A Reflection in the Mirror: The Technological Singularity The Technological Singularity • A concept that has become more recognized as we advance in technology • A concept that deals with the rate of our advance in technology • What we will discuss – What is the Technological Singularity? – Key proponents of the Singularity concept – What technologies are advancing us in this direction? – Why this is not a figment of science fiction What is the Technological Singularity? • Irving John Good “Let an ultra intelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultra intelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion’, and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultra intelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.” What is the Technological Singularity? • Intelligent Machines • Machines able to learn and evolve • Machine Intelligence that surpasses mankind’s ability to understand. • Technological Singularity not necessarily a good or bad event. What is the Technological Singularity? • Term first coined by Vernor Vinge – Former San Diego State University professor of computer science and mathematics – Used the term first in his 1993 presentation • Key proponent of the Singularity concept, Raymond Kurzweil. – Graduate of computer science at MIT, respected in field of artificial intelligence – The Law of Accelerating Returns The Law of Accelerating Returns • Developed by computer scientist Raymond Kurzweil • Generalized version of Moore’s Law • Technological advance increases at an exponential rate. • When a technology encounters a barrier, a new technology is created which takes its place. The Law of Accelerating Returns • Kurzweil on the Law of Accelerating Returns, “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common- sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the twenty first century-it will be more like 20,000 years of progress. The ‘returns,’ such as chip speed and cost- effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity - technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.” The Coming Singularity • Two possible paths to the Singularity are described by Vernor Vinge • Modeling human intellect – Strong AI vs. Weak AI – The Blue Brain Project • Project started June 6th, 2005 • Simulates a section of the cerebral cortex • Biologically precise to the molecular level • An attempt to reverse engineer the brain, not to create a Strong AI system. The Coming Singularity • Intelligence Amplification – Direct machine to brain interfaces • Ability to restore or amplify body functions • Current technology includes cochlear implants, visual cortex implants, and prosthetics. – BrainGate • Created in 2003 by Cyberkinetics and developed by Brown University • BMI which allows for control of mechanical devices using only thoughts. The Coming Singularity • Vinge describes two possible forms by which the Singularity could present itself • “Soft Takeoff” – The Singularity event could occur over a long period, possibly decades. – Regardless of the time it takes, artificial intelligence would surpass human intelligence at some point • “Hard Takeoff” – The Singularity event would happen extremely fast, occurring over a matter of weeks or days – Machine learning would take place at a rate similar to the speed of processes on a typical computer. Current Singularity Technology • Developmental and Epigenetic robotics – Field of study combining developmental psychology, neurology, cognitive science, and robotics – Artificial systems which are able to learn new abilities by interacting with their environment – These systems have been observed to have the ability to do things such as: • Understand that certain words represent specific objects • Understand the concept of ownership • Recognize and discriminate between other machines and its own reflection in a mirror • A unique way to approach the concept of Strong AI Current Singularity Technology • Nanotechnology – Field of research which deals with material and its composition at the atomic and molecular level – Researchers aim to create molecular structures by placing every atom in a specific arrangement. – Has the potential to be a very powerful method for machine to brain interfaces The Ethics of a New Era • What would it be like to live in a post Singularity society? • Is it ethical to be moving toward a technological singularity, whether we mean to or not? • If we are striving to obtain advances that might one day be a harm to us, should we stop researching altogether? • We must learn to use technology to enhance our lives instead of letting technology run ours.
Pages to are hidden for
"AR eflection in the Mirror: The Technological Singularity"Please download to view full document