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					    S&P CNX NIFTY- Weekly Technicals                                                                                March 10, 2012

Current Observation:

 • Last week witnessed a sharp minor bottom reversal of Nifty from the low of 5171 in 07th March 2012 (Exactly one day extended to
   time window of 6th March and from near to the support at 5180).
 • Nifty has opened gap up of around 50 points and maintained its upward trend throughout of the whole previous session (9th
   March-12).
 • Daily momentum oscillator like RSI has turned up from its key lower levels of 40. The negative swing indicator (-DMI) is sloping
   down and maintaining its strength (dominance).
 • Nifty is now heading towards the next hurdle of mid bollinger band in daily timeframe, which is currently placed at 5405 levels.
 • Weekly timeframe is displaying that Nifty has reached the key support levels of 5200-5180 (major down trend line (blue), 100week
   EMA (pink) and valuation support (green)-weekly chart).
 • Formation of long legged Doji type candle of last week is signaling emergence of buying interest from the lower levels of supports
   during the latter part of the week.
 • Weekly momentum oscillators like RSI is weakening after hitting the important upper levels of 60 and weekly stochastic has
   continued with its bearish indication of negative crossover from near its overbought region of 80 levels (%K line crossing below
   %D line from above).
 • Monthly mid bollinger band is placed at 5450 levels, from where we have seen the Nifty reversed in the previous month.
 • Historical Time pattern study is suggesting that the next time cluster is scheduled at March-12-13 (+/-1 or 2 days to be taken) to
   form minor topping action in Nifty.




Conclusion:

 • In the last 12-15 months, we have broadly seen sideways consolidation patterns more often with negative bias, than more number
   of trending occasions.
 • Even though the Nifty has bounced back strongly from the crucial support cluster of 5200-5180 levels as per daily as well weekly
   timeframe, holding at higher level is not likely.
 • Daily momentum oscillator (RSI) is likely to hold the key 40 levels for some time (this could lead Nifty to sustain at the supports).
   Swing indicator (-DMI) is indicating that after sloping down for some time, negative DMI line is likely to strengthen further. This
   hints negative swing of Nifty still has some strength.
 • Further up move from here would likely to falter around the hurdle of daily mid bollinger band at 5405 (and later monthly mid
   bollinger band at 5,450) and the opening upward gap, which was formed on March 09, is likely to be filled in near term.
 • Weekly momentum oscillators like RSI and Stochastic are hinting that negative momentum is still intact in Nifty as per larger
   timeframe.
 • The study of various historical time patterns and timing models (Price & Time study) is suggesting that the next time periods of
   March-12-13 (+/-1 or 2 days to be taken) could witness as a minor topping action in Nifty around 5400 –5450 levels.
 • Nifty could continue to be bearish over the medium term and a downside target of 5050 over the next few weeks is achievable.



 Retail Research                                                                                                                   1
Summing Up:

 • The pullback rally that has started from the last couple of sessions is likely to end around 5400 – 5450 levels in the next time
   period of March-12-13.
 • The upward opening gap of Friday’s session (at 5243-5291) could be filled next week.




                                                 Analyst: Nagaraj Shetti (nagaraj.shetti@hdfcsec.com)


                                     HDFC Securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building ‘B’, “Alpha”, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station,
                                Opposite Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai – 400042, Fax: (022) 30753435
 Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by HDFC Securities Limited and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This
 document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy
 any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not
 be relied upon as such. We may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to
 time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this document. This report is intended for Retail
 Clients only and not for any other category of clients, including, but not limited to, Institutional Clients


 Retail Research                                                                                                                                     2

				
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