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India | Media & Entertainment 27 May 2012
Quarterly Update/Target price change
Sun TV Network
Weak signal Rating : Accumulate
Weak results as topline remains under pressure Target Price : INR287
Upside : 14%
Sun TV Network reported below expectation quarterly performance
CMP : INR251 (as on 25 May 2012)
for Q4FY12, as topline declined by 7% YoY and standalone EPS de-
Global Markets Research
grew by 24% YoY. Both ad and subscription revenues posted decline Key data*
for the quarter, and while the management expressed optimism in Bloomberg /Reuters Code SUNTV IN/SUTV.BO
improving growth in its subscription revenues, it expected ad growth Current /Dil. Shares O/S (mn) 394/394
to remain modest for next few quarters, in view of pressure on ad Mkt Cap (INRbn/US$mn) 99/1,787
spend in the broadcasting space witnessed currently. For FY12, Sun TV Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 443,001
reported decline in revenues by 9% YoY, EBITDA margin of 79.7% and Face Value (INR) 5
earnings decline by 10%. However, the decline seems sharp largely 1 US$= INR55.4
due to very high base last year on release of Endhiran (INR230mn Source: Bloomberg ; * As on 25 May 2012
impact), and contraction in cable revenues from Tamil Nadu post Price &volume
formation of ARASU, the state owned cable network (INR470mn
450 50,000
impact). Excluding these, earnings declined by 1% YoY.
400 40,000
Subscription revenues to drive earnings growth in FY13E 350 30,000
FY12 saw weak growth in subscription revenues, as analog business 300 20,000
got impacted due to stand-off with ARASU while DTH revenues also 250 10,000
failed to sustain the momentum seen in FY11. However, we believe 200 0
that high growth in subscription revenues from cable post digitisation, May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12
especially during the first two phases and sharp improvement in Vol. in '000 (RHS) Sun TV (LHS)
international subscription revenues in FY13E would drive earnings Source: Bloomberg
growth going forward, despite modest ad growth assumptions. Share holding (%) Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12
Valuations – maintain Accumulate Promoter 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0
Institutional Investors 15.5 16.0 16.2 17.0
While Sun TV continues to face strong headwinds from ad growth Other Investors 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.6
side, we believe that being the key beneficiary of digitisation process in General Public 6.8 5.4 5.6 5.4
South Indian pay TV market, the company should manage to hold on Source: BSE
to its premium margins. We remain positive over the stock price Price performance (%) 3M 6M 12M
performance from current levels given strong earnings growth Sensex (9.5) 3.3 (9.1)
prospects post digitization and cheap valuations. Sun TV (21.2) (8.2) (35.2)
Zee Entertainment (4.4) 6.5 (8.3)
Source: Bloomberg
Y/E March (INR mn) Q4FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY11 QoQ (%) YoY(%) Q4FY12E Variance (%)
Net Sales 4,270 4,250 4,605 0.5 (7.3) 4,541 (6.0)
Operating Expenses 988 840 966 17.7 2.3 966 2.3
% of Sales 23.1 19.8 21.0 17.1 10.3 21.3 8.8
EBITDA 3,282 3,410 3,639 (3.8) (9.8) 3,575 (8.2)
EBITDA Margins (%) 76.9 80.2 79.0 (4.2) (2.7) 78.7 (2.4)
Other Income (Net) 151 232 172 (35.0) (12.3) 267 (43.5)
Interest 9 36 14 (74.0) (33.3) 1 623.1
Depreciation 1,068 1,125 678 (5.0) 57.5 1,125 (5.0)
PBT 2,355 2,482 3,118 (5.1) (24.5) 2,716 (13.3)
Tax 765 804 1,035 (4.9) (26.1) 907 (15.7)
Effective Tax Rate (%) 32.5 32.4 33.2 0.3 (2.4) 33.4 (2.8)
Reported PAT 1,590 1,678 2,083 (5.2) (23.7) 1,809 (12.1)
NPM (%) 37.2 39.5 45.2 (5.7) (12.7) 39.8 (6.5)
Adjusted PAT 1,590 1,678 2,083 (5.2) (23.7) 1,809 (12.1)
Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
Key Financials
Y/E Mar (INR mn) Rev YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj PAT YoY (%) Fully DEPS RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
FY10 14,528 19.5 10,909 75.1 5,199 12.7 13.2 33.0 59.0 19.0 8.5
FY11 20,135 38.6 15,779 78.4 7,698 48.1 19.5 37.7 52.2 12.8 5.9
FY12E 18,484 (8.2) 14,177 76.7 6,944 (9.8) 17.6 30.7 42.2 14.2 6.6
FY13E 20,915 13.2 16,020 76.6 7,545 8.7 19.1 31.3 44.6 13.1 5.8
FY14E 23,532 12.5 17,976 76.4 8,525 13.0 21.6 34.2 49.0 11.6 5.2
Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
Mohan Lal•mohan.lal@elaracapital.com • +91 22 4062 6802
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Sun TV Network
Consolidated Financials (Y/E Mar)
Income Statement (INR mn) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E Revenue & margins growth trend
Revenue 20,135 18,484 20,915 23,532
25,000 78.4 79
EBITDA 15,779 14,177 16,020 17,976
Non operating Income 487 781 671 672 78
20,000
OPBITDA 16,266 14,958 16,691 18,648
(INR mn)
76.7 76.6
(%)
Depreciation & Amortization 4,805 4,761 5,237 5,716 76.4 77
EBIT 11,461 10,198 11,454 12,932 15,000
76
Interest Expenses 23 56 1 1
PBT 11,439 10,142 11,453 12,930 10,000 75
Taxes 3,831 3,255 3,960 4,452 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
Reported PAT 7,608 6,887 7,493 8,479 Revenues (LHS) EBITDA Margin (RHS)
Net Minority Interest (90) (56) (52) (46)
Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimates
Adjusted PAT 7,698 6,944 7,545 8,525
Balance Sheet (INR mn) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
Share Capital 1,970 1,970 1,970 1,970
Adjusted profits growth trend
Reserves 19,972 21,383 22,934 22,934
Borrowings 1 1 1 1 9,000 48.1 60
Deferred Tax (Net) 339 339 339 339 50
Minority Interest 1,193 1,216 1,172 1,172 8,000 40
(INR mn)
30
Total Liabilities 23,476 24,909 26,416 26,416 13.0
(%)
7,000 8.7 20
Gross Block 23,512 28,413 33,763 39,542 10
Accumulated Depreciation 13,769 18,622 23,858 29,574 6,000 (9.8) 0
Net Block 9,742 9,791 9,905 9,968 (10)
5,000 (20)
Capital Work In Progress 3,149 3,149 3,149 3,149
Investments 2,280 2,280 2,280 2,280 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
Adjusted PAT (LHS) PAT Growth (RHS)
Other Non-Current Assets 300 300 300 300
Net Working Capital 8,005 9,389 10,783 10,720 Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimates
Miscellaneous Expenditure 1 1 1 1
Total Assets 23,476 24,909 26,416 26,416
Cash Flow Statement (INR mn) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E Return ratios
Cash profit adjusted for non cash items 12,412 11,648 12,730 14,195
60
Working Capital Changes (2,608) 715 (507) 3,717 52.2
49.0
Operating Cash Flow 9,804 12,363 12,223 17,912 50 44.6
Capex (4,630) (4,901) (5,350) (5,779) 42.2
37.7
Free Cash Flow 5,174 7,461 6,873 12,133 40 34.2
30.7 31.3
Financing Cash Flow (4,611) (5,533) (5,994) (5,994)
Investing Cash Flow - - - - 30
Net change in Cash 563 1,928 879 6,139
20
Ratio Analysis FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
Income Statement Ratios (%) ROE (%) ROCE (%)
Revenue Growth 38.6 (8.2) 13.2 12.5
EBITDA Growth 44.6 (10.1) 13.0 12.2 Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimates
PAT Growth 48.1 (9.8) 8.7 13.0
EBITDA Margin 78.4 76.7 76.6 76.4
Net Margin 38.2 37.6 36.1 36.2
Return & Liquidity Ratios
Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3)
ROE (%) 37.7 30.7 31.3 34.2
ROCE (%) 52.2 42.2 44.6 49.0
Per Share data & Valuation Ratios
Diluted EPS (INR/Share) 19.5 17.6 19.1 21.6
EPS Growth (%) 48.1 (9.8) 8.7 13.0
DPS (INR/Share) 7.5 10.0 12.0 13.0
P/E (x) 12.8 14.2 13.1 11.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.9 6.6 5.8 5.2
EV/Sales (x) 4.6 5.0 4.4 3.9
Price/Book (x) 5.2 4.5 4.2 4.0
Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 4.0 4.8 5.2
Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimates
2 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Sun TV Network
Growth remains under pressure Subscription revenues hampered by ARSU cable
Sun TV Network reported below expectation quarterly Subscription revenues for the quarter posted decline of
performance for Q4FY12, as topline declined by 7% YoY 15% YoY, on the back of 45% decline in cable revenues
and standalone EPS de-grew by 24% YoY. Both ad and and a modest 5% growth in DTH revenues. Cable
subscription revenues posted decline for the quarter, and revenues remained under pressure similar to the trend
while the management expressed optimism in improving seen in Q3FY12, while DTH revenue growth has visibly
growth in its subscription revenues, it expected ad tapered down since Q1FY12. For FY12, Sun TV’s
Media & Entertainment
growth to remain modest for next few quarters, in view subscription revenues are down15% YoY, with cable
of pressure on ad spend in the broadcasting space subscription revenues falling 24% and DTH revenues
witnessed currently. For FY12, Sun TV reported decline in growing by 15%.
revenues by 9% YoY, EBITDA margin of 79.7% and Exhibit 2: DTH revenue growth trend
earnings decline by 10%. However, as the management 23.5
880 25
pointed out, the decline seems sharp largely due to very 20.0
860 17.1
high base last year on release of Endhiran (INR230mn 20
840
12.9
(INR mn)
impact), and contraction in cable revenues from Tamil 820 15
(%)
Nadu post formation of ARASU, the state owned cable 800 10
4.9
network (INR470mn impact). Excluding these, earnings 780
5
declined by 1% YoY. 760
740 0
Ad revenue growth under pressure
Q2FY12
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Sun TV Network posted ad revenue de-growth for the
second time in FY12 (Q3FY12 saw 7% decline), reporting
DTH revenues (LHS) QoQ growth (RHS)
7% YoY decline. While the trend is in line with other
players in the industry, most of which saw pressure on Source: Company
ad revenues, the number is still below the company’s Cable revenues crash on formation of ARASU cable
general trend of reporting double digit growth even
Sun TV Networks reported 45% YoY slump in cable
during tough times of H2FY09-H1FY10.
subscription revenues (Q3FY12 too saw 45% decline),
As per the management, the key reason for lower than which till Q1FY12, were witnessing impressive growth.
expected ad revenue growth continues to be tough The drop in revenues was caused by formation of a new
macro environment which has led to weakness in ad MSO in Tamil Nadu i.e. ARASU cable, which is backed by
spend across all sectors. It also pointed out the start the government and has quickly affiliated significant
impact of Indian Premier League on the ratings of its key number of local cable operators in its network. Sun TV
programs during the quarter, along with recurring Network bouquet is not present on the ARASU cable
power cuts in some states impacting viewership. The platform, which led to cut in its cable revenues from
management was cautious over ad revenue growth for Tamil Nadu, causing a loss of INR470mn for FY12.
the next couple of quarters, citing weak ad spend
The management pointed out that the negotiations with
environment.
ARASU cable for inclusion of Sun TV Networks’ channels
Exhibit 1: Ad revenue growth takes a pause are on and would be concluded shortly (something they
16.0 have been maintaining for the last two quarters), post
2,700 20
13.3 which it would start receiving subscription revenues
2,600 15
4.1 10 from ARASU for the Tamil Nadu market. However, it
2,500
(INR mn)
2.2
5 lowered its guidance for subscription revenues, given
(%)
2,400
(6.5) 0 possibility of delay.
2,300 (8.9) (5)
2,200 (10)
2,100 (15)
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Ad revenues (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
Source: Company
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited 3
Sun TV Network
Exhibit 3: Sun TV Network Q3FY12 revenue break-up phase onwards, which should boost DTH revenue
YoY QoQ growth Q1FY14E onwards.
INR mn Q4FY12 Q4FY11 Q3FY12
growth growth
Advertising We believe that high growth in subscription revenues
2,800 2,950 (5.1) 2,850 (1.8)
revenue from cable post-digitisation and sharp improvement in
International
revenue
220 170 29.4 240 (8.3) international subscription revenues in FY13E, would
DTH revenues 860 820 4.9 840 2.4 drive earnings growth going forward, notwithstanding
Analog cable 310 560 (44.6) 290 6.9 modest ad growth assumptions.
Total revenues 4,270 4,605 (7.3) 4,250 0.5
Exhibit 4: Key Ratios (as % of net sales)
Source: Company
Q4 Q4 bps Q3 bps
Adjusted standalone EPS declined by 10% YoY FY12 FY11 change FY12 change
Sun TV Network managed to save on operating costs Cost of revenues 6.8 6.2 59.7 5.9 84.6
during the quarter, which supported rich margins Salary expenses 9.0 9.8 (84.9) 9.5 (48.3)
despite declining revenues. During the quarter, overall Other Expenditure 7.4 5.0 241.2 4.4 301.9
operating expenses grew by only 2% YoY, largely due to Depreciation 25.0 14.7 1,028.4 26.5 (144.5)
lower than expected staff costs (Sun TV’s promoters Margins
charge a certain % of profit before tax as their managing EBITDA margin 76.9 79.0 (216.1) 80.2 (338.2)
fee which varies during the quarters). However EBITDA EBIT margin 51.8 64.3 (1,244.5) 53.8 (193.7)
margin for the quarter came-in weak due to 38% rise in
PAT margin 37.2 45.2 (799.9) 39.5 (223.3)
other operating expenses, driven by INR100mn provision
Source: Company
for bad debts. Higher amortization expenditure during
the quarter, led to adjusted earnings declining by 10% Valuations – maintain Accumulate
YoY.
While Sun TV continues to face strong headwinds from
Subscription revenues to drive earnings growth in ad growth side, we believe that being the key
FY13E beneficiary of digitisation process in South Indian pay TV
FY12 saw de-growth in subscription revenues, as analog market, the company should manage to hold on to its
business got impacted due to stand-off with ARASU premium margins. That said, given concerns over the
while DTH revenues also failed to sustain the momentum likely deterioration of business environment over the
seen in FY11. Revenues from DTH are up a mdoest15% next two years would continue to weigh heavy on the
YoY (as against 58% growth seen in FY11) while stock price performance, as negative headwinds are
revenues from analog cable are down 24% YoY (as likely to persist for at least 2-3 quarters, and investors
against 36% growth in FY11). As per the management, have a comparable peer in Zee Entertainment to play the
decline in cable revenues is temporary as they are in digitisation story. We remain positive over the stock price
advance negotiations with ARASU, which when performance from current levels given strong earnings
resolved, will lead to compensation for the decline so far growth prospects post digitization and cheap valuations.
(INR470mn in FY12). Exhibit 5: Valuation summary
The management highlighted possibility of strong Valuation Overview FY11 FY12E FY13E
growth in cable subscription revenues once the first Consolidate EPS 19.5 17.6 19.1
phase of digitisation starts, though it expected some YoY growth 48.1 (9.8) 8.7
delays in implementation of mandatory digitization, from Target P/E 15.0
the official deadline of June 30th 2012. In the first phase,
FY13E consolidated EPS 19.1
South India, Sun TV’s key market, would be up for
One year forward target price 287
digitisation, with Chennai where the management
CMP 251
estimates close to 2 million pay TV households leading
the way. Further, it expects strong uptick in subscription Upside (%) 14.4
from south Indian homes in north India, which are not Source: Elara Securities Estimates
paying currently due to lack of reporting in the analog
networks. This combined with the possibility of a
contractual agreement with ARASU cable, should
reverse the decline in cable revenues seen in FY12E.
Further, there also exists strong possibility of pickup in
DTH revenues post-digitisation, especially from second
4 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Sun TV Network
Coverage History
600
2
500
1
400
6
Media & Entertainment
3 5
300
4
7
200
100
0
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Dec-08
Dec-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Aug-06
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
Aug-11
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Not Covered Covered
Date Rating Target Price Closing Price
1 30-Aug-2010 Buy INR563 INR471
2 28-Oct-2010 Accumulate INR563 INR497
3 26-May-2011 Buy INR475 INR381
4 2-Aug-2011 Buy INR435 INR305
5 4-Nov-2011 Buy INR348 INR286
6 10-Feb-2012 Accumulate INR382 INR340
7 25-May-2012 Accumulate INR287 INR251
Guide to Research Rating
BUY Absolute Return >+20%
ACCUMULATE Absolute Return +5% to +20%
REDUCE Absolute Return -5% to +5%
SELL Absolute Return < -5%
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited 5
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Disclosures & Confidentiality for non U.S. Investors
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The information contained in this note is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any
particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no
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No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the
particular situation.
6
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Disclosures for U.S. Investors
The research analyst did not receive compensation from Sun TV Network Limited.
Elara Capital Inc.’s affiliate did not manage an offering for Sun TV Network Limited.
Elara Capital Inc.’s affiliate did not receive compensation from Sun TV Network Limited in the last 12 months.
Elara Capital Inc.’s affiliate does not expect to receive compensation from Sun TV Network Limited in the next 3 months.
Global Markets Research
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7
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Mona Khetan, FRM Analyst Banking & Financials, Strategy mona.khetan@elaracapital.com +91 22 4062 6814
Pankaj Balani Analyst Derivative Strategist pankaj.balani@elaracapital.com +91 22 4062 6811
Parees Purohit, CFA Analyst Banking & Financials parees.purohit@elaracapital.com +91 22 4062 6859
Pralay Das Analyst Information Technology, Strategy pralay.das@elaracapital.com +91 22 4062 6808
Ravindra Deshpande, ACA, ACS, Analyst Metals & Cement ravindra.deshpande@elaracapital.com +91 22 4062 6805
Ravi Sodah Analyst Cement ravi.sodah@elaracapital.com +91 22 4062 6817
Sumant Kumar Analyst Travel & Hospitality, Mid caps sumant.kumar@elaracapital.com +91 22 4062 6803
Surajit Pal Analyst Pharmaceuticals, Real Estate surajit.pal@elaracapital.com +91 22 4062 6810
Pooja Sharma Associate Automobiles pooja.sharma@elaracapital.com +91 22 4062 6819
Stuart Murray Associate Oil & Gas stuart.murray@elaracapital.com +91 22 4062 6898
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