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					         Money Weekly                                                                   18 May 2012                Aditya Birla Money


           Index

                                                                                                         Developed Equity Markets                      % Change
                                                   Page                                      Page
                                                    No.                                       No.                                         Last Close   WTD          YTD

               Corporate News                      2           Industrial Production        6          U.S. (S&P)*                          1,305    (3.6)         3.8
                                                                                                         UK (FTSE)*                           5,296    (5.0)        (5.0)
               Macro Economic News                 2           Consumer Durables            6
                                                                                                         Japan (Nikkei 225)                   8,611    (3.8)         1.8
               Global Sector Performance           3           Capital Goods                6          Germany (DAX)*                       6,294    (4.3)         6.7

               Nifty Index Forward Multiples       3           Derivatives Corner           7-9        France (CAC)*                        3,011    (3.8)        (4.7)
                                                                                                         Italy (FTSEMIB)*                    13,187    (6.1)       (12.6)
               Global Indices                      4           Outlook                      10
                                                                                                         Spain (IBEX)*                        6,581    (5.9)       (23.2)
               Government Bond                     5           Event Calendar               10         BRIC Equity Markets
                                                                                                         India (Sensex)                      16,153    (0.9)         4.5
           Major Event of the Week                                                                       India (Nifty)                        4,891    (0.8)         5.8
                                                                                                         China (Shanghai)                     2,345    (2.1)         6.6
                                                                     th                                  Russia (Micex)*                      1,286    (7.6)        (8.3)
          Rupee hits record low of 54.91 against dollar (on 18 May)
                                                                                                         Brazil (Ibov)*                      54,038    (9.1)        (4.8)
                                                                                                         Asian Equity Markets
          Nifty & Institutional Flow                                                                     Hong Kong(HSI)                      18,952    (5.1)         2.8
                                                                                                         Korea (Kospi)                        1,782    (7.0)        (2.4)

          (` Mn)                                                                                         BSE Sector                                    % Change
                                           5332                                                                                           Last Close   WTD          YTD
          30000                                                                               5400
                                 5277                                                                    BSE Mid Cap                          5,865    (1.4)       14.2
          25000                                                                               5300
                      5359                          5189         5188                                    BSE Small Cap                        6,255    (2.2)       12.7
          20000
                                                                                              5200       Auto                                 9,231    (5.6)       13.4
          15000
                                                                                              5100       Bankex                              10,727    (1.0)       17.2
          10000
                                                                            4966                         Capital Goods                        8,718    (1.0)         8.1
           5000                                                                               5000
                                                                                                         Power                                1,781    (2.3)        (0.8)
              0                                                                               4900
                                                                                                         Realty                               1,556    (0.3)       13.1
          (5000)
                                                                                     4870     4800       Technology                           3,203    (0.2)        (5.2)
         (10000)
                                                                                              4700       FMCG                                 4,698    1.7         16.4
         (15000)
                                                                                                         Metal                               10,078    (0.3)         8.4
         (20000)                                                                              4600
                                                                                                         Institutional Activity                              Spot market
                      03-Apr     12-Apr   19-Apr    26-Apr      03-May 10-May 17-May
                                                                                                                                               WTD     MTD          YTD
                                  FII (LHS)         MF (LHS)              Nifty (RHS)                    FII (Rs bn)*                          (3.9)   (3.6)      425.0
                                                                                                         MF (Rs bn)*                            2.0    (1.8)       (65.5)
        Source: NSE
                                                                                                         Commodities Update                            % Change
        Note: As per Thursday closing
                                                                                                                                  Unit        Close    WTD          YTD
          Top Nifty Movers Shakers                                                                       Crude Oil(Brent)**       $/Bbl        107     (4.7)        (0.4)
                                                                                                         Gold(OTC)**              $/Oz        1,591    0.7           1.7
                                                                                                         Silver(OTC)**            $/Oz           28    (1.5)         2.3
                                                                                                         Copper(LME)**            $/MT        7,695    (5.0)         1.4
                                     Sterlite
         Sesa Goa 8.4%                                    SBI 4.7%           Power Grid 3.7%             Aluminum(LME)**          $/MT        2,014    0.5           1.0
                                 Industries 6.1%
                                                                                                         Sugar(LIFFE)**           $/MT         574     3.3          (4.7)
                                                                                                         ZINC(LME)**              $/MT        1,900    (2.5)         3.0
                                                                                                         Currency                                      % Change
                                                                                                                                              Close    WTD          YTD
                                                        Jindal Steel &                                   INR/USD**                             54.5    (1.6)        (2.6)
              BPCL 3.5%           Infosys 3.1%                                     ITC 2.3%
                                                          Power 3%                                       USD/EURO**                             1.3    1.8           2.1
                                                                                                         USD/JPY**                             79.4    0.7          (3.1)
                                                                                                         * As per Thursday closing
                                                                                                         ** As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
                                                           Reliance                                      Source: Bloomberg
              Tata Motors                                                      Maruti Suzuki
                                   Bhel (9.2%)          Infrastructure
                (12.6%)                                                           (5.6%)
                                                            (7.7%)


                                    Hindalco
              Axis Bank                              Reliance Com.
                                   Industries                      Coal India Ltd (3.6%)
               (5.1%)                                    (4.3%)
                                     (4.6%)
                                                                                                      
        Source: NSE



                                                                     Aditya Birla Money Limited
                       2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                                Page No: 1
        Money Weekly                                                            18 May 2012                Aditya Birla Money
         

        Top Corporate News during the week

        Tata Motors JLR April sales up by 29.4% on YoY and dropped by 31% on MoM; deceleration in sales momentum(JLR) and
        continuing decline in core domestic business (M&HCV) are likely to put pressure on the stock in the short term.
        Global sales of Jaguar Land Rover in Apr 2012 were 25143 vehicles, higher by 29.4% YoY and witnessed a drop on MoM basis by 31.1%
        (MoM). Jaguar sales for the month were at 3603 increased by 17%, while Land Rover sales were at 21540 higher by 31.7% on YoY.
        Even though, drop in monthly sales on April month is seasonal in nature (MoM), deceleration on YoY basis (after 4 months of strong
        ~45% growth) and heavy drop on MoM are likely to be perceived by the market as JLR engine slows down. It may be due to strong
        discounts offered by competitors in Chinese market.
        On YTD basis, TM has outperformed the market by a huge margin (~55%), thanks to its continued strong JLR performance, which
        mitigated the deteriorating domestic business. To be more precise, the market has corrected by ~11% from the peak (21st Feb’12),
        whereas TM has risen by ~7% during the same time. Eventhough, the stock is trading at a cheap valuation (~9% on FY13E BE) compared
        to its industry peers but volatile nature of earning justifies that. Nearly after a year’s strong performance, deceleration in sales momentum
        on its crown jewel (JLR) and continuing decline in core domestic business (M&HCV) are likely to put pressure on the stock in the short
        term.

        JSW Steel’s results below expectations (Short term negative)
        JSW Steel’s standalone PBT before exceptional items declined 23.1% YoY to Rs8.6bn on account of higher iron ore costs. There was a
        foreign exchange gain of Rs1.99bn. In its consolidated operations, JSW Steel’s international raw material projects are performing far
        below guidance. Although JSW Ispat’s losses have decreased, its far away from a turnaround. The US operations posted an improved
        performance, with the capacity utilisation of the plate mill and pipe mill rising to 44% and 16% in Q4FY12 as compared to 28% and 13% in
        Q3FY12. Going forward, with the rupee likely to remain under pressure, unrealised foreign exchange losses on acceptances would
        materialise. Inadequate iron ore availability, high raw material costs, slowing domestic investment growth, likely foreign exchange losses
        and high debt would continue to weigh on JSW Steel’s performance going forward. We have a Sell rating on JSW Steel.

        Mahindra Satyam Q4 beats estimates on operational parameters; 5th consecutive quarter of margin improvement, which brought
        back the margin to the industry levels of above 17%; consecutive upbeat performances would trigger street estimates upwards
        and potential re-rating candidate – Strong Buy for both short to long term perspective.
        During Q4FY12, Mahindra Satyam’s topline registered an impressive $ term growth of 3.7% to $337 mn from $325 mn on sequential basis.
        In rupee terms, revenue declined by ~3%, mainly because of rupee appreciation of ~6.5% on QoQ basis (Rs. 49.43 vs Rs.52.86 in Q3). On
        Vertical wise, Technology, Media & Entertainment (TM&E) (14.6%) led the growth, whereas rest grew in-line with company average growth
        of 3.7%, except BFSI contrasted by -6.1% On Geographical basis, US improved by 5.8% and Europe remained soft (QoQ in $ terms).
        EBITDA increased by 4.8% to Rs. 2.91 bn from Rs. 2.78 bn, with a margin expansion of 132 bps to 17.5% from 16.2% on QoQ basis,
        despite unfavourable rupee movement. Reported PAT has improved by 73.2% to Rs. 5.34 bn from Rs. 2.39 bn, include one-time
        exceptional gain, reversal of taxes and forex loss of Rs. 588 mn vs forex gain of Rs.663.9 mn in Q3.

        The results are above estimates on operational basis and fifth consecutive quarters of margin expansion from 6.4% in Q3FY11 to 17.5% in
        Q4FY12, which bought back the company to industry levels of above 17% operating margin. Currently, MS is trading at ~8.5x on its
        FY13E, consecutive strong performance would trigger potential upward revisions in street estimates and re-rating in the short term. In
        addition strong operational performance, healthy cash position (37% of M-cap) and investment in emerging areas of mobility, Cloud and
        security solutions would make us believe Mahindra Satyam would be a potential re-rating candidate in the short to medium term.

        Bajaj Auto Q4 slightly below estimates; Near term headwinds such as sharp rise in import duty on its main export market Sri
        Lanka (~35% and ~10% of 3W and 2W export volumes) would cap the upside potential and likely to underperform in the short
        term.
        During Q4FY12, Bajaj Auto registered a topline growth of 10.7% to Rs. 46.51 bn from Rs. 41.99 bn on corresponding basis. On an overall
        basis, the company registered a volume growth of 7.3% to 10.17 lacs vehicles and realisation gain of 3.2% on YoY basis. The growth
        largely led by exports markets (2W – 27.9% growth and 3W – 18.2%), whereas the domestic market remained soft for the second
        consecutive quarter (2W & 3W – only by -0.1% and -3.4% respectively) on YoY basis. EBITDA increased modestly by 6.9% to Rs. 9.21 bn
        and the operating margin dipped by 72 bps to 19.8%, mainly due to lower realisation in domestic market. Adjusted PAT increased by
        14.2% to Rs. 7.72 bn from Rs.6.76 bn.

        Overall, the results are slightly below estimates. The management is sticking to its guidance of ~5 lacs units and ~20% EBITDA Margin
        profile for FY13E. However, Bajaj is likely to face near term headwinds in the export market, especially in Sri Lanka (which contributes
        ~35% of 3W and ~10% of 2W exports) because of sharp increase in import duty. With new high value product launches and better
        exposure towards export market would help Bajaj Auto to maintain the decent growth in the medium to long term, with best in class
        industry margins. Currently, the stock is trading at ~13x on its FY13E (BE) estimates, in-line with industry standard. Near-term headwinds
        would cap the upside potential and likely to under perform in the near term.




                                                                Aditya Birla Money Limited
                    2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                          Page No: 2
        Money Weekly                                                                18 May 2012                 Aditya Birla Money
         
        Macro Economy & Other News

        Domestic                                                                          International

        April indirect tax collection up 10.4%                                            Moody’s rating downgraded 16 Spanish banks
        Collection of indirect taxes jumped by 10.4% to Rs 330.45 bn in                   Moody’s lowered debt rating of 16 Spanish banks citing a
        the first month of the current fiscal on the back of increase in                  recession and mounting losses while Greece rating was reduced
        excise duty and service tax rates.                                                one level by Fitch rating on concern country may not be able to
                                                                                          sustain its membership in Euro area.
        Deposit growth slowed down to 13.9% YoY
        Deposit growth slowed down to 13.93% YoY to Rs 6.06 tn as on                      U.S. jobless claims unchanged at 370K
        May 1 as depositors moved to gold and real estate for inflation                   The number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits was
        adjusted returns, leaving little room for banks to cut rates.                     unchanged at 370K in the week ended May 12, confirming a view
                                                                                          of a labor market that’s still slowly improving.
        Monsoon to set over Kerala coast on June 1: IMD
        The South-West monsoon is expected to break over Kerala                           U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index plunge in May
        coast on June 1 (2nd time in last 7-yrs that the onset date                       Business conditions at manufacturing firms in the Philadelphia
        should get pushed into June). A model error of plus or minus                      region fell to -5.8 from 8.5 in April, well below expectations.
        four days is assumed on the date of the onset.                                    Reading below zero indicates that more companies are contracting
                                                                                          instead of expanding.
        WPI inflation rose to 7.23% on higher food prices
        Indian inflation accelerated in Apri’12 on account of spurt in                    Euro Zone avoided second recession on German GDP
        vegetable, meat, milk and pulses prices, crimping RBI’s scope                     The euro-zone economy steadied in Q12012 as a surprisingly
        of rate cuts. The WPI rose 7.23% YoY after climbing 6.89% in                      strong rebound in Germany was balanced by contractions in Italy
        prior month.                                                                      and Spain. GDP was unchanged followed a contraction of 0.3% in
                                                                                          Q42011
        Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg




                                                                  Aditya Birla Money Limited
                     2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                             Page No: 3
          Money Weekly                                                                        18 May 2012                 Aditya Birla Money
           

          Global Equity Indices & Sectoral Performance

                                                  Index     Index                       Basic                                                     Oil &    Health     Consumer
                                                                   Technology                      Financials   Telecom   Industrials Utilities
         Developed                                value     Return                     Materials                                                  Gas       Care       Goods
                                                                        %                 %              %        %           %           %        %         %               %


         US                           DOW          12442    -2.95     -2.55             -5.54       -11.41       1.06       -3.26         ----     -1.5    -1.27         -1.63
         UK                          FTSE           5287    -5.18     -5.79             -8.11         -6.4       -3.31      -2.17        0.64     -4.16    -0.58         -0.86
         GERMANY                      DAX           6281    -4.54     -1.23             -2.89        -6.74       -1.59      -4.27        -4.8       ----   -0.69         -1.13
         FRANCE                       CAC           3002    -4.08      -4.9             -4.97        -9.45       -6.19      -3.72       -6.37     -2.11    -2.34          0.82
         JAPAN                       NIKKEI         8611    -3.82     -1.67             -2.25        -1.79       -1.02      -0.72       -3.86     -4.29    -3.22         -2.05

         BRIC

         BRAZIL                    BOVESPA         54038    -9.10      ----             -10.92       -7.48       -6.67      -4.69       -4.78     -8.19    -0.37         -2.86
         RUSSIA                     MICEX           1285    -7.67      ----              -3.82      -10.88       -3.56       ----       -7.14     -5.26     ----          ----
         INDIA                      NIFTY           4891    -0.76     -1.03              -2.44       -2.07       -3.68      -2.75       -3.51     -2.43    -2.47         -0.64
         CHINA                     SANGHAI          2345    -2.11     -2.62              -2.48        -0.8       -1.84      -1.31       -0.08     -4.59    -0.14         -0.74

         Asian

         HONG KONG                    HSI          18952    -5.07      0.81             -6.77        -5.89       -5.68      -4.67       -3.02     -4.08      ----        -3.85
         KOREA                       KOSPI          1782    -7.02     -7.81              -3.9        -3.69        -3.2      -4.86       -0.82     -2.87    -4.64         -4.06
         SINGAPORE                  STRAITS         2779    -3.62       ----              ----       -2.79       -2.09      -0.11        ----      -1.5      ----         -8.8
         TAIWAN                      TWSE           7151    -3.38     -1.25             -1.73        -3.02       3.02       -2.64       -1.59     -3.73     -2.7         -1.26    
        Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
        Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST




          Nifty Relative Valuation Metrics (1 Year Forward)


                                         1Yr Forw ard P/E                                                                     1Yr Forw ard P/B
          26.0                                                                                     4.5

          24.0
                                                                                                   4.0                                                              +2 SD
          22.0                                                                  +2 SD

                                                                                                   3.5
          20.0                                                                                                                                                      +1 SD
                                                                                +1 SD
          18.0                                                                                     3.0
                                                                                                                                                                 Mean: 2.7
          16.0                                                          Mean: 15.2
                                                                                                   2.5
          14.0

                                                                                                   2.0
          12.0
                                                                                                                                                                     -1 SD
                                                                               -1 SD
          10.0                                                                                     1.5
                                                                             -2 SD                                                                                   -2 SD
              8.0
               Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jul-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Mar-12               1.0
                                                                                                    Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jul-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Mar-12



        Source: NSE, ABML Research




                                                                     Aditya Birla Money Limited
                         2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                                   Page No: 4
        Money Weekly                                                                        18 May 2012                       Aditya Birla Money
         

        Global Indices Forward P/E

            16.0                                                                                                                                                                    25%
            14.0
                                                                                                                                                                                    20%
            12.0
            10.0                                                                                                                                                                    15%
             8.0
             6.0                                                                                                                                                                    10%
             4.0
                                                                                                                                                                                    5%
             2.0
             0.0                                                                                                                                                                    0%
                     Brazil      Russia     India         China     US         Germany      France          UK        Japan      Hong Kong     Korea      Singapore     Taiw an
                   BOVESPA        Micex     Nifty*       SHCOMP    Dow J          DAX        CAC           FTSE       NIKKEI*       His-       Kospi        Straits     TWSE
                                                                   PE CY11         PE CY12           EPS % Change
                                                                   PE FY11*          PE FY12*

        Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
        Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST


        Global Indices Forward P/BV

            3.0                                                                                                                                                                   6.0

            2.5                                                                                                                                                                   5.0

            2.0                                                                                                                                                                   4.0




                                                                                                                                                                                        (%)
            1.5                                                                                                                                                                   3.0

            1.0                                                                                                                                                                   2.0

            0.5                                                                                                                                                                   1.0

            0.0                                                                                                                                                                   0.0
                     Brazil     Russia     India         China     US        Germany       France        UK        Japan        Hong Kong    Korea     Singapore      Taiw an
                   BOVESPA       Micex     Nifty*       SHCOMP    Dow J         DAX         CAC         FTSE       NIKKEI*         His-      Kospi       Straits      TWSE
                                                           P/BV CY11           P/BV CY12          Dividend Yield CY12
                                                            PE FY11*           PE FY12*


        Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
        Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST



        Global Indices RoE

                                                                                             RoE
            23%
            21%
            19%
            17%
            15%
            13%
            11%
             9%
             7%
             5%
                      Brazil      Russia       India       China        US        Germany         France        UK           Japan     Hong Kong       Korea   Singapore        Taiw an
                    BOVESPA        Micex       Nifty*     SHCOMP       Dow J         DAX           CAC         FTSE          NIKKEI*      His-         Kospi     Straits        TWSE

                                                                                 CY11      CY12        FY11*      FY12*


        Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
        Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST




                                                                       Aditya Birla Money Limited
                       2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                                   Page No: 5
          Money Weekly                                                                                                                                                                 18 May 2012                              Aditya Birla Money
           

          Government Bond Yield (India)


                                                           Governm ent Bond Yields                                                                                                                                 Monthly changed in Govt. Bond Yield Curve

                    9.5                                                                                                                                                                            8.8              8.75                                                                                                                 8.74
                    9.0                                                                                                                                                                            8.7                                      8.61
                    8.5                                                                                                                                                                            8.6                                                                                                        8.56

                    8.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               8.45
                                                                                                                                                                                                   8.5                                                                                                                                    8.56
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    8.51                                                                                      8.51
              (%)




                    7.5                                                                                                                                                                            8.4




                                                                                                                                                                                            (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       8.42                                                8.41
                    7.0                                                                                                                                                                            8.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        8.15
                    6.5                                                                                                                                                                            8.2
                    6.0                                                                                                                                                                            8.1
                    5.5                                                                                                                                                                            8.0                                                                  8.07
                                                           Jan-10


                                                                                 Jun-10


                                                                                                      Oct-10


                                                                                                                   Feb-11


                                                                                                                                      Jul-11


                                                                                                                                                            Nov-11


                                                                                                                                                                              Mar-12
                                              Sep-09
                           Apr-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                   7.9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    3m                      6m                          1Yr             5Yr                   10Yr                       15Yr
                                                                    GIND5YR Index                                           GIND10YR Index                                                                                                        5/17/2012                                     4/17/2012

        Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research

          G-sec – AAA Corporate Bond — Spread (India)


                                                            5 Yr Corp Bond Spread                                                                                                                                                  10 Year Corp Bond Spread
                    10                                                                                                                                                                            11

                    9                                                                                                                                                                             10

                    8                                                                                                                                                                             9

                                                                                                                                                                                                  8
                    7
              (%)




                                                                                                                                                                                                  7
                                                                                                                                                                                            (%)




                    6
                                                                                                                                                                                                  6
                    5
                                                                                                                                                                                                  5
                    4
                                                                                                                                                                                                  4
                         Jan-09


                                            Jun-09


                                                         Oct-09


                                                                              Mar-10




                                                                                                                Dec-10


                                                                                                                                 May-11


                                                                                                                                                        Oct-11


                                                                                                                                                                          Feb-12
                                                                                                   Aug-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jun-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec-10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     May-11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Feb-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Aug-10




                                           5 Yr AAA Corporate Bond Yield                                                              5 Yr Govt Bond Yield                                                           0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1 Yr AAA Corporate Bond Yield                                                         0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1 Yr Govt Bond Yield


        Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research

          CD & CP Rates Movement


                                                       Certificate of Deposit Rates                                                                                                                                                    Com m ercial Paper Rates
                    13.5                                                                                                                                                                          13
                    11.5                                                                                                                                                                          11
                     9.5                                                                                                                                                                           9
                                                                                                                                                                                            (%)
              (%)




                     7.5                                                                                                                                                                           7
                     5.5                                                                                                                                                                           5
                     3.5                                                                                                                                                                           3
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Feb/09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    May/09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan/10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               May/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Nov/11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar/12




                     1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep/09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Aug/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Apr/11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aug/11
                                  Jan/09

                                              May/09



                                                                     Jan/10

                                                                                          May/10



                                                                                                                Dec/10



                                                                                                                                               Jul/11

                                                                                                                                                                 Nov/11

                                                                                                                                                                            Mar/12
                                                       Sep/09




                                                                                                       Aug/10



                                                                                                                             Apr/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      CP 3month                                 CP 6month                        CP 12 month
                                           CD 3month                                   CD 6month                             CD 12month

        Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research


                                                                                                                                                  Aditya Birla Money Limited
                                       2nd    Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                                                                                                                             Page No: 6
         Money Weekly                                                                                                                                18 May 2012                                      Aditya Birla Money
          
          Index of Industrial Production


                                             Index of Industrial Production                                                                                                                     %  in Industrial Production
             250                                                                                                                                             20   15                                                                                                                                                               15
                   193


                                                                                                                                                                                                      9




                                                                                                                                            186
                                                                                                             180

                                                                                                                       178
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            8




                                                                                                                                 175
                                                     171
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   10




                                                                                                    168
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6 6                                                     7




                                                                167
                              166

                                          166




                                                                                  164
                                                                         161
                                                                                                                                                             10                5            6




                                                                                           158
             200                                                                                                                                                                                                   4         3             2                                             ( 1)          4
                                                                                                                                                                  9                                                                                 (4)                                                                            5
             150                                                                                                                                         -
                                                                                                                                                                                        -            3          (2)                    2                                    3                                                      -
                                                                                                                                                         (10)                                                               (3)                                                           1            (2)
             100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (5)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -3
                                                                                                                                                         (20)                                                                                        -5                                                                            (10)
             50                                                                                                                                                              ( 14 )




                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-11


                                                                                                                                                                                        May-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Nov-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dec-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Feb-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sep-11
                                                                                                                                                                              Apr-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Aug-11
              0
                                          May-11




                                                                                                    Nov-11
                   Mar-11




                                                                                                                                            Mar-12
                              Apr-11



                                                     Jun-11

                                                                Jul-11

                                                                         Aug-11

                                                                                  Sep-11

                                                                                           Oct-11



                                                                                                             Dec-11

                                                                                                                       Jan-12

                                                                                                                                 Feb-12
                                                                                                                                                                                              MoM (%) (LHS)                                                     YoY (%) (RHS)


        Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research

          Consumer Durables


                                                    Consumer Durables Index                                                                                                             %  in Consum er Durables Index
             400                                                                                                                                             15   15                                                                       11                                                                                      20
                                                                                                                                          324
                    323




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   8                                                                                                         9
                                                                                  308
                                                                305




                                                                                                    298

                                                                                                             298



                                                                                                                                298



                                                                                                                                                             10                                                                                                                                                                    15
                               291




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  10
                                                                                                                      289
                                                                                           288




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3
                                           283

                                                     282



                                                                         278




                                                                                                                                                              5                             5         (0)                     6                                                                                                    10
             300                                                                                                                                                                2                                                                                               5          (3)
                                                                                                                                                         -                                                          9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5
                                                                                                                                                          (5)         2                                                                     9                       3             0                                                0
                                                                                                                                                                                                          2                                                                                              -6
             200                                                                                                                                         (10)                               (3)                                                     ( 7) 0                                                                0        -5
                                                                                                                                                         (15)                 ( 10 )                                         (9)                                                         -7                                        -10

                                                                                                                                                                    Mar-11


                                                                                                                                                                                            May-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Feb-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-11
                                                                                                                                                                               Apr-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aug-11
             100
                                           May-11
                    Mar-11




                                                                                                    Nov-11




                                                                                                                                          Mar-12
                               Apr-11



                                                     Jun-11

                                                                Jul-11

                                                                         Aug-11

                                                                                  Sep-11

                                                                                           Oct-11



                                                                                                             Dec-11

                                                                                                                      Jan-12

                                                                                                                                Feb-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                MoM (%) (LHS)                                                   YoY (%) (RHS)

        Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research

          Consumer Non Durables


                                            Consumer Non Durables Index                                                                                                       %  in Consum er Non Durables Index
                                                                                                             172

                                                                                                                      169




                                                                                                                                                             30                                                                                                                 23                                                 20
                                                                                                                                160




             200
                                                                                                                                          156
                    155




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                15
                                                                                                    140
                                           138

                                                     138
                               137




                                                                134




                                                                                                                                                             20    12                                                                                                                     11                                       15
                                                                                  126
                                                                         123



                                                                                           121




                                                                                                                                                                                            9
             150
                                                                                                                                                             10                    5                              4                        2                        16 14                                  4                       10
                                                                                                                                                                                                          4                                          (4)                                                             (3)
                                                                                                                                                         -                                                                  (8)                                                                                                    5
             100
                                                                                                                                                         (10)       1                         1       -                                                                                                                            -
                                                                                                                                                                                                                (4)                        3                                             (2)           ( 5)
              50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1
                                                                                                                                                         (20)                 ( 11)                                          ( 1)                     0                                                                            (5)
                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-11


                                                                                                                                                                                        May-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Dec-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Feb-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sep-11
                                                                                                                                                                               Apr-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Aug-11




               0
                                           May-11
                    Mar-11




                                                                                                    Nov-11




                                                                                                                                          Mar-12
                                                                         Aug-11

                                                                                  Sep-11
                               Apr-11



                                                     Jun-11

                                                                Jul-11




                                                                                           Oct-11



                                                                                                             Dec-11

                                                                                                                      Jan-12

                                                                                                                                Feb-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                     MoM (%) (LHS)                                               YoY (%) (RHS)

        Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research

          Capital Goods


                                                              Capital Goods Index                                                                                                                         %  in Capital Goods Index
             600                                                                                                                                         80        65                                                                                                                                                               60
                                                                                                                                                                                                      39
                     392




                                                                                                                                                         60                                                                                                                                                                         40
                                                      325




                                                                                                                                                         40
                                                                                                                                          309




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10
                                                                                  287




             400                                                                                                                                                                7       6                                        4                                  14                                                       18     20
                               265




                                                                                                             264
                                                                         262




                                                                                                                                261




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10
                                                                                                                      259
                                                                                                    257
                                           249



                                                                249




                                                                                                                                                         20                                                                                                                          1 (2)
                                                                                           225




                                                                                                                                                                  14                                  31          ( 14 )                             ( 2 1)                                                                         0
                                                                                                                                                         -
             200                                                                                                                                         (20)                           (6)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5           ( 7)                    ( 5)                                         2                   -20
                                                                                                                                                         (40)                                                                                                                   ( 16 ) ( 2 )                           ( 2 1)       -40
                                                                                                                                                                             (32)                               (24)                                 (26)
                                                                                                                                                                  Mar-11



                                                                                                                                                                                        May-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-11
                                                                                                                                                                              Apr-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aug-11




               0
                                           May-11
                     Mar-11




                                                                                                    Nov-11




                                                                                                                                          Mar-12
                                                                                                                                Feb-12
                                Apr-11



                                                      Jun-11

                                                                Jul-11

                                                                         Aug-11

                                                                                  Sep-11

                                                                                           Oct-11



                                                                                                             Dec-11

                                                                                                                      Jan-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                     MoM (%) (LHS)                                              YoY (%) (RHS)


        Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research


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                                                                                                                                          Page No: 7
        Money Weekly                                                                                                          18 May 2012                       Aditya Birla Money
         

        Derivatives Corner


        Nifty Grid — % Change in Price
                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                         Long Built Up
                         Short
                                                                <



                         Covering
                                                                  8                                                SUZLON                 SESAGOA

                                                                                                                    STER                                                                 BPCL
                                                                  4
                                                                                          RANBAXY
                                                                                                                                             LT
                                                                                         JINDALSTEL
                                                                                                                                         AMBUJACEM
                                                                                         POWERGRID                                                               CAIRN
                                                                                                                     ITC                 HINDUNILVR                                    KOTAKBANK
                                                                                        HEROMOTOCO                                                                SAIL
                                                                                                                                            SBIN
                                    Weekly Price Change (%)




                                                                                            INFY
                                                                  0                      SUNPHARMA

                                                                                                                                             M&M
                                                                                                                                          DRREDDY
                                                                                                                                          ICICIBANK
                                                                                                                 TATAPOWER
                                                                                          RELIANCE                                           IDFC
                                                                           SIEMENS                                 WIPRO
                                                                                         JPASSOCIAT                                      TATASTEEL                TCS
                                                                             GAIL                                 RPOWER                                                                HCLTECH
                                                                                            ONGC                                             ACC                 HDFC
                                                                             NTPC                                BAJAJ-AUTO
                                                                                            CIPLA                                            PNB
                                                                                                                 BHARTIARTL
                                                                                                                                         RELCAPITAL
                                                                                                                                         HDFCBANK
                                                                                                                                              DLF
                                                                 (4)
                                                                                                                                          RELINFRA
                                                                                                                  AXISBANK
                                                                                                                                           MARUTI
                                                                                                                  HINDALCO
                                                                                                                                           RCOM
                                                                 (8)
                                                                                         TATAMOTORS                                                              BHEL
                                                                <




                           Profit
                           Booking/                                    <               -20                  -10                      0                  10                        20               >    Short Built
                           long                                                                                                                                                                         Up
                                                                                                     Weekly % Change in Open Interest* (Futures)


                                                                 Possible Long Candidates on dips                     Possible Short Candidates                                  Probable Long Candidates


                                                                                                                                  

        Note 1: Summation of three series of future.
        Note 2: Take positions with proper stop losses.



            FII Deri Watch


                          3000                                                                                                                                                                                        5400

                          1500                                                                                                                                                                                        5220
                              0
            ` in Crore




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5040
                         (1500)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4860
                         (3000)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4680
                         (4500)

                         (6000)                                                                                                                                                                                       4500
                                                               22/Mar         29/Mar          3/Mar              12/Apr          19/Apr              26/Apr           3/May              10/May        17/May

                                                                                             FII FUT B/S (LHS)             FII FUT OI CHNG(LHS)               Nifty Spot (RHS)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
        Source: NSE




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                                                                                                                    Page No: 8
         Money Weekly                                                                                 18 May 2012                              Aditya Birla Money


          Nifty Synopsis

        Particulars                        Spot                Future           Prem. / Disc.              Futures OI                             PCR OI                                     PCR VOL                                    VIX (%)
        Current                           4891.45              4888.95                 (2.50)              23755450                                    0.91                                       0.95                                      23.55
        Previous                          4928.9               4931.35                     2.45            22669900                                    0.95                                       1.03                                      22.48
        Change (%)                         -0.76                -0.86                       –                  4.79                                       –                                           –                                     4.76
        Source: NSE

          Outlook                                                                                          Nifty open interest vs Nifty Futures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
              In Index Futures FIIs were net sellers to the tune of ` 1,775
                                                                                                                5300                                                                                                                           30
               Cr with an open interest increase of around ` 2,309.45 Cr
                                                                                                                5200                                                                                                                           25
               as compared to net selling to the tune of ` 1,073 Cr with an                                     5100                                                                                                                           20
               open interest increase of around `1,506.93 Cr as of the                                          5000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               15




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Millions
               previous trading week: Indicating Short build up in Index                                        4900
                                                                                                                4800                                                                                                                           10
               Futures by FIIs.
                                                                                                                4700                                                                                                                           5
              Nifty Futures open interest saw a increase of around 4.79%                                       4600                                                                                                                           0




                                                                                                                                2/May


                                                                                                                                               4/May


                                                                                                                                                              8/May


                                                                                                                                                                                  10/May


                                                                                                                                                                                                  14/May


                                                                                                                                                                                                                 16/May


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   18/May
               and Nifty Futures saw a decrease of around 0.86%:
               Indicating Short build up in Nifty.

         
                                                                                                                                                                      OI                          Nifty Futures
               India VIX saw a increase of around 4.76%: Indicating
               negativenes for the market.
                                                                                                           Source: NSE
              The PCR for Nifty based on open interest is down at 0.91
                                                                                                           Nifty Spot vs PCR
               as compared to 0.95: Indicating negativenes for the market                                                                                                                                                                                        
               and it also indicates that Nifty has entered oversold zone and
                                                                                                            1.60                                                                                                                                   5400
               slight reversal is possible from here.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5300
              High put option open interest build up of around 6.4 mn                                      1.20                                                                                                                                   5200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5100
               and 7.0 mn is seen at 4800 and 4700 strikes respectively:
                                                                                                            0.80                                                                                                                                   5000
               Indicating that they will act as strong supports.                                                                                                                                                                                   4900
                                                                                                            0.40                                                                                                                                   4800
              High call option open interest build up of around 7.0 mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4700
               and 7.1 mn is seen at 5100 and 5200 strikes respectively:                                    0.00                                                                                                                                   4600
               Indicating that they will act as strong resistances.                                                          4/Apr 13/Apr 20/Apr 27/Apr 4/May 11/May 18/May

                                                                                                                                          PCR – OI                                PCR – Vol                               Nifty Spot
              Nifty is trading at a discount of 2-3 points as compared to a
               premium of 2-3 points: Indicating negativenes for the market.                               Source: NSE

                                                                                                           Nifty Options OI built up (Current expiry)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
          Nifty Premium / Discount
                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                         8
             40                                                                                                          7
                                                                                                                         6
             30
                                                                                                                         5
             20
                                                                                                                         4
                                                                                                              Millions




             10                                                                                                          3
              0                                                                                                          2
             -10                                                                                                         1
                                                                                                                         0
             -20
                                                                                                                              4400

                                                                                                                                        4500

                                                                                                                                                   4600

                                                                                                                                                              4700

                                                                                                                                                                           4800

                                                                                                                                                                                           4900

                                                                                                                                                                                                    5000

                                                                                                                                                                                                               5100

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            5200

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5300

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    5400




             -30
                                                          ay




                                                                        ay




                                                                                      ay
                       pr




                                     pr




                                                pr
                   13/A




                                 20/A




                                            27/A




                                                       4/M




                                                                    11/M




                                                                                  18/M




                                                                                                                                                                              Put OI                 Call OI



         Source: NSE
                                                                                                           Source: NSE




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                                                                                           Page No: 9
        Money Weekly                                                                                                                   18 May 2012                                        Aditya Birla Money


            OI Weekly Play

            Sectoral Movement
                                                                                                                               
                 25                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     4

                 20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2

                 15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     -

                 10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     (2)

                 5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (4)

             -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (6)

                 (5)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (8)

             (10)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (10)

             (15)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (12)




                                                                                                            Telecom




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Real Estate
                                                                                                                                                                          Chemicals &
                                                                                                                                               a




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Media
                                                                                                                       Capital Goods
                                                         FMCG
                                    Banking




                                                                                                                                                              Finance
                                                                                etals
                       Auto




                                                                                                                                                      Power
                                               Cement




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Infra




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Shipping
                                                                 Oil & Gas




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Others
                                                                                                    IT




                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sugar
                                                                                        Textiles




                                                                                                                                          Pharm




                                                                                                                                                                                        Fertilizers
                                                                               M




                                                                                                         % Change OI                                % Change Price



        Source: NSE

                 Short build up was seen in: Finance and Infra.
                 Long Unwinding was seen in: Auto and Telecom.
                 In Finance sector Short build up was lead by: HDFC.
                 In Infra sector Short build up was lead by: RELINFRA followed by NCC.
                 In Auto sector Long Unwinding was lead by: TATAMOTORS.
                 In Telecom sector Long Unwinding was lead by: BHARTIARTL.



            Open Interest Gainers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
            Long Buildup                                                                                                                           Short Buildup
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
        Scrip                                    Price             % Price Change                    % OI Change                                   Scrip                                              Price            % Price Change                      % OI Change

        BPCL                                    729.10                          4.02                       63.55                                   BEML                                               467.25                    -11.93                              46.88

        COLPAL                                 1226.40                          3.53                       50.15                                   NCC                                                32.00                     -11.11                              35.36

        CESC                                    274.90                          3.00                       26.86                                   VOLTAS               9.03                          96.60                     -9.59                               25.00

        KOTAKBANK                               552.80                          1.82                       25.86                                   PETRONET                                           125.00                    -10.46                              22.07

        CAIRN                                   319.30                          1.04                       16.86                                   YESBANK                                            312.70                    -5.23                               21.08

        Source: NSE                                                                                                                                Source: NSE

            Open Interest Losers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

            Short Covering                                                                                                                         Long Unwinding
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
        Scrip                                 Price             % Price Change                     % OI Change                                     Scrip                                              Price            % Price Change                      % OI Change

        SUNPHARMA                             584.45                         2.27                        -16.69                                    ONGC                                               250.00                    -1.98                               -16.25

        APOLLOTYRE                             85.05                         2.16                        -16.79                                    GODREJIND                                          236.35                    -3.00                               -17.05

        ANDHRABANK                            106.45                         1.43                        -17.81                                    SIEMENS                                            695.95                    -2.00                               -20.55

        TTKPRESTIG                            3048.95                        5.35                        -18.74                                    NTPC                                               145.40                    -2.51                               -28.04

        DIVISLAB                              913.60                         10.36                       -31.02                                    TATAMTRDVR                                         142.60                    -8.82                               -33.01
        Source: NSE                                                                                                                                Source: NSE

         

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                                                                                                                Page No: 10
         Money Weekly                                                             18 May 2012                Aditya Birla Money
          
          Outlook


         The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis continued to put severe pressure on global equities for the second consecutive week. Global markets were
         down 4-6% for the week while our markets were down 1%, with the rupee depreciating 1.6% against the dollar to 54.5. Markets are worried about a
         disorderly exit of Greece from the Eurozone involving default, bank losses, bank recapitalisations and the negative implications for asset markets.
         To make matters worse, JP Morgan reported $2bn trading losses in its investment portfolio, highlighting the high risks embedded in the global
         financial system through high leverage and lax risk management and the possibility of further blow-ups ahead. Domestically, inflation at above 7%
         also didn’t help matters and combined with high rupee depreciation, reduces room for RBI to cut interest rates meaningfully. Sectorally, auto and
         power showed maximum weakness, with its indices down 5.6% and 2.3% respectively.
         Going ahead, markets are likely to follow global cues. The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is likely to continue to weigh on the markets unless the
         ECB takes some aggressive measures. At home, the government has hinted at taking tough measures like increasing fuel and fertiliser prices. If
         increase in fuel prices are finally implemented and is of a decent magnitude, it would give a much-needed boost to the markets. However,
         continued inaction on the part of the government to raise fuel prices following repeated declarations of its intent to ‘bite the bullet’ would further
         deteriorate investor sentiment about India and make our markets more vulnerable to the effects of negative global developments.



          Event Calendar

         Economy       Monday 21 May                 Tuesday 22 May             Wednesday 23 May             Thursday 24 May              Friday 25 May
         Domestic


         Global        US: Chicago Fed Nat           Euro Zone: Consumer        Euro Zone: Current          China: HSBC Flash            Japan: Natl CPI YoY
                       Activity Index APR (Prior     Confidence MAY A (Exp -    Account nsa MAR (Prior -    China Manufacturing PMI      APR (Exp 0.40%, Prior
                       -0.29)                        20.4, Prior -19.9)         5.9B)                       MAY (Prior 49.3)             0.50%)
                                                     US: Richmond Fed           Euro Zone: Current          Germany: GDP s.a.            Spain: Producer Prices
                                                     Manufact. Index MAY        Account SA MAR (Prior -     (QOQ) 1Q F (Exp 0.50%,       (MoM) APR (Exp 0.0%,
                                                     (Exp 11, Prior 14)         1.3B)                       Prior 0.50%)                 Prior 0.80%)
                                                     US: Existing Home Sales    US: MBA Mortgage            Germany: GDP wda             Spain: Producer Prices
                                                     APR (Exp 4.62M, Prior      Applications (Prior         (YoY) 1Q F (Exp 1.20%,       (YoY) APR (Exp 2.70%,
                                                     4.48M)                     9.20%)                      Prior 1.20%)                 Prior 3.30%)
                                                     US: Existing Home Sales    US: New Home Sales          France: PMI                  US: U. of Michigan
                                                     MoM APR (Exp 3.00%,        APR (Exp 335K, Prior        Manufacturing MAY P          Confidence MAY F (Exp
                                                     Prior -2.60%)              328K)                       (Exp 47, Prior 46.9)         77.8, Prior 77.8)
                                                                                US: New Home Sales          France: PMI Services
                                                                                MoM APR (Exp 2.1%,          MAY P (Exp 45.5, Prior
                                                                                Prior -7.1%)                45.2)
                                                                                Japan: BOJ Target Rate      Euro Zone: PMI
                                                                                (Prior 0.10%)               CompositeMAY A (Exp
                                                                                                            46.5, Prior 46.7)
                                                                                                            Euro Zone: PMI
                                                                                                            Manufacturing MAY A
                                                                                                            (Exp 46.1, Prior 45.9)
                                                                                                            Euro Zone: PMI Services
                                                                                                            MAY A (Exp 47, Prior
                                                                                                            46.9)
                                                                                                            UK: GDP (QoQ) 1Q P
                                                                                                            (Exp -0.20%, Prior -
                                                                                                            0.20%)
                                                                                                            UK: GDP (YoY) 1Q P
                                                                                                            (Exp 0.0%, Prior 0.00%)
                                                                                                            US: Durable Goods
                                                                                                            Orders APR (Exp 0.70%,
                                                                                                            Prior -4.00%)
                                                                                                            US: Initial Jobless Claims
                                                                                                            (Prior 370K)
                                                                                                            US: Continuing Claims
                                                                                                            (Prior 3265K)
        Source: Bloomberg

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                                                                           Page No: 11
         Money Weekly                                                               18 May 2012               Aditya Birla Money
          


                                                                                Research Team
                                      Vivek Mahajan                                                           Hemant Thukral
                                      Head of Research                                                        Head – Derivatives Desk
                                      022-42333522                                                            022-42333483
                                      vivek.mahajan@adityabirla.com                                           hemant.thukral@adityabirla.com



         Fundamental Team
         Avinash Nahata                   Head of Fundamental Desk                   022-42333459                avinash.nahata@adityabirla.com
         Akhil Jain                       Metals & Mining/Mid Caps                   022-42333540                akhil.jain@adityabirla.com
         Sunny Agrawal                    FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps                       022-42333458                sunny.agrawal@adityabirla.com
         Sumit Jatia                      Banking & Finance                          022-42333460                sumit.jatia@adityabirla.com
         Shreyans Mehta                   Construction/Real Estate                   022-42333544                shreyans.m@adityabirla.com
         Dinesh Kumar                     Information Technology/Auto                022-42333531                dinesh.kumar.k@adityabirla.com
         Pradeep Parkar                   Database/Production                        022-42333597                pradeep.parkar@adityabirla.com



         Quantitative Team
         Rizwan Khan                      Technical and Derivative Strategist        022-42333454                rizwan.khan@adityabirla.com
         Jyoti Nangrani                   Sr. Technical Analyst                      022-42333454                jyoti.nangrani@adityabirla.com
         Raghuram                         Technical Analyst                          022-42333537                raghuram.p@adityabirla.com
         Rahul Tendolkar                  Derivatives Analyst                        022-42333532                rahul.tendolkar@adityabirla.com
         Amit Somani                      Derivative Analyst                         022-42333532                amit.somani@adityabirla.com



         Advisory Support
         Indranil Dutta                   Advisory Desk – HNI                        022-42333494                indranil.dutta@adityabirla.com
         Suresh Gardas                    Advisory Desk                              022-42333535                suresh.gardas@adityabirla.com
         Sandeep Pandey                   Advisory Desk                              022-30442104                sandeep.pandey@adityabirla.com


        ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR




                                                                   Aditya Birla Money Limited
                       2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                            Page No: 12
            Money Weekly                                                          18 May 2012                Aditya Birla Money
             

        Disclaimer:

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            solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of
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            The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of
            appearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on
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            expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of Aditya Birla Money Limited
            or any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion,
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            related information and opinions.




         
         




                                                                  Aditya Birla Money Limited
                      2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                           Page No: 13

				
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