Ukraine Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

Document Sample
Ukraine Food and Drink Report Q3 2012 Powered By Docstoc
					Ukraine Food and Drink Report Q3 2012
Published : July 2012                 No. of Pages : 120                    Price:US$1175




Ukraine’s GDP per capita is expected to remain one of the lowest in Europe over the decade ahead.
While there is still enormous unrealised potential in terms of political reform and economic growth, without
institutional and economic reform, Ukraine’s current economic growth model will prove unsustainable over
the coming 10 years. On the back of stagnating exports, rising import bills and a crippled banking sector,
we believe the government’s real GDP forecast of 3.9% in 2012 is overly optimistic, and maintain our
expectation for economic activity to increase by just 2.5% instead.
Headline Industry Data (local currency) ��   2012 per capita food consumption = +7.9%; forecast to 2016 =
+40.4% ��    2012 alcoholic drinks value sales = +12.5%; forecast to 2016 = +46.0% ��    2012 soft drinks value
sales = +12.6; forecast to 2016 = +43.4% ��     2012 mass grocery retail = +10.6%; forecast to 2016 =
+53.0% Key Company Trends Ukraine/Russia Cheese Dispute Benefits Danone: Food giant Danone has
said that it is benefiting from the ongoing dispute between Ukraine and Russia over cheese imports.
Officials at Danone’s unit in Ukraine told just-food.com that the ban on some Ukrainian cheese products
in Russia has pushed down milk prices. The ban has led domestic cheese producers to decrease
production which has resulted in more milk being available on the market. Russian consumer goods
watchdog Rospotrebnadzor recently barred imports of cheese made by three Ukrainian producers,
claiming the companies used excessive quantities of palm oil, a cheaper substitute for milk. Russia
accounted for 80% of Ukrainian cheese exports in 2011.
Budweiser Launched in Ukraine: In spring 2012, AB InBev subsidiary Sun InBev launched the Budweiser
brand in Ukraine, it the 87th country around the world where the beer is being sold.
The brewer also announced that Ukraine is one of its eight priority markets along with Brazil and Russia.
By the end of the year the goal is for the brand to achieve a 1% share of the local beer market and a 4%
share in the premium and super-premium segments.
Key Risks To Outlook Impact of Euro 2012: Significant attention has been afforded to Ukraine’s co-
hosting of the UEFA Euro 2012 Football Championship with Poland in June, and the potential for this to
provide an upside boost to the economy. Although we believe there is some scope for this event to assist
growth in private consumption, particularly in the services sector, the event has been plagued by poor
publicity in recent months, and has been overshadowed to some extent by the London Olympics due to
be held the month after in July. While some boost to growth is likely to be generated, we remain sceptical
towards ambitious expectations of a surge in economic activity.

Ukraine Food and Drink Market Q3 2012

Table of Content

BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Ukraine Food Industry SWOT 9
Ukraine Drink Industry SWOT . 10
Ukraine Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 11
Business Environment 12
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 12
Table: Core Views 20
CEE Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings . 21
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q312 (scores out of 10) 22
Table: CEE Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 25
Ukraine’s Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 26
Macroeconomic Outlook 27
Table: Economic Activity . 30
Industry Forecast Scenario 31
Consumer Outlook 31
Food 33
Consumption 33
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 34
Confectionery . 34
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 35
Canned And Processed Foods 36
Table: Meat . 36
Table: Jams & Jellies 37
Table: Pasta 38
Table: Snack Foods 39
Dairy 40
Table: Dairy 40
Drink . 43
Alcoholic Drinks . 43
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 44
Soft Drinks 44
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 45
Hot Drinks 46
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 46
Mass Grocery Retail 47
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts 48
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) 49
Trade . 49
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 50
Food 51
Key Industry Trends And Developments 51
Ukraine/Russia Cheese Dispute Benefits Danone 51
Nestlé Ukraine Outperforms Rest Of Europe . 51
Agriculture Continues To Attract Interest . 52
Government Calls For Greater Investment Into Agriculture 53
Dairy Industry Consolidates And Changes Direction 53
Market Overview . 55
Food Processing . 55
Key Players . 56
Confectionery . 57
Trade 58
Agriculture 59
Drink 61
Key Industry Trends And Developments 61
Budweiser Launched In Ukraine . 61
Anadolu Efes Looks For Acquisitions 61
Oasis CIS Seeks Expansion Through Acquisition. 62
Foreign Players Eye Potential Of Alcoholic Drinks Industry 62
The Beer Industry Seems To Be Growing Against The Odds 63
Ukrainian Spirits Majors Targeting Russia . 64
Market Overview . 64
Alcoholic Drinks . 64
Beer 65
Wine 66
Spirits . 67
Soft Drinks 68
Hot Drinks 70
Mass Grocery Retail 72
Key Industry Trends And Developments 72
Ukraine Consumers Turn To MGR Outlets 72
Retail Space Expanding Despite Economic Adversity 72
Private Label Gaining Importance In Light Of Economic Difficulties 73
Investment Into Hypermarkets Continues 74
Supermarket Expansion Also On Cards 74
Market Overview . 75
Leading Retailers 76
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market By Number Of Outlets . 79
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format 79
Table: Average Annual Sales By Outlet Type, 2010 80
Competitive Landscape 81
Table: Key Players In Ukraine’s Food Sector 81
Table: Key Players In Ukraine’s Drink Sector 82
Table: Key Players In Ukraine’s Mass Grocery Retail Industry 83
Company Monitor 85
Food 85
Ukrproduct 85
able: Key Players In Ukraine''s Mass Grocery Retail Industry . 83
Table: Rewards . 110
Table: Risks . 111
Table: Weighting. 111
Table: Ukraine''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) . 113
Table: Ukraine''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 114
Table: Ukraine''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020. 115
Table: Ukraine''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 115

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags: food, drink
Stats:
views:19
posted:7/24/2012
language:English
pages:3
Description: Ukraine’s GDP per capita is expected to remain one of the lowest in Europe over the decade ahead. While there is still enormous unrealised potential in terms of political reform and economic growth, without institutional and economic reform, Ukraine’s current economic growth model will prove unsustainable over the coming 10 years. On the back of stagnating exports, rising import bills and a crippled banking sector, we believe the government’s real GDP forecast of 3.9% in 2012 is overly optimistic, and maintain our expectation for economic activity to increase by just 2.5% instead.