prediction project

							You’re Only as Old as You Feel

Introduction
Do you think you may live to be 100 years old? In the United States the number of older people
is increasing. In 1970, 9.8% of the people in the United States were 65 years of age or older,
while by 2000, the percent for that age category had increased to 12.4%. In California in 2000,
people 65 years and older represented 10.7% of the total population. The circle graph below
shows the percent of the population of California for various age categories in 2000.




   In this project, you will explore how equations, functions, and graphs can help represent aging
and population growth.
The Task
In your new job as an advisor to the governor of your state, you have been asked to prepare a
portfolio or Web page to inform the residents of your state about the changing age structure of
people in the United States. Your portfolio or Web page needs to contain the following
information:

      a prediction for the age structure of the U.S. for the year 2050;
      a prediction of how life in the U.S. will change due to the aging of Americans;
      support for the predictions using mathematics, graphs, tables, and/or facts that you find so
       that the residents of your state will have confidence in your predictions.



The Process
To successfully complete this project, you will need to complete the following items.

      Find data about the age structure of the United States for the 20th century. For example,
       how many people were 65 or over in 1900? How many people were under 5 in 1960?
       How many people were 25-34 in 1980? For help, try these Web sites.
       www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0110384.html
       www.census.gov
       www.statistics.com
       www.prb.org
       www.elderweb.com
       www.agingstats.gov
      Devise a method you can use to predict the age structure of the population in the future.
      Use the data on age and population to prepare some type of graph(s) or table(s) to
       visually display your findings.
      Find another set of data, of your choice, that relates to aging. Display the data in a graph
       or table and include a brief description of the data.
      Explain your findings and describe the changes that you predict in the U.S. due to an
       aging population.
      Be creative. Add some additional data, information, or even pictures to your portfolio or
       Web page. For other data and information, try these Web sites.
       www.usatoday.com
       www.ssa.gov
       www.yahoo.com
       www.time.com/time/
       www.msnbc.com/news/NW-front_Front.asp
Guidance
Here are some additional questions and ideas you may want to consider for adding information
to your project.

   1. How has the average life expectancy for people in the United States changed during the
      20th century?
   2. How did the leading causes of death change during the 20th century? (Consider both
      diseases and accidents.) Why have these changed?
   3. How does Social Security help retired people to meet their financial needs? In what other
      ways do retired people find the money to cover expenses?
   4. How might products, services, and advertising change as the age of the population
      changes?
   5. Will the elderly work longer? Will they be able to compete in the job market with
      younger people?
   6. In the year 2050, you may be nearing retirement age. How will your lifestyle differ from
      the lifestyle of your parents or grandparents when they retired?
   7. Consider finding data about the age distribution of the population in another country or
      worldwide. Compare this data to U.S. data.

Conclusion
Here are some ideas for concluding your project.

      Present your project to your class or at a family night.
      Present the information on a Web page. Have other students critique your project and
       help you to make improvements to your project.
      Write a one-page summary of your project, including what you have learned from
       researching this topic. How has it changed your ideas about the elderly?