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					Incremental and Visionary User Scenarios

Theme

Citizen-centric scenario, by 2015 (incremental) and by 2025 (visionary).

Functional descriptions

 The digital world is complemented by sensors and actuators, allowing interactions
  with the real world.

      Cars have "traffic" sensors and perform car-to-car communication. By 2015, only
       a small set of cars will be equipped (with a better penetration in public
       transportation vehicles), but by 2025, it will be most cars.

      Public transportation records passengers' use and dynamically adapts the
       transport capacity.

      Medical sensors are monitoring health status. The sensors are on the person (body
       area network of sensors) or in the environment (home). Pill dispensers, toilet
       sensors, sensors for chronic diseases (such as diabetes), … are the most realistic
       functions by 2015. Smart clothes become a reality by 2025.

      Assisted living sensors allow elderly to stay home longer. By 2015, smart houses
       slightly take off. By 2025, most white goods have sensors (e.g. smart fridges) and
       perform basic reporting functions.

      By 2015, location sensors are widespread but little services use them.

 By 2015, users get content and services based on their profiles and habits.

 Virtual worlds will be widely spread and interconnected with the physical world, by
  2015.

   Mainly used for games, online social communities, learning, …

   By 2025, emotions and feelings…

 Energy efficiency becomes a concern

   Power management starts with smart meters by 2015 in small scale (more
    widespread by 2025), allowing for fine-grain power management at a lower cost.

   Users are wary of buying IT equipment with low energy footprint

 High bandwidth communication networks are available in 90% of the EU (that is,
  most citizens online)

 Mobile devices are "always-on" and have become the main interface to the Internet.

 By 2015, users get personalised content and are member of one of several virtual
  worlds. They consume and also create content and gets revenues from this.
Scenario planning – assumptions and vignette                                  7/27/2012

 Gaming becomes an important content, and is part of the virtual worlds to which users
  adhere and play at the same time.

 By 2025, Immersive environments will start to become available. Users will navigate
  in 3D in the Internet and this will become the usual interface to Internet. Virtual and
  real worlds will be so seamlessly interconnected that the transition from one to other is
  transparent. The Internet includes emotions and feelings. Wearable devices become
  popular interfaces to the immersive environments. Users transfer their avatar
  seamlessly between virtual worlds and with real world.

 Social relationships extend into the Internet. Users watch the same movie and share
  emotions about the movie while being at separate physical locations.

 Natural interfaces emerge as computing power become high even on low-end devices.

   Text-to-speech, voice recognition, … are the trends

   3D navigation, emotions, feelings, immersive environments by 2025

 High-Definition TV has become commonplace by 2015, UHD-TV or 3D TV are still
  in the labs.

 Video on demand services

 Social networks have a world-wide outreach, with more than 40% actively using
  social networks, displacing the thinking about communities to digital communities.

 By 2020, IT specialist providers implement key parts of business processes in an
  Internet of services. Services are described in such a way that it becomes easy to
  discover and use then over the Web. There might be standard representations of SLAs
  and protocols for their negotiation, addressing both functional and non-functional
  characteristics of offered services. Consumers will become prosumers of their own
  services. These services might be short-living, without any guarantees but very useful
  for consumers.

 Semantics (web 3.0) technologies start to be used in small-scale services

 By 2015, no world-wide identity services yet, but it is recognised as a need for world-
  wide delivery of services.

 After an initial period of investment and competition in IT utilities (after 2015), a
  combination of Moore’s law and the realisation that computation and storage are an
  undifferentiated commodity drive prices down in a race to the bottom. Integrated ICT
  service providers fail to invest to meet the Enterprise grade-SLA’s that business
  customers expect, yet business IT users under competitive pressure can no longer
  afford to make the private investments necessary to ensure business ICT continuity,
  leading to dissatisfaction.

 Concerns over information security in many industries or countries prevent in using
  shared services. For instance, a European enterprise is subject to a more complex and
  restrictive regulatory environment than US or Asian industry and moves slower to take
  up service oriented IT making Europe less competitive.
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Scenario planning – assumptions and vignette                                7/27/2012

 Alternative peer-to-peer market for ICT capacity emerges by 2020, the sales of
  capacity to third parties on a spot market take off. This even extends to private
  individuals selling on capacity from PC’s in their homes. This raises a number of trust
  and security issues across domains:

        In a world of shared capacity, we are unable to ensure every user gets 100%
         availability (no ‘brownouts’, and no unpredictability). In a global market for
         service centric ICT, how to ensure interoperability and service level
         management to meet customer SLA expectations when services are aggregated
         from different IT and Network service providers?

        In a world of shared service infrastructure, how to ensure that ICT users get the
         same levels of confidence in information protection in shared infrastructure
         that they had when they owned it themselves? This applies to both the
         trustworthiness of the service provider and the separation of individual
         customers’ information.

        From the ICT Infrastructure perspective, the Future Internet has a massive
         proliferation of nomadic, mobile and wireless devices, together with virtual
         entities such as virtual private networks, overlay networks and cloud
         computing. It will no longer be possible to define exact boundaries for their
         security or to armour-plate every component. Instead, entities will require a
         capability for managing and negotiating their trust relationships at a more
         localised level, and helping users make informed decisions about which
         information, networks, services, systems, organisations and other users with
         which they interact are trustworthy

 Deeper integration of systems and information between partners accelerates business
  interaction. The global reach means that a business function can be sourced from
  anywhere in the world. Global competition opens up interesting new regulatory issues.

        Services will “become tradable and be composed, offered by different
         providers’ services ,and will be offered, delivered, and executed automatically,
         and supported with the help of IT”. It is plausible that events may not go the
         way that many anticipate, for example: repeated failures in service platforms
         sensitive information leakage inappropriately between business process
         partners undermine confidence in deep integration of IT systems between
         partners?

        A trading scandal emerges involving a cartel of service providers in which a
         services trading exchange is complicit in sharing information? A single
         monopoly global trading exchange for services emerges that dominates the
         way in which services are bought and sold (c.f. Google, Facebook, Amazon?)

        Service “Phishing” in the internet of services by ‘rogue’ service providers with
         the intent of defrauding legitimate businesses. Malicious services exploit their
         access to information in order to tamper with the business they are integrated
         with.

        Inability of citizens to identify genuine and worthwhile service providers from
         all the noise (service spam).
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Scenario planning – assumptions and vignette                                7/27/2012

 In the 2015 information-centric Future Internet, the opportunity to exploit vast
  quantities of information and results in new information service business that analyse,
  trade, and deliver insight across the entire gamut of business and personal life. Such
  comprehensive information gathering facilitates customisation and personalisation of
  every possible internet service. New intermediaries emerge that trade in and extract
  new value from this data and information. The information value chain develops in
  interesting new ways as data gatherers, traders, analysers, users form an ecosystem of
  information services.

        Information is routinely acquired and aggregated in real, including the digital
         ‘trail’ left by people, business records of every kind including financial
         records, transactions, documents, customer information, information captured
         and managed on our behalf by public sector and quasi public sector
         organisations such as health care, social services, and tax, user generated
         content created by and knowingly published by citizens to their own social
         networks and to the world at large, information ‘sensed’ from the physical
         world including security cameras, traffic sensors, cameras, proximity sensors,
         etc.

        Above all, citizens expect to be in control of their digital existence. With that
         in mind, regulatory authorities expect information providers and users to
         behave responsibly with clear guidelines on information stewardship. Most of
         the concerns here come under the area of information stewardship, which will
         be a significant issue for many aspect of the Future Internet; For example, as
         information is gathered explicitly (internet of things, future media internet) or
         implicitly (future networks) about what citizens and business are doing and
         how they are behaving: Privacy – Appropriate use - User-centricity.

 By 2015, after years of information breaches, inappropriate uses of personal
  information by companies, lack of transparency with multi-party services and almost
  everyone having been effected in some way by identity theft, citizen confidence in
  others holding their personal information or acting as information mediators on their
  behalf has reached an all time low.

      Virtualisation to provide separation of concerns, and trusted computing
       technologies to provide remote attestation and guarantees, allow multiple virtual
       appliances to safely coexist in one physical form factor.

      Privacy enhancement is provided by the device taking the responsibility to
       automatically keep the user anonymous unless instructed otherwise

      Genuine information is something that users reveal only to service providers that
       have earned their trust, how can we

      Businesses no longer buy clients relying on their employees to give up control of
       a virtual business “desktop” to corporate IT. And the flexibility to create new
       virtual appliances allows businesses the same safety that consumers enjoy to try
       new service offerings without putting what they already have at risk.

 By 2015, our total dependence on ICT has made the online world the number one area
  of activity for organised crime, state sponsored espionage and activist groups.
                                               4
Scenario planning – assumptions and vignette                                  7/27/2012

        A number of considerations emerge: future-proofing against known and
         currently unknown threats and vulnerabilities, assessing and managing risks,
         assessing and managing liabilities, accountability for actions and decisions that
         are under obligations, managing information rights, managing oversight and
         control, including at a state level, security-aware languages, automated security
         configuration driven by end-user’s needs, evolutionary and predictive threat
         models, self-organising and self-healing security mechanisms , …

Economic scene plot

The EU has entered a period of recession and 2011 sees a slow recovery thanks to the
recovery plans put into action by 2010. By 2015, the economy is back to the GDP growth
rate of 2007 but with a slightly higher unemployment.

The purchase power decreased as the prices for energy have gone high (oil regaining high
price, electricity more expensive due to phase-out of power plants and the higher costs of
building cleaner new plants).

By 2015, the carbon footprint has become an economic incentive through premium (for
low-emitting devices) or taxes (for higher-emitting devices). Green issues in IT (energy,
sustainability) encourage centralisation in IT capacity for green-economies of scale.

ICT is provided as a service to business users from small to large as relentless pressure to
drive down costs encourages business users to stop buying hardware. It also allows to
flexibly adapt to changing needs, e.g., load peaks at certain points of time.

Grids (computation on demand) go mainstream for industry enabling SMEs to compete
in areas where previously a large computer was required.

Although much can now be done remotely online, there is still a need for transportation.
The number of cars has however hit a peak, after years of raise even in the downturn, due
to much higher prices for cars and their use (congestion charges, fuel used).




                                                5
Scenario planning – assumptions and vignette                                    7/27/2012

Scenario sample: "Anywhere, AboveWere!"

By 2025, Mohammed, a publisher, goes               The mobile device becomes the main
on holiday with his portable device                interface to the Internet, and provides
AboveWere and on his way to the airport            seamless connectivity (network-, format-
receives an incoming call from his boss,           , device- independent) and proper
Laila.                                             handover across these dimensions. The
                                                   weredevices are in clothes, glasses or
                                                   even the plain old mobile phone.



Laila sends a prototype of the new 3D              The 3D book is both subject and object.
book and both collaborate to put the               Not necessarily the digital transposition
final touch to the book which he                   of the linear book, it is also the object of
visualised on his AboveWere                        collaboration in 3D. 3D immersion
                                                   becomes common and a natural way of
                                                   collaboration, dynamically adapting to
                                                   the connectivity conditions. Virtual and
                                                   Real worlds are seamlessly mixed and
                                                   interconnected.

and applying corrections immediately.              Natural interfaces (voice, gesture, …)
                                                   are common.


They also take this opportunity to do
some small talk and exchange their                 Emotions are       fully   captured     and
excitement about the project through a             exchanged.
proper translation by the AboveWere.
They can both experience the warmth of
their skins.

In this, Mohammed almost forgot the                Personalisation of services (e.g. linking
bus stop but was timely reminded by an             various sources of information such as
avatar appearing in his video discussion.          agenda, flight schedule, etc.) and context
                                                   awareness (such as geolocation, bus line,
                                                   …)
It has been a long day:

The different services called upon and
                                                   Dynamic composition of services with
assembled were not yet fully perfect in
                                                   different levels of SLA, with examples
order to compose the book, some stories
                                                   of nascent service trading scandal due to
of the book still appear blurry and
                                                   service phishing.
incoherently linked between themselves.




                                               6
Scenario planning – assumptions and vignette                                   7/27/2012

He has also had to solve the issue of              Trustworthy delivery services in the
wrong billing for services used by a               cloud or prevention against identity
company sharing the same physical                  impersonation have not yet been fully
space.                                             implemented.

It's time to go on holiday indeed!

In the airport, Mohammed enters into a             Social interactions are realised through
multiplayer gaming and realise that two            virtual worlds which could also enable
other players are also nearby so he                relationships in real world.
joined, as he starts to miss the physical
contact after so many experiences of
virtual sitting for watching movies with
his mother and sharing their comments.

The game is moved to the game pod in               The game session is transferred
the airport without losing interactions            seamlessly, across devices, without
with the other players around the world.           losing interactivity.

A last view on Mohammed's mother's                 Personal monitoring        and sensing
medical vital signs as she wanted him to           devices,    preserving     privacy and
be informed at all times, a last check             confidentiality to data.
with the GP and it's time to enter the
plane.




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