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					  The Australian football pools season gets
  under way in April, and Australian-based
 pools coupons are published in Britain from
 mid-late May onward. Australian pools are a
  very different proposition to British pools.
Team-form based systems still work, but with
 a few tweaks. Analysis of the historical data
uncovers some interesting patterns which can
 be useful in optimising the odds for football
                 pools players.




Football Contests
So What's Different? * The game Aussie football is not soccer as we
know it It is much more physical and injury rates are much higher than in
soccer * Playing standards The best teams play well below the standard
of even an English third division team
 * Teams die and are re-born regularly and change their names regularly
* There are usually several instances of points deductions for breaking of
rules each season * The difference in performance between top and
bottom sides in a division can be massive, and when this is the case then
a lower performing team might not even show for a match, resulting in a
forfeit * With a forfeited match, a score of even 10-0 can be awarded
against the loser, which has a big impact on goal difference * Players
change teams with great regularity, and the move of just one good player
can make a massive difference to team's performance
 It really is a frontiersman's game! Whilst most serious punters accept
that 'playing to form' is much more apparent in Australian football
because of the much wider range of standards within a given league,
there are other interesting aspects too For example, the statistics show
that when a team loses at home, then the probability of winning its next
match, if it is an 'Away', is relatively high Typically, almost half of teams
avoid losing in away games following a home defeat This means that
when completing an Aussie pools coupon, the punter needs a much
stronger bias towards Away wins than would be the case in the English
football pools Home-Away-Draw Sequences More detailed analysis of
the home-lose-win sequences can be rewarding, and uncovering 'Away'
bankers for a coupon is possible - something which is unthinkable on the
English coupon (think about some of the 'certain away wins' in the
English Premiership in the most recent season, which just didn't turn out
to be as expected)
 Again, this is down to the performance range within a given league - very
wide in Australian football, and relatively much narrower in British soccer
Indeed, predicting Away wins is much more lucrative for Aussie pools
League Differences Now in the UK football pools, some people may have
a view about Football Contests biasing draw selections towards (or away
from) Scottish leagues, for example In Australian pools, there are clear
differences in performance statistics across the various leagues (there
may be up to twelve or thirteen leagues appearing on an Australian
football pools coupon); this affects the strategy for draw selection on the
Treble Chance football pools
 Fixed Odds Finally, fixed odds betting on Aussie pools can be rewarding
if enough time and effort is put into analysing the bookmakers' odds The
wide range of performance levels means that occasionally a bookie may
miscalculate odds and make it possible to lay bets across bookmakers
which are almost certain to pay That is the subject of another article
Football Contests

				
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posted:7/25/2012
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Description: soccer * Playing standards The best teams play well below the standard