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Oil Market Outlook to 2010 by HC12072710490

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									  And a lens
   to watch
them through:
                Economic Growth          China                  India




    The
Environment
    and
Sustainable       Russia          OPEC and Saudi Arabia         Iraq
Development                       Do they control production?
           World Oil Demand Growth and Real GDP Growth Rates

        6.0%
                                Real GDP
                                 Growth        Oil
        5.0%                                 Demand
                                             Growth

        4.0%
 Annual
Average
        3.0%
Percent
Change
        2.0%


        1.0%


        0.0%
               2001    2002     2003       2004   2005     2006
                                                                                                   .10 .08 .07 .06 .06
            .58
      .39                                                                .20 .19 .17                                           .92
                  .37 .34
.15                                                              .00
                                                                                       .13             Eurasia
                                                                                                                        .41          .55 .55
                                                                          Europe                                 .28
North America
                                                                                                 .33 .29 .24
                                                                                       .17 .20
                                                                                                                         China               .15
                                                                                                                                                          .10 .05
                                                                                         Middle East
                                                                                                                                      -.04
                                                                                                                                                   -.16
                                                                   .08 .04 .05 .06 .05                         .35
                            .21                                                                                      .30 .31              OECD
                                  .11 .12                                                            .21 .27
                                                                              Africa                                                    Asia Pacific
              -.02
                     -.11                                2.53
                                                                                                       Non-OECD
                  Latin America                                 2.01                                   Asia Pacific
  2002                                            1.64                 1.87                              (excl. China)
  2003
  2004                                      .83

  2005
  2006
                                              Total World
      9,000


                                                         6.57%
      8,000                                      7.86%



      7,000
                                        8.32%
kbd                       16.95%

      6,000
                 9.62%



      5,000



      4,000
          2002     2003        2004   2005      2006      2007
                                                                                                                            10.9
                                                                                                                     10.2
                                                                                                             9.4 9.7

                                                                                                      6.5
                                    4.7
                 3.4 3.5 3.8
           2.8
                                                              6.9 6.4 6.3 6.6
                                                                                 5.6

                  Canada                                                                             Russia and others
                                                                                                                      4.3                        0.5
7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4
                7.2                                                                                            2.9            0.03 0.05 0.07 0.3
                                                              Western Europe                     1.9 2.1                        Sakhalin Area
                                                                                          1.3
                                                              6.2                                                            (included in Russia)
                                                        5.5
                                                4.7 5.0
                                          4.0                                                  Caspian Area
                                                                                                                                                   8.3
                                                                                                                                   7.8 7.9 8.1 8.1
  United States
                                                                           8.5                                     33.1
                                            North Africa
                                                                     6.9
                                                           5.4 5.8                                          30.5
                             12.4                    4.3                                             28.8
                      11.6                                                                    27.7
     10.4 10.5 10.9
                                                                                       26.5
                                                                                                                                        Far East
                                                           West Africa
                                                       2000
                                                       2004
                                                       2005
                                                       2007
        Latin America                                  2010
                                                                                          Middle East
         Asia Pacific Refined Products Demand and Refinery Crude Capacity


                                         5 mbd of new capacity
        35.0                                needed by 2015
                                         (equivalent to 15 large
                                               refineries)
        30.0
                       Refinery
        25.0            CDU
Million                Capacity
Barrels 20.0
    per
                                              Demand*
   Day 15.0

        10.0

         5.0

         0.0
           1990      1995         2000            2005             2010   2015

								
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