Technical Debt Ceiling

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					          “Raising Your Technical Debt Ceiling
                       Or NOT”
                                          Michael Mah
CQAA Webcast                           Managing Partner
December 6, 2011                    QSM Associates, Inc.
                                   75 South Church Street
                                      Pittsfield, MA 01201
                                         413-499-0988
                                       Fax 413-447-7322
                               e-mail: michael.mah@qsma.com
                                  Website: www.qsma.com
                                Blog: www.optimalfriction.com
       Rayleigh Curve Defect Rate




(#2)
                                Rayleigh Curve Defect Rate

                                   Discovered Defects
                                      per reporting
                                     period at time t
       Defect Discovery Rate




                                                             Area under the curve is
                                                                   equal to the
                                                            Total Discovered Defects
                                                                  on the project




                               Elapsed Calendar Time    t

(#3)
  Defects and Sources of Technical Debt




(#4)
  Defects and Sources of Technical Debt




(#5)
  Defects and Sources of Technical Debt




(#6)
       Case Study #1




(#7)
       Case Study #1




(#8)
       Case Study #1




(#9)
        Project Sketch – Core Metrics




(#10)
                        Trendline Assessment –
                            Defects/Quality

                                               Defects During Test
                                                                                                                  10,000




                                                                                                                  1,000




                                                                                                                           Errors (SysInt-Del)
                                                                                              Rel 8.0


                                             Rel 6.0
                                                                                                 Rel 6.5
                                                                                   Rel 7.0
                                                                   Rel 7.5
                                 Rel 5.0
                                                                                                                  100




              Far Fewer Defects: 50% - 66% Below Industry
                                                                                                                   10
        100                                                                                                    1,000
                                             Effective SLOC (thousands)



   Business Sy stems   Av ionic Sy stems       Command & Control     Microcode Sy stems      Process Control            QSM 2005 Business
   Av g. Line Sty le   1 Sigma Line Sty le
(#11)
        Trendline Assessment – Build Phase
                     Schedule

                                             Main Build Phase Duration vs Size
                                                                                                                          100




                                                                                                                                Time (Months)
                                                                                                                          10
                                                                                               Rel 8.0       Rel 6.5
                                Rel 5.0


                                                                                              Rel 7.0
                                                   Rel 6.0
                                                                       Rel 7.5




              Schedules are Half Industry
                                                                                                                           1
        100                                                                                                            1,000
                                                 Effective SLOC (thousands)



   Business Sy stems   Av ionic Sy stems           Command & Control     Microcode Sy stems        Process Control             QSM 2005 Business
   Av g. Line Sty le   1 Sigma Line Sty le
(#12)
               Follett vs. Industry Average

                         Industry       Current       Delta
                         Average      Performance



        Project Cost   $3.5 Million   $2.2 Million   -$1.3M


        Schedule       12.6 months    7.8 months     -4.8 mos



        QA Defects         242            121         -50%


        Staffing           35             35           n/a



(#13)
        Case Study #2




(#14)
(#15)
(#16)
(#17)
(#18)
(#19)
        Benchmark Assessment — Staffing

                                               Average Staff
                                                                                                             1,000




                  Smaller Teams                                                                              100




                                                                                                                     Headcount
                                                                                                             10




                                                                                                            1
           1                           10                              100                              1,000
                                       New + Modified Size (thousands)


               All Systems   Special Project       QSM 2008 Business         Avg. Line Style   1 Sigma Line Style
(#20)
        Benchmark Assessment — Schedule

                                               Time-to-Market
                                                                                                             100




                  Faster Schedules




                                                                                                                    Months
                                                                                                             10




                                                                                                            1
           1                           10                              100                              1,000
                                       New + Modified Size (thousands)


               All Systems   Special Project       QSM 2008 Business         Avg. Line Style   1 Sigma Line Style
(#21)
        Benchmark Assessment – Quality

                                              Bugs During QA
                                                                                                            10,000



               Fewer Defects
                                                                                                            1,000




                                                                                                                     Defects
                                                                                                            100




                                                                                                            10




                                                                                                           1
          1                           10                              100                              1,000
                                      New + Modified Size (thousands)


              All Systems   Special Project       QSM 2008 Business         Avg. Line Style   1 Sigma Line Style
(#22)
        Monstrous Technical Debt Project




(#23)
                Monstrous Technical Debt Project


        INCEP
                                                    Avg Staff (people)
        ELAB                                    <Overall September Baseline>
        CONST                            0        1      3        4     5    6      8      9      10           120
        TRANS




                                                                                                               100




                                                                                                               80




                                                                                                                     Avg Staff (people)
                                                                                                               60




                                                                                                               40




                                                                                                               20




                                                                                                               0
                           1      3      5       7      9      11     13     15     17         19      21
                     Apr    Jun    Aug    Oct     Dec    Feb    Apr    Jun    Aug    Oct        Dec     Feb
                     '03                                 '04                                             '05

(#24)
                  Monstrous Technical Debt Project

                                                                Gantt Chart By Sub-Phase
                                                                  <July Baseline Plan>
                                                      0                  2            3   5    6   7 10        11

                             Inception


                         Elaboration 1


                         Elaboration 2


                         Elaboration 3


              Construction 1 - Pre-FIT




                                                                                                                    Sub-Phases
                  Construction 2 - FIT


               Construction 3 - UAT 1


               Construction 4 - UAT 2


        Construction 5 - Prod DataLoad


                       Production Pilot


                      Post Production


                                                 1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8     9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
                                          Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
                                          '03                                  '04
(#25)
                Defects vs. Industry Average

                                                                        Defects Found
                                        0           1                   3              4            5            6           78          9            10
                                                                                                         5              6         7 8           9              10 350




                                                                                                                                                                   300




                                                                                                                                                                   250




                                                                                                                                                                   200




                                                                                                                                                                         Defects
                                                                                                                                                                   150




                                                                                                                                                                   100




                                                                                                                                                                   50




                                                                                                                                                                   0
                 6       12      18          24          30      36          42      48      54          60           66       72        78      84         90
        05/17   06/28   08/09   09/20       11/01       12/13   01/24       03/06   04/17   05/29       07/10        08/21    10/02     11/13   12/25      02/05
         '03                                                     '04                                                                                        '05




(#26)            Current Plan                  Actuals                         Green Control Bound              Yellow Control Bound                Project: CEP
   Forecast to Complete (4 Month Delay)


             Nov 19




(#27)
           Comparison to Industry Average

                         Industry       Offshore              Delta
                         Average        Average



        Project Cost   $3.5 Million   $3.2 Million          -$0.3M


        Schedule       12.6 months    9.6 months            -3.0 mos


        QA Defects         242            677               +280%


        Staffing           35             50                   +15


                                         * Normalized to same project size
(#28)
         Some
        Practical
         Advice

(#29)
        Build a Little Less




(#30)
        Take a Little More Time




(#31)
        Get Smart People




(#32)
        Use Small A-Teams




(#33)
        Give Them the Best Tools




(#34)
(#35)
(#36)
(#37)
(#38)
(#39)
(#40)
(#41)
(#42)
(#43)
(#44)
        www.qsma.com




(#45)
                              SLIM-
                           MasterPlan:
                           Incremental
                          Development &
                              Project
                          SLIM-Control:
                           Aggregation
                             Variance
                             Analysis
                                &
                             Adaptive
            SLIM-          Forecasting    SLIM-Metrics:
           Estimate:                         Industry
        Size, Schedule,                   Benchmarking
        Cost & Quality                      & Process
          Estimating                       Improvement
                    SLIM-DataManager
             Software Project Metrics Repository

(#48)                     footer
             For Additional Information




        Michael Mah
        email: michael.mah@qsma.com
        website: www.qsma.com
        blog: www.optimalfriction.com
        twitter: @michaelcmah
        Tel: 1 413-499-0988




(#49)

				
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