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axisdirect-dmn 12-03

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					MORNING NOTE                                                                                                                        12 March 2012

Indian Indice s                                                            Investment Ideas for the week
Index                     Curre nt Value         1D%            YTD %
                                                                                                      Mca p                Target    Potential Upside
Sensex                         17503              2.09           13.25      Scrip                                 CMP                                   Reco
                                                                                                    (Rs Crore)             Price           (%)
Nifty                           5334              2.17           15.34
                                                                            STRIDES ARCOLAB           3,188       547       669            22.3         Buy
BSE - Mid Cap                   6330              2.16           23.27      TATA MOTOR DVR           79,221       147       184            25.2         Buy
BSE - Sml Cap                   6749              1.35           21.60
SGX Nifty Fut                   5403              0.57           16.79
                                                                           Market Commentary

S ectors –Pe rformance                                                     The markets opened on a positive note and traded sideways for most of
Auto                           10019              2.22           23.03     the session before moving up further in the late session and ending the
Bankex                         12087              3.66           32.04     day on a positive note. In the Sectoral Indices Metals, Capital Goods and
Capital Goods                  10189              3.75           26.29     Bankex gained the most while FMCG was the lone marginal Loser. Among
Con. Durables                   6633              2.92           25.52     the Sensex stocks Jindal Steel (6.83%), Tata Steel (6.74%) and ICICI Bank
FMCG                            4165              (0.12)         3.20
                                                                           (6.22%) were the major gainers while Wipro (1.63%), ITC (0.74%), and
Healthcare                      6444              1.39           9.78
                                                                           Infosys (0.69%) were among the major losers. The Sensex gained 358
IT                              6132              0.03           6.61
                                                                           points or 2.09% to close at 17,503 and the Nifty gained 113 points or
Metal                          11500              4.69           23.74
                                                                           2.17% to close at 5,334.
Oil & Gas                       8335              1.52           10.71
PSU                             7590              2.14           19.24
                                                                           The traded turnover stood at Rs 1,09,174 cr. In equities FIIs were net buyers
Power                           2217              1.79           23.45
                                                                           to the extent of (Rs 1,285 cr) while DIIs were net sellers of (Rs 13cr) . On the
Realty                          1826              2.73           32.75
                                                                           derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index Futures (Rs 491 cr), Index
Teck                            3599              0.51           6.47
                                                                           Options (Rs 156 cr) and Stock Futures (Rs 39 cr) and Stock Options (Rs 118
IPO                             1528              1.62           17.51
                                                                           cr).

Global Indices                                                             European stocks climbed for a third day as a report showed the U.S.
Index                     Curre nt Value         1D%            YTD %
                                                                           economy added more jobs than predicted and Greece's private creditors
Dow Jones                      12922              0.11           5.77
                                                                           agreed to a debt swap.
Dow Futures                    12908              (0.18)         6.24
Nasdaq                          2988              0.60           14.71     The US markets ended positive as Greece moved closer to completing its
DAX                             6880              0.67           16.65
                                                                           debt swap. The Dow Jones gained 14 points or 0.11% to close at 12,922
Nikkei 225                      9966              0.36           17.86
                                                                           and the NASDAQ gained 18 points or 0.60% to close at 2,988.
FTSE 100                        5887              0.47           5.66
Hang Seng                      21031              (0.26)         14.09     The Asian markets are trading mixed. Nikkei is trading higher by 0.36%
Shanghai A Sha                  2434              (0.24)         10.65
                                                                           and Hang Seng is currently trading lower by 0.26%.
Bovespa                        66704              (0.31)         17.53
Strait Times                    2966              0.09           12.08     Fears of slowdown in the Chinese economy and waning hopes of further
                                                                           easing in the US on the back of strong jobs data led to a marginal
FII Trading activities in Cash                                             correction in the Asian markets. Indian markets are also expected to open
FII trading activity on NSE & BSE in Capital Marke t Segment (Rs.Cr)
                                                                           on a flattish note with positives coming in from a CRR cut of 75 bps
Category        Da te      Buy V alue        Sell Value        Net Value
FII             09-Mar       4040              2755              1285      announced by the RBI post markets hours on Friday.
DII             09-Mar       1107              1120               (13)



Source: NSE, Bloomberg; As on 8.30 am IST
                                                                                    1
FII Trading activities in F&O                                                Corporate News
FII Derivatives Statistics for 09/03    Buy (cr)   Sell (cr)   OI EOD (cr)
Index Futures                            2258        1767        13954
                                                                             l   Apollo Tyres plans to invest ~400 mn euro (~Rs 2,500 cr) to set up 2
Index Options                            13374      13218        46287
                                                                                 new facilities in East Europe and Brazil in the next 3-4 years as it aims
Stock Futures                            1527        1488        29010
Stock Options                             573        455          1670           to expand its global footprint.


Market volatility                                                            l   ABG Infralogistics step down subsidiary, ABG-LDA Bulk Handling
                                       Latest      Avg MTD     Avg YTD           Private Limited in consortium with IL & FS Maritime Infrastructure Co.
CBOE VIX                                   19       (13.21)      (31.35)
                                                                                 has been issued a Letter of Award by the Visakhapatnam Port Trust for
NSE VIX                                    25        6.88        (6.05)
                                                                                 the installation of Mechanised Fertiliser Handling Facilities at EQ 7

Fixed Income and Forex Rates                                                     berth in inner harbour on (DBFOT) Basis at a revenue share of
Interbanks Rates                         Latest    BPS 1D       BPS YTD          21.25%.
MIBOR                                    7.74       (13.09)      (13.74)
2 Y GSec India                           8.04        0.01        (0.84)
                                                                             l   Mold-Tek Packaging has received orders from Castrol India for pails of
10 Y GSec India                          8.29        0.56        (3.25)
10 Y GSec US 10                          2.02       (0.43)        7.62           71/2,10,15 and 20 litres sizes with Robotic In Mold decoration (IML).
10 Y GSec UK 10                          2.15        0.37         8.95           These IML pail order would be around Rs. 15 cr per annum.
10 Y GSec Japan 10                       0.98       (1.01)       (0.71)
LIBOR - 1 Month                          0.24        0.00        (18.13)
                                                                             l   Essar Oil Limited (EOL) has inked an agreement with Indraprastha Gas
LIBOR - 3 Month                          0.47        0.00        (18.49)
LIBOR - 6 Month                          0.74        0.00        (7.95)          Limited (IGL) to put up the latter's CNG pumping facilities at EOL
LIBOR - 1 Year                             1         0.00        (6.44)
                                                                                 outlets in the NCR (National Capital Region).


                                                                             l   Tata Power has commissioned the first unit of Mundra ultra mega
Rates                                    Latest    BPS 1D       BPS YTD
INR/USD                                  49.86       0.87         6.44           power project (UMPP), heralding the use of 800 MW super critical
INR/EUR                                  65.91       0.17         4.30
                                                                                 boiler technology in the country.
INR/GBP                                  78.65       0.93         4.81
INR/YEN (100)                              61       (0.51)       13.79
INR/SGD                                  39.82       0.17         2.79
USD/EUR                                  1.31       (0.23)        1.02
USD/GBP                                  1.57       (0.03)        0.81
USD/GBY                                  82.14       0.39        (6.37)
USD/AUD                                  0.95        0.45        (3.04)
USD/SGD                                  1.26       (0.45)        2.90




Source: NSE,RBI,Bloomberg
                                                                                   2
Commoditie s                                                             Indian News
Pa rticular                          Curre nt     % Change     % YTD
Gold (US $/t oz)                       1708          (0.32)     9.24     l   The Reserve Bank of India cuts the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of
Silver (US $/t oz)                      34           (0.67)    22.33         Scheduled Banks by 75 bps from 5.5% to 4.75% of their net demand
Oil (Brent-US$/bbl)                    125           (0.48)    17.62
                                                                             and time liabilities (NDTL) in anticipation with the liquidity deficit
Oil (Nymex-US $/bbl)                   107            0.77      8.67
Baltic Dry Index                       824            1.48     (52.59)       which may increase significantly due to advance tax outflows during
Dollar Index                            80            0.01     (0.16)
                                                                             second week of March. This reduction will inject Rs ~480 bn of
                                                                             primary liquidity into the banking system.
M eta ls
Aluminium (US $ /MT)                   2198           1.63     10.18
Copper (US $ /MT)                      8502           2.05     12.02
Lead (US $ /MT)                        2094          (0.12)     4.10     Global Economy
Nickel (US $ /MT)                     19216           2.72      2.63
Tin (US $ /MT)                        23190           2.07     21.11
                                                                         l   The US trade deficit widened by 4.3% in January to $52.6 bn, the
Zinc (US $ /MT)                        2054           1.14     12.42
Steel Billetes (US $/MT)               500           (0.94)    (7.07)        largest gap since October 2008. The trade deficit was above the
Steel HRC (US $/s.ton)                 630            0.00      9.09         consensus forecast of a deficit of $49.0 bn. Imports rose faster than
Iron Ore (US $ /MT)                    135           (0.43)    (1.16)
                                                                             exports in January. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to
                                                                             $26.0 bn in compared with $23.3 bn in the same month last year
Soda Ash (75Kg)                        1000             -       2.56
                                                                             .Trade deficit for the month of December has revised to $50.4 bn
Rubber (Rs/Kg)                         190            0.35     (3.86)
Sugar (Rs/Qtl)                         2890           0.00     (1.20)        from $48.8 bn. This could trim estimates of fourth-quarter gross
Tea (BP1) (US $/Kg)                    3.38           0.00     17.19
                                                                             domestic product, now estimated to have grown at a 3.0% annual
Urea (US $/MT)                         520            0.00     35.06
                                                                             pace.
DAP (US $/MT)                          517            0.00     (14.17)
Newsprint (US/MT)                      664            0.00     (0.08)
                                                                         l   Chinese monthly trade gap fell for the first time in least 12 years due
                                                                             partly to seasonal distortions but also to faltering demand for the
                                                                             country's exports. The trade surplus swung into a trade deficit of
                                                                             $31.48 bn in February after reporting a $27.28 bn surplus in January
                                                                             higher than for a expectation of a trade defict of $8.5bn Exports rose
                                                                             18.4% in February from a year earlier, having fallen 0.5% in January
                                                                             as against the expectation of 28.8% in February. Imports rose 39.6%
                                                                             from a year earlier, compared to a 15.3% decline in January.




Source: Bloomberg,Reuters,Enam Direct,* - As on 8.30 am IST,
                                                                               3
   TREND EXPECTED                                                       NIFTY OUTLOOK                                                  4919
                                                                                                                                       5333
   Weekly
                                                                     In the previous week, the index fell sharply in first half by around 210 points
   Monthly
                                                                     from the high of 5382. However Friday's strong gain of 2.17% recouped most
                                                                     of the earlier losses. This led index to close on a flat note with marginal loss of
   NIFTY LEVELS
                                                                     half a percent on a weekly basis.
   Spot Price                                              5,333
   Support                                             5290-5170     On the daily chart, the past three weeks corrective move halted around Nifty's
   Resistance                                          5460-5600     200 day SMA of 5163. This resulted in a strong bounce back of 170 points in
                                                                     last two trading sessions. This price action has formed a Hammer like bullish
   MOVING AVER AGES                                                  reversal formation on the weekly chart. Further it has also found support from
                                                                                                                          SENSEX
   Nifty 20 SDMA                                           5,400     the upper end of the downward sloping Channel placed around 5150 levels. In
   Nifty 50 SDMA                                           5,163     the coming week, a sustainable move and close above the Hammer's head of
                                                                     5383 would lead to further upsides towards 5460-5550 levels. From the
   Nifty 200 SDMA                                          5,163
                                                                     current levels major support remains at 50 and 200 day SMA (5163). However
                                                                     Friday's gap up area formed in the range of 5243-5292 would act as an
   TECHNICAL INDICATORS/OSCILLATORS
                                                                     immediate support area. The intermediate and long term trend remains up. For
   RSI                                                    Positive
                                                                     the week we expect index to trade with positive bias in the range of 5250-
   MACD                                                   Positive   5600 levels. Short term traders and investors are advised to remain on the long
   Stochastic                                            Negative    side.

                                                                     The daily strength indicator RSI has given a positive crossover at 50 levels
         BULLISH              - Clear uptrend seen.                  indicating rising strength. This is also confirmed by the Stochastic, which also
         MODERATELY BULLISH   - Some Strenth seen.                   gave a positive crossover from the oversold zone. The weekly RSI is placed
         NEUTRAL              - No Clear trend Seen.                 above its reference line and quoting above the 50 mark indicating sustained
         BEARISH              - Clear Downtrend seen.
                                                                     strength on the short term chart.
         MODERATELY BEARISH   - Some Weakness seen.




Source: ENAM Direct
                                                                                4
   NIFTY OUTLOOK                                                            4919
    CALL TRACKER
Issue Da te     Buy / S ell   Stock              Call Type    Reco P rice   Stop Loss       Target 1   LTP (Close Rate)   Diff %   Status   Remarks
  27-02-2012      Sell        M&M                 Intraday     713.50        724.00          692.00         709.00         0.63    Closed    Book profit
  27-02-2012      Sell        Cairn (Future)     Positional    381.00        386.00          367.00         367.00         3.67    Closed    Book profit
  27-02-2012      Buy         LT                  Intraday     1298.00      1286.00         1320.00        1312.50         1.12    Closed    Book profit
  27-02-2012      Buy         Nifty               Intraday     5387.50      5370.00         5425.00        5370.00        (0.32)   Closed    Stop Loss Trigg
  27-02-2012      Sell        Mcloed (Future)    Positional    219.00        222.00          211.00         222.00        (1.37)   Closed    Stop Loss Trigg
  27-02-2012      Buy         Idea                  BTST        93.00         92.00           96.00          95.00         2.15    Closed    Book profit
  28-02-2012      Sell        Uniphos             Intraday     144.50        146.50          140.00         146.00        (1.04)   Closed   Closed @ 146
  28-02-2012      Buy         Havells             Intraday     507.50        503.00          519.00         519.00         2.27    Closed   Book profit
  28-02-2012      Buy         Orchid              Intraday     SENSEX
                                                               182.00        179.00          188.00         188.00         3.30    Closed   Book profit
  28-02-2012      Buy         Bharti Airtel       Intraday     342.50        340.00          351.00         343.00         0.15    Closed   Closed @ 343
  28-02-2012      Buy         Bajaj Auto          Intraday     1740.00      1720.00         1780.00        1741.00         0.06    Closed   Closed @ 1741
  28-02-2012          Sell    OFSS                Intraday     SENSEX
                                                                    2535.00
                                                              2507.50                       2455.00        2535.00        (1.10)   Closed   Stop Loss Trigg
  28-02-2012          Buy     Hind Petro            BTST      298.00         295.00         306.00          306.00         2.68    Closed   Technical Call
  28-02-2012          Buy     Mphasis               BTST      418.50         415.00         431.00          431.00         2.99    Closed   Book profit
  29-02-2012          Buy     Maruti             Positional   1277.50       1258.00         1325.00        1258.00        (1.53)   Closed   Stop Loss Trigg
  29-02-2012          Buy     INFY               Positional   2885.00       2850.00         2995.00        2850.00        (1.21)   Closed   Stop Loss Trigg
  29-02-2012          Buy     Wipro               Intraday    427.00         424.00         434.00          424.50        (0.59)   Closed   Closed @ 424.5
  29-02-2012          Buy     Reliance            Intraday    819.00         813.00         832.00          813.00        (0.73)   Closed   Stop Loss Trigg
  29-02-2012          Buy     LT                 Positional   1335.00       1308.00         1394.00        1308.00        (2.02)   Closed   Stop Loss Trigg
  29-02-2012          Buy     Strtech            Positional    41.10          38.00          47.00           43.15         4.99    Open     Part Profit Booked @ 44.8
  01-03-2012          Buy     Rcom               Positional    94.50          91.00         105.00           93.70        (0.85)   Closed   Closed @ 93.7
  01-03-2012          Buy     Tata Motors         Intraday    272.50         270.00         278.00          270.00        (0.92)   Closed   Stop Loss Trigg
  01-03-2012          Buy     Voltas              Intraday    110.50         108.00         117.00          114.00         3.17    Closed   Book profit
  01-03-2012          Buy     Abirla Nuvo         Intraday    885.50         876.00         906.00          880.00        (0.62)   Closed   Closed @ 880
  01-03-2012          Buy     Titan               Intraday    227.50         225.00         235.00          228.00         0.22    Closed   Closed @ 228
  01-03-2012          Buy     Hindalco              BTST      151.45         150.00         154.00          150.00        (0.96)   Closed   Stop Loss Trigg
  01-03-2012          Buy     Cairn                 BTST      376.00         372.00         384.00          380.50         1.20    Closed   Book profit
  02-03-2012          Buy     Voltas              Intraday    115.50         113.00         123.00          116.00         0.43    Closed   Closed @ 116
  02-03-2012          Buy     VIP                   BTST      108.50         107.00         113.00          108.85         0.32    Open     Technical Call
  02-03-2012          Buy     Educomp             Intraday    213.50         211.00         218.50          211.60        (0.89)   Closed   Closed @ 211.6
  02-03-2012          Buy     LT                  Intraday    1291.00       1280.00         1319.00        1319.00         2.17    Closed   Book profit
  02-03-2012          Buy     Ranbaxy (Future)   Positional   427.35         420.00         442.00          427.00        (0.08)   Open     Technical Call
  02-03-2012          Buy     Arvind              Intraday     88.30          87.50          92.00           88.20        (0.11)   Closed   Closed @ 88.2
  02-03-2012          Buy     Lupin              Positional   506.60         492.00         535.00          492.00        (2.88)   Closed   Stop Loss Trigg
  02-03-2012          Buy     Havells             Intraday    541.00         536.00         554.00          536.00        (0.92)   Closed   Stop Loss Trigg
  02-03-2012          Buy     ICICI Bk              BTST      902.50         895.00         920.00          903.00         0.06    Open     Technical Call
  03-03-2012          Buy     Jindal Steel        Intraday    591.00         587.00         600.00          591.00         0.00    Closed   Closed @ 591
  03-03-2012          Buy     Engineers Ind       Intraday    275.50         273.50         282.00          273.50        (0.73)   Closed   Stop Loss Trigg




Source: ENAM Direct
                                                                                        5
    NIFTY OUTLOOK                            4919
    CALL TRACKER & STRIKE RATE FOR THE WEEK ENDED 09 March 2012
Category                                      M onth     Status           Diff %          Strike Rate     No. of calls
Technical                                     March      Closed            7.5                59%             19
                                                         Open              -2.6              57%               3
Technical Total                                                            4.9               59%               22




     MONTHLY CALL TRACKER & STRIKE RATE

Category                          Month         Status   Aggregate Returns %       Strike Rate          No. of Calls
Technical                           July        Closed            39.9               50%                    174
                                  August        Closed            88.1               49%                    258
                                 September      Closed            81.2               49%                    231
                                  October       Closed            62.2               49%                    130
                                 November       Closed             77.4              50%                    152
                                 December       Closed             45.2              50%                    107
                                  January       Closed            157.6              60%                    147
                                  February      Closed             96.7              53%                    131
                                                Open               3.8               57%                    1
                                  March         Closed             1.9               42%                    37
                                                 Open              -2.6              29%                    3
Technical Total                                                   651.4                                    1371




Source: ENAM Direct
                                                  6
Investment Picks
C ompany                Targ et Pri ce   CMP    Targ et Pr ice/ C MP (%)
Adani Port                   177         135             31%
Aditya Birla Nuvo            1435        904             59%
Astral Poly                  216         187             16%
Balkrishna Industries        278         242             15%
Bank of Baroda               1015        813             25%
Bharti Airtel                467         339             38%
Biocon                       359         268             34%
Coal India                   434         335             30%
Divi's Lab                   934         745             25%
Dr Reddys Lab                1920        1699            13%
Elgi Equipments               91          74             23%
Glenmark Pharma              373         303             23%
Godrej Consumer              550         449             22%
Grasim Inds                  3591        2714            32%
Hindustan Zinc               167         132             27%
HSIL                         195         141             38%
ICICI Bank                   1166        915             27%
ING Vysya                    440         329             34%
Jain Irrigation              145         104             40%
Jaiprakash Power Ven          66          42             58%
Jubilant Life                256         180             42%
Monnet Ispat                 603         460             31%
Motherson Sumi               225         181             24%
NMDC                         239         184             30%
Orient Paper                  87          56             55%
Oriental Bank                390         287             36%
Piramal Glass                163         108             51%
PNB                          1232        956             29%
Power Finance                234         193             21%
Power Grid                   135         110             23%
Prestige Estates             146         102             43%
Reliance Inds                945         774             22%
Sesa Sterlite                277         201             38%
Tube Invst                   189         139             36%




Source: ENAM Direct
                         7
Ec onomic events for the day
C ount ry                        Ev en t                                                   Local/GMT           Expect ed                   Pr ev ious
IN                               Industrial Production YoY% - Jan                            11.00 AM            2.1%                        1.8%

EU                               French CPI (MoM)                                            1.00 PM             0.4%                        -0.4%

US                               Federal Budget Balance                                             -         $-229.3 bn                   $-27.4bn


BSE Movers and Shakers
Top Gainers                    Lates t                    % 1D                % YTD       Top Los ers            Lates t          % 1D              % YT D

ICICI Bank                      915                       6.22                 33.61      Infosys                2860             (0.69)             3.43
HDFC                            679                       3.98                 4.59       ITC                     208             (0.74)             3.48
L &T                           1302                       5.27                 30.85      Adani Ports             135             (6.43)             12.32
State Bank Ind                 2222                       3.79                 37.22      Wipro                   432             (1.63)             8.36
Reliance Inds                   774                           1.6              11.65      Hind Unilever           382             (0.59)             (6.31)


Insight from trading volumes

Scr ip                                   % Chg i n Qt y Tr ad ed (OverA vg 30d ay s)   Qty Trad ed (‘00 0s)   D el ivery %                  CMP*
M&M Financial                                                  440                              1010              100                         708
Indian Bank                                                    266                              2506               97                         239
India Infoline                                                 172                              2908               97                         73
CESC                                                           163                                985              55                         291
Financial Tech                                                 139                              1917               14                         812
HCL Tech                                                       123                              1821               59                         507
Aditya Birla Nuvo                                               90                                274              66                         904



Insight from delivery
                                                                                                              3 0 days avg
Scr ip                                                   Deliv er y %                  Tot al Vo lume “ 000                                 CMP*
                                                                                                              D el ivery %
Rel. Comm.                                                      71                              34858              21                         95
M & M Financial                                                 99                              1128               56                         708
India Infoline                                                  88                              3434               49                         73

LIC Housing Fin                                                 82                              7388               46                         246
MRPL                                                            64                                760              37                         69

*CMP- Closing Market P ric e


Insight from bulk deals
Ent ity’s Name                                Sc rip                      Deal Type       Qty Trans “000        % of Share Capital                 CMP*
Bank Muscat India Fund                        Lakshmi Energy                  B                     1000                   1.58                      18
The Indiaman Fund                             South.Bio Tech.                 B                     971                    2.8                       6
ICICI Emerging Sectors Fund                   MCX                             S                     800                    1.57                     1297
Taib Sec                                      Lakshmi Energy                  S                     1000                   1.58                      18
J P Morgan                                    MCX                             B                     423                    0.83                     1297
Vardhman Investment                           Gujarat Foils                   S                      50                    0.61                      45




                                                                                  8
   RETAIL RESEARCH TEAM




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requirements for all investors. ASSL and its group companies, affiliates, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long
or short positions in, and deal (buy and/or sell the securities) thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other
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others are cautioned and should be alert that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change
without providing any notice. Past performance should not be considered as a reference to future performance..The disclosures of
interest statements if any included in this document are provided only to enhance the transparency and should not be construed as
confirmation of the views expressed in the report. The views expressed in this report reflect the personal views of the author of the
report and do not reflect the views of ASSL or any of it's associate and group companies about the subject company or companies and
its or their securities. “Neither Axis Securities & Sales Limited nor the author of this report nor his/her dependent family members have
any interest or long or short position in the securities discussed in this report.”




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