VIEWS: 10 PAGES: 11

• pg 1
```									  Football pools systems really do work if they are
based on sound statistical analysis. Why do systems
work? Simply, because the performance of football
teams is not in the long run random - teams do in

Football Pool Host
There are two parts to solving the problem of how to win the football pools
The first is the statistical analysis - the designer of the system will have looked
at past results of teams and matches, and then produced a mathematical
model which explains the results with a reasonable degree of accuracy, and
enables predictions to be made on that basis Actually accuracy only needs to
be slightly better than random
In roulette, the casino makes its money on a 2-3% edge, in the long run In the
Football Pool Host football pools, that margin is adequate in the long run, but
we would expect to do much better occasionally, and win Of course, we want
to win enough to cover the stakes on those weeks we did not win, so that it
becomes a profitable exercise
The second part in the football pools problem is the coverage It is not
economic to cover every possible combination on a coupon of 49 matches -
there are 450 million ways of lining up any eight score draw matches Of
course, then may not even be eight score draw results in a given coupon
That is where 'plans' and 'perms' come in These are ways of covering say 20
selections on a coupon in such a way that when there are maybe 12-15 score
draw results on a given coupon, then we can have a reasonable expectation of
winnings if we have picked say six or eight of those draws Put simply, the plan
may cover the 20 selections in such a way that 25,000 possible 8 match
combinations are staked
This reduces the odds significantly There are a number of systems available
Some are described in books available, for example, from Amazon; others are
There are books which specialise in 'perms' and software which also does so
So, quite a choice for those who are prepared to dig around However, the
whole process is based on sound prediction of match results
To do that (assuming that you cannot afford to regularly stake thousands of
pounds or dollars), then, having bought a system, the user has to put in work
to maintain the basic data on which the analysis is based There are
organisations which offer tips and there are comprehensive sets of match data
and predictions available online (these are usually subscription only) If the
pools punter does not want to subscribe, then several hours work will be
required to prepare each entry
The final key aspect is that to be successful in this arena, then persistence is
important - that one week that an entry is skipped may be the week that would
have been the winner We are, after all, working on a statistical basis In
conclusion, football pools systems can work if they are well designed and
properly used (that means working to the numbers and not allowing one's
views on a likely match outcome to affect the selections)
If you are considering a system, then any reputable system should be
prepared to demonstrate a successful record of results
Football Pool Host

```
To top