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Motorcycles in China

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					INDUSTRY MARKET RESEARCH FOR BUSINESS LEADERS, STRATEGISTS, DECISION MAKERS




NEW                Industry forecasts for 2011 & 2016
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          Motorcycles in China
Study # 2320                                                             May 2008                                                                           $5100

Demand in China to grow                                                                               models. Demand for electric motorcycles
                                                       Motorcycle Demand in China                     powered by li-poly batteries will outpace
13.9% yearly through 2011                                        (44.4 million units, 2011)           lead-acid powered motorcycles in the
The market for motorcycles in China is                                                                forecast period, and become the dominant
                                                       Electric
projected to increase at an annual rate of             Motorcycles                                    battery type in the Chinese market.
13.9 percent, reaching 44.4 million units              64%                                            Advances will be driven by improve-
by 2011. Strong growth in the Chinese                                                                 ments in li-poly technology, which will
motorcycle market will be primarily                                                                   enable these batteries to be used in more
driven by rapidly increasing sales of                                                                 powerful applications. High tech electric
electric motorcycles, which are signifi-                                                              motorcycle engines powered by hydrogen
cantly cheaper than gas motorcycles and                                                               or zinc fuel cells are not expected to
subject to lower levels of government                                                                 achieve significant market penetration in
regulation, making them popular choices                                                               China in the near-term due to a lack of
among urban consumers as an upgrade to                                                                fuel cell reactant refueling infrastructure.
traditional bicycles. At the same time                 Gas-Powered
                                                       Motorcycles
demand for traditional gas motorcycles                 36%                                            Recreation use is minimal
will see steady growth, with sales
especially strong in rural areas, benefiting                                                          Nearly all motorcycles purcased in China
from rising income levels.                                                                            are used by their owners for transporta-
                                                                                                      tion purposes. Advances will be spurred
                                                                                                      by demand for cost-effective vehicles in
Gas motorcycle sales                                    military and police segments and a            both urban and rural areas. Although a
to remain strong                                        mediocre outlook in the transportation        relatively small segment, demand for
                                                        segment. Nevertheless, demand for             recreational and sport motorcycles will
Demand for gas motorcycles in China
                                                        larger motorcycles will see robust growth     see fast growth going forward, driven by
will be driven primarily by increases in
                                                        in the recreation and sport markets,          rising personal income levels and greater
rural income levels as well as ongoing
                                                        although these two markets will remain        popularity of motorcycle activities among
demand for cheap forms of individual
                                                        relatively small in the forecast period.      young people in China. Demand for
transport across the country. Urban
motorcycle bans and other restrictions                                                                electric recreational motorcycles is also
enforced by local governments will                      Electric motorcycles to                       being fueled by the emergence of electric
ensure that the gas motorcycle market                   register stronger gains                       vehicle rentals in tourist spots.
will remain focused on rural areas going
                                                        Sales of electric engine motorcycles will
forward. Motorcycles with engine
                                                        outpace gas motorcycles and become the
                                                                                                      Study coverage
displacements between 50cc and 249cc
                                                        more dominant motorcycle segment in           Motorcycles in China, a new Freedonia
will continue to dominate demand
                                                        China in 2011, due in large part to the       industry study, is available for $5100. It
through 2011, benefiting from their
                                                        cost-effective and environmentally            presents historical demand data for 1996,
suitability for use in a wide range of rural
                                                        friendly characteristics of these vehicles.   2001 and 2006 plus forecasts for 2011
applications. Smaller models will suffer
                                                        Being a comparatively new model,              and 2016 by product, market and region.
from competition from electric motor-
                                                        electric scooters and other more powerful     In addition, this study considers market
cycles, while market gains for larger
                                                        machines dominate the electric market,        environment factors, evaluates market
machines are expected to be modest due
                                                        due to their superior performance             share and profiles 39 competitors.
primarily to declining sales in the
                                                        compared to other electric motorcycle                                           Copyright 2008 The Freedonia Group, Inc.




               Visit our NEW and IMPROVED website at www.freedoniagroup.com
NEW C                   hina Industry          study with ForeCasts For 2011 & 2016

                                               Motorcycles in China
                                                      Recreation                                                               OVERVIEW
           tabLe of Contents                          Sport                                                                    	 1	     China	Motorcycle	Statistics
                                                      Other                                                                    	 2	     Motorcycle	Pricing	Patterns	in	China	
                                                      	 	 	 	 	                                                                	 3	     China	Motorcycle	Demand	by	Engine	Type	
Introduction                                          REGIONaL tRENDS                                                          	 Cht	   Motorcycle	Demand	by	Engine	Type	in	China
                                                      General                                                                  	 4	     Chinese	Foreign	Trade	in	Gas	Motorcycles
                                                      Regional	Demographic	&	Economic	Trends                                   	 5	     Chinese	Foreign	Trade	in	Electric	Motorcycles
ExECutIVE SuMMaRy                                     Population	Patterns                                                      	 6	     World	Gas	Motorcycle	Demand	
	 	
                                                      Economic	Outlook                                                         	 Cht	   World	Gas	Motorcycle	Demand	by	Region,	2006
MaRkEt ENVIRONMENt                                    Motorcycle	Trends
General                                               Regional	Demand	for	Motorcycles
Economic	Overview
                                                                                                                               GaS MOtORCyCLES
                                                      	 Central-North                                                          	 1	     Gas	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
Demographic	Overview                                  	 	 Overview                                                             	 Cht	   Gas	Motorcycle	Demand	by	Displacement	
	 Population	                                         	 	 Motorcycle	Demand	                                                   	 	      	 in	China,	2006
	 Urbanization                                        	 Northeast                                                              	 Cht	   Motorcycle	Demand	by	Model	in	China,	2006
	 Households                                          	 	 Overview                                                             	 2	     Light	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
Currency	Exchange	Rates	                              	 	 Motorcycle	Demand                                                    	 Cht	   Light	Gas	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China,	2006
Consumer	Income	and	Expenditure	Trends                	 Central-East                                                           	 3	     Medium	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
Light	Vehicle	Market	Trends                           	 	 Overview                                                             	 Cht	   Medium	Gas	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China,	2006
	 Light	Vehicle	Supply	&	Demand                       	 	 Motorcycle	Demand	                                                   	 4	     Heavy	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
	 Light	Vehicle	Park                                  	 Central-South                                                          	 Cht	   Heavy	Gas	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
	 The	Shift	from	Motorcycles	to	Automobiles	          	 	 Overview
	 China’s	Transition	to	Light	Vehicle	Dominance	      	 	 Motorcycle	Demand
Public	Vehicle	Service	System	                                                                                                 ELECtRIC MOtORCyCLES
                                                      	 Southwest                                                              	 1	     Electric	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
Environmental	&	Regulatory	Factors                    	 	 Overview
	 The	Motorcycle	Industry	Five-Year	Plan                                                                                       	 Cht	   Electric	Motorcycle	Demand	by	Model	in	China
                                                      	 	 Motorcycle	Demand                                                    	 Cht	   Electric	Motorcycle	Battery	Use	in	China
	 Motorcycle	Emission	Standards                       	 Northwest
	 Gas	Motorcycle	Ban	                                                                                                          	 2	     Electric	Bicycle	Demand	in	China
                                                      	 	 Overview                                                             	 Cht	   Electric	Bicycle	Demand	in	China
	 Regulations	for	Electric	Motorcycles                	 	 Motorcycle	Demand
	 Motorcycle	Safety	                                                                                                           	 3	     Electric	Moped	Demand	in	China
                                                      	                                                                        	 Cht	   Electric	Moped	Demand	in	China
Counterfeit	
                                                      INDuStRy StRuCtuRE                                                       	 4	     Electric	Scooter	&	Other	Demand	in	China
	
                                                      General	                                                                 	 Cht	   Electric	Scooter	&	Other	Demand	in	China
OVERVIEW                                              Industry	Composition                                                     	
Motorcycle	Supply	&	Demand	                           Market	Share
Motorcycle	Park	         			                                                                                                   MaRkEtS
                                                      Product	Development	&	Manufacturing                                      	 1	     Motorcycle	Demand	by	Market	in	China
Pricing	Trends                                        Marketing	&	Distribution
	 Gas	Motorcycle                                                                                                               	 Cht	   Motorcycle	Demand	by	Market	in	China,	2006
                                                      Acquisitions	&	Divestitures                                              	 2	     Transportation	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
	 Electric	Motorcycle	                                Cooperative	Agreements
Technology	Trends                                                                                                              	 Cht	   Transportation	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
                                                      Foreign	Participation	in	Chinese	Market                                  	 3	     Recreation	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
	 The	Shift	from	2-stroke	to	4-stroke
	 Electric	and	Hybrid	Engines	                                                                                                 	 Cht	   Recreation	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
                                                      Company Profiles                                                         	 4	     Sport	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
Foreign	Trade	&	International	Issues		
	 Foreign	Trade                                                                                                                	 Cht	   Sport	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
	 	 Gas	Motorcycles                                                                                                            	 5	     Other	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
                                                                                                                               	 Cht	   Other	Motorcycle	Demand	in	China
	 	 Electric	Motorcycles
	 World	Outlook	for	Gas	Motorcycles
                                                      	    	   List of tabLes & Charts
	 	 	 	                                                                                                                        REGIONaL tRENDS
                                                      	    		                                                                  	 1	     Population	of	China	by	Region
GaS MOtORCyCLES                                       ExECutIVE SuMMaRy
General                                                                                                                        	 2	     Gross	Domestic	Product	of	China	by	Region	
                                                      	   1	 Summary	Table                                                     	 3	     Motorcycle	Demand	by	Region	in	China
	 Gas	Motorcycle	Engine	Displacements
	 Gas	Motorcycle	Models                                                                                                        	 Cht	   Motorcycle	Demand	in	China	by	Region,	2006
	 	 Cruiser                                           MaRkEt ENVIRONMENt                                                       	 4	     Central-North	Region	of	China:	Motorcycle	Demand
	 	 Scooter                                           	 1	     Gross	Domestic	Product	of	China                                 	 Cht	   Central-North	Region	of	China
	 	 Underbone                                         	 2	     Population	of	China                                             	 5	     Northeast	Region	of	China:	Motorcycle	Demand
	 	 Trike	&	Sidecar                                   	 Cht	   Population	of	China	by	Age																										            	 Cht	   Northeast	Region	of	China
Light	Motorcycles                                     	 3	     Households	in	China	by	Region                                   	 6	     Central-East	Region	of	China:	Motorcycle	Demand
Medium	Motorcycles                                    	 4	     Chinese	Currency	Exchange	Rates,	1996-2006	                     	 Cht	   Central-East	Region	of	China
Heavy	Motorcycles                                     	 Cht	   Chinese	Currency	Exchange	Rates,	1996-2006                      	 7	     Central-South	Region	of	China:	
                                                      	 5	     Consumer	Income	&	Expenditure	Patterns	in	China                 	 	      	 Motorcycle	Demand
                                                      	 6	     China	Light	Vehicle	Statistics                                  	 Cht	   Central-South	Region	of	China
ELECtRIC MOtORCyCLES                                  	 Cht	   Light	Vehicle	Density	Comparison,	2006	                         	 8	     Southwest	Region	of	China:	Motorcycle	Demand
General
                                                      	 Cht	   Ratio	of	Motorcycle	to	Passenger	Car	Sales	                     	 Cht	   Southwest	Region	of	China
	 Electric	Motorcycle	Demand	by	Model
                                                      	 	      	 in	Japan,	1950	to	2000                                        	 9	     Northwest	Region	of	China:	Motorcycle	Demand	
	 Electric	Motorcycle	Batteries
                                                      	 Cht	   Relationship	of	GDP	per	Capita	to	Relative	                     	 Cht	   Northwest	Region	of	China
	 	 Lead-Acid	Battery
                                                      	 	      	 Motorcycle	Sales	Dominance	in	Japan,	                         	
	 	 Lithium	Polymer	Battery
                                                      	 	      	 1950	to	1970																																															   INDuStRy StRuCtuRE
	 	 Fuel	Cell
                                                      	 Cht	   Comparison	of	GDP	per	Capita	                                   	 1	     Revenue	Data:	Selected	Motorcycle	
Electric	Bicycles
                                                      	 	      	 &	Motorcycle	Dominance	                                       	 	      	 Companies,	2006
Mopeds
                                                      	 Cht	   China’s	Transition	from	Motorcycles	                            	 Cht	   Motorcycle	Share	by	Company	in	China,	2006
Scooters	and	Others
                                                      	 	      	 to	Light	Vehicles,	1996-2006	                                 	 Cht	   Gas	Motorcycle	Share	by	Company	in	China,	2006
	 	
                                                      	 7	     China	Bus	Statistics	                                           	 Cht	   Electric	Motorcycle	Share	by	Company	
MaRkEtS                                               	 Cht	   Emissions	Standards	Rollout	in	China                            	 	      	 in	China,	2006
General                                               	                                                                        	 2	     Selected	Cooperative	Agreements
Transportation
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INDUSTRY MARKET RESEARCH: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE FOR BUSINESS LEADERS, STRATEGISTS, DECISION MAKERS



                                                                                                                                                                                                                        MARkETS

                                                                                                          Transportation
                                                                                                                 The transportation market covers motorcycles used for individual or
                                                                                                          business transportation, including in commuting, delivery, taxi and other ap-
                                      TABLE III-1                                                         plications. Competitive transportation vehicles in China are segmented into
                         CHINA MOTORCYCLE STATISTICS                                                      mass transit including buses, trains, subways and taxis, and individual vehicles
                                (thousand units)                                                          including bicycles, light vehicles and low-speed vehicles.

                                                                                                                 Transportation motorcycle sales accounted for 97 percent of the total
    Item                                       1996    2001         2006         2011           2016
                                                                                                          motorcycle market in 2006, which is hardly surprising considering that most
                                                                                                          Chinese families cannot afford superior motor vehicles as household transporta-
    Population (million persons)               1223    1275         1313        1352            1392
      motorcycles/000 capita                    18.8    43.1         81.5       141.3           196.8     tion tools at present. Motorcycle demand for transportation in China is projected
                                                                                                          to increase 14.0 percent per year through 2011 to 43.6 million units, with the
    Motorcycles in Use (mil units)
      Gas                                         SaMPLE83 191 274
                                                 23
                                                 16
                                                       55
                                                       43     taBLE 99
                                                            107
                                                                   91
                                                                                                          fasted growth expected in the electric motorcycle segment. Advances will be
                                                                                                                             SaMPLE PaGE
                                                                                                          spurred by demand for cost-effective transportation in both urban and rural areas.
      Electric                                    7    12
                                                 Historical 24 100 175
                                                             data for                                                       Explanations that
    Motorcycle Demand                          8860  9850 23200 44400 55400                                      Factors influencing demand for transportation vehicles include consumer
      Gas                                            9600 12400 and
                                               88501996, 2001 16200 17505                                                support each table’s
                                                                                                          income levels, traffic conditions, traffic regulations and competition from other
      Electric                                   10   250 10800 28200 37895
                                                   2006 as well as                                        modes of transport. Unlike in developed countries, where increasing income
                                                                                                                          data and forecasts
    Net Exports                                  32   142 10270 14975 17225                               levels will lead to transition away from motorcycle as a transportation vehicle
      Gas                                       Freedonia forecasts
                                                 30   100  8575 11475 12670                               to more expensive light vehicles, in China, growth of income levels will make
      Electric                                    2    42  1695  3500  4555
                                                 for 2011 and 2016                                        motorcycles affordable to more people. Considering the comparatively lower
                                                                                                          income levels in China, especially in rural areas, the price for a light vehicle is
    Motorcycle Shipments                       8892    9992       33470        59375         72625
      Gas                                      8880    9700       20975        27675         30175        too high for most individual consumers, although in a few large cities in China,
      Electric                                   12     292       12495        31700         42450        private light vehicles are becoming common to middle-class people.

                                                                                                                 Mass transit, or public transport systems, can serve as a reliable, low
                                                                                                          cost substitute for motorcycle ownership in the urban areas. The improvement
                                                                                                          on the efficiency of mass transit will divert demand from individual vehicles
                                                                                                          -- such as motorcycles -- to some degree. While public bus systems have been
                                                                                                          well established in most Chinese cities, they have often not adequately covered
                                                                                                          suburban and rural regions. Even in cities, mass transit networks are believed
                                                                COMpANY pROfILES                          to be inferior to individual vehicles in terms of convenience and time efficiency,
                                                                                                          especially in large cities, where traffic congestion is a major problem.
      China Jialing Industrial Company Limited
      No. 100 Shuangbei Ziyou
      Shapingba District, Chongqing 400032 CHINA
                                                                                                                                                                                       Copyright 2008 The Freedonia Group, Inc.
      86-23-6519-4095
      http://www.jialing.com.cn

      Jialing Motorcycle America Corporation
      10914 Northwest 33 Street, Suite 100
                                                                                                                                               �����������
      Miami, FL 33172
      305-477-1277          COMPaNy PROFILES                                                               ������������������������������������������
                                                                                                                           CHART VII-1
                        Presented for 39 competitors
      http://www.jialingusa.com                                                                                        ��������������������
                                                                                                                    MOTORCYCLE DEMAND IN CHINA BY REGION, 2006
                            in the Chinese industry
      Sales: ¥3.5 billion [US$443 million] (2006)                                                                               (23.2 million units)
      Employment: 4,150 (2006)
      Key Products: moped, cruising, sport and street motorcycles; scooters; and                                                                                                                                               ������������

      motorcycle engines                                                                                                                                                                                                  ���������
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ��
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              �����
      International Contact: Miss Yang Ling, Sales Manager
                                                                                                                                                                                               ��������������
                                                                                                                                                                                                �����������

             China Jialing Industrial Company Limited, also called China Jialing                                                                                                                                     ��������
                                                                                                                           ��������
                                                                                                                                                                       �������
      Group, is part of the China North Industries Group (NORINCO), which is a                                                                                          �����                         �������
                                                                                                                                                                                                �������
                                                                                                                       ���������                                         ���
                                                                                                                                                                                                          �������
      large government-owned entity involved in numerous industries beyond motor-                                         ��                                                                     �����

      cycle manufacture. China Jialing manufactures and sells motorcycles, scooters,
      engines and other parts. The Company is also involved in the optical product,                                                        �������
                                                                                                                                                               SaMPLE CHaRt
                                                                                                                                                                  �������
                                                                                                                                                                                      ������
                                                                                                                                                                                                            ��������




      automobile, biomedical, software, hotel and real estate industries.                                         �����
                                                                                                                ��������                                        Data illustrated
                                                                                                                                                               �����
                                                                                                                                                                            �������
                                                                                                                                                                                              �����
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    �������



                                                                                                                                                                 with the aid of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ��������
                                                                                                                                                                                                             �����                    ��������
             The Company’s motorcycles and scooters are mainly sold under the                                                  ���������
                                                                                                                                  ���                                                 �����
      JIALING brand name, and include moped, cruising, sport and street models that
      have engines with displacements from 35 to 600 cubic centimeters (cc). Specific
                                                                                                                                                     �������
                                                                                                                                                                 more than 70
                                                                                                                                                                          �������
                                                                                                                                                                    ���������

                                                                                                                                                                            ����
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ��������




      models include the 70-cc JL70-3 scooter, JH70II cruising and JH70 sport mod-                                                                             tables and charts
                                                                                                                                                                            ���
                                                                                                                                                                       �������
                                                                                                                                                                                       �����

                                                                                                                                                                                                      ������� ������

      els; 90-cc JH90-C sport series; 100-cc JH100 sport and JL1008 scooter models;                                                                                              �������
                                                                                                                                                                       �������    �����
      125-cc JH125 sport and cruising series, and JL125 scooter series; 150-cc                                                                           ������
                                                                                                                                                                                   ���
                                                                                                                                                                                       ���������


      JH150H sport and JH150E-B cruising models; 200-cc JH200-2 cruising; 250-cc
      JH250 cruising series; 600-cc JH600 street models; and JL50 scooter vehicles.
                                                                                                                                                                                  ������
      China Jialing also manufactures motorcycle engines.
                                                               Copyright 2008 The Freedonia Group, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                            ���������������������������������
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