AR eflection in the Mirror: The Technological Singularity by 4HA1WqpQ


									A Reflection in the Mirror:
   The Technological
  The Technological Singularity
• A concept that has become more recognized as
  we advance in technology
• A concept that deals with the rate of our
  advance in technology
• What we will discuss
  –   What is the Technological Singularity?
  –   Key proponents of the Singularity concept
  –   What technologies are advancing us in this direction?
  –   Why this is not a figment of science fiction
         What is the Technological
• Irving John Good
  “Let an ultra intelligent machine be defined as a
  machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities
  of any man however clever. Since the design of
  machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultra
  intelligent machine could design even better machines;
  there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence
  explosion’, and the intelligence of man would be left far
  behind. Thus the first ultra intelligent machine is the
  last invention that man need ever make.”
       What is the Technological
• Intelligent Machines
• Machines able to learn and evolve
• Machine Intelligence that surpasses mankind’s
  ability to understand.
• Technological Singularity not necessarily a good
  or bad event.
       What is the Technological
• Term first coined by Vernor Vinge
  – Former San Diego State University professor of
    computer science and mathematics
  – Used the term first in his 1993 presentation
• Key proponent of the Singularity concept,
  Raymond Kurzweil.
  – Graduate of computer science at MIT, respected in
    field of artificial intelligence
  – The Law of Accelerating Returns
The Law of Accelerating Returns
• Developed by computer scientist Raymond
• Generalized version of Moore’s Law
• Technological advance increases at an
  exponential rate.
• When a technology encounters a barrier, a new
  technology is created which takes its place.
The Law of Accelerating Returns
• Kurzweil on the Law of Accelerating Returns,
  “An analysis of the history of technology shows that
  technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-
  sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won’t experience 100 years of
  progress in the twenty first century-it will be more like 20,000
  years of progress. The ‘returns,’ such as chip speed and cost-
  effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even
  exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a
  few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human
  intelligence, leading to The Singularity - technological change so
  rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of
  human history.”
        The Coming Singularity
• Two possible paths to the Singularity are described by
  Vernor Vinge
• Modeling human intellect
   – Strong AI vs. Weak AI
   – The Blue Brain Project
      • Project started June 6th, 2005
      • Simulates a section of the cerebral
      • Biologically precise to the molecular level
      • An attempt to reverse engineer the brain,
        not to create a Strong AI system.
       The Coming Singularity
• Intelligence Amplification
  – Direct machine to brain interfaces
     • Ability to restore or amplify body functions
     • Current technology includes cochlear implants, visual
       cortex implants, and prosthetics.
  – BrainGate
     • Created in 2003 by Cyberkinetics and
       developed by Brown University
     • BMI which allows for control of
       mechanical devices using only thoughts.
        The Coming Singularity
• Vinge describes two possible forms by which the
  Singularity could present itself
• “Soft Takeoff”
   – The Singularity event could occur over a long period, possibly
   – Regardless of the time it takes, artificial intelligence would
     surpass human intelligence at some point
• “Hard Takeoff”
   – The Singularity event would happen extremely fast, occurring
     over a matter of weeks or days
   – Machine learning would take place at a rate similar to the
     speed of processes on a typical computer.
  Current Singularity Technology
• Developmental and Epigenetic robotics
   – Field of study combining developmental psychology,
     neurology, cognitive science, and robotics
   – Artificial systems which are able to learn new abilities by
     interacting with their environment
   – These systems have been observed to have the ability to do
     things such as:
       • Understand that certain words represent specific objects
       • Understand the concept of ownership
       • Recognize and discriminate between other machines and its own
         reflection in a mirror
• A unique way to approach the concept of Strong AI
 Current Singularity Technology
• Nanotechnology
  – Field of research which deals with material and its
    composition at the atomic and molecular level
  – Researchers aim to create molecular structures by
    placing every atom in a specific arrangement.
  – Has the potential to be a very powerful method for
    machine to brain interfaces
       The Ethics of a New Era
• What would it be like to live in a post Singularity
• Is it ethical to be moving toward a technological
  singularity, whether we mean to or not?
• If we are striving to obtain advances that might
  one day be a harm to us, should we stop
  researching altogether?
• We must learn to use technology to enhance our
  lives instead of letting technology run ours.

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