Regional Variations in Sectorwise GSDP by EG0uI4

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									Regional Variations in Sectorwise GSDP



                     K.V.Raju and R.S.Deshpande
             Institute for Social and Economic Change
                              Bangalore
          Email: kvraju@isec.ac.in and deshpande@isec.ac.in




                              kvr&rsd/090306                  1
                                     Methodology:
                      ‘hyperbolic’ growth function


• Researchers are increasingly finding that Long Term
growth function is closer to ‘hyperbolic’ than an
‘exponential’ function.

• Difference between exponential and hyperbolic
growth function is due to ‘dynamic inconsistency’



                        kvr&rsd/090306              2
.
   Hyperbolic compounding                     is   a   gradually
    increasing function
       where the degree of compounding is inversely
        proportional to time ‘t’, qualified by degree of
        time preference ‘’, as given.
                If Present valuet =
                  

          Future value / [1 + t](r/) ,,
   Future value = Present valuet [1 + t](r/)
       Where t = time, r = interest rate and  = intensity of time
        preference, varying between 0 and 1, with 0 representing
        low or no time preference and 1 representing high time
        preference.



                              kvr&rsd/090306                          3
        .
   if there is no time preference,
       present value = future value and if time preference is 1,
        hyperbolic growth function is same as exponential growth
        funtion.
       As time t is not exponential expression in ‘hyperbolic’
        growth function, the degree of compounding in ‘hyperbolic’
        is lower than in ‘exponential’ method.
       Thus, the higher the value of , lower is the difference
        between estimated values obtained in the near and distant
        future. The lower the value of , wider is the difference
        between estimated values obtained in the near and distant
        future. Due to hyperbolic function present values fall less
        drastically compared to exponentially estimated values as
        the growth rate is weighted by alpha, the parameter,
        indicating degree of time preference.
                                kvr&rsd/090306                  4
   Alpha value should be near to zero and growth
    rate should be high in the beginning but alpha
    value should be near to one and growth rate
    should be low in the future periods.
   The crux of this method thus is in choosing the
    alpha value. The base line data (1997-98) used for
    the water use projections are from NCIWRD.
   The 1997-98 base line data on water use for
    different uses from NCIWRD are projected for
    2010, 2025 and 2050 using hyperbolic
    compounding. The values of alpha and growth
    rates used in projections are given .

                       kvr&rsd/090306                    5
Water use for Agriculture

Year        t                        r

2010        13              0.012     0.02

2025        28              0.0125    0.025

2050        53              0.013     0.03

Water use for domestic purposes


Year        t                        r

2010        13              0.02      0.02

2025        28              0.03      0.025

2050        53              0.06      0.03

                     kvr&rsd/090306           6
Water use for industrial purposes

Year           t                         r

2010           13                0.025    0.07

2025           28                0.03     0.05

2050           53                0.06     0.04

Water use for other purposes


Year           t                         r

2010           13                0.025    0.07

2025           28                0.03     0.05

2050           53                0.9      0.04

                         kvr&rsd/090306          7
Region-wise Ranking of Major States Based on GSDP Agriculture sector

Region              1994-95   2000-2001   2005-2006    2010-2011   2015-2016   2020-2021   2024-2025

North
 Uttar Pradesh      1         1           1            1           1           1           1
 Punjab             7         6           6            6           6           6           6

 Haryana            12        11          11           11          11          11          12

 Himachal Pradesh   17        17          17           17          17          17          17

West
 Maharashtra        2         2           2            4           4           4           4
 Gujarat            6         12          5            5           5           5           6

 Madhya Pradesh     8         10          7            7           10          10          11

 Rajasthan          10        9           8            8           7           9           9

East
 Bihar              11        8           10           10          9           7           7
 West Bengal        4         5           2            2           2           2           2

 Orissa             14        14          13           14          14          14          14

 Assam              15        15          15           15          15          15          15

 Jharkhand          16        16          14           13          12          12          10

South
 Andhra Pradesh     3         3           3            3           3           3           3
 Karnataka          9         4           9            9           8           8           8

 Tamil Nadu         5         7           12           12          13          13          13

 Kerala             13        13          16   kvr&rsd/090306
                                                        16         16          16          16     8
   GSDP from Primary Sector Based Region-wise Major States Rankings

 Region               1994-95   2000-2001   2005-2006   2010-2011   2015-2016   2020-2021   2024-2025

North
 Uttar Pradesh        1         1           1           1           1           1           1

   Punjab             10        6           8           8           7           7           9

   Haryana            12        12          12          12          12          12          12

   Himachal Pradesh   17        17          17          17          17          17          17

West
 Maharashtra          2         3           4           4           4           4           4

   Gujarat            5         11          5           5           5           5           6

   Madhya Pradesh     6         9           6           6           8           10          11

   Rajasthan          9         10          7           7           6           6           7

East
  Bihar               11        8           10          10          10          9           8

   West Bengal        4         4           3           3           3           3           2

   Orissa             14        13          14          13          13          13          13

   Assam              15        16          15          15          15          15          15

   Jharkhand          16        14          13          11          11          8           5

South
 Andhra Pradesh       3         2           2           2           2           2           3

   Karnataka          8         5           9           9           9           11          10

   Tamil Nadu         7         7           11          14          14          14          14

   Kerala             13        15          16kvr&rsd/090306
                                                        16          16          16          16     9
                    GSDP from Secondary Sector Based Region-wise Major States Rankings
 Region                    1994-95   2000-2001   2005-2006    2010-2011   2015-2016   2020-2021   2024-2025
North
 Uttar Pradesh             1         1           1            1           1           2           2

   Punjab                  10        10          11           12          13          13          13

   Haryana                 11        11          10           10          10          10          10

   Himachal Pradesh        18        17          15           15          16          16          16

   Delhi                   12        12          12           11          11          11          11
West
 Maharashtra               2         2           2            8           8           8           7

   Gujarat                 4         4           3            2           2           1           1

   Madhya Pradesh          9         9           8            7           7           7           6

   Rajasthan               8         8           9            9           9           9           9
East
  Bihar                    17        15          16           17          17          17          17

   West Bengal             6         6           7            5           4           4           4

   Orissa                  15        16          18           19          19          19          19

   Assam                   16        18          17           18          18          18          18

   Jharkhand               14        14          13           13          12          12          12
South
 Andhra Pradesh            5         5           6            6           6           5           5

   Karnataka               7         7           5            3           3           3           3

   Tamil Nadu              3         3           4            4           5           6           8

   Kerala                  13        13          14   kvr&rsd/090306
                                                               14         14          14          15    10
                 GSDP from Tertiary Sector Based Region-wise Major States Rankings
 Region                  1994-95    2000-2001   2005-2006    2010-2011   2015-2016   2020-2021   2024-2025
North
 Uttar Pradesh           2          2           2            1           1           1           1

   Punjab                13         13          13           13          13          13          13

   Haryana               14         14          12           12          11          11          10

   Himachal Pradesh      18         18          18           18          18          18          18

   Delhi                 8          8           8            8           7           6           5
West
 Maharashtra             1          1           1            2           2           2           2

   Gujarat               6          6           7            7           8           8           8

   Madhya Pradesh        10         11          11           11          12          12          12

   Rajasthan             9          9           10           10          10          10          11
East
  Bihar                  12         12          13           13          13          13          13

   West Bengal           5          4           3            3           3           3           3

   Orissa                15         15          15           15          15          15          15

   Assam                 16         16          16           16          16          16          16

   Jharkhand             17         17          17           17          17          17          17
South
 Andhra Pradesh          4          5           5            6           6           7           7

   Karnataka             7          7           6            5           4           4           4

   Tamil Nadu            3          3           4            4           5           5           6

   Kerala                11         10          9    kvr&rsd/090306
                                                              9          9           9           9     11
                 GSDP (all Sectors-Total) Based Rankings of Major States


 Region                   1994-95   2000-2001   2005-2006     2010-2011   2015-2016   2020-2021   2024-2025
North
 Uttar Pradesh            2         2           2             4           6           7           8

   Punjab                 10        10          11            13          13          13          13

   Haryana                13        14          13            12          11          11          11

   Himachal Pradesh       18        18          18            18          18          18          18

   Delhi                  14        11          10            9           8           8           6
West
 Maharashtra              1         1           1             1           1           1           1

   Gujarat                5         6           4             3           3           3           3

   Madhya Pradesh         8         9           9             10          10          10          10

   Rajasthan              9         8           8             8           9           9           9
East
  Bihar                   12        13          14            14          14          14          14

   West Bengal            6         5           3             2           2           2           2

   Orissa                 15        15          15            16          16          16          16

   Assam                  17        17          17            17          17          17          17

   Jharkhand              16        16          16            15          15          15          15
South
 Andhra Pradesh           4         4           5             5           4           5           5

   Karnataka              7         7           7             7           5           4           4

   Tamil Nadu             3         3           6             6           7           6           7

   Kerala                 11        12          12   kvr&rsd/090306
                                                               11         12          12          12   12
         GSDP from agriculture sector
                     0.9
                      1 1.3
           Kerala         1.6
                            2 2.5
                                    3.4
                              2.5
                                2.8
             T.N                  3.23.7
                                        4.2               6.3
South




                                                            6.7
                                                       5.9
                                                       5.9
        Karnataka                                      5.9
                                                       5.9
                                                       5.8               8.4
                                                         6.2
                                                                              9.4
                                                                              9.3
             A.P                                                            99.2
                                                                           8.8 9.6
                                                                     8


                                                 5.1
        Jharkhand                        3.7 4.4
                          1.5  2.53
                           1.7
                           1.8
                            1.9
           Assam             22.1
                               2.3
                               2.3
                                2.5
East




                               2.3
                                2.4
           Orissa               2.5
                                 2.6
                                  2.7
                                2.42.9
                                                                                          12
             W.B                                                                 10.5 11.3                2024-25
                                                                      8.48.9 9.7
                                                                  7.6                                     2020-21
                                                        6.4
                                                       6.2
            Bihar                                    5.9
                                                   5.5                                                    2015-16
                                                 5.2 6.1
                                                    5.7                                                   2010-11
                                                                                                          2005-06
                                                    5.7                                                   2000-01
                                                     5.8
                                                      6.1
        Rajasthan                                      6.2
                                                         6.4                                              1994-95
                                                  5.3 6.2
                                                4.9
                                                  5.35.8
West




              MP                                        6.36.8
                                                 5.2     6.4
                                                              7.2
                                                               7.4
          Gujarat                                               7.6
                                                                  7.8
                                            4.3                    8
                                                          6.6
                                                                   8.1
                                                                     8.3
            Maha                                                      8.5
                                                                       8.6
                                                                        8.8 9.7
                                                                           9.3


                    0.7
                    0.7
              HP    0.7
                    0.7
                    0.6
                    0.6
                    0.6
                                             4.7
                                             4.7
North




         Haryana                              4.8
                                              4.8
                                             4.7
                                             4.6
                                             4.6
                                                               7.3
                                                               7.3
           Punjab                                              7.2
                                                              7.1
                                                             77.1
                                                           6.6
                                                                                               14.8
                                                                                               14.9
              UP                                                                                15
                                                                                                15
                                                                     kvr&rsd/090306            14.9
                                                                                               14.815.5       13
GSDP from Primary Sector

                      1.1
                       1.3
                        1.5
           Kerala          1.9
                             2.32.7 3.6
                               2.5 3.2
                                 2.8 3.6
              T.N
South




                                        4.1           6 6.5
                                                  5.4
                                                  5.4
                                                   5.5
        Karnataka                                  5.5
                                                   5.5 6.1      7.8
             A.P                                                                 10.8 11.7
                                                                                    11.3
                                                                  8.3      9.7 10.3
                                                                             10


        Jharkhand                          4.4   5.1 5.8 6.5
                                2.8 3.8
                                  3
                          1.9
                           22.2
          Assam              2.4
                              2.6
East




                              2.62.9                                                                      2024-25
                                       3.8
                                       3.8
           Orissa                      3.8
                                  3.1 3.7                                                                 2020-21
                                    3.4
                                                                                       11.9
                                                                                    11.3
             W.B                                                            9.9 10.6                      2015-16
                                                                7.9 8.6 9.2
            Bihar                                 5.45.9
                                                5.1
                                                    5.7                                                   2010-11
                                               4.9 5.6
                                                 5.3
                                                                                                          2005-06

                                                      66.2                                                2000-01
                                                       6.1
        Rajasthan                                 5.3 6 6.3
                                                         6.4                                              1994-95
                                                 5.2 5.9
West




                                                   5.5
              MP                                         6.4
                                                           6.8
                                                   5.5 6.6
                                                        6.3 6.9
                                                          6.6 7.3
          Gujarat                             4.7            7 7.6
                                                                7.68.1
                                                                  7.9
            Maha                                                     8.4 9.5
                                                                      8.6 9.2


                    0.6
                    0.7
              HP    0.7
                    0.7
                    0.6
                    0.6
North




                                      3.8
                                       3.9
         Haryana                        4
                                        4
                                        4
                                        4.1
                                                     5.9
                                                     5.9
                                                      6
           Punjab                                    5.9
                                                      6.1
                                                    5.8
                                                                                                13.9
                                                                                                13.9
              UP                                                                                13.9
                                                                                               13.8
                                                                                              13.5 14.4
                                                            kvr&rsd/090306                                  14
GSDP from secondary sector
                              2.1
                              2.2
            Kerala             2.4
                                2.6
                               2.5
                                2.6
                                2.7
                                              5.8
                                                6.4 7.3 8.2
               T.N
 South



                                                                9.9
                                                                 10.1
                                                                   10.7
         Karnataka                                6.8     8.49.2 10.1
                                           5.15.8
                                                  6.8
                                                   77.2
              A.P                              6.2 7.4
                                                  6.7
                                                6.5

                                  3.1
                                  3.2
         Jharkhand             2.43.2
                                 2.8
                      0.5
                      0.6
           Assam       0.7
                       0.8
 East




                        0.9
                         1.1
                     0.3
                     0.4
            Orissa    0.5
                       0.7
                       0.8
                        11.3                                                                             2024-25
                                                   7.1
                                                    7.2
              W.B                                6.67.3
                                               6.2 7.4                                                   2020-21
                                              5.8
             Bihar     0.9
                       11.2                                                                              2015-16
                       0.9
                                                                                                         2010-11
                                             5.5
                                             5.4
         Rajasthan                       4.65.3
                                           4.9                                                           2005-06
                                         4.5
 West




                                                6.1
                                               5.9
                                              5.7                                                        2000-01
               MP                         4.75.5
                                        4.2
                                                                                      16
           Gujarat                                                     11.6   13.9 15.4
                                                                                 14.7                    1994-95
                                                              9.19.8
                                                6.1
                                               5.9
             Maha                             5.7
                                             5.5                                  15.1
                                                                                 14.8      17.2

                                    3.8
                                    3.7
             Delhi              2.93.6
                                  3.4
                                2.9
                                2.8
                          1.8
                          1.7
                         1.5
                        1.3
 North




               HP      1.1
                      0.9
                      0.8
                                     3.8
                                     3.8
          Haryana                   3.7
                                 33.2
                                2.9
                                2.8
                                 33.3
                                  3.1
            Punjab                3.2
                                  3.1
                                                                                     16
                                                                                   15.4 17.3
               UP                                                                    16.1
                                                                                       16.6       19.1
                                                                  kvr&rsd/090306                           15
GSDP from tertiary sector
                                 3.6
                                  3.8
           Kerala                 3.9
                                   4.1
                                   4.2
                                    4.3
                                    4.4
                                             6.4
                                               6.7
              T.N                                7.2
                                                   7.68.5
South



                                                     8
                                                       8.4
                                                        8.6
                                                      8.2
        Karnataka                                  7.7
                                            6.1 7.2
                                          5.5
                                              6.6
                                          5.6
                                            6 6.5
             A.P                                6.9
                                                  7.4
                                                    7.88.4

                    0.6
                    0.7
        Jharkhand    0.8
                     0.9
                      1.1
                       1.2
                        1.5
                     0.8
                     0.9
          Assam       1 1.4
                       1.2
East




                        1.5
                          1.9
                       1.3
                        1.4
           Orissa        1.6
                         1.7
                          1.9
                          22.2
                                                                10.9                                              2024-25
             W.B                                            9.710.6
                                                          9.210.1
                                                       8.4
                                                     7.9                                                          2020-21
                          1.9
                          22.4
            Bihar          2.2
                            2.6
                              33.3                                                                                2015-16
                                                                                                                  2010-11
                              3.1
                               3.3                                                                                2005-06
        Rajasthan               3.5
                                 3.7
                                  3.9
                                    4.4
                                    4.4
                          22.3                                                                                    2000-01
West




              MP            2.63.5
                             3 3.8
                                    4.4                                                                           1994-95
                                          5.6
                                           5.8
          Gujarat                           66.4
                                             6.2
                                              6.4
                                               6.6
                                                                        12.8
                                                                          13.6
            Maha                                                             14.6 16.4
                                                                                15.6
                                                                                   16.4 17.8

                                          6.3
                                         6.2
            Delhi                        6.2
                                         6
                                        5.8
                                        5.8
                                      5.3
                    0.5
                    0.5
              HP    0.6
                    0.6
North




                    0.6
                    0.6
                    0.6
                              3.2
                              3.1
         Haryana             3
                            2.8
                            2.7
                           2.5
                          2.3
                       1.5
                       1.6
           Punjab       1.9
                         2.2
                           2.5
                             2.9
                              3.2
                                                                                                      22.8   25
              UP                                                                15.6   17.8    20.2
                                                                 11.4      14

                                                                       kvr&rsd/090306                             16
GSDP from all sectors-total
             Kerala                    3.3
                                       3.2
                                      3.1
                                        3.4
                                         3.5
                                          3.6
                                           3.8
                                                                 77.2
                                                                   7.4
                T.N                                                 7.6
  South



                                                                      7.8 8.68.8
                                                                         8.2 8.8 9.4
          Karnataka
                                                       5.7     6.8 7.5
                                                                6.9
                                                                          8.3
                                                                          8.4
                                                                          8.4
               A.P                                                        8.3
                                                                          8.3
                                                                          8.4
                                                                        8.1

                              2.1
                               2.2
          Jharkhand            2.2
                                2.3
                              2.1
                               2.2
                       0.9
                        1.1
                         1.2
            Assam         1.4
                           1.62.1
  East




                            1.7
                            1.7
                             1.8
                              2
             Orissa            2.1
                                2.3
                                2.3
                                  2.6
                                                                                   9.7 10.311 11.6
               W.B
                                                                      7.6 8.3 9                                      2024-25
                                2.5
                                 2.6
                                 2.6
              Bihar               2.7
                                  2.83.3                                                                             2020-21
                                                                                                                     2015-16
                                                4.8
                                                4.8
                                                 4.9                                                                 2010-11
          Rajasthan                              5
                                                 55.1
                                                                                                                     2005-06
  West




                                         3.74.2
                                           4
                MP                            4.5
                                                4.8
                                                4.85.2                                                               2000-01
                                                                                   9.6
                                                                                  9.5
            Gujarat                                                  7.3       99.2
                                                                             8.7
                                                                       7.7                                           1994-95
                                                                                                     1414.4
                                                                                                         14.8
              Maha                                                                                          15.2
                                                                                                              15.5
                                                                                                           15.1
                                                                                                             15.4


              Delhi                                   5.5 6.3 7
                                            4.2 4.8
                                      3.1 3.8
                        0.9
                        0.9
                       0.8
                HP     0.8
  North




                       0.8
                      0.7
                      0.7
                                        3.6
                                       3.5
                                       3.5
           Haryana                    3.4
                                     3.3
                                     3.2
                                    3.1
                                  2.8
                                   33.2
             Punjab                   3.4 4
                                        3.64.1
                                                             6.4 7     7.7 8.5
                UP                                                             9.3       10.3 11.3


                                                                     kvr&rsd/090306                                   17
  GSDP from secondary sector-major states


20000000

18000000
                                                      Andhra Pradesh
                                                      Karnataka
16000000                                              Kerala
                                                      Tamil Nadu
14000000
                                                      Assam
12000000                                              Bihar
                                                      Jharkhand
                                                      Orissa
10000000                                              West Bengal

8000000                                               Delhi
                                                      Uttar Pradesh
6000000                                               Punjab
                                                      Haryana
                                                      Himachal Pradesh
4000000
                                                      Madhya Pradesh
2000000                                               Maharashtra
                                                      Rajasthan
      0                                               Goa
                                                      Gujarat
          94

          96

          98

          00

          02

          04

          06

          08

          10

          12

          14

          16

          18

          20

          22

          24
       -19

       -19

       -19

       -20

       -20

       -20

       -20

       -20

       -20

       -20

       -20

       -20

       -20

       -20

       -20

       -20
    93

    95

    97

    99

    01

    03

    05

    07

    09

    11

    13

    15

    17

    19

    21

    23
  19

  19

  19

  19

  20

  20

  20

  20

  20

  20

  20

  20

  20

  20

  20

  20

                                     kvr&rsd/090306                 18
  GSDP from Primary sector-major states

7000000                                                Andhra Pradesh
                                                       Karnataka
                                                       Kerala
6000000                                                Tamil Nadu

                                                       Assam
5000000
                                                       Bihar
                                                       Jharkhand
4000000                                                Orissa
                                                       West Bengal

3000000                                                Delhi
                                                       Uttar Pradesh
                                                       Punjab
2000000
                                                       Haryana
                                                       Himachal Pradesh
1000000
                                                       Goa
                                                       Gujarat
     0                                                 Madhya Pradesh
                                                       Maharashtra
         94

         96

         98

         00

         02

         04

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                                      kvr&rsd/090306              19
Water Use Components
   Boiler and Cooling
   Paper Pulp and Processing
   Beverages and Food processing
   Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals
   Textiles, Jute fiber, Wool Silk etc
   Repair and Services
   Washing, Cleaning, Solvent
                   kvr&rsd/090306         20
kvr&rsd/090306   21
Industrial Consumptive Water use,1995, 2010 and 2025
               Industrial (km3)
             1995          BAU
            baseline Projections
           estimates 2010 2025
 India         7.2     13.8 15.7
 World       156.9    211.0 235.2
Source : Rosengrant etal.,(2002). World Water and Food to 2025, IFPRI, W ashington
Notes : BAU indicates business-as-usual scenario;km3, cubic kilometers




                                          kvr&rsd/090306                             22
 Highest Water Consuming States
   {Water Use in Proportion to the}
Density of      Fixed Capital    Material       Workers
Units           Invested         Consumed       Density

Tamil nadu      Gujarat          Maharashtra    Tamil nadu
Maharashtra     Maharashtra      Gujarat        Maharashtra
Gujarat         TamilNadu        TamilNadu      Gujarat
Andhra          Karnataka        Andhra         West Bengal
Pradesh         Andhra           Pradesh        Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh   Pradesh          Karnataka      Andhra
Karnataka       Uttar Pradesh    Haryana        Pradesh
West Bengal                      UttarPradesh   Karnataka
                                                Haryana
                           kvr&rsd/090306                 23
                    Water      Waste
                   Requirem    Water      Product   Water      Water                 Water
                      ent     Generatio    on in     Req.       Req.    Water Req.    Req.     Water Req.
Category of        m3/tonne      n         1000     Mm3/yr     Mm3/yr    Mm3/yr      Mm3/yr     Mm3/yr
Industry            s/yr/yr   m3/tonne    tonnes     1997       2000      2010        2025       2050



Integrated Iron
and Steel            22          15       119.39    2626.58    3829.1    5837.7      6012.6    12035.1



Smelters            82.5         65        174       11.7      16.76      24.14       32.31      44.35



Petrochemicals
and Refinery         17          13       1.255      21.34     23.47      30.61       37.76      55.61



Chemicals-Causic
Soda                 5.5         1        1459.3     8.03       8.65      10.2        12.67      19.07



                                          24730.               8153.7
Textil and Jute      200        150         2       4863.02      2      19018.78     36701.4   46923.5




                                              kvr&rsd/090306                                       24
                              Waste
                   Water      Water
                  Require    Generati   Product   Water    Water     Water     Water    Water
                   ment        on        on in     Req.     Req.      Req.      Req.     Req.
Category of       m3/tonn    m3/tonn     1000     Mm3/yr   Mm3/yr    Mm3/yr    Mm3/yr   Mm3/yr
Industry          es/yr/yr      e       tonnes     1997     2000      2010      2025     2050



Pharmaceuticals     25         NA       4190      104.75    124      209.25    276.15   429.15


Distillary
(Req.per 1000                           1790.     3939.7   6357.
litres)             22         12         8         6        2       66.31      318     5203.92



Pesticides          6.5         5         86       3.78     6.67      1.99      4.82     8.38


                                                           1259.
Paper and Pulp     200        175       3100       852.5     5        207      10240    19490



General                                           1271.3   1433.
Engineering         2.2       175       5779        8        2       23.66     27.82     55.63



                                                  15282.   24482               69768.   102535.
Total                -          -          -        9       .97     32229.13     77       75



                                               kvr&rsd/090306                                     25
                               Waste
                    Water      Water
                   Require    Generati   Product    Water    Water                 Water     Water
                    ment        on        on in      Req.     Req.    Water Req.    Req.      Req.
Category of        m3/tonn    m3/tonn     1000      Mm3/yr   Mm3/yr    Mm3/yr      Mm3/yr    Mm3/yr
Industry           es/yr/yr      e       tonnes      1997     2000      2010        2025      2050



Cement               4.5        NA         76        418     599.5      985.5      1777.5    3370.5


                                         11155.
Fertilizer          16.7        3.5        3        147.51   220.11    630.96      1105.09   1192.75


                                                             1244.6
Leather Products     30         28       912.5      30.12      5        65.74       93.08    147.83



Rubber               6.6         5       403.24      2.66     3.04       4.3        6.41      9.54

                                                                                             12298.3
Food Processing      6.8        NA       96.45      848.76   991.76   3441.82      9442.76      2

Inorganic
Chemicals           200          4        2.2        96.8    165.44     1600        3346      615.2



Sugar                2.2        0.4       14.5      36.21     46.2      71.17       334.4     636.9



                                                 kvr&rsd/090306                                        26
Work Needed
   Basin wise Industrial Growth
   Water Demand in the Regional
    Perspective
   Choice of Right Methodology




                kvr&rsd/090306     27
           Service sector




kvr&rsd/090306          28
                . National Water Requirements
                   for Domestic &Municipal Use
                                (Quantity in km3 )

Scenario         Year             Year   Year 2050
                 2010             2025
Low Demand –       42               55         90
Total
Surface Water      23               30         48

Ground Water       19               25         42

High Demand –      43               62        111
Total
Surface Water      24               36         65

Ground Water       19               26         46


                 kvr&rsd/090306                      29
TWO PROBLEMS
   first, the availability of data on exact
    water use in different components of
    the service sector is quite fragmentary.
   Second, this is a sector is changing
    extremely rapidly and has location, both
    in peri-urban as well as in rural areas.
    That makes the best sensible
    assumptions fragile.
                  kvr&rsd/090306         30
                                    Normative Approach

   Various std suggested for estimating water requirement
    for human use.
       Gleick (1997) estimated 50 lpcd as the basic human need.
   WHO suggested a target of 200-lpcd in urban areas
   CPHEEO prescribed norms of 70-200 lpcd for urban areas
   Different factors affect water use in rural and urban areas
    especially in service sector.
       include population size of a habitat, economic status, commercial
        and manufacturing activities.





                               kvr&rsd/090306                        31
        Contd…




   The Eighth Five Year Plan (1992-97) adopted the
    following norms :
       a) 125 lpcd for urban areas where piped water supply
        and underground sewerage system are available.
       b) 70 lpcd for urban areas provided with piped water
        supply but without underground sewerage.
       c)4 lpcd for towns with spot-sources/stand posts with
        one standpost for 200 families with a maximum
        walking distance of 10 metres.


                            kvr&rsd/090306                 32
Assessment of Domestic Water Requirement

                      Scenario

Population and rate of urbanization
High Water Requirement
Population as per Visaria & Visaria and high rate of
urbanization
Low Water Requirement
Population as per UN low variant and low rate of
urbanization




                      kvr&rsd/090306                   33
Sl.    Reference                      All India Population in Year
No.
                     2000     2010         2016        2020           2025     2050

  1   Natarajan     1020.5   1183.1                   1301
      (1993)*

  2   United
      Nations –
      1994
      Revision **
      a. Low        1013.5   1156.6                   1249.7         1286.3   1345.9
      variant
      b. Middle     1022     1189                     1327.1         1392     1640
      Variant

      c. High       1030.5   1221.7                   1406.1         1501.5   1980
      Variant
  3   Registrar     997      1162        1263.5
      General of
      India(1996)
      #
  4   Visaria &     995      1146                                    1333     1581
      Visaria
      1966##
                                kvr&rsd/090306                                 34
Norms for Domestic Water Supply at Different Points of Time (in lpcd)



      Population              Assumed Depth of
      Type                   Irrigation or “Delta”

                        Year        Year      Year
                        2010        2025      2050

      Class I Cities    220         220       220


      Other than        150         165       220
      Class I Cities

      Rural             55          70        150




                         kvr&rsd/090306                                 35
                   Bovine Water Requirement

   Bovine population growth rate @ 0.5 %/yr
       while keeping in view the carrying capacity of the system and
        likely stress on natural resources.
   Norms between 18 to 30 lpcd/animal assumed.
   NCIWRD estimated water requirement for bovine population
    as 4.8 km3, 5.2 km3 and 5.9 km3 for the years 2010, 2025
    and 2050 respectively,
      This is included in the total water requirement.




                               kvr&rsd/090306                   36
                          Water Requirement for
                                Power Development

   Consumptive
        4.48 m3/hour/MW or 3.92 Mm3/year/100
        MW
   Non-consumptive
        1.32 m3/hour/MW or 1.15 Mm3/year/100
        MW



                    kvr&rsd/090306            37
    Total Water Requirement (km3/Year)


                2010                    2025               2050


                Low       High          Low        High    Low       High
                Scena     Scenario      Scenari    Scena   Scenari   Scen
                rio                     o          rio     o         ario
1   Thermal     2.81      3.43          7.85       9.59    28.71     35.07


2   Hydropow    15.00     15.00         22.00      22.00   30.00     30.00
    er

3   Nuclear     0.29      0.36          1.13       1.38    3.68      4.50


4   Solar/Win   0.00      0.00          0.01       0.01    0.04      0.04
    d

5   Gas based   0.02      0.02          0.06       0.07    0.18      0.22


    Total       18.1      18.8          31.1       33.1    62.6      69.8




                                  kvr&rsd/090306                             38
Assumptions
  •   Service sector is one of the fastest growing sector in
      Indian economy.
  •   Likely to sustain this growth rate to 2025.
  •   After 2025, likely to decelerate due to high-density in
      the sector.
  •   Urbanisation process likely to be slow.
  •   Main issue in water demand for service sector is the
      quality of water and its use in the peri-urban areas.
  •   Related issue is water treatment in the service sector,
      and specifically for the domestic consumption
      purposes.
  •    Modern technology plants for water treatment.
  •   Service sector largely depends on GW.


                           kvr&rsd/090306                   39
Water use Projections for contract farming in different states of India

                                   Area under                                   Water      use     for   Projections of water use based on compound growth rate
                                   contract              Water      use for     irrigation in Billion    of 5 percent in BCM (or KM3) in
      States                       farming               irrigation    (acre    Cubic Meters        in
                                   (acres)               inches)                2000
                                   in 2000                                      (BCM or KM3)                 2010                 2025                2050

      Karnataka                            20624                    313125               0.03221435         0.0524738             0.109089            0.369415


      Maharashtra                        332956                  15815410                 1.6270918         2.6503611               5.50991           18.65851



      Madhya Pradesh                        2964                     44460               0.00457405         0.0074506             0.015489            0.052452


      Punjab                             247000                   6792500                0.69881344         1.1382935               2.36643           8.013573


      Tamil Nadu                            4520                  124302.8               0.01278829         0.0208308             0.043306            0.146648


      Uttaranchal                           5000                     75000               0.00771601         0.0125686             0.026129            0.088483


      Haryana                               5000                     75000               0.00771601         0.0125686             0.026129            0.088483



      Andra Pradesh                        56810                    852150               0.08766932         0.1428041             0.296879            1.005339


      Orissa                               17784                    489060               0.05031457         0.0819571             0.170383            0.576977


      Rajasthan                            19.76                      296.4              3.0494E-05          4.967E-05            0.000103             0.00035


      West Bengal                            49.4                         741            7.6234E-05         0.0001242             0.000258            0.000874



      India                           692727.76                  24582045                2.52900456         4.1194819             8.564107            29.00111




                                                                                kvr&rsd/090306                                                           40
   All-India Area, Percentage under irrigation of selected agricultural products for which contract farming exists/ can be encouraged 1991-92 to 2004-05



                                                    AREA UNDER CULTIVATION                                                      % COVERAGE UNDER IRRIGATION



 Year          Wheat         Tomato        Chilli       Groundnut       Potato       Cotton        Barley        Safflower       Wheat        Groundnut    Cotton



1991-92          23.26         0.29         0.85             8.67        1.03          7.66          0.95            0.50          83.7            19.1       33.3



1995-96          25.01         0.35         0.88             7.52        1.11          9.04          0.82            0.68          85.8            18.1       35.0



2000-01          25.73         0.46         0.84             6.56        1.22          8.53          0.78            0.42          88.1            17.6       34.3



2001-02          26.34         0.46         0.88             6.24        1.21          9.13          0.67            0.40          87.4            17.3       34.0


                                                                                                                                88.0(P
2002-03          25.20         0.54         0.83             5.94        1.35          7.67          0.70            0.37             )         16.5(P)    33.1(P)



2003-04          26.58         0.54         0.76             6.00        1.28          7.63          0.66            0.35         NA             NA         NA


 2004-
  05*            26.49         NA           NA               6.69        NA            8.92         NA             NA             NA             NA         NA



 2025$           60.57         1.23         1.73           13.67         2.92         17.39          1.50            0.80



 2050$         161.47          3.28         4.62           36.45         7.78         46.35          4.01            2.13




                                                                              kvr&rsd/090306                                                               41
                 Projected use of water for Food processing industries in different states of India
                                 Number of                                                  Total water       Projected water use in billion cubic meters in
                                                              Growth rate in water
States                           Licensed Units                                             requirement per
                                                              use
                                 Under FPO in 2000                                          year              2010               2025                 2050
Andhra Pradesh                   367                          0.065                         0.32113           0.60389            1.55732              7.55238

Assam                            29                           0.037                         0.02538           0.03659            0.06334              0.15810

Bihar                            63                           0.027                         0.05513           0.07192            0.10718              0.20840

Chandigarh                       57                           0.138                         0.04988           0.18157            1.26119              31.89187

Delhi                            320                          0.044                         0.28000           0.42958            0.81636              2.38014

Goa                              168                          0.029                         0.14700           0.19483            0.29729              0.60123

Gujarat                          333                          0.070                         0.29138           0.57059            1.56361              8.39078

Haryana                          172                          0.029                         0.15050           0.20025            0.30734              0.62762

Himachal Pradesh                 106                          0.044                         0.09275           0.14279            0.27276              0.80213


Jammu and Kashmir                88                           0.014                         0.07700           0.08873            0.10977              0.15650

Karnataka                        322                          0.057                         0.28175           0.49113            1.13033              4.53469

Kerala                           448                          0.053                         0.39200           0.65614            1.42091              5.15049

Maharashtra                      1047                         0.040                         0.91613           1.35892            2.45500              6.57883

Madhya Pradesh                   112                          0.029                         0.09800           0.13067            0.20117              0.41297

Orissa                           48                           0.169                         0.04200           0.19988            2.07512              102.52706

Punjab                           363                          0.153                         0.31763           1.32427            11.27370             400.14587

Rajasthan                        122                          0.051                         0.10675           0.17520            0.36839              1.27128

Tamil Nadu                       182                          -0.075                        0.15925           0.07277            0.02248              0.00317

Uttar Pradesh                    541                          0.043                         0.47338           0.72377            1.36836              3.95544

West Bengal                      334                          0.041                         0.29225           0.43535            0.79153              2.14380

Others*                          71                           0.068                         0.06213           0.12045            0.32520              1.70226

India                            5293                         0.040                         4.63138           6.86478            12.38801             33.13547

                                                                                     kvr&rsd/090306                                                               42
         Thank you

Suggestions are most welcome




      kvr&rsd/090306           43

								
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