Fixed Income Essay by pengxiang

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									                                                                                                                            March 16, 2012




Fixed Income Essay

Implications of UST yield hikes on KTBs                                                                           Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd.
                                                                                                                  Yeo-sam Yoon
                                                                                                                  Senior Fixed Income Strategist
10-year UST yield rises to a multi-month high                                                                     +822-768-4022
                                                                                                                  yeosam.yoon@dwsec.com
The 10-year UST yield appears to have broken out of the multi-month tight range
trading, jumping more than 20bp this week to the highest level since last October.                                Erika Leigh
The flight from the fixed income market seems to be gaining pace as the US                                        +822-768-4124
                                                                                                                  erika.leigh@dwsec.com
continues to release encouraging economic data, confirming the economy is out of
the woods and reviving the risk appetite. Although some argue that the bond-market
correction has just started as they believe the US economy is firmly on track to
recovery, we still believe it is too early to judge that is the case. For one, US
policymakers remain concerned about the state of their economy despite a recent
recovery. Probably implying the fading confidence about the US economy, the
Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is on a decline. Moreover, the consensus growth
forecast for the US economy remains weak, at 2.2% for 2012 and 2.45% for 2013.
Thus, the odds are still good that the US recovery will prove a flash in the pan, and
that the Fed will draw the card of QE3 in the coming months.

The upside of UST yields should be limited
Despite the current strong selling pressure, we recommend a wait-and-see stance
for the time being as sentiment could still turn bullish. Our call is premised on the
assumption that the upside of UST yields is limited. If the 10-year UST yield tops
2.5%, the 3-year KTB yield could exceed 3.57%. But we believe the upside of the 3-
year KTB yield will be limited because it has already climbed by over 20bp from early-
2012. As UST yields continue to rise, the feeling will grow that the market is being
oversold. If the 3-year KTB yield rises above 3.5%, that will be a good opportunity to
buy.




UST yield climbs to a new yearly high as demand for safe-haven assets plunges

  (%)           10yr UST yield (L)                                                                         (%)
   4.5          3yr KTB yield (R)                                                                           4.8
                                                                    Rising 10yr UST yield
                                                            puts upward pressure on 3yr KTB yield
  4.0
                                                                                                           4.4

  3.5
                                                                                                           4

  3.0
                                                                                                           3.6
  2.5

                                                                                                           3.2
  2.0


  1.5                                                                                                      2.8
         1/09       7/09             1/10   7/10     1/11           7/11             1/12           7/12

Source: Bloomberg


Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S.
March 16, 2012                                                                                                                                 Fixed Income Essay




                           UST yields surge for good reasons, but…
Have UST yields just       The 10-year UST yield appears to have broken out of the multi-month tight range trading,
begun to rise?             jumping more than 20bp this week to the highest since last October. It touched a high of
                           2.348% on Thursday. Bond yields of other advanced economies, including Germany, also
                           followed suit. All this, no doubt, should put upward pressures on KTB yields.

Solid US recovery is       The flight from the fixed income market seems to be gaining pace as the US continues to
behind rising UST yields   release encouraging economic data, confirming the economy is out of the woods and
                           reviving the risk appetite. In its March meeting, the FOMC dampened the prospects for yet
                           another round of quantitative easing (QE3), citing a string of data suggesting the US
                           economy is back on sound footing. When the expectations of implementing QE3 were high,
                           the market expected the Fed would buy US$500~800bn worth of bonds.

Expectations of QE3 are    Physically, demand for US bonds is set to decline as the Fed is likely to reduce or stop
fading                     buying US Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities (MBS) amid improving US economic
                           data. Now with the hopes of the Fed buying additional bonds fading dramatically, the US
                           bond market will likely remain weak for the time being. The 10-year Treasury yield could rise
                           to around 2.5%, as some forecast.

                           Figure 1. Major safe-haven assets have lost their attractiveness since the last FOMC
                                 (%)                                                                              10yr UST yield
                                 4.00                                                                             10yr Bund yield
                                                                                                                  JPM GBI Global: Developed Market Bond Index

                                 3.50


                                 3.00


                                 2.50


                                 2.00


                                 1.50
                                        1/09            7/09                1/10                 7/10               1/11              7/11                 1/12

                           Source: Bloomberg


                           Figure 2. Consensus expects 10yr UST yield to rise to 2.5%
                                 (%)           10yr UST yield           FR(0%)                FR(23.6%)             FR(38.2%)
                                 4.0           FR(50.0%)                FR(61.8%)             FR(76.4%)             FR(100%)
                                                                                                                                                                  3.74
                                 3.6


                                 3.2                                                                                                                        3.25
                                                                                                                     G S and B lackrock see 10yr US T yield
                                                                                                                           ending t he year near 2. 5%      2.90
                                 2.8
                                                                                                                                                                  2.70
                                                                  Economy enters upcycle
                                                                                                                                                                  2. 50
                                 2.4                           Concerns on economic slowdown eases
                                                                                                                                                                  2. 20
                                 2.0                             If financial market sentiment improves,
                                                                  10yr UST yield increases above 2.2%
                                                                                                                                                                  1.70
                                 1.6
                                       10/10    12/10            2/11          4/11           6/11         8/11            10/11      12/11         2/12

                           Source: Bloomberg




KDB Daewoo Securities Research                                                                                                                                            2
March 16, 2012                                                                                                                                                          Fixed Income Essay




Figure 3. Dow Jones breaks through 13,000-point threshold                                         Figure 4. Economic indicators in the US and Germany look positive
 (%)                                                                                     (p)       (YoY, %)                            US retail sales (L)                                         (p)
 4.5           10yr UST yield (L)                                                     14,000       15                                  Germany ZEW indicator of economic sentiment (R)               80
               DJIA (R)
                                                                                      13,000                                                                                                        60
 4.0                                                                                               10
                                                                                      12,000                                                                                                        40
 3.5                                                                                                5
                                                                                      11,000                                                                                                        20

 3.0                                                                                  10,000        0                                                                                               0

                                                                 Previous high        9,000                                                                                                         -20
 2.5                                                                 2.4%                           -5
                                                                                      8,000                                                                                                         -40
 2.0                                                                                               -10
                                                                                      7,000                                                                                                         -60

 1.5                                                                                  6,000        -15                                                                                              -80
        1/09    7/09        1/10          7/10    1/11    7/11          1/12                             05      06          07         08            09           10          11          12

Source: Bloomberg                                                                                 Source: Bloomberg


Figure 5. Rising inflation expectations amid surge in oil prices                                  Figure 6. Fed did not signal further stimulus at March FOMC
 (%)                                                                             (US$/bbl)         (US$tr)
 4.0           US 10yr BEI (L)                                                                5    3.5            US reserve balance: reserve bank credit
               US 5yr BEI (L)
               US retail gasoline price (R)                                                                       US reserve balance: UST
                                                                                                   3.0            US reserve balance: MBS
 3.0                                                                                          4
                                                                                                   2.5

 2.0                                                                                          3
                                                                                                   2.0


 1.0                                                                                          2    1.5

                                                                                                   1.0
 0.0                                                                                          1
                                                                                                   0.5

 -1.0                                                                                         0    0.0
         05     06          07           08      09      10        11            12                      1/08   7/08      1/09      7/09       1/10         7/10        1/11        7/11    1/12

Source: Bloomberg                                                                                 Source: US Fed




KDB Daewoo Securities Research                                                                                                                                                                            3
March 16, 2012                                                                                                                                                                Fixed Income Essay




                                             The upside of UST yields should be limited
US policymakers remain                       Some argue that the bond-market correction has just started, as they believe the US (and
concerned about the                          global) economy is firmly on track to recovery. But we still believe it is too early to judge that
economic health                              is the case. For one, US policymakers remain concerned about the state of their economy
                                             despite a recent recovery. Otherwise, why has the Fed chairman Bernanke pledged to keep
                                             interest rates near a record low until 2014? Needless to say, a continued rise in bond yields
                                             should be detrimental to the economy, which has just begun to recover. Also, economic
                                             momentum could still worsen as the US is in the middle of cutting fiscal spending and
                                             running out of stimulus options. We believe the skepticism about the economy will
                                             resurface in 2Q12, limiting the upside of UST yields.

                                             Probably implying the fading confidence about the US economy, the Citigroup Economic
                                             Surprise Index is on a decline. Moreover, the consensus growth forecast for the US
                                             economy remains weak, at 2.2% for 2012 and 2.45% for 2013. Thus, the odds are still good
                                             that the US recovery will prove a flash in the pan, and that the Fed will draw the card of QE3
                                             in the coming months.

                                             Figure 7. UST yield tends to fall following the end of monetary easing
                                                      (%)   QE1 launched                              QE1 ended              QE2 launched         QE2 ended       OTlaunched            OT to end
                                                  4.0


                                                  3.5


                                                  3.0

                                                                                                                                                                                         ?
                                                  2.5


                                                  2.0


                                                  1.5
                                                        1/09               7/09                1/10                   7/10                1/11          7/11              1/12               7/12

                                             Source: Bloomberg

                                                                                                       Figure 9. Strong USD on reduced dollar liquidity is a headwind for risk
Figure 8. US economic data may lose strength
                                                                                                                 asset prices
 (p)                                                                                                     (p)                 Dollar Index (L)                                                          (p)
                                                                                                         90                  S&P 500 (R)                                                             1,600
 150           CITI US surprise index (L)                                                4.5
               10yr UST yield (R)
 100
                                                                                         4.0             86                                                                                          1,400
  50
                                                                                         3.5
                                                                                                         82                                                                                          1,200
   0
                                                                                         3.0
  -50                                                                                                    78                                                                                          1,000
                                                                                         2.5
 -100
                                                                                                         74                                                                                          800
 -150                                                                                    2.0


 -200                                                                                    1.5             70                                                                                          600
        1/09   7/09       1/10        7/10     1/11         7/11      1/12        7/12                         1/09          7/09        1/10    7/10      1/11        7/11      1/12         7/12

Source: Bloomberg                                                                                      Source: Bloomberg




KDB Daewoo Securities Research                                                                                                                                                                               4
March 16, 2012                                                                                                                Fixed Income Essay




                            Implications of UST yield hikes on KTBs
We recommend a wait-        Selling pressures on KTBs are on the rise. Foreign selloffs are intensifying, and domestic
and-see stance              investors may think it is still too early for bargain-hunting. But despite the current strong
                            selling pressure, we recommend a wait-and-see stance for the time being as sentiment
                            could still turn bullish. Our call is premised on the assumption that the upside of UST yields
                            is limited.

                            If the 10-year UST yield tops 2.5%, the 3-year KTB yield could exceed 3.57%. But we
                            believe the upside of the 3-year KTB yield will be limited because it has already climbed by
                            over 20bp from early-2012. When the UST yield soared to 2.4% in October 2011 (before the
                            launch of the Operation Twist program), the 3-year KTB yieldÊs upside was limited below
                            3.55%.

If the 3-year KTB yield     The direction of the bond market will depend pretty much on whether the US economy
tops 3.5%, that will be a   continues humming along through 2Q12 without falling back on policy supports. Thus, the
good opportunity to buy     flight out of the safe haven asset market at this moment could prove premature. As UST
                            yields continue to rise, the feeling will grow that the market is being oversold. If the 3-year
                            KTB yield rises above 3.5%, that will be a good opportunity to buy. Assuming that the Bank
                            of Korea is not inclined to raise the base rate this year, the spread (30bp) between the policy
                            rate and the 3-year yield appears as wide as it can be.

                            Figure 10. The gap between 3yr KTB yield and 10yr UST yield has narrowed; Further upward pressure on
                            KTB yield to ease
                                 (%)            10yr UST yield (L)                                                                              (%)
                                 4.5            3yr KTB yield (R)                                                                               4.8
                                                                                          10yr UST yield surged above 2.4% last October
                                 4.0                                                      while KTB yield maintained its level at mid-3.5%
                                                                                                                                                4.4

                                 3.5
                                                                                                                                                4
                                 3.0
                                                                                                                                                3.6
                                 2.5

                                                                                                                                                3.2
                                 2.0


                                 1.5                                                                                                            2.8
                                       1/09        7/09              1/10   7/10   1/11              7/11              1/12              7/12

                            Source: Bloomberg




KDB Daewoo Securities Research                                                                                                                        5
March 16, 2012                                                                                                                                          Fixed Income Essay




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KDB Daewoo Securities Research                                                                                                                                                      6

								
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