are 80% of Expected Levels
0
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
Beneficiary and Farming System Assumptions Redundant tables were hidden rather than deleted.
Assuming 16,000 hectares
of net irrigation after allowance for roads etc. July 2006 - Consensus Figures ON, MCC, MCA and CDM
ON Farms by Size Woodlot Assumptions by Farm Size
Size (Ha) Number Total HA % Land Note Farm Number Total
5 400 2,000 12.5% New Settlers (Ha)
Size HH's HA/hh HA
5 800 4,000 25.0% Resettled
10 500 5,000 31.3%
30 70 2,100 13.1%
60 48 2,900 18.1%
Total 1818 16,000 100.0%
% of Farms < 30 Ha 68.8%
Farms of size 60 ha above actually range from 30 ha to 120 ha, with average of 60 ha.
Total Irrigable Area/10 Ha Source Table for Alternative Steady State Intensity and Diversification Source Table for Alternative Steady State Intensity and Diversification
Crop Mix Assumptions Mixes (per Ha) July 2006 Options Mixes (per Ha)
Low Case No Rice in July 2006 1st Year for Scenarios Not 1st Year for 2nd Ag
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Crops Start Point Crops
Crops (110%) DS (Base) Appraisal (High) Based on 2nd Ag DD Trip DD Trip Scenario
Rainy season Paddy 86% 87% 89% 90% 92% Rainy season Paddy 86% 92% 92% 92% Rainy season Paddy 99% 86%
DS Wheat 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DS Wheat 0% 0% 0% 0% DS Wheat 0% 0%
RS Maize 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% RS Maize 8% 8% 8% 8% RS Maize 0% 8%
Dry Season Paddy 10% 8% 5% 3% 0% Dry Season Paddy 10% 0% 0% 5% Dry Season Paddy 10% 10%
DS Maize 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% DS Maize 2% 3% 3% 3% DS Maize 2% 2%
DS Shallots 3% 5% 6% 8% 9% DS Shallots 3% 6% 9% 9% DS Shallots 6% 3%
DS Potato 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% DS Potato 2% 0% 0% 0% DS Potato 0% 2%
DS Tomato/other veg. 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% DS Tomato/other veg. 1% 1% 3% 3% DS Tomato/other veg. 3% 1%
DS Niebe (forage) 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% DS Niebe (forage) 1% 0% 0% 0% DS Niebe (forage) 0% 1%
Total RS 94% 95% 97% 98% 100% Total 113% 110% 115% 120% Total 121% 113%
Total DS 19% 18% 17% 16% 15%
DS Cereal 12% 10% 7% 5% 3%
DS Non Cereal 7% 8% 10% 11% 12%
Total 113% 113% 114% 114% 115%
0.37
In Ha In Ha
Projected Crop Areas By Crop By Year /a Projected Cropped Areas by Crop By Farm Size in Steady State
Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Crops 5 10 30 60 90 120 Totals
RS Paddy 13,728 13,976 14,224 14,472 14,720 RS Paddy 1,840 4,600 1,932 2,668 0 0 11,040
DS Wheat 0 0 0 0 0 Wheat 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RS Maize 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 RS Maize 160 400 168 232 0 0 960
DS Paddy 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 DS Paddy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DS Maize 319 359 399 440 480 DS Maize 60 150 63 87 0 0 360
Shallots (DS) 480 720 960 1,200 1,440 Shallots (DS) 180 450 189 261 0 0 1,080
Potato (DS) 320 240 160 80 0 Potato (DS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tomato (DS) 120 210 300 390 480 Tomato (DS) 60 150 63 87 0 0 360
Niebe Forage (DS) 200 150 100 50 0 Niebe For. (DS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 18,047 18,135 18,223 18,312 18,400 Total 2,300 5,750 2,415 3,335 0 0 13,800
/a These values are used for calculating crop VA streams, crop area will not actually be
achieved in this fashion as the land will come on-line in thirds.
Yield Assumptions by Year Total Tons of Production by Crop /b
Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Units Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5
Rainy season Paddy 4.5 5 5.5 6 6 T/HA RS Paddy 61,775 69,879 78,231 86,831 88,319
Wheat DS 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 3 T/HA Wheat 0 0 0 0 0
Maize RS 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 5 T/HA Maize RS 4,864 5,376 5,760 6,144 6,400
Dry Season Paddy 4 4.5 5 5 5 T/HA DS Paddy 6,400 5,400 4,000 2,000 0
Maize DS 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.5 T/HA Maize DS 1,021 1,257 1,558 1,847 2,160
Shallots 25 26 27 28 30 T/HA Shallots 12,000 18,720 25,920 33,600 43,199
Potato 18 22 26 30 32 T/HA Potato 5,760 5,280 4,160 2,400 0
Tomato/other veg. 18 19 20 22 24 T/HA Tomato/other veg. 2,160 3,990 6,000 8,580 11,520
Niebe Hay (forage) 1.2 1.6 2 2 2 T/HA Niebe Hay(forage) 240 240 200 100 0
Fish 0 0 0 0 0
Total (Tons) 94,219 110,142 125,828 141,501 151,598
/b Same as projected crop areas, this is used as a source table to calculate tons
of production for transport in the Alatona Prod Sheet
Crop Prices, Production Costs, and Net Returns/ha
Gross Returns/HA/YR (CFA '000) Net Returns/ha/yr (CFA '000)
Crops CFA/KG Costs/ha Gross Y1 Gross Y2 Gross Y3 Gross Y4 Gross Y5 Net Y1 Net Y2 Net Y3 Net Y4 Net Y5
Rainy Season Paddy 140 351 630 700 770 840 840 279 349 419 489 489
Wheat (DS) 180 200 270 324 378 432 540 70 124 178 232 340
Maize RS 160 193 608 672 720 768 800 415 479 527 575 607
Dry Season Paddy 140 227 560 630 700 700 700 333 403 473 473 473
Maize DS 160 193 512 560 624 672 720 319 367 431 479 527
Shallots 150 952 3,750 3,900 4,050 4,200 4,500 2,798 2,948 3,098 3,248 3,548
Potato 200 1,919 3,600 4,400 5,200 6,000 6,400 1,681 2,481 3,281 4,081 4,481
Tomato/other veg. 40 591 720 760 800 880 960 129 169 209 289 369
Niebe Hay (forage) 250 97 300 400 500 500 500 203 303 403 403 403
Prices and per ha costs (with family labor) were borrowed from Crawford files.
Paddy Labor Costs as % of Total Cost 16%
Maize and Niebe Labor Cost as % of Total Cost 42%
Bananas, Shallots, Potatoes, Tomatoes Labor Cost
45%
as % of Total Cost
Net Returns/ha/yr (USD) Labor Costs/ha/yr (USD)
Crops Net Y1 Net Y2 Net Y3 Net Y4 Net Y5 Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5
Rainy Season Paddy 537 671 806 940 940 0.00 Rainy season Paddy 107 107 107 107 107
Wheat (DS) 135 238 342 446 654 0.00 Wheat (DS) 174 174 174 174 174
Maize RS 798 921 1,013 1,106 1,167 0.00 Maize RS 156 156 156 156 156
Dry Season Paddy 640 775 910 910 910 0.00 Dry Season Paddy 69 69 69 69 69
Maize DS 613 706 829 921 1,013 0.00 Maize DS 156 156 156 156 156
Shallots 5,381 5,669 5,958 6,246 6,823 0.00 Shallots 828 828 828 828 828
Potato 3,233 4,771 6,310 7,848 8,617 0.00 Potato 1,670 1,670 1,670 1,670 1,670
Tomato/other veg. 248 325 402 556 710 0.00 Tomato/other veg. 514 514 514 514 514
Niebe Hay (forage) 390 583 775 775 775 0.00 Niebe Hay (forage) 284 284 284 284 284
Crop VA Streams by quarter (beginning with the first rainy season after
resettlement, which is done in the dry season). Each Quarter = 5300 HA.
All benefit streams are constant in year 5 and afterwards. ($'000)
Value Added By Crop By Year ($'000)
Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5
RS Paddy 2,945 3,625 4,328 5,052 5,139
Wheat (DS) 0 0 0 0 0
RS Maize 407 460 499 538 565
DS Paddy 378 338 261 131 0
DS Maize 82 103 131 158 187
Shallots 993 1,559 2,171 2,830 3,673
Potato 523 515 426 254 0
Tomato 30 59 92 139 196
Niebe Hay 45 43 35 18 0
Sub RS Other (1,2) 407 460 499 538 565
Sub DS Crops (3-9) 2,052 2,618 3,116 3,529 4,055
Total 5,404 6,702 7,943 9,119 9,759
Highlighted Streams used to calculate Summary IRR
dfaa79ae-92f3-445a-a378-35fa85143d93.xls
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
Project Components by Year -- Base Costs
(US$ Million) 0
2007 2008 2009
A. Alatona Irrigation Project
1. Niono - Goma Coura Road
a. Niono-Diabaly Road (Section I) 5.14 9.97 4.85
b. Diabaly-Goma Coura Road (Section II) 2.03 4.47 2.63
Subtotal Niono - Goma Coura Road 7.18 14.44 7.48
2. Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure
a. Main System Capacity Enhancement 0.97 2.26 0.00
b. Alatona Main System Works 2.90 9.21 15.31
c. Alatona Distribution Network Works 0.00 13.70 19.69
d. Alatona Main System O&M 0.00 0.00 0.21
f. Support to Water Management 0.17 0.56 1.09
Subtotal Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure 4.04 25.74 36.31
3. Land Allocation
a. Land Parcel Creation 0.00 0.25 0.20
b. Land Rights Education 0.20 0.40 0.40
c. Registration System Upgrade 0.05 0.15 0.10
d. Land Parcel Allocation and Titling 0.00 0.20 0.15
e. Land Revenue Collection and Management 0.00 0.10 0.10
Subtotal Land Allocation 0.25 1.10 0.95
4. Social Infrastructure, Social Services, Resettlement
and Settlement
a. Presettlement 0.31 0.46 0.45
b. Social Infrastructure 2.17 3.94 3.89
c. Health Sector Interventions 0.54 0.85 0.81
Subtotal Social Infrastructure, Social Services,
Resettlement and Settlement 3.02 5.25 5.15
5. Agricultural Services
a. Support for Farmer Organizations 0.09 0.16 1.31
b. Agricultural Extension and Farmer Training 0.17 0.29 0.39
c. Applied Agricultural Research 1.45 1.45 1.25
Subtotal Agricultural Services 1.71 1.89 2.95
6. Financial Services
a. Loan Partial Guarantee Program 0.00 0.20 1.40
b. Credit Bureau Strengthening 0.04 0.10 0.06
c. Financial Institution Capacity Building 0.10 0.20 0.20
d. Support to Farmers 0.00 0.00 0.08
Subtotal Financial Services 0.14 0.50 1.74
Subtotal Alatona Irrigation Project 16.33 48.92 54.57
B. Monitoring and Evaluation 0.84 0.29 0.37
C. Program Administration and Controls 4.57 4.07 4.13
Page 17
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Total BASELINE COSTS 21.74 53.28 59.07
Physical Contingencies 2.87 8.06 7.71
Price Contingencies 0.34 2.87 4.66
Total PROJECT COSTS 24.94 64.21 71.44
e. Alatona Distribution System O&M 0.00 0.00 0.74
The project total ignores allowance on MSI and Alatona
A. Alatona Irrigation Project
1. Niono - Goma Coura Road
a. Niono-Diabaly Road (Section I)
b. Diabaly-Goma Coura Road (Section II)
Subtotal Niono - Goma Coura Road
2. Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure
a. Main System Capacity Enhancement
b. Alatona Main System Works
c. Alatona Distribution Network Works
d. Alatona Main System O&M
f. Support to Water Management
Subtotal Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure
3. Land Allocation
a. Land Parcel Creation
b. Land Rights Education
c. Registration System Upgrade
d. Land Parcel Allocation and Titling
e. Land Revenue Collection and Management
Subtotal Land Allocation
4. Social Infrastructure, Social Services, Resettlement and Settlement
a. Presettlement
b. Social Infrastructure
c. Health Sector Interventions
Subtotal Social Infrastructure, Social Services, Resettlement and Settlement
5. Agricultural Services
a. Support for Farmer Organizations
b. Agricultural Extension and Farmer Training
c. Applied Agricultural Research
Subtotal Agricultural Services
6. Financial Services
a. Loan Partial Guarantee Program
b. Credit Bureau Strengthening
Page 18
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c. Financial Institution Capacity Building
d. Support to Farmers
Subtotal Financial Services
Subtotal Alatona Irrigation Project
B. Monitoring and Evaluation
C. Program Administration and Controls
Total BASELINE COSTS
Physical Contingencies
Price Contingencies
Total PROJECT COSTS
e. Alatona Distribution System O&M
A. Alatona Irrigation Project
1. Presettlement
2. Niono - Goma Coura Road
a. Niono-Diabaly Road (Section I)
b. Diabaly-Goma Coura Road (Section II)
Subtotal Niono - Goma Coura Road
3. Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure
a. Main System Capacity Enhancement
b. Alatona Main System Works
c. Alatona Distribution Network Works
d. Alatona Main System O&M
e. Alatona Distribution System O&M
Subtotal Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure
4. Land Allocation
5. Social Infrastructure, Social Services, Resettlement and Settlement
a. Social Infrastructure
b. Health Sector Interventions
Subtotal Social Infrastructure, Social Services, Resettlement and Settlement
6. Agricultural Services
a. Agricultural Extension and Farmer Training
b. Applied Agricultural Research
c. Commodity Chain Development
Subtotal Agricultural Services
7. Financial Services
a. Loan Partial Guarantee Program
b. Credit Bureau Strengthening
c. Financial Institution Capacity Building
d. Support to Farmers
Subtotal Financial Services
8. Institutional Strenthening
a. Support for Farmer Organizations
b. Support to Water Management
Subtotal Institutional Strenthening
Page 19
dfaa79ae-92f3-445a-a378-35fa85143d93.xls
2010 2011 Total
0.06 0.06 20.08
0.06 0.06 9.26
0.12 0.12 29.34
0.02 0.07 3.33
6.93 0.80 35.16
25.31 7.47 66.19
0.42 0.64 1.28
0.19 0.05 2.05
32.87 9.04 107.99
0.20 0.00 0.65
0.25 0.25 1.50
0.10 0.10 0.50
0.15 0.15 0.65
0.00 0.00 0.20
0.70 0.50 3.50
0.03 0.03 1.27
3.03 2.68 15.70
0.43 0.43 3.06
3.49 3.13 20.03
1.67 1.98 5.20
0.49 0.60 1.93
0.65 0.65 5.45
2.81 3.23 12.58
2.10 2.70 6.40
0.00 0.00 0.20
0.15 0.10 0.75
0.08 0.08 0.24
2.33 2.88 7.59
42.32 18.90 181.04
0.39 0.85 2.74
4.02 4.07 20.86
Page 20
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46.73 23.82 204.63
5.92 2.42 26.98
5.02 2.66 15.56
57.67 28.90 247.17
1.48 2.24 4.47
Base Cost
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total
5.14 9.97 4.85 0.06 0.06 20.08
2.03 4.47 2.63 0.06 0.06 9.26
7.18 14.44 7.48 0.12 0.12 29.34
0.97 2.26 0.00 0.02 0.07 3.33
2.90 9.21 15.31 6.93 0.80 35.16
0.00 13.70 19.69 25.31 7.47 66.19
0.00 0.00 0.21 0.42 0.64 1.28
0.17 0.56 1.09 0.19 0.05 2.05
4.04 25.74 36.31 32.87 9.04 107.99
0.00 0.25 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.65
0.20 0.40 0.40 0.25 0.25 1.50
0.05 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.50
0.00 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.65
0.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.20
0.25 1.10 0.95 0.70 0.50 3.50
0.31 0.46 0.45 0.03 0.03 1.27
2.17 3.94 3.89 3.03 2.68 15.70
0.54 0.85 0.81 0.43 0.43 3.06
3.02 5.25 5.15 3.49 3.13 20.03
0.09 0.16 1.31 1.67 1.98 5.20
0.17 0.29 0.39 0.49 0.60 1.93
1.45 1.45 1.25 0.65 0.65 5.45
1.71 1.89 2.95 2.81 3.23 12.58
0.00 0.20 1.40 2.10 2.70 6.40
0.04 0.10 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.20
Page 21
dfaa79ae-92f3-445a-a378-35fa85143d93.xls
0.10 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.75
0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.24
0.14 0.50 1.74 2.33 2.88 7.59
16.33 48.92 54.57 42.32 18.90 181.04
0.84 0.29 0.37 0.39 0.85 2.74 55.7% of total M&E Costs of $4.9m
4.57 4.07 4.13 4.02 4.07 20.86 55.7% of total Program Admin Costs of $37.4m
21.74 53.28 59.07 46.73 23.82 204.63
2.87 8.06 7.71 5.92 2.42 26.98
0.34 2.87 4.66 5.02 2.66 15.56
24.94 64.21 71.44 57.67 28.90 247.17
0.00 0.00 0.74 1.48 2.24 4.47 Already in Crop Budget
0.31 0.46 0.45 0.03 0.03 1.27
5.14 9.97 4.85 0.06 0.06 20.08
2.03 4.47 2.63 0.06 0.06 9.26
7.18 14.44 7.48 0.12 0.12 29.34
0.97 2.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.24
3.04 9.62 15.86 7.21 0.80 36.53
0.00 12.45 14.93 15.82 2.76 45.97
0.00 0.00 0.21 0.42 0.64 1.28
0.00 Already in Crop Budget
4.01 24.34 31.01 23.45 4.20 87.01
0.05 0.05 0.53 0.53 0.54 1.72
2.17 3.94 3.89 3.03 2.68 15.70
0.54 0.85 0.81 0.43 0.43 3.06
2.71 4.78 4.70 3.46 3.11 18.76
0.09 0.19 0.28 0.37 0.50 1.44
1.30 1.30 1.20 0.60 0.60 5.00
0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.55
1.50 1.60 1.59 1.08 1.21 6.99
0.00 0.00 1.25 2.00 2.75 6.00
0.04 0.10 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.20
0.10 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.75
0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.24
0.14 0.30 1.59 2.23 2.93 7.19
0.02 0.05 0.11 0.18 0.29 0.64
0.80 0.35 0.81 0.05 0.05 2.05
0.82 0.39 0.92 0.22 0.34 2.69
Page 22
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Page 23
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Page 24
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min Costs of $37.4m
Page 25
Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
PRELIMINARY TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS
LV Traffic Growth Rate 1.05 Diverted traffic as % of Normal: 0.00 LV - VOC on existing road (FCFA/v-km):
HV Traffic Growth Rate 1.03 Generated LV traffic as % of Normal: 0.5 LV - VOC on upgraded road (FCFA/v-km):
Days/Year: 365 Generated HV traffic as % of Normal: 0.30 HV - VOC on existing road (FCFA/v-km):
National Funding of 0&M Requirements 90.3% HV - VOC on upgraded road (FCFA/v-km):
Time savings factor (% of VOC Savings):
LV Tariff on existing road (FCFA per passenger-km) 35 LV Elas. Factor 1 Average Passenger Load
LV Tarriff on upgraded road (FCFA per passenger-km) 20 Average Truck Load (Tons)
HV Tariff on existing road (FCFA ton/km) 124 HV Elas. Factor 0.6 LV AARV: HV AARV for Niono-Diabily
HV Tariff on upgraded road (FCFA ton/km) 62 LV AARV: HV AARV for Diabaly Goma Coura
0
NIONO - DIABALY SECTION Length: 54 DIABALY - GOMA COURA SECTION
Normal Traffic Diverted Traffic Induced Traffic AIP Traffic Normal Traffic Diverted Traffic
Year LV HV LV HV LV HV LV HV Total LV HV LV
1 128 29 157 52 14
2 134 30 164.27 55 14
3 141 31 171.8861 57 15
4 148 32 0 0 74 10 0 8 271 60 15 0
5 156 33 0 0 78 10 0 17 293 63 16 0
6 163 34 0 0 82 10 0 25 314 66 16 0
7 172 35 0 0 86 10 0 35 337 70 17 0
8 180 36 0 0 90 11 0 40 356 73 17 0
9 189 37 0 0 95 11 0 43 374 77 18 0
10 199 38 0 0 99 11 0 44 391 81 18 0
11 208 39 0 0 104 12 0 45 409 85 19 0
12 219 40 0 0 109 12 0 46 427 89 19 0
13 230 41 0 0 115 12 0 48 446 93 20 0
14 241 43 0 0 121 13 0 49 467 98 21 0
15 253 44 0 0 127 13 0 51 488 103 21 0
16 266 45 0 0 133 14 0 52 510 108 22 0
17 279 47 0 0 140 14 0 54 533 114 22 0
18 293 48 0 0 147 14 0 55 558 119 23 0
19 308 49 0 0 154 15 0 57 583 125 24 0
20 323 51 0 0 162 15 0 59 610 131 25 0
21 340 52 0 0 170 16 0 61 638 138 25 0
Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation
22 357 54 0 0 178 16 0 62 667 145 26 0
23 374 56 0 0 187 17 0 64 698 152 27 0
24 393 57 0 0 197 17 0 66 730 160 28 0
25 413 59 0 0 206 18 0 68 764 168 28 0
Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC EVALUATION (In Economic Costs, FCFA Millions)
Project Price Existing Niono - Diabaly VOC & Time Savings Diabaly - Goma Coura VOC & Time Savings
Con/Main Contingency Maint. Normal Diverted Generated AIP Total Normal Diverted Generated AIP
Cost Spending Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic
Year
1 -4259 32
2 -8,568 32
3 -4,423 32
4 -49 32 738 0 150 83 971 157 0 31 20
5 -49 32 768 0 157 187 1112 163 0 33 45
6 -20 32 799 0 163 271 1233 170 0 34 65
7 -20 32 832 0 170 374 1376 176 0 35 90
8 -20 32 866 0 178 428 1472 184 0 37 103
9 -20 32 901 0 186 461 1548 191 0 39 111
10 -20 32 939 0 194 474 1606 199 0 40 114
11 -20 32 977 0 202 488 1667 207 0 42 117
12 -20 32 1018 0 211 502 1731 215 0 44 121
13 -20 32 1060 0 220 518 1798 224 0 46 125
14 -20 32 1104 0 230 533 1867 233 0 48 128
15 -1700 32 1150 0 240 549 1939 242 0 50 132
16 -20 32 1198 0 251 566 2014 252 0 52 136
17 -20 32 1248 0 262 582 2092 263 0 54 140
18 -20 32 1300 0 273 600 2174 273 0 56 144
19 -20 32 1355 0 285 618 2258 285 0 59 149
20 -20 32 1412 0 298 636 2347 296 0 61 153
21 -20 32 1472 0 311 656 2439 309 0 64 158
22 -20 32 1534 0 325 675 2534 322 0 67 163
23 -20 32 1599 0 340 695 2634 335 0 70 167
24 -20 32 1667 0 355 716 2738 349 0 73 172
25 -20 32 1738 0 371 738 2846 363 0 76 178
TOTAL -19428 0 800 25674 0 5371 11351 42396 5407 0 1109 2733
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC EVALUATION (In Economic Costs, Dollars)
Project Price Existing Niono - Diabaly VOC & Time Savings Diabaly - Goma Coura VOC & Time Savings
Con/Main Contingency Maint. Normal Diverted Generated AIP Total Normal Diverted Generated AIP
Cost Spending Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic
Year
Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation
1 -8,190,615 0 61,538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 -16,476,135 0 61,538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 -8,505,442 0 61,538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 -94,831 0 61,538 1,418,662 0 288,734 160,395 1,867,791 301,781 0 60,120 38,614
5 -94,831 0 61,538 1,476,409 0 301,192 360,386 2,137,986 313,805 0 62,666 86,759
6 -38,462 0 61,538 1,536,647 0 314,215 520,720 2,371,582 326,338 0 65,326 125,358
7 -38,462 0 61,538 1,599,490 0 327,827 719,506 2,646,823 339,403 0 68,105 173,214
8 -38,462 0 61,538 1,665,055 0 342,057 823,174 2,830,287 353,024 0 71,007 198,172
9 -38,462 0 61,538 1,733,467 0 356,934 887,082 2,977,482 367,225 0 74,040 213,557
10 -38,462 0 61,538 1,804,853 0 372,487 910,767 3,088,108 382,033 0 77,209 219,259
11 -38,462 0 61,538 1,879,351 0 388,750 938,090 3,206,191 397,475 0 80,521 225,836
12 -38,462 0 61,538 1,957,101 0 405,755 966,233 3,329,088 413,579 0 83,981 232,612
13 -38,462 0 61,538 2,038,252 0 423,537 995,220 3,457,008 430,376 0 87,598 239,590
14 -38,462 0 61,538 2,122,959 0 442,133 1,025,076 3,590,168 447,895 0 91,378 246,778
15 -3,269,231 0 61,538 2,211,386 0 461,581 1,055,829 3,728,795 466,171 0 95,329 254,181
16 -38,462 0 61,538 2,303,702 0 481,922 1,087,503 3,873,128 485,237 0 99,459 261,806
17 -38,462 0 61,538 2,400,086 0 503,198 1,120,129 4,023,413 505,129 0 103,777 269,661
18 -38,462 0 61,538 2,500,726 0 525,454 1,153,732 4,179,912 525,884 0 108,290 277,750
19 -38,462 0 61,538 2,605,817 0 548,734 1,188,344 4,342,896 547,542 0 113,009 286,083
20 -38,462 0 61,538 2,715,564 0 573,090 1,223,995 4,512,648 570,144 0 117,944 294,665
21 -38,462 0 61,538 2,830,182 0 598,570 1,260,715 4,689,466 593,733 0 123,103 303,505
22 -38,462 0 61,538 2,949,896 0 625,229 1,298,536 4,873,661 618,353 0 128,498 312,611
23 -38,462 0 61,538 3,074,941 0 653,123 1,337,492 5,065,557 644,053 0 134,140 321,989
24 -38,462 0 61,538 3,205,566 0 682,311 1,377,617 5,265,494 670,881 0 140,041 331,649
25 -38,462 0 61,538 3,342,028 0 712,854 1,418,945 5,473,828 698,889 0 146,213 341,598
TOTAL -37,361,854 0 1,538,462 49,372,138 0 10,329,686 21,829,487 81,531,311 10,398,949 0 2,131,756 5,255,247
Alatona Projection, Price Contigency, Maintenance Savings ON Model is Base Case
(1: Consultant; 2: MCC Parameters; 3: MCC Parameters 2
w/o Alatona)
Exchange Rate 520
Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation
existing road (FCFA/v-km): 244
upgraded road (FCFA/v-km): 144
existing road (FCFA/v-km): 738
upgraded road (FCFA/v-km): 332
factor (% of VOC Savings): 1.352
12
12 ON Model is Base Case
0.0
0
Length: 26
Diverted Traffic Induced Traffic AIP Traffic
HV LV HV LV HV Total
66
69.02
72.1826
0 30 5 0 4 114
0 32 5 0 9 124
0 33 5 0 13 133
0 35 5 0 17 144
0 37 5 0 20 152
0 38 5 0 21 160
0 40 5 0 22 167
0 42 6 0 23 174
0 44 6 0 23 182
0 47 6 0 24 190
0 49 6 0 25 198
0 51 6 0 25 207
0 54 7 0 26 217
0 57 7 0 27 226
0 60 7 0 28 237
0 63 7 0 29 247
0 66 7 0 29 258
0 69 8 0 30 270
Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation
0 72 8 0 31 282
0 76 8 0 32 295
0 80 8 0 33 309
0 84 9 0 34 323
Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation
Total Total
Total VOC/Time Net
Traffic Savings Benefits
-4227
-8536
-4391
208 1180 1162
241 1353 1335
269 1502 1514
302 1678 1690
324 1795 1807
341 1889 1901
353 1959 1971
366 2033 2045
380 2111 2123
394 2192 2204
409 2276 2288
424 2363 695
440 2454 2466
457 2549 2561
474 2648 2660
492 2751 2763
511 2858 2870
531 2969 2981
551 3085 3097
572 3206 3218
594 3332 3344
617 3463 3475
9249 51645 33017
25 Year EIRR 8.9%
20 Year EIRR 6.9%
Total Total
Total VOC/Time Net
Traffic Savings Benefits
Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation
0 0 -8,129,077
0 0 -16,414,596
0 0 -8,443,904
400,514 2,268,305 2,235,012
463,230 2,601,217 2,567,924
517,022 2,888,604 2,911,681
580,722 3,227,545 3,250,622
622,203 3,452,490 3,475,566
654,822 3,632,305 3,655,382
678,501 3,766,609 3,789,686
703,833 3,910,023 3,933,100
730,172 4,059,261 4,082,338
757,564 4,214,572 4,237,649
786,051 4,376,219 4,399,296
815,681 4,544,476 1,336,784
846,502 4,719,630 4,742,707
878,566 4,901,979 4,925,056
911,925 5,091,837 5,114,914
946,634 5,289,530 5,312,607
982,753 5,495,401 5,518,478
1,020,341 5,709,807 5,732,884
1,059,462 5,933,123 5,956,200
1,100,182 6,165,739 6,188,816
1,142,571 6,408,065 6,431,142
1,186,700 6,660,528 6,683,605
17,785,951 99,317,262 63,493,870
25 Year EIRR 8.9%
20 Year EIRR 6.9%
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
Indicative Economic Analysis of Main System Improvements - Figures in '000 US$
0
Proposed Alatona Scheme Other Irrigation Schemes Upstream of Alatona Other Irrigation Schemes Upstream
With Project Benefit, Costs, Cash Flow Without Main System Improvements With Main System Improvements
Total
Inc. Cash Existing New Irrig. New Infra. New Inf. Equipped Total Value Of Existing
Years Benefit Inc. Costs Flow Irrig. Area Area Cost/ha Cost Area Rice Yield Production Production Irrig. Area
US$ US$ US$ ha ha US$/ha US$ ha tons/ha tons US$ ha
1 62 -24,609 -24547 80000 80000 6 480000 129600 80000
2 62 -61,337 -61276 80000 6 480000 129600
3 2483 -66,777 -64293 80000 6 480000 129600
4 9204 -52,648 -43444 80000 6 480000 129600
5 15434 -26,242 -10808 5000 6 30000 85000 6 510000 137700
6 21056 -678 20378 85000 6 510000 137700
7 24548 -678 23870 85000 5.5 467500 126225
8 27057 -678 26379 85000 5.5 467500 126225
9 28132 -678 27453 85000 5 425000 114750
10 28714 -678 28035 85000 5 425000 114750
11 28857 -678 28179 85000 4.5 382500 103275
12 29006 -678 28328 85000 4.5 382500 103275
13 29162 -678 28483 85000 4.5 382500 103275
14 29323 -678 28645 85000 4.5 382500 103275
15 29492 -3,909 25582 85000 4.5 382500 103275
16 29667 -678 28988 85000 4.5 382500 103275
17 29849 -678 29171 85000 4.5 382500 103275
18 30039 -678 29360 85000 4.5 382500 103275
19 30237 -678 29558 85000 4.5 382500 103275
20 30442 -678 29764 85000 4.5 382500 103275
21 30657 -678 29978 85000 4.5 382500 103275
22 30880 -678 30202 85000 4.5 382500 103275
23 31113 -678 30434 85000 4.5 382500 103275
24 31355 -678 30677 85000 4.5 382500 103275
25 31608 -678 30929 85000 5 425000 70125
IRR 9.0%
Other Irrigation Schemes Upstream of Alatona Other Schemes Incremental Combined Alatona
With Main System Improvements Returns on MSI Investments and Non-Alatona Schemes
Total
New Irrig. New Infra. New Inf. Total Inf. Equipped Total Value Of Incr. Inc. Cash Cash
Area Cost/ha Cost MSI Costs Cost Area Rice Yield Production Production Costs Returns Flow Flow
ha US$/ha US$ US$ US$ ha tons/ha tons US$ US$ US$ US$ US$
6000 6000 80000 6 480000 129600 6000 0 -6000 -30547
6000 6000 80000 6 480000 129600 6000 0 -6000 -67276
0 80000 6 480000 129600 0 0 0 -64293
0 80000 6 480000 129600 0 0 0 -43444
5000 6 30000 30000 85000 6 510000 137700 0 0 0 -10808
0 85000 6 510000 137700 0 0 0 20378
85000 6 510000 137700 0 11475 11475 35345
85000 6 510000 137700 0 11475 11475 37854
85000 6 510000 137700 0 22950 22950 50403
85000 6 510000 137700 0 22950 22950 50985
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 62604
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 62753
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 62908
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 63070
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 60007
Economic price of paddy is 0.27
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 63413
cents per kg.
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 63596
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 63785
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 63983
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 64189
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 64403
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 64627
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 64859
85000 6 510000 137700 0 34425 34425 65102
85000 6 510000 137700 0 67575 67575 98504
IRR 38.7% IRR
Combined Alatona
and Non-Alatona Schemes
15.3%
0
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
Av g Per Total Av g Per Farm Total
Farming Beneficiary Calculation Farm Laborer Beneficiary Calculation
Total Area Av ail f or Farming Total Area Av ail f or Farming
16,000 16,000
Number of Farms Number of Farms
1818 1818
Number of People per 5 Ha 12.8 Number of Laborer Benef iciaries 6.5 11,903
Number of 5 Ha Farm
Number of Farmer Benef iciaries
16.0 29,104 Laborer Benef iciaries 0 0
Number of 5 Ha Farm Number of 10 Ha Farm
Benef iciaries (Newly 12.8 5,120 Laborer Benef iciaries 0 0
Settled) of 5 Ha Farm
Number Number of 30 Ha Farm
Benef iciaries (Resettled) 12.8 10,240 Laborer Benef iciaries 64 4,480
Number of Larger Farm
Number of 10 Ha Farm Benef iciaries
25.6 12,800 Laborer Benef iciaries 153.6 7,423
Number of 30 Ha Farm Benef iciaries
12.8 896
Number of Larger Farm Benef iciaries
1 48
Size of Resettlement Package (In Ha out of a 5 Ha 2
Farm
Land Price to Include in Farmer Income Calculation 1 1: $5,000 Per Ha, 20 Y r Loan Term, 0% Interest, 1 Y ear Grace (Land DD Reccs); 2: Direct Link to Land_Financing Sheet
This Sheet Does Not Include Road Costs or Road
Beneficiaries
Wages as a Percentage of Total VA 11.2%
Labor Costs as Percentage of Total 18.4%
Costs for ON Ag Production
Total Benficiaries (Farmers + Laborers)
Total Beneficiaries 41,008
Project Costs Per Beneficiary
Calculation does not include Road Costs or Beneficiaries
Irrigation Project Cost/Beneficiary ($) 3,226
Project Cost Attributed to Farm Calculation does not include Road Costs or Beneficiaries
Beneficiaries/Farm Benficiary ($) 3,971
Project Cost Attributed to Calculation does not include Road Costs or Beneficiaries
1,406
Laborer/ Laborer Beneficiary ($)
Road Beneficiaries 70,000
Road Cost per Beneficiary ($) 482
Farmer Owner Change in Income Laborer Beneficiary Change in Income
Income Level Achieved By Project for 5 Ha Farm (Newly Settled Farmers)
Implied Annual Profits of the Average 5 Ha Farm ($) Av erage Annual Wage Per Laborer in SS ($) 231
Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Valuation of Food Prov ided to Laborer in SS ($) 63
Rainy Season Paddy 2,302 2,931 3,582 4,253 4,326 Av erage Annual Wage Per Laborer In SS ($) 294
Wheat (DS) 0 0 0 0 0
Maize RS 319 368 405 442 467 Note:
Dry Season Paddy 320 291 227 114 0 This analy sis assumes that all of the Laborer Benef iciaries will earn a wage. It is likely that some
Maize DS 61 79 103 127 152 of these benef iciaries will in f act be non-working f amily members. This potential ov erstating of incomes
Shallots 807 1,276 1,787 2,342 3,070 is balanced by the f act that the Laborer Benef iciaries' role on the larger f arms will likely go bey ond that
Potato 323 358 315 196 0 of seasonal labor to being tenant f armers and receiv ing a share of crop income on the 30 Ha and larger
Tomato/other v eg. 9 21 38 68 106 f arms.
Niebe Hay (f orage) 24 27 24 12 0
Farm Income 4,166 5,352 6,483 7,554 8,122
Land Pay ment 0 -1,250 -1,250 -1,250 -1,250
Laborer Income 0 0 0 0 0
Income After Land and Labor 4,166 4,102 5,233 6,304 6,872
People per Farm 12.8
Tot Inc/Person 326 320 409 492 537
Estimate of Percentage Farm HH Income that is Incremental 61%
Estimate of Percentage of Total Project Income that is Incremental: 57% Total Weighted Average Increase 418
Range of Potential Alternative Income Opportunties As Range of Potential Alternative Income Opportunties As
Compared to Implied S.S. Profits Level Per Person of $ 537 Compared to Implied Average S.S. Laborer's Wage of $ 294
Alternati Alternativ Implied $ Implied % of Alternativ Implied $ Implied % of
ve e Below Change in Relativ e Project Alternativ e e Below Change in Relativ e Project
Alternativ e Scenarios Income Pov erty Income Change in Income Alternativ e Scenarios Income Per Pov erty Income Change in Income
Per Line? Per Income that is Person ($) Line? Per Income per that is
Person (Y /N) Person per Increment (Y /N) Person Person Increment
3 Ha Farm ($)
241 Y es 296 Person
2.2 al
55% 4 Months of Day Labor @ FCFA 1,500/Day 294 No 0 1.0 al
0%
Rural GDP Per Capita 248 Y es 289 2.2 54% Rural GDP Per Capita 248 Y es 46 1.2 16%
Subsistence 190 Y es 347 2.8 65% Subsistence 190 Y es 104 1.5 35%
Weighted Average 207 N/A 330 2.6 61% Weighted Average 211 N/A 83 1.4 28%
Notes: Notes:
-3 Ha Farm that serv es 12.8 people, f ull season of rice, of f season rice and market gardening consistent with-Av erage per capital annual rural expenditure per capita. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne d’Ev aluation de
current ON lev els using current ON y ields on shallots and rice la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.
-Av erage per capita annual rural expenditure per capita. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne d’Ev aluation de -2450 Calories per day monetized into FCFA 99,038 and conv erted into Dollars. According to DNSI this
la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI. is the expenditure necessary f or the minimum lev el of caloric intake. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne
-2450 Calories per day monetized into FCFA 99,038 and conv erted into Dollars. According to DNSI this d’Ev aluation de la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.
is the expenditure necessary f or the minimum lev el of caloric intake. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne
d’Ev aluation de la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.
Income Level Achieved By Project for 5 Ha Farm (Resettled Population)
Crops Implied Annual Profits of the Average 5 Ha Farm ($)
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5
RS Paddy 2,302 2,931 3,582 4,253 4,326
DS Wheat 0 0 0 0 0
RS Maize 319 368 405 442 467
DS Paddy 320 291 227 114 0
DS Maize 61 79 103 127 152
Shallots (DS) 807 1,276 1,787 2,342 3,070
Potato (DS) 323 358 315 196 0
Tomato (DS) 9 21 38 68 106
Niebe Forage (DS) 24 27 24 12 0
Farm Income 4,166 5,352 6,483 7,554 8,122
Land Pay ment 0 -750 -750 -750 -750
Laborer Income 0 0 0 0 0
Income After Land and Labor 4,166 4,602 5,733 6,804 7,372
People per Farm 12.8
Tot Inc/Person 326 360 448 532 576
Range of Potential Alternative Income Opportunties As
Compared to Implied S.S. Profits Level Per Person of $ 576
Alternati Alternativ Implied $ Implied % of
ve e Below Change in Relativ e Project
Alternativ e Scenarios Income Pov erty Income Change in Income
Per Line? Per Income that is
Person (Y /N) Person per Increment
3 Ha Farm ($)
241 Y es 335 Person
2.4 al
58%
Rural GDP Per Capita 248 Y es 328 2.3 57%
Subsistence 190 Y es 386 3.0 67%
Weighted Average 190 N/A 386 3.0 67%
Notes:
-3 Ha Farm that serv es 12.8 people, f ull season of rice, of f season rice and market gardening consistent with
current ON lev els using current ON y ields on shallots and rice
-Av erage per capita annual rural expenditure per capita. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne d’Ev aluation de
la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.
-2450 Calories per day monetized into FCFA 99,038 and conv erted into Dollars. According to DNSI this
is the expenditure necessary f or the minimum lev el of caloric intake. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne
d’Ev aluation de la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.
Income Level Achieved By Project for 10 Ha Farm
Implied Annual Profits of the Average 10 Ha Farm ($)
Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5
Rainy Season Paddy 4,604 5,863 7,163 8,506 8,652
Wheat (DS) 0 0 0 0 0
Maize RS 638 737 811 885 934
Dry Season Paddy 640 581 455 227 0
Maize DS 122 158 207 253 304
Shallots 1,614 2,551 3,575 4,685 6,141
Potato 647 716 631 392 0
Tomato/other v eg. 19 43 75 135 213
Niebe Hay (f orage) 49 55 48 24 0
Total Income 8,333 10,703 12,965 15,108 16,243
Land Pay ment 0 -2,500 -2,500 -2,500 -2,500
Laborer Income 0 0 0 0 0
Income After Land and Labor 8,333 8,203 10,465 12,608 13,743
People per Farm 25.6
Tot Inc/Person 326 320 409 492 537
Range of Potential Alternative Income Opportunties As
Compared to Implied S.S. Profits Level Per Person of $ 537
Alternati Alternativ Implied $ Implied % of
ve e Below Change in Relativ e Project
Alternativ e Scenarios Income Pov erty Income Change in Income
Per Line? Per Income that is
Person (Y /N) Person per Increment
3 Ha Farm ($)
241 Y es 296 Person
2.2 al
55%
Rural GDP Per Capita 248 Y es 289 2.2 54%
Subsistence 190 Y es 347 2.8 65%
Weighted Average 241 N/A 296 2.2 55%
Notes:
-3 Ha Farm that serv es 12.8 people, f ull season of rice, of f season rice and market gardening consistent with
current ON lev els using current ON y ields on shallots and rice
-Av erage per capita annual rural expenditure per capita. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne d’Ev aluation de
la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.
-2450 Calories per day monetized into FCFA 99,038 and conv erted into Dollars. According to DNSI this
is the expenditure necessary f or the minimum lev el of caloric intake. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne
d’Ev aluation de la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.
Income Level Achieved By Project for 30 Ha Farm
Implied Annual Profits of the Average 10 Ha Farm ($)
Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5
Rainy Season Paddy 13,811 17,588 21,490 25,517 25,955
Wheat (DS) 0 0 0 0 0
Maize RS 1,915 2,211 2,432 2,654 2,802
Dry Season Paddy 1,921 1,744 1,364 682 0
Maize DS 367 475 621 759 912
Shallots 4,843 7,653 10,724 14,054 18,422
Potato 1,940 2,147 1,893 1,177 0
Tomato/other v eg. 56 128 226 406 639
Niebe Hay (f orage) 146 164 145 73 0
Total Income 24,998 32,110 38,896 45,323 48,729
Land Pay ment 0 -7,500 -7,500 -7,500 -7,500
Laborer Income 900 932 964 996 1,028
Income After Land Payment 25,898 25,541 32,359 38,819 42,257
People per Farm 12.8
Tot Inc/Person 2,023 1,995 2,528 3,033 3,301
Range of Potential Alternative Income Opportunties As
` 3,301
Alternati Alternativ Implied $ Implied % of
ve e Below Change in Relativ e Project
Alternativ e Scenarios Income Pov erty Income Change in Income
Per Line? Per Income that is
Person (Y /N) Person per Increment
3 Ha Farm ($)
750 No 2551 Person
4.4 al
77%
Rural GDP Per Capita 750 No 2551 4.4 77%
Subsistence 750 No 2551 4.4 77%
Weighted Average 750 N/A 2551 4.4 77%
Notes:
-750 is three times Mali's av erage rural expenditure per capita
Income Level Achieved By Project for Larger Farms (Assumed to be 60 Ha)
Implied Annual Profits of the Average 60 Ha Farm ($)
Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5
RS Paddy 27,621 35,175 42,980 51,035 51,909
Banana 0 0 0 0 0
RS Maize 3,831 4,422 4,865 5,308 5,603
DS Paddy 3,842 3,488 2,729 1,364 0
DS Maize 734 951 1,242 1,519 1,824
Shallots 9,685 15,307 21,448 28,108 36,845
Potato 3,879 4,294 3,786 2,354 0
Tomato 112 256 452 813 1,277
Niebe 293 328 291 145 0
Total Income 49,997 64,220 77,791 90,646 97,458
Land Pay ment 0 -15,000 -15,000 -15,000 -15,000
Laborer Income 0 0 0 0 0
Income After Payments 49,997 49,220 62,791 75,646 82,458
People per Farm 1
Tot Inc/Person 49,997 64,220 77,791 90,646 97,458
Range of Potential Alternative Income Opportunties As
Compared to Implied S.S. Profits Level Per Person of $ 97,458
Alternati Alternativ Implied $ Implied % of
ve e Below Change in Relativ e Project
Alternativ e Scenarios Income Pov erty Income Change in Income
Per Line? Per Income that is
Person (Y /N) Person per Increment
3 Ha Farm ($)
5,000 No 92,458 Person
19.5 al
95%
Rural GDP Per Capita 5,000 No 92,458 19.5 95%
Subsistence 5,000 No 92,458 19.5 95%
Weighted Average 5,000 N/A 92,458 19.5 95%
Notes:
-$5,000 is a placeholder
Poverty Line ($) 277 Poverty Line to Use: 2 1: WB $1.08/Day (Not PPP adjusted), 2: 2004 Malian Pov erty Line of FCFA 144,022 Conv erted into $
Farmer Poverty Reduction Laborer Poverty Reduction
Alternativ
Percent Alternativ e
Number Of Which e Below Of Which
Percent Which Hectares Income Per Percent Number
of People Are Poor Pov erty Are Poor
Are Poor Person ($)
Line?
5 Ha Farms (Settled Population) Laborer Benef iciaries Coming f rom 4 (Y /N) 20% 2,381 0
18% 5,120 5,120 100% 2,000 294 No
Months of Day Labor Scenario
% Smaller Farm 33% 1,690 1,690 660 Laborer Benef iciaries Coming f rom Rural 0% 0 0
100% 248 Y es
Benef iciaries Coming GDP Per Capita Scenario
f rom 3 Ha Farm Scenario
% Small Farm 0% 0 0 0 Laborer Benef iciaries Coming f rom 80% 9,523 9,523
190 Y es
Benef iciaries Coming Subsistence Scenario
f rom Rural GDP Per
% Small Farm 67% 3,430 3,430 1,340
100%
Benef iciaries Coming Total 211 N/A 100% 11,903 9,523
f rom Subsistence
5 Ha Farms (Resettled 35% 10,240 10,240 100% 4,000
% Smaller Farm 0% 0 0 0
Benef iciaries Coming
f rom 3 Ha Farm Scenario
% Small Farm 0% 0 0 0
Benef iciaries Coming
f rom Rural GDP Per
% Small Farm 100% 10,240 10,240 4,000
100%
Benef iciaries Coming
Total 10 Ha Farms
f rom Subsistence 44% 12,800 12,800 100% 5,000
% Smaller Farm 100% 12,800 12,800 5,000
100%
Benef iciaries Coming
f rom 3 Ha Farm Scenario
% Small Farm 0% 0 0 0
Benef iciaries Coming
f rom Rural GDP Per
% Small Farm 0% 0 0 0
Benef iciaries Coming
f rom Subsistence
Total 30 Ha Farms 3% 896 0 0% 2,100
% Coming f rom 30 Ha 100% 896 0 0% 2,100
Scenario 0
0
Total Larger Farms 0% 48 0 0% 2,900
% Coming f rom 60 Ha 100% 48 0 0% 2,900
0
0
Total 100% 29,104 28,160 97% 16,000
Av erage Income of Poor Benef iciaries Prior to Program ($) 216 Av erage Income of Poor Benef iciaries Prior to Program ($) 190 Need Use Finan Prices
Av erage Income Af ter Program ($) 551 Av erage Income of Poor Benef iciaries Af ter Program ($) 294
Av erage Increase in Income Per Poor Farmer Benef iciary ($) 335 Av erage Increase in Income Per Laborer Benef iciary ($) 104
Av erage Increase in Income Per Farmer Benef iciary (%) 155% Av erage Increase in Income Per Poor Laborer Benef iciary (%) 55%
Number of Benef iciaries Below Pov erty Line Prior to Program 28,160 Number of Benef iciaries Below Pov erty Line Prior to Program 9,523
Number of Benef iciaries Below Pov erty Line Af ter Program 0 Number of Benef iciaries Below Pov erty Line Af ter Program 0
Number of Benef iciaries brought out of pov erty 28,160 Number of Benef iciaries brought out of pov erty 9,523
Av g. Distance Below Pov erty Line Among Benef iciaries who are Av g. Distance Below Pov erty Line Among Benef iciaries who are Poor Prior to the Program ($) 87
Poor Prior to Program ($) 61
Av g. Distance Below Pov erty Line Among Benef iciaries who were Av g. Distance Below Pov erty Line Among Laborer Benef iciaries who were Poor Post Program ($) 0
Poor Post Program ($) 0
Pov erty Gap Prior to the Program 22% Pov erty Gap Prior to the Program 31%
Pov erty Gap Af ter the Program 0% Pov erty Gap Af ter the Program 0% Need Use Finan Prices
This Sheet Does Not Include Road
Costs or Road Beneficiaries
0
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
Table of Equipment Investments Required for 10 Ha farm
Number Unit cost Total value
Cultivator 1 2,868,000 2,868,000
Cart 1 130,000 130,000
Oxen 1 50,000 50,000
TOTAL 3,048,000
Table of Equipment Financing Requirements
Interest Rate for Medium Term Loan 25%
Duration (years) 5
Percentage of Total Value Borrowed 90%
Amount Borrowed 2,743,200
Annual Installment Payment 1,020,050
Total Interest Paid 2,357,050
Average Annual Interest Paid 471,410
Average Annual Interest Paid Per Ha 47,141
Table of Input Financing Requirements
Percentage of Input Costs Financed 45.0%
Interest Rate for Seasonal Loan for Inputs 17.0%
Variable Cost Per Ha of Rice Production 317
Which Costs To Use 1 1: Direct Weighted Avg of the Costs used Farm Model Assump
Cash Flow of Farm that is representative of the Crop Mix in the Alatona
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3
Variable Cost of Production
Labor Costs
Water Costs
Input Costs
Input Financing
Equipment Costs
Down Payment on Equip
Financial Expenses
Depreciaton of Equipment
Maintenance of Animals
Maintenance of Equip
Total Costs (With No Land Fees) 2,078,651 2,118,439 2,158,226
Total Costs/Ha 415,730 423,688 431,645
Steady State Cost Per Ha 447,560 Input Costs as Percentage of Total Variabl
Average Cost Per Ha 443,581 Labor Costs as Percentage of Total Variab
Total Revenues 4,245,181 4,901,287 5,529,172
Total Revenues Per Ha 849,036 980,257 1,105,834
80% of Revenues (0=No, 1=Yes) 0
Net Margin 2,166,530 2,782,848 3,370,946
Net Margin Per Ha 433,306 556,570 674,189
Total Input Financing Requirements by
Cohort
Total Equipment Financing Requirements by
Cohort
Total Non-Land Financing Required by
Cohort (CFA)
Total Non-Land Financing ($)
Calculation of the Implied Value of the Land from this benefit stream
CFA $
Full Land Value Per 10 Ha Farm 79,554,411 152,989
Full Land Value Per Ha 15,910,882 30,598
Land Value is arrived at by calculating the price which would set return on the benefit stream associated with the net margin de
Scenario In Use: Base Case
Total Cost with full Land Value 81,633,062 2,271,428 2,158,226
Net Margin With Full Land Value -77,387,881 2,629,859 3,370,946
10 Year IRR With Full Land Value -12.9% Full Project Cost Per Ha ($)
15 Year IRR With Full Land Value -3.8% Cost Per Hectare of Land Prep ($)
20 Year IRR With Full Land Value 0.0% Cost Per Hectare of Land Prep (CFA)
Calculation of Farmer if they pay full cost recovery of the for Land Preparation (In CFA) Up Front (IRR)
CFA $
Land Preparation Costs 18,938,403 36,420
Land Preparation Costs Per Ha 3,787,681 7,284
Total Cost with Land Prep Costs 21,017,054 2,154,859 2,158,226
Net Margin With Land Prep Costs -16,771,873 2,746,428 3,370,946
10 Year IRR With Land Prep Costs 16.9%
15 Year IRR With Land Prep Costs 21.0%
20 Year IRR With Land Prep Costs 22.1%
Calculation of Farmer Cash Flow with Alternative Land Price, Mortgage Terms, and Interest rates
Years 20 (5,10, 15, or 20 Year Term)
Interest Rate 0%
First Year of Repayment 2 (Years 1 through 5)
Household Spending Requirements 4,013,568
Food Requirements/HH/Year ($) 7,718
Per Person ($) 603
Type of Farm 1 (1: Mix of Crops, 2: Only one main season of rice)
Land Payment 0 435,583 435,583
Land Payment Per Ha 0 87,117 87,117
Total Cost with Land Payment 2,078,651 2,554,022 2,593,809
Cash Flow with Land Payment 2,166,530 2,347,265 2,935,363
Cash Flow Per Hectare 433,306 469,453 587,073
Cash Flow Per Hectare ($) 833 903 1,129
Household Spending 7,718 7,718 7,718
Household Cash Flow -3,552 -3,204 -2,073
Land Financing Required (CFA) 0 20,200,710,276 0
Equip and Input Financing Required
Total Financing Required By Cohort
Total Financing By Cohort ($)
Source Data for Average 10 Ha Farm Revenues, Costs, and Margins
Farm Revenues (CFA '000)
Implied Annual Revenue of the Average 5 Ha Farm ('000)
Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3
RS Paddy 2,703 3,057 3,423
DS Wheat 0 0 0
RS Maize 243 269 288
DS Paddy 280 236 175
DS Maize 51 63 78
Shallots (DS) 563 878 1,215
Potato (DS) 360 330 260
Tomato (DS) 27 50 75
Niebe Forage (DS) 19 19 16
Total Revenues 4,245 4,901 5,529
Farm Costs (CFA '000)
Implied Annual Costs of the Average 5 Ha Farm ('000)
Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3
RS Paddy 1,506 1,533 1,560
DS Wheat 0 0 0
RS Maize 77 77 77
DS Paddy 114 85 57
DS Maize 19 22 24
Shallots (DS) 143 214 286
Potato (DS) 192 144 96
Tomato (DS) 22 39 55
Niebe Forage (DS) 6 5 3
Total Costs (CFA '000) 2,079 2,118 2,158
Total Costs (CFA) 2,078,651 2,118,439 2,158,226
Farm Profits (CFA '000)
Implied Profits of the Average 5 Ha Farm ('000)
Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3
RS Paddy 1,197 1,524 1,862
DS Wheat 0 0 0
RS Maize 166 192 211
DS Paddy 167 151 118
DS Maize 32 41 54
Shallots (DS) 420 663 929
Potato (DS) 168 186 164
Tomato (DS) 5 11 20
Niebe Forage (DS) 13 14 13
Total Profits 2,167 2,783 3,371
Residual value Duration Amortized Total
0 5 573,600 573,600
0 5 8,000 8,000
0 5 6,000 6,000
587,600
Ongoing Equipment Costs
Maintenance of Animals 2,500
Maintenance of Equipment 15,000
Depreciation of Equipment 0
Financial Expenses 102,005
Table of Water Fees Per Hectare
Main Season Water (Rice) 63,500
Off Season Water (Rice) 6,350
Vegetables 59,000
g of the Costs used Farm Model Assumption; 2: Costs built up by Components so that Estimates of input financing Can be calculated
Farm Size (Ha) 5 HH Size 12.8
Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10
2,198,013 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800
439,603 447,560 447,560 447,560 447,560 447,560 447,560
ut Costs as Percentage of Total Variable Costs (Yr 5)
or Costs as Percentage of Total Variable Costs (Yr 5)
6,126,007 6,461,000 6,461,000 6,461,000 6,461,000 6,461,000 6,461,000
1,225,201 1,292,200 1,292,200 1,292,200 1,292,200 1,292,200 1,292,200
3,927,994 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200
785,599 844,640 844,640 844,640 844,640 844,640 844,640
stream associated with the net margin developed above to 0% over a 20 year horizon with base case assumptions
2,198,013 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800
3,927,994 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200
Project Cost Per Ha ($) 10,624 For Net Irrigable Area Developed
t Per Hectare of Land Prep ($) 7,284 For Net Irrigable Area Developed
t Per Hectare of Land Prep (CFA) 3,787,681 For Net Irrigable Area Developed
In CFA) Up Front (IRR)
2,198,013 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800
3,927,994 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200
and Interest rates Scenario In Use: Base Case Price
$1,000
Percent of Land Preparation Costs to be Recovered 46% $2,500
Land Price per Hectare (CFA) 1,742,333 $4,000
Land Price per Hectare ($) 3,351 $5,500
$7,000
$7,200
$8,500
$10,000
Only one main season of rice)
435,583 435,583 435,583 435,583 435,583 435,583 435,583
87,117 87,117 87,117 87,117 87,117 87,117 87,117
2,633,596 2,673,383 2,673,383 2,673,383 2,673,383 2,673,383 2,673,383
3,492,411 3,787,617 3,787,617 3,787,617 3,787,617 3,787,617 3,787,617
698,482 757,523 757,523 757,523 757,523 757,523 757,523
1,343 1,457 1,457 1,457 1,457 1,457 1,457
7,718 7,718 7,718 7,718 7,718 7,718 7,718
-1,002 -435 -435 -435 -435 -435 -435
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
e of the Average 5 Ha Farm ('000)
Yr 4 Yr 5
3,799 3,864
0 0
307 320
88 0
92 108
1,575 2,025
150 0
107 144
8 0
6,126 6,461
of the Average 5 Ha Farm ('000)
Yr 4 Yr 5
1,587 1,615
0 0
77 77
28 0
27 29
357 428
48 0
72 89
2 0
2,198 2,238
2,198,013 2,237,800
he Average 5 Ha Farm ('000)
Yr 4 Yr 5
2,212 2,249
0 0
230 243
59 0
66 79
1,218 1,597
102 0
35 55
6 0
3,928 4,223
t financing Can be calculated
Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Yr 16 Yr 17 Yr 18
2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800
447,560 447,560 447,560 447,560 447,560 447,560 447,560 447,560
6,461,000 6,461,000 6,461,000 6,461,000 6,461,000 6,461,000 6,461,000 6,461,000
1,292,200 1,292,200 1,292,200 1,292,200 1,292,200 1,292,200 1,292,200 1,292,200
4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200
844,640 844,640 844,640 844,640 844,640 844,640 844,640 844,640
2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800
4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200
2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800 2,237,800
4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200 4,223,200
% Cost Recovery Implied
13.73%
34.32%
54.91%
75.51%
96.10%
98.85%
116.69%
137.29%
435,583 435,583 435,583 435,583 435,583 435,583 435,583 435,583
87,117 87,117 87,117 87,117 87,117 87,117 87,117 87,117
2,673,383 2,673,383 2,673,383 2,673,383 2,673,383 2,673,383 2,673,383 2,673,383
3,787,617 3,787,617 3,787,617 3,787,617 3,787,617 3,787,617 3,787,617 3,787,617
757,523 757,523 757,523 757,523 757,523 757,523 757,523 757,523
1,457 1,457 1,457 1,457 1,457 1,457 1,457 1,457
7,718 7,718 7,718 7,718 7,718 7,718 7,718 7,718
-435 -435 -435 -435 -435 -435 -435 -435
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Yr 19 Yr 20
2,237,800 2,237,800
447,560 447,560
6,461,000 6,461,000
1,292,200 1,292,200
4,223,200 4,223,200
844,640 844,640
2,237,800 2,237,800
4,223,200 4,223,200
2,237,800 2,237,800
4,223,200 4,223,200
435,583 435,583 435,583 0 0 0
87,117 87,117 87,117 0 0 0
2,673,383 2,673,383 435,583 0 175,754 0
3,787,617 3,787,617 -435,583 0 331,686 0
757,523 757,523 -87,117 0 66,337 0
1,457 1,457 -168 0 128 0
7,718 7,718 7,718 7,718 7,718 7,718
-435 -435
0 0
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
Production
0
Total Tons of Production by Crop
Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7
RS Paddy 20,592 43,885 64,477 78,314 84,460 87,823 88,319
Banana 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Maize RS 1,621 3,413 5,035 5,760 6,101 6,315 6,400
DS Paddy 2,133 3,933 6,067 3,800 2,000 667 0
Maize DS 340 759 1,099 1,554 1,855 2,056 2,160
Shallots 4,000 10,240 14,240 26,080 34,240 40,000 43,199 Rice Conversion Factor 65%
Potato 1,920 3,680 5,600 3,947 2,187 800 0 Annual Average Rice Consumption Per Capita 52
Tomato/other veg. 720 2,050 2,770 6,190 8,700 10,540 11,520 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Niebe Beans 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Alatona Paddy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 48 71 82 86 88 88
Niebe Hay(forage) 80 160 240 180 100 33 0 Alatona Rice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 31 46 53 56 58 57 Number of People's Consumption Satisfied 1,103,986
Total (Tons) 31,406 68,120 99,527 125,824 139,643 148,232 151,598 % of Paddy Imports 28.9%
Per Person Rice Consumption Needs (Tons) 0.39 Growth Rate in Rice Demand 3.50%
Beneficiaries (Farming HH + Laborers) 13,669 27,339 41,008 41,008 41,008 41,008 41,008 Actual Proj ected
Rice Needs 5,331 10,662 15,993 15,993 15,993 15,993 15,993 Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 CAGR 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR
Percent of Rice Production 23.5% 22.3% 22.7% 19.5% 18.5% 18.1% 18.1% Production (Mt) FAO 476 627 575 717 727 742 940 710 693 4.8% 1116 4.1%
Of Which is ON 210 232 245 267 309 319 350 400 420 9.1%
Alatona Production 71
Imports equivalent paddy FAO et Douanes 2002 2003 127 62 148 135 85 137 333 248 16.9% 306 1.8%
Consommation (paddy) 941 974 1008 1043 1080 1118 1157 1197 1239 1282 1327 1374 1422 3.5%
Total Tons of Production by Crop Consommation (rice) 612 633 655 678 702 726 752 778 805 834 863 893 924
Crops Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Percent of Consumption Imported 26.4% 21.5%
RS Paddy 13,458 29,616 43,074 56,911 63,058 66,420 66,916 Pg. 58 Agence Française de Développement (2005), La filière riz au Mali : compétitivité et perspectives de marché.
Banana 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Year ON Rice Production
(Tons)
ON Paddy Production % of National Production Additional Demand in Rice for 2010, 2015 2010: 239,444 tons of additional paddy required 2015: 458, 449 tons of additional paddy
Maize RS 1,621 3,413 5,035 5,760 6,101 6,315 6,400 1995 209678 ##### 44% Tableau 24
DS Paddy 1,428 2,522 3,950 1,683 -117 -1,450 -2,117 1996 232206 ##### 37%
Maize DS 340 759 1,099 1,554 1,855 2,056 2,160 1997 244563 ##### 43% A 2005 AFD study predicts that the growth rate in rice demand in Mali is 3.5%. Based on this simulation it is estimated that by 2015, Mali's annual consumption demand for rice will be 924,000 tons, an increase of the forcast demand of 246,000 in 2006. It is estimated that in 2015 the Alatona Zone will generate 99,000 tons of rice, or approximately 40% of the forecast increase in demand. Utilizing the average consumption per capita of rice in Mali of 52 Kg per person per year, the Alatona production equates to the rice consumption needs of 1.2 million people.
Shallots 4,000 10,240 14,240 26,080 34,240 40,000 43,199 1998 267186 ##### 37%
Potato 1,920 3,680 5,600 3,947 2,187 800 0 1999 308630 ##### 42%
Tomato/other veg. 720 2,050 2,770 6,190 8,700 10,540 11,520 2000 319300 ##### 43% Paddy Increase Required (2006 to 2015) 379 2015 Paddy Demand 1422
Niebe Beans 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2001 350000 ##### 37% Rice Increase Required (2006 to 2015) 246 2015 Rice Demand 924
Niebe Hay(forage) 80 160 240 180 100 33 0 2002 400000 ##### 56% Rice Increase Required (2006 to 2015) 246 2015 Rice Demand 924
Fish 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2003 420000 ##### 61% Alatona Percentage of Paddy Increase 23.3% Alatona % Paddy D 6.2%
Total (Tons) 23,567 52,441 76,008 102,305 116,123 124,713 128,079 Alatona Percentage of Rice Increase 23.3% Alatona % Rice D 6.2%
Rice was converted to paddy by dividing 0.68 which corresponds to the shelling rate. Source: AFD (2003) La filiere riz au Mali: compétitivité et perspectives de marche
Percent of Rice Production 23.5% 22.3% 22.7% 19.5% 18.5% 18.1% 18.1%
Alatona Generated Traffic Calculation
Tons Ratio % of AIP Traffic that is Thru Traffic for Niono-Diabaly 60%
Consultant's Assumed AIP Production 70,000 N/A % of AIP Traffic that is Thru Traffic for Diabaly-Goma Coura 30%
Consultant's Other Cargo (Inputs, etc) 30,000 0.4286
ADT for ADT for
Niono- Diabaly-
Diabaly Goma
Tons of Tons of After Coura
Year Truck Truck
Producti Other ADT Control After
Loads Trips
on Cargo For Control
Local for Local
Only Only
Traffic Traffic
Year 1 AIP Production 23,567 10,100 2,345 4,690 13 8 4 Tons Per Truck Load 12
Year 2 AIP Production 52,441 22,475 5,269 10,537 29 17 9
Year 3 AIP Production 76,008 32,575 7,613 15,225 42 25 13
Year 4 AIP Production 102,305 43,845 10,519 21,037 58 35 17
Year 5 AIP Production 116,123 49,767 12,034 24,068 66 40 20
Year 6 AIP Production 124,713 53,449 12,968 25,937 71 43 21
Year 7 AIP Production 128,079 54,891 13,315 26,629 73 44 22
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
0
Table 5-6: Irrigation Related Financial and Economic Prices and Farmer Costs
Prices and Farmer Costs – Financial and Economic
Financial Economic
Crops CFA/KG Costs/ha CFA/KG Costs/ha
Rainy season Paddy 120 367 140 351
Wheat 175 200 180 200
Maize RS 100 212 160 193
Dry Season Paddy 120 230 140 227
Maize DS 115 212 160 193
Shallots 150 952 150 952
Potato 200 2106 200 1919
Tomato/other veg. 40 629 40 591
Niebe Hay (forage) 250 97 250 97
Taken from Cost Benefit Analysis Page 5-20 in CDM Draft Pre-Feasibility Report
Models Notional Returns on Social Infrastructure
0
1 2 3
Costs Sub-Total
b. Social Infrastructure 15701 -2166 -3938 -3890
c. Health Sector Interventions 3061 -543 -846 -814
5. Social Infra From Remaining Credit 0
Total Costs 18762 -2709 -4784 -4703
Incremental Social Infrastructure Benefits 0 0 0
Incremental Social Infrastructure From Guarantee Fund 0 0 0
Total Benefits 0 0 0
Net Benefits -2709 -4784 -4703
Year (Amounts in $'000)
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-3030 -2677
-429 -429
-3459 -3106
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-3459 -3106 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Year (Amounts in $'000)
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22 23 24 25
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
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